Carson Rudd
P
Chattanooga Lookouts
Age 27
RHP
6'5" / 190 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130120vR 111
ERA4.90
FIP4.90
K%19.7%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP30
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 57% | 2.3 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 14.8% | 2.1% | 5.51 | 3.43 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 25 | 9 | 2 | 57% | 2.3 | 34.2% | 12.3% | 21.9% | 2.7% | 5.51 | 3.28 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 3 | 50 | 222 | 71 | 30 | 10 | 11% | 1.8 | 24.1% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.72 | 5.97 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 3 | 50 | 222 | 71 | 30 | 10 | 11% | 1.8 | 32.0% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 4.5% | 5.72 | 4.65 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 21 | 15 | 66 | 283 | 77 | 32 | 10 | 71% | 3.1 | 21.0% | 13.0% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 4.64 | 5.67 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | 21 | 15 | 66 | 283 | 77 | 32 | 10 | 71% | 3.1 | 27.2% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 3.5% | 4.64 | 4.19 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 33 | 5 | 77 | 337 | 85 | 57 | 4 | 15% | 2.3 | 20.4% | 18.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 3.04 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 33 | 5 | 77 | 337 | 85 | 57 | 4 | 15% | 2.3 | 25.2% | 16.9% | 8.3% | 1.2% | 3.04 | 3.79 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 44 | 212 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 10.9% | 15.5% | -4.6% | 1.5% | 7.51 | 4.95 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 0 | 44 | 212 | 28 | 28 | 3 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.2% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 7.51 | 4.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 28 | 0 | 30 | 125 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 4.90 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 27 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 24 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.55 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 167 | 111 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 2.7% | 4.90 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 115 | 27 | 254 | 1127 | 223 | 175 | 34 | 23% | 2.2 | 19.8% | 15.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 5.07 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 91 | 21 | 200 | 887 | 176 | 138 | 27 | 23% | 2.2 | 19.8% | 15.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Rudd (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.90 | 19.7% | 13.2% | 2.6% | — | 4.93 | 20.0% | 7.0% | 29 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 89 |
| Luis Mateo R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.33 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.4% | .309 | 5.34 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +1.01 | 3.43 | 160 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 82 |
| Josh Zeid R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.21 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .302 | 5.16 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +0.95 | 4.21 | 265 | 80 |
| Jake Stinnett R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.07 | 21.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.88 | 356 | 80 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 79 |
| Dustin Antolin R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.36 | 16.2% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .368 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.90 | 159 | 79 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2024 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 78 |
| Logan Taylor R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.78 | 17.2% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 300 | 78 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 78 |
| David Holman R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 78 |
| Mike Adams R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.26 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 109 | 77 |
| Sean Harney R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.28 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 1.3% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 123 | 77 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.79 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 2.3% | .239 | 5.47 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 96 | +0.68 | 3.33 | 258 | 77 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 77 |
| Chris Beck R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.83 | 17.4% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.33 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 41 | +0.50 | 3.11 | 313 | 77 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 77 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.61 | 18.2% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 183 | 77 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 77 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 29 | 19.8% | 13.1% | 1.02 | 4.90 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |