Kyle Nicolas — OGILVIE

Kyle Nicolas P Rochester Red Wings

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 216 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.04

FIP4.02

K%24.9%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†6060

SL (33%)

SI (2%)

CU (16%)

FB-2.4 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	20	99	426	136	49	16	95%	4.7	25.1%	12.9%	12.1%	4.4%	4.18	5.02	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	20	99	426	136	49	16	95%	4.7	31.9%	11.5%	20.4%	3.8%	4.18	3.94	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	24	22	91	390	101	47	9	92%	3.8	21.0%	13.3%	7.7%	2.6%	3.97	4.41	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	24	22	91	390	101	47	9	92%	3.8	25.9%	12.1%	13.8%	2.3%	3.97	3.72	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	18	104	473	134	56	17	46%	2.7	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.7%	5.54	4.64	-0.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	18	104	473	134	56	17	46%	2.7	23.3%	11.5%	11.8%	3.7%	5.54	4.64	-0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	18	104	473	134	56	17	46%	2.7	28.3%	11.8%	16.5%	3.6%	5.54	4.26	+0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	65	287	68	39	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	1.8%	3.44	3.73	+0.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	65	287	68	39	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	1.8%	3.44	3.73	+0.6
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	65	287	68	39	4	0%	1.1	23.7%	13.6%	10.1%	1.4%	3.44	3.61	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	74	328	84	38	4	2%	1.2	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	1.4%	4.28	3.29	+1.1
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	1	74	328	84	38	4	2%	1.2	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	1.4%	4.28	3.29	+1.1
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	1	74	328	84	38	4	2%	1.2	25.6%	11.6%	14.0%	1.2%	4.28	3.07	+1.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	105	478	103	65	9	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.6%	7.9%	1.9%	4.96	4.11	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	51	0	51	265	65	60	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	19.0%	2.6%	1.5%	5.08	4.49	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	51	0	51	265	65	60	4	0%	1.0	21.6%	19.0%	2.6%	1.5%	5.08	4.49	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CIN	44	0	44	223	58	47	3	0%	1.0	26.0%	21.1%	4.9%	1.3%	4.50	4.31	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	CIN	7	0	7	42	7	13	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	31.0%	-14.3%	2.4%	8.59	6.92	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CIN	7	0	7	42	7	13	1	0%	1.0	16.7%	31.0%	-14.3%	2.4%	8.59	6.92	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.2%	11.8%	2.5%	4.04	4.02	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CIN	6	0	6	25	6	3	1	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.2%	11.8%	2.5%	4.04	4.02	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CIN	—	—	57	290	71	63	5	—	—	24.6%	21.8%	2.7%	1.6%	4.98	4.44	+0.1
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CIN	—	—	13	56	71	63	5	—	—	127.3%	113.1%	14.2%	8.3%	21.49	11.20	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	267	65	39	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	14.8%	9.5%	2.6%	4.69	4.72	-0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	60	255	60	38	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	15.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.80	4.88	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	CIN	57	0	60	253	61	37	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	14.8%	9.5%	2.6%	4.69	4.72	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CIN	54	0	57	241	57	36	7	0%	1.1	23.7%	15.0%	8.7%	2.7%	4.80	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		211	0	229	1000	228	142	23	0%	1.1	22.8%	14.2%	8.6%	2.3%	4.82	4.22	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	874	199	124	20	0%	1.1	22.8%	14.2%	8.6%	2.3%	4.82	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		256	61	484	2169	496	283	60	24%	1.9	22.9%	13.0%	9.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	25	200	896	205	117	25	24%	1.9	22.9%	13.0%	9.8%	2.8%	4.44	4.33	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Nicolas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	25.5%	12.6%	2.5%	—	4.80	24.0%	9.1%	124	+0.50	—	—	—
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	77
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	76
Lucas Erceg R 2022 · 4.48 FIP	27	SU	4.48	20.8%	14.0%	2.5%	.339	2.96	24.5%	15.8%	193	-1.52	2.10	346	76
Jake Barrett R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	26.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.266	1.48	29.8%	22.7%	15	-1.83	1.48	230	76
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.86	21.0%	9.6%	69	+0.93	3.84	181	75
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	75
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	75
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	74
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	73
Brad Goldberg R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	27	SU	4.38	18.4%	15.4%	1.6%	.331	3.14	30.3%	13.3%	36	-1.24	3.14	197	73
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	73
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	73
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	73
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	73
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	72
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	72
Mason Vinyard R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	22.7%	13.6%	1.5%	.270	4.67	19.3%	5.9%	147	+0.94	3.60	207	72
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	24.5%	14.1%	1.01	4.61
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64