Matt Olson — OGILVIE

Matt Olson1B Atlanta Braves

Age 32 L/R 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 8.599 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION416 act + 277 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 130135vR 137

AVG/OBP/SLG.255 / .341 / .497

PA277

HR15

K%24

BB%11

BABIP288

ISO242

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 66 / POW 76

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT66

Whiff%

728.7%

xwOBA

880.353

POWER76

Barrel%

8513.5

Avg EV

9092.5

Bat Spd

8174.7

EYE63

Chase%

9023.8%

SPEED35

Sprint

1025.4

DEFENSE62

scouting grade only

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1531 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

448

1083

—

wRC+

128

137

▶R

wOBA

353

364

▶R

ISO

219

217

—

BABIP

332

307

◀L

26.3%

23.8%

▶R

BB%

7.1%

12.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 8.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$9M	+1.8	$14M	+$6M
2027	Ext	$22M	+3.2	$24M	+$4M
2028	Ext	$22M	+2.3	$16M	-$2M
2029	Ext	$22M	+1.3	$8M	-$8M
2030	Ext	$20M	+0.4	$1M	-$12M
Totals		$95M		$63M	-$12M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	197	184	37	11	1	6	9	66	2	0	0	201	246	370	616	168	272	34	5	260	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	197	177	50	16	1	8	16	46	2	0	0	282	349	520	868	237	336	23	8	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Beloit Snappers	—	558	504	75	22	0	15	49	215	2	4	3	149	227	282	509	133	217	39	9	224	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Beloit Snappers	—	558	481	108	32	0	23	72	148	2	4	3	225	328	435	762	210	272	27	13	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	2 teams	—	680	591	115	24	1	29	83	198	6	4	1	195	300	386	686	191	236	29	12	301	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	2 teams	—	680	547	143	32	2	41	127	146	6	4	1	261	406	552	958	291	283	21	19	418	178	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	585	515	93	23	0	16	56	209	6	5	1	181	269	318	587	138	258	36	10	264	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	585	466	116	37	0	17	105	139	6	5	1	249	393	438	831	189	311	24	18	370	142	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	2 teams	—	568	505	100	34	1	18	58	173	0	1	0	198	281	376	657	178	259	30	10	285	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA	2 teams	—	568	485	111	35	1	17	78	136	0	1	0	229	336	410	746	181	281	24	14	332	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	—	559	498	122	14	1	49	52	166	6	3	0	245	324	572	896	327	255	30	9	375	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	—	559	483	129	18	1	47	67	143	6	3	0	267	363	600	964	333	277	26	12	413	174	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	660	580	146	34	0	30	70	163	8	2	1	252	340	466	806	214	298	25	11	350	126	+20	+0	-2	-12	+19	2.5
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	660	580	143	33	0	29	70	163	8	2	1	247	336	453	789	207	292	25	11	350	126	+19	+0	-2	-12	+19	2.4
2019	25	MLB	2 teams	—	571	505	135	27	0	38	52	142	13	0	0	267	351	547	897	279	298	25	9	378	148	+31	+0	+1	-10	+16	3.9
2019	25	MLB	2 teams	—	571	505	133	26	0	37	52	141	13	0	0	263	347	535	882	271	293	25	9	385	152	+34	+0	+1	-10	+16	4.2
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	245	210	42	4	1	15	34	77	1	1	0	200	314	443	757	243	229	31	14	325	107	+2	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.2
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	245	210	41	4	1	14	34	77	1	1	0	195	310	424	734	229	227	31	14	328	109	+2	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.3
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	673	565	157	36	0	41	88	113	9	4	1	278	384	559	943	281	275	17	13	387	154	+41	+0	-7	-12	+19	4.3
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	673	565	153	35	0	39	88	113	9	4	1	271	378	540	917	269	269	17	13	395	160	+46	+0	-7	-12	+19	4.7
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	699	616	148	44	0	34	75	170	4	0	0	240	327	477	804	237	274	24	11	342	120	+16	+0	-5	-12	+20	1.9
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	699	616	148	44	0	34	75	170	4	0	0	240	327	477	804	237	274	24	11	352	127	+22	+0	-5	-12	+20	2.5
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	720	608	172	27	3	54	104	167	4	1	0	283	391	604	995	321	302	23	14	414	175	+61	+0	-10	-13	+20	6.0
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	720	608	172	27	3	54	104	167	4	1	0	283	391	604	995	321	302	23	14	426	184	+69	+0	-10	-13	+20	6.8
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	685	600	148	37	1	29	71	170	9	0	0	247	335	457	792	210	293	25	10	340	118	+14	+0	-4	-12	+19	1.8
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	685	600	148	37	1	29	71	170	9	0	0	247	335	457	792	210	293	25	10	349	125	+19	+0	-4	-12	+19	2.3
2025	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	724	624	170	41	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	272	369	484	853	212	333	24	13	369	140	+33	+0	+0	-13	+21	4.2
2025	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	724	624	170	41	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	272	369	484	853	212	333	24	13	375	145	+37	+0	+0	-13	+21	4.6
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	32	MLB	ATL	—	416	371	99	24	0	25	40	99	2	2	0	267	341	534	875	267	296	24	10	369	141	+19	+0	+1	-7	+12	2.5
YTD	32	MLB	ATL	—	416	371	99	24	0	25	40	99	2	2	0	267	341	534	875	267	296	24	10	379	148	+22	+0	+1	-7	+12	2.9
ROS	32	MLB	ATL	100%	277	243	62	14	0	15	30	66	2	1	0	255	341	497	839	242	290	24	11	370	142	+13	+0	+3	-5	+8	2.0
ROS	32	MLB	ATL	100%	277	243	62	14	0	15	30	66	2	1	0	255	342	498	840	243	290	24	11	366	138	+12	+0	+3	-5	+8	1.9
FULL	32	MLB	ATL	—	693	614	161	38	0	40	70	165	4	3	0	262	342	520	861	257	293	24	10	368	140	+31	+1	+4	-12	+20	4.4
TOT	32	MLB	ATL	—	693	614	161	38	0	40	70	165	4	3	0	262	341	519	861	257	293	24	10	370	141	+32	+1	+4	-12	+20	4.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	33	MLB	ATL	100%	615	541	135	29	1	33	66	150	3	2	0	250	334	490	824	240	282	24	11	360	134	+24	+0	+3	-11	+17	3.4
2028	34	MLB	ATL	100%	565	497	119	25	0	30	60	142	3	1	0	239	325	471	796	231	272	25	11	349	125	+16	+0	+2	-10	+16	2.4
2029	35	MLB	ATL	100%	508	446	103	21	0	26	54	131	3	1	0	231	318	453	771	222	261	26	11	335	115	+8	+0	+0	-9	+14	1.4
2030	36	MLB	ATL	100%	446	395	86	17	0	21	46	119	2	0	0	218	302	420	723	203	250	27	10	321	104	+2	+0	-1	-8	+13	0.6
2031	37	MLB	ATL	100%	379	335	69	13	0	17	39	104	2	0	0	206	293	397	690	191	239	27	10	306	92	-3	+0	-3	-7	+11	-0.2
2027	33	MLB	ATL	100%	615	541	135	29	1	33	66	150	3	2	0	250	334	490	824	240	282	24	11	356	131	+21	+0	+3	-11	+17	3.2
2028	34	MLB	ATL	100%	565	497	119	25	0	30	60	142	3	1	0	239	325	471	796	231	272	25	11	345	122	+14	+0	+2	-10	+16	2.2
2029	35	MLB	ATL	100%	508	446	103	21	0	26	54	131	3	1	0	231	318	453	771	222	261	26	11	331	112	+7	+0	+0	-9	+14	1.3
2030	36	MLB	ATL	100%	446	395	86	17	0	21	46	119	2	0	0	218	302	420	723	203	250	27	10	317	101	+1	+0	-1	-8	+13	0.4
2031	37	MLB	ATL	100%	379	335	69	13	0	17	39	104	2	0	0	206	293	397	690	191	239	27	10	303	90	-4	+0	-3	-7	+11	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7987	6953	1729	369	8	430	908	1950	71	14	2	249	341	490	831	241	281	24	11	362	135	+318	+2	-23	-155	+226	37.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	141	30	1	35	74	159	6	1	0	249	343	491	834	242	282	24	11	362	135	+26	+0	-2	-13	+18	3.1
Career	—			—	10914	9562	2234	497	12	545	1187	2917	89	31	7	234	324	459	783	225	274	27	11	337	116	+202	+3	-23	-191	+309	30.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	569	133	30	1	32	71	174	5	2	0	234	324	459	783	225	275	27	11	337	116	+12	+0	-1	-11	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	197	177	50	16	1	8	16	46	2	0	0	282	349	520	868	237	336	23	8	376	146	+10	+0	—	—	+6	1.6
2013	19	A	Beloit Snappers	—	558	481	108	32	0	23	72	148	2	4	3	225	328	435	762	210	272	27	13	338	117	+11	-0	—	—	+16	2.7
2014	20	A+	Stockton Ports	—	634	512	134	31	1	37	117	137	5	2	0	262	404	543	947	281	287	22	18	414	175	+54	+0	—	—	+18	7.4
2014	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	46	35	9	1	1	4	10	9	1	2	1	257	435	686	1.120	429	227	20	22	471	218	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.8
2015	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	585	466	116	37	0	17	105	139	6	5	1	249	393	438	831	189	311	24	18	370	142	+27	+1	—	—	+17	4.6
2016	22	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	28	21	2	1	0	0	7	4	0	0	0	95	321	143	464	48	118	14	25	253	52	-2	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.7
2016	22	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	540	464	109	34	1	17	71	132	0	1	0	235	336	422	759	188	289	24	13	337	116	+10	+0	—	—	+15	2.6
2017	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	216	189	49	2	0	24	22	60	5	0	0	259	352	651	1.003	392	238	28	10	428	185	+21	+0	+1	-10	+6	1.8
2017	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	343	294	80	16	1	23	45	83	1	3	0	272	371	568	939	296	298	24	13	403	167	+26	+1	—	—	+10	3.7
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	660	580	143	33	0	29	70	163	8	2	1	247	336	453	789	207	292	25	11	350	126	+19	+0	-2	-12	+19	2.4
2019	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	547	483	129	26	0	36	51	138	12	0	0	267	352	545	896	277	300	25	9	390	157	+35	+0	+1	-10	+15	4.2
2019	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	24	22	4	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	182	250	318	568	136	167	12	4	260	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	245	210	41	4	1	14	34	77	1	1	0	195	310	424	734	229	227	31	14	328	109	+2	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.3
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	673	565	153	35	0	39	88	113	9	4	1	271	378	540	917	269	269	17	13	395	160	+46	+0	-7	-12	+19	4.7
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	699	616	148	44	0	34	75	170	4	0	0	240	327	477	804	237	274	24	11	352	127	+22	+0	-5	-12	+20	2.5
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	720	608	172	27	3	54	104	167	4	1	0	283	391	604	995	321	302	23	14	426	184	+69	+0	-10	-13	+20	6.8
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	685	600	148	37	1	29	71	170	9	0	0	247	335	457	792	210	293	25	10	349	125	+19	+0	-4	-12	+19	2.3
2025	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	724	624	170	41	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	272	369	484	853	212	333	24	13	375	145	+37	+0	+0	-13	+21	4.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5197	4496	1155	250	7	288	613	1238	56	9	2	257	353	508	861	251	289	24	12	376	146	+268	+1	-28	-105	+147	28.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mark Teixeiralast yr '16 AS×3GG×5SS×3 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,029 PA	14	8,029	409	26	268	360	509	-143	-74	42.0	38.0
	/162	664	34	2	268	360	509	-11.9	-6.1	3.5	pk7: 34
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	8,786	475	18	251	339	496	-163	-88	41.8	35.3
	/162	664	36	1	251	339	496	-12.3	-6.6	3.2	pk7: 29
#2Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	16	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	41.9	34.3
	/162	664	35	5	260	350	496	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
#3Paul Konerkolast yr '14 career totals — 15 seasons, 8,694 PA	15	8,694	408	8	280	356	490	-133	-125	36.7	32.4
	/162	664	31	1	280	356	490	-10.2	-9.5	2.8	pk7: 28
#4Adrián Gonzálezlast yr '18 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,002 PA	14	8,002	316	6	287	358	486	-143	-102	32.1	29.7
	/162	664	26	0	287	358	486	-11.9	-8.4	2.7	pk7: 27
#5Anthony Rizzolast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,336 PA	14	7,336	303	72	261	361	467	-131	-79	28.6	27.3
	/162	664	27	7	261	361	467	-11.9	-7.1	2.6	pk7: 26
#6Richie Sexsonlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,885 PA	9	4,885	264	10	260	348	503	-64	-76	21.4	23.0
	/162	664	36	1	260	348	503	-8.8	-10.3	2.9	pk7: 25

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Olson (OGILVIE)	32	66	72→76	35	63	262/341/519	257	293	40	3	24%	10%	141	+4.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Lucas Duda 2017 · MLB	31	46→54	60→65	39→30	54	246/339/465	219	281	28	3	23%	11%	130	+3.8	228/313/450	222	274	29	2	28%	10%	116	+2.8	214/300/431	218	258	29	1	29%	9%	100	+1.1
●Justin Smoak 2019 · MLB	32	47→53	61→65	39→30	57	250/346/475	224	291	28	2	25%	12%	134	+4.1	226/332/428	202	264	25	3	24%	13%	118	+3.0	201/324/399	198	223	26	0	23%	14%	103	+1.0
●Luke Scott 2010 · MLB	32	49→55	60→65	44→45	55	258/338/481	223	285	27	3	20%	11%	133	+4.0	251/329/463	212	282	26	4	21%	10%	125	+3.5	242/321/454	212	271	26	4	21%	9%	114	+1.7
●Joc Pederson 2023 · MLB	31	49→53	61→70	43→55	50	260/337/483	223	300	29	5	24%	9%	134	+4.1	250/351/454	204	290	25	5	22%	12%	132	+4.0	233/347/424	192	268	24	5	22%	12%	118	+1.9
★Paul Konerko 2008 · MLB	32	52→59	62→65	41→30	59	278/362/510	232	288	31	2	16%	11%	150	+5.2	270/357/487	217	283	28	2	16%	11%	143	+4.7	297/382/513	216	312	30	0	15%	11%	149	+5.3
✕Yoenis Cespedes 2018 · MLB	32	53→58	64→65	43→50	50	284/344/527	243	309	32	4	20%	8%	148	+5.1	263/329/482	219	323	29	8	27%	8%	130	+3.8	259/325/491	232	334	35	11	32%	8%	123	+0.9
★Jeromy Burnitz 2002 · MLB	33	45→52	62→65	38→45	60	245/349/480	235	266	29	3	21%	13%	137	+4.3	243/326/462	219	272	29	7	22%	10%	124	+3.4	259/327/489	229	278	31	5	19%	8%	124	+3.3
✕Richie Sexson 2007 · MLB	32	49→54	65	41→30	55	263/348/515	252	299	32	2	24%	11%	146	+4.9	232/320/429	197	267	26	3	23%	11%	112	+2.6	210/306/390	179	236	24	1	23%	11%	94	+0.9
✕Jay Bruce 2019 · MLB	32	46→54	58→65	41→50	52	244/316/454	210	273	26	4	22%	10%	118	+3.0	224/286/456	232	245	31	4	24%	8%	106	+2.2	206/255/492	287	195	43	1	24%	6%	101	+0.7
●Adam Dunn 2011 · MLB	31	49→51	66→70	39→50	60	259/372/525	265	316	34	2	28%	14%	157	+5.7	211/326/422	211	279	28	2	33%	14%	114	+2.7	211/329/436	225	265	32	1	32%	14%	112	+2.5
●Ryan Ludwick 2010 · MLB	32	52→56	60→65	42→45	50	274/342/494	220	308	28	5	21%	8%	139	+4.4	256/328/436	180	300	22	3	22%	9%	117	+2.9	252/327/430	178	294	21	0	22%	9%	111	+2.2
✕Chris Davis 2017 · MLB	31	40→50	64→70	41→40	53	225/329/459	234	281	33	3	32%	12%	124	+3.4	198/290/373	175	277	25	3	36%	11%	86	+0.8	180/270/330	150	259	22	1	38%	10%	63	-0.7
●Matt Carpenter 2019 · MLB	33	48→58	61→60	43→45	65	254/374/493	239	288	27	4	22%	15%	150	+5.2	223/339/398	175	283	19	6	26%	13%	113	+2.6	223/337/447	224	275	27	2	28%	13%	121	+1.2
●Adam LaRoche 2013 · MLB	33	48→55	58→65	43→40	53	255/330/462	207	292	26	3	23%	10%	124	+3.4	244/335/424	180	284	23	4	22%	12%	118	+3.0	233/331/397	164	274	21	3	22%	12%	101	+1.6
●Giancarlo Stanton 2022 · MLB	32	50→59	62→80	43→45	53	265/350/487	222	322	31	3	27%	11%	140	+4.5	223/303/446	223	265	33	2	29%	10%	111	+2.5	220/296/459	239	262	36	0	31%	9%	106	+1.4
●Carlos Pena 2010 · MLB	32	43→49	69→70	41→45	62	244/370/528	284	279	37	3	27%	15%	157	+5.7	215/341/441	226	258	29	4	28%	15%	124	+3.4	203/336/407	204	247	26	3	28%	15%	109	+2.3
★Geoff Jenkins 2004 · MLB	30	53→58	60→65	42→45	52	277/353/499	223	321	27	3	23%	10%	144	+4.8	275/349/482	207	327	24	3	22%	9%	138	+4.4	273/351/470	198	328	22	2	23%	9%	126	+3.7
●Dan Uggla 2012 · MLB	32	47→57	61→65	40→45	54	257/340/478	221	287	30	3	23%	11%	133	+4.0	215/324/393	178	269	22	4	27%	13%	105	+2.1	194/319/353	159	251	20	3	29%	14%	89	+0.7
●Jesús Aguilar 2021 · MLB	31	50	57→65	40	55	260/342/458	198	296	26	2	22%	11%	129	+3.7	248/313/415	167	286	22	2	21%	8%	105	+2.1	241/303/395	154	281	21	0	22%	8%	93	+0.9
●Brandon Moss 2016 · MLB	32	45→50	58→65	43→45	51	239/323/444	205	292	26	2	27%	10%	118	+3.0	229/303/456	227	282	31	4	30%	9%	113	+2.6	219/294/466	247	259	36	2	31%	9%	108	+1.7