Justin Upton

PosLF

B/TR/R

Born1987-08-25

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2020	32	MLBLAA	166	.204/.291/.422	9	0	100	-0.2
2021	33	MLBLAA	362	.211/.298/.409	17	4	98	-0.2
2022	34	AAASEA	53	.200/.288/.378	2	0	34	—	.146/.212/.250
2022	34	MLBSEA	57	.125/.263/.208	1	0	46	-0.4
2023	35	No MLB games played
2024	36	No MLB games played
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2020-2022

Avg EV69

Barrel%63

xwOBA57

Speed43

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	18	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	501	438	115	28	1	12	52	96	5	15	7	263	347	413	761	151	307	19	10	338	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	152	140	31	8	3	2	11	37	1	2	0	221	283	364	647	143	287	24	7	289	70	-6	+0	-2	-7	+3	-1.1
2007	19	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	306	259	80	17	4	13	37	51	5	10	7	309	405	556	961	247	335	17	12	413	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A+	Visalia Oaks	—	150	126	43	6	2	5	19	28	3	9	4	341	439	540	979	198	400	19	13	426	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	417	356	89	19	6	15	54	121	4	1	4	250	355	463	819	213	332	29	13	360	123	+12	-1	-13	-5	+9	0.1
2008	20	AAA	Tucson Sidewinders	—	68	61	17	3	1	3	7	26	0	2	0	279	353	508	861	230	438	38	10	377	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	588	526	158	30	7	26	55	137	2	20	5	300	369	532	901	232	360	23	9	391	148	+34	+2	+2	-6	+13	4.5
2010	22	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	571	495	135	27	3	17	64	152	4	18	8	273	361	442	803	170	354	27	11	354	116	+11	+0	-0	-6	+12	1.7
2011	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	674	592	171	39	5	31	59	126	19	21	9	289	372	529	900	240	319	19	9	393	139	+31	+1	+1	-7	+15	4.1
2012	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	628	554	155	24	4	17	63	121	5	18	8	280	359	430	788	150	327	19	10	350	114	+11	+0	-5	-7	+14	1.3
2013	25	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	643	558	147	27	2	27	75	161	5	8	1	263	356	464	820	201	321	25	12	361	131	+24	+1	-12	-7	+14	2.1
2014	26	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	641	566	153	34	2	29	60	171	6	8	4	270	346	491	837	221	332	27	9	364	134	+26	+0	-10	-7	+14	2.4
2015	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	620	542	136	26	3	26	68	159	4	19	5	251	338	454	792	203	304	26	11	348	120	+15	+2	-6	-7	+13	1.8
2016	28	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	626	570	140	28	2	31	50	179	4	9	4	246	311	465	776	219	301	29	8	340	119	+14	+0	-7	-7	+14	1.4
2017	29	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	635	557	152	44	0	35	74	180	3	14	5	273	361	540	902	268	341	28	12	392	150	+38	+1	-6	-7	+14	4.1
2018	30	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	613	533	137	18	1	30	64	176	10	8	2	257	348	463	811	206	321	29	10	357	127	+19	+1	-8	-7	+13	2.0
2019	31	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	256	219	47	8	0	12	32	78	0	1	1	215	315	416	730	201	261	30	12	320	103	+1	-0	-6	-3	+6	-0.3
2019	31	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	25	21	7	1	0	2	4	5	0	0	0	333	440	667	1.107	333	357	20	16	474	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	166	147	30	5	0	9	11	43	7	0	2	204	291	422	713	218	219	26	7	316	100	-0	-1	-3	-2	+4	-0.2
2021	33	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	362	318	67	12	0	17	39	107	1	4	1	211	298	409	707	198	254	30	11	312	98	-1	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.2
2022	34	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	57	48	6	1	0	1	6	23	3	0	0	125	263	208	471	83	208	40	11	235	46	-4	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2022	34	AAA	Tacoma Rainiers	—	53	45	9	2	0	2	6	18	0	0	0	200	288	378	666	178	269	34	11	291	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7649	6721	1754	350	38	325	785	1971	78	151	59	261	345	469	814	208	319	26	10	357	128	+255	+7	-80	-88	+166	26.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	18	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	501	454	100	23	1	10	36	131	5	15	7	220	285	341	626	121	275	26	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	152	144	31	8	3	2	7	37	1	2	0	215	257	354	611	139	287	24	5	271	70	-6	+0	-2	-7	+3	-1.1
2007	19	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	306	272	76	16	4	11	24	62	5	10	7	279	349	489	838	210	313	20	8	364	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	A+ MLE	Visalia Oaks	—	150	132	39	5	2	5	13	38	3	9	4	295	372	477	849	182	356	25	9	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	417	362	89	19	6	15	48	121	4	1	4	246	341	456	796	210	332	29	12	350	123	+12	-1	-13	-5	+9	0.1
2008	20	AAA MLE	Tucson Sidewinders	—	68	63	13	2	1	2	5	34	0	2	0	206	265	365	630	159	395	50	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	588	529	158	30	7	26	52	137	2	20	5	299	364	529	893	231	360	23	9	387	148	+34	+2	+2	-6	+13	4.5
2010	22	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	571	500	132	25	2	17	59	152	4	18	8	264	346	424	770	160	354	27	10	340	116	+11	+0	-0	-6	+12	1.7
2011	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	674	601	167	36	4	31	50	126	19	21	9	278	352	506	858	228	319	19	7	373	139	+31	+1	+1	-7	+15	4.1
2012	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	628	559	151	22	3	17	58	121	5	18	8	270	344	411	756	141	327	19	9	337	114	+11	+0	-5	-7	+14	1.3
2013	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	643	562	148	26	2	29	71	161	5	8	1	263	351	472	823	208	321	25	11	362	131	+24	+1	-12	-7	+14	2.1
2014	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	641	568	153	32	2	31	59	171	6	8	4	269	344	496	841	227	332	27	9	367	134	+26	+0	-10	-7	+14	2.4
2015	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	620	548	138	28	3	25	63	159	4	19	5	252	333	451	784	199	304	26	10	345	120	+15	+2	-6	-7	+13	1.8
2016	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	626	573	143	29	2	32	47	179	4	9	4	250	311	475	786	225	301	29	8	344	119	+14	+0	-7	-7	+14	1.4
2017	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	635	560	153	46	0	34	71	180	3	14	5	273	358	537	896	264	341	28	11	391	150	+38	+1	-6	-7	+14	4.1
2018	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	613	534	137	19	1	29	63	176	10	8	2	257	346	459	805	202	321	29	10	355	127	+19	+1	-8	-7	+13	2.0
2019	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	256	219	47	8	0	12	32	78	0	1	1	215	315	416	730	201	261	30	12	320	103	+1	-0	-6	-3	+6	-0.3
2019	31	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	25	22	6	1	0	2	3	7	0	0	0	273	360	591	951	318	291	28	12	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	166	147	30	5	0	9	11	43	7	0	2	204	291	422	713	218	219	26	7	315	100	-0	-1	-3	-2	+4	-0.2
2021	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	362	319	67	12	0	17	39	107	1	4	1	210	298	408	706	197	254	30	11	312	98	-1	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.2
2022	34	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	57	48	6	1	0	1	6	23	3	0	0	125	263	208	471	83	208	40	11	236	46	-4	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.4
2022	34	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	—	53	48	7	2	0	1	4	21	0	0	0	146	212	250	462	104	230	40	8	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	18	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	501	454	100	23	1	10	36	131	5	15	7	220	285	341	626	121	282	26	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	18	A RAW	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	501	438	115	28	1	12	52	96	5	15	7	263	347	413	761	151	307	19	10	338	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	608	547	145	29	8	18	45	137	9	21	11	265	331	446	777	181	318	23	7	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	AA RAW	3 teams	—	608	525	154	31	9	20	67	116	9	21	11	293	383	501	884	208	338	19	11	386	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	485	425	102	21	7	17	53	155	4	3	4	240	330	442	772	202	332	32	11	339	116	+9	-1	-13	-5	+11	0.1
2008	20	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	485	417	106	22	7	18	61	147	4	3	4	254	355	470	825	216	345	30	13	363	116	+9	-1	-13	-5	+11	0.1
2009	21	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	588	529	158	30	7	26	52	137	2	20	5	299	364	529	893	231	357	23	9	387	148	+34	+2	+2	-6	+13	4.5
2009	21	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	588	526	158	30	7	26	55	137	2	20	5	300	369	532	901	232	360	23	9	391	148	+34	+2	+2	-6	+13	4.5
2010	22	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	571	500	132	25	2	17	59	152	4	18	8	264	346	424	770	160	340	27	10	340	116	+11	+0	-0	-6	+12	1.7
2010	22	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	571	495	135	27	3	17	64	152	4	18	8	273	361	442	803	170	354	27	11	354	116	+11	+0	-0	-6	+12	1.7
2011	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	674	601	167	36	4	31	50	126	19	21	9	278	352	506	858	228	304	19	7	373	139	+31	+1	+1	-7	+15	4.1
2011	23	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	674	592	171	39	5	31	59	126	19	21	9	289	372	529	900	240	319	19	9	393	139	+31	+1	+1	-7	+15	4.1
2012	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	628	559	151	22	3	17	58	121	5	18	8	270	344	411	756	141	314	19	9	337	114	+11	+0	-5	-7	+14	1.3
2012	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	628	554	155	24	4	17	63	121	5	18	8	280	359	430	788	150	327	19	10	350	114	+11	+0	-5	-7	+14	1.3
2013	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	643	562	148	26	2	29	71	161	5	8	1	263	351	472	823	208	316	25	11	362	131	+24	+1	-12	-7	+14	2.1
2013	25	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	643	558	147	27	2	27	75	161	5	8	1	263	356	464	820	201	321	25	12	361	131	+24	+1	-12	-7	+14	2.1
2014	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	641	568	153	32	2	31	59	171	6	8	4	269	344	496	841	227	326	27	9	367	134	+26	+0	-10	-7	+14	2.4
2014	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	641	566	153	34	2	29	60	171	6	8	4	270	346	491	837	221	332	27	9	364	134	+26	+0	-10	-7	+14	2.4
2015	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	620	548	138	28	3	25	63	159	4	19	5	252	333	451	784	199	306	26	10	345	120	+15	+2	-6	-7	+13	1.8
2015	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	620	542	136	26	3	26	68	159	4	19	5	251	338	454	792	203	304	26	11	348	120	+15	+2	-6	-7	+13	1.8
2016	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	626	573	143	29	2	32	47	179	4	9	4	250	311	475	786	225	305	29	8	344	119	+14	+0	-7	-7	+14	1.4
2016	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	—	626	570	140	28	2	31	50	179	4	9	4	246	311	465	776	219	301	29	8	340	119	+14	+0	-7	-7	+14	1.4
2017	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	635	560	153	46	0	34	71	180	3	14	5	273	358	537	896	264	343	28	11	391	150	+38	+1	-6	-7	+14	4.1
2017	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	635	557	152	44	0	35	74	180	3	14	5	273	361	540	902	268	341	28	12	392	150	+38	+1	-6	-7	+14	4.1
2018	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	613	534	137	19	1	29	63	176	10	8	2	257	346	459	805	202	322	29	10	355	127	+19	+1	-8	-7	+13	2.0
2018	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	613	533	137	18	1	30	64	176	10	8	2	257	348	463	811	206	321	29	10	357	127	+19	+1	-8	-7	+13	2.0
2019	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	281	241	53	9	0	14	35	85	0	1	1	220	319	432	750	212	265	30	12	325	106	+2	-0	-6	-3	+6	-0.1
2019	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	281	240	54	9	0	14	36	83	0	1	1	225	326	438	764	212	270	30	13	334	106	+2	-0	-6	-3	+6	-0.1
2020	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	166	147	30	5	0	9	11	43	7	0	2	204	291	422	713	218	219	26	7	315	100	-0	-1	-3	-2	+4	-0.2
2020	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	166	147	30	5	0	9	11	43	7	0	2	204	291	422	713	218	219	26	7	316	100	-0	-1	-3	-2	+4	-0.2
2021	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	362	319	67	12	0	17	39	107	1	4	1	210	298	408	706	197	253	30	11	312	98	-1	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.2
2021	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	362	318	67	12	0	17	39	107	1	4	1	211	298	409	707	198	254	30	11	312	98	-1	+0	-5	-4	+8	-0.2
2022	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	110	96	14	3	0	2	10	44	3	0	0	146	248	240	487	94	235	40	9	227	40	-8	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.7
2022	34	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	110	93	15	3	0	3	12	41	3	0	0	161	275	290	566	129	240	37	11	262	40	-8	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.7
2006	18	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	501	455	100	23	1	10	36	131	5	15	7	220	285	341	626	121	275	26	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	19	AA MLE	3 teams	—	608	549	145	29	8	18	45	137	9	21	11	264	331	444	776	180	317	23	7	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	20	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	485	425	102	21	7	17	53	155	4	3	4	240	330	442	772	202	341	32	11	339	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	588	529	158	30	7	26	52	137	2	20	5	299	364	529	893	231	360	23	9	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	571	503	132	25	2	17	59	152	4	18	8	262	346	421	768	159	354	27	10	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	674	600	167	36	4	31	50	126	19	21	9	278	352	507	859	228	319	19	7	373	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	628	560	151	22	3	17	58	121	5	18	8	270	344	411	755	141	327	19	9	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	643	562	148	26	2	29	71	161	5	8	1	263	351	472	823	208	321	25	11	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	641	571	153	32	2	31	59	171	6	8	4	268	344	494	838	226	332	27	9	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	620	548	138	28	3	25	63	159	4	19	5	252	333	451	784	199	304	26	10	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	626	570	143	29	2	32	47	179	4	9	4	251	311	477	788	226	301	29	8	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	635	556	153	46	0	34	71	180	3	14	5	275	358	541	899	266	341	28	11	391	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	613	535	137	19	1	29	63	176	10	8	2	256	346	458	804	202	321	29	10	355	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	281	244	53	9	0	14	35	85	0	1	1	217	319	426	745	209	264	30	12	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	166	147	30	5	0	9	11	43	7	0	2	204	291	422	713	218	219	26	7	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	362	319	67	12	0	17	39	107	1	4	1	210	298	408	706	197	254	30	11	312	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	110	96	14	3	0	2	10	44	3	0	0	146	248	240	487	94	219	40	9	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7649	6721	1754	350	38	325	785	1971	78	151	59	261	345	469	814	208	319	26	10	357	121	+255	+7	-80	-88	+166	26.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	149	30	3	28	67	167	7	13	5	261	346	471	817	210	318	26	10	357	121	+22	+1	-7	-8	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8752	7763	1991	395	42	358	822	2264	91	187	77	256	335	457	791	200	313	26	9	347	121	+255	+7	-80	-88	+166	26.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	148	29	3	27	61	168	7	14	6	256	335	458	792	201	313	26	9	347	121	+22	+1	-7	-8	+14	2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAATacoma Rainiers · 53 PAwOBA .289 → .218 (−71)K% 34.0% → 40.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.96%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	39.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.32%	÷1.048	×0.690	—	×0.940	7.01%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.52%	÷1.013	×0.930	—	×0.940	15.98%
Doubles /BIP	7.41%	÷0.839	×0.830	—	×0.940	6.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.902	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.41%	÷1.144	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.26%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 103, 2B 68, 3B 80, K 104, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .289 → .218; ISO .178 → .123; BABIP .269 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 25 PAwOBA .461 → .371 (−90)K% 20.0% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.997	×1.340	—	—	26.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.00%	÷0.968	×0.710	—	×0.940	11.03%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.024	×0.910	—	×0.940	20.89%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷0.985	×0.820	—	×0.940	4.89%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.760	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.50%	÷0.939	×0.920	—	×0.940	11.52%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 105, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (9.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .461 → .371; ISO .333 → .291; BABIP .357 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAATucson Sidewinders · 68 PAwOBA .367 → .271 (−96)K% 38.2% → 49.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.24%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	49.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.29%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.67%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.000	×0.900	—	×1.050	27.00%
Doubles /BIP	8.57%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.050	7.29%
Triples /BIP	2.86%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.050	2.43%
Home runs /BIP	8.57%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	7.02%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .367 → .271; ISO .230 → .159; BABIP .438 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AAMobile BayBears · 306 PAwOBA .406 → .364 (−42)K% 16.7% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.93%
HBP% /PA	1.63%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.44%
Singles /BIP	22.12%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.980	×1.050	20.94%
Doubles /BIP	8.17%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.980	×1.050	7.66%
Triples /BIP	1.92%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.980	×1.050	1.74%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	5.25%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .406 → .364; ISO .247 → .223; BABIP .335 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 A+Visalia Oaks · 150 PAwOBA .419 → .358 (−61)K% 18.7% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.67%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	25.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.00%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.042	8.88%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	1.65%
Singles /BIP	30.61%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.964	×1.042	27.98%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.964	×1.042	5.04%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷1.000	×0.760	×0.964	×1.042	1.56%
Home runs /BIP	5.10%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.042	4.89%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .419 → .358; ISO .198 → .175; BABIP .400 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2006 ASouth Bend Silver Hawks · 501 PAwOBA .331 → .274 (−57)K% 19.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.16%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	26.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.78%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	7.05%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.81%
Singles /BIP	21.64%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.963	×1.045	20.04%
Doubles /BIP	8.19%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.963	×1.045	6.84%
Triples /BIP	0.29%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.963	×1.045	0.27%
Home runs /BIP	3.51%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	2.93%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .331 → .274; ISO .151 → .122; BABIP .307 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).