Tink Hence

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP40OGV rank#386ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	AASTL	20	20	80	2.71	2.16	34.1%	8.1%	—	K 27.6% · BB 8.9% · FIP 2.64
2025	22	MIX4 levels	8	8	21	2.95	3.29	27.9%	15.1%	—	K 27.9% · BB 15.1% · FIP 3.30
2026	23	AAASTL	19	3	20	6.64	6.35	20.2%	18.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 16.4% · FIP 6.15
2027PROJ	24	MLBSTL	2	2	9	4.99	4.99	21.7%	12.8%	0.0
2028PROJ48% MLB	25	MLBSTL	7	7	43	4.68	4.60	22.7%	11.5%	0.3
2029PROJ69% MLB	26	MLBSTL	11	11	64	4.56	4.51	23.3%	11.2%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$1M2032Ext$2M2033Ext$1M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.8 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Tanner Hall (age 22) · Tanner Burns (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.99

FIP4.99

K%21.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%8.9%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$1M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	12%	1.0	34.1%	7.3%	26.8%	2.4%	9.00	2.48	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	12%	1.0	34.1%	7.3%	26.8%	2.4%	9.00	2.35	—
2022	19	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	100%	3.3	30.7%	9.1%	21.7%	0.8%	1.38	2.07	—
2022	19	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	100%	3.3	41.5%	7.7%	33.8%	0.5%	1.38	1.11	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	19.4%	9.4%	10.0%	3.3%	4.31	4.48	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	100%	4.2	24.5%	8.4%	16.1%	3.0%	4.31	3.73	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	27.6%	8.9%	18.7%	1.4%	2.71	2.64	—
2024	21	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	100%	4.0	34.1%	8.1%	25.9%	1.6%	2.71	2.16	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.30	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	100%	2.7	27.9%	15.1%	12.8%	1.2%	2.95	3.29	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	17.4%	16.4%	1.0%	4.4%	6.64	6.15	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	17.4%	16.4%	1.0%	4.4%	6.64	6.15	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	19	3	20	99	20	18	4	16%	1.1	20.2%	18.2%	2.0%	4.0%	6.64	6.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	STL	2	2	9	38	8	5	1	100%	4.5	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.99	4.99	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	90	380	86	44	12	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	3.1%	4.80	4.72	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	92	389	91	43	12	100%	6.1	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	3.1%	4.68	4.63	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	15	15	88	370	86	41	12	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	+0.8
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	14	14	83	350	81	39	11	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	3.2%	4.69	4.72	+0.7
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	13	13	77	325	74	37	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	3.4%	4.79	4.85	+0.5
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	12	12	70	294	66	34	11	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.03	+0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	7	7	43	182	41	21	5	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.5%	11.2%	2.9%	4.68	4.60	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	64	270	63	30	8	100%	5.8	23.3%	11.2%	12.1%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	69	291	68	32	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	11.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.53	4.53	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	12	12	71	300	69	33	9	100%	5.9	23.0%	11.1%	11.9%	3.0%	4.57	4.60	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	11	11	68	287	65	33	9	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.3%	11.4%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	10	10	63	266	60	31	9	100%	6.3	22.4%	11.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.79	4.89	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	63	378	1597	366	180	49	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.26	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	194	95	26	100%	6.0	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.63	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		94	71	278	1145	282	117	26	76%	3.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.2%	3.50	3.54	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	51	200	825	203	84	18	76%	3.0	24.6%	10.2%	14.4%	2.2%	3.50	3.54	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 20 IPFIP 5.91 → 6.15 (+0.23)K% 20.2% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.20%	—	×0.860	17.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	4.04%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.44%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.91 → 6.15, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASpringfield Cardinals · 11 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.23 (+0.83)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.105	×1.200	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 6 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.89 (+1.02)K% 33.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.740	24.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.180	14.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.973	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AASpringfield Cardinals · 80 IPFIP 2.11 → 2.64 (+0.53)K% 34.1% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.06%	—	×0.810	27.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.12%	—	×1.100	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.386	×1.200	1.35%

Result: FIP 2.11 → 2.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASpringfield Cardinals · 54 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.91 (+0.68)K% 22.2% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.18%	—	×0.810	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.21%	—	×1.100	10.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.35%	÷1.080	×1.200	3.72%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Peoria Chiefs · 42 IPFIP 3.00 → 3.87 (+0.87)K% 27.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.88%	—	×0.770	21.47%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.150	8.36%
HR / BF /BF	2.42%	÷1.093	×1.250	2.77%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 119).

Result: FIP 3.00 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 APalm Beach Cardinals · 52 IPFIP 0.85 → 2.07 (+1.22)K% 41.5% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.54%	—	×0.740	30.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.69%	—	×1.180	9.08%
HR / BF /BF	0.51%	÷0.880	×1.300	0.76%

Result: FIP 0.85 → 2.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Cardinals · 8 IPFIP 2.48 → 4.17 (+1.69)K% 34.1% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.680	23.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.250	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.000	×1.400	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.48 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tink Hence (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.67	23.0%	11.8%	270	-0.32	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	81
Tanner Burns R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	24	SW	5.27	19.4%	12.5%	4.0%	.257	4.95	18.3%	5.2%	131	-0.32	4.34	382	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	80
Logan Evans R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.8%	10.3%	2.3%	.257	4.17	17.9%	10.2%	125	+0.00	4.17	232	80
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	79
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	79
Jackson Finley R 2024 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	18.0%	12.8%	1.7%	.361	3.97	20.9%	9.8%	67	-0.19	3.97	150	78
Matt Ball R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP-	4.72	21.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	312	77
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	77
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.33	20.2%	11.3%	189	+0.25	3.54	355	76
Kyle Nicolas R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	23.7%	11.5%	3.7%	.325	3.67	23.2%	9.7%	176	-0.94	3.25	464	76
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	76
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	75
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	75
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	75
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	75
Peyton Pallette R 2024 · 4.38 FIP	23	SW	4.38	20.7%	10.9%	3.0%	.309	3.59	25.9%	13.5%	119	-0.79	3.54	273	74
Grant Ford R 2021 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	20.1%	13.2%	4.9%	.300	4.61	19.0%	4.5%	112	-1.17	3.83	188	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	84	22.7%	11.5%	1.25	4.79
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Tim Birtsas ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.6	82	21.4%*	11.7%*	1.31*	4.63*
Bobby Castillo ('77-'85, 5 WAR*)	3.4	86	22.3%*	11.3%*	1.23*	4.27*
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	85	21.2%	10.9%	1.17	4.06
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28