Ranger Suarez

P Boston Red Sox

Age 31 LHP 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 2.5 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANExtFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	MLBPHI	27	27	151	3.46	3.18	23.2%	6.4%	4.2
2025	29	MIX3 levels	30	30	174	3.00	2.88	24.5%	6.0%	5.6	K 23.2% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.98
2026	30	MLBBOS	28	28	148	3.22	3.02	22.9%	7.5%	4.4
2027PROJ	31	MLBBOS	19	19	114	3.47	3.63	22.0%	6.9%	2.5
2028PROJ	32	MLBBOS	16	16	94	3.69	3.86	21.2%	7.3%	1.7
2029PROJ	33	MLBBOS	12	12	74	3.95	4.13	20.3%	7.8%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 14.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 5.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service7.651First FA2028Options2

2027Ext$26M2028Ext$26M2029Ext$26M2030Ext$26M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs68

K%54

FB Velo10

Form2.70 ERA (proj 3.47) · K 19.0% (proj 22.0%) · BB 7.4% (proj 6.9%) ▼ last 60d · 30 IP through Oct 27

CompsChris Narveson (age 29) · Wandy Rodriguez (age 31) · Wei-Yin Chen (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8391vR 99

ERA3.47

FIP3.63

K%22.0%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%15.1%

Proj IP114

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 114 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$57M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.5

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p5422.9%

xwOBA vs

p680.294

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.651 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext	$26M	+2.5	$20M	-$6M
2028	Ext	$26M	+1.7	$13M	-$11M
2029	Ext	$26M	+1.1	$8M	-$13M
2030	Ext	$26M	+0.6	$2M	-$17M
Totals		$104M		$42M	-$47M

Options · projected decision
2031	MUTUAL OPT	$26.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2032	MUTUAL OPT	$35.0M / $10.0M buyout	DECLINE

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$47M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies	6	4	28	99	20	4	0	67%	4.6	13.7%	5.1%	8.7%	0.0%	0.65	2.58	—
2015	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies	6	4	28	99	20	4	0	67%	4.6	20.2%	4.0%	16.2%	0.0%	0.65	2.09	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	22	123	485	128	35	5	100%	5.6	19.8%	8.4%	11.3%	1.5%	2.27	3.32	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	22	123	485	128	35	5	100%	5.6	26.4%	7.2%	19.2%	1.0%	2.27	2.40	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	24	139	571	96	38	7	96%	5.6	14.4%	7.1%	7.2%	1.3%	3.04	3.48	+3.3
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	24	139	571	96	38	7	96%	5.6	16.8%	6.7%	10.2%	1.2%	3.04	3.19	+3.8
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	7	87	367	74	20	14	16%	2.0	19.1%	5.6%	13.5%	4.3%	4.26	4.55	+0.0
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	7	87	367	74	20	14	16%	2.0	20.2%	5.4%	14.7%	3.8%	4.26	4.18	+0.4
2020	24	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	4	26	1	4	1	0%	1.3	3.8%	15.4%	-11.5%	3.8%	20.25	6.84	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	4	26	1	4	1	0%	1.3	3.8%	15.4%	-11.5%	3.8%	20.25	8.85	-0.2
2021	25	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	39	12	106	418	107	30	4	31%	2.7	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	0.9%	1.36	2.34	+2.9
2021	25	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	39	12	106	418	107	30	4	31%	2.7	25.6%	7.2%	18.4%	1.0%	1.36	2.42	+2.8
2022	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	155	662	129	58	15	100%	5.4	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	2.1%	3.65	3.72	+3.1
2022	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	29	29	155	662	129	58	15	100%	5.4	19.5%	8.8%	10.7%	2.3%	3.65	3.81	+3.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	134	572	124	50	13	100%	5.4	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	2.2%	3.96	3.60	+2.9
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	134	572	124	50	13	100%	5.4	21.7%	8.7%	12.9%	2.3%	3.96	3.63	+2.9
2024	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	27	27	151	626	145	40	14	100%	5.6	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	2.1%	3.46	3.10	+4.3
2024	28	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	27	27	151	626	145	40	14	100%	5.6	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	2.1%	3.46	3.10	+4.3
2024	28	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	27	27	151	626	145	40	14	100%	5.6	23.2%	6.4%	16.8%	2.2%	3.46	3.18	+4.2
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	174	714	175	43	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	5.8%	17.4%	2.0%	3.00	2.98	+5.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	174	714	175	43	14	100%	5.8	23.2%	5.8%	17.4%	2.0%	3.00	2.98	+5.3
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	30	174	714	175	43	14	100%	5.8	24.5%	6.0%	18.5%	2.0%	3.00	2.88	+5.6
2026	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	28	28	148	612	140	46	10	100%	5.3	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	1.7%	3.22	3.04	+4.4
2026	30	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	28	28	148	612	140	46	10	100%	5.3	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	1.7%	3.22	3.04	+4.4
2026	30	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	28	28	148	612	140	46	10	100%	5.3	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	1.6%	3.22	3.02	+4.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			215	147	910	3809	845	279	80	68%	4.2	22.2%	7.3%	14.9%	2.1%	3.35	3.31	+23.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	BOS	19	19	114	481	106	33	10	100%	6.0	22.0%	6.9%	15.1%	2.1%	3.47	3.63	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	BOS	16	16	94	398	84	29	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.72	3.89	+1.7
2029	33	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	313	64	24	8	100%	6.2	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	2.6%	3.99	4.17	+1.1
2030	34	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	54	230	45	19	7	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.2%	2.9%	4.28	4.47	+0.6
2031	35	MLB MLE	BOS	6	6	36	151	28	13	5	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.8%	9.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.81	+0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	BOS	16	16	94	397	84	29	9	100%	5.9	21.2%	7.3%	13.9%	2.2%	3.69	3.86	+1.7
2029	33	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	74	312	63	24	8	100%	6.2	20.3%	7.8%	12.6%	2.5%	3.95	4.13	+1.1
2030	34	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	54	228	44	19	6	100%	6.0	19.4%	8.3%	11.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.43	+0.6
2031	35	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	36	152	28	13	5	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.8%	9.6%	3.1%	4.56	4.77	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	190	1169	4900	1065	365	108	74%	4.5	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	2.2%	3.50	3.42	+28.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		44	33	200	839	182	62	18	74%	4.5	21.7%	7.4%	14.3%	2.2%	3.50	3.42	+4.8
Career	—	MLE		278	208	1249	5152	1075	378	99	75%	4.5	20.9%	7.3%	13.5%	1.9%	3.15	3.32	+26.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	33	200	825	172	60	16	75%	4.5	20.9%	7.3%	13.5%	1.9%	3.15	3.32	+4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 10 IPFIP 1.54 → 1.82 (+0.27)K% 34.2% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.21%	—	×0.860	29.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.53%	—	×0.900	9.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.947	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.54 → 1.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 7 IPFIP -0.11 → 0.95 (+1.06)K% 44.0% → 32.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.00%	—	×0.740	32.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×1.180	4.72%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.083	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP -0.11 → 0.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 7 IPFIP 2.26 → 2.39 (+0.14)K% 16.0% → 13.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.00%	—	×0.860	13.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.00%	—	×0.900	3.60%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.028	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.26 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 38 IPFIP 4.92 → 5.90 (+0.97)K% 19.8% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.75%	—	×0.880	17.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.17%	—	×1.050	6.48%
HR / BF /BF	4.94%	÷0.866	×1.100	6.27%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 4.92 → 5.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAReading Fightin Phils · 75 IPFIP 2.79 → 3.18 (+0.39)K% 18.2% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.18%	—	×0.810	14.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.73%	—	×1.100	7.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.67%	÷1.164	×1.200	0.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 2.79 → 3.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 49 IPFIP 3.16 → 3.44 (+0.28)K% 15.1% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.12%	—	×0.880	13.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×1.050	6.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷0.954	×1.100	1.12%

Result: FIP 3.16 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ALakewood BlueClaws · 85 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.50 (+1.13)K% 27.8% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.78%	—	×0.740	20.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.41%	—	×1.180	8.74%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷0.854	×1.300	1.88%

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Clearwater Threshers · 38 IPFIP 2.31 → 2.96 (+0.65)K% 23.6% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.60%	—	×0.770	18.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.83%	—	×1.150	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.62%	÷1.058	×1.250	0.73%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.31 → 2.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ranger Suarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.1%	—	4.12	20.5%	12.8%	223	+0.49	—	—	—
Chris Narveson L 2011 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP	4.01	18.0%	9.2%	2.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	625	60
Wandy Rodriguez L 2010 · 3.37 FIP	31	SP	3.37	21.7%	7.9%	2.0%	.297	4.06	18.1%	11.6%	459	+0.69	3.37	1,572	60
Wei-Yin Chen L 2016 · 4.51 FIP	31	SP	4.51	19.2%	4.6%	4.5%	.299	4.37	19.6%	13.1%	235	-0.14	3.63	1,065	58
Tyler Anderson L 2021 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	19.1%	5.1%	3.9%	.283	3.96	19.0%	11.1%	499	-0.34	3.10	1,288	55
Mark Hendrickson L 2005 · 4.57 FIP	31	SP	4.57	11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	.320	4.19	14.8%	7.9%	421	-0.38	3.04	1,169	52
Brian Tallet L 2009 · 4.45 FIP	31	SP-	4.45	16.7%	9.8%	2.8%	.294	6.14	14.7%	5.2%	91	+1.69	2.59	443	50
Yohan Flande L 2017 · 3.18 FIP	31	SP	3.18	15.9%	6.4%	1.1%	.346	4.21	10.0%	-1.9%	23	+1.03	3.18	394	47
Andrew Albers L 2017 · 2.98 FIP	31	SP-	2.98	20.7%	4.5%	1.9%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	2.98	568	44
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	41
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	41
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	41
Joey Lucchesi L 2024 · 4.73 FIP	31	SP-	4.73	14.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.293	3.65	22.6%	15.8%	102	-1.08	3.12	817	40
Ryan Verdugo L 2017 · 3.36 FIP	30	SP-	3.36	22.7%	5.4%	2.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	153	40
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	40
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	39
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	39
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2018 · 2.79 FIP	31	SP	2.79	27.5%	4.3%	2.7%	.278	3.28	22.2%	17.8%	419	+0.49	2.45	1,069	39
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	38
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	38
Blaine Hardy L 2018 · 3.29 FIP	31	SW	3.29	21.6%	5.7%	2.4%	.268	5.40	18.1%	8.9%	113	+2.11	2.74	456	38

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.4	107	21.8%	7.5%	0.85	3.50
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*
Carlos Martinez ('21)	4.8	107	22.5%	9.1%	0.75	3.74
Andy McGaffigan ('81-'91, 10 WAR*)	4.2	104	22.6%*	8.2%*	0.87*	3.85*
Mike Marshall ('67-'81, 21 WAR*)	6.9	99	21.7%*	8.5%*	0.77*	3.60*