Tink Hence — OGILVIE

Tink Hence P Memphis Redbirds

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.4 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.94

FIP3.94

K%26.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%17.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL5050

CMD4550

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.5	$10M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$9M	+$3M
2031	Arb-3	$12M	+1.4	$8M	+$0.3M
Totals		$29M		$37M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	12%	1.0	34.1%	7.3%	26.8%	2.4%	9.00	2.48	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	12%	1.0	34.1%	7.3%	26.8%	2.4%	9.00	2.35	—
2022	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	100%	3.3	30.7%	9.1%	21.7%	0.8%	1.38	2.07	—
2022	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	100%	3.3	41.5%	7.7%	33.8%	0.5%	1.38	1.11	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.31	4.48	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.31	4.48	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	24.5%	8.4%	16.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.73	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	34.1%	8.1%	25.9%	1.6%	2.71	2.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.29	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	16.8%	16.4%	0.4%	4.4%	6.64	6.20	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	16.8%	16.4%	0.4%	4.4%	6.64	6.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	STL	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	20.2%	18.2%	2.0%	4.0%	6.64	5.91	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	26.4%	9.2%	17.1%	2.8%	3.94	3.94	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	26	124	27	20	5	—	—	21.4%	16.4%	5.0%	3.8%	6.04	5.69	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	118	499	132	44	14	100%	5.6	26.5%	8.8%	17.7%	2.8%	3.91	3.87	+1.5
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	138	581	154	50	16	100%	5.7	26.5%	8.6%	18.0%	2.8%	3.88	3.84	+1.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	150	632	168	54	18	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.5%	18.0%	2.8%	3.86	3.84	+1.9
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	25	25	148	623	164	53	18	100%	5.9	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	2.8%	3.88	3.89	+1.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	24	24	143	604	159	53	18	100%	6.0	26.3%	8.7%	17.6%	2.9%	3.93	3.97	+1.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	23	23	137	577	150	52	18	100%	5.9	26.0%	8.9%	17.1%	3.1%	4.03	4.10	+1.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	21	21	128	543	139	50	18	100%	6.1	25.7%	9.2%	16.4%	3.3%	4.18	4.28	+0.9
2034	31	MLB MLE	STL	20	20	120	506	128	48	18	100%	6.0	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.5%	4.36	4.48	+0.6
2035	32	MLB MLE	STL	18	18	111	468	116	47	18	100%	6.2	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.8%	4.57	4.71	+0.2
2036	33	MLB MLE	STL	17	17	102	429	104	45	17	100%	6.0	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	4.0%	4.80	4.96	-0.1
2037	34	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	92	391	93	43	17	100%	6.2	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	4.3%	5.06	5.23	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	57	241	64	21	6	100%	5.7	26.5%	8.8%	17.7%	2.6%	3.80	3.76	+0.7
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	95	401	106	34	10	100%	5.9	26.5%	8.6%	18.0%	2.6%	3.77	3.73	+1.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	121	511	135	43	13	100%	6.0	26.5%	8.5%	18.0%	2.6%	3.75	3.73	+1.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	127	536	142	46	14	100%	6.0	26.4%	8.6%	17.8%	2.6%	3.77	3.78	+1.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	128	540	142	47	15	100%	6.1	26.3%	8.7%	17.6%	2.7%	3.82	3.86	+1.4
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	21	21	125	528	137	47	15	100%	6.0	26.0%	8.9%	17.1%	2.9%	3.91	3.98	+1.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	20	20	119	502	129	46	15	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.2%	16.4%	3.0%	4.05	4.15	+0.9
2034	31	MLB CTX	STL	19	19	112	473	120	45	15	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	3.3%	4.23	4.35	+0.5
2035	32	MLB CTX	STL	18	18	105	443	110	44	15	100%	5.8	24.8%	10.0%	14.8%	3.5%	4.43	4.57	+0.2
2036	33	MLB CTX	STL	16	16	97	410	100	43	15	100%	6.1	24.3%	10.4%	13.9%	3.7%	4.65	4.81	-0.1
2037	34	MLB CTX	STL	14	14	84	355	84	39	14	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.9%	12.8%	4.0%	4.89	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		197	196	1171	4942	1270	457	149	99%	5.9	25.7%	9.2%	16.5%	3.0%	4.07	3.76	+16.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	78	25	100%	6.0	25.7%	9.2%	16.5%	3.0%	4.07	3.76	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		94	71	278	1145	281	117	26	76%	3.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.2%	3.50	3.55	+11.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	51	200	825	203	84	18	76%	3.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.2%	3.50	3.55	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tink Hence (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	26.4%	9.2%	2.8%	—	3.85	26.5%	17.9%	406	-0.09	—	—	—
Vince Velasquez R 2015 · 3.26 FIP	23	SW	3.26	26.2%	9.8%	2.1%	.290	3.87	25.5%	16.5%	350	+0.61	3.26	959	81
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	79
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	77
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	77
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	76
Tyler Guilfoil R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	23	SP-	3.18	26.0%	12.3%	1.3%	.305	5.52	17.8%	4.4%	190	+2.34	3.18	274	76
J.C. Flowers R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SP-	3.59	21.3%	8.7%	2.1%	.330	4.86	16.2%	2.6%	184	+1.27	3.59	281	75
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	75
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	75
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	74
Landen Roupp R 2022 · 3.02 FIP	23	SP-	3.02	26.9%	9.8%	1.7%	.274	3.43	23.1%	12.9%	209	+0.41	2.36	467	73
Walker Buehler R 2017 · 2.76 FIP	23	SP-	2.76	28.6%	9.4%	1.6%	.311	2.83	28.5%	22.5%	369	+0.07	2.67	1,103	73
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	73
Yosver Zulueta R 2022 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP-	3.19	27.1%	14.0%	1.1%	.299	3.64	23.5%	11.2%	195	+0.45	3.19	286	73
Tylor Megill R 2019 · 3.02 FIP	24	SW	3.02	22.2%	10.4%	0.9%	.331	3.91	26.8%	19.7%	177	+0.89	3.02	603	73
Austin Bergner R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	24	SW	4.99	24.0%	10.9%	4.6%	.277	4.88	21.5%	9.9%	274	-0.11	4.06	464	73
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	73
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	72
Michael Baird R 2019 · 2.84 FIP	24	SP-	2.84	21.2%	8.3%	0.9%	.273	6.16	21.6%	13.1%	94	+3.32	2.84	132	72
Christian Scott R 2022 · 3.05 FIP	23	SP-	3.05	22.1%	9.8%	1.1%	.369	3.66	24.5%	19.2%	175	+0.61	2.56	347	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.4	123	25.8%	9.2%	1.23	4.16
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68