Ranger Suarez
P
Boston Red Sox
+2.5
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 217 lbs
MLB
Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 2.5 · 2026
ERA3.56
FIP3.55
xFIP3.80
SIERA4.31
K%23.1%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%16.6%
IP148
trajectory · 10 yrs
2.5peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1491.9
Whiff%
p1017.1%
K%
p2017.8%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
FB+6.0 (46%)
SI (28%)
CU (14%)
CT (20%)
CH-3.6 (19%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies | 6 | 4 | 28 | 99 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 13.7% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 0.65 | 2.58 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 22 | 22 | 123 | 485 | 128 | 35 | 5 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 1.4% | 2.27 | 3.29 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 22 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 24 | 139 | 571 | 96 | 38 | 7 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 1.3% | 3.04 | 3.48 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 44 | 7 | 87 | 367 | 74 | 20 | 14 | 19.1% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.26 | 4.42 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 20.25 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 39 | 12 | 106 | 418 | 107 | 30 | 4 | 25.6% | 7.2% | 0.9% | 1.36 | 2.36 | +3.5 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 29 | 29 | 155 | 662 | 129 | 58 | 15 | 19.5% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 3.65 | 3.77 | +2.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 25 | 25 | 134 | 572 | 124 | 50 | 13 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 3.57 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 27 | 27 | 151 | 626 | 145 | 40 | 14 | 23.2% | 6.4% | 2.0% | 3.46 | 3.07 | +3.8 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 30 | 174 | 714 | 175 | 43 | 14 | 23.2% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 3.00 | 2.95 | +4.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 18.3% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 108 | 35 | 12 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 3.28 | 3.48 | +2.5 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 137 | 579 | 119 | 40 | 14 | 20.6% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 3.46 | 3.58 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 123 | 520 | 105 | 36 | 12 | 20.3% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 3.84 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 110 | 464 | 91 | 33 | 11 | 19.6% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.98 | 4.08 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 78 | 30 | 11 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.21 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 16 | 16 | 86 | 364 | 66 | 27 | 10 | 18.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.35 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 62 | 22 | 9 | 19.5% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.23 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 52 | 20 | 8 | 18.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 37 | MLB | PHI | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 43 | 18 | 7 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 38 | MLB | PHI | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 35 | 16 | 6 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 253 | 183 | 1115 | 4600 | 946 | 337 | 90 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 3.17 | 3.36 | +24.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 33 | 200 | 825 | 170 | 60 | 16 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 3.17 | 3.36 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ranger Suarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.70 | 21.6% | 6.6% | 2.2% | — | 4.07 | 19.7% | 12.6% | 331 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Jo-Jo Reyes L 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.51 | 14.9% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .326 | 3.34 | 16.3% | 10.7% | 90 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 240 | 52 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.85 | 17.6% | 8.5% | 2.1% | .297 | 5.60 | 5.6% | -6.9% | 28 | +1.75 | 3.85 | 162 | 52 |
| John Danks L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.92 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 22 | +1.69 | 4.23 | 200 | 51 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.70 | 20.3% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .268 | 4.46 | 21.6% | 12.9% | 148 | +0.76 | 3.70 | 395 | 51 |
| Brad Mills L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.66 | 14.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .294 | 6.15 | 14.4% | 2.6% | 44 | +1.49 | 4.66 | 182 | 50 |
| Anthony Vasquez L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.13 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | 5.33 | 15.9% | 7.8% | 171 | +1.20 | 4.01 | 642 | 49 |
| Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.87 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | .288 | 4.35 | 19.3% | 13.2% | 290 | +0.48 | 3.60 | 549 | 49 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.79 | 16.3% | 7.4% | 2.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 412 | 49 |
| John Lannan L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.81 | 10.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | .354 | 4.85 | 8.2% | 0.5% | 132 | +1.04 | 3.81 | 284 | 49 |
| Scott Diamond L 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.45 | 316 | 48 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.63 | 14.3% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .297 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 6.8% | 220 | +0.90 | 3.45 | 512 | 47 |
| Wade LeBlanc L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.72 | 20.3% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 13.0% | 351 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 609 | 47 |
| Wade Miley L 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.79 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .328 | 3.89 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 288 | -0.90 | 3.34 | 1,167 | 47 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.73 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 2.9% | .324 | 3.32 | 22.5% | 14.4% | 229 | -0.41 | 2.87 | 1,555 | 46 |
| Frank Garces L 2025 · 4.70 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.70 | 15.0% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 306 | 46 |
| J.A. Happ L 2028 · 3.20 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.20 | 21.1% | 5.7% | 2.1% | .308 | 3.75 | 23.1% | 15.9% | 518 | +0.55 | 3.20 | 1,053 | 46 |
| Jaime García L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.24 | 20.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .299 | 4.30 | 19.4% | 9.7% | 239 | +0.06 | 2.96 | 540 | 46 |
| Duane Below L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.56 | 14.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 189 | 46 |
| Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SP | 3.48 | 22.4% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.82 | 21.4% | 11.8% | 479 | +0.34 | 2.84 | 864 | 46 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.05 | 20.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | .253 | 4.16 | 23.2% | 16.0% | 424 | +0.11 | 2.38 | 807 | 45 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2018
Service 6.651 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $26M | +2.5 | $20M | -$6M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $26M | +1.9 | $16M | -$10M |
| 2028 | Ext / FA-deal | $26M | +1.5 | $13M | -$13M |
| 2029 | Ext / FA-deal | $26M | +1.2 | $10M | -$16M |
| 2030 | Ext / FA-deal | $26M | +0.8 | $4M | -$22M |
| Totals | $130M | $62M | -$68M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2031 | MUTUAL OPT | $2031.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2032 | MUTUAL OPT | $35.0M / $10.0M buyout | DECLINE |
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$68M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$68M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.