Yordan Alvarez — OGILVIE

Yordan AlvarezLF Houston Astros

Age 29 L/R 6'4" / 237 lbs MLB HR +6% Svc 6.657 · Ctrl thru 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION420 act + 280 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 224179vR 161

AVG/OBP/SLG.308 / .410 / .599

PA280

HR18

K%17

BB%14

BABIP318

ISO291

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 60

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

906.0%

xwOBA

900.431

POWER60

Barrel%

9015.8

Avg EV

9093.9

Bat Spd

8775.2

EYE45

Chase%

9022.0%

SPEED40

Sprint

1024.8

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 955 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

287

668

—

wRC+

213

150

◀◀L

wOBA

463

381

◀◀L

ISO

299

240

◀◀L

BABIP

392

277

◀◀L

16.0%

13.9%

▶R

BB%

7.3%

10.3%

▶▶R

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.657 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$8M	+3.2	$26M	+$18M
2027	Ext	$20M	+7.3	$54M	+$37M
2028	Ext	$20M	+7.0	$48M	+$32M
Totals		$47M		$128M	+$87M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	57	49	14	2	1	1	7	10	0	2	1	286	375	429	804	143	333	18	12	328	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	57	44	15	2	1	1	12	7	0	2	1	341	482	500	982	159	378	12	21	431	188	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	3 teams	—	408	367	92	15	2	9	27	113	4	8	1	251	309	376	685	125	325	28	7	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A+	3 teams	—	408	351	107	17	4	12	43	83	4	8	1	305	387	479	866	174	357	20	11	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	2 teams	—	379	350	82	16	0	16	27	121	0	6	2	234	289	417	706	183	307	32	7	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	2 teams	—	379	335	98	21	0	20	42	92	0	6	2	293	371	534	906	242	347	24	11	394	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	2 teams	—	622	546	163	38	0	47	70	156	3	2	1	299	381	626	1.008	328	335	25	11	426	184	+59	+0	-2	-7	+18	7.0
2019	22	MLB	2 teams	—	622	526	171	42	0	50	90	144	3	2	1	325	426	690	1.117	365	361	23	14	473	220	+85	+0	-2	-7	+18	9.6
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	598	537	144	33	1	31	50	145	8	1	0	268	339	507	846	238	310	24	8	363	136	+25	+0	-1	-6	+17	3.5
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	598	537	149	35	1	33	50	145	8	1	0	277	348	531	879	253	320	24	8	382	150	+34	+0	-1	-6	+17	4.4
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	561	470	140	28	2	35	78	106	6	1	1	298	404	589	994	291	312	19	14	409	171	+45	-0	-2	-6	+16	5.4
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	561	470	144	29	2	37	78	106	6	1	1	306	412	613	1.024	306	320	19	14	437	192	+59	-0	-2	-6	+16	6.8
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	496	410	116	23	1	29	69	92	13	0	0	283	402	556	959	273	297	19	14	406	169	+39	+0	-2	-5	+14	4.6
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	496	410	120	24	1	31	69	92	13	0	0	293	411	583	993	290	306	19	14	429	186	+48	+0	-2	-5	+14	5.6
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	635	552	166	33	2	33	69	95	10	6	0	301	388	547	935	246	311	15	11	384	152	+38	+1	-6	-7	+18	4.5
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	635	552	170	34	2	35	69	95	10	6	0	308	395	567	962	259	317	15	11	417	177	+55	+1	-6	-7	+18	6.3
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	—	216	180	52	12	0	6	30	37	0	2	1	289	390	456	846	167	322	17	14	339	118	+4	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.7
2025	28	MLB	2 teams	—	216	180	52	12	0	6	30	36	0	2	1	289	390	456	846	167	319	17	14	368	140	+10	+0	-1	-2	+6	1.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	HOU	—	420	349	111	17	0	31	63	72	5	1	0	318	429	633	1.062	315	321	17	15	425	183	+40	+0	-0	-4	+12	4.8
YTD	29	MLB	HOU	—	420	349	111	17	0	31	63	72	5	1	0	318	429	633	1.062	315	321	17	15	455	206	+50	+0	-0	-4	+12	5.9
ROS	29	MLB	HOU	100%	280	237	73	15	0	18	38	47	3	1	0	308	410	599	1.009	291	321	17	14	437	192	+29	+0	-2	-3	+8	3.3
ROS	29	MLB	HOU	100%	280	237	74	15	0	18	38	47	3	1	0	312	414	603	1.017	291	325	17	14	434	190	+29	+0	-2	-3	+8	3.3
FULL	29	MLB	HOU	—	700	586	185	32	0	49	101	119	8	2	0	316	423	621	1.044	305	322	17	14	429	186	+68	+0	-2	-8	+20	8.0
TOT	29	MLB	HOU	—	700	586	184	32	0	49	101	119	8	2	0	314	422	619	1.041	305	320	17	14	430	187	+69	+0	-2	-8	+20	8.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	HOU	100%	660	557	172	35	1	41	90	113	8	3	1	309	412	596	1.008	287	318	17	14	433	190	+67	+0	-6	-7	+19	7.4
2028	31	MLB	HOU	100%	660	557	170	34	1	41	90	115	8	2	1	305	409	591	1.000	285	315	17	14	429	186	+64	+0	-7	-7	+19	7.1
2029	32	MLB	HOU	100%	659	557	166	33	1	40	89	117	8	2	0	298	402	576	978	278	310	18	14	421	181	+60	+0	-7	-7	+19	6.6
2030	33	MLB	HOU	100%	568	479	139	27	0	34	77	104	7	1	0	290	396	559	956	269	303	18	14	412	173	+47	+0	-8	-6	+16	5.1
2031	34	MLB	HOU	100%	480	407	114	21	0	28	65	91	5	1	0	280	386	538	924	258	294	19	14	400	164	+35	+0	-8	-5	+14	3.7
2032	35	MLB	HOU	100%	406	345	91	16	0	22	54	80	4	0	0	264	370	501	871	238	284	20	13	386	154	+25	+0	-8	-4	+12	2.4
2033	36	MLB	HOU	100%	185	157	41	7	0	10	24	38	2	0	0	261	366	497	863	236	274	21	13	372	143	+9	+0	-7	-2	+5	0.5
2034	37	MLB	HOU	100%	124	106	26	4	0	6	16	26	1	0	0	245	350	453	802	208	265	21	13	358	132	+5	+0	-8	-1	+4	-0.1
2027	30	MLB	HOU	100%	660	557	174	35	1	43	90	113	8	3	1	312	415	610	1.026	298	322	17	14	430	188	+65	+0	-6	-7	+19	7.3
2028	31	MLB	HOU	100%	660	557	172	35	1	42	90	115	8	2	1	309	412	601	1.014	293	319	17	14	426	184	+63	+0	-7	-7	+19	6.9
2029	32	MLB	HOU	100%	659	557	168	33	1	41	89	117	8	2	0	302	405	585	990	284	314	18	14	418	178	+58	+0	-7	-7	+19	6.4
2030	33	MLB	HOU	100%	568	479	141	27	0	35	77	104	7	1	0	294	400	570	970	276	307	18	14	409	171	+46	+0	-8	-6	+16	4.9
2031	34	MLB	HOU	100%	480	407	114	21	0	28	65	91	5	1	0	280	386	538	924	258	298	19	14	397	162	+34	+0	-8	-5	+14	3.5
2032	35	MLB	HOU	100%	406	345	93	17	0	23	54	80	4	0	0	270	375	519	894	249	287	20	13	383	152	+24	+0	-8	-4	+12	2.3
2033	36	MLB	HOU	100%	185	157	41	7	0	10	24	38	2	0	0	261	366	497	863	236	277	21	13	369	141	+8	+0	-7	-2	+5	0.4
2034	37	MLB	HOU	100%	124	106	26	4	0	6	16	26	1	0	0	245	350	453	802	208	268	21	13	355	130	+4	+0	-8	-1	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	6880	5849	1729	350	9	415	889	1296	85	19	4	296	396	571	968	276	314	19	13	413	174	+578	+2	-74	-77	+195	63.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	553	163	33	1	39	84	122	8	2	0	295	395	570	965	275	313	19	13	413	174	+55	+0	-7	-7	+18	6.0
Career	—			—	7994	6863	1961	392	12	447	970	1606	90	38	9	286	381	542	923	256	311	20	12	394	160	+542	+4	-74	-86	+226	62.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	558	159	32	1	36	79	131	7	3	1	285	380	539	920	254	311	20	12	394	160	+44	+0	-6	-7	+18	5.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2016	19	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	—	57	44	15	2	1	1	12	7	0	2	1	341	482	500	982	159	378	12	21	431	188	+6	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2017	20	A+	Buies Creek Astros	—	252	224	62	11	3	3	19	41	2	6	1	277	339	393	732	116	316	16	8	320	103	+1	+1	—	—	+7	0.9
2017	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	139	111	40	6	0	9	23	36	2	2	0	360	478	658	1.136	297	449	26	17	479	225	+20	+0	—	—	+4	2.4
2017	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	17	16	5	0	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	312	353	438	790	125	500	35	6	349	125	+0	+0	—	—	+0	0.1
2018	21	AAA	Fresno Grizzlies	—	189	166	43	8	0	8	23	47	0	1	0	259	349	452	801	193	315	25	12	357	131	+7	+0	—	—	+5	1.2
2018	21	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	190	169	55	13	0	12	19	45	0	5	2	325	394	615	1.009	290	377	24	10	432	189	+19	+0	—	—	+5	2.5
2019	22	MLB	Houston Astros	—	369	313	98	26	0	27	52	94	2	0	0	313	414	655	1.069	342	366	25	14	455	207	+44	+0	-2	-7	+10	4.8
2019	22	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	253	213	73	16	0	23	38	50	1	2	1	343	444	742	1.186	399	355	20	15	500	240	+40	+0	—	—	+7	4.8
2021	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	598	537	149	35	1	33	50	145	8	1	0	277	348	531	879	253	320	24	8	382	150	+34	+0	-1	-6	+17	4.4
2022	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	561	470	144	29	2	37	78	106	6	1	1	306	412	613	1.024	306	320	19	14	437	192	+59	-0	-2	-6	+16	6.8
2023	26	MLB	Houston Astros	—	496	410	120	24	1	31	69	92	13	0	0	293	411	583	993	290	306	19	14	429	186	+48	+0	-2	-5	+14	5.6
2024	27	MLB	Houston Astros	—	635	552	170	34	2	35	69	95	10	6	0	308	395	567	962	259	317	15	11	417	177	+55	+1	-6	-7	+18	6.3
2025	28	MLB	Houston Astros	—	199	165	45	8	0	6	28	33	0	1	1	273	378	430	809	158	295	17	14	354	129	+6	-0	-1	-2	+6	0.8
2025	28	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	17	15	7	4	0	0	2	3	0	1	0	467	529	733	1.263	267	583	18	12	544	274	+3	+0	—	—	+0	0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2858	2447	726	156	6	169	346	565	39	9	2	297	392	573	965	276	320	20	12	416	177	+247	+1	-14	-34	+81	28.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Cabreralast yr '23 MVP×2ROYAS×12SS×7HOF career totals — 21 seasons, 11,796 PA	21	11,796	511	40	306	382	518	-133	-139	79.2	65.6
	/162	664	29	2	306	382	518	-7.5	-7.8	4.5	pk7: 52
#2David Ortizlast yr '16 AS×10SS×7HOF career totals — 17 seasons, 9,689 PA	17	9,689	531	16	287	380	557	-152	-13	80.7	63.8
	/162	664	36	1	287	380	557	-10.4	-0.9	5.5	pk7: 47
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	7,691	458	25	295	392	568	-84	-36	76.4	61.7
	/162	664	40	2	295	392	568	-7.3	-3.1	6.6	pk7: 47
#3Lance Berkmanlast yr '13 AS×6SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,708 PA	14	7,708	362	81	294	407	539	-103	-78	63.4	55.7
	/162	664	31	7	294	407	539	-8.8	-6.7	5.5	pk7: 48
#4Vladimir Guerrerolast yr '11 MVPAS×9SS×8HOF career totals — 12 seasons, 7,327 PA	12	7,327	357	153	318	381	549	-66	-56	60.9	53.7
	/162	664	32	14	318	381	549	-6.0	-5.0	5.5	pk7: 47
#5Jim Thomelast yr '12 AS×5SSHOF career totals — 13 seasons, 6,531 PA	13	6,531	416	3	270	396	558	-73	-26	59.7	52.4
	/162	664	42	0	270	396	558	-7.5	-2.6	6.1	pk7: 45
#6Gary Sheffieldlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,399 PA	10	5,399	273	97	294	394	527	-49	-71	41.3	40.1
	/162	664	34	12	294	394	527	-6.1	-8.8	5.1	pk7: 39

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Yordan Alvarez (OGILVIE)	29	60	60	40	45	314/422/619	305	320	49	2	17%	14%	187	+8.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
★Travis Hafner 2006 · MLB	29	57→60	65→70	44→40	58	297/394/564	267	337	31	3	21%	12%	176	+7.0	280/395/529	249	312	30	2	20%	15%	167	+6.4	268/391/501	233	296	29	1	19%	16%	143	+3.9
★David Ortiz 2005 · MLB	29	54→64	68→70	44→40	57	289/367/572	283	307	34	2	19%	11%	168	+6.4	297/400/601	304	308	39	2	17%	15%	188	+7.8	303/418/614	311	310	39	1	17%	16%	184	+8.6
★Prince Fielder 2013 · MLB	29	58→63	62→70	45	65	306/413/546	240	318	30	2	15%	14%	180	+7.2	292/379/479	187	316	22	2	15%	11%	149	+5.1	288/372/454	166	314	20	0	14%	10%	128	+3.2
★Miguel Cabrera 2011 · MLB	28	61→71	66→70	42→45	59	322/400/587	265	338	34	4	16%	11%	186	+7.7	345/429/625	280	360	35	4	14%	13%	206	+9.1	353/441/643	290	365	38	3	14%	13%	198	+9.6
★Adrián González 2011 · MLB	29	55→65	63→65	43→30	64	290/391/528	238	308	31	1	17%	14%	166	+6.3	306/374/501	195	341	22	2	16%	10%	153	+5.4	308/367/490	182	344	20	1	16%	8%	137	+4.9
★Todd Helton 2003 · MLB	29	63→69	67→70	45	67	330/428/616	286	338	33	6	14%	14%	202	+8.8	336/444/592	256	351	27	3	12%	16%	202	+8.8	340/457/591	251	355	25	2	11%	17%	188	+8.7
★Carlos Delgado 2002 · MLB	30	57→66	67→70	46→30	68	302/425/579	277	323	33	3	18%	16%	191	+8.0	284/406/553	269	312	33	2	20%	15%	178	+7.1	287/401/563	276	316	34	0	20%	13%	161	+6.2
★Ryan Howard 2009 · MLB	29	47→57	73→70	44→40	57	266/368/565	299	310	42	2	28%	14%	166	+6.3	266/350/524	258	319	34	4	27%	11%	149	+5.1	265/351/512	247	316	33	3	26%	11%	135	+4.5
★Lance Berkman 2004 · MLB	28	57→65	62→70	44→50	67	294/407/547	252	318	28	6	17%	15%	176	+7.0	300/418/545	245	321	28	6	15%	16%	180	+7.3	305/427/564	259	320	31	5	15%	17%	173	+7.2
★Freddie Freeman 2018 · MLB	28	58→68	63→65	46→50	59	297/391/553	255	342	29	7	21%	12%	173	+6.8	303/392/537	234	343	27	8	19%	12%	169	+6.5	324/409/538	215	358	24	12	15%	11%	164	+7.3
★Max Muncy 2020 · MLB	29	48	67→70	45	61	264/376/531	267	306	36	5	26%	14%	160	+5.9	241/360/492	251	268	33	4	24%	15%	145	+4.9	224/349/478	254	243	34	2	24%	15%	132	+3.8
★Corey Seager 2022 · MLB	28	58→63	60→65	46→45	55	299/372/530	231	324	27	3	17%	10%	160	+5.9	277/349/509	232	290	30	3	16%	9%	145	+4.9	287/368/531	243	307	32	2	18%	11%	145	+4.1
★Mark Teixeira 2009 · MLB	29	57→59	62→65	48→40	63	299/395/539	240	318	29	2	16%	13%	170	+6.6	274/371/512	238	288	29	3	16%	12%	154	+5.5	259/360/495	236	267	30	2	16%	12%	139	+5.2
★Manny Ramirez 2002 · MLB	30	60→68	72→70	41→30	61	316/415/622	306	363	39	2	23%	14%	199	+8.6	322/419/606	284	349	36	2	18%	13%	196	+8.4	323/423/608	285	341	36	2	16%	14%	180	+7.5
★Aramis Ramirez 2007 · MLB	29	55→59	66→70	41→45	54	295/354/555	260	280	34	2	11%	8%	160	+5.9	296/366/529	233	303	28	3	13%	9%	157	+5.7	301/377/525	225	313	26	2	13%	9%	152	+4.6
●Justin Morneau 2011 · MLB	30	57→60	61→65	44→30	62	299/385/533	235	316	27	2	15%	12%	165	+6.2	265/335/436	171	296	19	2	17%	9%	120	+3.1	264/327/416	152	291	17	0	15%	8%	105	+2.0
★Joey Votto 2012 · MLB	28	60→69	60→65	46→50	64	305/407/534	229	345	26	9	19%	14%	173	+6.8	299/423/495	196	354	19	7	19%	17%	170	+6.6	309/443/533	223	344	26	7	16%	19%	172	+7.7
★J.D. Martinez 2017 · MLB	29	59→63	64→70	43→45	47	303/363/554	251	371	31	4	26%	8%	163	+6.1	298/370/582	284	346	38	5	24%	10%	173	+6.8	297/376/588	292	333	40	4	23%	11%	166	+6.3
●Anthony Rendon 2020 · MLB	30	59→60	62→65	48→50	61	306/393/553	247	318	28	5	14%	11%	173	+6.8	275/371/477	202	297	22	4	15%	12%	145	+4.9	253/362/425	172	279	18	2	16%	13%	124	+1.3
★Jim Thome 2001 · MLB	30	52→54	64→80	47→30	66	269/391/520	251	321	31	3	25%	16%	163	+6.1	284/409/597	313	332	42	2	26%	17%	189	+7.9	284/414/616	332	323	45	0	26%	18%	182	+8.0