Francisco Lindor

SS New York Mets

Age 33 S/R 5'10" / 190 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 11.657 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBNYM	689	.273/.345/.500	33	29	142	7.7
2025	31	MLBNYM	732	.267/.349/.466	31	31	132	6.4
2026	32	MLBNYM	469	.225/.309/.423	21	3	111	2.4
2027PROJ	33	MLBNYM	465	.253/.334/.456	20	10	126	3.4
2028PROJ	34	MLBNYM	422	.243/.324/.434	18	5	117	2.1
2029PROJ	35	MLBNYM	338	.233/.312/.411	13	1	107	1.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 16.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractCONFIRMED

Control thru2031Service11.657First FA2032

2027Ext$34M2028Ext$34M2029Ext$34M2030Ext$34M2031Ext$34M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA90

Avg EV76

Barrel%66

Bat Spd65

Speed42

Form.253/.328/.472 · rolling true talent (45d window) · proj .259/.338/.466

CompsDexter Fowler (age 32) · Eduardo Escobar (age 33) · Carlos Beltrán (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 126126vR 126

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .334 / .456

PA465

HR20

SB10

K%19

BB%9

BABIP275

ISO201

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$82M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

620.261

POWER

Barrel%

6610.6

Avg EV

7690.9

Bat Spd

6573.0

SPEED

Sprint

4227.1

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%▼▼24% over 67 PA (45d) · proj 19%

BB%9%·8% over 131 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.220▲.237 over 118 AB (60d) · proj .206

HR/BB7.5%▲9.0% over 89 BBE (60d) · proj 6.3%

BABIP.276▼.198 over 81 BIP (60d) · proj .284

SLASH.253/.328/.472·proj .259/.338/.466

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1526 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

425

1101

—

wRC+

110

134

▶▶R

wOBA

331

367

▶R

ISO

182

215

▶▶R

BABIP

246

308

▶▶R

13.9%

19.8%

◀◀L

BB%

8.2%

8.6%

▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2015

Service 11.657 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$34M	+3.4	$33M	-$0.8M
2028	Ext	$34M	+2.1	$16M	-$15M
2029	Ext	$34M	+1.0	$7M	-$21M
2030	Ext	$34M	+0.3	$1.0M	-$24M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$136M		$57M	-$61M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$61M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	A	Lake County Captains	—	568	490	126	24	3	6	61	78	11	27	12	257	352	355	707	98	295	14	11	322	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	AA	Akron Aeros	—	91	76	22	3	1	1	14	7	1	5	2	289	407	395	801	105	309	8	15	367	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+	Carolina Mudcats	—	373	327	100	19	6	1	35	39	2	20	5	306	376	410	786	104	341	10	9	346	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	180	165	45	4	0	5	9	36	0	3	7	273	310	388	698	115	317	20	5	302	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA	Akron RubberDucks	—	387	342	95	12	4	6	40	61	1	25	9	278	355	389	744	111	320	16	10	333	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	108	98	26	5	1	3	8	13	1	2	5	265	327	429	756	163	277	12	7	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	438	390	122	22	4	12	27	69	1	12	2	313	359	482	841	169	348	16	6	354	127	+14	+2	+11	+8	+9	4.4
2015	21	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	262	229	65	11	5	2	25	38	0	9	7	284	354	402	756	118	328	15	10	330	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	684	604	182	30	3	15	57	88	5	19	5	301	366	435	802	134	324	13	8	350	121	+17	+2	+16	+7	+15	5.8
2017	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	723	651	178	44	4	33	60	93	4	15	3	273	338	505	844	232	275	13	8	365	130	+26	+2	+13	+8	+16	6.5
2018	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	745	661	183	42	2	38	70	107	8	25	10	277	353	519	872	242	279	14	9	379	138	+34	+1	+19	+8	+16	7.9
2019	25	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	654	598	170	40	2	32	46	98	3	22	5	284	338	518	857	234	291	15	7	371	130	+23	+2	+21	+7	+14	7.0
2020	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	266	236	61	13	0	8	24	41	4	6	2	258	337	415	752	157	280	15	9	335	109	+3	+0	+7	+3	+6	1.9
2021	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	524	452	104	16	3	20	58	96	5	10	4	230	324	412	736	181	248	18	11	324	106	+4	+0	+19	+6	+11	4.1
2022	28	MLB	New York Mets	—	706	630	170	25	5	26	59	133	10	16	6	270	342	449	791	179	301	19	8	348	125	+21	+1	+12	+8	+15	5.9
2023	29	MLB	New York Mets	—	687	602	153	33	2	31	66	137	12	31	4	254	340	470	810	216	277	20	10	355	130	+25	+5	+8	+7	+15	6.1
2024	30	MLB	New York Mets	—	689	618	169	39	1	33	56	127	12	29	4	273	345	500	845	227	295	18	8	370	142	+35	+4	+15	+7	+15	7.7
2025	31	MLB	New York Mets	—	732	644	172	35	0	31	65	131	16	31	6	267	349	466	815	199	288	18	9	359	132	+28	+4	+7	+8	+16	6.4
2026	32	MLB	New York Mets	—	469	418	94	12	4	21	46	95	5	3	2	225	309	423	733	199	242	20	10	326	111	+6	-0	+3	+5	+10	2.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7317	6504	1758	351	30	300	634	1215	85	219	53	270	343	472	815	202	289	17	9	356	127	+234	+23	+153	+81	+159	66.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	568	515	122	22	3	4	37	105	11	27	12	237	302	315	617	78	286	18	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	AA MLE	Akron Aeros	—	91	80	23	3	1	1	10	9	1	5	2	287	374	388	761	100	306	10	11	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	373	339	103	18	5	1	23	56	2	20	5	304	352	395	747	91	346	15	6	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	180	168	42	3	0	4	6	42	0	3	7	250	276	339	615	89	300	23	3	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	—	387	353	93	11	5	6	29	77	1	25	9	263	321	374	695	110	312	20	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	438	390	123	22	5	12	27	69	1	12	2	315	361	490	851	174	348	16	6	356	127	+14	+2	+11	+8	+9	4.4
2015	21	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	262	237	67	10	6	2	17	45	0	9	7	283	331	401	732	118	321	17	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	684	607	183	30	4	15	54	88	5	19	5	301	363	438	802	137	324	13	8	347	121	+17	+2	+16	+7	+15	5.8
2017	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	723	657	178	43	5	33	54	93	4	15	3	271	330	502	832	231	275	13	7	360	130	+26	+2	+13	+8	+16	6.5
2018	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	745	668	182	41	2	38	63	107	8	25	10	272	342	510	853	238	279	14	8	372	138	+34	+1	+19	+8	+16	7.9
2019	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	654	607	169	39	2	32	37	98	3	22	5	278	323	507	830	229	291	15	6	361	130	+23	+2	+21	+7	+14	7.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	266	238	61	13	0	8	22	41	4	6	2	256	330	412	741	155	280	15	8	329	109	+3	+0	+7	+3	+6	1.9
2021	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	524	456	107	17	3	20	54	96	5	10	4	235	322	417	739	182	248	18	10	325	106	+4	+0	+19	+6	+11	4.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	706	632	175	27	5	26	57	133	10	16	6	277	346	459	805	182	301	19	8	354	125	+21	+1	+12	+8	+15	5.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	687	603	157	35	2	31	65	137	12	31	4	260	344	479	823	219	277	20	9	361	130	+25	+5	+8	+7	+15	6.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	689	618	173	41	1	33	56	127	12	29	4	280	351	510	861	230	295	18	8	378	142	+35	+4	+15	+7	+15	7.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	732	646	177	37	0	31	63	131	16	31	6	274	353	475	828	201	288	18	9	364	132	+28	+4	+7	+8	+16	6.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	469	418	96	13	4	21	46	95	5	3	2	230	313	431	744	201	242	20	10	332	111	+6	-0	+3	+5	+10	2.4
2012	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	568	515	122	22	3	4	37	105	11	27	12	237	302	315	617	78	290	18	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	A RAW	Lake County Captains	—	568	490	126	24	3	6	61	78	11	27	12	257	352	355	707	98	295	14	11	322	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	464	419	126	21	6	2	33	64	3	25	7	301	356	394	750	93	348	14	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	464	403	122	22	7	2	49	46	3	25	7	303	382	407	789	104	335	10	11	350	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	675	621	161	17	5	12	41	142	2	30	21	259	307	361	668	101	315	21	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	675	605	166	21	5	14	57	110	2	30	21	274	339	395	734	121	312	16	8	325	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	700	627	189	32	11	14	44	114	1	21	9	301	348	455	803	153	344	16	6	337	114	+12	+1	+11	+8	+15	4.7
2015	21	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	700	619	187	33	9	14	52	107	1	21	9	302	357	452	809	150	341	15	7	345	114	+12	+1	+11	+8	+15	4.7
2016	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	684	607	183	30	4	15	54	88	5	19	5	301	363	438	802	137	324	13	8	347	121	+17	+2	+16	+7	+15	5.8
2016	22	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	684	604	182	30	3	15	57	88	5	19	5	301	366	435	802	134	324	13	8	350	121	+17	+2	+16	+7	+15	5.8
2017	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	723	657	178	43	5	33	54	93	4	15	3	271	330	502	832	231	272	13	7	360	130	+26	+2	+13	+8	+16	6.5
2017	23	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	723	651	178	44	4	33	60	93	4	15	3	273	338	505	844	232	275	13	8	365	130	+26	+2	+13	+8	+16	6.5
2018	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	745	668	182	41	2	38	63	107	8	25	10	272	342	510	853	238	274	14	8	372	138	+34	+1	+19	+8	+16	7.9
2018	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	745	661	183	42	2	38	70	107	8	25	10	277	353	519	872	242	279	14	9	379	138	+34	+1	+19	+8	+16	7.9
2019	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	654	607	169	39	2	32	37	98	3	22	5	278	323	507	830	229	284	15	6	361	130	+23	+2	+21	+7	+14	7.0
2019	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	654	598	170	40	2	32	46	98	3	22	5	284	338	518	857	234	291	15	7	371	130	+23	+2	+21	+7	+14	7.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	266	238	61	13	0	8	22	41	4	6	2	256	330	412	741	155	277	15	8	329	109	+3	+0	+7	+3	+6	1.9
2020	26	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	—	266	236	61	13	0	8	24	41	4	6	2	258	337	415	752	157	280	15	9	335	109	+3	+0	+7	+3	+6	1.9
2021	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	524	456	107	17	3	20	54	96	5	10	4	235	322	417	739	182	254	18	10	325	106	+4	+0	+19	+6	+11	4.1
2021	27	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	524	452	104	16	3	20	58	96	5	10	4	230	324	412	736	181	248	18	11	324	106	+4	+0	+19	+6	+11	4.1
2022	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	706	632	175	27	5	26	57	133	10	16	6	277	346	459	805	182	310	19	8	354	125	+21	+1	+12	+8	+15	5.9
2022	28	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	706	630	170	25	5	26	59	133	10	16	6	270	342	449	791	179	301	19	8	348	125	+21	+1	+12	+8	+15	5.9
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	687	603	157	35	2	31	65	137	12	31	4	260	344	479	823	219	285	20	9	361	130	+25	+5	+8	+7	+15	6.1
2023	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	687	602	153	33	2	31	66	137	12	31	4	254	340	470	810	216	277	20	10	355	130	+25	+5	+8	+7	+15	6.1
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	689	618	173	41	1	33	56	127	12	29	4	280	351	510	861	230	304	18	8	378	142	+35	+4	+15	+7	+15	7.7
2024	30	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	689	618	169	39	1	33	56	127	12	29	4	273	345	500	845	227	295	18	8	370	142	+35	+4	+15	+7	+15	7.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	732	646	177	37	0	31	63	131	16	31	6	274	353	475	828	201	297	18	9	364	132	+28	+4	+7	+8	+16	6.4
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	732	644	172	35	0	31	65	131	16	31	6	267	349	466	815	199	288	18	9	359	132	+28	+4	+7	+8	+16	6.4
2026	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	469	418	96	13	4	21	46	95	5	3	2	230	313	431	744	201	248	20	10	332	111	+6	-0	+3	+5	+10	2.4
2026	32	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	469	418	94	12	4	21	46	95	5	3	2	225	309	423	733	199	242	20	10	326	111	+6	-0	+3	+5	+10	2.4
2012	18	A MLE	Lake County Captains	—	568	515	122	22	3	4	37	105	11	27	12	237	302	315	617	78	286	18	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	464	425	126	21	6	2	33	64	3	25	7	296	356	388	744	92	338	14	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	675	627	161	17	5	12	41	142	2	30	21	257	307	357	664	100	308	21	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	700	649	189	32	11	14	44	114	1	21	9	291	348	439	787	148	338	16	6	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	684	620	183	30	4	15	54	88	5	19	5	295	363	429	792	134	324	13	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	723	659	178	43	5	33	54	93	4	15	3	270	330	501	831	231	275	13	7	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	745	668	182	41	2	38	63	107	8	25	10	272	342	510	853	238	279	14	8	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	654	609	169	39	2	32	37	98	3	22	5	278	323	506	829	228	291	15	6	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	266	238	61	13	0	8	22	41	4	6	2	256	330	412	741	155	280	15	8	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	524	460	107	17	3	20	54	96	5	10	4	233	322	413	735	180	248	18	10	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	706	633	175	27	5	26	57	133	10	16	6	276	346	458	804	182	301	19	8	354	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	687	605	157	35	2	31	65	137	12	31	4	260	344	478	822	218	277	20	9	361	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	689	616	173	41	1	33	56	127	12	29	4	281	351	511	863	231	295	18	8	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	732	647	177	37	0	31	63	131	16	31	6	274	353	474	828	201	288	18	9	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	469	415	96	13	4	21	46	95	5	3	2	231	313	434	747	202	242	20	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	689	616	173	41	1	33	56	127	12	29	4	281	351	511	863	231	295	18	8	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	732	647	177	37	0	31	63	131	16	31	6	274	353	474	828	201	288	18	9	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	469	415	96	13	4	21	46	95	5	3	2	231	313	434	747	202	242	20	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	537	474	124	21	3	24	50	104	8	12	3	260	341	466	807	206	284	19	9	354	126	+17	+1	+3	+6	+12	3.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	465	412	104	17	3	20	43	90	7	10	3	253	334	456	790	203	275	19	9	348	126	+14	+1	+3	+5	+10	3.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	422	374	93	15	2	18	39	85	6	5	2	250	330	444	774	194	276	20	9	341	117	+9	+0	-2	+5	+9	2.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	338	301	72	11	2	13	30	71	4	1	1	239	318	420	738	181	267	21	9	327	107	+3	-0	-3	+4	+7	1.0
2030	36	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	262	234	53	8	1	9	23	57	3	1	1	228	306	395	700	166	259	22	9	312	97	-1	-0	-5	+3	+6	0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	422	374	91	14	2	18	39	85	6	5	2	243	324	434	758	191	267	20	9	335	117	+9	+0	-2	+5	+9	2.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	338	301	71	11	2	13	30	71	4	1	1	233	312	411	723	178	259	21	9	321	107	+3	-0	-3	+4	+7	1.0
2030	36	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	262	234	51	7	1	9	23	57	3	1	1	222	300	386	686	164	251	22	9	306	97	-1	-0	-5	+3	+6	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	8339	7413	1971	383	35	340	726	1428	98	226	57	266	339	465	804	199	285	17	9	352	118	+245	+22	+142	+92	+181	69.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	155	30	3	27	57	111	8	18	4	268	343	471	813	202	288	17	9	352	118	+19	+2	+11	+7	+14	5.4
Career	—	MLE		—	10773	9653	2581	480	61	380	861	1874	121	327	107	267	335	448	783	180	294	17	8	342	118	+259	+23	+145	+97	+191	73.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	156	29	4	23	52	113	7	20	6	268	335	450	785	182	295	17	8	342	118	+19	+2	+11	+7	+14	5.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2015 AAAColumbus Clippers · 262 PAwOBA .325 → .306 (−19)K% 14.5% → 17.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.50%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	17.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.54%	÷1.068	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	24.61%	÷1.005	×0.930	×1.016	×1.050	24.29%
Doubles /BIP	5.76%	÷1.019	×0.830	×1.016	×1.050	5.00%
Triples /BIP	2.62%	÷0.900	×0.970	×1.016	×1.050	3.01%
Home runs /BIP	1.05%	÷1.217	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.76%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 102, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .325 → .306; ISO .118 → .116; BABIP .328 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAkron RubberDucks · 387 PAwOBA .328 → .300 (−27)K% 15.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.76%	÷0.965	×1.220	—	—	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.008	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.54%
HBP% /PA	0.26%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.23%
Singles /BIP	25.98%	÷1.064	×0.970	×1.020	×1.050	25.36%
Doubles /BIP	4.27%	÷0.992	×0.860	×1.020	×1.050	3.97%
Triples /BIP	1.42%	÷0.900	×0.950	×1.020	×1.050	1.61%
Home runs /BIP	2.14%	÷0.881	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.99%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 113, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .328 → .300; ISO .111 → .108; BABIP .320 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAColumbus Clippers · 180 PAwOBA .295 → .272 (−23)K% 20.0% → 23.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.016	×1.200	—	—	23.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.050	3.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.91%	÷1.034	×0.930	×1.019	×1.050	26.86%
Doubles /BIP	3.10%	÷1.047	×0.830	×1.019	×1.050	2.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.007	×0.970	×1.019	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.88%	÷1.028	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.33%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 107, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 103, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .295 → .272; ISO .115 → .101; BABIP .317 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 A+Carolina Mudcats · 373 PAwOBA .340 → .321 (−19)K% 10.5% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.46%	÷0.994	×1.420	—	—	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷1.013	×0.630	—	×1.042	6.08%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	0.48%
Singles /BIP	25.69%	÷0.979	×0.940	×1.050	×1.042	26.99%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷0.951	×0.830	×1.050	×1.042	6.30%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.150	×0.800	×1.050	×1.042	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	0.35%	÷1.024	×0.900	—	×1.042	0.32%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .340 → .321; ISO .104 → .093; BABIP .341 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAkron Aeros · 91 PAwOBA .359 → .332 (−27)K% 7.7% → 9.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.69%	÷0.984	×1.220	—	—	9.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.38%	÷1.029	×0.700	—	×1.050	10.99%
HBP% /PA	1.10%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.98%
Singles /BIP	24.64%	÷1.037	×0.970	×1.025	×1.050	24.80%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷1.001	×0.860	×1.025	×1.050	4.02%
Triples /BIP	1.45%	÷1.049	×0.950	×1.025	×1.050	1.41%
Home runs /BIP	1.45%	÷0.879	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.35%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 110, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .359 → .332; ISO .105 → .102; BABIP .309 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 ALake County Captains · 568 PAwOBA .309 → .278 (−32)K% 13.7% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.73%	÷1.007	×1.360	—	—	18.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.33%	÷1.020	×0.690	—	×1.045	6.60%
HBP% /PA	1.94%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.58%
Singles /BIP	22.57%	÷1.015	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	22.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.83%	÷1.022	×0.830	×1.050	×1.045	5.19%
Triples /BIP	0.73%	÷0.961	×0.910	×1.050	×1.045	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	1.46%	÷1.163	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.05%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 103, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .309 → .278; ISO .098 → .084; BABIP .295 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryne Sandberg'81-'97 * career totals — 15 seasons, 9,282 PA	14.0	9,282	282	344	280*	342*	480*	+33	+154	70.9	60.9
/162	664	20	25	+2.4	+11.0	5.1	pk7: 51
#2Chase Utleylast yr '18 AS×6SS×4 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,863 PA	11.8	7,863	259	154	275	358	465	+28	+107	67.9	60.3
/162	664	22	13	+2.4	+9.1	5.7	pk7: 53
#3Miguel Tejada'97-'13 * career totals — 16 seasons, 9,203 PA	13.9	9,203	307	85	275*	327*	447*	+88	+94	60.5	51.9
/162	664	22	6	+6.4	+6.8	4.4	pk7: 43
#4Evan Longorialast yr '23 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,206 PA	12.4	8,206	342	58	264	333	471	+29	+110	61.2	51.8
/162	664	28	5	+2.4	+8.9	5.0	pk7: 42
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	13.3	8,804	361	236	266	336	466	+87	+235	62.0	51.1
/162	664	27	18	+6.6	+17.8	4.7	pk7: 40
#5Buddy Bell'72-'89 * career totals — 18 seasons, 10,009 PA	15.1	10,009	201	55	277*	341*	437*	+28	+138	60.4	50.1
/162	664	13	4	+1.9	+9.1	4.0	pk7: 40
#6J.J. Hardylast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,309 PA	9.5	6,309	188	8	256	305	408	+68	+163	40.4	35.7
/162	664	20	1	+7.1	+17.2	4.3	pk7: 31

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Francisco Lindor (OGILVIE)	33	—	—	—	—	258/338/462	204	284	20	10	19%	9%	126	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Dexter Fowler 2018 · MLB	32	52→62	53→55	53→55	58	261/359/452	191	311	19	12	22%	12%	130	+3.5	232/330/402	170	280	20	9	23%	12%	109	+2.0	217/320/372	156	262	20	8	24%	12%	101	+0.8
✕Eduardo Escobar 2022 · MLB	33	47→57	57→60	51→50	48	249/304/451	202	272	25	3	20%	7%	110	+2.1	241/294/413	172	289	20	3	23%	7%	97	+1.1	236/286/400	163	288	18	1	24%	6%	92	+0.5
★Carlos Beltrán 2010 · MLB	33	56→60	56→65	56→60	58	285/359/485	200	301	22	19	14%	10%	137	+4.0	281/352/480	199	306	22	10	16%	10%	134	+3.8	284/346/504	220	304	28	6	17%	8%	139	+4.2
✕Robbie Grossman 2022 · MLB	32	48→58	53→50	53→50	59	243/347/420	177	285	20	17	22%	13%	119	+2.7	228/331/366	138	292	14	9	24%	13%	101	+1.4	218/324/333	115	286	10	5	25%	13%	91	+0.4
✕J.T. Realmuto 2024 · MLB	33	50→60	54→60	56→55	45	256/319/443	187	309	20	18	24%	7%	114	+2.3	249/309/400	151	307	17	9	24%	7%	100	+1.3	239/304/371	131	295	14	5	23%	7%	92	+0.6
●Jose Valentin 2001 · MLB	31	51→52	56→65	57→50	54	263/332/469	205	283	23	16	17%	9%	124	+3.1	251/319/475	224	273	28	10	20%	9%	121	+2.9	241/311/471	229	258	30	8	20%	9%	119	+2.4
✕Gary Matthews Jr. 2008 · MLB	33	54→63	51→55	51→50	52	271/333/442	171	300	18	14	16%	8%	118	+2.6	248/318/378	130	302	12	11	21%	9%	98	+1.2	241/314/352	111	306	8	9	22%	9%	90	+0.3
●Hunter Pence 2016 · MLB	33	55→63	55→60	52→50	49	279/331/471	192	314	22	13	19%	7%	124	+3.1	271/326/425	154	322	18	5	21%	7%	112	+2.2	265/319/401	135	319	15	4	21%	7%	104	+1.2
✕Zack Cozart 2019 · MLB	33	50→56	53→60	52→50	55	256/333/443	186	279	19	4	16%	9%	118	+2.7	219/290/349	130	248	13	6	17%	8%	82	-0.0	121/178/142	21	144	0	0	15%	5%	-8	-1.2
●Jose Altuve 2024 · MLB	34	56→66	59→60	53→60	57	293/372/509	217	310	27	15	16%	10%	148	+4.8	276/336/443	167	309	21	14	18%	8%	120	+2.8	266/323/420	155	298	20	12	18%	7%	110	+2.2
●AJ Pollock 2020 · MLB	32	49→59	57→65	53→55	47	256/317/459	203	285	25	14	20%	7%	117	+2.6	269/320/482	213	300	28	9	20%	6%	124	+3.1	267/316/467	200	296	25	7	19%	6%	120	+1.8
✕Aaron Boone 2005 · MLB	32	49→57	54→60	55	50	254/315/438	184	270	22	21	16%	7%	111	+2.1	247/309/384	137	276	15	10	17%	6%	97	+1.1	247/312/373	127	278	14	8	16%	6%	96	+0.7
●Charlie Blackmon 2019 · MLB	33	56→59	57→60	49→55	50	287/350/489	202	320	24	12	19%	8%	135	+3.9	279/339/464	185	312	21	6	17%	7%	126	+3.2	276/340/447	171	308	19	3	16%	7%	124	+2.5
✕Luis Terrero 2013 · AAA	33	52→59	58→60	53→55	46	270/335/475	204	323	26	24	25%	7%	127	+3.3	254/328/413	159	311	20	17	24%	8%	110	+2.1	248/333/397	149	305	20	15	24%	9%	107	+0.8
●Brian Dozier 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	58→65	50	54	245/326/452	207	270	25	13	20%	10%	118	+2.7	238/326/419	181	275	22	8	22%	11%	111	+2.1	235/335/426	190	268	25	4	22%	12%	117	+2.1
✕Asdrúbal Cabrera 2020 · MLB	34	51→61	53→60	48→50	52	262/331/440	178	297	20	4	19%	9%	117	+2.6	242/317/408	166	286	17	4	21%	9%	105	+1.7	231/308/390	159	275	15	1	21%	10%	97	+0.5
●Curtis Granderson 2014 · MLB	33	44→54	61→65	52→50	52	237/323/460	223	283	29	14	27%	11%	119	+2.7	244/337/434	190	289	22	9	23%	12%	118	+2.7	240/340/459	219	272	26	7	22%	12%	127	+3.4
✕Marcus Semien 2024 · MLB	33	50→55	56→65	52→50	53	262/329/461	198	279	23	14	16%	9%	121	+2.9	239/309/390	151	262	18	10	16%	9%	98	+1.2	226/298/361	135	249	17	10	17%	9%	87	+0.4
●Torii Hunter 2007 · MLB	32	52→62	58→65	50→55	49	271/329/471	200	290	26	18	17%	7%	124	+3.1	279/330/480	201	305	25	17	17%	7%	126	+3.2	281/346/470	189	313	22	16	17%	8%	130	+3.5
●José Ramírez 2024 · MLB	31	52→62	57→70	56→60	54	268/326/479	211	268	24	21	12%	8%	124	+3.1	265/319/473	208	265	26	32	12%	7%	121	+2.9	258/316/460	202	256	26	39	12%	7%	118	+2.8

Francisco Lindor

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps