Matt Olson — OGILVIE

Matt Olson1B Atlanta Braves

Age 32 L/R 6'4" / 225 lbs MLB BB -5% Svc 10.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.8 · 2026

wRC+†vL 136144vR 144

AVG/OBP/SLG.246 / .341 / .477

PA645

HR31

K%24

BB%12

xwOBA.384

Barrel%19.7%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

66→66

PWR

72↗76

SPD

35→35

FLD

62→62

EYE

61↗63

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.9peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2016

Service 10.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+3.8	$30M	+$8M
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+2.3	$19M	-$3M
2028	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+1.6	$14M	-$8M
2029	Ext / FA-deal	$22M	+0.9	$4M	-$18M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$20M	+0.2	$0.9M	-$19M
Totals		$108M		$68M	-$40M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$40M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	197	184	37	11	1	6	9	66	2	0	0	.201	.246	.370	.616	.168	.272	34	5	.260	57	-10	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.8
2013	19	A	Beloit Snappers	558	503	81	23	0	16	50	194	2	4	3	.161	.240	.302	.542	.141	.220	35	9	.243	44	-35	-0	+0	-10	+16	-3.0
2014	20	A+	2 teams	680	590	119	25	1	32	84	197	6	4	1	.202	.307	.410	.718	.208	.241	29	12	.312	97	-2	+0	+0	-12	+19	0.5
2015	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	585	510	94	25	0	15	61	200	6	5	1	.184	.279	.322	.601	.137	.261	34	10	.271	66	-23	+1	+0	-10	+17	-1.6
2016	22	AAA	2 teams	568	506	94	30	1	15	57	174	0	1	0	.186	.268	.338	.606	.152	.247	31	10	.268	63	-24	+0	+0	-6	+16	-1.3
2017	23	AAA	2 teams	559	497	114	14	1	42	53	167	6	3	0	.229	.311	.515	.826	.286	.247	30	9	.348	124	+15	+1	+1	-10	+16	2.3
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	660	580	145	29	0	33	70	163	8	2	1	.250	.339	.471	.810	.221	.290	25	11	.348	125	+18	+0	-2	-12	+19	2.3
2019	25	MLB	2 teams	571	505	138	25	0	39	52	142	13	0	0	.273	.356	.554	.911	.281	.305	25	9	.379	148	+31	+0	+1	-10	+16	3.9
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	245	210	41	4	1	15	34	77	1	1	0	.195	.310	.438	.748	.243	.220	31	14	.324	106	+2	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.2
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	673	565	157	35	0	42	88	113	9	4	1	.278	.384	.563	.947	.285	.273	17	13	.387	155	+42	+0	-7	-12	+19	4.3
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	699	616	141	42	0	30	75	170	4	0	0	.229	.317	.443	.760	.214	.264	24	11	.321	104	+3	+0	-5	-12	+20	0.6
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	720	608	165	26	2	52	104	167	4	1	0	.271	.381	.577	.959	.306	.288	23	14	.399	164	+52	+0	-9	-13	+20	5.1
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	685	600	149	35	1	31	71	170	9	0	0	.248	.337	.465	.802	.217	.292	25	10	.345	123	+17	+0	-4	-12	+19	2.1
2025	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	724	624	170	43	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	.272	.369	.487	.856	.215	.333	24	13	.375	145	+37	+0	+0	-13	+21	4.6
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	32	MLB	Atlanta Braves	117	103	29	11	0	7	13	30	0	0	0	.282	.362	.592	.954	.311	.328	26	11	.397	162	+8	+0	+1	-2	+3	1.0
ROS	32	MLB	ATL	528	458	116	31	1	27	62	130	3	1	0	.253	.346	.502	.848	.249	.292	25	12	.369	140	+24	+0	-2	-9	+15	2.8
TOT	32	MLB	ATL	645	561	145	42	1	34	75	160	3	1	0	.258	.349	.519	.868	.260	.299	25	12	.374	144	+32	+0	-2	-12	+18	3.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	33	MLB	ATL	615	535	132	35	1	30	72	120	3	0	0	.247	.339	.484	.823	.237	.263	20	12	.363	136	+25	+0	-7	-11	+17	2.5
2028	34	MLB	ATL	565	491	120	32	1	27	66	115	3	0	0	.244	.338	.479	.816	.234	.261	20	12	.355	130	+19	+0	-7	-10	+16	1.8
2029	35	MLB	ATL	508	441	105	28	1	23	59	108	3	0	0	.238	.332	.463	.795	.224	.257	21	12	.346	123	+13	+0	-8	-9	+14	1.1
2030	36	MLB	ATL	446	390	88	23	1	19	51	100	2	0	0	.226	.318	.436	.754	.210	.253	22	11	.335	114	+7	+0	-8	-8	+13	0.4
2031	37	MLB	ATL	379	331	73	19	1	15	43	88	2	0	0	.221	.314	.420	.734	.199	.248	23	11	.323	105	+2	+0	-9	-7	+11	-0.3
2032	38	MLB	ATL	308	270	58	15	1	12	34	74	1	0	0	.215	.305	.411	.716	.196	.242	24	11	.310	95	-2	+0	-9	-6	+9	-0.8
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11473	10014	2337	550	17	550	1286	2911	91	27	7	.233	.326	.456	.783	.223	.270	25	11	.337	116	+213	+3	-78	-201	+325	26.7
/ 162G	—			650	567	132	31	1	31	73	165	5	2	0	.233	.326	.455	.781	.222	.269	25	11	.337	116	+12	+0	-4	-11	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2012	18	ROK	AZL Athletics	197	177	50	16	1	8	16	46	2	0	0	.282	.349	.520	.868	.237	.336	23	8	.376	146	+10	+0	—	—	+6	1.6
2013	19	A	Beloit Snappers	558	481	108	32	0	23	72	148	2	4	3	.225	.328	.435	.762	.210	.272	27	13	.338	117	+11	-0	—	—	+16	2.7
2014	20	A+	Stockton Ports	634	512	134	31	1	37	117	137	5	2	0	.262	.404	.543	.947	.281	.287	22	18	.414	175	+54	+0	—	—	+18	7.4
2014	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	46	35	9	1	1	4	10	9	1	2	1	.257	.435	.686	1.120	.429	.227	20	22	.471	218	+6	+0	—	—	+1	0.8
2015	21	AA	Midland RockHounds	585	466	116	37	0	17	105	139	6	5	1	.249	.393	.438	.831	.189	.311	24	18	.370	142	+27	+1	—	—	+17	4.6
2016	22	MLB	Oakland Athletics	28	21	2	1	0	0	7	4	0	0	0	.095	.321	.143	.464	.048	.118	14	25	.253	52	-2	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.7
2016	22	AAA	Nashville Sounds	540	464	109	34	1	17	71	132	0	1	0	.235	.336	.422	.759	.188	.289	24	13	.337	116	+10	+0	—	—	+15	2.6
2017	23	MLB	Oakland Athletics	216	189	49	2	0	24	22	60	5	0	0	.259	.352	.651	1.003	.392	.238	28	10	.428	185	+21	+0	+1	-10	+6	1.8
2017	23	AAA	Nashville Sounds	343	294	80	16	1	23	45	83	1	3	0	.272	.371	.568	.939	.296	.298	24	13	.403	167	+26	+1	—	—	+10	3.7
2018	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	660	580	143	33	0	29	70	163	8	2	1	.247	.336	.453	.789	.207	.292	25	11	.350	126	+19	+0	-2	-12	+19	2.4
2019	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	547	483	129	26	0	36	51	138	12	0	0	.267	.352	.545	.896	.277	.300	25	9	.390	157	+35	+0	+1	-10	+15	4.2
2019	25	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	24	22	4	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	.182	.250	.318	.568	.136	.167	12	4	.260	57	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2020	26	MLB	Oakland Athletics	245	210	41	4	1	14	34	77	1	1	0	.195	.310	.424	.734	.229	.227	31	14	.328	109	+2	+0	-2	-4	+7	0.3
2021	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	673	565	153	35	0	39	88	113	9	4	1	.271	.378	.540	.917	.269	.269	17	13	.395	160	+46	+0	-7	-12	+19	4.7
2022	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	699	616	148	44	0	34	75	170	4	0	0	.240	.327	.477	.804	.237	.274	24	11	.352	127	+22	+0	-5	-12	+20	2.5
2023	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	720	608	172	27	3	54	104	167	4	1	0	.283	.391	.604	.995	.321	.302	23	14	.426	184	+69	+0	-9	-13	+20	6.9
2024	30	MLB	Atlanta Braves	685	600	148	37	1	29	71	170	9	0	0	.247	.335	.457	.792	.210	.293	25	10	.349	125	+19	+0	-4	-12	+19	2.4
2025	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	724	624	170	41	2	29	91	176	4	1	0	.272	.369	.484	.853	.212	.333	24	13	.375	145	+37	+0	+0	-13	+21	4.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			5197	4496	1155	250	7	288	613	1238	56	9	2	.257	.353	.508	.861	.251	.289	24	12	.376	146	+268	+1	-27	-105	+147	29.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Olson (OGILVIE)	32	66	72→76	35	63	.251/.343/.497	.246	.265	33	1	19%	12%	140	+4.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Lucas Duda 2018 · MLB	32	42→52	64→65	40→30	54	.235/.332/.483	.248	.269	32	2	26%	11%	131	+3.9	.224/.302/.422	.198	.278	26	3	29%	9%	104	+2.0	.209/.281/.375	.167	.266	22	1	30%	7%	79	+0.1
✕Jay Bruce 2019 · MLB	32	47→55	61→65	42→50	52	.251/.321/.476	.225	.279	28	4	22%	9%	125	+3.5	.224/.287/.445	.221	.248	30	4	24%	8%	103	+1.9	.196/.246/.452	.256	.192	38	1	24%	6%	85	+0.3
★Matt Carpenter 2018 · MLB	32	51→61	59→65	40→45	64	.261/.376/.490	.229	.297	24	3	20%	15%	150	+5.2	.246/.362/.471	.225	.290	26	5	23%	14%	140	+4.5	.236/.354/.457	.221	.283	26	4	25%	14%	125	+2.6
●Luke Scott 2010 · MLB	32	49→55	60→65	44→45	55	.258/.339/.482	.224	.285	27	3	20%	11%	134	+4.1	.256/.334/.468	.212	.289	26	4	21%	10%	128	+3.7	.247/.325/.456	.208	.280	25	4	21%	9%	116	+1.8
●Justin Smoak 2019 · MLB	32	47→52	60→65	40→30	57	.250/.344/.469	.219	.293	28	2	25%	12%	133	+4.0	.228/.335/.426	.198	.267	25	2	24%	13%	118	+3.0	.200/.323/.389	.188	.226	24	0	23%	14%	101	+0.9
★Paul Konerko 2008 · MLB	32	52→59	63→65	42→30	59	.280/.364/.514	.234	.289	31	2	16%	11%	152	+5.3	.268/.356/.480	.212	.282	27	2	16%	11%	140	+4.5	.285/.372/.491	.206	.301	27	1	15%	11%	137	+4.5
★Jeromy Burnitz 2002 · MLB	33	45→52	61→65	39→45	60	.244/.350/.477	.233	.265	29	4	21%	13%	137	+4.3	.242/.327/.459	.217	.271	29	7	22%	10%	124	+3.4	.259/.327/.489	.229	.278	31	5	19%	8%	124	+3.3
●Ryan Ludwick 2010 · MLB	32	52→56	60→65	41→45	50	.274/.343/.497	.223	.309	28	6	22%	8%	140	+4.5	.256/.327/.436	.180	.300	22	3	22%	9%	118	+3.0	.249/.324/.424	.175	.291	21	0	22%	9%	107	+1.9
✕Chris Davis 2018 · MLB	32	43→53	63→70	41→40	52	.230/.330/.461	.230	.303	32	2	34%	12%	125	+3.5	.193/.279/.347	.154	.279	21	3	36%	10%	75	-0.0	.170/.256/.298	.128	.251	18	1	38%	9%	49	-1.3
●Brandon Moss 2016 · MLB	32	46→51	60→65	44→45	51	.244/.328/.463	.219	.295	28	3	27%	10%	124	+3.4	.229/.305/.455	.226	.281	31	3	30%	9%	114	+2.7	.216/.292/.459	.242	.257	35	2	31%	9%	106	+1.5
✕Richie Sexson 2007 · MLB	32	48→54	65	42→30	55	.263/.349/.517	.254	.298	33	2	24%	11%	147	+5.0	.234/.321/.437	.203	.268	26	3	23%	11%	115	+2.8	.210/.306/.390	.179	.236	24	1	23%	11%	94	+0.9
●Brandon Belt 2022 · MLB	34	49→59	63→65	44→50	59	.264/.365/.511	.247	.301	31	5	23%	13%	151	+5.3	.254/.358/.475	.221	.331	28	4	29%	13%	140	+4.5	.242/.357/.442	.199	.336	24	1	32%	14%	124	+2.0
●Joc Pederson 2023 · MLB	31	47→52	58→65	43→55	50	.248/.326/.455	.207	.287	27	5	24%	9%	122	+3.3	.247/.347/.445	.198	.287	25	5	22%	11%	128	+3.6	.231/.345/.419	.189	.265	24	5	22%	12%	115	+1.8
●C.J. Cron 2021 · MLB	31	46→53	64→65	42→40	46	.255/.323/.494	.240	.284	33	3	24%	7%	131	+3.9	.249/.326/.445	.196	.293	24	2	23%	9%	119	+3.1	.245/.319/.429	.184	.291	23	0	24%	8%	108	+1.8
●Robert Saucedo 2007 · AAA	31	51→57	62→65	41→40	49	.276/.327/.499	.223	.276	32	5	15%	6%	134	+4.1	.268/.312/.471	.203	.273	27	4	14%	5%	121	+3.2	.273/.316/.473	.200	.275	27	2	13%	5%	121	+2.3
✕Yoenis Cespedes 2018 · MLB	32	54→57	64→65	44→50	49	.289/.347/.533	.244	.317	31	5	20%	8%	151	+5.3	.271/.336/.498	.227	.328	30	8	26%	8%	137	+4.3	.272/.337/.514	.241	.354	36	11	32%	8%	134	+1.1
✕Carlos González 2017 · MLB	31	51→61	60→65	46→55	48	.270/.324/.484	.215	.303	28	4	22%	7%	128	+3.7	.257/.322/.427	.170	.310	19	5	22%	9%	112	+2.6	.242/.315/.389	.147	.300	15	4	23%	9%	92	+0.8
●Carlos Pena 2010 · MLB	32	44→49	70	42→45	63	.248/.374/.535	.287	.282	37	3	27%	15%	160	+5.9	.217/.343/.442	.225	.261	29	4	28%	15%	125	+3.5	.204/.338/.401	.196	.253	25	3	28%	15%	104	+2.0
●Adam Dunn 2011 · MLB	31	48→51	67→70	39→50	61	.258/.375/.524	.266	.312	34	2	28%	15%	159	+5.8	.212/.327/.417	.205	.283	27	2	32%	14%	113	+2.6	.209/.326/.428	.220	.263	32	1	32%	14%	105	+2.1
✕Refugio Cervantes 2012 · AAA	33	51→56	59→65	40→30	45	.272/.308/.476	.204	.279	29	2	16%	5%	120	+3.1	.250/.282/.420	.170	.287	23	3	22%	4%	95	+1.4	.235/.263/.379	.144	.284	19	0	25%	3%	76	+0.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)