Kyle Nicolas
P
Cincinnati Reds
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 216 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.21
FIP4.17
xFIP7.85
SIERA7.52
K%23.2%
BB%11.4%
K-BB%11.9%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF5555
CTRL3030
CMD4040
K†6565
FB Velo
p9097.6
Whiff%
p7629.4%
K%
p3820.4%
xwOBA vs
p460.316
SL (33%)
SI (2%)
CU (16%)
FB-2.4 (51%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 21 | 20 | 99 | 426 | 136 | 49 | 16 | 25.1% | 12.9% | 4.3% | 4.18 | 4.99 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 24 | 22 | 91 | 390 | 101 | 47 | 9 | 21.0% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 39 | 18 | 104 | 473 | 134 | 56 | 17 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 4.70 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60 | 0 | 65 | 287 | 68 | 39 | 4 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 1.7% | 3.44 | 3.66 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61 | 1 | 74 | 328 | 84 | 38 | 4 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 4.28 | 3.30 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 7 | 0 | 8 | 35 | 8 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 11 | — | 11 | 48 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 27.0% | 12.7% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 19 | 83 | 21 | 13 | 2 | 25.3% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 4.46 | 2.49 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 27.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.23 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 40 | 19 | 4 | 26.5% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 4.25 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 146 | 38 | 19 | 4 | 25.9% | 12.9% | 2.6% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 141 | 36 | 18 | 4 | 25.4% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 33 | 18 | 4 | 24.7% | 13.2% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 29 | — | 29 | 123 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 23.4% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.84 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 212 | 61 | 440 | 1939 | 453 | 247 | 56 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 28 | 200 | 881 | 206 | 112 | 25 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Nicolas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.16 | 27.0% | 12.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.26 | 26.5% | 13.6% | 106 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 79 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 78 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 78 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 77 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.32 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.84 | 1.48 | 230 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.42 | 27.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .301 | 3.61 | 23.6% | 14.3% | 70 | +0.19 | 2.59 | 156 | 75 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.68 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.4% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.92 | 2.75 | 233 | 75 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.02 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.3% | .314 | 2.56 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.46 | 1.54 | 521 | 74 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 74 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 74 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 74 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 74 |
| David Morgan R 2024 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.37 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 148 | 74 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 74 |
| Yosver Zulueta R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.37 | 27.5% | 13.4% | 3.4% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 246 | 74 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.65 | 25.5% | 12.6% | 2.0% | .272 | 2.48 | 19.9% | 14.3% | 37 | -1.17 | 2.48 | 138 | 74 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.09 | 28.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .277 | 5.99 | 11.9% | -5.1% | 16 | +1.90 | 3.86 | 134 | 74 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 73 |
| JT Chargois R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.35 | 24.4% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .282 | 3.49 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 108 | +0.14 | 2.57 | 362 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.