Tanner Burns — OGILVIE

Tanner Burns P Columbus Clippers

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 210 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 30 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%17.6%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 30 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	18	18	76	315	91	29	10	100%	4.2	22.2%	10.6%	11.7%	3.2%	3.57	4.34	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Lake County Captains	18	18	76	315	91	29	10	100%	4.2	28.9%	9.2%	19.7%	3.2%	3.57	3.56	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	89	388	92	45	14	100%	4.2	19.2%	12.8%	6.4%	4.3%	3.55	5.44	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	21	21	89	388	92	45	14	100%	4.2	23.7%	11.6%	12.1%	3.6%	3.55	4.60	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	29	14	87	360	86	41	11	48%	3.0	19.4%	12.5%	6.8%	4.0%	3.01	5.27	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Akron RubberDucks	29	14	87	360	86	41	11	48%	3.0	19.4%	12.5%	6.8%	4.0%	3.01	5.27	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Akron RubberDucks	29	14	87	360	86	41	11	48%	3.0	23.9%	11.4%	12.5%	3.1%	3.01	4.18	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	51	0	69	308	70	46	11	0%	1.3	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	3.7%	4.59	5.24	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	51	0	69	308	70	46	11	0%	1.3	18.9%	13.4%	5.4%	3.7%	4.59	5.24	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	51	0	69	308	70	46	11	0%	1.3	22.7%	14.9%	7.8%	3.6%	4.59	5.15	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	24	0	35	158	28	19	4	0%	1.5	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	2.5%	5.86	4.63	—
2025	26	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	24	0	35	158	28	19	4	0%	1.5	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	2.5%	5.86	4.63	—
2025	26	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	24	0	35	158	28	19	4	0%	1.5	17.7%	12.0%	5.7%	2.5%	5.86	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	24	0	27	129	29	22	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	15.3%	3.3%	2.6%	7.09	4.87	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	24	0	27	129	29	22	3	0%	1.1	18.7%	15.3%	3.3%	2.6%	7.09	4.87	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CLE	24	0	27	129	29	22	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	17.1%	5.4%	2.3%	7.09	4.64	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	28	0	29	123	22	14	4	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.7%	6.3%	3.2%	5.15	5.18	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	11	0	12	51	9	6	2	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.7%	6.3%	3.2%	5.15	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	12	52	9	6	2	0%	1.0	18.1%	11.7%	6.3%	3.2%	5.15	4.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	145	97	32	0%	1.1	18.1%	11.7%	6.3%	3.2%	5.15	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		167	53	382	1658	320	206	60	32%	2.3	19.3%	12.4%	6.8%	3.6%	4.08	5.04	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	28	200	869	168	108	31	32%	2.3	19.3%	12.4%	6.8%	3.6%	4.08	5.04	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Burns (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	17.6%	11.8%	3.1%	—	5.18	18.1%	6.3%	29	-0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	80
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	79
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	79
Josh Zeid R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	16.6%	12.5%	1.6%	.302	5.19	16.9%	5.7%	194	+1.07	4.12	265	79
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	79
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	78
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	78
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	78
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	77
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	77
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	77
Nelson Gonzalez R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	27	SU	5.00	15.3%	13.7%	2.6%	.239	5.79	17.4%	6.7%	96	+0.79	3.42	258	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Fernery Ozuna R 2023 · 5.71 FIP	27	SU	5.71	18.4%	11.6%	4.9%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	157	76
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	76
Trevor Cahill R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	27	SW	4.13	16.4%	9.4%	2.2%	.297	4.12	22.9%	12.0%	293	-0.01	3.37	556	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	17.9%	11.8%	1.21	5.17
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50