Kade Anderson — OGILVIE

Kade Anderson P Arkansas Travelers

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 179 lbs AA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.9 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 110 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7987vR 96

ERA3.38

FIP3.28

K%27.3%

BB%4.7%

K-BB%22.5%

ROS IP110

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5555

CMD4555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p4821.9%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Arb-1	$13M	+2.2	$15M	+$5M
2030	Arb-2	$24M	+2.8	$19M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$35M	+2.8	$18M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$38M		$63M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	479	167	22	8	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+4.4
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	479	167	22	8	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+4.4
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	479	167	22	8	100%	5.2	34.9%	4.6%	30.3%	1.7%	1.81	1.83	+5.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	7	36	146	32	9	4	100%	5.1	21.9%	6.2%	15.8%	2.7%	3.79	3.52	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SEA	21	21	110	464	127	22	13	100%	5.2	27.3%	4.7%	22.5%	2.7%	3.38	3.28	+2.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	145	612	167	29	17	100%	5.6	27.3%	4.8%	22.5%	2.7%	3.36	3.28	+2.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	165	696	190	34	19	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.9%	22.4%	2.7%	3.35	3.30	+3.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	175	739	201	37	20	100%	6.0	27.2%	5.0%	22.2%	2.8%	3.35	3.32	+3.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	172	728	197	37	20	100%	5.9	27.1%	5.1%	22.0%	2.8%	3.38	3.39	+3.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	167	706	190	37	21	100%	6.0	27.0%	5.3%	21.7%	2.9%	3.43	3.47	+2.9
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	160	674	178	37	21	100%	5.9	26.4%	5.5%	20.9%	3.1%	3.55	3.63	+2.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	150	634	163	37	21	100%	6.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	3.3%	3.72	3.84	+1.9
2035	31	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	140	591	147	36	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	6.1%	18.8%	3.5%	3.93	4.07	+1.4
2036	32	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	130	547	132	36	20	100%	5.9	24.1%	6.5%	17.6%	3.7%	4.17	4.32	+0.9
2037	33	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	119	502	117	35	20	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.0%	16.3%	4.0%	4.43	4.60	+0.4
2038	34	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	108	456	102	34	20	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	4.3%	4.72	4.91	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	70	296	81	14	8	100%	5.8	27.3%	4.8%	22.5%	2.7%	3.32	3.24	+1.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	114	481	131	23	13	100%	6.0	27.3%	4.9%	22.4%	2.7%	3.31	3.26	+2.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	142	600	163	30	16	100%	5.9	27.2%	5.0%	22.2%	2.7%	3.31	3.28	+2.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	25	25	149	629	170	32	17	100%	6.0	27.1%	5.1%	22.0%	2.7%	3.34	3.35	+2.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	25	25	150	633	171	33	18	100%	6.0	27.0%	5.3%	21.7%	2.8%	3.39	3.43	+2.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	146	616	163	34	18	100%	6.1	26.4%	5.5%	20.9%	3.0%	3.51	3.59	+2.2
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	139	587	151	34	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	3.2%	3.68	3.80	+1.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	131	553	138	34	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	6.1%	18.8%	3.4%	3.88	4.02	+1.3
2036	32	MLB CTX	SEA	20	20	123	519	125	34	19	100%	6.2	24.1%	6.5%	17.6%	3.6%	4.12	4.27	+0.8
2037	33	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	113	477	111	33	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	7.0%	16.3%	3.9%	4.37	4.54	+0.4
2038	34	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	98	414	93	31	17	100%	6.1	22.4%	7.5%	14.9%	4.2%	4.66	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		237	237	1409	5944	1527	342	187	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.7%	19.9%	3.1%	3.69	3.38	+26.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	49	27	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.7%	19.9%	3.1%	3.69	3.38	+3.7
Career	—	MLE		25	25	129	479	141	23	9	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+23.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	743	219	36	14	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kade Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.28	27.3%	4.7%	2.7%	—	3.30	27.3%	22.4%	485	+0.02	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	72
James Paxton L 2013 · 3.09 FIP	24	SP	3.09	22.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.197	3.34	21.2%	14.3%	313	+0.25	2.46	1,022	70
Cody Bradford L 2021 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	24.6%	5.9%	3.4%	.345	4.08	20.6%	15.0%	325	+0.45	3.37	466	69
Joe Palumbo L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	22.8%	6.0%	2.3%	.292	4.40	27.3%	16.0%	97	+1.18	1.40	234	68
Colton Gordon L 2022 · 2.73 FIP	23	SP-	2.73	28.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.277	4.39	20.7%	13.3%	394	+1.66	2.73	586	68
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	67
Kyle Young L 2019 · 3.06 FIP	21	SP	3.06	22.9%	1.4%	3.1%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	100	66
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	66
Noah Cameron L 2022 · 2.96 FIP	23	SP	2.96	28.6%	7.7%	2.4%	.336	4.23	22.2%	14.5%	407	+1.27	2.96	644	65
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	65
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.97	20.7%	7.9%	156	+2.24	2.73	335	64
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	64
Brant Hurter L 2022 · 2.84 FIP	23	SP-	2.84	23.7%	5.5%	1.9%	.337	3.33	21.5%	14.6%	298	+0.49	2.84	440	63
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	61
John King L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	24	SP	2.85	18.1%	3.9%	1.4%	.310	3.90	17.4%	11.3%	125	+1.05	2.85	439	60
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	60
Sean Sullivan L 2024 · 3.05 FIP	22	SP	3.05	21.9%	3.8%	2.4%	.275	3.97	18.4%	11.2%	181	+0.92	3.05	296	59
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	59
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	59
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.9	137	25.9%	5.6%	1.22	3.68
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.96	3.71
Yu Darvish ('25)	8.9	137	28.4%	7.7%	1.17	3.65
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32