Tink Hence — OGILVIE

Tink Hence P Memphis Redbirds

+0.4 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2030

ERA4.11

FIP4.11

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%24.2%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%15.0%

IP84

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.9peak

2030

K†6060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Cardinals	8	1	8	41	14	3	1	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
2022	19	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	16	16	52	195	81	15	1	30.7%	9.1%	0.8%	1.38	2.11	+1.7
2023	20	AA	Springfield Cardinals	23	23	96	404	99	34	12	19.4%	9.4%	3.3%	4.31	4.48	+0.9
2024	21	AA	Springfield Cardinals	20	20	80	320	109	26	5	27.6%	8.9%	1.3%	2.71	2.64	+2.2
2025	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	8	8	21	86	24	13	1	—	—	—	2.95	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	5	0	5	31	3	6	1	—	—	—	11.81	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	STL	34	—	34	141	34	13	4	24.2%	9.2%	2.8%	4.11	4.11	+0.3
2026 Total	23	MLB	STL	—	—	39	172	37	19	5	21.6%	11.0%	2.8%	5.17	3.55	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	STL	19	19	102	430	105	37	12	24.5%	8.7%	2.8%	4.07	4.02	+1.5
2028	25	MLB	STL	21	21	115	486	120	41	13	24.7%	8.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.98	+1.7
2029	26	MLB	STL	22	22	122	516	128	43	14	24.8%	8.4%	2.8%	4.00	3.97	+1.8
2030	27	MLB	STL	23	23	125	529	131	44	15	24.7%	8.4%	2.8%	4.00	3.99	+1.9
2031	28	MLB	STL	23	23	125	529	131	45	15	24.7%	8.5%	2.8%	4.01	4.02	+1.8
2032	29	MLB	STL	22	22	123	518	127	44	15	24.5%	8.5%	2.9%	4.04	4.06	+1.7
2033	30	MLB	STL	22	22	119	502	122	43	15	24.3%	8.6%	2.9%	4.09	4.12	+1.6
2034	31	MLB	STL	21	21	115	484	117	42	15	24.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.15	4.20	+1.4
2035	32	MLB	STL	20	20	110	465	111	41	14	23.8%	8.9%	3.1%	4.23	4.28	+1.3
2036	33	MLB	STL	19	19	105	444	104	40	14	23.5%	9.1%	3.2%	4.32	4.38	+1.1
2037	34	MLB	STL	18	18	100	421	98	39	14	23.2%	9.3%	3.3%	4.42	4.49	+0.9
2038	35	MLB	STL	17	17	94	397	90	38	13	22.8%	9.5%	3.4%	4.54	4.61	+0.7
2039	36	MLB	STL	16	16	88	372	83	36	13	22.4%	9.8%	3.5%	4.66	4.75	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			80	68	263	1077	268	106	22	24.8%	9.9%	2.1%	3.43	3.39	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—			61	52	200	820	204	81	17	24.8%	9.9%	2.1%	3.43	3.39	+4.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tink Hence (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.11	24.2%	9.2%	2.8%	—	3.99	24.6%	16.1%	339	-0.12	—	—	—
Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	92
Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP	24	SU	4.06	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	20.5%	11.0%	189	+0.30	4.01	283	91
Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	90
Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	23.8%	11.0%	2.0%	.304	4.61	21.9%	9.2%	142	+1.01	3.60	246	89
Tyler Bray R 2026 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.22	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.84	2.82	152	89
Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	89
Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	89
Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	3.95	18.2%	9.1%	96	-0.00	3.37	134	88
Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	23	SU	4.10	26.9%	12.4%	3.1%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.48	4.10	130	88
Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.93	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.34	3.29	201	88
Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP	24	SU	4.43	22.4%	10.9%	3.3%	.261	3.88	20.1%	9.3%	114	-0.55	3.82	142	88
Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	23.2%	10.7%	2.2%	.239	5.62	20.0%	6.1%	278	+1.91	3.71	325	88
Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	87
Dylan DeLucia R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	21.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.241	5.00	18.8%	8.2%	108	+1.17	3.83	144	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP	23	SU	4.31	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.11	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.20	4.01	142	87
Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	27.7%	12.1%	2.2%	.291	4.31	19.4%	6.5%	183	+0.83	3.48	290	87
Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	27.5%	10.6%	3.8%	.263	3.63	28.9%	25.8%	37	-0.57	3.02	190	86
Mitchell Stumpo R 2028 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	25.6%	8.0%	3.6%	.299	5.28	22.4%	6.5%	121	+1.38	3.90	158	86
Nolan Clenney R 2028 · 3.74 FIP	25	SU	3.74	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.39	22.5%	13.6%	185	+0.65	3.74	223	86
Brendan Beck R 2027 · 3.19 FIP	24	SU	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	4.15	20.6%	13.7%	152	+0.96	3.19	183	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.7	$14M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.8	$16M	+$15M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.9	$17M	+$16M
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+1.8	$17M	+$13M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.7	$16M	+$11M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+1.6	$16M	+$8M
Totals		$20M		$96M	+$76M