Carson Rudd — OGILVIE

Carson Rudd P Chattanooga Lookouts

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%17.3%

BB%15.8%

K-BB%1.5%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	16	73	25	9	2	57%	2.3	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	2.0%	5.51	3.39	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	16	73	25	9	2	57%	2.3	34.2%	12.3%	21.9%	2.7%	5.51	3.28	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	3	50	222	71	30	10	11%	1.8	24.1%	15.8%	8.4%	5.5%	5.72	6.05	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	3	50	222	71	30	10	11%	1.8	32.0%	13.5%	18.5%	4.5%	5.72	4.65	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	21	15	66	283	77	32	10	71%	3.1	21.0%	13.0%	7.9%	4.6%	4.64	5.53	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	21	15	66	283	77	32	10	71%	3.1	21.0%	13.0%	7.9%	4.6%	4.64	5.53	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Dayton Dragons	21	15	66	283	77	32	10	71%	3.1	27.2%	11.3%	15.9%	3.5%	4.64	4.19	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	5	77	337	85	57	4	15%	2.3	20.4%	18.6%	1.8%	1.3%	3.04	4.45	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	5	77	337	85	57	4	15%	2.3	20.4%	18.6%	1.8%	1.3%	3.04	4.45	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	33	5	77	337	85	57	4	15%	2.3	25.2%	16.9%	8.3%	1.2%	3.04	3.79	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	44	212	28	28	3	0%	1.7	10.9%	15.5%	-4.6%	1.5%	7.51	4.97	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	44	212	28	28	3	0%	1.7	10.9%	15.5%	-4.6%	1.5%	7.51	4.97	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	44	212	28	28	3	0%	1.7	13.2%	13.2%	0.0%	1.4%	7.51	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CIN	3	0	3	13	2	2	0	0%	1.0	17.3%	15.8%	1.5%	2.6%	5.44	5.44	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	27	0	29	121	22	18	3	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.2%	2.5%	2.7%	5.38	5.41	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	10	0	11	46	8	7	1	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.2%	2.5%	2.7%	5.38	5.41	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	8	7	1	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.2%	2.5%	2.7%	5.38	5.03	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	130	19	0%	1.1	17.8%	15.2%	2.5%	2.7%	5.38	5.03	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		115	27	254	1127	223	175	34	23%	2.2	19.8%	15.5%	4.3%	3.0%	4.93	5.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	21	200	887	176	138	27	23%	2.2	19.8%	15.5%	4.3%	3.0%	4.93	5.07	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Rudd (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	17.3%	15.8%	2.6%	—	5.41	17.8%	2.5%	29	-0.03	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	86
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	82
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	80
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	80
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	78
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	78
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	77
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	77
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	77
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	76
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	76
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	76
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	76
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	75
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2017 · 5.30 FIP	26	SU	5.30	16.5%	18.7%	2.2%	.366	5.43	19.2%	7.7%	42	+0.13	4.54	132	75
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	75
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	75
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	75
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.64 FIP	25	SU	4.64	20.6%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.20	23.6%	6.8%	107	-0.44	4.00	311	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	17.5%	15.5%	1.03	5.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99