Elly De La Cruz

SS Cincinnati Reds

Age 25 S/R 6'6" / 200 lbs MLB HR +16%BB +6% Svc 3.686 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

MLB40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	22	MLBCIN	696	.259/.339/.471	25	67	121	6.2
2025	23	MLBCIN	699	.264/.337/.440	22	37	108	3.6
2026	24	MLBCIN	636	.283/.367/.515	30	30	140	5.5
2027PROJ	25	MLBCIN	610	.274/.352/.506	30	35	134	4.9
2028PROJ	26	MLBCIN	614	.274/.352/.505	30	35	134	4.9
2029PROJ	27	MLBCIN	614	.273/.351/.503	30	34	133	4.8

Last 3 seasons WAR 15.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 14.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.686First FA2030

2027Arb-1$11M2028Arb-2$19M2029Arb-3$28M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

Bat Spd84

Barrel%82

xwOBA79

Speed73

Form.280/.374/.550 ▲▲ rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .269/.345/.490

CompsJazz Chisholm Jr. (age 26) · Julio Rodríguez (age 23) · Grady Sizemore (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 134134vR 134

AVG/OBP/SLG.274 / .352 / .506

PA610

HR30

SB35

K%27

BB%10

BABIP338

ISO233

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$62M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

550.256

POWER55

Barrel%

8213.0

Avg EV

9092.4

Bat Spd

8474.9

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7328.4

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%28%▼28% over 60 PA (45d) · proj 27%

BB%13%▲▲16% over 115 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.269▲▲.351 over 97 AB (60d) · proj .220

HR/BB9.8%▲▲14.3% over 63 BBE (60d) · proj 7.2%

BABIP.344▲.463 over 54 BIP (60d) · proj .336

SLASH.280/.374/.550▲▲proj .269/.345/.490

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1512 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

461

1051

—

wRC+

136

▶▶R

wOBA

300

369

▶▶R

ISO

146

225

▶▶R

BABIP

316

360

▶R

30.6%

27.7%

▶R

BB%

6.5%

10.0%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.686 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$11M	+5.3	$64M	+$53M
2028	Arb-2	$19M	+4.9	$55M	+$37M
2029	Arb-3	$28M	+4.8	$49M	+$26M
Totals		$58M		$168M	+$117M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	186	165	47	11	1	1	14	45	4	3	6	285	355	382	737	97	380	24	8	330	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	210	197	53	12	7	5	10	65	1	8	5	269	308	477	785	208	372	31	5	338	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK	ACL Reds	—	55	50	20	6	2	3	4	15	1	2	0	400	455	780	1.235	380	531	27	7	524	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	207	190	58	17	3	8	16	64	0	19	2	305	359	553	912	247	420	31	8	394	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	306	281	85	14	6	20	24	94	1	28	4	302	359	609	968	306	389	31	8	417	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	101	84	24	4	2	1	16	27	0	9	4	286	400	417	817	131	404	27	16	366	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	427	388	91	15	7	13	35	144	2	35	8	235	301	410	711	175	336	34	8	314	91	-4	+4	+5	+7	+9	2.0
2023	21	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	186	158	47	11	3	12	26	50	1	11	6	297	400	633	1.033	335	361	27	14	440	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	696	618	160	36	10	25	69	218	6	67	16	259	339	471	810	212	359	31	10	356	121	+17	+7	+14	+7	+15	6.2
2025	23	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	699	629	166	31	7	22	67	181	2	37	8	264	337	440	777	176	337	26	10	345	108	+7	+4	+1	+7	+15	3.6
2026	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	636	559	158	30	5	30	72	175	2	30	8	283	367	515	882	233	359	28	11	385	140	+30	+3	+1	+7	+14	5.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2458	2194	575	112	29	90	243	718	12	169	40	262	339	463	802	201	348	29	10	353	125	+73	+18	+21	+28	+53	19.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	186	169	29	6	1	0	10	55	4	3	6	172	235	219	454	47	242	30	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	210	200	43	9	6	4	7	85	1	8	5	215	245	380	625	165	341	40	3	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	—	55	51	14	4	1	2	3	22	1	2	0	275	327	510	837	235	414	40	5	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	207	195	50	14	3	6	11	77	0	19	2	256	296	451	747	195	382	37	5	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	306	287	70	9	5	15	18	114	1	28	4	244	291	467	758	223	345	37	6	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	427	391	90	15	7	12	32	144	2	35	8	230	292	396	688	166	336	34	7	303	91	-4	+4	+5	+7	+9	2.0
2023	21	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	186	165	41	10	3	8	19	60	1	11	6	248	330	491	821	242	337	32	10	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	696	620	159	37	10	23	67	218	6	67	16	256	335	460	794	203	359	31	10	346	121	+17	+7	+14	+7	+15	6.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	699	639	164	32	7	20	57	181	2	37	8	257	319	423	742	166	337	26	8	328	108	+7	+4	+1	+7	+15	3.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	636	560	157	31	5	28	71	175	2	30	8	280	363	504	867	223	359	28	11	375	140	+30	+3	+1	+7	+14	5.5
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	186	169	29	6	1	0	10	55	4	3	6	172	235	219	454	47	250	30	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	186	165	47	11	1	1	14	45	4	3	6	285	355	382	737	97	380	24	8	330	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	265	251	57	13	7	6	10	107	2	10	5	227	262	406	669	179	364	40	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	265	247	73	18	9	8	14	80	2	10	5	296	338	538	877	243	404	30	5	377	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	614	577	143	28	9	25	34	229	1	56	10	248	291	458	748	210	363	37	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	614	555	167	35	11	29	56	185	1	56	10	301	366	560	926	259	402	30	9	401	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	613	556	131	25	10	20	51	204	3	46	14	236	303	424	728	189	332	33	8	318	101	+1	+4	+5	+7	+13	3.0
2023	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	613	546	138	26	10	25	61	194	3	46	14	253	331	474	806	222	343	32	10	352	101	+1	+4	+5	+7	+13	3.0
2024	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	696	620	159	37	10	23	67	218	6	67	16	256	335	460	794	203	358	31	10	346	121	+17	+7	+14	+7	+15	6.2
2024	22	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	696	618	160	36	10	25	69	218	6	67	16	259	339	471	810	212	359	31	10	356	121	+17	+7	+14	+7	+15	6.2
2025	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	699	639	164	32	7	20	57	181	2	37	8	257	319	423	742	166	328	26	8	328	108	+7	+4	+1	+7	+15	3.6
2025	23	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	699	629	166	31	7	22	67	181	2	37	8	264	337	440	777	176	337	26	10	345	108	+7	+4	+1	+7	+15	3.6
2026	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	636	560	157	31	5	28	71	175	2	30	8	280	363	504	867	223	358	28	11	375	140	+30	+3	+1	+7	+14	5.5
2026	24	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	636	559	158	30	5	30	72	175	2	30	8	283	367	515	882	233	359	28	11	385	140	+30	+3	+1	+7	+14	5.5
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	186	170	29	6	1	0	10	55	4	3	6	171	235	218	453	47	242	30	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	265	251	57	13	7	6	10	107	2	10	5	227	262	406	669	179	356	40	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	614	574	143	28	9	25	34	229	1	56	10	249	291	460	751	211	360	37	6	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	613	554	131	25	10	20	51	204	3	46	14	236	303	426	729	190	336	33	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	696	618	159	37	10	23	67	218	6	67	16	257	335	461	796	204	359	31	10	346	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	699	635	164	32	7	20	57	181	2	37	8	258	319	425	745	167	337	26	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	636	558	157	31	5	28	71	175	2	30	8	281	363	505	869	224	359	28	11	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	696	618	159	37	10	23	67	218	6	67	16	257	335	461	796	204	359	31	10	346	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	699	635	164	32	7	20	57	181	2	37	8	258	319	425	745	167	337	26	8	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	636	558	157	31	5	28	71	175	2	30	8	281	363	505	869	224	359	28	11	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	645	571	155	28	6	29	66	175	3	37	7	270	348	490	838	220	336	27	10	366	134	+26	+5	-1	+7	+14	5.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	610	541	148	26	5	30	62	165	2	35	6	274	352	506	857	232	338	27	10	373	134	+24	+5	-1	+7	+13	4.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	614	544	146	26	5	28	63	166	2	35	6	270	348	490	838	220	336	27	10	366	134	+25	+5	-1	+7	+13	4.9
2029	27	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	614	544	145	26	5	27	63	167	2	34	6	268	347	487	834	219	335	27	10	364	133	+24	+4	-1	+7	+13	4.8
2030	28	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	614	544	145	26	5	27	63	169	2	31	6	267	345	482	828	216	334	28	10	362	131	+23	+4	-2	+7	+13	4.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	610	541	142	26	5	26	62	169	2	27	5	263	341	475	816	212	331	28	10	357	128	+20	+3	-2	+7	+13	4.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	587	520	135	24	5	25	60	165	2	22	4	259	337	465	802	207	328	28	10	352	124	+17	+3	-3	+6	+13	3.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	565	502	127	23	4	23	57	161	1	15	3	253	331	454	785	200	322	28	10	344	119	+13	+2	-4	+6	+12	3.0
2034	32	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	550	489	121	21	4	22	55	159	1	10	3	246	323	439	762	192	316	29	10	335	113	+9	+1	-4	+6	+12	2.3
2035	33	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	473	423	101	17	3	18	46	140	1	4	2	239	315	422	737	182	310	30	10	325	106	+4	+0	-5	+5	+10	1.4
2036	34	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	416	373	86	14	3	15	40	126	0	1	1	230	305	401	706	171	301	30	10	313	98	-1	-0	-6	+4	+9	0.7
2037	35	MLB MLE	CIN	100%	348	312	68	11	2	11	33	108	0	0	1	220	294	378	672	158	292	31	9	299	89	-5	-0	-6	+4	+8	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	614	544	149	26	5	30	63	166	2	35	6	274	352	505	857	232	338	27	10	373	134	+25	+5	-1	+7	+13	4.9
2029	27	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	614	544	149	26	5	30	63	167	2	34	6	273	351	503	853	230	337	27	10	372	133	+24	+4	-1	+7	+13	4.8
2030	28	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	614	544	147	26	5	29	63	169	2	31	6	271	349	498	847	227	337	28	10	369	131	+23	+4	-2	+7	+13	4.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	610	541	144	25	5	28	62	169	2	27	5	267	345	490	835	223	333	28	10	364	128	+20	+3	-2	+7	+13	4.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	587	520	138	24	5	27	60	165	2	22	4	263	340	480	820	217	330	28	10	358	124	+17	+3	-3	+6	+13	3.6
2033	31	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	565	502	129	22	4	25	57	161	1	15	3	257	334	468	802	211	325	28	10	351	119	+13	+2	-4	+6	+12	3.0
2034	32	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	550	489	122	21	4	23	55	159	1	10	3	250	327	452	779	202	318	29	10	342	113	+9	+1	-4	+6	+12	2.3
2035	33	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	473	423	102	17	3	19	46	140	1	4	2	243	318	435	753	192	311	30	10	331	106	+4	+0	-5	+5	+10	1.4
2036	34	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	416	373	88	14	3	16	40	126	0	1	1	233	308	413	721	180	303	30	10	319	98	-1	-0	-6	+4	+9	0.7
2037	35	MLB CTX	CIN	100%	348	309	69	10	2	12	33	108	3	0	1	225	306	394	699	169	299	31	9	311	89	-5	-0	-6	+4	+8	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7849	6983	1812	323	70	329	785	2248	28	348	77	259	337	467	804	208	334	29	10	353	116	+200	+39	-13	+86	+170	49.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	150	27	6	27	65	186	2	29	6	260	336	467	804	208	334	29	10	353	116	+17	+3	-1	+7	+14	4.1
Career	—	MLE		—	9710	8705	2201	412	95	371	904	2864	35	463	110	253	326	450	775	197	332	29	9	340	116	+225	+43	-14	+93	+183	54.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	148	28	6	25	61	192	2	31	7	254	327	451	778	197	333	30	9	340	116	+17	+3	-1	+7	+14	4.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAALouisville Bats · 186 PAwOBA .430 → .353 (−77)K% 26.9% → 32.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.88%	÷1.004	×1.200	—	—	32.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.98%	÷0.993	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.20%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.53%
Singles /BIP	19.44%	÷0.998	×0.930	×1.006	×1.050	19.14%
Doubles /BIP	10.19%	÷0.938	×0.830	×1.006	×1.050	9.52%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.042	×0.970	×1.006	×1.050	2.73%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷1.054	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.75%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 100, 2B 88, 3B 108, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .430 → .353; ISO .335 → .257; BABIP .361 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 306 PAwOBA .404 → .318 (−85)K% 30.7% → 37.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.72%	÷1.047	×1.270	—	—	37.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.52%	÷0.958	×0.710	—	×1.042	5.81%
HBP% /PA	0.33%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.27%
Singles /BIP	24.06%	÷1.002	×0.920	×1.020	×1.042	23.48%
Doubles /BIP	7.49%	÷1.217	×0.810	×1.020	×1.042	5.30%
Triples /BIP	3.21%	÷1.028	×0.850	×1.020	×1.042	2.82%
Home runs /BIP	10.70%	÷1.058	×0.800	—	×1.042	8.43%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .404 → .318; ISO .306 → .224; BABIP .389 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 207 PAwOBA .384 → .319 (−65)K% 30.9% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.92%	÷1.010	×1.220	—	—	37.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.25%	÷1.019	×0.680	—	×1.050	5.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.81%	÷1.002	×0.920	×0.979	×1.050	22.47%
Doubles /BIP	13.49%	÷1.084	×0.910	×0.979	×1.050	11.65%
Triples /BIP	2.38%	÷0.912	×0.880	×0.979	×1.050	2.36%
Home runs /BIP	6.35%	÷0.990	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.38%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 100, 2B 117, 3B 82, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .384 → .319; ISO .247 → .204; BABIP .420 → .382. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 210 PAwOBA .332 → .265 (−67)K% 31.0% → 40.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.95%	÷1.038	×1.360	—	—	40.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.009	×0.690	—	×1.045	3.40%
HBP% /PA	0.48%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.39%
Singles /BIP	21.97%	÷1.003	×0.920	×0.979	×1.045	20.61%
Doubles /BIP	9.09%	÷1.003	×0.830	×0.979	×1.045	7.70%
Triples /BIP	5.30%	÷0.944	×0.910	×0.979	×1.045	5.23%
Home runs /BIP	3.79%	÷0.969	×0.800	—	×1.045	3.27%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 89, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .332 → .265; ISO .208 → .166; BABIP .372 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Reds · 55 PAwOBA .509 → .338 (−171)K% 27.3% → 39.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷0.987	×1.440	—	—	39.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷0.995	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.56%
HBP% /PA	1.82%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.32%
Singles /BIP	25.71%	÷0.972	×0.820	—	×1.008	21.85%
Doubles /BIP	17.14%	÷0.981	×0.720	—	×1.008	12.68%
Triples /BIP	5.71%	÷0.990	×0.720	—	×1.008	4.19%
Home runs /BIP	8.57%	÷1.026	×0.780	—	×1.008	6.57%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 98, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .509 → .338; ISO .380 → .244; BABIP .531 → .414. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 DSLDSL Reds · 186 PAwOBA .325 → .207 (−117)K% 24.2% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.19%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	29.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.53%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.022	5.39%
HBP% /PA	2.15%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.54%
Singles /BIP	28.33%	÷1.000	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	18.72%
Doubles /BIP	9.17%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	5.34%
Triples /BIP	0.83%	÷1.000	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	0.83%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.40%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .325 → .207; ISO .097 → .054; BABIP .380 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryne Sandberg'81-'97 * career totals — 15 seasons, 9,282 PA	14.0	9,282	282	344	280*	342*	480*	+33	+154	70.9	60.9
/162	664	20	25	+2.4	+11.0	5.1	pk7: 51
#2Roberto Alomar'88-'04 * career totals — 17 seasons, 10,400 PA	15.7	10,400	210	474	291*	361*	446*	+34	+13	67.5	56.1
/162	664	13	30	+2.2	+0.8	4.3	pk7: 45
#3Scott Rolen'96-'12 * career totals — 17 seasons, 8,518 PA	12.8	8,518	316	118	271*	352*	479*	+30	+75	64.8	53.9
/162	664	25	9	+2.4	+5.8	5.1	pk7: 43
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 15 projected seasons	12.7	8,459	339	384	259	333	463	+85	+102	58.8	48.3
/162	664	27	30	+6.7	+8.0	4.6	pk7: 38
#4José Reyeslast yr '18 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,240 PA	12.4	8,240	145	517	283	334	427	+83	+62	56.0	48.3
/162	664	12	42	+6.7	+5.0	4.5	pk7: 40
#5Ian Kinslerlast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,299 PA	12.5	8,299	257	243	269	337	440	+30	+66	53.0	44.4
/162	664	21	19	+2.4	+5.3	4.2	pk7: 36
#6Rafael Furcal'00-'14 * career totals — 13 seasons, 7,236 PA	10.9	7,236	113	314	272*	335*	394*	+76	+92	40.9	35.6
/162	664	10	29	+7.0	+8.5	3.8	pk7: 30

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elly De La Cruz (OGILVIE)	25	50	55	60	50	267/345/485	218	336	27	35	27%	10%	134	+3.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2024 · MLB	26	49→50	60	58→60	44	257/317/477	219	320	29	28	29%	8%	121	+2.9	246/316/437	191	304	25	34	27%	9%	112	+2.2	238/315/421	183	295	25	40	27%	9%	108	+1.8
●Julio Rodríguez 2024 · MLB	23	54→55	59→60	55	44	281/335/493	212	337	27	27	25%	6%	131	+3.6	269/321/449	180	322	24	24	24%	6%	116	+2.5	263/317/432	170	311	23	23	23%	6%	111	+2.4
●Grady Sizemore 2009 · MLB	26	53→58	57→60	58→55	57	270/362/483	213	303	23	25	19%	11%	138	+4.1	247/329/433	186	288	20	17	21%	10%	115	+2.4	235/314/412	177	282	18	11	22%	9%	105	+0.9
★Carlos Beltrán 2004 · MLB	27	56→60	58→65	64→60	56	289/361/501	213	312	24	32	16%	10%	141	+4.3	268/349/495	227	279	27	26	15%	11%	136	+3.9	270/357/520	250	276	31	20	16%	12%	146	+5.1
★Bobby Witt Jr. 2024 · MLB	24	50→60	58→65	60	44	264/309/471	207	294	25	33	20%	6%	116	+2.5	296/347/514	218	327	24	31	17%	7%	141	+4.3	300/356/513	212	333	23	34	17%	7%	144	+5.1
●Corbin Carroll 2024 · MLB	23	52→53	58→60	67→60	50	267/345/483	216	314	24	38	23%	9%	132	+3.6	240/324/457	217	274	24	29	21%	10%	119	+2.7	229/318/452	222	260	24	26	22%	10%	116	+2.8
●Fernando Tatis Jr. 2024 · MLB	25	51→57	61→70	56→55	50	272/337/498	227	310	29	25	23%	9%	133	+3.7	275/346/469	194	317	24	23	20%	9%	130	+3.5	278/354/464	186	318	23	27	19%	9%	132	+3.7
★Preston Wilson 2001 · MLB	27	51→52	59→60	54→55	46	262/328/476	214	325	27	28	28%	8%	125	+3.2	263/328/476	213	308	27	21	23%	8%	125	+3.2	264/331/484	220	301	28	18	22%	8%	129	+3.3
★Ronald Acuña Jr. 2023 · MLB	25	53→63	56→70	53→65	54	267/359/465	198	323	24	28	24%	11%	133	+3.7	298/385/509	211	334	26	39	18%	11%	152	+5.1	307/402/532	225	338	29	42	17%	13%	165	+4.6
●Luis Robert Jr. 2022 · MLB	24	55→57	57→65	54→60	42	279/331/483	204	345	25	19	26%	6%	128	+3.3	265/310/460	195	322	25	19	25%	5%	115	+2.4	250/295/446	195	308	26	22	28%	5%	107	+1.5
★Matt Kemp 2010 · MLB	25	58→65	53→65	58→55	46	291/337/470	179	345	20	28	22%	6%	126	+3.2	283/337/495	212	338	26	23	24%	7%	132	+3.7	286/342/510	224	340	29	22	24%	7%	140	+4.3
★Hanley Ramirez 2009 · MLB	25	59→66	58→60	59→60	55	303/374/524	221	331	25	34	16%	10%	152	+5.1	304/370/496	192	337	22	27	16%	9%	144	+4.5	302/368/479	177	335	20	28	16%	8%	140	+4.0
●Carlos González 2012 · MLB	26	55→60	58→65	55	47	285/338/498	213	322	26	22	20%	7%	133	+3.7	273/330/476	203	322	24	20	22%	8%	126	+3.2	260/317/451	191	299	24	2	21%	7%	117	+2.5
★Francisco Lindor 2019 · MLB	25	52→62	59→65	51→55	53	274/336/490	217	279	26	16	14%	8%	131	+3.6	263/324/472	209	276	26	16	16%	8%	122	+3.0	270/347/485	215	296	27	26	19%	9%	135	+4.5
✕Royce Lewis 2024 · MLB	25	54→51	61→60	53→50	47	286/346/506	221	333	31	19	24%	8%	139	+4.1	240/296/424	184	280	24	12	24%	7%	101	+1.4	225/281/396	171	262	22	13	24%	7%	89	+0.4
●Trevor Story 2020 · MLB	27	52→54	60→65	53→55	46	267/331/495	228	330	28	19	27%	8%	130	+3.5	254/322/459	205	311	24	22	25%	8%	118	+2.7	239/309/433	194	293	23	23	26%	8%	109	+1.4
●José Ramírez 2019 · MLB	26	54→64	62→70	56→60	59	285/362/532	247	282	27	22	11%	10%	149	+4.9	266/345/519	253	265	31	24	14%	10%	141	+4.3	265/330/490	225	265	27	22	12%	8%	129	+3.9
●Kyle Tucker 2022 · MLB	25	50→53	63→65	56→55	50	267/327/510	243	286	30	18	19%	8%	132	+3.7	267/340/498	231	274	30	22	15%	10%	134	+3.8	267/364/494	227	273	28	25	15%	13%	142	+3.9
★David Wright 2008 · MLB	25	60→64	58→60	54→55	57	308/385/522	214	339	24	22	17%	11%	155	+5.3	296/375/495	199	345	22	19	19%	11%	145	+4.6	291/370/486	195	345	21	18	21%	11%	142	+5.0
●Bo Bichette 2022 · MLB	24	56→62	56→60	55	45	289/335/480	190	332	24	20	21%	6%	128	+3.3	286/327/454	168	337	20	11	21%	6%	119	+2.7	288/330/442	153	330	16	5	17%	5%	118	+2.3

Elly De La Cruz

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps