Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 15 | 15 | 71 | 287 | 99 | 27 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 27.9% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 1.2% | 1.77 | 2.73 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 15 | 15 | 71 | 287 | 99 | 27 | 3 | 100% | 4.8 | 34.5% | 9.4% | 25.1% | 1.0% | 1.77 | 2.01 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 57 | 267 | 70 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 6.35 | 5.24 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 57 | 267 | 70 | 36 | 7 | 100% | 4.0 | 26.2% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 6.35 | 4.14 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 24 | 111 | 509 | 123 | 59 | 15 | 96% | 4.4 | 20.3% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 6.57 | 5.00 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 24 | 111 | 509 | 123 | 59 | 15 | 96% | 4.4 | 24.2% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 6.57 | 4.24 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 16 | 89 | 395 | 77 | 28 | 18 | 67% | 3.7 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 5.4% | 6.09 | 5.54 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 16 | 89 | 395 | 77 | 28 | 18 | 67% | 3.7 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 12.4% | 4.6% | 6.09 | 4.95 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 22 | 1 | 25 | 104 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 5% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 3.96 | 3.75 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 265 | 47 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 4.91 | 5.36 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 47 | 24 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 4.91 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 88 | 369 | 68 | 36 | 12 | — | — | 18.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.64 | 4.90 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 67 | 282 | 68 | 36 | 12 | — | — | 24.1% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 4.1% | 6.10 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 50 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.12 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 47 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 5.27 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 43 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 5.43 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 47 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 5.12 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 45 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 5.27 | 5.42 | -0.6 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 41 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 5.43 | 5.57 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 29 | 263 | 1109 | 197 | 105 | 44 | 28% | 2.6 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 4.99 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 22 | 200 | 844 | 150 | 80 | 33 | 29% | 2.6 | 17.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 100 | 70 | 353 | 1562 | 333 | 178 | 55 | 70% | 3.5 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 4.68 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 40 | 200 | 886 | 189 | 101 | 31 | 70% | 3.5 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Eder (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 4.0% | — | 5.44 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 185 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Gainey L 2025 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 78 |
| Aaron Rozek L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 4.31 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 300 | -0.22 | 3.88 | 523 | 73 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 69 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.39 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 310 | 68 |
| Matt Walker L 2024 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 67 |
| Brian Holmes L 2025 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 67 |
| Chris Reed L 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 67 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 66 |
| Zac Lowther L 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.76 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | .436 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 375 | 66 |
| Michael Sansone L 2025 · 5.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.64 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 5.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 255 | 66 |
| Sean Gilmartin L 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.94 | 14.9% | 7.3% | 4.0% | .351 | 4.60 | 18.9% | 10.4% | 154 | -0.34 | 2.33 | 386 | 66 |
| Ethan Evanko L 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.95 | 17.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 113 | 66 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 65 |
| Cam Vieaux L 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.09 | 18.0% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .288 | 4.54 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 122 | -0.55 | 4.22 | 620 | 65 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 65 |
| Colten Schmidt L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 163 | 64 |
| Hunter Barco L 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 20.3% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 212 | 64 |
| Ryan Kellogg L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.23 | 12.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 446 | 64 |
| Mitch Stallings L 2025 · 5.92 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.92 | 16.8% | 11.5% | 5.1% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.18 | 108 | 63 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2024 · 5.16 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.16 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 4.3% | .418 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 153 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.58 | 5.17 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |