Luis Lara

CF Nashville Sounds
Age 22 S/R 5'7" / 169 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.483 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANExtFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419A+/INTL2 orgs589.247/.338/.33355571—.224/.300/.293
202520AAMIL612.257/.372/.34324480—.240/.326/.310
202621AAAMIL346.321/.433/.470924126—.299/.381/.418
202621MLBMIL212.246/.314/.32513850.3
2027PROJ45% MLB22MLBMIL107.245/.324/.35325950.4
2028PROJ67% MLB23MLBMIL410.249/.329/.364818991.6
2029PROJ73% MLB24MLBMIL451.251/.331/.3729201022.0
Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 4.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractCONFIRMED
Control thru2032Service0.483First FA2033
2027Ext$2M2028Ext$4M2029Ext$4M2030Ext$6M2031Ext$7M2032Ext$8M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2026
Speed73
xwOBA37
Avg EV35
Barrel%13
Form.232/.298/.315 ▼▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .248/.324/.355
CompsDalton Pompey (age 22) · Maikel Garcia (age 23) · Luis Rengifo (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†95
AVG/OBP/SLG.245 / .324 / .353
PA107
HR2
SB5
K%20
BB%9
BABIP294
ISO116
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.4 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +2.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+2RUNFLD: +2.2 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +0.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +5.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +1.00+1.0WAR
0.01.32.60.51.62.02.12.12.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$53M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
560.256
POWER
Barrel%
133.4
Avg EV
3588.0
SPEED
Sprint
7328.4
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%23%▼▼26% over 77 PA (60d) · proj 19%
BB%8%▼▼5% over 77 PA (60d) · proj 9%
ISO.083▼.028 over 71 AB (60d) · proj .107
HR/BB1.5%▼0.0% over 52 BBE (60d) · proj 2.3%
BABIP.298·.288 over 52 BIP (60d) · proj .298
SLASH.232/.298/.315▼▼proj .248/.324/.355
Contract CONFIRMED · hand-curated extension
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.483 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$2M+0.5$2M-$0.2M
2028Ext$4M+1.6$12M+$9M
2029Ext$4M+2.0$14M+$10M
2030Ext$6M+2.1$13M+$9M
2031Ext$7M+2.1$12M+$8M
2032Ext$8M+2.1$12M+$7M
Totals $30M $65M +$43M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202217 ROKDSL Brewers 1 — 229200 521142 21285 77 260345385730 125289 129 326 28 — — — — — —
202318 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers — 7969 20220 5152 81 290346377723 87364 196 319 75 — — — — — —
202318 ACarolina Mudcats — 318274 781112 39463 229 285379354733 69335 1412 337 69 — — — — — —
202419 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers — 489425 1041924 417717 4514 245335327662 82287 168 304 64 — — — — — —
202419 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 10086 22411 12171 105 256354360714 105304 1712 324 106 — — — — — —
202520 AABiloxi Shuckers — 612513 1323232 86998 447 257372343715 86312 1614 330 80 — — — — — —
202621 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 212191 47821 18461 32 246314325639 79315 228 290 85 -4 -0 +0 +2 +5 0.3
202621 AAANashville Sounds — 346287 921039 54483 247 321433470904 150359 1416 404 126 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 212191 47821 18461 32 246314325639 79315 228 290 82 -4 -0 +0 +2 +5 0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202217 ROK MLEDSL Brewers 1 — 229206 34731 15355 77 165239243482 78183 157 209 28 — — — — — —
202318 A+ MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 7972 19220 4202 81 264321347668 83339 255 279 75 — — — — — —
202318 A MLECarolina Mudcats — 318286 67812 28633 229 234309290599 56294 209 270 69 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLEWisconsin Timber Rattlers — 489437 981723 309817 4514 224300293592 69270 206 263 64 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 612538 1292931 611308 447 240326310637 71304 2110 287 80 — — — — — —
202621 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 212191 48921 18461 32 251319335654 84315 228 294 85 -4 -0 +0 +2 +5 0.3
202621 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 346304 91937 37573 247 299381418799 118347 1611 354 126 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Brewers 1 — 229206 34731 15355 77 165239243482 78191 157 209 28 — — — — — —
202217 ROK RAWDSL Brewers 1 — 229200 521142 21285 77 260345385730 125289 129 326 28 — — — — — —
202318 A MLE2 teams — 397359 871032 31835 3010 242311304615 61308 218 272 70 — — — — — —
202318 A RAW2 teams — 397343 981332 44615 3010 286372359731 73340 1511 334 70 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLE2 teams — 589528 1172024 3711818 5519 222295290585 68274 206 263 64 — — — — — —
202419 A+ RAW2 teams — 589511 1262335 539418 5519 247338333671 86289 169 307 64 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 612538 1292931 611308 447 240326310637 71311 2110 287 80 — — — — — —
202520 AA RAWBiloxi Shuckers — 612513 1323232 86998 447 257372343715 86312 1614 330 80 — — — — — —
202621 AAA MLE2 teams — 558495 1391858 551034 279 281357386743 105339 1810 331 110 — — — — — —
202621 AAA RAW2 teams — 558478 13918510 72944 279 291388412800 121342 1713 360 110 — — — — — —
202217 ROK MLEDSL Brewers 1 — 229207 34731 15355 77 164239242480 77183 157 209 28 — — — — — —
202318 A MLE2 teams — 397358 871032 31835 3010 243311304616 61303 218 272 70 — — — — — —
202419 A+ MLE2 teams — 589529 1172024 3711818 5519 221295289584 68270 206 263 64 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 612538 1292931 611308 447 240326310637 71304 2110 287 80 — — — — — —
202621 AAA MLE2 teams — 558494 1391858 551034 279 281357387744 105335 1810 331 110 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A+ MLE2 teams — 589529 1172024 3711818 5519 221295289584 68270 206 263 64 — — — — — —
202520 AA MLEBiloxi Shuckers — 612538 1292931 611308 447 240326310637 71304 2110 287 80 — — — — — —
202621 AAA MLE2 teams — 558494 1391858 551034 279 281357387744 105335 1810 331 110 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEMIL 45% 648576 14222410 611266 296 248327355682 107298 199 309 95 -4 +3 +6 +2 +14 1.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202722 MLB CTXMIL 45% 10795 23312 10211 51 245324353677 107294 209 307 95 -1 +1 +1 +0 +2 0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEMIL 67% 614545 13721411 581176 286 252331367698 115299 199 315 99 -1 +3 +6 +2 +13 2.5
202924 MLB MLEMIL 73% 614544 13821412 591166 286 254334374707 120300 1910 319 102 +1 +3 +7 +2 +13 2.7
203025 MLB MLEMIL 77% 614544 13821412 591156 276 255335376711 122300 1910 320 103 +2 +3 +7 +2 +13 2.8
203126 MLB MLEMIL 78% 614543 13821412 601156 276 255335376711 122300 1910 320 103 +2 +3 +7 +2 +13 2.8
203227 MLB MLEMIL 77% 606536 13621412 591156 266 253334374708 120299 1910 319 102 +1 +3 +7 +2 +13 2.6
203328 MLB MLEMIL 77% 592524 13220411 581135 235 252332369701 117299 1910 316 100 +0 +3 +6 +2 +13 2.4
203429 MLB MLEMIL 75% 571506 12619410 551115 194 249329363692 114298 1910 313 98 -2 +2 +5 +2 +12 2.0
203530 MLB MLEMIL 73% 555492 12118310 531105 154 247326355682 109296 2010 308 95 -3 +1 +4 +2 +12 1.6
203631 MLB MLEMIL 73% 536476 1161739 511084 103 243321346667 103294 2010 303 91 -6 +1 +3 +2 +12 1.2
203732 MLB MLEMIL 72% 512455 1081637 481054 52 237315334649 96290 219 295 86 -9 +0 +2 +2 +11 0.7
203833 MLB MLEMIL 72% 476426 991436 441013 12 231308320628 88286 219 287 80 -11 -1 +1 +2 +10 0.1
202823 MLB CTXMIL 67% 410364 911338 39784 184 249329364693 115295 1910 313 99 -0 +2 +4 +1 +9 1.6
202924 MLB CTXMIL 73% 451401 1001439 43854 204 251331372703 120295 1910 317 102 +1 +2 +5 +2 +10 2.0
203025 MLB CTXMIL 77% 470416 10515310 46885 215 252333374707 122296 1910 318 103 +2 +2 +5 +2 +10 2.1
203126 MLB CTXMIL 78% 479424 10615310 47905 215 252333374707 122295 1910 318 103 +2 +2 +5 +2 +10 2.1
203227 MLB CTXMIL 77% 467415 10415310 45884 204 251332372703 121295 1910 317 102 +1 +2 +5 +2 +10 2.1
203328 MLB CTXMIL 77% 453402 1001439 44874 184 249330367697 118294 1910 314 100 +0 +2 +4 +2 +10 1.8
203429 MLB CTXMIL 75% 426378 931338 41834 143 247327361688 114293 1910 311 98 -1 +2 +4 +2 +9 1.5
203530 MLB CTXMIL 73% 408363 881327 39813 113 244324353677 109292 2010 306 95 -3 +1 +3 +1 +9 1.2
203631 MLB CTXMIL 73% 390347 841227 37793 72 240319343663 103290 209 301 91 -4 +1 +2 +1 +8 0.9
203732 MLB CTXMIL 72% 371330 781126 35763 42 235313331645 96286 209 293 86 -6 +0 +1 +1 +8 0.5
203833 MLB CTXMIL 72% 343306 70925 32732 11 229306317623 88283 219 285 80 -8 -0 +1 +1 +7 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 48804337 10661523190 46695442 15839 246325357682 112294 2010 309 91 -22 +16 +39 +19 +106 16.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650578 14220412 621276 215 246325356681 111294 2010 309 91 -3 +2 +5 +2 +14 2.1
Career— MLE — 89277929 194830158132 825174198 383104 246324348673 103297 209 303 91 -30 +23 +55 +25 +146 22.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650577 14222410 601277 288 246325350675 104297 209 303 91 -3 +2 +5 +2 +14 2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 346 PAwOBA .392 → .354 (−39)K% 13.9% → 16.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.87%÷1.000×1.200——16.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.74%÷1.000×0.690—×1.05010.68%
HBP% /PA0.87%—×0.940—×1.0500.86%
Singles /BIP29.29%÷1.000×0.930×1.009×1.05028.87%
Doubles /BIP4.18%÷1.000×0.830×1.009×1.0503.68%
Triples /BIP1.26%÷1.000×0.970×1.009×1.0501.29%
Home runs /BIP3.77%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0502.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .392 → .354; ISO .150 → .126; BABIP .359 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AABiloxi Shuckers · 612 PAwOBA .325 → .287 (−38)K% 16.2% → 21.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.18%÷0.932×1.220——21.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.05%÷1.008×0.680—×1.0509.96%
HBP% /PA1.31%—×0.840—×1.0501.15%
Singles /BIP22.95%÷0.976×0.920×1.018×1.05023.12%
Doubles /BIP7.73%÷1.091×0.910×1.018×1.0506.89%
Triples /BIP0.72%÷1.083×0.880×1.018×1.0500.63%
Home runs /BIP0.48%÷1.170×0.800—×1.0500.35%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 95, 2B 118, 3B 117, K 86, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .325 → .287; ISO .086 → .074; BABIP .312 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 489 PAwOBA .299 → .263 (−36)K% 15.7% → 20.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.75%÷0.993×1.270——20.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.38%÷0.995×0.710—×1.0426.24%
HBP% /PA3.48%—×0.790—×1.0422.86%
Singles /BIP22.70%÷1.022×0.920×1.026×1.04221.86%
Doubles /BIP5.46%÷0.991×0.810×1.026×1.0424.77%
Triples /BIP0.57%÷1.150×0.850×1.026×1.0420.45%
Home runs /BIP1.15%÷0.979×0.800—×1.0420.98%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .299 → .263; ISO .082 → .070; BABIP .287 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ACarolina Mudcats · 318 PAwOBA .330 → .270 (−60)K% 14.5% → 19.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.47%÷0.990×1.360——19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.26%÷1.018×0.690—×1.0458.69%
HBP% /PA0.94%—×0.780—×1.0450.77%
Singles /BIP28.07%÷1.049×0.920×0.976×1.04525.11%
Doubles /BIP4.82%÷1.090×0.830×0.976×1.0453.75%
Triples /BIP0.44%÷0.900×0.910×0.976×1.0450.45%
Home runs /BIP0.88%÷1.072×0.800—×1.0450.68%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 114, 1B 110, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 98, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .330 → .270; ISO .069 → .055; BABIP .335 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 79 PAwOBA .315 → .279 (−36)K% 19.0% → 25.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.99%÷0.955×1.270——25.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.33%÷1.024×0.710—×1.0504.61%
HBP% /PA2.53%—×0.790—×1.0502.10%
Singles /BIP29.63%÷1.013×0.920×1.005×1.05028.41%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷0.966×0.810×1.005×1.0503.28%
Triples /BIP3.70%÷1.150×0.850×1.005×1.0502.89%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.033×0.800—×1.0500.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.

Result: wOBA .315 → .279; ISO .087 → .071; BABIP .364 → .339. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Brewers 1 · 229 PAwOBA .322 → .209 (−113)K% 12.2% → 15.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.23%÷0.962×1.220——15.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.17%÷0.986×0.700—×1.0086.56%
HBP% /PA2.18%—×0.700—×1.0081.54%
Singles /BIP20.35%÷0.998×0.680×0.953×1.00813.31%
Doubles /BIP6.40%÷0.989×0.600×0.953×1.0083.72%
Triples /BIP2.33%÷0.900×0.600×0.953×1.0081.49%
Home runs /BIP1.16%÷1.116×0.470—×1.0080.49%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 100, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 92, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.

Result: wOBA .322 → .209; ISO .125 → .072; BABIP .289 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .