Jackson Chourio — OGILVIE

Jackson ChourioCF Milwaukee Brewers

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 199 lbs MLB BB +10%HR +7% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 5.3 · 2030

wRC+†vL 131117vR 111

AVG/OBP/SLG.270 / .319 / .446

PA654

HR22

SB27

K%22

BB%6

xwOBA.307

Barrel%9.7%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

50→50

SPD

60→60

EYE

42↘40

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.9peak

2030

Barrel%

609.7

xwOBA

490.307

Avg EV

5289.3

Whiff%

360.126

Chase%

100.406

Speed

9029.2

Bat Spd

7473.9

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$7M	+3.8	$30M	+$23M
2027	Arb-2	$8M	+4.6	$38M	+$30M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+4.9	$42M	+$32M
2029	Arb-4	$15M	+5.2	$45M	+$30M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+5.3	$48M	+$31M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$17M	+5.3	$49M	+$32M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+5.0	$48M	+$23M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$25M	+4.7	$46M	+$21M
Totals		$124M		$346M	+$223M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	2 teams	242	217	46	6	1	5	17	56	3	8	3	.212	.278	.318	.596	.106	.256	23	7	.266	62	-10	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
2022	18	A	4 teams	526	492	104	25	3	19	26	197	3	17	6	.211	.255	.390	.646	.179	.304	37	5	.277	70	-18	+1	+0	+2	+15	-0.0
2023	19	AA	3 teams	658	615	155	32	4	20	33	170	5	47	10	.252	.296	.415	.710	.163	.314	26	5	.306	92	-6	+5	+0	+2	+19	2.1
2024	20	MLB	2 teams	595	549	152	31	4	19	40	126	3	22	7	.277	.329	.452	.781	.175	.328	21	7	.333	113	+9	+2	+3	-6	+17	2.5
2025	21	MLB	3 teams	645	601	158	38	2	21	33	138	4	22	7	.263	.306	.438	.743	.175	.306	21	5	.315	99	-0	+2	-0	+2	+18	2.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	MLB	MIL	654	605	164	34	3	22	40	141	4	27	5	.271	.320	.446	.767	.175	.319	22	6	.338	117	+13	+3	+1	+2	+19	3.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB	MIL	674	622	171	35	3	24	43	142	4	29	5	.275	.326	.457	.782	.182	.319	21	6	.344	121	+16	+4	+1	+2	+19	4.3
2028	24	MLB	MIL	686	631	174	36	3	25	46	143	4	29	5	.276	.329	.461	.790	.185	.319	21	7	.348	124	+19	+4	+1	+2	+19	4.6
2029	25	MLB	MIL	691	634	176	36	3	26	48	143	4	30	5	.278	.332	.467	.799	.189	.320	21	7	.351	127	+21	+4	+1	+2	+20	4.9
2030	26	MLB	MIL	691	633	176	36	3	26	49	142	4	30	5	.278	.334	.468	.801	.190	.320	21	7	.353	128	+22	+4	+1	+2	+20	5.0
2031	27	MLB	MIL	686	627	174	35	3	26	50	142	4	29	4	.278	.335	.467	.802	.190	.320	21	7	.353	128	+22	+4	+1	+2	+19	5.0
2032	28	MLB	MIL	678	619	172	35	3	26	50	142	4	28	4	.278	.336	.470	.806	.192	.320	21	7	.352	127	+21	+4	+0	+2	+19	4.8
2033	29	MLB	MIL	666	608	168	34	3	25	49	141	4	26	3	.276	.334	.465	.800	.189	.319	21	7	.350	126	+19	+4	-1	+2	+19	4.5
2034	30	MLB	MIL	654	597	163	33	3	24	48	141	4	24	3	.273	.331	.459	.790	.186	.318	22	7	.347	123	+17	+4	-1	+2	+19	4.1
2035	31	MLB	MIL	639	584	158	32	3	23	47	140	3	20	2	.271	.328	.454	.782	.183	.317	22	7	.343	120	+15	+3	-2	+2	+18	3.7
2036	32	MLB	MIL	620	567	152	31	2	22	45	139	3	17	1	.268	.325	.446	.771	.178	.316	22	7	.338	117	+12	+3	-3	+2	+18	3.2
2037	33	MLB	MIL	590	539	141	28	2	20	43	137	3	14	0	.262	.320	.432	.752	.171	.314	23	7	.332	112	+8	+3	-4	+2	+17	2.7
2038	34	MLB	MIL	541	495	127	25	2	17	39	130	2	11	0	.257	.313	.418	.732	.162	.313	24	7	.325	107	+4	+2	-4	+2	+15	2.0
2039	35	MLB	MIL	484	445	112	22	2	15	34	121	2	9	0	.252	.308	.411	.719	.160	.310	25	7	.317	100	+0	+2	-5	+2	+14	1.3
2040	36	MLB	MIL	422	388	95	18	2	12	29	110	2	7	0	.245	.301	.394	.695	.149	.307	26	7	.307	93	-3	+1	-6	+2	+12	0.6
2041	37	MLB	MIL	356	328	77	15	1	9	24	96	1	6	0	.235	.289	.369	.658	.134	.303	27	7	.296	85	-6	+1	-7	+1	+10	-0.0
2042	38	MLB	MIL	285	263	60	11	1	7	19	79	1	4	0	.228	.283	.357	.640	.129	.298	28	7	.285	76	-8	+1	-7	+1	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			12683	11659	3075	628	56	433	852	2916	71	456	75	.264	.318	.439	.756	.175	.315	23	7	.331	112	+166	+61	-32	+37	+359	60.4
/ 162G	—			650	598	157	32	3	22	44	149	4	23	4	.263	.318	.436	.754	.174	.314	23	7	.331	112	+9	+3	-2	+2	+18	3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 2	189	159	47	7	1	5	23	28	3	8	3	.296	.395	.447	.841	.151	.323	15	12	.371	142	+9	+0	—	—	+5	1.5
2021	17	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	53	49	10	1	0	1	3	17	0	0	0	.204	.250	.286	.536	.082	.290	32	6	.240	42	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2022	18	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	26	23	2	1	0	0	2	11	0	2	1	.087	.160	.130	.290	.043	.154	42	8	.138	-36	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2022	18	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	142	127	32	6	0	8	11	31	2	4	1	.252	.321	.488	.810	.236	.267	22	8	.351	126	+4	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2022	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	271	250	81	23	5	12	19	76	1	10	2	.324	.374	.600	.974	.276	.423	28	7	.419	179	+24	+1	—	—	+8	3.4
2022	18	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	87	82	21	5	0	1	4	16	0	1	2	.256	.291	.354	.644	.098	.308	18	5	.286	77	-2	-1	—	—	+2	-0.0
2023	19	AAA	Nashville Sounds	24	21	7	3	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	.333	.391	.476	.867	.143	.333	4	8	.369	141	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2023	19	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	559	510	143	23	3	22	41	103	4	43	9	.280	.339	.467	.805	.186	.311	18	7	.354	129	+18	+5	—	—	+16	4.0
2023	19	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	75	66	25	5	1	1	8	8	1	3	1	.379	.453	.530	.984	.152	.421	11	11	.436	192	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
2024	20	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	573	528	145	29	4	21	39	121	3	22	7	.275	.328	.464	.792	.189	.320	21	7	.348	124	+16	+2	+3	-6	+16	3.1
2024	20	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	22	18	7	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	.389	.500	.444	.944	.056	.412	5	18	.432	189	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	21	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	589	549	148	35	4	21	30	121	3	21	7	.270	.311	.463	.774	.193	.308	21	5	.336	115	+10	+1	-0	+2	+17	3.1
2025	21	AAA	Nashville Sounds	21	19	1	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	.053	.143	.105	.248	.053	.091	38	10	.128	-44	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	21	INTL	Aguilas del Zulia	35	30	12	2	0	1	4	4	1	1	0	.400	.486	.567	1.052	.167	.440	11	11	.466	215	+5	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1162	1077	293	64	8	42	69	242	6	43	14	.272	.319	.463	.783	.191	.313	21	6	.342	120	+26	+3	+3	-4	+33	6.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jackson Chourio (OGILVIE)	22	55	50	60	40	.270/.319/.446	.176	.319	22	27	22%	6%	117	+3.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Michael Harris II 2023 · MLB	22	54→57	50→55	58→55	42	.266/.313/.433	.167	.335	17	24	25%	5%	110	+2.4	.269/.309/.438	.169	.317	19	19	21%	5%	109	+2.4	.264/.298/.428	.164	.301	20	18	19%	4%	100	+1.6
●Luis Robert Jr. 2021 · MLB	23	47→57	54→60	56→60	38	.238/.290/.419	.181	.318	22	24	32%	5%	98	+1.6	.276/.324/.471	.195	.337	24	18	25%	5%	125	+3.5	.284/.330/.497	.213	.339	28	17	24%	5%	131	+2.8
✕Brett Lawrie 2012 · MLB	22	51→56	50→55	57→55	44	.253/.304/.423	.170	.306	15	19	22%	6%	103	+1.9	.259/.314/.413	.154	.297	16	14	18%	6%	105	+2.1	.256/.312/.396	.140	.285	16	10	16%	6%	98	+1.1
●Julio Rodríguez 2023 · MLB	22	57→56	58→60	55	45	.286/.346/.491	.205	.353	26	24	26%	7%	139	+4.4	.279/.335/.471	.192	.340	25	26	25%	7%	130	+3.8	.275/.331/.461	.186	.329	25	27	24%	6%	120	+3.5
●Bo Bichette 2021 · MLB	23	53→63	51→60	52→55	44	.265/.310/.440	.175	.319	17	21	23%	6%	111	+2.5	.295/.338/.475	.180	.349	22	16	21%	6%	131	+3.9	.305/.346/.482	.177	.358	22	13	20%	5%	135	+4.6
★Carlos Correa 2016 · MLB	21	54→62	51→60	55	50	.270/.333/.444	.174	.314	18	19	20%	8%	121	+3.2	.276/.352/.465	.189	.326	21	12	21%	10%	134	+4.1	.274/.359/.461	.187	.326	21	7	22%	11%	129	+3.4
✕Andrés Giménez 2023 · MLB	24	54→60	52→50	56→55	43	.269/.335/.437	.168	.325	19	22	23%	6%	121	+3.2	.254/.315/.386	.132	.295	14	24	19%	5%	99	+1.7	.241/.301/.348	.107	.278	11	26	17%	5%	80	+0.3
●Ozzie Albies 2019 · MLB	22	52→59	49→60	56→55	45	.258/.303/.418	.160	.296	15	17	19%	6%	102	+1.8	.271/.322/.466	.195	.303	21	14	18%	7%	122	+3.3	.271/.326/.478	.207	.300	23	15	18%	7%	122	+2.7
●B.J. Upton 2008 · MLB	23	55→60	49→60	56→60	51	.267/.341/.417	.150	.337	16	32	25%	10%	118	+3.0	.258/.346/.405	.147	.332	13	35	24%	12%	117	+2.9	.243/.319/.434	.191	.304	21	35	26%	10%	108	+2.4
★Bobby Witt Jr. 2023 · MLB	23	46→56	55→65	55→60	42	.241/.290/.432	.191	.284	23	25	24%	6%	101	+1.8	.276/.327/.485	.209	.308	24	31	19%	6%	130	+3.8	.291/.347/.510	.219	.319	25	34	17%	7%	137	+5.0
✕Anthony Volpe 2023 · AAA	22	42→51	54→55	59→55	48	.223/.304/.414	.191	.270	21	29	26%	9%	102	+1.9	.225/.290/.385	.160	.283	16	24	26%	8%	89	+0.9	.225/.287/.379	.154	.282	15	22	25%	7%	82	+0.5
★Matt Kemp 2007 · MLB	22	53→63	53→65	57→55	41	.269/.311/.449	.181	.332	20	22	25%	5%	114	+2.7	.289/.333/.461	.172	.355	18	25	23%	6%	125	+3.5	.288/.356/.502	.214	.344	27	28	23%	9%	135	+4.7
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	54→63	47→50	54→55	47	.269/.331/.403	.135	.312	15	19	19%	6%	110	+2.4	.261/.324/.385	.124	.312	12	15	19%	7%	102	+1.9	.252/.317/.372	.120	.303	11	13	20%	7%	93	+0.9
●Delmon Young 2007 · MLB	21	56→61	50→55	55	38	.280/.307/.440	.160	.329	17	23	21%	3%	109	+2.4	.283/.316/.413	.130	.337	13	13	19%	4%	105	+2.1	.288/.328/.443	.155	.326	17	8	17%	5%	112	+2.4
●Rickie Weeks Jr. 2006 · MLB	23	49→58	53→55	59→55	49	.246/.337/.431	.184	.302	20	19	24%	9%	120	+3.1	.251/.352/.417	.166	.310	16	23	23%	10%	123	+3.3	.253/.353/.435	.182	.308	20	13	23%	10%	124	+2.8
●Howie Kendrick 2006 · AA	23	59→64	53→55	54→50	42	.295/.332/.482	.187	.330	19	18	17%	4%	131	+3.9	.295/.328/.452	.157	.343	13	15	18%	3%	121	+3.2	.283/.327/.442	.159	.325	15	15	17%	5%	114	+2.6
●Royce Lewis 2023 · MLB	24	50→49	52→60	55→50	45	.253/.312/.425	.172	.306	19	22	23%	7%	108	+2.3	.261/.317/.468	.207	.304	29	15	24%	7%	121	+3.2	.244/.300/.437	.193	.276	28	12	23%	7%	102	+1.1
●Corbin Carroll 2023 · MLB	22	50→54	58→60	61→60	47	.252/.332/.476	.224	.331	24	25	30%	9%	129	+3.7	.251/.333/.462	.211	.295	23	35	22%	9%	126	+3.5	.245/.332/.462	.217	.278	24	37	21%	10%	121	+3.5
●Elijah Dukes 2006 · AA	22	50→51	51→55	50	45	.253/.302/.417	.163	.299	19	16	22%	6%	102	+1.8	.248/.328/.420	.172	.291	19	14	21%	9%	113	+2.6	.236/.344/.412	.176	.277	18	13	21%	13%	114	+1.7
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→49	55→60	54→55	47	.227/.295/.423	.196	.266	22	20	24%	8%	101	+1.8	.234/.301/.436	.202	.274	23	18	23%	8%	106	+2.2	.239/.321/.424	.186	.290	20	17	24%	10%	107	+2.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)