Isiah Kiner-Falefa

2B Boston Red Sox

Age 32 R/R 5'10" / 195 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 9.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	29	MLBPIT	496	.269/.308/.376	8	11	93	1.4
2025	30	MLBTOR	459	.262/.298/.334	2	15	77	0.5
2026	31	AAABOS	35	.241/.371/.276	0	3	53	—	.226/.314/.258
2026	31	MLBBOS	183	.242/.322/.311	2	8	78	0.2
2027PROJ	32	MLBBOS	242	.256/.309/.339	2	8	79	0.2
2028PROJ	33	MLBBOS	213	.249/.300/.323	2	4	72	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service9.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed50

xwOBA25

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Bat Spd10

Form.241/.310/.309 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .249/.300/.329

CompsGil Velazquez (age 32) · Heber Gomez (age 32) · Andrew Romine (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7879vR 81

AVG/OBP/SLG.256 / .309 / .339

PA242

HR2

SB8

K%17

BB%6

BABIP301

ISO80

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT55

xAVG

480.249

POWER35

Barrel%

101.9

Avg EV

1084.9

Bat Spd

1066.5

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED50

Sprint

5027.5

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%17%·18% over 51 PA (60d) · proj 17%

BB%8%▲▲14% over 51 PA (60d) · proj 6%

ISO.068▼.024 over 42 AB (60d) · proj .080

HR/BB1.0%·0.0% over 33 BBE (60d) · proj 1.3%

BABIP.288▼.182 over 33 BIP (60d) · proj .292

SLASH.241/.310/.309·proj .249/.300/.329

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 955 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

259

696

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

254

306

▶▶R

ISO

062

101

▶▶R

BABIP

267

327

▶▶R

16.2%

—

BB%

2.3%

3.9%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 9.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.1	$0.4M	-$0.6M
Totals		$1M		$0.4M	-$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2013	18	ROK	AZL Rangers	—	169	149	48	5	0	0	15	24	1	12	3	322	388	356	744	34	384	14	9	335	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	73	62	12	0	0	0	6	12	1	1	0	194	275	194	469		240	16	8	216	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+	High Desert Mavericks	—	254	233	72	6	1	0	9	28	9	4	3	309	359	343	702	34	350	11	4	319	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A	Hickory Crawdads	—	147	125	34	6	1	0	14	22	3	7	3	272	359	336	695	64	324	15	10	311	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	457	402	103	8	2	0	41	51	11	6	6	256	341	286	627	30	293	11	9	294	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	INTL	Surprise Saguaros	—	40	31	6	0	0	0	7	7	1	0	1	194	359	194	553		240	18	18	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	570	513	148	31	3	5	41	72	10	17	6	288	352	390	742	101	325	13	7	333	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	396	356	93	18	2	4	28	62	6	7	5	261	326	357	682	96	306	16	7	306	85	-7	-1	+0	+1	+9	0.3
2018	23	AAA	Round Rock Express	—	18	15	3	0	0	0	3	3	0	1	0	200	333	200	533		250	17	17	267	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	222	202	48	12	1	1	14	49	4	3	0	238	300	322	622	84	307	22	6	282	71	-8	+1	-6	+6	+5	-0.2
2019	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	37	34	5	3	0	0	1	6	2	1	0	147	216	235	452	88	179	16	3	212	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	71	60	17	4	0	2	8	9	2	1	0	283	386	450	836	167	300	13	11	370	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	228	211	59	4	3	3	14	32	2	8	5	280	330	370	700	90	316	14	6	315	97	-1	-0	+4	+1	+5	0.9
2021	26	MLB	Texas Rangers	—	677	635	172	25	3	8	28	90	11	20	5	271	313	357	671	87	304	13	4	302	88	-10	+2	-0	+7	+15	1.5
2022	27	MLB	New York Yankees	—	531	483	126	20	0	4	35	72	5	22	4	261	317	327	645	66	296	14	7	291	81	-12	+3	+1	+6	+12	0.9
2023	28	MLB	New York Yankees	—	361	326	79	12	1	6	28	70	3	14	5	242	308	340	649	98	289	19	8	292	83	-7	+1	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2024	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	496	465	125	18	4	8	16	78	10	11	2	269	308	376	684	108	307	16	3	304	93	-4	+1	+4	+2	+11	1.4
2025	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	431	113	21	2	2	17	77	5	15	4	262	298	334	632	72	314	17	4	282	77	-13	+1	+2	+5	+10	0.5
2026	31	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	183	161	39	5	0	2	19	27	0	8	2	242	322	311	633	68	280	15	10	289	78	-5	+1	+2	+1	+4	0.2
2026	31	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	35	29	7	1	0	0	6	7	0	3	0	241	371	276	647	34	318	20	17	311	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3553	3270	854	135	16	38	199	557	46	108	32	261	313	347	660	86	303	16	6	296	87	-56	+9	+9	+30	+77	7.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	169	155	42	4	0	0	9	34	1	12	3	271	315	297	612	26	334	20	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	73	64	13	0	0	0	4	16	1	1	0	203	261	203	464		252	22	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	High Desert Mavericks	—	254	235	67	5	1	0	7	39	9	4	3	285	331	315	646	30	328	15	3	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	147	130	35	6	1	0	9	30	3	7	3	269	331	331	662	62	322	20	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	457	413	107	7	2	0	30	60	11	6	6	259	326	286	612	27	298	13	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	570	528	140	27	3	4	27	92	10	17	6	265	313	350	664	85	308	16	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	396	357	92	17	2	4	27	62	6	7	5	258	321	350	671	92	306	16	7	294	85	-7	-1	+0	+1	+9	0.3
2018	23	AAA MLE	Round Rock Express	—	18	16	3	0	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	188	278	188	465		246	22	11	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	222	202	47	11	1	1	14	49	4	3	0	233	295	312	607	79	307	22	6	273	71	-8	+1	-6	+6	+5	-0.2
2019	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	37	34	4	2	0	0	1	8	2	1	0	118	189	176	366	59	161	22	3	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	71	63	16	4	0	1	5	11	2	1	0	254	329	365	694	111	276	15	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	228	211	59	4	3	3	14	32	2	8	5	280	330	370	700	90	316	14	6	312	97	-1	-0	+4	+1	+5	0.9
2021	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	677	637	171	26	3	7	26	90	11	20	5	268	309	352	660	83	304	13	4	298	88	-10	+2	-0	+7	+15	1.5
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	485	126	20	0	4	33	72	5	22	4	260	314	326	639	66	296	14	6	288	81	-12	+3	+1	+6	+12	0.9
2023	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	361	326	79	12	1	6	28	70	3	14	5	242	308	340	649	98	289	19	8	291	83	-7	+1	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	496	465	125	17	4	9	16	78	10	11	2	269	308	381	688	112	307	16	3	306	93	-4	+1	+4	+2	+11	1.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	431	113	21	2	2	17	77	5	15	4	262	298	334	632	72	314	17	4	281	77	-13	+1	+2	+5	+10	0.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	183	161	38	4	0	2	19	27	0	8	2	236	317	298	615	62	280	15	10	283	78	-5	+1	+2	+1	+4	0.2
2026	31	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	35	31	7	1	0	0	4	8	0	3	0	226	314	258	572	32	280	23	11	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	169	155	42	4	0	0	9	34	1	12	3	271	315	297	612	26	347	20	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	18	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	—	169	149	48	5	0	0	15	24	1	12	3	322	388	356	744	34	384	14	9	335	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	73	64	13	0	0	0	4	16	1	1	0	203	261	203	464		271	22	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A RAW	Hickory Crawdads	—	73	62	12	0	0	0	6	12	1	1	0	194	275	194	469		240	16	8	216	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	401	365	101	11	2	0	16	69	12	11	6	277	328	318	646	41	338	17	4	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	401	358	106	12	2	0	23	50	12	11	6	296	359	341	700	45	341	12	6	316	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	497	448	116	8	2	0	33	66	12	6	7	259	327	286	612	27	302	13	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	497	433	109	8	2	0	48	58	12	6	7	252	343	279	622	28	289	12	10	293	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	570	528	140	27	3	4	27	92	10	17	6	265	313	350	664	85	312	16	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	—	570	513	148	31	3	5	41	72	10	17	6	288	352	390	742	101	325	13	7	333	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	373	95	17	2	4	29	66	6	8	5	255	319	343	662	88	299	16	7	292	84	-8	-0	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2018	23	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	414	371	96	18	2	4	31	65	6	8	5	259	326	350	676	92	304	16	7	304	84	-8	-0	+0	+1	+9	0.2
2019	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	330	299	66	17	1	2	20	68	8	5	0	221	287	304	592	84	277	21	6	271	69	-12	+1	-6	+6	+7	-0.4
2019	24	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	330	296	70	19	1	3	23	64	8	5	0	236	309	338	647	101	290	19	7	293	69	-12	+1	-6	+6	+7	-0.4
2020	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	228	211	59	4	3	3	14	32	2	8	5	280	330	370	700	90	316	14	6	312	97	-1	-0	+4	+1	+5	0.9
2020	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	228	211	59	4	3	3	14	32	2	8	5	280	330	370	700	90	316	14	6	315	97	-1	-0	+4	+1	+5	0.9
2021	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	677	637	171	26	3	7	26	90	11	20	5	268	309	352	660	83	303	13	4	298	88	-10	+2	-0	+7	+15	1.5
2021	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	—	677	635	172	25	3	8	28	90	11	20	5	271	313	357	671	87	304	13	4	302	88	-10	+2	-0	+7	+15	1.5
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	485	126	20	0	4	33	72	5	22	4	260	314	326	639	66	295	14	6	288	81	-12	+3	+1	+6	+12	0.9
2022	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	531	483	126	20	0	4	35	72	5	22	4	261	317	327	645	66	296	14	7	291	81	-12	+3	+1	+6	+12	0.9
2023	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	361	326	79	12	1	6	28	70	3	14	5	242	308	340	649	98	289	19	8	291	83	-7	+1	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	361	326	79	12	1	6	28	70	3	14	5	242	308	340	649	98	289	19	8	292	83	-7	+1	+1	+1	+8	0.4
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	496	465	125	17	4	9	16	78	10	11	2	269	308	381	688	112	305	16	3	306	93	-4	+1	+4	+2	+11	1.4
2024	29	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	496	465	125	18	4	8	16	78	10	11	2	269	308	376	684	108	307	16	3	304	93	-4	+1	+4	+2	+11	1.4
2025	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	431	113	21	2	2	17	77	5	15	4	262	298	334	632	72	314	17	4	281	77	-13	+1	+2	+5	+10	0.5
2025	30	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	431	113	21	2	2	17	77	5	15	4	262	298	334	632	72	314	17	4	282	77	-13	+1	+2	+5	+10	0.5
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	218	192	44	5	0	2	23	35	0	11	2	229	312	286	598	57	271	16	11	277	74	-7	+1	+2	+1	+5	0.2
2026	31	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	218	190	46	6	0	2	25	34	0	11	2	242	330	305	635	63	286	16	11	292	74	-7	+1	+2	+1	+5	0.2
2013	18	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	—	169	157	42	4	0	0	9	34	1	12	3	268	315	293	608	25	334	20	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	19	A MLE	Hickory Crawdads	—	73	68	13	0	0	0	4	16	1	1	0	191	261	191	452		252	22	5	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	401	370	101	11	2	0	16	69	12	11	6	273	328	314	642	41	326	17	4	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	497	449	116	8	2	0	33	66	12	6	7	258	327	285	612	27	298	13	7	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	22	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	570	528	140	27	3	4	27	92	10	17	6	265	313	350	664	85	308	16	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	23	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	414	376	95	17	2	4	29	66	6	8	5	253	319	340	659	88	303	16	7	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	24	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	330	299	66	17	1	2	20	68	8	5	0	221	287	304	592	84	284	21	6	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	228	210	59	4	3	3	14	32	2	8	5	281	330	371	702	90	316	14	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	—	677	635	171	26	3	7	26	90	11	20	5	269	309	353	661	83	304	13	4	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	531	488	126	20	0	4	33	72	5	22	4	258	314	324	637	66	296	14	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	361	327	79	12	1	6	28	70	3	14	5	242	308	339	648	98	289	19	8	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	496	467	125	17	4	9	16	78	10	11	2	268	308	379	687	111	307	16	3	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	434	113	21	2	2	17	77	5	15	4	260	298	332	630	71	314	17	4	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	218	193	44	5	0	2	23	35	0	11	2	228	312	285	597	57	280	16	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	496	467	125	17	4	9	16	78	10	11	2	268	308	379	687	111	307	16	3	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	459	434	113	21	2	2	17	77	5	15	4	260	298	332	630	71	314	17	4	281	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	31	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	218	193	44	5	0	2	23	35	0	11	2	228	312	285	597	57	280	16	11	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	32	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	354	327	81	13	1	3	21	59	3	12	3	249	302	329	631	80	292	17	6	285	79	-9	+1	+2	+1	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	32	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	242	224	57	10	1	2	14	40	2	8	2	256	309	339	648	83	301	17	6	292	79	-6	+1	+1	+1	+5	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	213	197	48	7	1	2	12	37	2	4	1	242	294	313	607	71	287	17	6	275	72	-7	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.4
2028	33	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	213	197	50	8	1	2	12	37	2	4	1	249	300	323	623	74	295	17	6	282	72	-7	+0	-3	+1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3766	3467	904	143	17	40	211	594	48	112	33	261	312	346	659	86	303	16	6	295	80	-63	+9	+7	+31	+82	6.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	157	25	3	7	36	103	8	19	6	263	313	349	662	87	305	16	6	295	80	-11	+2	+1	+5	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5879	5400	1394	205	25	47	321	942	90	173	57	258	311	331	642	73	303	16	5	287	80	-69	+10	+8	+32	+87	6.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	597	154	23	3	5	35	104	10	19	6	258	309	332	641	74	303	16	5	287	80	-11	+2	+1	+5	+14	1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 35 PAwOBA .305 → .246 (−58)K% 20.0% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.14%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.962	11.38%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×0.962	24.40%
Doubles /BIP	4.55%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.962	3.63%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.962	0.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .305 → .246; ISO .034 → .028; BABIP .318 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 71 PAwOBA .366 → .312 (−54)K% 12.7% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.68%	÷0.986	×1.220	—	—	15.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.27%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×1.012	7.73%
HBP% /PA	2.82%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	2.48%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷0.983	×0.920	—	×1.012	20.43%
Doubles /BIP	7.84%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×1.012	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.940	—	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.92%	÷1.208	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.63%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .366 → .312; ISO .167 → .130; BABIP .300 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANashville Sounds · 37 PAwOBA .206 → .180 (−26)K% 16.2% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.22%	÷1.015	×1.290	—	—	20.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.70%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×1.048	2.03%
HBP% /PA	5.41%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	5.55%
Singles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.007	×0.900	—	×1.048	6.69%
Doubles /BIP	10.71%	÷0.967	×0.810	—	×1.048	9.41%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.069	×0.810	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .206 → .180; ISO .088 → .073; BABIP .179 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAARound Rock Express · 18 PAwOBA .262 → .232 (−29)K% 16.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.67%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	20.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷0.978	×0.710	—	×1.050	12.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.962	×0.900	—	×1.050	24.56%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.019	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.978	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 92, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .262 → .232; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 570 PAwOBA .326 → .291 (−35)K% 12.6% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.63%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	16.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.19%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×1.042	4.79%
HBP% /PA	1.75%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	1.59%
Singles /BIP	24.72%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.037	×1.042	24.06%
Doubles /BIP	7.03%	÷1.051	×0.840	×1.037	×1.042	6.07%
Triples /BIP	0.68%	÷1.017	×0.940	×1.037	×1.042	0.68%
Home runs /BIP	1.13%	÷1.089	×0.800	—	×1.042	0.87%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 103, K 92, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .326 → .291; ISO .101 → .086; BABIP .325 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 457 PAwOBA .287 → .276 (−11)K% 11.2% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.16%	÷1.034	×1.220	—	—	13.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.75%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×1.050	6.58%
HBP% /PA	2.41%	—	×0.870	—	×1.050	2.20%
Singles /BIP	26.50%	÷0.982	×0.920	×1.050	×1.050	27.37%
Doubles /BIP	2.28%	÷1.062	×0.840	×1.050	×1.050	1.99%
Triples /BIP	0.57%	÷1.150	×0.940	×1.050	×1.050	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.065	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .287 → .276; ISO .030 → .027; BABIP .293 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+High Desert Mavericks · 254 PAwOBA .312 → .280 (−32)K% 11.0% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.02%	÷0.973	×1.340	—	—	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.54%	÷1.021	×0.710	—	×1.042	2.57%
HBP% /PA	3.54%	—	×0.790	—	×1.042	2.92%
Singles /BIP	31.71%	÷1.041	×0.910	×1.041	×1.042	30.07%
Doubles /BIP	2.93%	÷1.046	×0.820	×1.041	×1.042	2.49%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷0.900	×0.760	×1.041	×1.042	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.015	×0.920	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 108, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.

Result: wOBA .312 → .280; ISO .034 → .029; BABIP .350 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AHickory Crawdads · 147 PAwOBA .308 → .284 (−24)K% 15.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.97%	÷0.967	×1.340	—	—	20.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.52%	÷1.042	×0.660	—	×1.030	6.21%
HBP% /PA	2.04%	—	×0.770	—	×1.030	1.62%
Singles /BIP	26.21%	÷0.981	×0.920	×1.046	×1.030	26.48%
Doubles /BIP	5.83%	÷0.971	×0.820	×1.046	×1.030	5.30%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷0.910	×0.940	×1.046	×1.030	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.229	×0.820	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 94, 3B 82, K 93, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.

Result: wOBA .308 → .284; ISO .064 → .063; BABIP .324 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Lenny Randle'71-'82 * career totals — 10 seasons, 4,427 PA	6.7	4,427	27	156	256*	323*	370*	+10	+7	8.7	9.8
/162	664	4	23	+1.5	+1.0	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Bill Almon'74-'88 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,659 PA	5.5	3,659	36	128	249*	303*	364*	+12	+15	8.2	8.9
/162	664	7	23	+2.2	+2.7	1.5	pk7: 10
#4Mike Avileslast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,234 PA	4.9	3,234	60	78	261	295	376	+13	+4	5.8	7.2
/162	664	12	16	+2.7	+0.8	1.2	pk7: 9
#5Jerry Royster'73-'88 * career totals — 13 seasons, 4,732 PA	7.1	4,732	40	189	244*	313*	357*	+15	+18	4.9	7.0
/162	664	6	27	+2.1	+2.6	0.7	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	6.0	4,008	42	121	260	308	345	+16	+24	6.4	6.0
/162	664	7	20	+2.6	+3.9	1.1	pk7: 6
#6Kevin Newmanlast yr '25 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,343 PA	3.5	2,343	28	47	259	300	355	+20	+8	5.1	5.5
/162	664	8	13	+5.7	+2.2	1.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (OGILVIE)	32	55	35	50	45	247/300/326	79	292	2	8	17%	6%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gil Velazquez 2012 · AAA	32	50→57	39→45	50	46	238/285/328	91	282	6	14	18%	6%	74	-0.6	247/303/312	65	296	4	8	17%	7%	76	-0.4	247/307/292	45	296	2	5	16%	8%	71	-0.6
✕Heber Gomez 2010 · AAA	32	53→61	38→40	49→50	50	252/304/327	76	277	5	13	12%	6%	80	-0.1	238/282/315	77	260	5	11	10%	5%	70	-0.9	245/283/319	73	272	3	8	11%	4%	68	-0.5
✕Andrew Romine 2018 · MLB	32	49→55	42→40	50→55	47	238/296/343	105	287	8	15	20%	7%	82	-0.0	228/278/327	99	281	9	16	21%	6%	71	-0.8	225/270/298	73	285	6	14	22%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Eric Bruntlett 2010 · MLB	32	45→51	38→40	52→55	49	214/280/297	83	256	5	17	18%	7%	65	-1.2	204/260/313	109	258	11	10	24%	6%	61	-1.5	186/237/280	95	236	10	9	25%	5%	42	-2.2
✕Wilson Valdez 2009 · MLB	31	56→62	38→40	48→55	51	267/318/348	80	297	6	17	12%	7%	90	+0.6	244/287/319	75	278	4	11	13%	5%	72	-0.7	244/284/315	71	277	3	10	13%	5%	68	-0.6
✕Alexi Casilla 2016 · MLB	32	50→60	39→40	50→60	45	241/278/324	84	281	6	17	17%	5%	70	-0.9	226/267/315	89	273	7	12	19%	5%	63	-1.3	210/246/272	62	255	3	9	18%	4%	41	-1.4
✕Willie Bloomquist 2011 · MLB	33	54→55	40	56→60	49	258/305/355	96	296	7	26	15%	6%	86	+0.3	268/308/354	86	309	6	19	14%	5%	87	+0.4	293/322/363	70	348	1	7	15%	4%	94	+0.3
✕Amadeo Zazueta 2017 · AAA	31	56→61	37→40	49→50	45	263/296/339	76	292	5	14	12%	4%	79	-0.2	266/297/365	99	292	8	11	12%	4%	86	+0.3	271/302/371	100	293	8	8	10%	3%	87	+0.3
✕Dixon Machado 2023 · MLB	31	52→57	39→45	48→55	50	249/309/334	85	289	6	10	16%	7%	84	+0.1	219/297/306	87	264	8	7	19%	9%	74	-0.6	196/285/266	70	239	7	4	20%	10%	59	-0.8
●Carlos Alberto Gastelum 2012 · AAA	32	53→63	39→40	51→55	49	253/302/342	89	279	7	15	12%	6%	83	+0.1	279/322/359	80	321	6	8	14%	5%	94	+0.9	289/331/355	66	334	4	4	14%	5%	93	+0.6
✕Gregorio Vazquez 2010 · AAA	31	54→56	37→40	49→55	47	250/290/325	75	279	3	16	12%	5%	74	-0.5	220/269/287	67	246	4	13	12%	5%	58	-1.7	191/244/216	25	213	0	11	10%	5%	30	-2.3
✕Christian Colón 2021 · MLB	32	49→59	42→45	49→55	49	235/290/346	110	259	9	19	14%	6%	80	-0.2	216/279/338	122	239	14	10	16%	6%	75	-0.5	196/263/306	111	209	14	5	15%	6%	60	-1.1
✕Pablo Ozuna 2007 · MLB	32	59	40	50→55	47	280/322/381	101	304	6	22	11%	4%	99	+1.3	255/298/352	97	281	7	16	12%	4%	84	+0.1	254/289/337	83	288	2	15	12%	3%	74	-0.1
✕Emmanuel Burriss 2016 · AAA	31	53→56	38→40	52→60	48	247/296/328	81	275	5	18	12%	5%	78	-0.3	224/262/292	68	258	4	14	14%	4%	56	-1.9	207/233/238	31	241	0	13	14%	2%	30	-1.2
✕Shane Robinson 2017 · MLB	32	48→56	38→45	51→55	49	225/281/303	78	260	5	15	15%	7%	67	-1.1	233/280/313	80	265	5	18	14%	6%	68	-1.0	233/280/306	73	261	5	18	13%	6%	65	-0.7
✕Enrique Osorio 2017 · AAA	32	55	39→45	48→50	48	263/307/346	83	287	7	16	11%	5%	86	+0.3	242/288/321	79	282	5	12	15%	5%	73	-0.6	233/276/299	67	276	3	11	16%	4%	62	-0.6
✕Jake Elmore 2019 · MLB	32	49→59	35→40	49→55	52	229/303/286	57	280	3	16	18%	8%	71	-0.8	241/297/334	93	286	7	9	17%	7%	80	-0.2	254/298/354	100	296	7	3	16%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Daniel Robertson 2018 · MLB	32	53→58	38→40	49→55	48	250/294/332	82	281	5	15	14%	6%	78	-0.3	232/295/343	111	273	10	15	18%	7%	82	-0.0	216/288/326	110	254	10	16	18%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Irving Falu 2014 · MLB	31	53→62	38→40	52→55	48	252/290/332	81	283	4	19	13%	5%	76	-0.4	244/285/320	76	272	5	16	12%	5%	71	-0.8	251/289/337	86	274	7	13	11%	5%	74	-0.4
✕Luis Ordaz 2008 · AAA	32	52	39→40	47→50	42	250/277/336	86	288	6	11	16%	3%	72	-0.7	241/274/344	103	286	9	12	19%	4%	73	-0.6	257/282/368	111	289	10	4	15%	2%	81	-0.0

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps