Marcus Semien

2B New York Mets

Age 36 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB H -5% Svc 12.686 · Ctrl thru 2028

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	33	MLBTEX	718	.237/.308/.391	23	8	94	2.9
2025	34	MLBTEX	534	.230/.310/.364	15	11	87	1.3
2026	35	MLBNYM	547	.215/.283/.340	15	10	79	0.2
2027PROJ	36	MLBNYM	346	.236/.308/.370	10	7	96	1.1
2028PROJ	37	MLBNYM	235	.225/.295/.344	6	2	85	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.3 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service12.686First FA2028

2027Ext$25M2028Ext$25M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed71

xwOBA54

Barrel%36

Avg EV29

Bat Spd19

Form.251/.324/.372 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .242/.312/.379

CompsJose Luis Sandoval (age 36) · Omar Ramirez (age 36) · Cesar Tapia (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9996vR 88

AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .308 / .370

PA346

HR10

SB7

K%18

BB%9

BABIP263

ISO138

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$42M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

430.245

POWER

Barrel%

366.4

Avg EV

2987.5

Bat Spd

1968.1

SPEED

Sprint

7128.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%12%▲▲8% over 99 PA (60d) · proj 18%

BB%9%▲10% over 99 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.121▼.092 over 87 AB (60d) · proj .137

HR/BB2.7%▼1.2% over 80 BBE (60d) · proj 3.8%

BABIP.267▼.215 over 79 BIP (60d) · proj .272

SLASH.251/.324/.372·proj .242/.312/.379

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1354 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

342

1012

—

wRC+

105

◀◀L

wOBA

323

295

◀L

ISO

123

147

▶▶R

BABIP

291

240

◀◀L

16.1%

—

BB%

10.8%

8.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2013

Service 12.686 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$25M	+1.0	$8M	-$17M
2028	Ext	$25M	—	—	—
Totals		$50M		$7M	-$41M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	20	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	262	229	58	15	2	3	22	53	2	3	4	253	324	376	700	122	312	20	8	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	487	418	115	32	5	14	55	98	5	11	5	275	366	476	842	201	327	20	11	366	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	71	69	18	4	0	2	1	22	0	2	2	261	271	406	677	145	348	31	1	294	84	-1	-0	+2	+3	+2	0.4
2013	22	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	142	125	33	11	1	4	14	24	1	4	0	264	343	464	807	200	293	17	10	352	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	484	393	114	21	5	15	84	66	4	20	5	290	419	483	903	193	317	14	17	401	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	89	77	12	3	0	2	10	23	1	0	2	156	261	273	534	117	189	26	11	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	255	231	54	10	2	6	21	70	1	3	0	234	300	372	673	139	310	27	8	300	88	-4	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.4
2014	23	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	366	303	81	20	3	15	53	59	5	7	2	267	385	502	887	234	282	16	14	386	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	601	556	143	23	7	15	42	132	1	11	5	257	311	405	715	147	312	22	7	317	103	+2	+0	-5	+6	+13	1.7
2016	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	621	568	135	27	2	27	51	139	0	10	2	238	300	435	735	197	268	22	8	324	110	+7	+1	+1	+7	+13	3.0
2017	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	386	342	85	19	1	10	38	85	2	12	1	249	327	398	725	149	300	22	10	323	107	+3	+2	-4	+5	+8	1.4
2017	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	15	14	4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	286	333	500	833	214	250	7	7	366	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	A+	Stockton Ports	—	20	17	6	3	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	353	353	706	1.059	353	294	10	0	387	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	703	632	161	35	2	15	61	131	1	14	6	255	321	388	709	133	296	19	9	315	101	+1	+0	+4	+8	+15	2.8
2019	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	747	657	187	43	7	33	87	102	2	10	8	285	370	522	892	237	294	14	12	390	154	+48	-1	+1	+8	+16	7.4
2020	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	236	211	47	9	1	7	25	50	0	4	0	223	305	374	679	152	260	21	11	306	97	-1	+1	-6	+3	+5	0.2
2021	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	724	652	173	39	2	45	66	146	3	15	1	265	336	538	874	273	276	20	9	378	142	+36	+3	+4	+3	+16	6.2
2022	31	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	724	657	163	31	5	26	53	120	4	25	8	248	308	429	737	181	263	17	7	322	101	+1	+2	+7	+3	+16	2.8
2023	32	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	753	670	185	40	4	29	72	110	5	14	3	276	350	478	828	201	291	15	10	363	128	+25	+2	+12	+3	+16	5.9
2024	33	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	718	650	154	27	2	23	64	105	3	8	3	237	308	391	699	154	250	15	9	313	94	-5	+0	+15	+3	+16	2.9
2025	34	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	534	470	108	16	1	15	50	93	5	11	1	230	310	364	674	134	251	17	9	301	87	-9	+2	+6	+2	+12	1.3
2026	35	MLB	New York Mets	—	547	494	106	15	1	15	45	104	2	10	3	215	283	340	623	126	239	19	8	279	79	-14	+1	+1	+2	+12	0.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7620	6859	1719	338	37	268	676	1409	29	149	43	251	320	428	748	177	277	18	9	330	110	+89	+13	+36	+55	+165	36.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	262	237	50	13	2	2	14	68	2	3	4	211	261	308	569	97	267	26	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	487	439	100	27	4	13	34	143	5	11	5	228	291	396	687	169	292	29	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	71	69	18	4	0	2	1	22	0	2	2	261	271	406	677	145	348	31	1	292	84	-1	-0	+2	+3	+2	0.4
2013	22	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	142	128	30	9	1	4	11	28	1	4	0	234	300	414	714	180	260	20	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	484	421	105	18	4	13	57	87	4	20	5	249	344	404	748	154	284	18	12	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	255	231	54	10	2	6	21	70	1	3	0	234	300	372	673	139	310	27	8	299	88	-4	+1	-1	+2	+6	0.4
2014	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	366	319	75	17	3	12	37	72	5	7	2	235	324	420	744	185	259	20	10	327	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	601	557	143	22	7	16	41	132	1	11	5	257	309	408	716	151	312	22	7	321	103	+2	+0	-5	+6	+13	1.7
2016	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	621	569	137	26	2	30	50	139	0	10	2	241	302	452	754	211	268	22	8	331	110	+7	+1	+1	+7	+13	3.0
2017	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	386	342	85	18	1	11	38	85	2	12	1	249	327	404	731	155	300	22	10	327	107	+3	+2	-4	+5	+8	1.4
2017	26	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	15	14	4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	286	333	500	833	214	228	7	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	20	17	6	3	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	353	353	706	1.059	353	248	15	0	398	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	703	633	162	34	2	16	60	131	1	14	6	256	321	392	713	136	296	19	9	317	101	+1	+0	+4	+8	+15	2.8
2019	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	747	659	190	42	7	36	85	102	2	10	8	288	371	537	908	249	294	14	11	396	154	+48	-1	+1	+8	+16	7.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	236	211	48	9	1	8	25	50	0	4	0	227	309	393	703	166	260	21	11	312	97	-1	+1	-6	+3	+5	0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	724	652	173	39	2	45	66	146	3	15	1	265	336	538	874	273	276	20	9	378	142	+36	+3	+4	+3	+16	6.2
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	724	657	161	32	5	24	53	120	4	25	8	245	305	419	724	174	263	17	7	317	101	+1	+2	+7	+3	+16	2.8
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	753	672	184	42	4	27	71	110	5	14	3	274	348	469	816	195	291	15	9	357	128	+25	+2	+12	+3	+16	5.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	718	652	152	28	2	21	62	105	3	8	3	233	303	379	681	146	250	15	9	307	94	-5	+0	+15	+3	+16	2.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	534	470	108	17	1	14	50	93	5	11	1	230	310	360	670	130	251	17	9	296	87	-9	+2	+6	+2	+12	1.3
2026	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	547	494	109	16	1	15	45	104	2	10	3	221	288	348	637	128	239	19	8	285	79	-14	+1	+1	+2	+12	0.2
2011	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	262	237	50	13	2	2	14	68	2	3	4	211	261	308	569	97	282	26	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	262	229	58	15	2	3	22	53	2	3	4	253	324	376	700	122	312	20	8	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	487	439	100	27	4	13	34	143	5	11	5	228	291	396	687	169	304	29	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	487	418	115	32	5	14	55	98	5	11	5	275	366	476	842	201	327	20	11	366	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	786	697	173	35	6	21	77	155	6	26	9	248	328	406	734	158	290	20	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA RAW	4 teams	—	786	664	177	39	6	23	109	135	6	26	9	267	374	447	822	181	302	17	14	365	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	621	550	129	27	5	18	58	142	6	10	2	235	314	400	714	165	281	23	9	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	621	534	135	30	5	21	74	129	6	10	2	253	350	446	796	193	293	21	12	351	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	601	557	143	22	7	16	41	132	1	11	5	257	309	408	716	151	310	22	7	321	103	+2	+0	-5	+6	+13	1.7
2015	24	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	601	556	143	23	7	15	42	132	1	11	5	257	311	405	715	147	312	22	7	317	103	+2	+0	-5	+6	+13	1.7
2016	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	621	569	137	26	2	30	50	139	0	10	2	241	302	452	754	211	267	22	8	331	110	+7	+1	+1	+7	+13	3.0
2016	25	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	621	568	135	27	2	27	51	139	0	10	2	238	300	435	735	197	268	22	8	324	110	+7	+1	+1	+7	+13	3.0
2017	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	421	373	95	21	1	13	39	89	2	12	1	255	329	421	749	166	296	21	9	330	109	+5	+2	-4	+5	+9	1.7
2017	26	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	421	373	95	22	1	12	39	88	2	12	1	255	329	416	744	161	297	21	9	327	109	+5	+2	-4	+5	+9	1.7
2018	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	703	633	162	34	2	16	60	131	1	14	6	256	321	392	713	136	296	19	9	317	101	+1	+0	+4	+8	+15	2.8
2018	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	703	632	161	35	2	15	61	131	1	14	6	255	321	388	709	133	296	19	9	315	101	+1	+0	+4	+8	+15	2.8
2019	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	747	659	190	42	7	36	85	102	2	10	8	288	371	537	908	249	295	14	11	396	154	+48	-1	+1	+8	+16	7.4
2019	28	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	747	657	187	43	7	33	87	102	2	10	8	285	370	522	892	237	294	14	12	390	154	+48	-1	+1	+8	+16	7.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	236	211	48	9	1	8	25	50	0	4	0	227	309	393	703	166	261	21	11	312	97	-1	+1	-6	+3	+5	0.2
2020	29	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	236	211	47	9	1	7	25	50	0	4	0	223	305	374	679	152	260	21	11	306	97	-1	+1	-6	+3	+5	0.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	724	652	173	39	2	45	66	146	3	15	1	265	336	538	874	273	276	20	9	378	142	+36	+3	+4	+3	+16	6.2
2021	30	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	724	652	173	39	2	45	66	146	3	15	1	265	336	538	874	273	276	20	9	378	142	+36	+3	+4	+3	+16	6.2
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	724	657	161	32	5	24	53	120	4	25	8	245	305	419	724	174	262	17	7	317	101	+1	+2	+7	+3	+16	2.8
2022	31	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	724	657	163	31	5	26	53	120	4	25	8	248	308	429	737	181	263	17	7	322	101	+1	+2	+7	+3	+16	2.8
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	753	672	184	42	4	27	71	110	5	14	3	274	348	469	816	195	291	15	9	357	128	+25	+2	+12	+3	+16	5.9
2023	32	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	753	670	185	40	4	29	72	110	5	14	3	276	350	478	828	201	291	15	10	363	128	+25	+2	+12	+3	+16	5.9
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	718	652	152	28	2	21	62	105	3	8	3	233	303	379	681	146	249	15	9	307	94	-5	+0	+15	+3	+16	2.9
2024	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	718	650	154	27	2	23	64	105	3	8	3	237	308	391	699	154	250	15	9	313	94	-5	+0	+15	+3	+16	2.9
2025	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	534	470	108	17	1	14	50	93	5	11	1	230	310	360	670	130	253	17	9	296	87	-9	+2	+6	+2	+12	1.3
2025	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	534	470	108	16	1	15	50	93	5	11	1	230	310	364	674	134	251	17	9	301	87	-9	+2	+6	+2	+12	1.3
2026	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	547	494	109	16	1	15	45	104	2	10	3	221	288	348	637	128	247	19	8	285	79	-14	+1	+1	+2	+12	0.2
2026	35	MLB RAW	New York Mets	—	547	494	106	15	1	15	45	104	2	10	3	215	283	340	623	126	239	19	8	279	79	-14	+1	+1	+2	+12	0.2
2011	20	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	262	244	50	13	2	2	14	68	2	3	4	205	261	299	560	94	267	26	5	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	487	445	100	27	4	13	34	143	5	11	5	225	291	391	682	166	292	29	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	4 teams	—	786	697	173	35	6	21	77	155	6	26	9	248	328	406	734	158	286	20	10	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	621	552	129	27	5	18	58	142	6	10	2	234	314	399	713	165	280	23	9	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	601	554	143	22	7	16	41	132	1	11	5	258	309	410	719	152	312	22	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	621	566	137	26	2	30	50	139	0	10	2	242	302	454	756	212	268	22	8	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	421	377	95	21	1	13	39	89	2	12	1	252	329	416	745	164	295	21	9	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	703	636	162	34	2	16	60	131	1	14	6	255	321	390	711	135	296	19	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	747	654	190	42	7	36	85	102	2	10	8	291	371	541	913	251	294	14	11	396	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	236	209	48	9	1	8	25	50	0	4	0	230	309	397	706	167	260	21	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	724	649	173	39	2	45	66	146	3	15	1	267	336	541	876	274	276	20	9	378	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	724	661	161	32	5	24	53	120	4	25	8	244	305	416	721	172	263	17	7	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	32	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	753	671	184	42	4	27	71	110	5	14	3	274	348	469	817	195	291	15	9	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	718	647	152	28	2	21	62	105	3	8	3	235	303	382	684	147	250	15	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	534	474	108	17	1	14	50	93	5	11	1	228	310	357	667	129	251	17	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	547	495	109	16	1	15	45	104	2	10	3	220	288	347	636	127	239	19	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	718	647	152	28	2	21	62	105	3	8	3	235	303	382	684	147	250	15	9	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	534	474	108	17	1	14	50	93	5	11	1	228	310	357	667	129	251	17	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	547	495	109	16	1	15	45	104	2	10	3	220	288	347	636	127	239	19	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	439	395	96	15	1	12	38	78	3	9	2	243	314	379	694	136	272	18	9	310	96	-2	+1	+4	+2	+10	1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	346	311	74	11	1	10	30	62	2	7	1	236	308	370	678	134	263	18	9	304	96	-2	+1	+3	+1	+7	1.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	100%	235	212	49	7	1	6	20	44	1	2	1	231	301	352	653	122	262	19	9	294	85	-4	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	100%	235	212	49	7	1	6	20	44	1	2	1	225	295	344	639	119	254	19	9	288	85	-4	+0	-5	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7855	7071	1768	345	38	274	696	1453	30	151	44	250	320	426	746	176	277	18	9	329	106	+85	+13	+31	+56	+170	36.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	147	29	3	23	58	120	2	12	4	251	321	429	750	178	278	18	9	329	106	+7	+1	+3	+5	+14	3.0
Career	—	MLE		—	10066	9045	2239	449	54	335	880	1935	50	203	63	248	318	420	738	173	278	19	9	324	106	+83	+14	+34	+57	+178	37.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	144	29	3	22	57	125	3	13	4	247	317	420	736	173	277	19	9	324	106	+7	+1	+3	+5	+14	3.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 A+Stockton Ports · 20 PAwOBA .441 → .398 (−43)K% 10.0% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷1.010	×1.340	—	—	13.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.115	×0.710	—	×0.958	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷0.979	×0.910	—	×0.958	11.87%
Doubles /BIP	20.00%	÷0.972	×0.820	—	×0.958	16.16%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.760	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.397	×0.920	—	×0.958	4.21%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 102, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .441 → .398; ISO .353 → .294; BABIP .294 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 15 PAwOBA .356 → .314 (−41)K% 6.7% → 8.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.67%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	8.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×1.003	4.61%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.984	×0.900	—	×1.003	21.17%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.021	×0.810	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×1.003	6.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .314; ISO .214 → .194; BABIP .250 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAACharlotte Knights · 366 PAwOBA .380 → .327 (−52)K% 16.1% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.12%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.93%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×1.048	9.96%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.35%
Singles /BIP	17.62%	÷0.966	×0.930	×0.950	×1.048	16.90%
Doubles /BIP	8.20%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.950	×1.048	6.93%
Triples /BIP	1.23%	÷0.910	×0.970	×0.950	×1.048	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	6.15%	÷1.118	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.84%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 82, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .380 → .327; ISO .234 → .200; BABIP .282 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AABirmingham Barons · 484 PAwOBA .389 → .328 (−61)K% 13.6% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.64%	÷0.926	×1.220	—	—	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.74%	÷1.001	×0.680	—	×1.027	11.67%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.71%
Singles /BIP	22.32%	÷0.990	×0.920	×0.976	×1.027	20.80%
Doubles /BIP	6.42%	÷1.096	×0.910	×0.976	×1.027	5.35%
Triples /BIP	1.53%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.976	×1.027	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	4.59%	÷0.991	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.80%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 85, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .389 → .328; ISO .193 → .164; BABIP .317 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 142 PAwOBA .347 → .304 (−43)K% 16.9% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.90%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	19.83%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷0.939	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.61%
HBP% /PA	0.70%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.70%
Singles /BIP	16.83%	÷1.004	×0.930	×0.950	×1.050	15.55%
Doubles /BIP	10.89%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.950	×1.050	8.97%
Triples /BIP	0.99%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×1.050	1.06%
Home runs /BIP	3.96%	÷0.972	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.59%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .347 → .304; ISO .200 → .179; BABIP .293 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 487 PAwOBA .358 → .291 (−67)K% 20.1% → 29.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.12%	÷0.974	×1.420	—	—	29.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.09%	÷1.016	×0.630	—	×1.012	6.96%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.860	—	×1.012	0.89%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.034	×0.940	×0.997	×1.012	18.34%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.958	×0.830	×0.997	×1.012	8.74%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷1.030	×0.800	×0.997	×1.012	1.22%
Home runs /BIP	4.38%	÷0.960	×0.900	—	×1.012	4.15%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 106, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .358 → .291; ISO .201 → .173; BABIP .327 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AKannapolis Intimidators · 262 PAwOBA .301 → .246 (−54)K% 20.2% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.23%	÷1.042	×1.340	—	—	26.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.40%	÷1.032	×0.660	—	×1.015	5.45%
HBP% /PA	0.76%	—	×0.770	—	×1.015	0.60%
Singles /BIP	21.59%	÷1.055	×0.920	×0.967	×1.015	18.48%
Doubles /BIP	8.52%	÷0.945	×0.820	×0.967	×1.015	7.26%
Triples /BIP	1.14%	÷1.013	×0.940	×0.967	×1.015	1.03%
Home runs /BIP	1.70%	÷1.023	×0.820	—	×1.015	1.39%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 111, 2B 89, 3B 103, K 108, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .301 → .246; ISO .122 → .105; BABIP .312 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	12.4	8,201	283	158	251	317	426	+24	+57	34.4	31.0
/162	664	23	13	+2.0	+4.7	2.8	pk7: 28
#2Tim Wallach'80-'96 * career totals — 16 seasons, 8,908 PA	13.4	8,908	260	51	253*	313*	441*	+20	+21	34.7	30.1
/162	664	19	4	+1.5	+1.5	2.6	pk7: 26
#3Gary Gaetti'81-'00 * career totals — 18 seasons, 9,817 PA	14.8	9,817	360	96	249*	303*	446*	+18	+63	35.6	29.7
/162	664	24	6	+1.2	+4.3	2.4	pk7: 24
#4Todd Frazierlast yr '20 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,909 PA	7.4	4,909	218	73	242	319	448	+18	+35	27.6	26.2
/162	664	29	10	+2.4	+4.7	3.7	pk7: 25
#5Aaron Hilllast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	162	74	266	323	417	+22	+25	27.7	26.1
/162	664	17	8	+2.4	+2.6	3.0	pk7: 25
#6Phil Garner'73-'88 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,860 PA	10.3	6,860	109	225	256*	321*	420*	+25	+14	26.6	24.1
/162	664	11	22	+2.5	+1.3	2.6	pk7: 22

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Marcus Semien (OGILVIE)	36	—	—	—	—	241/312/376	135	272	10	7	18%	9%	96	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Luis Sandoval 2006 · AAA	36	48→49	48→45	48→40	51	242/307/387	145	271	15	5	17%	8%	96	+1.0	242/293/364	122	279	12	4	17%	6%	85	+0.2	241/288/344	104	276	10	2	17%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Omar Ramirez 2007 · AAA	36	49→47	48→50	51→50	50	244/303/389	145	268	15	10	16%	7%	95	+1.0	241/300/359	118	272	12	12	16%	7%	87	+0.4	249/303/316	67	272	8	13	11%	7%	75	-0.1
✕Cesar Tapia 2019 · AAA	36	48→58	48→50	51→50	47	244/290/382	139	261	16	13	15%	6%	88	+0.5	226/276/349	123	261	13	8	19%	6%	76	-0.4	215/259/321	107	242	12	2	17%	4%	63	-0.6
✕A.J. Ellis 2018 · MLB	37	45→54	48→45	45→40	54	228/311/370	143	252	17	5	18%	9%	95	+0.9	247/334/371	124	299	12	6	20%	11%	103	+1.5	266/370/339	73	343	3	0	20%	14%	109	+0.6
✕So Taguchi 2005 · MLB	36	52→58	47→45	50	49	257/307/398	141	277	14	14	13%	6%	98	+1.2	269/319/381	112	302	9	15	14%	6%	98	+1.2	275/328/371	96	309	7	15	13%	6%	100	+0.8
✕Gabriel Gutierrez 2019 · AAA	35	50	45	48→45	47	244/295/369	125	277	12	11	17%	6%	87	+0.4	255/305/392	137	284	15	11	16%	6%	97	+1.1	277/322/407	129	300	16	8	13%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Nyjer Morgan 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	45	53→65	48	232/294/356	124	283	13	15	23%	8%	84	+0.1	235/301/356	121	271	12	20	17%	7%	87	+0.4	232/300/343	111	265	10	26	16%	7%	82	-0.0
✕Miguel Ojeda 2011 · AAA	36	47→45	46→45	43→45	51	235/298/365	131	265	14	8	18%	8%	88	+0.4	228/284/331	103	275	10	7	20%	7%	74	-0.5	225/281/317	91	274	8	6	20%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Hiram Bocachica 2011 · AAA	35	46	48→55	48→55	47	234/300/376	143	273	16	12	21%	7%	91	+0.7	215/292/369	154	259	17	18	23%	8%	87	+0.4	180/270/341	161	209	18	24	23%	9%	72	-0.4
✕Damion Easley 2006 · MLB	36	46→52	52→55	49→50	52	234/305/411	177	250	18	9	16%	8%	101	+1.4	250/323/417	167	265	20	5	15%	8%	109	+2.0	258/329/403	145	272	19	1	13%	7%	109	+0.9
✕Adonis García 2019 · MLB	34	51→54	48→50	49→50	44	254/296/393	138	277	16	9	16%	4%	93	+0.8	214/271/329	115	258	13	14	22%	6%	70	-0.9	181/235/262	81	221	9	16	22%	4%	39	-1.3
✕Chris Gimenez 2018 · MLB	35	44→54	48→50	49→45	51	221/308/360	139	279	16	5	26%	10%	91	+0.7	201/274/317	116	285	12	7	32%	8%	68	-1.0	155/216/231	76	233	7	4	35%	6%	26	-2.0
✕Tom Prince 2001 · MLB	36	49	46→50	50→45	51	239/315/373	135	292	12	8	22%	9%	97	+1.1	230/306/381	151	259	17	8	19%	8%	95	+1.0	217/295/364	147	239	18	7	18%	7%	88	+0.1
✕Coco Crisp 2016 · MLB	36	47→57	46→50	52→65	59	234/313/364	130	250	14	17	14%	10%	93	+0.8	230/299/381	151	256	15	12	16%	9%	92	+0.7	227/296/393	165	248	16	12	16%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Manny Martinez 2006 · AAA	35	49→56	51→45	49→55	52	251/311/412	161	266	19	18	15%	8%	103	+1.6	252/314/373	121	285	12	22	15%	7%	95	+1.0	249/313/351	101	288	9	24	16%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Mike Benjamin 2002 · MLB	36	51	44→45	47→50	46	249/300/374	125	293	9	12	18%	6%	90	+0.6	213/273/318	105	267	9	8	23%	7%	68	-1.0	148/200/180	33	198	0	0	24%	5%	8	-1.2
✕Yuniesky Betancourt 2017 · AAA	35	46→56	43→50	50	45	225/277/338	113	267	11	12	20%	6%	74	-0.6	224/259/306	82	249	7	7	13%	4%	58	-1.7	224/242/258	35	243	2	0	9%	2%	39	-1.1
✕Edgar Gonzalez 2013 · AAA	35	51→56	42→45	48→50	47	249/297/355	106	287	10	13	17%	6%	84	+0.2	224/269/339	115	291	12	16	26%	5%	70	-0.8	198/229/289	91	263	10	23	29%	3%	40	-0.9
✕Manny Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	37	48→58	45→50	52→50	46	239/284/363	124	264	13	18	16%	5%	82	-0.0	210/257/302	92	247	9	6	18%	6%	57	-1.8	193/238/264	70	226	7	0	18%	5%	39	-2.7
✕Pedro Castellano 2006 · AAA	36	51→61	49→50	47→45	53	256/321/398	142	272	18	4	14%	8%	104	+1.6	256/311/392	136	281	15	3	14%	7%	99	+1.2	265/317/395	131	292	13	2	14%	6%	100	+1.0

Marcus Semien

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps