Kyle Nicolas
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 216 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION65 act + 37 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112103vR 93
ERA4.07
FIP4.06
K%25.2%
BB%14.1%
K-BB%11.1%
ROS IP37
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 102 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SL (33%)
SI (2%)
CU (16%)
FB-2.4 (51%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 99 | 426 | 136 | 49 | 16 | 95% | 4.7 | 25.1% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.18 | 4.87 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 20 | 99 | 426 | 136 | 49 | 16 | 95% | 4.7 | 31.9% | 11.5% | 20.4% | 3.8% | 4.18 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 24 | 22 | 91 | 390 | 101 | 47 | 9 | 92% | 3.8 | 21.0% | 13.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 3.97 | 4.31 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 24 | 22 | 91 | 390 | 101 | 47 | 9 | 92% | 3.8 | 25.9% | 12.1% | 13.8% | 2.3% | 3.97 | 3.72 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 18 | 104 | 473 | 134 | 56 | 17 | 46% | 2.7 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 5.54 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 39 | 18 | 104 | 473 | 134 | 56 | 17 | 46% | 2.7 | 28.3% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 3.6% | 5.54 | 4.26 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 65 | 287 | 68 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 3.44 | 3.67 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 65 | 287 | 68 | 39 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.7% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.44 | 3.61 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 1 | 74 | 328 | 84 | 38 | 4 | 2% | 1.2 | 23.8% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 4.28 | 3.33 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 1 | 74 | 328 | 84 | 38 | 4 | 2% | 1.2 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 1.2% | 4.28 | 3.07 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 64 | 0 | 65 | 350 | 82 | 84 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.4% | 24.2% | -2.8% | 1.4% | 6.20 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 154 | 39 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.2% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CIN | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 39 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.2% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 4.07 | 4.06 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 102 | 504 | 121 | 106 | 9 | — | — | 24.0% | 21.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 5.44 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 44 | 185 | 121 | 106 | 9 | — | — | 65.3% | 57.1% | 8.2% | 4.7% | 12.62 | 7.39 | -1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 66 | 41 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 58 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 61 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 15.5% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 56 | 38 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.10 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 62 | 39 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 4.70 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 58 | 37 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 15.5% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 53 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.98 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 291 | 0 | 314 | 1357 | 316 | 199 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.78 | 4.30 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 186 | 0 | 200 | 866 | 202 | 127 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 14.7% | 8.6% | 2.4% | 4.78 | 4.30 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 269 | 61 | 498 | 2254 | 520 | 325 | 57 | 23% | 1.9 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.61 | 4.37 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 108 | 24 | 200 | 905 | 209 | 130 | 23 | 23% | 1.9 | 23.1% | 14.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | 4.61 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Nicolas (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 25.8% | 13.2% | 2.4% | — | 4.90 | 24.0% | 8.5% | 181 | +0.59 | — | — | — |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 76 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.8% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .339 | 2.99 | 24.6% | 15.7% | 193 | -1.52 | 2.09 | 339 | 76 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.93 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +0.99 | 3.68 | 181 | 76 |
| Brian Ellington R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.81 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 3.6% | .283 | 5.60 | 22.4% | 5.3% | 29 | +0.79 | 2.75 | 233 | 75 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 75 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.7% | .360 | 5.09 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.79 | 3.42 | 173 | 75 |
| Grant Black R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.49 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +0.97 | 4.49 | 215 | 74 |
| Jake Barrett R 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.28 | 26.1% | 13.0% | 1.3% | .266 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 22.7% | 15 | -1.80 | 1.48 | 230 | 74 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.59 | 23.6% | 15.6% | 0.9% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 160 | 73 |
| Brad Goldberg R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.4% | 15.4% | 1.5% | .331 | 3.17 | 30.3% | 13.3% | 36 | -1.15 | 3.17 | 197 | 73 |
| Nick Ernst R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 73 |
| Jacob Webb R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.56 | 21.0% | 15.2% | 2.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 252 | 73 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 72 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 72 |
| Cole Uvila R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.08 | 20.4% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .360 | 3.16 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 44 | -0.92 | 3.16 | 155 | 72 |
| Grant Sides R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 72 |
| Armando Rivero R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 72 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.25 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.31 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.94 | 2.16 | 186 | 72 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.20 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 140 | 72 |
| Evan Gates R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.87 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.1% | .312 | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.74 | 277 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 56 | 24.3% | 15.0% | 1.03 | 4.73 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |