Luis Rengifo

3B San Diego Padres

Age 30 S/R 5'9" / 204 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 7.209 · Ctrl thru 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBIL-6040-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	MLBLAA	304	.300/.347/.417	6	24	118	1.2
2025	28	MLBLAA	541	.238/.289/.335	9	10	77	-0.4
2026	29	AAASD	27	.320/.370/.560	2	2	96	—	.231/.259/.346
2026	29	MLBSD	354	.240/.321/.317	4	6	84	0.3
2027PROJ	30	MLBSD	159	.248/.310/.350	3	4	90	0.1
2028PROJ	31	MLBSD	305	.243/.304/.339	5	5	85	-0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.209First FA2028Options2

2027Ext / FA-deal$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA44

Speed42

Bat Spd39

Avg EV26

Barrel%18

CompsShawn O'Malley (age 30) · Cory Sullivan (age 30) · Elian Herrera (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9090vR 90

AVG/OBP/SLG.248 / .310 / .350

PA159

HR3

K%17

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO110

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

590.259

POWER40

Barrel%

184.1

Avg EV

2687.3

Bat Spd

3970.2

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

4227.1

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 924 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

191

733

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

275

298

▶R

ISO

132

095

◀◀L

BABIP

273

299

▶R

17.8%

16.9%

▶R

BB%

3.1%

6.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.209 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.8M
Totals		$2M		$0.8M	-$0.8M

Options · projected decision
2027	MUTUAL OPT	$1.6M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	MUTUAL OPT	$10.0M / $1.5M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	17	ROK	VSL Mariners	—	280	229	45	11	2	1	39	46	5	11	5	197	326	275	601	79	240	16	14	280	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	DSL Mariners 2	—	254	217	73	10	6	2	22	22	5	19	8	336	410	465	875	129	362	9	9	376	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK	AZL Mariners	—	124	109	26	7	2	1	13	31	1	22	3	239	325	367	692	128	325	25	10	311	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	554	496	124	27	5	12	41	97	8	34	17	250	317	397	715	147	287	18	7	315	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	29	27	8	0	0	0	0	5	0	2	3	296	296	296	593		348	17	0	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	219	190	52	9	5	3	25	31	1	6	6	274	361	421	782	147	310	14	11	346	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	181	151	46	10	5	2	23	22	7	13	2	305	420	477	897	172	346	12	13	401	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Inland Empire 66ers	—	190	161	52	11	3	2	27	22	2	22	8	323	426	466	892	143	365	12	14	400	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	406	357	85	18	3	7	40	93	5	2	5	238	323	364	688	126	300	23	10	310	97	-2	-2	-2	+2	+9	0.6
2019	22	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	122	110	30	4	1	5	11	24	0	3	3	273	339	464	802	191	305	20	9	352	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	106	90	14	1	0	1	14	26	0	3	1	156	269	200	469	44	206	25	13	226	39	-8	+0	-2	+0	+2	-0.7
2020	23	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	30	25	3	0	0	1	5	10	0	2	0	120	267	240	507	120	143	33	17	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	190	174	35	1	0	6	9	38	2	1	0	201	249	310	559	109	220	20	5	247	52	-11	+0	-5	+4	+4	-0.7
2021	24	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	228	207	68	16	4	8	17	32	3	13	5	329	388	560	948	232	357	14	7	412	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	511	489	129	22	4	17	17	79	4	6	2	264	294	429	724	166	285	15	3	318	102	+1	+0	-5	+2	+11	1.1
2022	25	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	112	99	31	5	2	4	12	24	0	2	2	313	387	525	913	212	375	21	11	397	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	445	394	104	15	4	16	41	82	6	6	4	264	342	444	787	180	293	18	9	347	121	+11	-0	-6	+2	+10	1.6
2024	27	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	283	85	13	1	6	16	44	4	24	7	300	347	417	763	117	339	14	5	341	118	+7	+2	-4	+1	+7	1.2
2025	28	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	541	501	119	16	3	9	33	104	3	10	7	238	289	335	624	98	281	19	6	280	77	-15	-1	-1	+2	+12	-0.4
2026	29	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	354	312	75	12	0	4	34	49	3	6	4	240	321	317	638	77	272	14	10	291	84	-7	-0	+1	+1	+8	0.3
2026	29	AAA	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	27	25	8	0	0	2	2	5	0	2	0	320	370	560	930	240	333	19	7	407	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2857	2600	646	98	15	66	204	515	27	58	30	248	310	374	684	125	285	18	7	305	93	-25	-0	-24	+15	+62	2.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	17	ROK MLE	VSL Mariners	—	280	240	33	7	1	1	28	56	5	11	5	138	242	188	429	50	167	20	10	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners 2	—	254	224	54	7	4	1	15	27	5	19	8	241	303	321	625	80	253	11	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	124	114	20	5	1	1	8	45	1	22	3	175	236	263	499	88	269	36	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	554	508	111	21	4	10	29	136	8	34	17	219	272	335	606	116	268	25	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	219	197	48	8	5	3	18	40	1	6	6	244	310	381	691	137	278	18	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	181	160	47	10	5	2	14	27	7	13	2	294	376	456	832	162	342	15	8	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	190	168	50	9	3	2	20	28	2	22	8	298	379	423	802	125	348	15	11	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	406	357	86	19	3	7	40	93	5	2	5	241	326	370	696	129	300	23	10	311	97	-2	-2	-2	+2	+9	0.6
2019	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	122	113	26	3	1	4	8	31	0	3	3	230	281	381	662	150	268	25	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	106	90	14	1	0	1	14	26	0	3	1	156	269	200	469	44	206	25	13	226	39	-8	+0	-2	+0	+2	-0.7
2021	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	190	174	35	1	0	6	9	38	2	1	0	201	249	310	559	109	220	20	5	246	52	-11	+0	-5	+4	+4	-0.7
2021	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	228	213	61	14	3	6	11	39	3	13	5	286	330	465	795	178	330	17	5	351	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	511	489	130	23	4	17	17	79	4	6	2	266	296	434	730	168	285	15	3	320	102	+1	+0	-5	+2	+11	1.1
2022	25	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	112	103	30	5	2	3	8	29	0	2	2	291	342	466	808	175	368	26	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	445	394	105	16	4	16	41	82	6	6	4	266	345	449	794	183	293	18	9	348	121	+11	-0	-6	+2	+10	1.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	283	86	14	1	6	16	44	4	24	7	304	350	424	774	120	339	14	5	343	118	+7	+2	-4	+1	+7	1.2
2025	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	541	501	120	17	3	9	33	104	3	10	7	240	291	339	630	100	281	19	6	281	77	-15	-1	-1	+2	+12	-0.4
2026	29	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	354	313	76	13	0	4	33	49	3	6	4	243	321	323	644	80	272	14	9	293	84	-7	-0	+1	+1	+8	0.3
2026	29	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	—	27	26	6	0	0	1	1	6	0	2	0	231	259	346	605	115	294	22	4	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	VSL Mariners	—	280	240	33	7	1	1	28	56	5	11	5	138	242	188	429	50	174	20	10	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK RAW	VSL Mariners	—	280	229	45	11	2	1	39	46	5	11	5	197	326	275	601	79	240	16	14	280	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners 2	—	254	224	54	7	4	1	15	27	5	19	8	241	303	321	625	80	266	11	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners 2	—	254	217	73	10	6	2	22	22	5	19	8	336	410	465	875	129	362	9	9	376	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	124	114	20	5	1	1	8	45	1	22	3	175	236	263	499	88	279	36	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	—	124	109	26	7	2	1	13	31	1	22	3	239	325	367	692	128	325	25	10	311	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	583	534	116	22	4	10	30	143	8	36	20	217	269	330	599	112	275	25	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	583	523	132	27	5	12	41	102	8	36	20	252	316	392	708	140	291	17	7	312	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	590	526	144	27	12	6	51	95	10	41	16	274	349	405	754	131	323	16	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	590	502	150	30	13	7	75	75	10	41	16	299	400	452	853	153	339	13	13	380	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	470	112	22	4	11	48	124	5	5	8	238	315	372	688	134	298	23	9	304	92	-5	-2	-2	+2	+11	0.4
2019	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	528	467	115	22	4	12	51	117	5	5	8	246	327	388	715	141	301	22	10	319	92	-5	-2	-2	+2	+11	0.4
2020	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	136	116	17	1	0	1	18	33	0	5	1	147	261	181	442	34	195	24	13	226	39	-10	+1	-2	+0	+3	-0.8
2020	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	136	115	17	1	0	2	19	36	0	5	1	148	269	209	477	61	195	26	14	231	39	-10	+1	-2	+0	+3	-0.8
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	387	96	15	3	12	20	77	5	14	5	248	294	395	689	147	279	18	5	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	418	381	103	17	4	14	26	70	5	14	5	270	325	446	771	176	297	17	6	337	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	623	592	160	28	6	20	25	108	4	8	4	270	304	439	744	169	301	17	4	324	105	+4	+0	-5	+2	+13	1.6
2022	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	623	588	160	27	6	21	29	103	4	8	4	272	311	446	756	173	299	17	5	333	105	+4	+0	-5	+2	+13	1.6
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	445	394	105	16	4	16	41	82	6	6	4	266	345	449	794	183	297	18	9	348	121	+11	-0	-6	+2	+10	1.6
2023	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	445	394	104	15	4	16	41	82	6	6	4	264	342	444	787	180	293	18	9	347	121	+11	-0	-6	+2	+10	1.6
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	283	86	14	1	6	16	44	4	24	7	304	350	424	774	120	343	14	5	343	118	+7	+2	-4	+1	+7	1.2
2024	27	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	283	85	13	1	6	16	44	4	24	7	300	347	417	763	117	339	14	5	341	118	+7	+2	-4	+1	+7	1.2
2025	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	541	501	120	17	3	9	33	104	3	10	7	240	291	339	630	100	284	19	6	281	77	-15	-1	-1	+2	+12	-0.4
2025	28	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	—	541	501	119	16	3	9	33	104	3	10	7	238	289	335	624	98	281	19	6	280	77	-15	-1	-1	+2	+12	-0.4
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	381	339	83	13	0	5	34	55	3	8	4	245	319	327	647	83	278	14	9	294	85	-7	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2026	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	381	337	83	12	0	6	36	54	3	8	4	246	324	335	660	89	276	14	9	299	85	-7	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2014	17	ROK MLE	VSL Mariners	—	280	245	33	7	1	1	28	56	5	11	5	135	242	184	425	49	167	20	10	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners 2	—	254	232	54	7	4	1	15	27	5	19	8	233	303	310	614	78	253	11	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	—	124	114	20	5	1	1	8	45	1	22	3	175	236	263	499	88	269	36	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	583	540	116	22	4	10	30	143	8	36	20	215	269	326	595	111	268	25	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	590	524	144	27	12	6	51	95	10	41	16	275	349	406	756	132	320	16	9	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	528	470	112	22	4	11	48	124	5	5	8	238	315	372	688	134	293	23	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	136	117	17	1	0	1	18	33	0	5	1	145	261	179	441	34	206	24	13	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	418	390	96	15	3	12	20	77	5	14	5	246	294	392	686	146	280	18	5	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	623	589	160	28	6	20	25	108	4	8	4	272	304	441	746	170	300	17	4	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	445	395	105	16	4	16	41	82	6	6	4	266	345	448	793	182	293	18	9	348	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	281	86	14	1	6	16	44	4	24	7	306	350	427	777	121	339	14	5	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	541	500	120	17	3	9	33	104	3	10	7	240	291	340	631	100	281	19	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	381	341	83	13	0	5	34	55	3	8	4	243	319	326	645	82	274	14	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	281	86	14	1	6	16	44	4	24	7	306	350	427	777	121	339	14	5	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	541	500	120	17	3	9	33	104	3	10	7	240	291	340	631	100	281	19	6	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	381	341	83	13	0	5	34	55	3	8	4	243	319	326	645	82	274	14	9	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	SD	100%	380	346	87	13	1	7	28	65	3	10	3	251	313	355	668	103	289	17	7	301	90	-5	+1	-3	+1	+8	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	SD	100%	159	145	36	5	1	3	12	27	1	4	1	248	310	350	660	102	284	17	8	297	90	-2	+0	-1	+1	+3	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	SD	100%	305	278	68	10	1	5	22	53	2	5	2	246	308	343	651	97	285	17	7	294	85	-5	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
2028	31	MLB CTX	SD	100%	305	278	68	10	1	5	22	53	2	5	2	243	304	339	643	96	281	17	7	291	85	-5	+0	-5	+1	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3162	2878	714	108	16	71	226	568	29	63	32	248	309	371	680	123	285	18	7	304	86	-30	-0	-29	+16	+69	2.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	147	22	3	15	46	117	6	13	7	248	309	372	681	123	285	18	7	304	86	-6	-0	-6	+3	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5671	5143	1251	209	45	107	401	1073	62	218	95	243	306	364	670	121	287	19	7	296	86	-32	+0	-31	+17	+72	2.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	589	143	24	5	12	46	123	7	25	11	243	305	362	666	119	287	19	7	296	86	-6	+0	-6	+3	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 27 PAwOBA .395 → .310 (−85)K% 18.5% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.52%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.41%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.02%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.00%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.982	27.40%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.982	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	6.87%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .395 → .310; ISO .240 → .162; BABIP .333 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASalt Lake Bees · 112 PAwOBA .387 → .345 (−42)K% 21.4% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷0.989	×1.200	—	—	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.82%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.67%	÷0.993	×0.930	×1.050	×1.033	27.09%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.956	×0.830	×1.050	×1.033	6.28%
Triples /BIP	2.67%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.033	2.44%
Home runs /BIP	5.33%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.033	3.94%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .387 → .345; ISO .212 → .175; BABIP .375 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 228 PAwOBA .401 → .351 (−50)K% 14.0% → 17.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.04%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	17.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.02%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×1.048	4.66%
HBP% /PA	1.32%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.30%
Singles /BIP	22.86%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.015	×1.048	21.92%
Doubles /BIP	9.14%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.015	×1.048	8.06%
Triples /BIP	2.29%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.015	×1.048	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	4.57%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×1.048	3.70%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .401 → .351; ISO .232 → .195; BABIP .357 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASalt Lake Bees · 122 PAwOBA .345 → .280 (−65)K% 19.7% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.67%	÷1.009	×1.290	—	—	25.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.02%	÷0.980	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.26%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.974	×1.050	21.25%
Doubles /BIP	4.65%	÷1.062	×0.810	×0.974	×1.050	3.63%
Triples /BIP	1.16%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.974	×1.050	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	5.81%	÷1.059	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.50%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .345 → .280; ISO .191 → .145; BABIP .305 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 219 PAwOBA .340 → .291 (−49)K% 14.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.16%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	18.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.42%	÷1.068	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.97%
HBP% /PA	0.46%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.47%
Singles /BIP	22.01%	÷1.064	×0.900	×1.031	×1.050	20.15%
Doubles /BIP	5.66%	÷1.045	×0.810	×1.031	×1.050	4.75%
Triples /BIP	3.14%	÷0.969	×0.810	×1.031	×1.050	2.84%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷0.958	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.61%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 113, 2B 109, 3B 94, K 101, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.

Result: wOBA .340 → .291; ISO .147 → .129; BABIP .310 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 190 PAwOBA .390 → .348 (−42)K% 11.6% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.58%	÷1.044	×1.340	—	—	14.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.21%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×1.027	10.51%
HBP% /PA	1.05%	—	×0.790	—	×1.027	0.85%
Singles /BIP	25.90%	÷0.977	×0.910	×1.050	×1.027	26.02%
Doubles /BIP	7.91%	÷1.087	×0.820	×1.050	×1.027	6.44%
Triples /BIP	2.16%	÷0.978	×0.760	×1.050	×1.027	1.81%
Home runs /BIP	1.44%	÷0.978	×0.920	—	×1.027	1.39%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 95, 2B 117, 3B 96, K 109, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .390 → .348; ISO .143 → .124; BABIP .365 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAMobile BayBears · 181 PAwOBA .386 → .365 (−21)K% 12.2% → 14.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.15%	÷1.012	×1.220	—	—	14.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.05%	÷1.040	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.58%
HBP% /PA	3.87%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.41%
Singles /BIP	22.48%	÷1.021	×0.920	×1.042	×1.050	22.15%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷1.014	×0.910	×1.042	×1.050	7.61%
Triples /BIP	3.88%	÷0.944	×0.880	×1.042	×1.050	3.95%
Home runs /BIP	1.55%	÷0.959	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.36%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .386 → .365; ISO .172 → .175; BABIP .346 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 554 PAwOBA .308 → .259 (−49)K% 17.5% → 24.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.51%	÷0.973	×1.360	—	—	24.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.40%	÷1.013	×0.690	—	×1.030	5.19%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	1.16%
Singles /BIP	20.05%	÷0.978	×0.920	×1.019	×1.030	19.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.77%	÷1.086	×0.830	×1.019	×1.030	5.43%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷1.121	×0.910	×1.019	×1.030	1.07%
Home runs /BIP	3.01%	÷0.985	×0.800	—	×1.030	2.51%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .308 → .259; ISO .147 → .117; BABIP .287 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Logan Forsythelast yr '19 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,502 PA	5.3	3,502	70	42	246	327	370	+5	-11	8.6	9.2
/162	664	13	8	+0.9	-2.2	1.6	pk7: 10
#2Bernie Allen'62-'73 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,823 PA	5.8	3,823	73	13	245*	319*	390*	+13	-30	6.4	7.4
/162	664	13	2	+2.3	-5.2	1.1	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	5.0	3,339	74	68	249	307	371	+12	-25	6.8	7.3
/162	664	15	13	+2.4	-5.0	1.4	pk7: 8
#3Angel Berroalast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,794 PA	4.2	2,794	46	50	259	303	375	+27	-6	6.7	7.1
/162	664	11	12	+6.5	-1.4	1.6	pk7: 7
#4Marlon Anderson'98-'09 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,508 PA	5.3	3,508	63	71	255*	302*	377*	+0	-8	3.4	5.2
/162	664	12	13	+0.1	-1.5	0.6	pk7: 7
#5Mark Lewis'91-'01 * career totals — 10 seasons, 3,051 PA	4.6	3,051	48	29	253*	301*	378*	+16	-13	2.6	3.5
/162	664	10	6	+3.4	-2.9	0.6	pk7: 4
#6Carlos Sanchez'14-'22 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,503 PA	3.8	2,503	32	30	248*	305*	353*	+8	+0	2.1	2.6
/162	664	8	8	+2.0	+0.0	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Rengifo (OGILVIE)	30	55	40	50	40	249/311/352	102	289	3	4	17%	7%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Shawn O'Malley 2018 · MLB	30	48→58	41→40	52→60	47	232/296/334	102	292	8	16	23%	7%	80	-0.2	226/278/328	102	289	9	11	24%	6%	71	-0.8	230/263/298	67	298	2	9	23%	4%	55	-0.6
✕Cory Sullivan 2010 · MLB	30	52→60	40→45	50	49	247/299/344	97	287	6	12	16%	7%	82	-0.0	221/287/308	87	267	6	11	18%	8%	70	-0.8	166/256/198	32	207	0	8	18%	11%	34	-0.7
✕Elian Herrera 2016 · MLB	31	52→57	42→40	50→60	44	251/293/357	107	311	9	12	22%	6%	83	+0.1	231/286/338	107	305	10	9	26%	7%	76	-0.4	175/238/190	15	266	0	0	32%	8%	24	-0.8
✕Ildemaro Vargas 2021 · MLB	30	53→58	44→45	50	47	256/292/377	121	273	11	7	12%	5%	87	+0.4	235/276/355	120	257	10	7	13%	5%	76	-0.4	240/290/336	96	257	7	8	10%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Miguel Cairo 2005 · MLB	31	54→58	44→45	52→55	47	259/312/382	123	282	10	12	13%	5%	97	+1.1	244/293/336	92	271	5	21	12%	5%	78	-0.3	247/304/364	118	270	11	10	13%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Kazuo Matsui 2006 · MLB	30	53→60	42→45	54→60	47	254/305/368	114	296	9	14	17%	6%	91	+0.6	262/312/377	115	306	8	24	16%	7%	95	+0.9	272/324/386	115	315	7	30	15%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Eddy Garabito 2006 · MLB	29	53→51	45→40	48→50	51	258/319/386	128	288	12	14	15%	7%	100	+1.3	234/289/325	91	264	8	16	14%	7%	75	-0.5	229/286/300	71	258	6	17	13%	7%	64	-1.1
✕Brett Sullivan 2024 · MLB	30	48→52	43→50	49→55	49	234/286/350	116	265	9	9	16%	6%	80	-0.2	209/260/337	128	238	12	8	18%	6%	67	-1.1	190/241/319	130	212	13	5	18%	6%	54	-1.1
✕Alex Cintron 2009 · MLB	30	53→63	41→50	45	45	256/293/353	97	287	9	8	15%	4%	82	+0.0	232/269/326	94	273	9	6	18%	5%	67	-1.1	207/223/268	61	248	5	6	19%	2%	32	-1.0
✕Irving Falu 2013 · MLB	30	58→62	39→40	53→55	47	275/310/364	88	309	5	20	13%	5%	91	+0.6	244/284/318	74	275	4	18	12%	5%	70	-0.8	251/289/337	86	274	7	13	11%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Jose Guadalupe Chavez 2015 · AAA	30	51→59	43→45	47→55	46	247/299/349	101	295	11	12	20%	6%	84	+0.1	247/316/351	104	294	8	9	17%	9%	91	+0.7	265/341/344	79	310	3	9	14%	10%	96	+0.6
✕Erick Aybar 2014 · MLB	30	57→63	43→45	53→60	46	274/308/397	123	295	8	17	11%	4%	98	+1.2	265/303/360	95	293	6	13	11%	5%	87	+0.4	260/300/341	81	290	4	12	12%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2024 · MLB	29	53→58	40	52→55	49	253/307/341	88	291	8	21	16%	6%	85	+0.2	255/302/350	95	298	8	18	17%	5%	85	+0.2	256/301/341	85	300	6	19	16%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Joe Thurston 2010 · MLB	30	52→57	41→45	49→50	48	251/306/361	111	290	7	13	16%	6%	89	+0.5	231/286/353	122	267	12	10	18%	6%	80	-0.1	232/290/346	114	269	11	10	18%	6%	77	-0.3
✕Cliff Pennington 2013 · MLB	29	49→54	42→45	51→55	50	238/298/347	109	280	9	19	19%	8%	83	+0.1	232/300/320	88	281	7	12	19%	8%	78	-0.3	220/296/300	80	278	7	9	22%	9%	72	-0.3
✕Eric Fryer 2016 · MLB	30	49→59	39→45	50	47	233/296/321	88	302	7	9	24%	8%	76	-0.4	231/305/313	82	298	6	7	22%	9%	78	-0.3	258/331/307	49	326	0	0	19%	10%	86	+0.1
✕Wilmer Difo 2022 · MLB	30	50→56	42→45	49→55	48	242/302/347	104	307	10	8	24%	8%	84	+0.2	220/276/318	98	272	9	15	22%	7%	68	-1.0	206/267/291	85	259	8	19	23%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Maxwell Leon 2014 · AAA	30	49→56	42→50	47→50	45	237/308/343	106	291	9	11	21%	6%	86	+0.3	247/300/336	89	308	6	13	21%	6%	81	-0.1	251/303/331	80	316	6	14	21%	6%	78	-0.1
✕Wilkin Castillo 2014 · AAA	30	52→59	43→45	51→50	42	254/280/364	110	284	11	12	15%	3%	80	-0.2	224/264/322	98	256	8	9	16%	5%	64	-1.3	187/214/256	68	211	5	3	14%	3%	26	-1.2
✕Leury García 2021 · MLB	30	55→62	43→45	52→60	41	266/302/379	113	326	11	14	22%	4%	92	+0.7	242/294/341	99	298	8	8	21%	6%	80	-0.2	239/292/324	85	299	6	8	21%	6%	76	-0.2

Luis Rengifo

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps