Matt Olson

1B Atlanta Braves

Age 33 L/R 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB Svc 9.599 · Ctrl thru 2030

Overview

MLB40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	30	MLBATL	685	.247/.335/.457	29	0	119	1.4
2025	31	MLBATL	724	.272/.369/.484	29	1	138	3.7
2026	32	MLBATL	698	.251/.324/.502	41	4	125	2.6
2027PROJ	33	MLBATL	576	.246/.326/.482	30	3	125	2.7
2028PROJ	34	MLBATL	511	.234/.314/.457	25	2	114	1.2
2029PROJ	35	MLBATL	443	.221/.300/.428	21	1	103	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 7.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service9.599First FA2028

2027Ext$22M2028Ext$22M2029Ext$22M2030Ext$20M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

xwOBA87

Barrel%86

Bat Spd81

Speed10

Form.246/.307/.443 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .246/.324/.482

CompsJeromy Burnitz (age 33) · Jay Bruce (age 32) · Matt Carpenter (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 108125vR 131

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .326 / .482

PA576

HR30

K%24

BB%10

BABIP277

ISO237

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

440.246

POWER

Barrel%

8613.6

Avg EV

9092.4

Bat Spd

8174.7

SPEED

Sprint

1025.3

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%22%▲▲21% over 111 PA (60d) · proj 24%

BB%8%▼▼5% over 111 PA (60d) · proj 10%

ISO.198▼▼.137 over 102 AB (60d) · proj .236

HR/BB6.7%▼4.9% over 82 BBE (60d) · proj 8.0%

BABIP.273▼.231 over 78 BIP (60d) · proj .277

SLASH.246/.307/.443▼▼proj .246/.324/.482

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1531 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

448

1083

—

wRC+

125

133

▶R

wOBA

353

364

▶R

ISO

219

217

—

BABIP

332

307

◀L

26.3%

23.8%

▶R

BB%

7.1%

12.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 9.599 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$22M	+2.7	$23M	+$0.7M
2028	Ext	$22M	+1.2	$9M	-$11M
2029	Ext	$22M	+0.3	$1M	-$17M
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$66M		$33M	-$27M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2012	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	—	197	177	50	16	1	8	16	46	2	0	0	282	349	520	868	237	336	23	8	376	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A	Beloit Snappers	—	558	481	108	32	0	23	72	148	2	4	3	225	328	435	762	210	272	27	13	338	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+	Stockton Ports	—	634	512	134	31	1	37	117	137	5	2	0	262	404	543	947	281	287	22	18	414	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	46	35	9	1	1	4	10	9	1	2	1	257	435	686	1.120	429	227	20	22	471	205	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	585	466	116	37	0	17	105	139	6	5	1	249	393	438	831	189	311	24	18	370	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	28	21	2	1	0	0	7	4	0	0	0	95	321	143	464	48	118	14	25	253	56	-1	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.7
2016	22	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	540	464	109	34	1	17	71	132	0	1	0	235	336	422	759	188	289	24	13	337	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	216	189	49	2	0	24	22	60	5	0	0	259	352	651	1.003	392	238	28	10	428	189	+23	+0	+1	-10	+5	1.9
2017	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	343	294	80	16	1	23	45	83	1	3	0	272	371	568	939	296	298	24	13	403	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	660	580	143	33	0	29	70	163	8	2	1	247	336	453	789	207	292	25	11	350	126	+20	+0	-2	-12	+14	2.1
2019	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	547	483	129	26	0	36	51	138	12	0	0	267	352	545	896	277	300	25	9	390	152	+34	+0	+1	-10	+12	3.8
2019	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	24	22	4	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	182	250	318	568	136	167	12	4	260	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	245	210	41	4	1	14	34	77	1	1	0	195	310	424	734	229	227	31	14	328	112	+3	+0	-2	-4	+5	0.2
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	673	565	153	35	0	39	88	113	9	4	1	271	378	540	917	269	269	17	13	395	152	+41	+0	-7	-12	+15	3.8
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	699	616	148	44	0	34	75	170	4	0	0	240	327	477	804	237	274	24	11	352	120	+17	+0	-5	-12	+15	1.5
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	720	608	172	27	3	54	104	167	4	1	0	283	391	604	995	321	302	23	14	426	169	+60	+0	-10	-13	+16	5.4
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	685	600	148	37	1	29	71	170	9	0	0	247	335	457	792	210	293	25	10	349	119	+15	+0	-4	-12	+15	1.4
2025	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	724	624	170	41	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	272	369	484	853	212	333	24	13	375	138	+33	+0	+0	-13	+16	3.7
2026	32	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	698	625	157	34	0	41	64	171	3	4	0	251	324	502	826	251	277	24	9	358	125	+21	+1	+1	-12	+15	2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5895	5121	1312	284	7	329	677	1409	59	13	2	256	350	507	857	251	287	24	11	374	139	+274	+2	-27	-117	+128	26.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	197	184	38	11	1	6	9	66	2	0	0	207	251	375	626	168	271	34	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	558	502	82	24	0	16	51	208	2	4	3	163	243	307	550	143	231	37	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	634	547	114	24	1	31	82	184	5	2	0	208	317	426	743	218	249	29	13	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	585	505	101	28	0	15	66	183	6	5	1	200	300	345	644	145	266	31	11	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	28	21	2	1	0	0	7	4	0	0	0	95	321	143	464	48	118	14	25	251	56	-1	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.7
2016	22	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	540	483	96	30	1	16	52	170	0	1	0	199	277	364	641	166	263	31	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	216	190	51	2	0	26	21	60	5	0	0	268	356	689	1.046	421	238	28	10	447	189	+23	+0	+1	-10	+5	1.9
2017	23	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	343	306	69	12	1	21	33	107	1	3	0	225	303	477	780	252	262	31	10	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	660	583	145	32	0	32	67	163	8	2	1	249	334	468	803	220	292	25	10	354	126	+20	+0	-2	-12	+14	2.1
2019	25	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	547	490	132	25	0	40	44	138	12	0	0	269	344	565	910	296	300	25	8	393	152	+34	+0	+1	-10	+12	3.8
2019	25	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	24	22	4	0	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	182	250	318	568	136	150	17	4	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	245	212	42	4	1	15	32	77	1	1	0	198	306	439	745	241	227	31	13	333	112	+3	+0	-2	-4	+5	0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	673	577	156	34	0	43	76	113	9	4	1	270	364	553	917	282	269	17	11	393	152	+41	+0	-7	-12	+15	3.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	699	622	148	44	0	34	69	170	4	0	0	238	318	473	791	235	274	24	10	346	120	+17	+0	-5	-12	+15	1.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	720	616	172	27	3	54	96	167	4	1	0	279	380	596	976	317	302	23	13	419	169	+60	+0	-10	-13	+16	5.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	685	605	148	37	1	29	66	170	9	0	0	245	328	453	781	208	293	25	10	344	119	+15	+0	-4	-12	+15	1.4
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	724	626	170	41	2	29	89	176	4	1	0	272	366	482	848	211	333	24	12	373	138	+33	+0	+0	-13	+16	3.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	698	630	157	34	0	41	59	171	3	4	0	249	316	498	815	249	277	24	8	353	125	+21	+1	+1	-12	+15	2.6
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	197	184	38	11	1	6	9	66	2	0	0	207	251	375	626	168	281	34	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	18	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics	—	197	177	50	16	1	8	16	46	2	0	0	282	349	520	868	237	336	23	8	376	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	558	502	82	24	0	16	51	208	2	4	3	163	243	307	550	143	235	37	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A RAW	Beloit Snappers	—	558	481	108	32	0	23	72	148	2	4	3	225	328	435	762	210	272	27	13	338	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	680	586	123	26	1	33	88	197	6	4	1	210	319	427	746	217	253	29	13	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	680	547	143	32	2	41	127	146	6	4	1	261	406	552	958	291	283	21	19	418	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	585	505	101	28	0	15	66	183	6	5	1	200	300	345	644	145	273	31	11	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	—	585	466	116	37	0	17	105	139	6	5	1	249	393	438	831	189	311	24	18	370	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	568	504	98	31	1	16	59	174	0	1	0	194	279	355	634	161	259	31	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	568	485	111	35	1	17	78	136	0	1	0	229	336	410	746	181	281	24	14	332	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	559	496	120	14	1	47	54	167	6	3	0	242	324	558	882	317	256	30	10	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	559	483	129	18	1	47	67	143	6	3	0	267	363	600	964	333	277	26	12	413	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	660	583	145	32	0	32	67	163	8	2	1	249	334	468	803	220	290	25	10	354	126	+20	+0	-2	-12	+14	2.1
2018	24	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	660	580	143	33	0	29	70	163	8	2	1	247	336	453	789	207	292	25	11	350	126	+20	+0	-2	-12	+14	2.1
2019	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	571	512	135	25	0	40	45	142	13	0	0	264	339	547	885	283	287	25	8	385	147	+32	+0	+1	-10	+12	3.6
2019	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	571	505	133	26	0	37	52	141	13	0	0	263	347	535	882	271	293	25	9	385	147	+32	+0	+1	-10	+12	3.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	245	212	42	4	1	15	32	77	1	1	0	198	306	439	745	241	225	31	13	333	112	+3	+0	-2	-4	+5	0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	245	210	41	4	1	14	34	77	1	1	0	195	310	424	734	229	227	31	14	328	112	+3	+0	-2	-4	+5	0.2
2021	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	673	577	156	34	0	43	76	113	9	4	1	270	364	553	917	282	262	17	11	393	152	+41	+0	-7	-12	+15	3.8
2021	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	673	565	153	35	0	39	88	113	9	4	1	271	378	540	917	269	269	17	13	395	152	+41	+0	-7	-12	+15	3.8
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	699	622	148	44	0	34	69	170	4	0	0	238	318	473	791	235	270	24	10	346	120	+17	+0	-5	-12	+15	1.5
2022	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	699	616	148	44	0	34	75	170	4	0	0	240	327	477	804	237	274	24	11	352	120	+17	+0	-5	-12	+15	1.5
2023	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	720	616	172	27	3	54	96	167	4	1	0	279	380	596	976	317	296	23	13	419	169	+60	+0	-10	-13	+16	5.4
2023	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	720	608	172	27	3	54	104	167	4	1	0	283	391	604	995	321	302	23	14	426	169	+60	+0	-10	-13	+16	5.4
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	685	605	148	37	1	29	66	170	9	0	0	245	328	453	781	208	290	25	10	344	119	+15	+0	-4	-12	+15	1.4
2024	30	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	685	600	148	37	1	29	71	170	9	0	0	247	335	457	792	210	293	25	10	349	119	+15	+0	-4	-12	+15	1.4
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	724	626	170	41	2	29	89	176	4	1	0	272	366	482	848	211	331	24	12	373	138	+33	+0	+0	-13	+16	3.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	724	624	170	41	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	272	369	484	853	212	333	24	13	375	138	+33	+0	+0	-13	+16	3.7
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	698	630	157	34	0	41	59	171	3	4	0	249	316	498	815	249	274	24	8	353	125	+21	+1	+1	-12	+15	2.6
2026	32	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	698	625	157	34	0	41	64	171	3	4	0	251	324	502	826	251	277	24	9	358	125	+21	+1	+1	-12	+15	2.6
2012	18	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics	—	197	184	38	11	1	6	9	66	2	0	0	207	251	375	626	168	271	34	5	265	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	19	A MLE	Beloit Snappers	—	558	500	82	24	0	16	51	208	2	4	3	164	243	308	551	144	231	37	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	680	581	123	26	1	33	88	197	6	4	1	212	319	430	749	219	249	29	13	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	21	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	585	508	101	28	0	15	66	183	6	5	1	199	300	343	642	144	266	31	11	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	568	504	98	31	1	16	59	174	0	1	0	194	279	355	634	161	256	31	10	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	559	494	120	14	1	47	54	167	6	3	0	243	324	561	884	318	253	30	10	376	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	660	580	145	32	0	32	67	163	8	2	1	250	334	471	805	221	292	25	10	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	571	508	135	25	0	40	45	142	13	0	0	266	339	551	890	285	294	25	8	385	147	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	26	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	245	210	42	4	1	15	32	77	1	1	0	200	306	443	749	243	227	31	13	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	673	583	156	34	0	43	76	113	9	4	1	268	364	547	911	280	269	17	11	393	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	699	621	148	44	0	34	69	170	4	0	0	238	318	473	791	235	274	24	10	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	720	614	172	27	3	54	96	167	4	1	0	280	380	598	978	318	302	23	13	419	169	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	685	605	148	37	1	29	66	170	9	0	0	245	328	453	781	208	293	25	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	724	625	170	41	2	29	89	176	4	1	0	272	366	483	849	211	333	24	12	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	698	631	157	34	0	41	59	171	3	4	0	249	316	498	814	249	277	24	8	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	685	605	148	37	1	29	66	170	9	0	0	245	328	453	781	208	293	25	10	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	724	625	170	41	2	29	89	176	4	1	0	272	366	483	849	211	333	24	12	373	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	32	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	698	631	157	34	0	41	59	171	3	4	0	249	316	498	814	249	277	24	8	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	33	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	626	555	137	32	1	32	62	152	4	3	1	246	326	482	808	236	277	24	10	352	125	+18	+0	+8	-11	+14	2.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	33	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	576	510	126	29	1	30	57	140	4	3	1	246	326	482	808	236	277	24	10	352	125	+17	+0	+7	-10	+12	2.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	511	453	107	24	1	25	50	128	3	2	1	234	314	457	770	222	266	25	10	337	114	+9	+0	+1	-9	+11	1.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	ATL	100%	443	396	88	19	0	21	42	114	2	1	1	221	300	428	728	207	253	26	9	320	103	+1	-0	-0	-8	+10	0.3
2028	34	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	511	453	107	24	1	25	50	128	3	2	1	234	314	457	770	222	266	25	10	337	114	+9	+0	+1	-9	+11	1.2
2029	35	MLB CTX	ATL	100%	443	396	88	19	0	21	42	114	2	1	1	221	300	428	728	207	253	26	9	320	103	+1	-0	-0	-8	+10	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6849	5970	1507	327	8	375	769	1651	64	16	4	252	344	498	842	246	284	24	11	367	119	+284	+2	-26	-134	+148	27.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	144	31	1	36	73	157	6	2	0	254	345	503	848	249	286	24	11	367	119	+27	+0	-2	-13	+14	2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	10352	9119	2156	484	13	526	1075	2726	86	36	10	236	323	465	788	229	275	26	10	344	119	+301	+2	-19	-145	+161	30.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	135	30	1	33	67	171	5	2	1	236	320	464	785	229	273	26	10	344	119	+26	+0	-2	-13	+14	2.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 24 PAwOBA .252 → .207 (−46)K% 12.5% → 16.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.50%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	16.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.17%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×1.033	3.10%
HBP% /PA	4.17%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	4.22%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷1.018	×0.900	—	×1.033	14.42%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.951	×0.810	—	×1.033	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.102	×0.810	—	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×1.033	3.79%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .252 → .207; ISO .136 → .095; BABIP .167 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 343 PAwOBA .396 → .331 (−64)K% 24.2% → 31.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.20%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	31.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.12%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×1.050	9.50%
HBP% /PA	0.29%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.30%
Singles /BIP	18.96%	÷0.984	×0.900	×0.956	×1.050	17.41%
Doubles /BIP	7.58%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.956	×1.050	6.04%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.956	×1.050	0.43%
Home runs /BIP	10.90%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×1.050	10.29%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .396 → .331; ISO .296 → .260; BABIP .298 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 540 PAwOBA .328 → .280 (−49)K% 24.4% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.44%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	31.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.78%	÷0.979	×0.710	—	×1.050	9.73%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.17%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.986	×1.050	15.46%
Doubles /BIP	10.24%	÷0.898	×0.810	×0.986	×1.050	9.56%
Triples /BIP	0.30%	÷1.015	×0.810	×0.986	×1.050	0.25%
Home runs /BIP	5.12%	÷0.856	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.90%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .328 → .280; ISO .188 → .170; BABIP .289 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAMidland RockHounds · 585 PAwOBA .363 → .289 (−74)K% 23.8% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.76%	÷0.928	×1.220	—	—	31.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.92%	÷1.106	×0.700	—	×1.050	11.25%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	0.94%
Singles /BIP	18.96%	÷0.990	×0.920	×0.951	×1.050	17.59%
Doubles /BIP	11.31%	÷1.125	×0.840	×0.951	×1.050	8.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.940	×0.951	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.20%	÷0.982	×0.800	—	×1.050	4.45%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 98, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 86, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .363 → .289; ISO .189 → .155; BABIP .311 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 A+Stockton Ports · 634 PAwOBA .402 → .323 (−78)K% 21.6% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.61%	÷0.997	×1.340	—	—	29.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.82%	÷1.020	×0.710	—	×1.042	12.92%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	0.65%
Singles /BIP	17.33%	÷0.992	×0.910	×0.969	×1.042	16.05%
Doubles /BIP	8.27%	÷1.044	×0.820	×0.969	×1.042	6.55%
Triples /BIP	0.27%	÷1.011	×0.760	×0.969	×1.042	0.20%
Home runs /BIP	9.87%	÷1.112	×0.920	—	×1.042	8.51%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 109, 3B 102, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .402 → .323; ISO .281 → .231; BABIP .287 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 ABeloit Snappers · 558 PAwOBA .330 → .245 (−86)K% 26.5% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.52%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	37.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.72%	÷1.001	×0.690	—	×1.045	9.16%
HBP% /PA	0.36%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.29%
Singles /BIP	15.92%	÷1.056	×0.920	×0.977	×1.045	14.16%
Doubles /BIP	9.61%	÷1.027	×0.830	×0.977	×1.045	7.93%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.087	×0.910	×0.977	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.91%	÷1.052	×0.800	—	×1.045	5.49%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 111, 2B 105, 3B 117, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .330 → .245; ISO .210 → .151; BABIP .272 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 ROKAZL Athletics · 197 PAwOBA .368 → .265 (−103)K% 23.4% → 33.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.35%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.61%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.83%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.75%
Singles /BIP	19.08%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.025	×1.022	16.40%
Doubles /BIP	12.21%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.025	×1.022	9.21%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.025	×1.022	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	6.11%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	4.87%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .368 → .265; ISO .237 → .169; BABIP .336 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mark Teixeiralast yr '16 AS×3GG×5SS×3 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,029 PA	12.1	8,029	409	26	268	360	509	-143	-74	42.1	38.1
/162	664	34	2	-11.9	-6.1	3.5	pk7: 34
#2Edwin Encarnaciónlast yr '20 career totals — 16 seasons, 8,126 PA	12.2	8,126	424	61	260	350	496	-77	-92	42.0	34.4
/162	664	35	5	-6.3	-7.5	3.4	pk7: 27
#3Mo Vaughn'91-'03 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,410 PA	9.7	6,410	328	30	280*	367*	513*	-120	-46	34.7	33.2
/162	664	34	3	-12.4	-4.8	3.6	pk7: 32
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 13 projected seasons	11.1	7,397	405	19	254	340	501	-132	-71	36.8	32.6
/162	664	36	2	-11.9	-6.4	3.3	pk7: 28
#4Greg Luzinski'70-'84 * career totals — 14 seasons, 7,514 PA	11.3	7,514	307	37	271*	360*	514*	-113	-63	33.3	29.5
/162	664	27	3	-10.0	-5.6	2.9	pk7: 26
#5Anthony Rizzolast yr '24 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,336 PA	11.0	7,336	303	72	261	361	467	-131	-79	28.7	27.3
/162	664	27	7	-11.9	-7.1	2.6	pk7: 26
#6Danny Tartabull'84-'97 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,842 PA	8.8	5,842	262	37	267*	362*	510*	-82	-62	30.1	27.2
/162	664	30	4	-9.4	-7.0	3.4	pk7: 24

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Olson (OGILVIE)	33	—	—	—	—	244/324/478	234	277	30	3	24%	10%	125	+3.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jeromy Burnitz 2002 · MLB	33	44→51	61→65	38→45	57	241/336/472	231	260	29	3	21%	12%	127	+3.3	240/313/455	215	267	29	7	22%	9%	115	+2.4	256/317/483	227	273	31	5	19%	7%	124	+3.0
✕Jay Bruce 2019 · MLB	32	46→56	58→65	41→50	51	246/313/456	210	275	26	4	22%	9%	115	+2.4	224/283/453	229	247	31	4	24%	8%	103	+1.6	205/253/486	280	198	41	1	24%	6%	102	+0.5
●Matt Carpenter 2019 · MLB	33	47→57	62→65	43→45	62	250/359/492	242	278	29	4	22%	14%	139	+4.2	221/332/400	179	276	20	6	26%	13%	109	+2.0	220/332/438	218	271	26	2	28%	13%	118	+1.0
✕Justin Smoak 2019 · MLB	32	47→54	60→65	39→30	57	250/343/474	224	291	28	2	24%	12%	129	+3.4	225/329/426	201	262	25	3	24%	13%	114	+2.3	199/319/395	196	220	26	0	23%	14%	105	+0.9
✕Matt Joyce 2018 · MLB	33	45→52	59→60	43→50	60	240/342/458	218	267	27	5	22%	13%	126	+3.2	249/348/420	171	296	20	4	21%	13%	119	+2.7	250/355/382	132	307	15	1	22%	14%	114	+0.9
●Lucas Duda 2017 · MLB	31	46→56	60→65	39→30	52	248/333/467	219	283	27	3	23%	10%	124	+3.1	225/304/443	218	269	29	2	28%	9%	109	+2.0	210/290/421	211	252	29	1	29%	9%	100	+0.8
●Adam LaRoche 2013 · MLB	33	47→53	58→65	43→40	51	252/321/457	205	287	26	3	23%	9%	118	+2.6	241/323/419	178	279	23	4	22%	11%	110	+2.1	230/320/393	163	270	21	3	22%	11%	103	+1.4
✕Luke Scott 2011 · MLB	33	50→54	60→65	46→45	54	263/338/485	222	287	28	3	20%	10%	130	+3.5	240/311/437	197	276	24	5	22%	9%	109	+2.0	223/294/407	184	261	22	5	23%	8%	98	+0.6
✕Kole Calhoun 2021 · MLB	33	40→50	62→60	45→50	53	228/315/457	229	250	31	5	24%	10%	116	+2.5	222/293/393	171	270	22	5	26%	8%	93	+0.8	211/274/353	142	263	16	2	26%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Luis Valbuena 2018 · MLB	32	41→51	59→60	38→50	54	226/313/435	209	256	28	3	24%	11%	110	+2.1	220/284/386	166	289	21	7	30%	8%	88	+0.4	196/244/328	132	273	18	6	35%	6%	60	-0.8
●Jorge Soler 2024 · MLB	32	43→52	64→70	41→45	53	243/328/484	240	274	33	2	25%	10%	127	+3.3	234/321/435	201	289	25	2	27%	10%	113	+2.3	221/313/403	182	282	21	0	28%	10%	103	+1.1
★Marcell Ozuna 2024 · MLB	33	46→56	64→65	44→45	49	254/318/490	236	278	33	2	23%	8%	124	+3.1	262/347/472	210	313	29	2	25%	11%	130	+3.5	255/350/448	193	310	26	0	25%	12%	127	+2.9
●Joc Pederson 2024 · MLB	32	47→54	58→65	44→55	53	251/337/458	207	286	26	3	22%	10%	124	+3.1	239/339/445	206	272	27	6	22%	11%	122	+2.9	228/334/439	211	255	29	6	23%	11%	119	+1.8
✕Justin Upton 2021 · MLB	33	43→53	59→65	41→55	49	234/320/437	203	283	28	5	28%	10%	114	+2.3	215/299/394	179	279	24	7	31%	10%	96	+1.0	193/283/365	172	249	24	5	32%	10%	84	+0.1
★Carlos Delgado 2005 · MLB	33	49→59	66→70	41→30	57	270/368/529	259	289	34	2	20%	11%	151	+5.1	268/350/518	250	290	32	2	20%	9%	142	+4.4	265/343/505	241	286	31	1	20%	9%	138	+4.2
●Christian Walker 2023 · MLB	32	44→53	58→65	41→45	52	240/317/442	202	264	27	3	21%	9%	113	+2.3	244/318/459	215	271	29	6	22%	9%	118	+2.6	241/314/452	211	273	29	5	24%	8%	115	+2.5
●Brandon Moss 2016 · MLB	32	44→53	59→65	43→45	49	236/315/445	209	285	27	2	27%	9%	113	+2.3	228/299/459	231	276	32	4	30%	9%	111	+2.1	218/291/470	252	254	37	2	31%	8%	112	+1.6
✕John Mabry 2005 · MLB	34	50	56→60	41→30	49	263/326/453	190	298	25	3	21%	8%	118	+2.7	233/299/388	155	282	18	3	23%	8%	93	+0.8	218/284/359	141	266	15	0	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Marcus Thames 2010 · MLB	33	44→46	62→70	35→40	46	243/301/462	219	278	32	3	26%	8%	112	+2.2	247/309/428	181	296	25	4	25%	8%	107	+1.8	273/337/451	177	330	27	0	25%	8%	123	+1.3
✕Chris Davis 2018 · MLB	32	40→50	60→70	41→40	50	220/316/434	214	292	30	2	34%	12%	111	+2.1	187/269/331	144	272	19	3	37%	9%	70	-0.8	166/249/290	124	245	17	1	38%	9%	54	-1.5

Matt Olson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps