Kade Anderson

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 23 LHP 6'2" / 179 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 2.2 · 2028

Overview

AASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	25	25	129	1.81	1.83	34.9%	4.6%	6.1	K 29.5% · BB 4.9% · FIP 2.24
2027PROJ	23	MLBSEA	10	10	56	3.37	3.26	27.3%	4.6%	1.5
2028PROJ83% MLB	24	MLBSEA	15	15	85	3.31	3.23	27.4%	4.7%	2.2
2029PROJ89% MLB	25	MLBSEA	17	17	98	3.30	3.25	27.4%	4.8%	2.5

Last 1 season WAR 6.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 6.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.215First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$10M2031Arb-2$16M2032Arb-3$22M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs58

K%48

FB Velo36

Form3.60 ERA (proj 3.37) · K 21.8% (proj 27.3%) · BB 5.6% (proj 4.6%) ▼▼ last 60d · 30 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR1.7 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 31, comp-based) · star 15% · didn't stick 51%

CompsTaylor Varnell (age 23) · James Paxton (age 24) · Cody Bradford (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7987vR 95

ERA3.37

FIP3.26

K%27.3%

BB%4.6%

K-BB%22.7%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$62M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p4424.4%

p4821.9%

xwOBA vs

p580.304

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.215 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$12M	+$11M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$16M	+$16M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$17M	+$17M
2030	Arb-1	$10M	+2.7	$18M	+$11M
2031	Arb-2	$16M	+2.6	$16M	+$5M
2032	Arb-3	$22M	+2.5	$14M	+$0.9M
Totals		$50M		$93M	+$60M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	479	167	22	8	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+5.3
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	479	167	22	8	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+5.3
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	479	167	22	8	100%	5.2	34.9%	4.6%	30.3%	1.7%	1.81	1.83	+6.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	7	36	146	32	9	4	100%	5.1	21.9%	6.2%	15.8%	2.7%	3.79	3.52	+0.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SEA	10	10	56	236	65	11	6	100%	5.6	27.3%	4.6%	22.7%	2.7%	3.37	3.26	+1.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	102	432	118	20	12	100%	5.7	27.4%	4.7%	22.6%	2.7%	3.35	3.27	+2.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	110	463	127	22	13	100%	5.8	27.4%	4.8%	22.5%	2.7%	3.34	3.29	+2.8
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	115	487	133	24	13	100%	6.1	27.3%	4.9%	22.4%	2.8%	3.34	3.31	+3.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	19	19	114	480	130	24	13	100%	6.0	27.2%	5.1%	22.1%	2.8%	3.37	3.37	+2.8
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	110	462	125	24	13	100%	6.1	27.0%	5.2%	21.8%	2.9%	3.42	3.46	+2.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	101	426	113	23	13	100%	5.9	26.4%	5.4%	21.0%	3.1%	3.54	3.62	+2.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	89	375	96	21	12	100%	5.9	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	3.3%	3.71	3.82	+1.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	74	313	78	19	11	100%	6.2	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	3.5%	3.92	4.05	+1.2
2036	32	MLB MLE	SEA	10	10	58	244	59	16	9	100%	5.8	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	3.7%	4.15	4.31	+0.7
2037	33	MLB MLE	SEA	7	7	42	175	41	12	7	100%	5.9	23.3%	6.9%	16.4%	4.0%	4.41	4.59	+0.4
2038	34	MLB MLE	SEA	4	4	27	114	25	8	5	100%	6.7	22.4%	7.4%	15.0%	4.3%	4.70	4.89	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	85	359	98	17	10	100%	5.7	27.4%	4.7%	22.6%	2.7%	3.31	3.23	+2.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	98	414	113	20	11	100%	5.8	27.4%	4.8%	22.5%	2.7%	3.30	3.25	+2.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	106	448	122	22	12	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.9%	22.4%	2.7%	3.30	3.27	+2.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	18	18	106	448	122	23	12	100%	5.9	27.2%	5.1%	22.1%	2.7%	3.33	3.33	+2.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	104	439	119	23	12	100%	6.1	27.0%	5.2%	21.8%	2.8%	3.38	3.42	+2.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	96	405	107	22	12	100%	6.0	26.4%	5.4%	21.0%	3.0%	3.50	3.58	+2.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	84	355	91	20	11	100%	6.0	25.7%	5.7%	20.0%	3.2%	3.67	3.78	+1.6
2035	31	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	70	296	74	18	10	100%	5.8	25.0%	6.1%	18.9%	3.4%	3.87	4.00	+1.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	55	232	56	15	8	100%	6.1	24.2%	6.5%	17.7%	3.6%	4.10	4.26	+0.7
2037	33	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	39	165	38	11	6	100%	6.5	23.3%	6.9%	16.4%	3.9%	4.35	4.53	+0.4
2038	34	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	24	101	23	8	4	100%	6.0	22.4%	7.4%	15.0%	4.2%	4.64	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	153	905	3815	997	208	114	100%	5.9	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	3.0%	3.56	3.23	+24.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	843	220	46	25	100%	5.9	26.1%	5.4%	20.7%	3.0%	3.56	3.23	+5.4
Career	—	MLE		25	25	129	479	141	23	9	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+21.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	39	200	743	219	36	14	100%	5.2	29.5%	4.9%	24.6%	1.9%	1.81	2.24	+4.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 93 IPFIP 0.83 → 1.66 (+0.83)K% 40.5% → 32.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.54%	—	×0.810	32.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.90%	—	×1.100	4.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 0.83 → 1.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kade Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	3.29	27.3%	22.5%	327	+0.03	—	—	—
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	71
James Paxton L 2013 · 3.09 FIP	24	SP	3.09	22.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.197	3.34	21.2%	14.3%	313	+0.25	2.46	1,022	70
Cody Bradford L 2021 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	24.6%	5.9%	3.4%	.345	4.08	20.6%	15.0%	325	+0.45	3.37	466	68
Colton Gordon L 2022 · 2.73 FIP	23	SP-	2.73	28.4%	4.7%	2.6%	.277	4.39	20.7%	13.3%	394	+1.66	2.73	586	68
Joe Palumbo L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	22.8%	6.0%	2.3%	.292	4.40	27.3%	16.0%	97	+1.18	1.40	234	68
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.3%	288	+0.97	3.62	454	66
Kyle Young L 2019 · 3.06 FIP	21	SP	3.06	22.9%	1.4%	3.1%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	100	66
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	65
Noah Cameron L 2022 · 2.96 FIP	23	SP	2.96	28.6%	7.7%	2.4%	.336	4.23	22.2%	14.5%	407	+1.27	2.96	644	65
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	64
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.97	20.7%	7.9%	156	+2.24	2.73	335	63
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.90	16.7%	7.0%	354	+2.43	3.47	522	63
Brant Hurter L 2022 · 2.84 FIP	23	SP-	2.84	23.7%	5.5%	1.9%	.337	3.33	21.5%	14.6%	298	+0.49	2.84	440	62
Isaiah Coupet L 2024 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP-	3.52	23.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.363	6.24	10.4%	-6.7%	16	+2.72	3.52	102	60
John King L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	24	SP	2.85	18.1%	3.9%	1.4%	.310	3.90	17.4%	11.3%	125	+1.05	2.85	439	60
Sean Sullivan L 2024 · 3.05 FIP	22	SP	3.05	21.9%	3.8%	2.4%	.275	3.97	18.4%	11.2%	181	+0.92	3.05	296	59
Cliff Lee L 2003 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	21.0%	9.0%	3.3%	.243	4.34	17.2%	9.8%	582	+0.03	2.49	2,146	59
Tony Cingrani L 2013 · 3.65 FIP	24	SP-	3.65	28.6%	10.0%	3.1%	.238	4.26	21.8%	9.1%	184	+0.61	1.68	354	58
Matt Wilkinson L 2024 · 3.23 FIP	21	SP	3.23	28.5%	9.2%	2.5%	.252	4.47	20.8%	11.3%	219	+1.24	3.23	337	58
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.3	81	26.3%	5.4%	1.18	3.58
Rick Aguilera ('85-'00, 22 WAR*)	6.5	81	24.3%*	6.1%*	1.18*	3.65*
Collin McHugh ('23)	5.0	90	23.3%	6.7%	0.96	3.72
Rollie Fingers ('68-'85, 28 WAR*)	8.5	106	27.0%*	6.9%*	0.98*	3.55*
Alejandro Peña ('81-'96, 15 WAR*)	5.3	81	24.7%*	7.5%*	0.96*	3.61*
Keith Foulke ('08)	3.9	72	22.4%	6.1%	1.08	3.33
Yusmeiro Petit ('21)	4.5	70	20.7%	5.5%	1.36	3.93