Yordan Alvarez — OGILVIE

Yordan AlvarezLF Houston Astros

Age 29 L/R 6'4" / 237 lbs MLB H +4%HR -3% Svc 6.657 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 6.1 · 2026

wRC+†vL 226197vR 163

AVG/OBP/SLG.296 / .388 / .545

PA510

HR27

K%16

BB%12

xwOBA.551

Barrel%21.2%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

60→60

SPD

40→40

EYE

63↘45

trajectory · 10 yrs

5.0peak

2026

Contract

CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.657 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+6.1	$49M	+$29M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+4.0	$33M	+$13M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+3.6	$31M	+$11M
Totals		$58M		$112M	+$54M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	57	49	14	2	1	1	7	10	0	2	1	.286	.375	.429	.804	.143	.333	18	12	.328	109	+1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.2
2017	20	A+	3 teams	408	367	94	15	2	10	27	109	4	8	1	.256	.314	.390	.704	.134	.326	27	7	.309	95	-2	+1	+0	-4	+12	0.6
2018	21	AA	2 teams	379	350	81	16	0	16	27	120	0	6	2	.231	.286	.414	.701	.183	.301	32	7	.305	92	-4	+0	+0	-4	+11	0.4
2019	22	MLB	2 teams	622	546	163	40	0	46	70	157	3	2	1	.299	.381	.625	1.006	.326	.338	25	11	.428	186	+60	+0	-2	-7	+18	7.1
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	598	537	147	35	0	32	50	145	8	1	0	.274	.345	.518	.862	.244	.317	24	8	.368	140	+27	+0	-1	-6	+17	3.7
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	561	470	140	29	2	36	78	106	6	1	1	.298	.404	.598	1.002	.300	.310	19	14	.412	173	+46	-0	-2	-6	+16	5.6
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	496	410	124	24	1	33	69	92	13	0	0	.302	.419	.607	1.026	.305	.315	19	14	.429	186	+48	+0	-2	-5	+14	5.6
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	635	552	168	33	2	34	69	95	10	6	0	.304	.391	.556	.948	.252	.314	15	11	.389	156	+40	+1	-6	-7	+18	4.7
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	216	180	51	12	0	6	30	37	0	2	1	.283	.386	.450	.836	.167	.315	17	14	.343	121	+5	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.8
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	29	MLB	Houston Astros	118	95	33	8	0	11	19	11	3	1	0	.347	.470	.779	1.249	.432	.297	9	16	.484	229	+17	+0	-0	-1	+3	1.9
ROS	29	MLB	HOU	392	333	103	22	1	24	49	58	7	3	1	.309	.409	.598	1.006	.288	.309	15	12	.430	187	+39	+0	-5	-4	+11	4.1
TOT	29	MLB	HOU	510	428	136	30	1	35	68	69	10	4	1	.318	.423	.638	1.061	.320	.309	14	13	.443	197	+56	+0	-6	-5	+14	6.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	30	MLB	HOU	417	355	108	23	1	25	52	54	7	2	0	.304	.403	.586	.989	.282	.297	13	12	.427	185	+40	+0	-8	-4	+12	4.1
2028	31	MLB	HOU	402	342	103	22	1	24	50	54	7	0	0	.301	.401	.582	.983	.281	.296	13	12	.423	182	+37	+0	-8	-4	+11	3.7
2029	32	MLB	HOU	383	325	97	21	1	22	48	53	7	0	0	.298	.400	.572	.972	.274	.295	14	13	.418	178	+34	+0	-9	-4	+11	3.2
2030	33	MLB	HOU	353	300	89	19	1	20	44	51	6	0	0	.297	.397	.567	.964	.270	.293	14	12	.412	173	+29	+0	-9	-4	+10	2.7
2031	34	MLB	HOU	309	263	75	16	0	17	38	48	5	0	0	.285	.386	.540	.926	.255	.291	16	12	.404	167	+24	+0	-9	-3	+9	2.0
2032	35	MLB	HOU	256	218	60	13	0	13	32	42	4	0	0	.275	.378	.514	.892	.239	.288	16	12	.395	160	+17	+0	-9	-3	+7	1.3
2033	36	MLB	HOU	199	170	46	10	0	10	24	35	3	0	0	.271	.371	.506	.876	.235	.284	18	12	.384	152	+12	+0	-9	-2	+6	0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			6683	5767	1663	352	13	369	764	1266	90	33	8	.288	.380	.546	.926	.257	.309	19	11	.394	160	+453	+3	-81	-72	+189	50.3
/ 162G	—			650	561	161	34	1	36	74	123	9	3	1	.287	.379	.544	.923	.257	.307	19	11	.394	160	+44	+0	-8	-7	+18	4.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	57	44	15	2	1	1	12	7	0	2	1	.341	.482	.500	.982	.159	.378	12	21	.431	188	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2017	20	A+	Buies Creek Astros	252	224	62	11	3	3	19	41	2	6	1	.277	.339	.393	.732	.116	.316	16	8	.320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+7	0.9
2017	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	139	111	40	6	0	9	23	36	2	2	0	.360	.478	.658	1.136	.297	.449	26	17	.479	225	+20	+0	—	—	+4	2.4
2017	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	17	16	5	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	.312	.353	.438	.790	.125	.500	35	6	.349	125	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2018	21	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	189	166	43	8	0	8	23	47	0	1	0	.259	.349	.452	.801	.193	.315	25	12	.357	131	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.2
2018	21	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	190	169	55	13	0	12	19	45	0	5	2	.325	.394	.615	1.009	.290	.377	24	10	.432	189	+19	+0	—	—	+5	2.5
2019	22	MLB	Houston Astros	369	313	98	26	0	27	52	94	2	0	0	.313	.414	.655	1.069	.342	.366	25	14	.455	207	+44	+0	-2	-7	+10	4.8
2019	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	253	213	73	16	0	23	38	50	1	2	1	.343	.444	.742	1.186	.399	.355	20	15	.500	240	+40	+0	—	—	+7	4.8
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	598	537	149	35	1	33	50	145	8	1	0	.277	.348	.531	.879	.253	.320	24	8	.382	150	+34	+0	-1	-6	+17	4.4
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	561	470	144	29	2	37	78	106	6	1	1	.306	.412	.613	1.024	.306	.320	19	14	.437	192	+59	-0	-2	-6	+16	6.8
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	496	410	120	24	1	31	69	92	13	0	0	.293	.411	.583	.993	.290	.306	19	14	.429	186	+48	+0	-2	-5	+14	5.6
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	635	552	170	34	2	35	69	95	10	6	0	.308	.395	.567	.962	.259	.317	15	11	.417	177	+55	+1	-6	-7	+18	6.3
2025	28	MLB	Houston Astros	199	165	45	8	0	6	28	33	0	1	1	.273	.378	.430	.809	.158	.295	17	14	.354	129	+6	-0	-1	-2	+6	0.8
2025	28	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	17	15	7	4	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	.467	.529	.733	1.263	.267	.583	18	12	.544	274	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			2858	2447	726	156	6	169	346	565	39	9	2	.297	.392	.573	.965	.276	.320	20	12	.416	177	+247	+1	-14	-34	+81	28.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yordan Alvarez (OGILVIE)	29	60	60	40	45	.304/.404/.586	.282	.299	31	4	13%	13%	187	+6.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Miguel Cabrera 2012 · MLB	29	63→68	63→65	42→45	64	.326/.417/.576	.250	.342	30	4	14%	13%	188	+7.8	.327/.407/.585	.258	.343	33	3	15%	12%	187	+7.8	.326/.401/.582	.256	.343	34	2	15%	11%	169	+7.3
★Todd Helton 2004 · MLB	30	64→69	65→70	41→45	68	.335/.434/.610	.275	.344	31	4	13%	15%	202	+8.8	.329/.440/.566	.237	.346	24	3	11%	16%	194	+8.2	.321/.439/.539	.218	.338	21	3	11%	17%	169	+7.1
★Travis Hafner 2006 · MLB	29	57→60	64→70	44→40	57	.294/.389/.557	.264	.334	30	3	21%	12%	173	+6.8	.284/.397/.539	.255	.316	31	2	20%	15%	171	+6.7	.268/.391/.501	.233	.296	29	1	19%	16%	143	+3.9
★David Ortiz 2005 · MLB	29	53→63	67→70	43→40	56	.287/.365/.564	.277	.305	33	2	19%	11%	165	+6.2	.296/.397/.599	.303	.308	38	2	18%	14%	186	+7.7	.303/.418/.614	.311	.310	39	1	17%	16%	184	+8.6
★Freddie Freeman 2018 · MLB	28	58→65	64→65	47→50	58	.300/.393/.564	.264	.344	30	7	21%	12%	176	+7.0	.302/.391/.542	.240	.342	27	8	19%	12%	170	+6.6	.312/.399/.517	.205	.345	22	12	15%	11%	156	+6.6
★Adrián González 2011 · MLB	29	54→64	63→65	43→30	64	.285/.386/.522	.236	.303	31	1	17%	14%	162	+6.0	.297/.369/.492	.195	.329	23	2	16%	10%	148	+5.1	.297/.358/.473	.175	.331	20	1	16%	8%	129	+4.2
★Prince Fielder 2012 · MLB	28	52→61	62→70	41→45	67	.277/.398/.511	.234	.297	29	2	18%	15%	164	+6.2	.285/.385/.482	.197	.307	24	2	15%	13%	152	+5.3	.286/.382/.471	.185	.307	22	1	14%	12%	133	+3.5
★Lance Berkman 2007 · MLB	31	57→65	65→70	43→50	69	.304/.417/.563	.259	.315	32	5	15%	16%	184	+7.6	.291/.399/.537	.246	.315	30	9	17%	15%	171	+6.7	.286/.401/.525	.238	.313	28	10	17%	15%	154	+5.8
●Justin Morneau 2011 · MLB	30	57→61	61→65	43→30	61	.298/.382/.534	.237	.311	28	2	15%	12%	164	+6.2	.266/.337/.447	.181	.294	21	2	17%	9%	124	+3.4	.270/.333/.432	.162	.297	18	0	15%	8%	111	+2.4
★Ryan Howard 2009 · MLB	29	48→58	74→70	44→40	58	.271/.375/.574	.303	.316	43	2	28%	14%	171	+6.7	.265/.351/.526	.261	.318	35	4	27%	11%	150	+5.2	.264/.350/.510	.246	.316	32	3	26%	11%	132	+4.3
●Mark Teixeira 2010 · MLB	30	56→59	64→65	49→40	61	.297/.391/.551	.254	.313	31	2	16%	12%	172	+6.7	.259/.357/.483	.224	.272	28	3	16%	12%	141	+4.6	.243/.343/.454	.211	.253	27	2	16%	12%	122	+3.5
★Carlos Delgado 2002 · MLB	30	58→66	67→70	46→30	68	.304/.427/.582	.278	.325	33	3	17%	16%	193	+8.1	.286/.408/.556	.270	.314	33	2	19%	15%	179	+7.2	.287/.401/.563	.276	.316	34	0	20%	13%	161	+6.2
★Anthony Rizzo 2018 · MLB	28	53→56	61→65	45	61	.281/.386/.517	.236	.290	27	9	15%	12%	161	+6.0	.275/.379/.489	.214	.283	26	7	14%	11%	152	+5.3	.270/.378/.477	.207	.275	26	6	13%	11%	138	+3.7
★Joey Votto 2012 · MLB	28	61→70	59→65	46→50	64	.308/.408/.535	.226	.350	25	9	19%	14%	174	+6.9	.304/.426/.504	.200	.361	19	7	19%	17%	173	+6.8	.317/.450/.543	.225	.355	25	7	16%	19%	172	+7.7
★Aramis Ramirez 2007 · MLB	29	55→59	66→70	40→45	54	.297/.356/.556	.259	.283	34	2	11%	8%	160	+5.9	.296/.364/.531	.235	.301	28	3	12%	9%	157	+5.7	.301/.377/.525	.225	.313	26	2	13%	9%	152	+4.6
★Magglio Ordonez 2004 · MLB	30	59→69	62→65	46→50	56	.311/.376/.551	.240	.311	29	11	11%	9%	167	+6.4	.298/.358/.493	.195	.309	23	5	12%	8%	144	+4.8	.323/.387/.518	.194	.343	22	2	12%	9%	157	+6.1
★Derrek Lee 2006 · MLB	30	56→64	66→65	49→50	59	.296/.383/.561	.264	.316	32	13	18%	12%	172	+6.7	.303/.382/.526	.223	.339	26	11	18%	11%	162	+6.0	.302/.384/.512	.209	.340	24	5	17%	11%	153	+5.9
★Albert Pujols 2009 · MLB	29	62→67	68→70	41→50	71	.333/.435/.612	.279	.316	34	6	9%	15%	204	+8.9	.321/.423/.614	.293	.306	37	10	10%	14%	200	+8.7	.313/.412/.610	.297	.292	39	11	10%	14%	165	+7.1
★Chipper Jones 2001 · MLB	29	56→66	63→65	46→50	66	.298/.391/.539	.241	.288	30	12	10%	13%	169	+6.5	.315/.413/.555	.240	.323	29	8	12%	14%	181	+7.3	.318/.422/.548	.231	.331	27	6	13%	15%	165	+6.9
★Matt Holliday 2008 · MLB	28	63→66	62→65	51→50	51	.325/.386/.570	.245	.355	28	11	17%	8%	176	+7.0	.319/.396/.546	.227	.353	25	15	16%	10%	173	+6.8	.317/.400/.535	.218	.346	24	16	15%	11%	161	+6.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)