Anthony Rizzo

Pos1B

B/TL/L

Born1989-08-08

Age (2027)37

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2022	32	MLBNYY	548	.224/.339/.480	32	6	120	0.8
2023	33	MLBNYY	421	.244/.329/.378	12	0	100	0.2
2024	34	MLBNYY	375	.228/.303/.335	8	0	81	-1.0
2025	35	No MLB games played
2026	36	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022-2024

xwOBA67

Barrel%47

Avg EV46

Bat Spd24

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2007	17	ROK	GCL Red Sox	—	24	21	6	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	286	375	429	804	143	278	8	4	366	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A	Greenville Drive	—	87	83	31	6	0	0	3	15	1	0	0	373	402	446	848	72	456	17	3	381	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	229	200	59	16	0	3	25	39	1	2	0	295	376	420	796	125	348	17	11	354	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A	Greenville Drive	—	275	245	73	21	0	9	25	60	2	2	1	298	366	494	860	196	360	22	9	376	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	467	414	109	30	0	20	45	100	2	7	1	263	338	481	819	217	297	21	10	356	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	135	117	29	12	0	5	16	32	0	3	0	248	338	479	817	231	293	24	12	354	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	153	128	18	8	1	1	21	46	4	2	1	141	281	242	523	102	210	30	14	254	58	-8	+0	-1	-11	+3	-1.7
2011	21	AAA	Tucson Padres	—	413	356	118	34	1	26	43	89	6	7	6	331	412	652	1.064	320	369	22	10	449	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	INTL	Toros del Este	—	24	21	7	1	0	1	3	6	0	0	0	333	417	524	940	190	429	25	12	416	168	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	368	337	96	15	0	15	27	62	3	3	2	285	343	463	806	178	310	17	7	357	127	+12	-0	-2	-12	+8	0.6
2012	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	284	257	88	18	2	23	23	52	4	2	2	342	405	696	1.101	354	357	18	8	472	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	690	606	141	40	2	23	76	127	6	6	5	233	324	419	743	186	258	18	11	331	105	+4	-1	-5	-12	+15	0.1
2014	24	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	616	524	150	28	1	32	73	116	15	5	4	286	389	527	916	240	311	19	12	400	153	+39	-1	-7	-11	+13	3.4
2015	25	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	701	586	163	38	3	31	78	105	30	17	6	278	390	512	902	234	289	15	11	395	148	+40	+1	-11	-13	+15	3.3
2016	26	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	676	583	170	43	4	32	74	108	16	3	5	292	386	544	930	252	309	16	11	405	155	+44	-1	-5	-12	+15	4.1
2017	27	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	691	572	156	32	3	32	91	90	24	10	4	273	394	507	901	234	273	13	13	397	148	+39	+0	-2	-12	+15	4.2
2018	28	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	665	566	160	29	1	25	70	80	20	6	4	283	381	470	851	187	287	12	11	375	130	+24	-0	-1	-12	+14	2.5
2019	29	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	613	512	150	29	3	27	71	86	27	5	2	293	407	520	926	227	306	14	12	408	160	+44	+0	-5	-11	+13	4.3
2020	30	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	243	203	45	6	0	11	28	38	10	3	1	222	344	414	758	192	218	16	12	341	111	+3	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.4
2021	31	MLB	New York Yankees	—	576	496	123	23	3	22	52	87	23	6	2	248	347	440	786	192	258	15	9	349	118	+12	+0	-2	-10	+12	1.3
2022	32	MLB	New York Yankees	—	548	465	104	21	1	32	58	101	23	6	5	224	339	480	818	256	216	18	11	361	120	+13	-1	-7	-10	+12	0.8
2023	33	MLB	New York Yankees	—	421	373	91	14	0	12	35	97	12	0	3	244	329	378	707	134	298	23	8	321	100	-0	-1	+2	-8	+9	0.2
2024	34	MLB	New York Yankees	—	375	337	77	12	0	8	27	65	9	0	0	228	303	335	638	107	259	17	7	291	81	-8	+0	-3	-7	+8	-1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	7336	6288	1644	338	22	303	781	1208	222	72	44	261	363	467	830	205	278	16	11	367	135	+304	-3	-48	-144	+159	27.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2007	17	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	24	21	5	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	238	333	381	714	143	230	12	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	87	84	29	5	0	0	2	20	1	0	0	345	368	405	773	60	451	23	2	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	229	212	54	13	0	3	13	55	1	2	0	255	301	358	659	104	318	24	6	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	275	254	60	16	0	7	17	80	2	2	1	236	289	382	671	146	310	29	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	467	429	98	24	0	15	30	122	2	7	1	228	282	389	671	161	272	26	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	135	124	23	9	0	4	9	50	0	3	0	185	241	355	595	169	271	37	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	153	129	19	9	1	1	20	46	4	2	1	147	281	256	537	109	210	30	13	254	58	-8	+0	-1	-11	+3	-1.7
2011	21	AAA MLE	Tucson Padres	—	413	371	98	27	1	21	28	123	6	7	6	264	326	512	838	248	313	30	7	358	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	368	338	97	15	0	16	26	62	3	3	2	287	343	473	817	186	310	17	7	356	127	+12	-0	-2	-12	+8	0.6
2012	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	284	263	77	14	2	21	17	67	4	2	2	293	345	601	946	308	319	24	6	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	690	613	141	39	2	24	69	127	6	6	5	230	314	418	732	188	258	18	10	324	105	+4	-1	-5	-12	+15	0.1
2014	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	616	531	150	27	1	33	66	116	15	5	4	282	377	524	901	241	311	19	11	394	153	+39	-1	-7	-11	+13	3.4
2015	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	701	595	163	37	3	32	69	105	30	17	6	274	378	508	885	234	289	15	10	387	148	+40	+1	-11	-13	+15	3.3
2016	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	676	591	169	42	3	33	66	108	16	3	5	286	373	535	908	249	309	16	10	397	155	+44	-1	-5	-12	+15	4.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	691	583	156	31	3	33	80	90	24	10	4	268	378	501	879	233	273	13	12	387	148	+39	+0	-2	-12	+15	4.2
2018	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	665	581	160	28	1	26	55	80	20	6	4	275	358	461	820	186	287	12	8	360	130	+24	-0	-1	-12	+14	2.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	613	515	150	28	3	28	68	86	27	5	2	291	402	520	922	229	306	14	11	405	160	+44	+0	-5	-11	+13	4.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	243	207	45	6	0	11	24	38	10	3	1	217	328	406	734	188	218	16	10	332	111	+3	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.4
2021	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	576	498	122	23	3	21	50	87	23	6	2	245	342	430	771	185	258	15	9	342	118	+12	+0	-2	-10	+12	1.3
2022	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	548	471	102	21	1	30	52	101	23	6	5	217	324	456	781	240	216	18	9	346	120	+13	-1	-7	-10	+12	0.8
2023	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	421	374	90	14	0	11	34	97	12	0	3	241	324	366	690	126	298	23	8	316	100	-0	-1	+2	-8	+9	0.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	375	337	76	12	0	7	27	65	9	0	0	226	300	323	624	98	259	17	7	289	81	-8	+0	-3	-7	+8	-1.0
2007	17	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	24	21	5	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	238	333	381	714	143	235	12	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	17	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	—	24	21	6	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	286	375	429	804	143	278	8	4	366	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	87	84	29	5	0	0	2	20	1	0	0	345	368	405	773	60	453	23	2	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	87	83	31	6	0	0	3	15	1	0	0	373	402	446	848	72	456	17	3	381	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	504	466	113	29	0	10	30	136	3	4	1	242	293	369	662	127	317	27	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	504	445	132	37	0	12	50	99	3	4	1	297	371	461	831	164	354	20	10	366	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	602	552	121	33	0	19	40	172	2	10	1	219	274	382	657	163	276	29	7	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	602	531	138	42	0	25	61	132	2	10	1	260	338	480	819	220	296	22	10	356	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	590	521	121	37	2	23	51	176	10	9	7	232	313	443	756	211	297	30	9	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	590	505	143	43	2	28	67	141	10	9	7	283	378	543	921	259	334	24	11	397	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	652	601	174	29	2	37	43	129	7	5	4	290	344	529	873	240	314	20	7	374	139	+30	-1	-2	-12	+14	3.1
2012	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	652	594	184	33	2	38	50	114	7	5	4	310	370	564	934	254	330	17	8	407	139	+30	-1	-2	-12	+14	3.1
2013	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	690	613	141	39	2	24	69	127	6	6	5	230	314	418	732	188	252	18	10	324	105	+4	-1	-5	-12	+15	0.1
2013	23	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	690	606	141	40	2	23	76	127	6	6	5	233	324	419	743	186	258	18	11	331	105	+4	-1	-5	-12	+15	0.1
2014	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	616	531	150	27	1	33	66	116	15	5	4	282	377	524	901	241	303	19	11	394	153	+39	-1	-7	-11	+13	3.4
2014	24	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	616	524	150	28	1	32	73	116	15	5	4	286	389	527	916	240	311	19	12	400	153	+39	-1	-7	-11	+13	3.4
2015	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	701	595	163	37	3	32	69	105	30	17	6	274	378	508	885	234	282	15	10	387	148	+40	+1	-11	-13	+15	3.3
2015	25	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	701	586	163	38	3	31	78	105	30	17	6	278	390	512	902	234	289	15	11	395	148	+40	+1	-11	-13	+15	3.3
2016	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	676	591	169	42	3	33	66	108	16	3	5	286	373	535	908	249	300	16	10	397	155	+44	-1	-5	-12	+15	4.1
2016	26	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	676	583	170	43	4	32	74	108	16	3	5	292	386	544	930	252	309	16	11	405	155	+44	-1	-5	-12	+15	4.1
2017	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	691	583	156	31	3	33	80	90	24	10	4	268	378	501	879	233	265	13	12	387	148	+39	+0	-2	-12	+15	4.2
2017	27	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	691	572	156	32	3	32	91	90	24	10	4	273	394	507	901	234	273	13	13	397	148	+39	+0	-2	-12	+15	4.2
2018	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	665	581	160	28	1	26	55	80	20	6	4	275	358	461	820	186	277	12	8	360	130	+24	-0	-1	-12	+14	2.5
2018	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	665	566	160	29	1	25	70	80	20	6	4	283	381	470	851	187	287	12	11	375	130	+24	-0	-1	-12	+14	2.5
2019	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	613	515	150	28	3	28	68	86	27	5	2	291	402	520	922	229	302	14	11	405	160	+44	+0	-5	-11	+13	4.3
2019	29	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	613	512	150	29	3	27	71	86	27	5	2	293	407	520	926	227	306	14	12	408	160	+44	+0	-5	-11	+13	4.3
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	243	207	45	6	0	11	24	38	10	3	1	217	328	406	734	188	212	16	10	332	111	+3	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.4
2020	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	243	203	45	6	0	11	28	38	10	3	1	222	344	414	758	192	218	16	12	341	111	+3	+0	-0	-4	+5	0.4
2021	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	576	498	122	23	3	21	50	87	23	6	2	245	342	430	771	185	256	15	9	342	118	+12	+0	-2	-10	+12	1.3
2021	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	576	496	123	23	3	22	52	87	23	6	2	248	347	440	786	192	258	15	9	349	118	+12	+0	-2	-10	+12	1.3
2022	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	548	471	102	21	1	30	52	101	23	6	5	217	324	456	781	240	211	18	9	346	120	+13	-1	-7	-10	+12	0.8
2022	32	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	548	465	104	21	1	32	58	101	23	6	5	224	339	480	818	256	216	18	11	361	120	+13	-1	-7	-10	+12	0.8
2023	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	421	374	90	14	0	11	34	97	12	0	3	241	324	366	690	126	296	23	8	316	100	-0	-1	+2	-8	+9	0.2
2023	33	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	421	373	91	14	0	12	35	97	12	0	3	244	329	378	707	134	298	23	8	321	100	-0	-1	+2	-8	+9	0.2
2024	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	375	337	76	12	0	7	27	65	9	0	0	226	300	323	624	98	258	17	7	289	81	-8	+0	-3	-7	+8	-1.0
2024	34	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	375	337	77	12	0	8	27	65	9	0	0	228	303	335	638	107	259	17	7	291	81	-8	+0	-3	-7	+8	-1.0
2007	17	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	—	24	21	5	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	238	333	381	714	143	230	12	4	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	18	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	87	84	29	5	0	0	2	20	1	0	0	345	368	405	773	60	451	23	2	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	504	466	113	29	0	10	30	136	3	4	1	242	293	369	662	127	314	27	6	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	602	555	121	33	0	19	40	172	2	10	1	218	274	380	655	162	272	29	7	287	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	590	524	121	37	2	23	51	176	10	9	7	231	313	441	754	210	285	30	9	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	652	597	174	29	2	37	43	129	7	5	4	291	344	533	877	241	314	20	7	374	139	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	690	610	141	39	2	24	69	127	6	6	5	231	314	420	734	189	258	18	10	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	24	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	616	530	150	27	1	33	66	116	15	5	4	283	377	525	902	242	311	19	11	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	25	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	701	596	163	37	3	32	69	105	30	17	6	273	378	507	884	233	289	15	10	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	26	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	676	589	169	42	3	33	66	108	16	3	5	287	373	537	909	250	309	16	10	397	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	27	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	691	582	156	31	3	33	80	90	24	10	4	268	378	502	880	234	273	13	12	387	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	665	585	160	28	1	26	55	80	20	6	4	274	358	458	816	185	287	12	8	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	29	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	613	513	150	28	3	28	68	86	27	5	2	292	402	522	924	230	306	14	11	405	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	243	207	45	6	0	11	24	38	10	3	1	217	328	406	734	188	218	16	10	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	576	498	122	23	3	21	50	87	23	6	2	245	342	430	771	185	258	15	9	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	32	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	548	468	102	21	1	30	52	101	23	6	5	218	324	459	784	241	216	18	9	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	33	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	421	372	90	14	0	11	34	97	12	0	3	242	324	368	692	126	298	23	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	375	336	76	12	0	7	27	65	9	0	0	226	300	324	625	98	259	17	7	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	34	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	375	336	76	12	0	7	27	65	9	0	0	226	300	324	625	98	259	17	7	289	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	7336	6288	1644	338	22	303	781	1208	222	72	44	261	363	467	830	205	278	16	11	367	124	+304	-3	-48	-144	+159	27.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	557	146	30	2	27	69	107	20	6	4	262	364	469	832	206	279	16	11	367	124	+27	-0	-4	-13	+14	2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	9274	8141	2087	441	24	379	827	1736	240	95	54	256	343	456	799	200	280	19	9	352	124	+304	-3	-48	-144	+159	27.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	571	147	31	2	27	58	122	17	7	4	257	344	461	805	203	281	19	9	352	124	+27	-0	-4	-13	+14	2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2012 AAAIowa Cubs · 284 PAwOBA .456 → .397 (−59)K% 18.3% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.31%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	23.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.39%	÷0.938	×0.710	—	×1.050	5.88%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.45%
Singles /BIP	21.95%	÷1.028	×0.900	×1.012	×1.050	20.43%
Doubles /BIP	8.78%	÷1.049	×0.810	×1.012	×1.050	7.20%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷0.953	×0.810	×1.012	×1.050	0.88%
Home runs /BIP	11.22%	÷0.863	×0.780	—	×1.050	10.65%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 91, K 101, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .456 → .397; ISO .354 → .313; BABIP .357 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAATucson Padres · 413 PAwOBA .442 → .358 (−84)K% 21.5% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.55%	÷0.935	×1.290	—	—	29.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.20%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.88%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.49%
Singles /BIP	21.35%	÷1.022	×0.900	×0.961	×1.050	18.97%
Doubles /BIP	12.73%	÷1.001	×0.810	×0.961	×1.050	10.40%
Triples /BIP	0.37%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.961	×1.050	0.31%
Home runs /BIP	9.74%	÷0.968	×0.780	—	×1.050	8.24%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 100, 3B 100, K 87, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .442 → .358; ISO .320 → .256; BABIP .369 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 467 PAwOBA .349 → .292 (−57)K% 21.4% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.41%	÷1.001	×1.220	—	—	26.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.99%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.55%
HBP% /PA	0.43%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.38%
Singles /BIP	18.79%	÷0.989	×0.970	×0.969	×1.050	18.77%
Doubles /BIP	9.55%	÷1.093	×0.860	×0.969	×1.050	7.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.969	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.37%	÷1.095	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.77%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .349 → .292; ISO .217 → .166; BABIP .297 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 A+Salem Red Sox · 135 PAwOBA .345 → .271 (−74)K% 23.7% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.70%	÷0.908	×1.420	—	—	37.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.37%	÷0.968	×0.630	—	×1.027	6.93%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.860	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	14.12%	÷0.999	×0.940	×1.014	×1.027	13.83%
Doubles /BIP	14.12%	÷0.974	×0.830	×1.014	×1.027	12.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.800	×1.014	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.024	×0.900	—	×1.027	5.31%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 106, K 82, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .345 → .271; ISO .231 → .184; BABIP .293 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AGreenville Drive · 275 PAwOBA .369 → .292 (−77)K% 21.8% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.82%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	29.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.09%	÷1.000	×0.660	—	×1.030	6.18%
HBP% /PA	0.73%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	0.58%
Singles /BIP	23.24%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.030	20.92%
Doubles /BIP	11.35%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.950	×1.030	9.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.950	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.86%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.030	4.11%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .369 → .292; ISO .196 → .154; BABIP .360 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 A+Salem Red Sox · 229 PAwOBA .342 → .294 (−49)K% 17.0% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.03%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	24.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.73%	÷1.000	×0.630	—	×1.042	5.73%
HBP% /PA	0.44%	—	×0.860	—	×1.042	0.39%
Singles /BIP	24.84%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.967	×1.042	23.54%
Doubles /BIP	9.94%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.967	×1.042	8.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	×0.967	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.86%	÷1.000	×0.900	—	×1.042	1.75%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .342 → .294; ISO .125 → .108; BABIP .348 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AGreenville Drive · 87 PAwOBA .371 → .336 (−35)K% 17.2% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.24%	÷1.000	×1.340	—	—	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.660	—	×1.045	2.38%
HBP% /PA	1.15%	—	×0.770	—	×1.045	0.92%
Singles /BIP	36.76%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×1.045	37.11%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.050	×1.045	7.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.050	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.045	0.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .371 → .336; ISO .072 → .061; BABIP .456 → .451. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 ROKGCL Red Sox · 24 PAwOBA .356 → .283 (−73)K% 8.3% → 12.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.33%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	12.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.17%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	2.64%
HBP% /PA	8.33%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	6.13%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.022	22.06%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	4.20%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .283; ISO .143 → .114; BABIP .278 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .