Carson Rudd
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
+0.0
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 190 lbs
AA
ERA4.91
FIP4.91
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.7%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%6.5%
IP42
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | 7 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.0% | 5.51 | 3.40 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 28 | 3 | 50 | 222 | 71 | 30 | 10 | 24.1% | 15.8% | 5.5% | 5.72 | 6.08 | -0.6 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 21 | 15 | 66 | 283 | 77 | 32 | 10 | 21.0% | 13.0% | 4.8% | 4.64 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 33 | 5 | 77 | 337 | 85 | 57 | 4 | 20.4% | 18.6% | 1.3% | 3.04 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 26 | 0 | 44 | 212 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 10.9% | 15.5% | 1.5% | 7.51 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 35 | 24 | 5 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 2.6% | 4.91 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 20.1% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.87 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 35 | 22 | 5 | 20.2% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.86 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 20.1% | 12.6% | 2.8% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 32 | 20 | 5 | 20.0% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.93 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 30 | 20 | 5 | 19.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 19.4% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 5.10 | 5.16 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 5.20 | 5.27 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 18.7% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 5.32 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 18.2% | 13.7% | 3.4% | 5.44 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 27 | 254 | 1127 | 223 | 175 | 35 | 19.8% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.09 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 21 | 200 | 887 | 176 | 138 | 28 | 19.8% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 4.93 | 5.09 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Rudd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.91 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.89 | 20.1% | 7.4% | 122 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 91 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 89 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 88 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 87 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 87 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 86 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 85 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 85 |
| Michael Blazek R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.97 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .336 | 4.43 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 124 | -0.54 | 3.06 | 221 | 85 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 85 |
| Erik Davis R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.95 | 17.9% | 13.5% | 1.2% | .363 | 3.64 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 181 | -0.31 | 3.05 | 227 | 84 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.48 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.8% | .324 | 5.48 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.00 | 5.37 | 129 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 83 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 83 |
| Matt Wivinis R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.83 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.5% | .262 | 5.90 | 14.5% | 6.2% | 17 | +2.07 | 1.61 | 124 | 83 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 83 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.96 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.30 | 12.7% | 9.3% | 64 | -0.66 | 2.57 | 323 | 83 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 83 |
| Gregory Infante R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.55 | 16.9% | 15.7% | 1.6% | .290 | 3.80 | 21.3% | 12.7% | 181 | -0.75 | 2.97 | 230 | 83 |
| Burch Smith R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.92 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.45 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.53 | 3.42 | 365 | 83 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.