Joc Pederson

LF Texas Rangers

Age 35 L/L 6'1" / 220 lbs MLB HR +15%BB +5% Svc 12.163 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	MLBARI	449	.275/.391/.515	23	7	151	3.3
2025	33	MLBTEX	306	.181/.285/.328	9	2	73	-0.8
2026	34	MLBTEX	432	.235/.331/.487	26	2	119	1.2
2027PROJ	35	MLBTEX	246	.242/.337/.473	13	2	122	0.8
2028PROJ	36	MLBTEX	178	.229/.323/.443	9	0	111	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.6 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service12.163First FA2028Options5

2027Ext / FA-deal$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Avg EV90

xwOBA85

Barrel%72

Bat Spd55

Speed10

Form.243/.327/.482 ▲ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .239/.332/.459

CompsAdam LaRoche (age 35) · Ken Griffey Jr. (age 35) · Josh Willingham (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†122

AVG/OBP/SLG.242 / .337 / .473

PA246

HR13

K%23

BB%11

BABIP266

ISO235

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

390.243

POWER

Barrel%

7211.4

Avg EV

9091.9

Bat Spd

5571.8

SPEED

Sprint

1025.0

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%23%▼24% over 33 PA (60d) · proj 23%

BB%10%▼6% over 33 PA (60d) · proj 11%

ISO.239▲.345 over 29 AB (60d) · proj .220

BABIP.264·.222 over 18 BIP (60d) · proj .265

SLASH.243/.327/.482▲proj .239/.332/.459

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 806 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

764

—

wRC+

125

118

◀L

wOBA

353

343

—

ISO

125

192

▶▶R

BABIP

462

274

◀◀L

42.9%

21.9%

▶▶R

BB%

16.7%

11.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2014

Service 12.163 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$5M	+0.7	$3M	-$2M
Totals		$5M		$3M	-$2M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$4.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$18.5M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$27.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2030	MUTUAL OPT	$4.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2031	MUTUAL OPT	$14.0M / $3.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2011	19	A	Great Lakes Loons	—	60	50	8	0	0	0	7	9	2	2	0	160	288	160	448		195	15	12	227	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK	Ogden Raptors	—	310	266	94	20	2	11	36	54	3	24	5	353	436	568	1.004	214	403	17	12	433	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	499	434	136	26	4	18	51	81	10	26	14	313	398	516	914	203	350	16	10	401	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	56	52	5	0	0	1	3	6	1	3	1	96	161	154	315	58	89	11	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	519	439	122	24	3	22	70	114	5	31	8	278	383	497	880	219	327	22	13	385	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	149	110	28	7	1	5	36	42	1	2	1	255	442	473	915	218	359	28	24	406	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	38	28	4	0	0	0	9	11	0	0	0	143	351	143	494		235	29	24	260	68	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2014	22	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	553	446	135	17	4	33	100	149	5	30	13	303	436	581	1.016	278	385	27	18	441	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	94	83	22	3	1	1	10	33	1	3	0	265	351	361	713	96	429	35	11	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	585	480	101	19	1	26	92	170	9	4	7	210	348	417	764	206	262	29	16	343	116	+11	-2	+1	+2	+13	2.6
2016	24	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	476	406	100	26	0	25	63	130	4	6	2	246	353	495	848	249	296	27	13	371	136	+20	+0	+1	+2	+10	3.4
2017	25	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	323	273	58	20	0	11	39	68	10	4	3	212	332	407	739	194	241	21	12	333	114	+5	-0	-7	+1	+7	0.7
2017	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	71	65	11	1	0	3	5	14	0	1	0	169	229	323	552	154	163	20	7	244	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	443	395	98	27	3	25	40	85	4	1	5	248	323	522	845	273	253	19	9	364	133	+17	-2	-9	-5	+10	1.2
2019	27	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	514	450	112	16	3	36	50	111	12	1	1	249	340	538	878	289	249	22	10	381	143	+26	-0	-5	-6	+11	2.8
2020	28	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	138	121	23	4	0	7	11	34	5	1	0	190	283	397	679	207	200	25	8	304	92	-1	+0	-2	-1	+3	-0.1
2021	29	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	481	429	102	19	3	18	39	117	8	2	3	238	313	422	735	184	281	24	8	324	105	+3	-1	-7	-5	+10	0.1
2022	30	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	433	380	104	19	3	23	42	100	7	3	2	274	357	521	878	247	310	23	10	381	148	+25	-0	-11	-5	+9	1.9
2023	31	MLB	San Francisco Giants	—	425	358	84	14	3	15	57	89	7	0	0	235	351	416	767	182	268	21	13	344	117	+9	+0	-3	-5	+9	1.0
2024	32	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	449	367	101	17	1	23	55	105	18	7	4	275	391	515	906	240	322	23	12	395	151	+27	-0	+0	-5	+10	3.3
2025	33	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	306	265	48	10	1	9	34	65	5	2	0	181	285	328	614	147	203	21	11	281	73	-10	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.8
2026	34	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	432	374	88	12	2	26	49	102	5	2	0	235	331	487	818	251	249	24	11	357	119	+10	+0	-0	-8	+9	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	5043	4326	1023	203	20	244	580	1187	94	33	27	236	339	462	801	225	266	24	12	352	125	+148	-4	-41	-36	+109	17.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2011	19	A MLE	Great Lakes Loons	—	60	52	8	0	0	0	5	13	2	2	0	154	254	154	408		198	22	8	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Ogden Raptors	—	310	282	73	14	1	8	20	78	3	24	5	259	315	401	715	142	320	25	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	—	499	450	123	23	3	16	35	110	10	26	14	273	339	444	784	171	322	22	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	519	467	113	22	3	19	42	138	5	31	8	242	311	424	735	182	293	27	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	38	28	4	0	0	0	9	11	0	0	0	143	351	143	494		235	29	24	268	68	-1	+0	+0	+2	+1	0.2
2014	22	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	553	477	111	14	3	23	69	201	5	30	13	233	336	419	755	187	343	36	12	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	585	486	102	20	1	25	86	170	9	4	7	210	339	409	749	200	262	29	15	340	116	+11	-2	+1	+2	+13	2.6
2016	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	476	410	101	28	0	24	59	130	4	6	2	246	347	490	837	244	296	27	12	369	136	+20	+0	+1	+2	+10	3.4
2017	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	323	274	59	21	0	11	38	68	10	4	3	215	332	412	745	197	241	21	12	337	114	+5	-0	-7	+1	+7	0.7
2017	25	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	71	66	9	1	0	2	4	18	0	1	0	136	186	242	428	106	151	25	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	443	398	100	29	4	24	37	85	4	1	5	251	321	525	846	274	253	19	8	365	133	+17	-2	-9	-5	+10	1.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	514	452	114	17	4	35	48	111	12	1	1	252	340	540	880	288	249	22	9	380	143	+26	-0	-5	-6	+11	2.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	138	122	23	4	0	7	11	34	5	1	0	189	283	393	676	205	200	25	8	305	92	-1	+0	-2	-1	+3	-0.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	481	429	102	19	3	18	39	117	8	2	3	238	313	422	735	184	281	24	8	324	105	+3	-1	-7	-5	+10	0.1
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	433	383	107	19	3	25	39	100	7	3	2	279	357	540	897	261	310	23	9	387	148	+25	-0	-11	-5	+9	1.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	425	364	86	14	3	16	51	89	7	0	0	236	341	423	764	187	268	21	12	341	117	+9	+0	-3	-5	+9	1.0
2024	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	449	374	100	15	1	24	53	105	18	7	4	267	384	505	890	238	322	23	12	391	151	+27	-0	+0	-5	+10	3.3
2025	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	306	266	47	10	1	8	34	65	5	2	0	177	282	312	594	135	203	21	11	276	73	-10	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.8
2026	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	432	377	86	12	2	24	47	102	5	2	0	228	322	462	783	233	249	24	11	344	119	+10	+0	-0	-8	+9	1.2
2011	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	370	334	81	14	1	8	25	91	5	26	5	243	305	362	667	120	304	25	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	370	316	102	20	2	11	43	63	5	26	5	323	412	503	915	180	368	17	12	400	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	555	501	136	26	3	17	39	123	11	29	15	271	338	437	775	166	328	22	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	555	486	141	26	4	19	54	87	11	29	15	290	374	477	851	187	319	16	10	375	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	668	602	144	28	3	24	53	178	6	33	9	239	307	415	722	176	297	27	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	668	549	150	31	4	27	106	156	6	33	9	273	396	492	888	219	332	23	16	390	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	685	585	133	16	3	27	91	246	6	33	13	227	337	403	741	176	339	36	13	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	685	557	161	20	5	34	119	193	6	33	13	289	419	526	945	237	384	28	17	415	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	585	486	102	20	1	25	86	170	9	4	7	210	339	409	749	200	263	29	15	340	116	+11	-2	+1	+2	+13	2.6
2015	23	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	585	480	101	19	1	26	92	170	9	4	7	210	348	417	764	206	262	29	16	343	116	+11	-2	+1	+2	+13	2.6
2016	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	476	410	101	28	0	24	59	130	4	6	2	246	347	490	837	244	298	27	12	369	136	+20	+0	+1	+2	+10	3.4
2016	24	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	476	406	100	26	0	25	63	130	4	6	2	246	353	495	848	249	296	27	13	371	136	+20	+0	+1	+2	+10	3.4
2017	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	340	69	22	0	13	42	86	10	5	3	203	309	382	691	179	230	22	11	312	97	-1	-0	-7	+1	+9	0.2
2017	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	394	338	69	21	0	14	44	82	10	5	3	204	314	391	704	186	225	21	11	317	97	-1	-0	-7	+1	+9	0.2
2018	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	443	398	100	29	4	24	37	85	4	1	5	251	321	525	846	274	260	19	8	365	133	+17	-2	-9	-5	+10	1.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	443	395	98	27	3	25	40	85	4	1	5	248	323	522	845	273	253	19	9	364	133	+17	-2	-9	-5	+10	1.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	514	452	114	17	4	35	48	111	12	1	1	252	340	540	880	288	256	22	9	380	143	+26	-0	-5	-6	+11	2.8
2019	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	514	450	112	16	3	36	50	111	12	1	1	249	340	538	878	289	249	22	10	381	143	+26	-0	-5	-6	+11	2.8
2020	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	138	122	23	4	0	7	11	34	5	1	0	189	283	393	676	205	198	25	8	305	92	-1	+0	-2	-1	+3	-0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	138	121	23	4	0	7	11	34	5	1	0	190	283	397	679	207	200	25	8	304	92	-1	+0	-2	-1	+3	-0.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	481	429	102	19	3	18	39	117	8	2	3	238	313	422	735	184	281	24	8	324	105	+3	-1	-7	-5	+10	0.1
2021	29	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	481	429	102	19	3	18	39	117	8	2	3	238	313	422	735	184	281	24	8	324	105	+3	-1	-7	-5	+10	0.1
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	433	383	107	19	3	25	39	100	7	3	2	279	357	540	897	261	313	23	9	387	148	+25	-0	-11	-5	+9	1.9
2022	30	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	433	380	104	19	3	23	42	100	7	3	2	274	357	521	878	247	310	23	10	381	148	+25	-0	-11	-5	+9	1.9
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	425	364	86	14	3	16	51	89	7	0	0	236	341	423	764	187	267	21	12	341	117	+9	+0	-3	-5	+9	1.0
2023	31	MLB RAW	San Francisco Giants	—	425	358	84	14	3	15	57	89	7	0	0	235	351	416	767	182	268	21	13	344	117	+9	+0	-3	-5	+9	1.0
2024	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	449	374	100	15	1	24	53	105	18	7	4	267	384	505	890	238	306	23	12	391	151	+27	-0	+0	-5	+10	3.3
2024	32	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	449	367	101	17	1	23	55	105	18	7	4	275	391	515	906	240	322	23	12	395	151	+27	-0	+0	-5	+10	3.3
2025	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	306	266	47	10	1	8	34	65	5	2	0	177	282	312	594	135	201	21	11	276	73	-10	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.8
2025	33	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	306	265	48	10	1	9	34	65	5	2	0	181	285	328	614	147	203	21	11	281	73	-10	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.8
2026	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	432	377	86	12	2	24	47	102	5	2	0	228	322	462	783	233	244	24	11	344	119	+10	+0	-0	-8	+9	1.2
2026	34	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	432	374	88	12	2	26	49	102	5	2	0	235	331	487	818	251	249	24	11	357	119	+10	+0	-0	-8	+9	1.2
2011	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	370	337	81	14	1	8	25	91	5	26	5	240	305	359	664	119	300	25	7	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	555	500	136	26	3	17	39	123	11	29	15	272	338	438	776	166	322	22	7	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	668	604	144	28	3	24	53	178	6	33	9	238	307	414	721	175	293	27	8	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	685	583	133	16	3	27	91	246	6	33	13	228	337	405	742	177	336	36	13	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	585	485	102	20	1	25	86	170	9	4	7	210	339	410	749	200	262	29	15	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	476	410	101	28	0	24	59	130	4	6	2	246	347	490	837	244	296	27	12	369	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	394	339	69	22	0	13	42	86	10	5	3	204	309	383	692	180	225	22	11	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	443	399	100	29	4	24	37	85	4	1	5	251	321	524	845	273	253	19	8	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	514	449	114	17	4	35	48	111	12	1	1	254	340	543	883	290	249	22	9	380	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	138	121	23	4	0	7	11	34	5	1	0	190	283	397	679	207	200	25	8	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	481	431	102	19	3	18	39	117	8	2	3	237	313	420	733	183	281	24	8	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	433	384	107	19	3	25	39	100	7	3	2	279	357	539	896	260	310	23	9	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	MLB MLE	San Francisco Giants	—	425	364	86	14	3	16	51	89	7	0	0	236	341	423	764	187	268	21	12	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	449	375	100	15	1	24	53	105	18	7	4	267	384	504	888	237	322	23	12	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	306	264	47	10	1	8	34	65	5	2	0	178	282	314	596	136	203	21	11	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	432	377	86	12	2	24	47	102	5	2	0	228	322	462	783	233	249	24	11	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	449	375	100	15	1	24	53	105	18	7	4	267	384	504	888	237	322	23	12	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	306	264	47	10	1	8	34	65	5	2	0	178	282	314	596	136	203	21	11	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	432	377	86	12	2	24	47	102	5	2	0	228	322	462	783	233	249	24	11	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	35	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	358	311	74	13	2	17	39	82	5	3	1	239	334	459	794	220	265	23	11	349	122	+10	+0	-1	-4	+8	0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	35	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	246	213	52	9	1	13	27	56	4	2	1	242	337	473	811	231	266	23	11	355	122	+7	+0	-1	-3	+5	0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	TEX	100%	178	155	35	6	1	8	19	42	2	0	0	226	321	430	750	204	254	24	11	332	111	+2	+0	-7	-2	+4	-0.3
2028	36	MLB CTX	TEX	100%	178	155	36	6	1	9	19	42	2	0	0	229	323	443	766	214	254	24	11	338	111	+2	+0	-7	-2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5221	4481	1059	209	21	253	599	1229	96	33	27	236	338	462	800	225	266	24	11	352	117	+150	-4	-48	-38	+113	17.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	558	132	26	3	31	75	153	12	4	3	237	340	461	800	224	267	24	12	352	117	+19	-1	-6	-5	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	7778	6791	1617	308	34	339	800	1930	128	157	70	238	330	443	773	205	280	25	10	341	117	+157	-4	-49	-41	+118	18.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	568	135	26	3	28	67	161	11	13	6	238	330	442	772	204	279	25	10	341	117	+19	-0	-6	-5	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 71 PAwOBA .241 → .198 (−43)K% 19.7% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.72%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	25.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.04%	÷1.017	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	13.73%	÷0.978	×0.900	×1.004	×1.033	13.11%
Doubles /BIP	1.96%	÷1.038	×0.810	×1.004	×1.033	1.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×1.004	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷0.989	×0.780	—	×1.033	4.79%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .241 → .198; ISO .154 → .121; BABIP .163 → .151. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 553 PAwOBA .429 → .332 (−97)K% 26.9% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.94%	÷0.955	×1.290	—	—	36.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.54%	÷1.049	×0.710	—	×1.050	12.46%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.93%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.008	×0.900	×0.999	×1.050	25.55%
Doubles /BIP	5.72%	÷0.982	×0.810	×0.999	×1.050	4.95%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.999	×1.050	1.00%
Home runs /BIP	11.11%	÷1.078	×0.780	—	×1.050	8.45%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 102, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 91, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .429 → .332; ISO .278 → .201; BABIP .385 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 519 PAwOBA .375 → .317 (−57)K% 22.0% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.97%	÷1.006	×1.220	—	—	26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.52%	÷1.118	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.00%
HBP% /PA	0.96%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.85%
Singles /BIP	22.46%	÷1.053	×0.920	×1.002	×1.050	20.64%
Doubles /BIP	7.38%	÷1.080	×0.910	×1.002	×1.050	6.54%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.135	×0.880	×1.002	×1.050	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	6.77%	÷1.001	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.68%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 111, 2B 116, 3B 127, K 101, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .375 → .317; ISO .219 → .191; BABIP .327 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Rancho Cucamonga Quakes · 499 PAwOBA .391 → .335 (−56)K% 16.2% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.23%	÷0.985	×1.340	—	—	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.02%	÷1.038	×0.710	—	×1.042	7.14%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	1.65%
Singles /BIP	24.93%	÷1.007	×0.910	×0.996	×1.042	23.37%
Doubles /BIP	7.37%	÷0.941	×0.820	×0.996	×1.042	6.66%
Triples /BIP	1.13%	÷0.993	×0.760	×0.996	×1.042	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷1.086	×0.920	—	×1.042	4.50%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 101, 2B 88, 3B 99, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .391 → .335; ISO .203 → .175; BABIP .350 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 ROKOgden Raptors · 310 PAwOBA .426 → .319 (−107)K% 17.4% → 25.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.42%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	25.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.65%	÷1.000	×0.610	—	×1.008	6.54%
HBP% /PA	0.97%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.70%
Singles /BIP	28.77%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.006	×1.008	23.92%
Doubles /BIP	9.43%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.006	×1.008	6.89%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.006	×1.008	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	5.19%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.008	3.92%

Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .426 → .319; ISO .214 → .158; BABIP .403 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AGreat Lakes Loons · 60 PAwOBA .222 → .194 (−28)K% 15.0% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷0.957	×1.360	—	—	21.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.67%	÷1.018	×0.690	—	×1.045	8.26%
HBP% /PA	3.33%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.72%
Singles /BIP	19.51%	÷0.991	×0.920	×1.044	×1.045	19.77%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.911	×0.830	×1.044	×1.045	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.095	×0.910	×1.044	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.917	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 98, 2B 82, 3B 119, K 91, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .222 → .194; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .195 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jay Buhner'87-'01 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,927 PA	8.9	5,927	310	6	245*	347*	496*	-64	-45	28.0	24.9
/162	664	35	1	-7.2	-5.0	3.1	pk7: 22
#2Nick Swisherlast yr '15 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,308 PA	9.5	6,308	245	13	249	351	447	-62	-56	24.5	24.4
/162	664	26	1	-6.5	-5.9	2.6	pk7: 24
#3Mike Napolilast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,330 PA	8.0	5,330	267	39	246	346	475	-19	-59	26.4	24.3
/162	664	33	5	-2.3	-7.4	3.3	pk7: 22
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 14 projected seasons	8.2	5,429	264	35	238	336	465	-61	-57	24.3	22.1
/162	664	32	4	-7.4	-6.9	3.0	pk7: 20
#4Jeromy Burnitz'93-'06 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,579 PA	9.9	6,579	315	74	243*	330*	466*	-62	-31	22.9	21.7
/162	664	32	7	-6.3	-3.1	2.3	pk7: 20
#5Jeff Burroughs'70-'85 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,449 PA	9.7	6,449	240	16	258*	356*	478*	-85	-77	20.8	20.5
/162	664	25	2	-8.8	-7.9	2.1	pk7: 20
#6Khris Davislast yr '21 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,804 PA	5.7	3,804	221	18	242	314	491	-40	-39	13.3	13.4
/162	664	39	3	-7.0	-6.9	2.3	pk7: 13

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joc Pederson (OGILVIE)	35	—	—	—	—	237/332/455	218	265	12	2	23%	11%	122	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Adam LaRoche 2015 · MLB	35	47→53	56→65	48→40	56	249/333/437	189	275	25	4	20%	11%	118	+2.6	229/313/383	154	283	18	4	25%	10%	98	+1.2	206/293/336	130	268	15	0	27%	10%	80	-0.1
★Ken Griffey Jr. 2005 · MLB	35	46→54	64→70	46→45	56	252/341/495	244	265	32	4	20%	11%	134	+3.8	270/340/513	243	278	34	3	17%	9%	138	+4.1	270/341/506	236	275	33	2	16%	9%	137	+3.7
✕Josh Willingham 2014 · MLB	35	44→53	58→65	45	56	236/344/446	210	280	26	4	25%	12%	124	+3.1	228/337/410	182	287	22	6	27%	12%	114	+2.3	208/330/391	183	260	24	3	28%	13%	107	+1.2
✕Kole Calhoun 2022 · MLB	34	43→53	60	46→50	52	235/317/448	213	262	29	5	24%	10%	115	+2.4	217/282/369	152	272	18	4	26%	7%	83	+0.1	207/270/350	143	261	16	2	27%	7%	74	-0.4
●Matt Stairs 2005 · MLB	37	51→55	58→65	46→45	55	267/348/476	208	291	26	3	18%	10%	132	+3.6	265/345/452	187	297	21	3	18%	10%	125	+3.2	265/348/461	196	294	22	1	17%	10%	129	+2.4
✕Garrett Jones 2014 · MLB	33	47→52	58→60	49→50	47	250/305/460	210	280	26	5	22%	7%	112	+2.2	245/299/418	173	290	19	3	22%	7%	101	+1.4	243/299/410	166	289	18	0	22%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Mitch Moreland 2021 · MLB	35	46→56	62→60	49→40	52	251/324/483	232	275	30	4	22%	10%	125	+3.2	244/309/446	202	279	26	5	23%	8%	111	+2.1	227/289/424	197	256	26	0	23%	7%	99	+0.5
✕David Dellucci 2007 · MLB	33	50→46	61→65	45→50	57	264/358/497	233	300	28	7	22%	12%	140	+4.2	244/316/416	172	288	18	7	21%	8%	106	+1.8	229/294/374	145	276	14	6	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Adam Lind 2018 · MLB	35	51→61	57→60	44→40	50	267/320/458	192	288	25	3	18%	7%	118	+2.6	229/277/379	150	265	19	5	21%	6%	83	+0.1	186/221/296	110	219	14	0	23%	4%	42	-1.4
✕Luke Scott 2012 · MLB	34	48→54	58→65	45	54	251/329/457	206	279	25	4	21%	10%	120	+2.8	235/304/422	187	276	22	6	23%	8%	103	+1.6	223/287/396	173	262	20	4	23%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Olmedo Saenz 2007 · MLB	36	51	60	42→30	48	270/335/494	224	301	28	3	21%	7%	132	+3.6	244/324/428	184	279	22	6	21%	9%	112	+2.2	184/295/333	149	200	18	0	19%	12%	82	+0.0
●Jermaine Dye 2009 · MLB	35	52→61	64→70	44→45	49	280/337/526	246	293	32	4	18%	7%	140	+4.2	260/334/470	210	281	27	4	18%	9%	126	+3.2	248/336/449	201	266	28	0	19%	11%	123	+2.9
●Curtis Granderson 2018 · MLB	37	43→53	60→65	47→50	57	235/332/458	223	261	27	7	22%	12%	122	+3.0	226/322/421	195	277	22	5	25%	12%	110	+2.1	218/320/403	185	274	20	2	27%	12%	106	+1.1
●Robinson Chirinos 2019 · MLB	35	44→46	58→60	48→50	50	233/339/438	205	298	26	4	30%	10%	121	+2.9	229/329/416	187	300	22	4	30%	10%	112	+2.2	212/314/387	175	281	21	1	30%	10%	101	+0.6
✕Tony Clark 2007 · MLB	35	45→55	65→70	47→30	47	254/317/502	248	287	35	3	26%	8%	127	+3.3	238/318/438	200	284	28	3	26%	10%	112	+2.2	220/312/412	192	260	28	0	27%	12%	105	+0.5
✕Lee Stevens 2002 · MLB	35	47→50	57→60	45→30	51	248/321/450	202	290	24	3	24%	9%	116	+2.5	228/310/407	179	265	22	5	22%	10%	102	+1.5	198/293/367	169	220	22	1	21%	12%	88	+0.3
●Hideki Matsui 2010 · MLB	36	53→59	57→60	42→40	59	277/357/474	197	284	25	2	14%	11%	135	+3.8	254/328/414	160	279	19	2	16%	10%	110	+2.1	242/315/382	140	269	17	0	17%	9%	99	+0.9
●Matt Carpenter 2020 · MLB	34	44→54	58→65	48→45	59	236/343/446	211	275	25	6	24%	13%	124	+3.1	220/329/402	182	277	21	6	27%	12%	109	+2.0	220/332/438	218	271	26	2	28%	13%	118	+1.0
✕Stephen Vogt 2020 · MLB	35	47→57	56→60	47→40	49	246/306/449	203	282	22	6	22%	8%	110	+2.1	216/287/381	165	257	19	5	23%	9%	88	+0.4	179/259/328	149	204	20	1	24%	9%	66	-0.4
●Mo Vaughn 2002 · MLB	34	51	60	48→30	50	265/346/480	215	316	29	4	25%	9%	132	+3.7	250/334/439	189	303	26	3	25%	10%	119	+2.7	255/339/449	194	309	28	0	26%	10%	124	+2.8

Joc Pederson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps