Ranger Suarez — OGILVIE

Ranger Suarez P Boston Red Sox

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.2 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION138 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7886vR 94

ERA3.13

FIP3.19

K%22.7%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%15.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$65M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—55

STUF5055

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p2722.1%

p5322.8%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

FB+6.0 (46%)

SL (5%)

SI (24%)

CU (17%)

CT (19%)

CH-3.6 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 6.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2027

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$2M	+0.3	$1M	-$0.9M
2027	Ext	$26M	+2.0	$15M	-$9M
2028	Ext	$26M	+1.4	$10M	-$11M
2029	Ext	$26M	+0.9	$3M	-$16M
2030	Ext	$26M	+0.5	$1M	-$16M
Totals		$106M		$30M	-$53M

Options · projected decision
2031	MUTUAL OPT	$26.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	MUTUAL OPT	$35.0M / $10.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$53M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	6	4	28	99	20	4	0	67%	4.6	13.7%	5.1%	8.7%	0.0%	0.65	2.58	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	6	4	28	99	20	4	0	67%	4.6	20.2%	4.0%	16.2%	0.0%	0.65	2.09	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	123	485	128	35	5	100%	5.6	19.8%	8.4%	11.3%	1.5%	2.27	3.32	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	123	485	128	35	5	100%	5.6	26.4%	7.2%	19.2%	1.0%	2.27	2.40	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	139	571	96	38	7	96%	5.6	14.4%	7.1%	7.2%	1.3%	3.04	3.48	+2.4
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	139	571	96	38	7	96%	5.6	16.8%	6.7%	10.2%	1.2%	3.04	3.19	+3.0
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	7	87	367	74	20	14	16%	2.0	19.1%	5.6%	13.5%	4.3%	4.26	4.55	+0.0
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	7	87	367	74	20	14	16%	2.0	20.2%	5.4%	14.7%	3.8%	4.26	4.18	+0.4
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	4	26	1	4	1	0%	1.3	3.8%	15.4%	-11.5%	3.8%	20.25	6.84	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	4	26	1	4	1	0%	1.3	3.8%	15.4%	-11.5%	3.8%	20.25	8.85	-0.2
2021	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	39	12	106	418	107	30	4	31%	2.7	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	0.9%	1.36	2.34	+2.9
2021	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	39	12	106	418	107	30	4	31%	2.7	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	1.0%	1.36	2.42	+2.8
2022	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	155	662	129	58	15	100%	5.4	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	2.1%	3.65	3.72	+2.2
2022	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	155	662	129	58	15	100%	5.4	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	2.3%	3.65	3.81	+2.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	134	572	124	50	13	100%	5.4	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	2.2%	3.96	3.60	+2.1
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	134	572	124	50	13	100%	5.4	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	2.2%	3.96	3.60	+2.1
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	134	572	124	50	13	100%	5.4	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	2.3%	3.96	3.63	+2.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	27	27	151	626	145	40	14	100%	5.6	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	2.1%	3.46	3.10	+3.4
2024	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	27	27	151	626	145	40	14	100%	5.6	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	2.1%	3.46	3.10	+3.4
2024	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	27	27	151	626	145	40	14	100%	5.6	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	2.2%	3.46	3.18	+3.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	174	714	175	43	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	5.8%	17.4%	2.0%	3.00	2.98	+4.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	174	714	175	43	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	5.8%	17.4%	2.0%	3.00	2.98	+4.2
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	30	174	714	175	43	14	100%	5.8	24.5%	6.0%	18.5%	2.0%	3.00	2.88	+4.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			213	145	900	3766	835	273	79	68%	4.2	22.2%	7.2%	14.9%	2.1%	3.37	3.30	+17.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	26	26	138	569	130	40	9	100%	5.3	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	1.6%	3.33	2.95	+3.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	26	26	138	569	130	40	9	100%	5.3	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	1.6%	3.33	2.95	+3.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	MLB RAW	BOS	26	26	138	569	130	40	9	100%	5.3	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	1.6%	3.33	2.93	+3.4
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	BOS	26	26	138	569	130	40	9	100%	5.3	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	1.6%	3.33	2.93	+3.4
ROS	30	MLB MLE	BOS	2	2	13	53	12	4	1	100%	6.3	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	2.1%	3.13	3.19	+0.3
ROS	30	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	13	55	12	4	1	100%	6.5	22.7%	6.8%	15.9%	2.1%	3.11	3.17	+0.3
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	BOS	—	—	150	622	142	44	10	—	—	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	1.6%	3.32	2.97	+3.6
FULL	30	MLB A+C	BOS	—	—	150	635	142	44	10	—	—	22.4%	6.9%	15.5%	1.6%	3.31	2.95	+3.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	BOS	23	23	138	581	127	41	12	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.1%	14.8%	2.1%	3.58	3.69	+2.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	21	21	127	537	113	40	13	100%	6.1	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	2.4%	3.80	3.95	+1.4
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	19	19	117	493	100	39	13	100%	6.1	20.2%	8.0%	12.3%	2.6%	4.06	4.23	+0.9
2030	34	MLB MLE	BOS	18	18	106	448	87	38	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.34	4.53	+0.5
2031	35	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	95	402	74	36	13	100%	6.0	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.3%	4.66	4.87	+0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	BOS	23	23	138	583	128	41	12	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.1%	14.8%	2.1%	3.55	3.66	+2.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	127	536	113	40	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	2.3%	3.77	3.92	+1.4
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	20	20	117	494	100	39	13	100%	5.8	20.2%	8.0%	12.3%	2.6%	4.02	4.19	+0.9
2030	34	MLB CTX	BOS	18	18	106	448	87	38	13	100%	5.9	19.3%	8.5%	10.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.49	+0.5
2031	35	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	95	401	74	36	13	100%	5.9	18.4%	9.0%	9.4%	3.2%	4.62	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	245	1495	6280	1348	472	143	78%	4.8	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	2.3%	3.62	3.49	+25.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		42	33	200	840	180	63	19	78%	4.8	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	2.3%	3.62	3.49	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		276	206	1238	5109	1065	372	98	75%	4.5	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	1.9%	3.16	3.32	+22.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	33	200	825	172	60	16	75%	4.5	20.9%	7.3%	13.6%	1.9%	3.16	3.32	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ranger Suarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.63	22.3%	6.3%	2.2%	—	3.94	21.1%	13.6%	381	+0.31	—	—	—
Jose Quintana L 2019 · 3.69 FIP	30	SP	3.69	20.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.324	3.39	22.5%	14.4%	229	-0.30	2.95	1,596	67
James Paxton L 2019 · 3.59 FIP	30	SP	3.59	29.4%	8.7%	3.4%	.312	3.93	28.9%	21.1%	20	+0.34	2.46	924	65
Wade Miley L 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SP	4.76	19.5%	12.6%	3.1%	.328	3.96	18.3%	10.1%	288	-0.80	3.36	1,167	62
Clayton Kershaw L 2018 · 3.03 FIP	30	SP	3.03	23.8%	4.5%	2.5%	.272	3.27	27.9%	23.0%	358	+0.24	1.44	1,477	62
Gio Gonzalez L 2016 · 3.52 FIP	30	SP	3.52	22.4%	7.5%	2.5%	.309	3.81	21.4%	11.8%	479	+0.29	2.90	864	60
Danny Duffy L 2019 · 4.65 FIP	30	SP	4.65	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.279	4.02	24.7%	16.1%	117	-0.63	3.29	915	58
Patrick Corbin L 2019 · 3.30 FIP	30	SP	3.30	28.5%	8.1%	2.9%	.287	4.71	18.8%	11.8%	390	+1.41	2.30	1,829	57
Brett Anderson L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	30	SP	3.49	16.7%	4.1%	2.3%	.312	4.32	13.3%	7.0%	319	+0.83	3.49	706	57
Andrew Heaney L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	30	SP-	4.43	26.9%	7.3%	4.9%	.299	3.74	25.6%	18.3%	380	-0.69	3.19	1,197	55
Jaime García L 2016 · 4.38 FIP	30	SP	4.38	20.2%	7.3%	3.8%	.299	4.28	19.4%	9.7%	239	-0.10	2.93	540	54
Dallas Keuchel L 2018 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.5%	6.6%	2.1%	.299	4.33	15.6%	7.9%	338	+0.71	2.86	1,402	53
David Price L 2016 · 3.50 FIP	30	SP	3.50	24.0%	5.2%	3.2%	.306	3.66	25.4%	18.3%	358	+0.16	2.65	922	51
Yusei Kikuchi L 2021 · 4.49 FIP	30	SP	4.49	24.5%	9.3%	4.2%	.285	4.00	27.0%	19.2%	444	-0.49	3.23	1,041	50
Mike Minor L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	30	SP	4.15	20.6%	5.8%	3.8%	.253	4.19	23.2%	16.0%	424	+0.04	2.43	807	49
Wade LeBlanc L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	31	SP-	3.65	20.3%	5.3%	2.9%	.289	4.62	18.7%	13.0%	351	+0.97	3.65	609	48
J.A. Happ L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	32	SP	3.37	21.1%	5.7%	2.4%	.308	3.73	23.1%	15.9%	518	+0.36	3.37	1,053	47
Scott Kazmir L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	31	SP	3.84	20.3%	7.7%	2.7%	.268	4.30	21.6%	12.9%	148	+0.46	3.84	395	47
Christian Friedrich L 2016 · 3.96 FIP	29	SP	3.96	17.6%	8.8%	2.2%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	188	46
Francisco Liriano L 2015 · 3.14 FIP	31	SP	3.14	26.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.289	4.64	20.7%	8.8%	394	+1.50	3.14	650	46
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2015 · 3.51 FIP	30	SP	3.51	14.9%	6.4%	1.6%	.326	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	90	-0.20	3.01	240	45

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	122	20.7%	7.6%	0.98	3.94
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12