J.D. Martinez — OGILVIE

J.D. MartinezDH New York Mets

Age 38 R/R 6'3" / 230 lbs MLB Svc 15.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 338 proj PA

wRC+†vL 141126vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.262 / .340 / .496

PA338

HR17

K%28

BB%10

ISO236

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2022-2024

CONTACT60

Whiff%

1215.3%

xwOBA

900.357

POWER55

Barrel%

9014.7

Avg EV

7891.0

Bat Spd

6573.0

EYE60

Chase%

3534.6%

SPEED36

Sprint

1625.8

DEFENSE45

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024 · 495 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

138

357

—

wRC+

141

◀◀L

wOBA

370

304

◀◀L

ISO

203

158

◀◀L

BABIP

338

298

◀L

27.5%

28.8%

◀L

BB%

13.0%

8.7%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2011

Service 15.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+0.5	$2M	-$1.0M
Totals		$3M		$2M	-$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	21	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	83	79	24	6	1	4	3	20	1	0	0	304	337	557	894	253	364	24	4	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	83	77	31	9	1	5	5	14	1	0	0	403	446	740	1.186	338	448	17	6	509	248	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A	2 teams	—	601	559	168	38	5	12	27	131	13	5	2	301	347	451	798	150	373	22	4	343	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A	2 teams	—	601	537	183	40	4	18	48	97	13	5	2	341	407	531	938	190	389	16	8	412	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA	2 teams	—	596	543	152	39	1	17	37	115	6	1	1	280	333	449	782	169	321	19	6	336	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA	2 teams	—	596	525	164	38	1	19	55	103	6	1	1	312	384	497	881	185	351	17	9	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB	2 teams	—	534	488	110	18	3	10	42	117	1	0	3	225	288	336	624	111	275	22	8	281	73	-16	-1	-4	-6	+15	-1.2
2012	24	MLB	2 teams	—	534	485	116	20	3	11	44	113	1	0	3	239	303	361	664	122	288	21	8	298	86	-8	-1	-4	-6	+15	-0.4
2013	25	MLB	3 teams	—	436	418	102	23	0	10	13	110	1	2	0	244	269	371	639	127	305	25	3	276	69	-15	+0	-7	-5	+12	-1.4
2013	25	MLB	3 teams	—	436	409	109	25	0	14	21	106	1	2	0	267	303	430	734	164	324	24	5	321	104	+2	+0	-7	-5	+12	0.3
2014	26	MLB	2 teams	—	551	507	164	34	4	35	32	146	6	8	3	323	371	613	984	290	389	26	6	409	171	+44	+0	-8	-6	+16	4.7
2014	26	MLB	2 teams	—	551	506	159	33	4	33	33	143	6	8	3	314	363	591	954	277	375	26	6	409	171	+44	+0	-8	-6	+16	4.8
2015	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	657	596	176	35	2	42	53	178	5	3	2	295	358	572	930	277	354	27	8	389	156	+42	-0	+3	-7	+19	5.7
2015	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	657	596	168	33	2	38	53	178	5	3	2	282	346	535	881	253	339	27	8	382	151	+38	-0	+3	-7	+19	5.3
2016	28	MLB	2 teams	—	555	496	155	39	2	24	50	141	4	2	2	312	380	544	924	232	390	25	9	394	160	+37	-0	-14	-6	+16	3.4
2016	28	MLB	2 teams	—	555	496	151	38	2	22	50	139	4	2	2	304	373	522	895	218	379	25	9	389	156	+35	-0	-14	-6	+16	3.1
2017	29	MLB	2 teams	—	507	448	128	25	3	44	54	135	0	4	0	286	363	650	1.012	364	307	27	11	413	175	+43	+1	-10	-5	+14	4.4
2017	29	MLB	2 teams	—	507	447	132	26	3	46	55	134	0	4	0	295	373	676	1.048	380	316	26	11	442	196	+55	+1	-10	-5	+14	5.6
2018	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	649	569	181	33	2	43	69	146	4	6	1	318	396	610	1.005	292	357	22	11	414	175	+55	+1	-6	-7	+18	6.2
2018	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	649	569	188	37	2	43	69	146	4	6	1	330	407	629	1.036	299	375	22	11	443	197	+71	+1	-6	-7	+18	7.8
2019	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	657	576	168	29	2	36	72	138	4	2	0	292	374	536	911	245	324	21	11	382	151	+38	+0	-3	-7	+19	4.8
2019	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	657	575	175	33	2	36	72	138	4	2	0	304	385	557	941	252	342	21	11	408	170	+52	+0	-3	-7	+19	6.2
2020	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	237	211	42	14	0	7	22	59	2	1	0	199	281	365	646	166	238	25	9	279	72	-8	+0	-1	-3	+7	-0.4
2020	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	237	211	45	16	0	7	22	59	2	1	0	213	294	389	682	175	259	25	9	303	90	-3	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.1
2021	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	634	571	157	38	4	28	55	150	3	0	0	275	342	503	844	228	324	24	9	354	129	+21	+0	-1	-7	+18	3.2
2021	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	634	570	163	42	3	28	55	150	3	0	0	286	351	518	869	232	340	24	9	377	147	+33	+0	-1	-7	+18	4.4
2022	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	596	534	138	38	1	16	52	145	5	0	0	258	330	423	753	165	323	24	9	330	111	+7	+0	+0	-6	+17	1.8
2022	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	596	533	146	43	1	16	52	145	5	0	0	274	343	448	792	174	345	24	9	349	125	+17	+0	+0	-6	+17	2.8
2023	35	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	479	434	121	28	2	35	34	149	2	1	0	279	334	594	929	316	332	31	7	387	154	+29	+0	+0	-5	+14	3.9
2023	35	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	479	432	117	27	2	33	34	149	2	1	0	271	326	572	897	301	324	31	7	379	148	+26	+0	+0	-5	+14	3.5
2024	36	MLB	New York Mets	—	495	438	102	24	1	16	49	141	6	0	0	233	318	402	720	169	304	28	10	319	103	+1	+0	+0	-5	+14	1.0
2024	36	MLB	New York Mets	—	495	434	102	24	1	16	49	141	6	0	0	235	318	406	724	171	308	28	10	322	105	+3	+0	+0	-5	+14	1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	38	MLB	NYM	—	338	299	79	17	1	17	33	95	3	3	1	264	343	498	842	234	327	28	10	367	139	+15	+0	-0	-4	+10	1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	39	MLB	NYM	100%	229	204	52	11	1	11	21	65	2	1	0	255	330	480	811	225	313	28	9	350	126	+7	+0	-8	-2	+6	0.2
2028	40	MLB	NYM	100%	157	140	35	7	1	7	15	45	1	0	0	250	327	464	791	214	302	29	10	339	117	+3	+0	-9	-2	+4	-0.3
2029	41	MLB	NYM	100%	88	79	18	3	0	4	8	25	1	0	0	228	307	418	725	190	291	28	9	327	109	+1	+0	-10	-1	+2	-0.8
2027	39	MLB	NYM	100%	229	204	52	11	1	11	21	65	2	1	0	255	330	480	811	225	313	28	9	342	120	+5	+0	-8	-2	+6	0.1
2028	40	MLB	NYM	100%	157	140	35	7	1	7	15	45	1	0	0	250	327	464	791	214	302	29	10	331	112	+2	+0	-9	-2	+4	-0.4
2029	41	MLB	NYM	100%	88	79	18	3	0	4	8	25	1	0	0	228	307	418	725	190	291	28	9	320	103	+0	+0	-10	-1	+2	-0.8
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7339	6575	1846	411	26	353	645	1849	44	27	11	281	348	512	861	231	337	25	9	373	144	+361	+1	-72	-86	+208	42.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	163	36	2	31	57	164	4	2	1	280	348	509	856	229	336	25	9	373	144	+32	+0	-6	-8	+18	3.7
Career	—			—	9079	8189	2272	499	36	418	741	2251	70	39	15	277	343	500	843	223	331	25	8	358	132	+332	+2	-72	-97	+257	43.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	163	36	3	30	53	161	5	3	1	278	343	503	847	225	332	25	8	358	132	+24	+0	-5	-7	+18	3.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2009	21	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	83	77	31	9	1	5	5	14	1	0	0	403	446	740	1.186	338	448	17	6	509	248	+14	+0	—	—	+2	1.7
2010	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	208	189	57	9	1	3	15	42	2	2	2	302	357	407	765	106	372	20	7	342	120	+5	-0	—	—	+6	1.0
2010	22	A	Lexington Legends	—	393	348	126	31	3	15	33	55	11	3	0	362	434	598	1.031	236	398	14	8	450	202	+45	+1	—	—	+11	5.8
2011	23	MLB	Houston Astros	—	226	208	57	13	0	6	13	48	2	0	1	274	323	423	746	149	325	21	6	328	109	+2	-0	+5	-6	+6	0.7
2011	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	370	317	107	25	1	13	42	55	4	1	0	338	421	546	967	208	367	15	11	418	178	+33	+0	—	—	+10	4.4
2012	24	MLB	Houston Astros	—	439	395	95	14	3	11	40	96	1	0	2	241	311	375	686	134	290	22	9	307	93	-3	-1	-4	-6	+12	-0.1
2012	24	AAA	Oklahoma City RedHawks	—	95	90	21	6	0	0	4	17	0	0	1	233	266	300	566	67	284	18	4	253	52	-5	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2013	25	MLB	Houston Astros	—	310	296	74	17	0	7	10	82	0	2	0	250	274	378	652	128	319	26	3	286	77	-8	+0	-7	-5	+9	-1.1
2013	25	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	20	20	6	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	300	300	550	850	250	278	5	0	368	140	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2013	25	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	106	93	29	6	0	6	11	23	1	0	0	312	390	570	960	258	354	22	10	415	176	+9	+0	—	—	+3	1.2
2014	26	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	480	441	139	30	3	23	30	126	3	6	3	315	363	553	916	238	389	26	6	395	160	+33	+0	-8	-6	+14	3.3
2014	26	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	71	65	20	3	1	10	3	17	3	2	0	308	366	846	1.212	538	263	24	4	507	246	+12	+0	—	—	+2	1.4
2015	27	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	657	596	168	33	2	38	53	178	5	3	2	282	346	535	881	253	339	27	8	382	151	+38	-0	+3	-7	+19	5.3
2016	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	517	460	141	35	2	22	49	128	3	1	2	307	377	535	912	228	378	25	9	396	161	+36	-1	-14	-6	+15	3.0
2016	28	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	38	36	10	3	0	0	1	11	1	1	0	278	316	361	677	83	400	29	3	306	92	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2017	29	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	489	432	131	26	3	45	53	128	0	4	0	303	379	690	1.069	387	327	26	11	451	203	+57	+1	-10	-5	+14	5.8
2017	29	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	18	15	1	0	0	1	2	6	0	0	0	67	176	267	443	200		33	11	193	6	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2018	30	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	649	569	188	37	2	43	69	146	4	6	1	330	407	629	1.036	299	375	22	11	443	197	+71	+1	-6	-7	+18	7.8
2019	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	657	575	175	33	2	36	72	138	4	2	0	304	385	557	941	252	342	21	11	408	170	+52	+0	-3	-7	+19	6.2
2020	32	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	237	211	45	16	0	7	22	59	2	1	0	213	294	389	682	175	259	25	9	303	90	-3	+0	-1	-3	+7	0.1
2021	33	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	634	570	163	42	3	28	55	150	3	0	0	286	351	518	869	232	340	24	9	377	147	+33	+0	-1	-7	+18	4.4
2022	34	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	596	533	146	43	1	16	52	145	5	0	0	274	343	448	792	174	345	24	9	349	125	+17	+0	+0	-6	+17	2.8
2023	35	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	479	432	117	27	2	33	34	149	2	1	0	271	326	572	897	301	324	31	7	379	148	+26	+0	+0	-5	+14	3.5
2024	36	MLB	New York Mets	—	495	434	102	24	1	16	49	141	6	0	0	235	318	406	724	171	308	28	10	322	105	+3	+0	+0	-5	+14	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6865	6152	1741	390	24	331	601	1714	40	26	11	283	350	516	866	233	338	25	9	376	146	+354	+1	-45	-81	+195	43.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Nelson Cruzlast yr '23 career totals — 18 seasons, 8,389 PA	18	8,389	464	84	274	343	513	-89	-28	50.7	42.8
	/162	664	37	7	274	343	513	-7.1	-2.2	4.0	pk7: 35
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 18 projected seasons	18	7,677	369	30	280	345	512	-89	-79	46.7	41.8
	/162	664	32	3	280	345	512	-7.7	-6.9	4.0	pk7: 37
#2Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	16	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	41.9	34.3
	/162	664	35	5	260	350	496	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
#3Charlie Blackmonlast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,825 PA	14	6,825	227	148	293	353	479	-34	-80	35.3	32.6
	/162	664	22	14	293	353	479	-3.3	-7.7	3.4	pk7: 30
#4Carlos Gonzálezlast yr '19 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,551 PA	12	5,551	234	122	285	343	500	-50	-23	32.3	30.2
	/162	664	28	15	285	343	500	-6.0	-2.7	3.9	pk7: 28
#5Justin Uptonlast yr '22 AS×4SS×2 career totals — 16 seasons, 7,649 PA	16	7,649	325	151	261	342	469	-82	-91	29.6	27.0
	/162	664	28	13	261	342	469	-7.1	-7.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#6Aubrey Hufflast yr '12 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,786 PA	13	6,786	242	37	278	342	464	-60	-75	25.5	26.9
	/162	664	24	4	278	342	464	-5.8	-7.4	2.5	pk7: 28

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.D. Martinez (OGILVIE)	38	60	55	36	60	262/340/496	234	327	17	3	28%	10%	139	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Olmedo Saenz 2007 · MLB	36	51	60	42→30	49	271/339/496	225	303	28	3	21%	8%	138	+4.4	244/326/428	184	279	22	6	21%	9%	115	+2.7	184/295/333	149	200	18	0	19%	12%	77	+0.0
●Andres Galarraga 2001 · MLB	40	57→59	60	38→40	46	293/359/512	219	342	29	5	23%	7%	150	+5.2	271/341/458	187	331	23	4	24%	7%	129	+3.7	268/339/445	176	330	21	2	24%	7%	118	+1.8
✕John Lindsey 2014 · AAA	37	44→53	63→65	41→30	41	242/315/470	229	300	32	3	31%	6%	122	+3.3	226/305/411	185	289	25	4	30%	7%	102	+1.9	201/292/386	186	250	26	0	30%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Paul Konerko 2013 · MLB	37	56→59	58→65	41→30	58	294/374/497	203	307	27	2	15%	10%	152	+5.3	248/316/384	136	276	17	3	17%	8%	98	+1.6	229/294/336	107	258	13	0	17%	7%	74	-0.0
●Raul Ibanez 2010 · MLB	38	54→61	60	45	54	281/349/505	224	305	27	4	18%	9%	144	+4.8	257/323/445	188	286	21	4	18%	9%	117	+2.9	240/299/446	206	261	27	2	20%	7%	104	+1.7
●Fred McGriff 2002 · MLB	38	56→58	59→60	42→30	60	289/375/497	208	316	28	3	18%	12%	152	+5.3	267/345/473	206	292	27	3	18%	10%	134	+4.1	263/342/474	211	282	28	1	18%	10%	125	+2.7
✕Hideki Matsui 2011 · MLB	37	53→60	56→60	38→40	60	275/360/470	195	292	25	2	16%	12%	139	+4.4	241/313/380	139	270	16	3	17%	9%	96	+1.5	228/298/341	112	257	12	1	16%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Marlon Byrd 2016 · MLB	38	51→61	57→60	44→50	41	263/310/464	201	325	25	4	27%	6%	118	+3.0	255/312/442	187	322	23	6	27%	7%	112	+2.6	262/325/441	179	346	23	0	29%	9%	111	+0.5
✕Eduardo Perez 2006 · MLB	36	49	59→60	40→50	59	261/353/470	209	277	27	6	18%	11%	137	+4.3	253/332/448	195	271	25	6	17%	9%	122	+3.3	249/324/445	196	258	26	0	16%	9%	111	+0.9
✕Mendy López 2012 · AAA	38	51→59	58→65	39→30	47	261/329/457	196	330	27	3	29%	9%	124	+3.4	234/311/421	187	298	27	4	30%	9%	107	+2.2	215/302/393	178	267	27	1	30%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Evan Longoria 2023 · MLB	37	50→58	58→65	42→50	50	261/332/470	209	315	27	3	26%	9%	128	+3.6	242/313/433	191	310	25	5	29%	9%	111	+2.5	215/291/403	188	272	27	0	31%	10%	92	+0.5
✕Luis Alfonso Garcia 2016 · AAA	37	47→57	56→60	44→40	51	250/314/433	183	274	26	3	20%	8%	111	+2.5	246/314/414	168	292	23	5	24%	8%	106	+2.2	250/326/427	177	302	26	1	26%	9%	112	+1.6
●Matt Stairs 2005 · MLB	37	52→55	58→65	46→45	57	269/354/479	210	293	26	3	18%	11%	139	+4.4	267/352/456	189	300	21	3	18%	11%	132	+4.0	268/357/466	198	298	22	1	17%	11%	130	+2.7
●Torii Hunter 2012 · MLB	37	54→64	54→65	40→55	54	275/346/457	183	305	22	9	18%	9%	131	+3.9	297/346/461	164	347	19	6	19%	6%	131	+3.9	305/347/466	161	354	18	5	18%	5%	130	+3.9
✕Ruben Mateo 2015 · AAA	37	53→55	62→70	43→45	44	281/340/504	223	302	31	3	19%	5%	141	+4.6	233/295/391	158	271	21	6	22%	5%	93	+1.3	164/231/289	125	178	20	0	23%	4%	38	-0.9
✕Kendrys Morales 2019 · MLB	36	47→57	58→65	38→40	51	252/322/448	195	277	27	2	21%	9%	118	+3.0	233/322/374	141	261	17	5	17%	11%	99	+1.7	192/313/248	56	216	6	0	13%	13%	63	-0.3
✕Edwin Encarnación 2020 · MLB	37	43→53	65→70	45→50	58	245/343/488	244	256	35	3	22%	12%	137	+4.3	226/313/444	218	257	30	5	25%	10%	114	+2.7	152/246/363	210	153	32	0	30%	9%	66	-0.2
✕Randy Ruiz 2014 · AAA	36	52→56	56→60	43→40	39	269/312/454	185	341	26	5	29%	5%	116	+2.8	242/281/380	138	318	17	7	29%	4%	82	+0.5	225/258/320	95	301	12	4	29%	4%	55	-0.3
★Nelson Cruz 2016 · MLB	36	52→59	67→70	41→55	49	284/349/538	253	317	37	4	23%	8%	153	+5.4	288/364/555	267	321	38	3	23%	10%	163	+6.1	282/366/553	271	307	39	1	22%	10%	157	+6.0
✕Jeromy Burnitz 2006 · MLB	37	49→52	60→65	41→45	52	263/329/478	215	281	28	6	18%	9%	129	+3.7	247/311/435	188	275	25	6	20%	8%	111	+2.5	228/289/418	190	248	28	2	22%	6%	89	+0.6