Ranger Suarez P Boston Red Sox
Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 217 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 3.2 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)
2026 ROS PROJECTION91 act + 61 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 6777vR 86
ERA2.82
FIP2.90
K%24.6%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%18.0%
ROS IP61
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP
K: +4.4 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+4KBB: +4.4 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+4BBCONTACT: +16.6 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+17CONTACTSTAM: +20.6 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+21STAMTotal WAR: +4.85 (152 IP)+4.9WAR
0.02.04.02.03.02.41.81.3-$31M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—55
STUF5055
CTRL6060
CMD6060
K†5555
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p4224.2%
K%
p7025.8%
xwOBA vs
p800.283
FB+6.0 (45%)
SL (2%)
SI (24%)
CU (17%)
CT (21%)
CH-3.6 (14%)
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   6.651 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2030
First FA Year   2027
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSExt$10M+2.0$16M+$5M
2027Ext$26M+3.0$22M-$1M
2028Ext$26M+2.4$16M-$5M
2029Ext$26M+1.8$11M-$7M
2030Ext$26M+1.3$8M-$9M
Totals $114M $74M -$17M
Options · projected decision
2031MUTUAL OPT$26.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2032MUTUAL OPT$35.0M / $10.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
201519ROKGCL Phillies642899204067%4.613.7%5.1%8.7%0.0%0.652.58—
201519ROKGCL Phillies642899204067%4.620.2%4.0%16.2%0.0%0.652.09—
201721MIX2 levels2222123485128355100%5.619.8%8.4%11.3%1.7%2.273.46—
201721MIX2 levels2222123485128355100%5.626.4%7.2%19.2%1.0%2.272.40—
201822MIX3 levels25241395719638796%5.614.4%7.1%7.2%1.2%3.043.47+3.1
201822MIX3 levels25241395719638796%5.616.8%6.7%10.2%1.2%3.043.19+3.6
201923MIX2 levels4478736774201416%2.019.1%5.6%13.5%4.9%4.264.86+0.3
201923MIX2 levels4478736774201416%2.020.2%5.4%14.7%3.8%4.264.18+0.9
202024MLBPhiladelphia Phillies304261410%1.33.8%15.4%-11.5%3.8%20.256.84-0.1
202024MLBPhiladelphia Phillies304261410%1.33.8%15.4%-11.5%3.8%20.258.85-0.2
202125MLBPhiladelphia Phillies391210641810730431%2.725.6%7.2%18.4%0.9%1.362.35+3.8
202125MLBPhiladelphia Phillies391210641810730431%2.725.6%7.2%18.4%1.0%1.362.42+3.7
202226MLBPhiladelphia Phillies29291556621295815100%5.419.5%8.8%10.7%2.2%3.653.77+3.0
202226MLBPhiladelphia Phillies29291556621295815100%5.419.5%8.8%10.7%2.3%3.653.81+2.9
202327MIX3 levels25251345721245013100%5.422.0%8.9%13.1%2.3%3.963.64+2.8
202327MIX3 levels25251345721245013100%5.421.7%8.7%12.9%2.3%3.963.63+2.8
202428MLBPhiladelphia Phillies27271516261454014100%5.623.2%6.4%16.8%2.2%3.463.14+4.0
202428MLBPhiladelphia Phillies27271516261454014100%5.623.2%6.4%16.8%2.2%3.463.18+3.9
202529MIX3 levels30301747141754314100%5.823.2%5.8%17.4%2.1%3.003.02+4.8
202529MIX3 levels30301747141754314100%5.824.5%6.0%18.5%2.0%3.002.88+5.1
▸ 2026 Season
202630MLBBoston Red Sox17179137697265100%5.425.8%6.9%18.9%1.3%3.152.53+2.9
ROS30MLBBOS10106125763175100%6.124.6%6.6%18.0%1.9%2.822.90+1.2
ROS30MLBBOS10106125863175100%6.124.6%6.6%18.0%1.9%2.822.90+1.2
2026 TOT30MLBBOS——1526331604310——25.3%6.8%18.5%1.6%3.022.67+4.9
2026 FULL30MLBBOS——1526431604310——24.9%6.7%18.2%1.5%3.022.69+4.8
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202731MLBBOS23231385811364112100%6.023.5%7.0%16.5%2.1%3.423.54+3.0
202832MLBBOS21211275371224013100%6.122.7%7.4%15.3%2.4%3.653.80+2.4
202933MLBBOS19191174931083913100%6.121.8%7.8%14.0%2.6%3.914.08+1.8
203034MLBBOS1818106448943713100%5.920.9%8.3%12.6%2.9%4.194.38+1.3
203135MLBBOS161695402803613100%6.020.0%8.9%11.1%3.3%4.514.72+0.6
203236MLBBOS141484356673413100%6.018.9%9.5%9.4%3.6%4.855.08-0.0
203337MLBBOS121274311622913100%6.119.8%9.3%10.5%4.1%5.075.21-0.3
202731MLBBOS23231385831374112100%6.023.5%7.0%16.5%2.1%3.433.55+3.0
202832MLBBOS21211275361224013100%6.022.7%7.4%15.3%2.4%3.663.81+2.4
202933MLBBOS20201174941083913100%5.821.8%7.8%14.0%2.6%3.924.09+1.8
203034MLBBOS1818106448943713100%5.920.9%8.3%12.6%2.9%4.204.39+1.3
203135MLBBOS161695401803613100%5.920.0%8.9%11.1%3.3%4.524.73+0.6
203236MLBBOS141484355673413100%6.018.9%9.5%9.4%3.7%4.865.09-0.0
203337MLBBOS121274312622913100%6.219.8%9.3%10.5%4.1%5.085.22-0.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—33927116556958153453117080%4.922.0%7.6%14.4%2.4%3.683.55+35.9
/ 200 IP—4133200841185642180%4.922.0%7.6%14.4%2.4%3.683.55+4.3
Career—2671971192491610323589974%4.521.0%7.3%13.7%2.0%3.143.36+28.5
/ 200 IP—4533200825173601774%4.521.0%7.3%13.7%2.0%3.143.36+4.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Ranger Suarez (OGILVIE) —— 3.67 22.2%6.3%2.3%— 3.79 22.7%15.3%381 +0.12 ———
Wade LeBlanc L 2027 · 3.53 FIP 31 SP- 3.53 20.3%5.3%2.7%.289 4.64 18.7%13.0%351 +1.11 3.53 609 47
J.A. Happ L 2028 · 3.28 FIP 32 SP 3.28 21.1%5.7%2.2%.308 3.72 23.1%15.9%518 +0.44 3.28 1,053 46
Francisco Liriano L 2027 · 3.07 FIP 31 SP 3.07 26.5%8.9%2.0%.289 4.65 20.7%8.8%394 +1.58 3.07 650 45
Scott Kazmir L 2027 · 3.72 FIP 31 SP 3.72 20.3%7.7%2.5%.268 4.46 21.6%12.9%148 +0.74 3.72 395 45
Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.60 FIP 30 SP 3.60 20.4%6.2%2.6%.324 3.35 22.5%14.4%229 -0.25 2.90 1,596 44
Gio Gonzalez L 2026 · 3.52 FIP 30 SP 3.52 22.4%7.5%2.5%.309 3.87 21.4%11.8%479 +0.35 2.90 864 44
James Paxton L 2026 · 3.57 FIP 30 SP 3.57 29.4%8.7%3.4%.312 3.91 28.9%21.1%20 +0.34 2.48 924 44
Jaime García L 2026 · 4.25 FIP 30 SP 4.25 20.2%7.3%3.5%.299 4.23 19.4%9.7%239 -0.02 2.89 540 43
Shota Imanaga L 2026 · 3.58 FIP 30 SP 3.58 25.1%4.0%3.8%.262 4.76 22.1%16.8%253 +1.18 3.58 426 42
Wei-Yin Chen L 2026 · 3.93 FIP 30 SP 3.93 19.3%5.2%3.3%.288 4.32 19.3%13.2%290 +0.39 3.68 549 42
Jon Lester L 2027 · 2.74 FIP 31 SP 2.74 25.0%5.7%1.9%.299 3.75 22.7%15.3%565 +1.01 2.74 1,144 42
Clayton Kershaw L 2026 · 3.17 FIP 30 SP 3.17 23.8%4.5%2.8%.272 3.46 27.9%23.0%358 +0.29 1.52 1,477 42
Jo-Jo Reyes L 2026 · 3.53 FIP 30 SP 3.53 14.9%6.4%1.6%.326 3.42 16.3%10.7%90 -0.11 3.06 240 42
Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.07 FIP 30 SP- 3.07 21.6%4.5%2.2%.297 8.89 18.4%13.6%53 +5.82 2.95 681 41
Mike Minor L 2026 · 4.18 FIP 30 SP 4.18 20.6%5.8%3.8%.253 4.18 23.2%16.0%424 +0.00 2.42 807 41
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2026 · 4.63 FIP 30 SP 4.63 21.4%7.8%4.3%.294 2.93 24.5%20.5%332 -1.70 2.87 725 41
Ryan Verdugo L 2026 · 3.41 FIP 30 SP- 3.41 22.7%5.4%2.8%.333 — ——— — 3.41 153 41
Cole Hamels L 2027 · 3.22 FIP 31 SP 3.22 24.4%6.7%2.4%.288 4.02 21.7%13.2%539 +0.80 3.22 893 40
Ryan Bollinger L 2023 · 3.53 FIP 27 SP 3.53 17.1%7.5%1.7%.290 — ——— — 3.53 112 39
Patrick Corbin L 2026 · 3.30 FIP 30 SP 3.30 28.5%8.1%2.9%.287 4.71 18.8%11.8%390 +1.41 2.20 1,825 39

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION811021.5%7.9%1.084.03
Alex Wood ('24)911121.6%7.0%0.963.98
Danny Duffy ('21)712421.7%8.1%1.204.04
Garrett Richards ('22)78221.2%9.0%0.983.95
Jordan Montgomery ('24)712421.4%6.9%1.074.01
Jhoulys Chacín ('22)710819.4%9.3%1.134.51
Rich Hill ('23)910425.0%8.0%1.123.65