Tink Hence
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.1 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION20 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 90
ERA3.92
FIP3.92
K%26.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%16.9%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 12% | 1.0 | 34.1% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 2.4% | 9.00 | 2.48 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | 8 | 1 | 8 | 41 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 12% | 1.0 | 34.1% | 7.3% | 26.8% | 2.4% | 9.00 | 2.35 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 16 | 16 | 52 | 195 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 30.7% | 9.1% | 21.7% | 0.9% | 1.38 | 2.13 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | 16 | 16 | 52 | 195 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 100% | 3.3 | 41.5% | 7.7% | 33.8% | 0.5% | 1.38 | 1.11 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 96 | 404 | 99 | 34 | 12 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.35 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 96 | 404 | 99 | 34 | 12 | 100% | 4.2 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.73 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 20 | 20 | 80 | 320 | 109 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 27.6% | 8.9% | 18.7% | 1.1% | 2.71 | 2.48 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 20 | 20 | 80 | 320 | 109 | 26 | 5 | 100% | 4.0 | 34.1% | 8.1% | 25.9% | 1.6% | 2.71 | 2.16 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 8 | 21 | 86 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 27.9% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 1.2% | 2.95 | 3.30 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 8 | 21 | 86 | 24 | 13 | 1 | 100% | 2.7 | 27.9% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 1.2% | 2.95 | 3.29 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 18 | 3 | 20 | 96 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 17% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 18.6% | -0.3% | 3.4% | 6.30 | 5.79 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 58 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 67 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | STL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 27 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.92 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 80 | 351 | 87 | 41 | 10 | — | — | 24.7% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.51 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | STL | — | — | 24 | 102 | 27 | 9 | 3 | — | — | 26.2% | 9.2% | 16.9% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.54 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 131 | 44 | 13 | 100% | 5.6 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.85 | +2.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 138 | 581 | 153 | 50 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.82 | +2.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 167 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 17.9% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.82 | +2.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 25 | 25 | 148 | 623 | 163 | 53 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.2% | 8.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +2.6 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 24 | 24 | 143 | 604 | 158 | 52 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +2.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 23 | 23 | 137 | 577 | 149 | 51 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 25.9% | 8.9% | 17.0% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.08 | +2.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 128 | 543 | 139 | 50 | 18 | 100% | 6.1 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.26 | +1.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 506 | 127 | 48 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 15.6% | 3.5% | 4.34 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 116 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.7% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 4.55 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 17 | 17 | 102 | 429 | 104 | 45 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 4.78 | 4.94 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | STL | 15 | 15 | 92 | 391 | 92 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 5.04 | 5.21 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 81 | 40 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 5.33 | 5.52 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 86 | 28 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 17.6% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.85 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 108 | 456 | 120 | 39 | 12 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.82 | +2.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 144 | 46 | 15 | 100% | 5.9 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 17.9% | 2.7% | 3.84 | 3.82 | +2.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 132 | 557 | 146 | 47 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.2% | 8.5% | 17.7% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.87 | +2.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | STL | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 145 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 26.1% | 8.7% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.95 | +2.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | STL | 21 | 21 | 127 | 536 | 139 | 48 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.9% | 8.9% | 17.0% | 3.0% | 4.01 | 4.08 | +2.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | STL | 20 | 20 | 120 | 507 | 129 | 47 | 16 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.5% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 4.16 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | STL | 19 | 19 | 114 | 481 | 121 | 46 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 25.1% | 9.5% | 15.6% | 3.4% | 4.34 | 4.46 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | STL | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 109 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.7% | 9.9% | 14.8% | 3.7% | 4.54 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | STL | 16 | 16 | 97 | 410 | 99 | 43 | 16 | 100% | 6.1 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 4.77 | 4.93 | +0.5 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | STL | 14 | 14 | 84 | 355 | 84 | 39 | 15 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.6% | 10.9% | 12.8% | 4.3% | 5.03 | 5.20 | -0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 69 | 34 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 5.32 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 217 | 1317 | 5562 | 1416 | 517 | 180 | 90% | 5.5 | 25.5% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 3.91 | +23.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 215 | 78 | 27 | 90% | 5.5 | 25.5% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 3.2% | 4.22 | 3.91 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 71 | 277 | 1142 | 282 | 118 | 23 | 76% | 3.0 | 24.7% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 3.47 | 3.42 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 67 | 51 | 200 | 824 | 203 | 85 | 17 | 76% | 3.0 | 24.7% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 2.0% | 3.47 | 3.42 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tink Hence (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.92 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 2.7% | — | 3.83 | 26.4% | 17.8% | 406 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 83 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 82 |
| Vince Velasquez R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.17 | 26.2% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .290 | 3.93 | 25.5% | 16.5% | 350 | +0.76 | 3.17 | 948 | 79 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 78 |
| Michael Baird R 2027 · 2.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.90 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 1.0% | .273 | 6.19 | 21.6% | 13.1% | 94 | +3.29 | 2.90 | 132 | 77 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 77 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 77 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 76 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2027 · 3.20 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.20 | 27.1% | 14.0% | 1.1% | .299 | 3.84 | 24.8% | 10.5% | 195 | +0.64 | 3.20 | 314 | 76 |
| Ryan Lobus R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.66 | 27.0% | 7.2% | 3.5% | .277 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 12.4% | 99 | -0.05 | 3.60 | 187 | 75 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 75 |
| Tyler Guilfoil R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.14 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 1.2% | .305 | 5.54 | 17.8% | 4.4% | 190 | +2.40 | 3.14 | 274 | 75 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 75 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 75 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 75 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 75 |
| Christian Scott R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.09 | 22.1% | 9.8% | 1.1% | .369 | 3.67 | 24.9% | 19.4% | 175 | +0.58 | 2.65 | 302 | 74 |
| Tylor Megill R 2027 · 3.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.01 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 0.9% | .331 | 3.91 | 26.8% | 19.7% | 177 | +0.90 | 3.01 | 603 | 74 |
| Taylor Williams R 2029 · 2.91 FIP | 26 | SP- | 2.91 | 23.2% | 11.1% | 0.7% | .333 | 3.81 | 23.7% | 15.0% | 136 | +0.90 | 2.59 | 309 | 74 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 13 | 118 | 25.5% | 9.3% | 1.25 | 4.21 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |
| Rich Hill ('23) | 9 | 104 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 1.12 | 3.65 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |
| Vince Velasquez ('23) | 9 | 85 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 1.48 | 4.88 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| James Paxton ('24) | 8 | 106 | 25.8% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 3.89 |