Ildemaro Vargas

1B Arizona Diamondbacks
Age 36 S/R 5'11" / 202 lbs MLB HR -11% Svc 6.041 · Ctrl thru 2027
Overview
MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202433INTLVenezuela158.307/.399/.46031146—
202433MLBWSH303.246/.300/.3161970-0.1
202534AAA/INTL2 orgs422.304/.368/.457115113—.224/.279/.332
202534MLBARI121.270/.294/.38330850.5
202635MLBARI486.254/.298/.3779382-0.8
2027PROJ36MLBARI222.263/.308/.39353910.0
2028PROJ37MLBARI154.250/.294/.3673180-0.9
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.5  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2027Service6.041First FA2028
2027Ext / FA-deal$2M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Bat Spd44
Speed42
xwOBA36
Avg EV29
Barrel%10
Form.254/.300/.350 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .256/.299/.381
CompsErick Aybar (age 35) · Quinton McCracken (age 35) · Jose Vizcaino (age 36)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 9191vR 91
AVG/OBP/SLG.263 / .308 / .393
PA222
HR5
K%12
BB%5
BABIP281
ISO136
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -2.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +1.5 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+1FLDPOS: -4.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-4POSREP: +4.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.3-0.92728
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT
xAVG
640.263
POWER
Barrel%
102.6
Avg EV
2987.5
Bat Spd
4470.8
SPEED
Sprint
4227.1
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%12%▲11% over 63 PA (60d) · proj 12%
BB%6%·6% over 63 PA (60d) · proj 5%
ISO.097▼.017 over 59 AB (60d) · proj .126
HR/BB1.8%▼0.0% over 52 BBE (60d) · proj 2.7%
BABIP.274·.288 over 52 BIP (60d) · proj .273
SLASH.254/.300/.350▼proj .256/.299/.381
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 498 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
207
291
—
wRC+
108
83
◀◀L
wOBA
328
290
◀L
ISO
152
090
◀◀L
BABIP
296
282
◀L
K%
11.1%
11.0%
—
BB%
3.4%
5.5%
▶▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   FA
MLB Debut   2018
Service   6.041 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2027
First FA Year   2028
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext / FA-deal$2M+0.3$1M-$1M
Totals $2M $1M -$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
200817 ROKVSL Cardinals — 3026 6000 330 10 231310231541 261 1010 251 7 — — — — — —
200918 ROKVSL Cardinals — 190163 43741 20297 98 264368374743 110316 1511 340 42 — — — — — —
201019 ROKGCL Cardinals — 10488 21720 8103 23 239323364687 125263 108 297 43 — — — — — —
201120 ROKGCL Cardinals — 187152 441111 23175 40 289400395795 105312 912 351 71 — — — — — —
201221 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 2622 8300 450 00 364462500962 136471 1915 430 130 — — — — — —
201221 ROKJohnson City Cardinals — 258230 741524 17247 86 322386457842 135343 97 371 85 — — — — — —
201221 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui — 3328 8110 330 00 286355393748 107320 99 316 100 — — — — — —
201322 APeoria Chiefs — 467419 1041531 31493 84 248305305610 57278 107 272 45 — — — — — —
201322 INTLCaribes de Anzoategui — 2923 0000 420 00 148148 714 96 -49 — — — — — —
201423 A+Palm Beach Cardinals — 477431 1041711 16514 14 241275292567 51268 113 244 40 — — — — — —
201524 AKane County Cougars — 384336 1081835 35163 96 321390438828 116322 49 362 101 — — — — — —
201524 INTLCardenales de Lara — 227197 66750 22131 65 335405421826 86357 610 361 131 — — — — — —
201625 AAAReno Aces — 224198 701302 20132 131 354418449868 96372 69 384 112 — — — — — —
201625 AAMobile BayBears — 351323 891524 24240 80 276326372697 96287 77 311 61 — — — — — —
201625 INTLCardenales de Lara — 236210 64911 24200 63 305376371747 67333 810 339 115 — — — — — —
201726 AAAReno Aces — 535487 15235410 30407 83 312361462823 150319 76 358 96 — — — — — —
201726 INTLCardenales de Lara — 142126 441021 1461 51 349418484903 135361 410 399 156 — — — — — —
201827 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 2019 4001 140 10 211250368618 158214 205 275 76 -1 +0 +0 +3 +0 0.3
201827 AAAReno Aces — 572537 16731107 30462 104 311350445795 134329 85 351 79 — — — — — —
201827 INTLCardenales de Lara — 198190 51903 691 74 268294363658 95270 53 293 84 — — — — — —
201928 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 211201 54916 9240 10 269300413713 144279 114 314 96 -1 +0 +2 +1 +5 0.7
201928 AAAReno Aces — 137124 50932 1151 11 4034565731.028 169407 48 449 123 — — — — — —
202029 MLBChicago Cubs — 5451 10111 2100 00 196226314540 118220 194 235 43 -4 +0 -2 +1 +1 -0.3
202029 INTLCardenales de Lara — 127110 34400 16100 50 309397345742 36337 813 342 118 — — — — — —
202130 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 8377 12310 6170 10 156217221438 65200 207 204 12 -9 +0 -3 +2 +2 -0.8
202130 AAAReno Aces — 268249 7821010 16270 31 313355518873 205316 106 379 87 — — — — — —
202130 INTLCardenales de Lara — 204182 5810111 19140 30 319383566949 247294 79 408 162 — — — — — —
202231 MLBWashington Nationals — 222209 551314 8233 31 263300392692 129279 104 306 93 -2 +0 +6 +3 +5 1.2
202231 AAARochester Red Wings — 309278 681443 27370 32 245311356668 112270 129 298 55 — — — — — —
202231 INTLCardenales de Lara — 189161 551711 25121 60 342433478911 137360 613 404 159 — — — — — —
202332 MLBWashington Nationals — 286262 661324 19201 11 252305363668 111259 77 296 88 -4 -0 +2 +2 +6 0.5
202332 INTLCardenales de Lara — 177158 491220 18101 43 310384411796 101331 610 359 129 — — — — — —
202433 MLBWashington Nationals — 303272 671601 19312 94 246300316617 70269 106 273 70 -11 +0 +1 +2 +7 -0.1
202433 INTLVenezuela — 158137 421013 2081 11 307399460859 153310 513 384 146 — — — — — —
202534 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 121115 31213 2152 00 270294383677 113286 122 297 85 -2 +0 +2 +2 +3 0.5
202534 AAAReno Aces — 241216 55835 21223 41 255329389718 134263 99 322 68 — — — — — —
202534 INTLCardenales de Lara — 181165 611106 10164 10 370419545964 176379 96 422 172 — — — — — —
202635 MLBArizona Diamondbacks — 486453 1151959 27492 31 254298377676 124267 106 300 82 -10 +0 +0 -9 +11 -0.8
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 17861659 414761229 9319310 197 250293362656 113266 115 290 83 -37 +1 +8 +6 +39 1.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
200817 ROK MLEVSL Cardinals — 3027 4000 240 10 148207148355 181 137 178 7 — — — — — —
200918 ROK MLEVSL Cardinals — 190169 30430 14357 98 178268237505 59219 187 230 42 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 10491 18520 5143 23 198263297559 99210 135 232 43 — — — — — —
201120 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 187161 38911 14245 40 236317323640 87248 137 273 71 — — — — — —
201221 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 2623 7300 370 00 304385435819 130454 2712 360 130 — — — — — —
201221 ROK MLEJohnson City Cardinals — 258236 631223 11347 86 267319373692 106288 134 294 85 — — — — — —
201322 A MLEPeoria Chiefs — 467431 991131 19683 84 230267276543 46259 154 235 45 — — — — — —
201423 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 477435 991911 12734 14 228255283538 55249 153 227 40 — — — — — —
201524 A MLEKane County Cougars — 384348 1041635 23223 96 299348405753 106290 66 317 101 — — — — — —
201625 AAA MLEReno Aces — 224203 651102 15172 131 320373404777 84337 87 334 112 — — — — — —
201625 AA MLEMobile BayBears — 351331 801323 16300 80 242277320597 79254 95 259 61 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLEReno Aces — 535496 1392838 21567 83 280319397716 117292 104 310 96 — — — — — —
201827 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 2019 4001 140 10 211250368618 158214 205 280 76 -1 +0 +0 +3 +0 0.3
201827 AAA MLEReno Aces — 572547 1442375 20602 104 263292358650 95286 103 285 79 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 211201 53816 9240 10 264295403698 139279 114 309 96 -1 +0 +2 +1 +5 0.7
201928 AAA MLEReno Aces — 137127 40721 871 11 315360425785 110325 56 350 123 — — — — — —
202029 MLB MLEChicago Cubs — 5451 10111 2100 00 196226314540 118220 194 232 43 -4 +0 -2 +1 +1 -0.3
202130 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 8378 12310 5170 10 154205218423 64200 206 186 12 -9 +0 -3 +2 +2 -0.8
202130 AAA MLEReno Aces — 268255 651607 10330 31 255283400683 145263 124 297 87 — — — — — —
202231 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 222209 551314 8233 31 263300392692 129279 104 306 93 -2 +0 +6 +3 +5 1.2
202231 AAA MLERochester Red Wings — 309286 611242 19420 32 213262304566 91238 146 249 55 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 286262 661324 19201 11 252305363668 111259 77 298 88 -4 -0 +2 +2 +6 0.5
202433 MLB MLEWashington Nationals — 303272 671601 19312 94 246300316617 70269 106 272 70 -11 +0 +1 +2 +7 -0.1
202534 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 121115 31213 2152 00 270294383677 113286 122 294 85 -2 +0 +2 +2 +3 0.5
202534 AAA MLEReno Aces — 241223 50634 14263 41 224279332611 108237 116 269 68 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 486456 11317410 25492 31 248290368658 121267 105 290 82 -10 +0 +0 -9 +11 -0.8
200817 ROK MLEVSL Cardinals — 3027 4000 240 10 148207148355 174 137 178 7 — — — — — —
200817 ROK RAWVSL Cardinals — 3026 6000 330 10 231310231541 261 1010 251 7 — — — — — —
200918 ROK MLEVSL Cardinals — 190169 30430 14357 98 178268237505 59224 187 230 42 — — — — — —
200918 ROK RAWVSL Cardinals — 190163 43741 20297 98 264368374743 110316 1511 340 42 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 10491 18520 5143 23 198263297559 99228 135 232 43 — — — — — —
201019 ROK RAWGCL Cardinals — 10488 21720 8103 23 239323364687 125263 108 297 43 — — — — — —
201120 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 187161 38911 14245 40 236317323640 87264 137 273 71 — — — — — —
201120 ROK RAWGCL Cardinals — 187152 441111 23175 40 289400395795 105312 912 351 71 — — — — — —
201221 ROK MLE3 teams — 317289 791624 15467 86 273325384709 111311 155 300 89 — — — — — —
201221 ROK RAW3 teams — 317280 901934 24327 86 321389454843 132350 108 370 89 — — — — — —
201322 A MLE2 teams — 496457 1051231 20723 84 230267276542 46270 154 235 45 — — — — — —
201322 A RAW2 teams — 496442 1041531 35513 84 235296290585 54263 107 262 45 — — — — — —
201423 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 477435 991911 12734 14 228255283538 55267 153 227 40 — — — — — —
201423 A+ RAWPalm Beach Cardinals — 477431 1041711 16514 14 241275292567 51268 113 244 40 — — — — — —
201524 A MLE2 teams — 611554 1632547 36354 1511 294342392733 97301 66 317 101 — — — — — —
201524 A RAW2 teams — 611533 1742585 57294 1511 326396432827 105335 59 362 101 — — — — — —
201625 AA MLE3 teams — 811755 2043336 44662 274 270312346658 75289 85 288 81 — — — — — —
201625 AA RAW3 teams — 811731 2233737 68572 274 305366393758 88323 78 339 81 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLE2 teams — 677630 17635410 27718 134 279317395713 116298 104 310 96 — — — — — —
201726 AAA RAW2 teams — 677613 19645611 44468 134 320373467839 147328 76 367 96 — — — — — —
201827 AAA MLE3 teams — 790755 19831108 28853 188 262291362653 99286 114 285 79 — — — — — —
201827 AAA RAW3 teams — 790746 222401011 37593 188 298333422756 125311 75 334 79 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLE2 teams — 348328 941538 17311 21 287324424747 137296 95 325 106 +3 +0 +2 +1 +8 1.3
201928 MLB RAW2 teams — 348325 1041848 20291 21 320361474835 154331 86 367 106 +3 +0 +2 +1 +8 1.3
202029 INTL MLE2 teams — 181172 32333 7340 50 186218291509 105212 194 232 43 — — — — — —
202029 INTL RAW2 teams — 181161 44511 18200 50 273346335682 62303 1110 310 43 — — — — — —
202130 AAA MLE3 teams — 555526 12130111 23790 71 230262354616 124249 144 271 69 — — — — — —
202130 AAA RAW3 teams — 555508 14834221 41580 71 291344490834 199292 107 363 69 — — — — — —
202231 AAA MLE3 teams — 720672 1573478 36894 123 234277341617 107256 125 273 71 — — — — — —
202231 AAA RAW3 teams — 720648 1784468 60724 123 275340398738 123296 108 328 71 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLE2 teams — 463426 1072146 31322 54 251305362667 110260 77 298 88 -7 -1 +2 +2 +10 0.6
202332 MLB RAW2 teams — 463420 1152544 37302 54 274336381716 107287 68 320 88 -7 -1 +2 +2 +10 0.6
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 461419 1022402 29473 105 243297315612 72267 106 272 70 -17 +0 +1 +2 +10 -0.4
202433 MLB RAW2 teams — 461409 1092614 39393 105 267335364699 98283 88 311 70 -17 +0 +1 +2 +10 -0.4
202534 AAA MLE3 teams — 543505 12112610 24619 51 240286347633 107253 114 277 74 — — — — — —
202534 AAA RAW3 teams — 543496 14721414 33539 51 296351440791 143307 106 350 74 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 486456 11317410 25492 31 248290368658 121258 105 290 82 -10 +0 +0 -9 +11 -0.8
202635 MLB RAWArizona Diamondbacks — 486453 1151959 27492 31 254298377676 124267 106 300 82 -10 +0 +0 -9 +11 -0.8
200817 ROK MLEVSL Cardinals — 3028 4000 240 10 143207143350 181 137 178 7 — — — — — —
200918 ROK MLEVSL Cardinals — 190167 30430 14357 98 180268240508 60219 187 230 42 — — — — — —
201019 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 10495 18520 5143 23 189263284547 95210 135 232 43 — — — — — —
201120 ROK MLEGCL Cardinals — 187166 38911 14245 40 229317313630 84248 137 273 71 — — — — — —
201221 ROK MLE3 teams — 317292 791624 15467 86 271325380705 110303 155 300 89 — — — — — —
201322 A MLE2 teams — 496470 1051231 20723 84 223267268535 45259 154 235 45 — — — — — —
201423 A+ MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 477458 991911 12734 14 216255269524 52249 153 227 40 — — — — — —
201524 A MLE2 teams — 611566 1632547 36354 1511 288342383725 95290 66 317 101 — — — — — —
201625 AA MLE3 teams — 811759 2043336 44662 274 269312344656 75286 85 288 81 — — — — — —
201726 AAA MLE2 teams — 677637 17635410 27718 134 276317391708 115292 104 310 96 — — — — — —
201827 AAA MLE3 teams — 790753 19831108 28853 188 263291363654 100284 114 285 79 — — — — — —
201928 MLB MLE2 teams — 348327 941538 17311 21 287324425749 138297 95 325 106 — — — — — —
202029 INTL MLE2 teams — 181172 32333 7340 50 186218291509 105220 194 232 43 — — — — — —
202130 AAA MLE3 teams — 555527 12130111 23790 71 230262353615 123248 144 271 69 — — — — — —
202231 AAA MLE3 teams — 720674 1573478 36894 123 233277340616 107255 125 273 71 — — — — — —
202332 MLB MLE2 teams — 463427 1072146 31322 54 251305361666 110259 77 298 88 — — — — — —
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 461426 1022402 29473 105 239297310607 70269 106 272 70 — — — — — —
202534 AAA MLE3 teams — 543505 12112610 24619 51 240286347633 107253 114 277 74 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 486456 11317410 25492 31 248290368658 121267 105 290 82 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202433 MLB MLE2 teams — 461426 1022402 29473 105 239297310607 70269 106 272 70 — — — — — —
202534 AAA MLE3 teams — 543505 12112610 24619 51 240286347633 107253 114 277 74 — — — — — —
202635 MLB MLEArizona Diamondbacks — 486456 11317410 25492 31 248290368658 121267 105 290 82 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202736 MLB MLEARI 100% 333310 781227 18412 41 256302382683 126273 125 303 91 -3 +0 +2 -6 +7 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202736 MLB CTXARI 100% 222206 54925 12272 31 263308393701 131281 125 310 91 -2 +0 +1 -4 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202837 MLB MLEARI 100% 154144 35513 8201 10 244288356645 112264 135 287 80 -4 +0 -6 -3 +3 -0.9
202837 MLB CTXARI 100% 154144 36613 8201 10 250294367661 117272 135 294 80 -4 +0 -6 -3 +3 -0.9
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19401803 450821332 10121311 207 250293363656 113266 115 291 76 -41 +1 +2 +3 +42 0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650604 15027411 34714 72 248293361654 113264 115 291 76 -14 +0 +1 +1 +14 0.3
Career— MLE — 88238177 204935864104 42999470 15969 251294348642 98272 115 280 76 -43 +1 +4 -1 +47 0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650602 1512658 32735 125 251294350645 100272 115 280 76 -13 +0 +1 -0 +14 0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAReno Aces · 241 PAwOBA .315 → .269 (−47)K% 9.1% → 10.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA9.13%÷1.025×1.200——10.68%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.71%÷0.964×0.690—×0.9405.86%
HBP% /PA1.24%—×0.940—×0.9401.10%
Singles /BIP20.10%÷0.994×0.930×1.050×0.94018.56%
Doubles /BIP4.12%÷1.069×0.830×1.050×0.9403.16%
Triples /BIP1.55%÷0.902×0.970×1.050×0.9401.64%
Home runs /BIP2.58%÷0.904×0.700—×0.9401.88%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .315 → .269; ISO .134 → .111; BABIP .263 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARochester Red Wings · 309 PAwOBA .293 → .249 (−44)K% 12.0% → 13.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.97%÷1.049×1.200——13.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.74%÷0.973×0.690—×0.9625.96%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9620.00%
Singles /BIP19.50%÷1.011×0.930×0.998×0.96217.23%
Doubles /BIP5.81%÷0.930×0.830×0.998×0.9624.98%
Triples /BIP1.66%÷0.913×0.970×0.998×0.9621.69%
Home runs /BIP1.24%÷1.084×0.700—×0.9620.77%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 83, K 110, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .293 → .249; ISO .112 → .095; BABIP .270 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAReno Aces · 268 PAwOBA .370 → .297 (−72)K% 10.1% → 12.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.07%÷0.991×1.200——12.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.22%÷0.963×0.690—×0.9723.64%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×0.9720.00%
Singles /BIP21.17%÷1.047×0.930×1.022×0.97218.67%
Doubles /BIP9.46%÷1.096×0.830×1.022×0.9727.11%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.113×0.920×1.022×0.9720.00%
Home runs /BIP4.50%÷0.958×0.700—×0.9723.20%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .370 → .297; ISO .205 → .151; BABIP .316 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAReno Aces · 137 PAwOBA .441 → .350 (−90)K% 3.6% → 4.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA3.65%÷0.970×1.290——4.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.03%÷0.986×0.710—×0.9925.74%
HBP% /PA0.73%—×0.980—×0.9920.71%
Singles /BIP30.25%÷1.035×0.900×0.958×0.99225.00%
Doubles /BIP7.56%÷1.025×0.810×0.958×0.9925.68%
Triples /BIP2.52%÷1.150×0.810×0.958×0.9921.69%
Home runs /BIP1.68%÷1.077×0.780—×0.9921.21%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .441 → .350; ISO .169 → .124; BABIP .407 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAReno Aces · 572 PAwOBA .343 → .285 (−58)K% 8.0% → 10.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA8.04%÷0.991×1.290——10.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.24%÷1.069×0.710—×1.0033.49%
HBP% /PA0.35%—×0.980—×1.0030.34%
Singles /BIP24.24%÷1.024×0.900×1.039×1.00322.20%
Doubles /BIP6.31%÷1.117×0.810×1.039×1.0034.77%
Triples /BIP2.04%÷1.150×0.810×1.039×1.0031.49%
Home runs /BIP1.43%÷1.044×0.780—×1.0031.07%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 105, 2B 123, 3B 130, K 98, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.

Result: wOBA .343 → .285; ISO .134 → .100; BABIP .329 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAReno Aces · 535 PAwOBA .353 → .310 (−44)K% 7.5% → 10.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA7.48%÷0.919×1.290——10.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.61%÷1.007×0.710—×1.0184.02%
HBP% /PA1.31%—×0.980—×1.0181.31%
Singles /BIP23.04%÷0.992×0.900×1.048×1.01822.31%
Doubles /BIP7.83%÷1.089×0.810×1.048×1.0186.21%
Triples /BIP0.89%÷1.150×0.810×1.048×1.0180.67%
Home runs /BIP2.24%÷1.044×0.780—×1.0181.70%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 84, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .353 → .310; ISO .150 → .117; BABIP .319 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAMobile BayBears · 351 PAwOBA .302 → .259 (−43)K% 6.8% → 8.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.84%÷0.977×1.220——8.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA6.55%÷0.975×0.680—×0.9984.56%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.840—×0.9980.00%
Singles /BIP22.74%÷1.065×0.920×1.043×0.99820.44%
Doubles /BIP5.02%÷1.146×0.910×1.043×0.9984.15%
Triples /BIP0.67%÷0.900×0.880×1.043×0.9980.68%
Home runs /BIP1.34%÷1.160×0.800—×0.9980.92%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 113, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.

Result: wOBA .302 → .259; ISO .096 → .078; BABIP .287 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAReno Aces · 224 PAwOBA .374 → .334 (−40)K% 5.8% → 7.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA5.80%÷0.991×1.290——7.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.93%÷0.979×0.710—×1.0336.69%
HBP% /PA0.89%—×0.980—×1.0330.90%
Singles /BIP29.73%÷1.052×0.900×1.050×1.03327.59%
Doubles /BIP7.03%÷1.060×0.810×1.050×1.0335.82%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.810×1.050×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP1.08%÷1.092×0.780—×1.0330.80%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 110, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .374 → .334; ISO .096 → .079; BABIP .372 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .