Kade Anderson — OGILVIE

Kade Anderson P Arkansas Travelers

Age 22 LHP 6'2" / 179 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.3 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION114 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 7684vR 92

ERA3.24

FIP3.09

K%28.3%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%22.2%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 116 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$28M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5555

CMD4555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3793.6

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p2418.4%

xwOBA vs

p530.309

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.3	$1M	+$1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2029	Arb-1	$11M	+2.3	$15M	+$7M
2030	Arb-2	$20M	+2.3	$14M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-3	$28M	+2.2	$12M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$32M		$70M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	4	21	87	16	8	4	100%	5.2	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	4.6%	4.29	5.20	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	22	22	114	420	151	21	8	100%	5.2	29.8%	5.3%	24.5%	2.1%	1.65	2.42	—
YTD	22	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	22	22	114	420	151	21	8	100%	5.2	29.8%	5.3%	24.5%	2.1%	1.65	2.42	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	AA RAW	SEA	18	18	93	333	135	13	4	100%	5.2	40.5%	3.9%	36.6%	1.2%	1.06	0.83	—
2026	22	MLB RAW	SEA	4	4	21	87	16	8	4	100%	5.2	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	4.6%	4.29	5.24	-0.1
SO FAR	22	MLB RAW	SEA	4	4	21	87	16	8	4	100%	5.2	18.4%	9.2%	9.2%	4.6%	4.29	5.24	-0.1
ROS	22	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	2	8	2	0	0	100%	1.9	28.3%	6.1%	22.2%	2.9%	3.24	3.09	+0.0
ROS	22	MLB CTX	SEA	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	28.3%	6.1%	22.2%	2.9%	3.20	3.05	+0.0
2026 TOT	22	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	116	428	153	21	8	—	—	35.8%	5.0%	30.8%	1.9%	1.68	2.43	+3.7
FULL	22	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	23	97	153	21	8	—	—	158.4%	22.2%	136.2%	8.5%	8.51	-2.79	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	150	634	164	42	20	100%	5.4	25.9%	6.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.97	3.86	+1.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	31	31	175	739	194	48	23	100%	5.6	26.2%	6.5%	19.7%	3.1%	3.88	3.80	+2.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	30	30	177	748	197	48	23	100%	5.9	26.4%	6.5%	19.9%	3.1%	3.82	3.76	+2.4
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	30	30	177	748	198	48	23	100%	5.9	26.5%	6.5%	20.0%	3.1%	3.78	3.75	+2.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	174	737	195	48	23	100%	6.0	26.5%	6.5%	19.9%	3.1%	3.78	3.79	+2.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	169	715	188	48	23	100%	6.0	26.4%	6.7%	19.7%	3.2%	3.84	3.87	+2.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	162	683	178	47	23	100%	6.0	26.1%	6.9%	19.2%	3.4%	3.94	4.00	+1.7
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	152	642	165	46	23	100%	6.1	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	3.6%	4.08	4.18	+1.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	142	598	152	45	23	100%	5.9	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	3.8%	4.26	4.38	+0.9
2036	32	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	131	554	138	44	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.0%	16.9%	4.1%	4.47	4.61	+0.4
2037	33	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	120	508	124	43	22	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	4.3%	4.70	4.86	+0.1
2038	34	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	110	462	110	41	21	100%	6.1	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	4.6%	4.96	5.13	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	143	604	156	40	18	100%	5.3	25.9%	6.7%	19.2%	3.1%	3.93	3.82	+1.8
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	30	30	166	701	184	46	21	100%	5.5	26.2%	6.5%	19.7%	3.0%	3.84	3.76	+2.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	29	29	168	709	187	46	21	100%	5.8	26.4%	6.5%	19.9%	3.0%	3.78	3.72	+2.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	168	709	188	46	21	100%	6.0	26.5%	6.5%	20.0%	3.0%	3.74	3.71	+2.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	166	701	186	46	21	100%	5.9	26.5%	6.5%	19.9%	3.0%	3.74	3.75	+2.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	161	680	179	45	21	100%	6.0	26.4%	6.7%	19.7%	3.1%	3.80	3.83	+2.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	154	650	170	45	21	100%	5.9	26.1%	6.9%	19.2%	3.3%	3.89	3.95	+1.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	144	608	157	44	21	100%	6.0	25.8%	7.2%	18.6%	3.5%	4.03	4.13	+1.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	135	570	145	43	21	100%	6.1	25.4%	7.6%	17.8%	3.7%	4.21	4.33	+0.8
2036	32	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	125	528	131	42	21	100%	6.0	24.9%	8.0%	16.9%	4.0%	4.41	4.55	+0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	114	481	117	40	20	100%	6.0	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	4.2%	4.64	4.80	+0.1
2038	34	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	99	418	100	37	19	100%	6.2	23.9%	8.9%	15.0%	4.5%	4.90	5.07	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		300	300	1766	7454	1917	529	253	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.1%	18.6%	3.4%	4.02	3.69	+25.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	217	60	29	100%	5.9	25.7%	7.1%	18.6%	3.4%	4.02	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		22	22	114	420	125	22	9	100%	5.2	29.8%	5.3%	24.5%	2.1%	1.65	2.42	+17.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		38	38	200	735	219	39	16	100%	5.2	29.8%	5.3%	24.5%	2.1%	1.65	2.42	+1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kade Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.58	27.6%	6.3%	3.0%	—	3.80	26.2%	19.6%	502	+0.22	—	—	—
Andre Davis L 2016 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP	4.14	19.3%	5.4%	3.6%	.320	4.51	17.0%	8.8%	98	+0.37	4.14	154	82
Taylor Varnell L 2018 · 2.89 FIP	23	SP	2.89	22.5%	6.8%	1.5%	.252	3.95	19.5%	9.5%	202	+1.06	2.89	248	81
Andrew Suárez L 2015 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP	4.12	21.6%	4.0%	4.3%	.297	3.87	18.0%	11.7%	476	-0.25	3.52	717	77
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	76
Austin Warner L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	23	SP	4.01	18.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.291	4.43	17.6%	9.4%	284	+0.42	3.81	491	74
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	74
Reid Detmers L 2021 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP	4.17	29.9%	9.1%	4.5%	.335	4.09	25.1%	16.5%	443	-0.08	2.77	749	73
Brendan McKay L 2018 · 2.44 FIP	22	SP	2.44	25.7%	5.4%	1.5%	.299	2.90	28.6%	21.4%	123	+0.46	2.44	213	72
Adam Seminaris L 2021 · 3.94 FIP	22	SP	3.94	22.7%	8.3%	3.1%	.357	3.75	18.2%	9.3%	230	-0.19	3.00	577	72
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	71
Jake Eder L 2021 · 2.73 FIP	22	SP	2.73	27.9%	10.3%	1.2%	.253	4.98	20.6%	7.7%	156	+2.25	2.73	335	71
John Kilichowski L 2016 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	17.1%	3.5%	3.6%	.295	5.90	15.7%	-0.6%	82	+1.80	4.10	115	70
Jordan Wicks L 2022 · 3.83 FIP	22	SP	3.83	23.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.329	4.15	20.6%	12.8%	278	+0.32	2.97	469	70
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	69
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	69
Sam Weatherly L 2021 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	24.0%	12.8%	2.5%	.323	4.14	21.9%	8.9%	41	+0.07	4.07	209	69
Drew Parrish L 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SP-	3.47	24.1%	7.9%	2.6%	.261	5.91	16.6%	6.8%	354	+2.44	3.47	522	68
Brandon Williamson L 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP	3.62	29.7%	9.0%	3.4%	.340	4.59	18.6%	7.2%	288	+0.97	3.62	439	68
Anthony Veneziano L 2021 · 4.27 FIP	23	SP	4.27	24.9%	10.8%	3.5%	.298	4.97	18.2%	8.3%	358	+0.70	3.57	534	68
Cody Bradford L 2021 · 3.63 FIP	23	SP	3.63	24.6%	5.9%	3.4%	.345	4.09	20.4%	14.9%	325	+0.46	3.37	456	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.3	143	25.8%	7.1%	1.34	4.07
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01