Luis Lara — OGILVIE

Luis LaraCF Nashville Sounds

Age 21 S/R 5'7" / 169 lbs AAA BB +10%HR +7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 3.4 · 2031

wRC+†101

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .294 / .293

PA320

HR2

SB25

K%21

BB%8

MLB%10%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

46↗51

PWR

30↗32

SPD

60↗62

FLD

59↗67

EYE

50↘49

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.7peak

2031

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.3	$20M	+$19M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+2.9	$25M	+$25M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+3.2	$29M	+$28M
2031	Arb-3	$7M	+3.4	$32M	+$25M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+3.4	$32M	+$21M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$16M	+3.2	$31M	+$15M
Totals		$37M		$169M	+$132M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	229	208	39	8	3	1	13	42	5	7	7	.188	.252	.269	.521	.082	.226	18	6	.233	37	-16	-1	+0	+1	+6	-1.1
2023	18	A	2 teams	397	362	85	10	2	2	28	86	5	30	10	.235	.299	.290	.589	.055	.301	22	7	.262	59	-19	+2	+0	+1	+11	-0.4
2024	19	A+	2 teams	589	530	112	19	1	4	35	119	18	55	19	.211	.283	.274	.557	.062	.262	20	6	.252	51	-33	+3	+0	+2	+17	-1.1
2025	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	612	541	123	28	3	2	58	135	8	44	7	.227	.311	.301	.613	.074	.296	22	9	.274	68	-22	+6	+0	+2	+17	0.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	21	AAA	Nashville Sounds	96	85	28	3	1	3	10	17	1	11	3	.329	.406	.494	.900	.165	.385	18	10	.368	140	+4	+1	+0	+0	+3	0.9
ROS	21	MLB	MIL	224	200	47	8	1	2	19	46	3	14	3	.235	.311	.315	.626	.080	.300	21	8	.295	84	-4	+2	+2	+1	+6	0.7
TOT	21	MLB	MIL	320	285	75	11	2	5	29	63	4	25	6	.263	.340	.368	.708	.105	.321	20	9	.317	101	+0	+3	+2	+1	+9	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	22	MLB 27%	MIL	612	546	131	24	3	6	52	124	9	38	9	.240	.316	.328	.644	.088	.296	20	8	.292	81	-13	+4	+6	+2	+17	1.7
2028	23	MLB 48%	MIL	655	583	141	25	3	9	57	131	10	40	10	.242	.320	.341	.661	.099	.296	20	9	.301	89	-8	+4	+6	+2	+19	2.3
2029	24	MLB 62%	MIL	674	598	146	26	3	11	61	134	10	40	9	.244	.324	.353	.677	.109	.297	20	9	.308	94	-4	+4	+7	+2	+19	2.9
2030	25	MLB 79%	MIL	687	609	151	27	4	12	63	136	10	40	9	.248	.328	.365	.693	.117	.298	20	9	.313	98	-2	+4	+7	+2	+19	3.2
2031	26	MLB 94%	MIL	695	615	153	27	4	13	65	137	10	39	9	.249	.330	.369	.700	.120	.298	20	9	.316	100	-0	+4	+7	+2	+20	3.4
2032	27	MLB	MIL	695	614	152	27	3	13	66	138	10	38	9	.248	.330	.365	.695	.117	.298	20	9	.316	100	-0	+4	+7	+2	+20	3.4
2033	28	MLB	MIL	691	610	151	27	3	13	66	139	10	36	8	.248	.331	.366	.696	.118	.298	20	10	.315	99	-1	+4	+6	+2	+20	3.2
2034	29	MLB	MIL	681	601	147	26	3	12	65	139	10	34	7	.245	.328	.358	.686	.113	.297	20	10	.313	97	-2	+4	+5	+2	+19	3.0
2035	30	MLB	MIL	670	591	144	25	3	12	64	139	10	31	6	.244	.328	.357	.685	.113	.296	21	10	.310	95	-4	+4	+4	+2	+19	2.6
2036	31	MLB	MIL	656	579	139	24	3	11	63	138	9	27	5	.240	.324	.349	.673	.109	.295	21	10	.306	92	-6	+3	+4	+2	+19	2.3
2037	32	MLB	MIL	638	563	133	23	3	10	61	138	9	23	4	.236	.321	.341	.662	.105	.294	22	10	.301	89	-8	+3	+3	+2	+18	1.8
2038	33	MLB	MIL	608	537	126	22	3	9	58	136	8	20	3	.235	.318	.337	.655	.102	.293	22	10	.296	85	-10	+3	+2	+2	+17	1.4
2039	34	MLB	MIL	560	495	112	19	2	7	53	130	7	16	2	.226	.310	.315	.625	.089	.291	23	9	.290	80	-13	+2	+1	+2	+16	0.8
2040	35	MLB	MIL	502	443	99	17	2	6	47	121	7	14	1	.223	.308	.312	.619	.088	.289	24	9	.283	75	-14	+2	-1	+2	+14	0.3
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			11075	9825	2331	412	52	155	994	2308	168	586	137	.237	.318	.337	.655	.100	.293	21	9	.297	86	-179	+62	+65	+40	+314	30.8
/ 162G	—			650	577	136	24	3	9	58	135	10	34	8	.236	.316	.334	.651	.099	.291	21	9	.297	86	-11	+4	+4	+2	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL Brewers 1	229	200	52	11	4	2	21	28	5	7	7	.260	.345	.385	.730	.125	.289	12	9	.326	108	+2	-1	—	—	+6	0.7
2023	18	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	79	69	20	2	2	0	5	15	2	8	1	.290	.346	.377	.723	.087	.364	19	6	.319	103	+0	+1	—	—	+2	0.4
2023	18	A	Carolina Mudcats	318	274	78	11	1	2	39	46	3	22	9	.285	.379	.354	.733	.069	.335	14	12	.337	116	+6	+1	—	—	+9	1.6
2024	19	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	489	425	104	19	2	4	41	77	17	45	14	.245	.335	.327	.662	.082	.287	16	8	.304	91	-5	+3	—	—	+14	1.2
2024	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	100	86	22	4	1	1	12	17	1	10	5	.256	.354	.360	.714	.105	.304	17	12	.324	106	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.4
2025	20	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	612	513	132	32	3	2	86	99	8	44	7	.257	.372	.343	.715	.086	.312	16	14	.330	111	+7	+6	—	—	+17	3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Lara (OGILVIE)	21	46→51	30→32	60→62	49	.219/.294/.293	.074	.280	2	16	21%	8%	67	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	48→58	35→30	57→60	52	.223/.296/.286	.062	.272	2	27	18%	8%	65	-0.7	.231/.318/.286	.055	.296	2	27	20%	10%	74	-0.1	.238/.316/.298	.060	.299	3	17	20%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Jesus Galindo 2012 · A	21	44→51	34→30	58→65	50	.204/.292/.256	.052	.285	1	29	26%	10%	56	-1.3	.223/.277/.282	.059	.299	2	34	24%	6%	54	-1.4	.229/.279/.292	.063	.310	2	38	25%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Randy Ventura 2017 · A	20	50→55	35→30	58→60	49	.235/.292/.294	.059	.288	2	27	18%	7%	64	-0.8	.235/.279/.278	.043	.320	2	20	25%	6%	53	-1.5	.229/.273/.258	.028	.322	1	19	27%	5%	43	-1.5
✕Adenson Chourio 2008 · A	22	51	34→30	56→60	50	.233/.309/.285	.052	.293	2	31	20%	8%	70	-0.3	.230/.290/.270	.040	.303	1	27	23%	7%	57	-1.2	.217/.267/.237	.020	.299	0	28	26%	5%	35	-1.2
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	47	36→40	59→65	53	.217/.300/.288	.072	.271	2	30	20%	10%	67	-0.5	.206/.280/.274	.068	.278	2	17	24%	8%	55	-1.4	.170/.237/.218	.048	.234	0	10	25%	7%	17	-1.1
✕Nasim Nuñez 2022 · A	21	45→50	34→30	57→65	49	.205/.285/.252	.047	.291	2	31	28%	10%	52	-1.6	.211/.298/.268	.057	.306	3	41	28%	11%	62	-0.9	.208/.292/.268	.060	.292	5	52	28%	10%	56	-1.1
✕Jenner Emeterio 2014 · A	21	45	36→30	54→60	51	.210/.290/.269	.060	.280	4	23	25%	10%	59	-1.1	.222/.308/.288	.066	.293	2	21	22%	10%	71	-0.3	.235/.336/.301	.066	.302	0	28	19%	12%	85	+0.3
✕Emilio Bonifácio 2006 · A	21	51→61	35→40	56→65	47	.238/.290/.299	.060	.297	2	25	20%	7%	64	-0.8	.259/.301/.338	.079	.333	4	30	22%	6%	79	+0.3	.269/.309/.349	.080	.345	3	31	22%	5%	81	+0.4
●Mallex Smith 2014 · A	21	49→59	37→45	58→65	48	.230/.300/.300	.070	.295	5	33	23%	8%	70	-0.3	.257/.321/.348	.091	.334	5	44	23%	8%	90	+1.0	.272/.334/.371	.099	.351	5	52	22%	8%	98	+1.2
✕Shawn O'Malley 2011 · AA	23	46→56	34→40	56→60	46	.212/.292/.268	.056	.290	2	26	25%	8%	59	-1.1	.228/.293/.297	.069	.297	3	25	22%	7%	66	-0.6	.259/.321/.357	.098	.322	5	23	20%	7%	89	+0.6
●Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→54	37→40	55→65	53	.217/.311/.293	.076	.288	3	19	24%	10%	74	-0.1	.194/.278/.275	.081	.289	5	10	31%	10%	55	-1.4	.238/.354/.331	.093	.320	9	44	25%	14%	100	+1.2
✕Everth Cabrera 2009 · A	22	48→58	38→40	60→65	43	.228/.283/.312	.085	.304	5	32	26%	6%	66	-0.6	.238/.305/.329	.091	.310	4	33	22%	8%	79	+0.3	.260/.326/.339	.079	.330	3	54	20%	8%	86	+0.5
✕Marcus Sanders 2007 · A	21	46→52	37→30	59→60	47	.216/.285/.286	.070	.286	4	31	25%	8%	59	-1.1	.214/.281/.284	.070	.283	3	24	23%	8%	57	-1.2	.218/.288/.279	.061	.284	0	28	21%	8%	56	-0.8
✕Carlos Willoughby 2010 · A	21	51→41	35→40	61→60	54	.236/.326/.303	.066	.294	2	29	19%	9%	82	+0.5	.214/.285/.285	.071	.275	2	22	21%	7%	59	-1.1	.197/.262/.260	.063	.255	1	20	22%	7%	40	-1.4
✕Tyler Pastornicky 2011 · AA	21	48→58	38→45	58→60	49	.226/.282/.309	.083	.269	5	30	18%	7%	64	-0.8	.254/.296/.349	.095	.295	7	20	16%	6%	80	+0.4	.267/.306/.362	.094	.306	7	16	15%	5%	83	+0.4
✕Leury García 2013 · AA	22	50→58	37→45	60	38	.235/.267/.311	.075	.314	3	28	26%	4%	57	-1.2	.229/.266/.311	.082	.316	5	30	28%	4%	56	-1.3	.272/.310/.392	.120	.338	12	22	22%	4%	95	+0.8
✕Francisco Aponte 2012 · A	21	50	35→30	52→60	53	.232/.314/.291	.059	.288	1	21	18%	9%	74	-0.1	.209/.262/.274	.065	.264	2	12	20%	6%	46	-2.0	.194/.230/.249	.054	.240	0	10	18%	4%	23	-1.3
✕Randy Romero 2021 · A	21	50	37→40	59→60	46	.232/.275/.308	.075	.266	3	22	14%	5%	59	-1.1	.205/.248/.269	.064	.274	3	17	25%	5%	39	-2.5	.178/.217/.223	.045	.246	1	22	27%	4%	12	-1.1
✕Dalton Pompey 2014 · A	21	44→54	40→45	57→55	46	.212/.280/.309	.097	.289	6	21	28%	8%	63	-0.8	.250/.309/.355	.105	.324	7	26	23%	7%	87	+0.8	.260/.318/.360	.100	.329	7	29	22%	7%	88	+0.8
✕Antoan Richardson 2006 · A	22	52→60	36→40	58→60	50	.238/.324/.300	.062	.326	3	27	26%	10%	81	+0.4	.240/.314/.306	.066	.318	3	34	23%	8%	77	+0.1	.260/.355/.324	.063	.348	1	30	22%	11%	95	+1.0

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)