Luis Lara — OGILVIE

Luis LaraCF Nashville Sounds

Age 21 S/R 5'7" / 169 lbs AAA HR -4% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION364 act + 242 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†98

AVG/OBP/SLG.261 / .341 / .359

PA242

HR3

SB15

K%18

BB%9

BABIP312

ISO98

MLB%34%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT51

xwOBA

900.383

POWER37

Avg EV

2287.0

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED61

Sprint

6027.9

DEFENSE66

scouting grade only

Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.4M	+0.5	$2M	+$2M
2027	Ext	$2M	+3.2	$24M	+$22M
2028	Ext	$4M	+3.7	$25M	+$23M
2029	Ext	$4M	+4.0	$25M	+$22M
2030	Ext	$6M	+4.0	$24M	+$20M
2031	Ext	$7M	+4.1	$22M	+$18M
2032	Ext	$8M	+4.1	$21M	+$17M
Totals		$30M		$144M	+$123M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	229	208	39	8	3	1	13	44	5	7	7	188	252	269	521	82	229	19	6	233	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	229	200	52	11	4	2	21	28	5	7	7	260	345	385	730	125	289	12	9	326	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	397	363	79	9	2	2	27	89	5	30	10	218	281	270	551	52	281	22	7	249	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	A	2 teams	—	397	343	98	13	3	2	44	61	5	30	10	286	372	359	731	73	340	15	11	334	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	2 teams	—	589	530	108	19	2	4	35	127	18	55	19	204	276	270	546	66	257	22	6	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	2 teams	—	589	511	126	23	3	5	53	94	18	55	19	247	338	333	671	86	289	16	9	307	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	612	541	118	23	2	1	58	148	8	44	7	218	303	274	577	55	295	24	9	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	612	513	132	32	3	2	86	99	8	44	7	257	372	343	715	86	312	16	14	330	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	AAA	MIL	—	364	320	93	10	3	8	39	59	3	24	7	291	373	416	789	125	335	16	11	347	124	+10	+2	+0	+1	+10	2.4
YTD	21	AAA	MIL	—	364	301	96	11	3	9	58	50	3	24	7	319	434	465	899	146	358	14	16	402	166	+27	+2	+0	+1	+10	4.2
ROS	21	AAA	MIL	34%	242	214	56	8	2	3	23	43	3	15	4	261	341	359	699	98	305	18	9	314	98	-0	+1	+3	+1	+7	1.2
ROS	21	MLB	MIL	34%	83	74	20	3	1	1	8	15	1	5	1	270	349	378	728	108	303	18	10	303	90	-1	+1	+1	+0	+2	0.3
FULL	21	AAA	MIL	—	447	394	113	13	4	9	47	74	4	29	8	287	369	409	777	122	333	17	11	339	118	+9	+3	+1	+2	+13	2.7
TOT	21	AAA	MIL	—	606	534	149	18	5	11	62	102	6	39	11	279	360	393	753	114	326	17	10	334	114	+9	+3	+3	+2	+17	3.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIL	57%	660	584	150	21	4	10	63	116	8	37	10	257	337	358	695	101	301	18	10	313	98	-2	+3	+7	+2	+19	3.1
2028	23	MLB	MIL	67%	660	583	152	22	4	12	64	116	8	37	10	261	342	374	716	113	302	18	10	321	104	+3	+3	+7	+2	+19	3.5
2029	24	MLB	MIL	69%	660	583	152	22	4	13	64	115	8	37	10	261	342	379	721	118	302	17	10	326	107	+5	+3	+7	+2	+19	3.8
2030	25	MLB	MIL	70%	655	578	152	22	4	14	64	114	8	36	10	263	345	388	732	125	302	17	10	328	109	+7	+3	+7	+2	+19	3.9
2031	26	MLB	MIL	70%	648	571	150	22	4	14	64	113	8	36	10	263	345	389	734	126	302	17	10	329	110	+7	+3	+7	+2	+18	3.9
2032	27	MLB	MIL	69%	643	566	148	21	4	14	64	112	8	36	9	261	345	387	732	125	302	17	10	329	110	+7	+4	+7	+2	+18	3.9
2033	28	MLB	MIL	69%	635	559	146	21	4	14	64	112	7	33	9	261	344	388	733	127	302	18	10	328	109	+7	+3	+6	+2	+18	3.7
2034	29	MLB	MIL	67%	623	548	141	20	3	13	63	111	7	31	8	257	341	376	717	119	301	18	10	327	108	+6	+3	+5	+2	+18	3.5
2035	30	MLB	MIL	66%	611	537	138	20	3	12	62	110	7	27	7	257	342	372	714	115	300	18	10	324	106	+4	+3	+5	+2	+17	3.2
2036	31	MLB	MIL	65%	596	524	134	19	3	12	60	110	7	23	6	256	340	372	712	116	298	18	10	320	103	+2	+2	+4	+2	+17	2.8
2037	32	MLB	MIL	65%	577	508	128	18	3	11	58	108	6	18	5	252	336	364	700	112	296	19	10	315	99	-1	+2	+3	+2	+16	2.3
2038	33	MLB	MIL	65%	547	481	119	16	3	10	55	106	6	14	4	247	332	356	688	108	292	19	10	309	94	-4	+1	+2	+2	+15	1.7
2039	34	MLB	MIL	60%	499	441	104	13	2	8	50	99	5	9	2	236	321	329	649	93	288	20	10	300	88	-7	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.1
2027	22	MLB	MIL	57%	377	334	84	12	2	5	36	67	4	21	6	251	332	344	676	93	299	18	10	303	90	-4	+2	+4	+1	+11	1.4
2028	23	MLB	MIL	67%	439	389	100	14	3	8	42	77	5	24	6	257	337	370	707	113	299	18	10	310	96	-2	+2	+5	+2	+12	1.9
2029	24	MLB	MIL	69%	454	402	104	15	3	9	44	79	5	25	7	259	339	378	717	119	300	17	10	315	99	-1	+2	+5	+2	+13	2.2
2030	25	MLB	MIL	70%	458	405	106	15	3	10	45	80	5	25	7	262	343	388	731	126	300	17	10	317	101	+0	+2	+5	+2	+13	2.3
2031	26	MLB	MIL	70%	456	403	105	15	3	10	45	79	5	25	7	261	342	387	729	127	300	17	10	318	102	+1	+2	+5	+2	+13	2.3
2032	27	MLB	MIL	69%	445	392	102	15	3	9	45	78	5	25	7	260	344	383	727	122	300	18	10	318	102	+1	+2	+5	+2	+13	2.3
2033	28	MLB	MIL	69%	436	384	98	14	2	9	44	77	5	23	6	255	339	372	712	117	299	18	10	317	101	+1	+2	+4	+2	+12	2.1
2034	29	MLB	MIL	67%	416	366	94	13	2	9	42	74	5	20	5	257	341	377	718	120	299	18	10	316	100	-0	+2	+4	+1	+12	1.9
2035	30	MLB	MIL	66%	402	353	90	13	2	8	41	73	5	18	5	255	341	371	712	116	298	18	10	313	98	-1	+2	+3	+1	+11	1.7
2036	31	MLB	MIL	65%	388	342	86	12	2	7	39	71	4	15	4	251	335	360	695	108	296	18	10	309	95	-2	+1	+2	+1	+11	1.4
2037	32	MLB	MIL	65%	374	329	82	11	2	7	38	70	4	12	3	249	334	359	693	109	293	19	10	305	91	-4	+1	+2	+1	+11	1.1
2038	33	MLB	MIL	65%	353	310	76	10	2	6	36	68	4	9	2	245	331	348	680	103	290	19	10	298	87	-5	+1	+1	+1	+10	0.8
2039	34	MLB	MIL	60%	300	264	62	8	1	5	30	60	3	5	1	235	320	330	649	95	285	20	10	291	81	-7	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5381	4747	1209	170	31	103	535	968	60	252	67	255	338	369	706	114	299	18	10	311	96	-24	+24	+46	+19	+152	22.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	146	21	4	12	65	117	7	30	8	255	338	368	706	113	300	18	10	311	96	-3	+3	+6	+2	+18	2.7
Career	—			—	10083	8919	2214	324	56	168	951	1893	132	525	147	248	330	354	683	105	296	19	9	309	94	-65	+46	+71	+36	+286	38.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	143	21	4	11	61	122	9	34	9	249	331	357	687	108	296	19	9	309	94	-4	+3	+5	+2	+18	2.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	—	229	200	52	11	4	2	21	28	5	7	7	260	345	385	730	125	289	12	9	326	108	+2	-1	—	—	+6	0.7
2023	18	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	79	69	20	2	2	0	5	15	2	8	1	290	346	377	723	87	364	19	6	319	103	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	318	274	78	11	1	2	39	46	3	22	9	285	379	354	733	69	335	14	12	337	116	+6	+1	—	—	+9	1.6
2024	19	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	489	425	104	19	2	4	41	77	17	45	14	245	335	327	662	82	287	16	8	304	91	-5	+3	—	—	+14	1.2
2024	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	100	86	22	4	1	1	12	17	1	10	5	256	354	360	714	105	304	17	12	324	106	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	612	513	132	32	3	2	86	99	8	44	7	257	372	343	715	86	312	16	14	330	111	+7	+6	—	—	+17	3.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Shane Victorinolast yr '15 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,145 PA	11	5,145	106	231	275	340	424	-1	+44	31.0	29.9
	/162	664	14	30	275	340	424	-0.2	+5.7	4.0	pk7: 29
#2Carlos Gómezlast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,227 PA	13	5,227	145	268	252	313	411	+11	+80	28.2	26.7
	/162	664	18	34	252	313	411	+1.4	+10.2	3.6	pk7: 25
#3B.J. Uptonlast yr '16 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,858 PA	12	5,858	164	300	243	321	402	+14	+17	24.5	24.5
	/162	664	19	34	243	321	402	+1.6	+2.0	2.8	pk7: 25
#4Julio Lugolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,290 PA	11	5,290	80	198	270	334	386	+31	+25	23.8	23.1
	/162	664	10	25	270	334	386	+3.9	+3.1	3.0	pk7: 22
#5Michael Bournlast yr '16 career totals — 10 seasons, 5,312 PA	10	5,312	36	340	266	330	358	+17	+56	22.1	21.6
	/162	664	4	42	266	330	358	+2.1	+7.0	2.8	pk7: 21
#6Whit Merrifieldlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,866 PA	9	4,866	94	218	280	328	413	+14	+7	22.2	21.5
	/162	664	13	30	280	328	413	+1.9	+0.9	3.0	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,408	105	254	257	336	373	+10	+61	21.3	18.0
	/162	664	13	31	257	336	373	+1.2	+7.5	2.6	pk7: 15

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Lara (OGILVIE)	21	47→51	35→37	60→61	53	279/360/393	114	326	11	39	17%	10%	114	+3.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	50→60	35→30	56→60	52	230/305/294	64	287	2	27	20%	9%	70	-0.3	235/323/292	57	302	2	27	20%	10%	78	+0.2	268/330/326	58	319	3	17	16%	7%	84	+0.3
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2011 · AA	21	47→57	39→45	58→60	49	225/283/310	85	269	6	29	18%	7%	65	-0.7	254/297/354	100	294	8	19	16%	6%	82	+0.5	267/306/366	100	305	8	16	15%	5%	85	+0.5
●Mallex Smith 2014 · A	21	47→57	37→45	58→65	48	221/294/290	68	289	5	34	24%	8%	65	-0.7	255/319/349	94	335	6	44	23%	8%	90	+1.0	270/333/370	100	351	5	52	23%	8%	97	+1.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	54	219/305/291	72	275	2	31	20%	10%	70	-0.3	206/278/275	69	280	3	16	25%	8%	54	-1.4	170/237/218	48	234	0	10	25%	7%	17	-1.1
✕Carlos Willoughby 2010 · A	21	52→42	35→40	62→60	54	238/328/306	68	295	2	30	18%	10%	84	+0.6	215/287/288	73	277	2	22	21%	8%	62	-0.9	202/273/272	69	263	1	20	21%	7%	48	-1.1
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	49	41→45	60→65	51	234/321/343	109	284	7	29	19%	8%	91	+1.1	235/310/360	125	296	12	18	23%	8%	91	+1.1	230/307/354	124	286	8	13	21%	9%	82	+0.1
✕Trevor Crowe 2007 · AA	23	52→55	39→45	57→55	51	244/309/336	92	304	5	29	21%	8%	82	+0.5	249/307/353	104	304	7	23	19%	7%	86	+0.8	252/310/358	106	305	7	23	18%	7%	86	+0.6
✕Rochest Cruz 2019 · A	20	49	37→40	61→65	54	226/303/299	73	269	4	34	16%	9%	71	-0.3	206/274/271	65	290	3	23	28%	7%	52	-1.6	144/214/156	12	235	0	30	35%	6%	-5	-1.2
●Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	51→61	35→40	57→65	46	237/287/297	60	301	2	26	21%	6%	63	-0.9	260/302/339	79	336	4	30	22%	5%	79	+0.3	273/340/354	81	349	3	41	21%	9%	96	+1.1
✕Vidal Bruján 2021 · AA	23	51→58	41→45	60→65	48	243/301/349	105	291	8	34	19%	7%	82	+0.5	223/280/337	114	267	11	36	20%	7%	71	-0.3	214/288/314	100	265	7	24	21%	8%	64	-0.3
●Luis Rengifo 2019 · AAA	22	49→55	42→55	57→55	47	235/295/353	118	286	8	25	21%	7%	81	+0.4	233/300/361	128	284	12	14	21%	8%	85	+0.7	273/324/436	163	306	19	16	17%	6%	113	+2.0
●Elvis Andrus 2009 · AA	20	52→61	37→50	55→60	43	245/293/318	73	319	5	32	24%	6%	71	-0.3	258/320/332	74	307	4	32	16%	8%	85	+0.7	277/330/410	133	307	11	23	13%	7%	107	+2.4
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	51→60	39→40	61→65	43	238/293/326	89	318	5	34	26%	6%	73	-0.1	239/307/330	91	313	4	33	23%	8%	80	+0.4	262/328/346	84	335	4	54	21%	8%	89	+0.7
✕Alexi Casilla 2006 · AAA	22	56→63	37→40	58→60	48	264/314/337	72	303	5	32	14%	6%	84	+0.6	262/313/332	70	305	4	29	14%	6%	82	+0.5	261/315/327	66	301	4	27	14%	7%	79	+0.2
✕Eric Young Jr. 2007 · A	22	53→58	39→45	61→65	49	248/314/343	95	310	5	38	21%	8%	86	+0.8	253/313/353	100	320	6	42	21%	7%	89	+0.9	257/320/359	101	324	6	48	21%	7%	88	+0.9
✕Jesus Galindo 2013 · A	22	49→52	35→40	60→65	47	229/292/293	65	289	2	35	21%	7%	64	-0.8	233/283/301	68	319	3	30	26%	5%	62	-0.9	233/282/296	62	323	2	31	27%	5%	56	-0.9
✕Adenson Chourio 2008 · A	22	51	34→30	56→60	51	237/314/290	53	294	2	31	19%	8%	73	-0.1	229/289/269	40	306	1	26	23%	7%	56	-1.3	220/271/239	20	305	0	28	26%	6%	37	-1.1
✕Manuel Guzman 2016 · A	21	48	35→45	52→55	50	223/289/282	59	281	2	20	20%	8%	60	-1.0	231/296/306	75	281	5	12	18%	8%	69	-0.4	245/313/324	79	285	5	10	15%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Ryan Brett 2013 · A	21	51→58	39→45	59→60	44	241/287/331	90	299	5	27	21%	6%	72	-0.2	249/289/356	107	304	8	23	20%	5%	79	+0.3	249/285/358	109	299	9	21	19%	4%	74	-0.0
●Ender Inciarte 2014 · AA	23	52→62	37→45	59→60	46	244/285/319	75	279	4	29	14%	5%	67	-0.5	269/311/358	89	305	6	24	13%	6%	89	+0.9	295/343/395	101	328	7	19	12%	6%	107	+2.3