John King

P Miami Marlins

Age 32 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBRP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	29	MIX2 levels	62	0	65	2.89	3.57	15.9%	4.8%	0.8	K 15.3% · BB 5.2% · FIP 3.66
2025	30	MIX3 levels	55	0	52	4.67	4.98	13.4%	6.3%	-0.3	K 12.6% · BB 6.3% · FIP 4.96
2026	31	MIX2 levels	54	1	57	3.97	4.53	16.1%	7.4%	0.0	K 16.8% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.70
2027PROJ	32	MLBMIA	35	0	37	4.61	4.96	15.0%	7.3%	-0.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBMIA	17	0	18	4.99	5.24	14.1%	7.8%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs52

K%13

FB Velo10

CompsTommy Phelps (age 31) · Adam Liberatore (age 31) · Chad Zerbe (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.61

FIP4.96

K%15.0%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP37

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p1316.8%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	23	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	1.7	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.57	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	1.7	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.70	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	97	383	91	13	5	100%	5.1	18.1%	3.9%	14.1%	1.4%	2.40	2.85	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	97	383	91	13	5	100%	5.1	23.8%	3.4%	20.4%	1.3%	2.40	2.30	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	6	0	10	51	9	4	2	0%	1.7	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	3.6%	6.10	4.61	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	6	0	10	51	9	4	2	0%	1.7	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	3.9%	6.10	5.04	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	48	201	42	12	3	0%	1.7	20.7%	5.7%	15.0%	1.4%	3.38	2.87	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	48	201	42	12	3	0%	1.7	20.9%	6.0%	14.9%	1.5%	3.38	2.91	+0.9
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	69	302	48	18	10	0%	1.3	15.2%	6.1%	9.1%	3.4%	4.85	4.48	+0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	69	302	48	18	10	0%	1.3	15.9%	6.0%	9.9%	3.3%	4.85	4.38	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	59	254	33	16	3	6%	1.3	12.3%	6.1%	6.2%	1.3%	3.51	3.53	+0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	59	254	33	16	3	6%	1.3	13.0%	6.3%	6.7%	1.2%	3.51	3.46	+0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	65	270	43	13	6	0%	1.1	15.3%	5.2%	10.1%	2.2%	2.89	3.66	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	65	270	43	13	6	0%	1.1	15.3%	5.2%	10.1%	2.2%	2.89	3.66	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	65	270	43	13	6	0%	1.1	15.9%	4.8%	11.1%	2.2%	2.89	3.57	+0.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	52	239	32	15	9	0%	0.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.9%	4.67	4.96	-0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	52	239	32	15	9	0%	0.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.9%	4.67	4.96	-0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	0	52	239	32	15	9	0%	0.9	13.4%	6.3%	7.1%	3.8%	4.67	4.98	-0.3
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	57	230	37	17	8	2%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.7%	3.97	4.70	-0.1
2026	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	1	57	230	37	17	8	2%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.7%	3.97	4.70	-0.1
2026	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	1	57	230	37	17	8	2%	1.0	16.1%	7.4%	8.7%	3.5%	3.97	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			264	1	303	1290	198	78	32	0%	1.1	15.3%	6.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.83	3.94	+2.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	MIA	35	0	37	156	23	11	5	0%	1.1	15.0%	7.3%	7.6%	3.3%	4.61	4.96	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	18	0	19	81	11	6	3	0%	1.1	14.1%	7.8%	6.3%	3.6%	4.99	5.24	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	11	6	3	0%	1.1	14.1%	7.8%	6.3%	3.6%	4.99	5.24	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		281	1	321	1367	209	84	35	0%	1.1	15.3%	6.1%	9.1%	2.5%	3.90	3.98	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		175	1	200	851	130	52	22	0%	1.1	15.3%	6.1%	9.1%	2.5%	3.90	3.98	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		326	24	459	1939	308	112	48	7%	1.4	15.9%	5.8%	10.1%	2.5%	3.63	3.84	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	10	200	845	134	49	21	7%	1.4	15.9%	5.8%	10.1%	2.5%	3.63	3.84	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARound Rock Express · 7 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.74 (+0.23)K% 12.1% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.12%	—	×0.860	10.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.06%	—	×0.900	5.45%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.33%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 5 IPFIP 3.68 → 4.14 (+0.46)K% 22.7% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.73%	—	×0.860	19.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×0.900	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷1.020	×1.100	4.90%

Result: FIP 3.68 → 4.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAARound Rock Express · 22 IPFIP 3.32 → 3.43 (+0.12)K% 13.4% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.40%	—	×0.860	11.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×0.900	5.57%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.035	×1.100	1.10%

Result: FIP 3.32 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAARound Rock Express · 17 IPFIP 5.74 → 6.53 (+0.79)K% 22.5% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.50%	—	×0.880	19.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×1.050	9.19%
HR / BF /BF	6.25%	÷0.957	×1.100	7.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 5.74 → 6.53, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 71 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.08 (+0.59)K% 22.7% → 17.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.71%	—	×0.770	17.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.03%	—	×1.150	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.47%	÷1.152	×1.250	1.59%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AHickory Crawdads · 26 IPFIP 1.60 → 2.27 (+0.67)K% 26.4% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.36%	—	×0.740	19.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.82%	—	×1.180	2.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.91%	÷1.183	×1.300	1.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 137).

Result: FIP 1.60 → 2.27, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	15.0%	7.3%	3.3%	—	5.24	14.1%	6.3%	19	+0.28	—	—	—
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	74
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	73
Chad Zerbe L 2003 · 3.89 FIP	31	SU	3.89	7.8%	5.5%	1.4%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	145	71
Jack Taschner L 2010 · 4.74 FIP	32	SU	4.74	18.1%	11.7%	3.1%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	189	71
Valerio De Los Santos L 2005 · 5.03 FIP	32	SU	5.03	15.5%	8.7%	3.9%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	239	70
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	69
Tom Martin L 2001 · 5.68 FIP	31	SU	5.68	14.1%	9.4%	4.7%	.311	4.25	19.8%	11.1%	96	-1.43	3.40	303	68
Yorkis Perez L 2000 · 4.85 FIP	32	SU	4.85	18.9%	10.8%	3.6%	.284	4.54	20.8%	10.0%	27	-0.31	3.18	269	68
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	68
Jamie Walker L 2003 · 4.26 FIP	32	SU	4.26	16.5%	5.9%	3.3%	.256	3.76	17.6%	14.1%	161	-0.50	3.48	442	67
Jeremy Bleich L 2019 · 4.41 FIP	32	SW	4.41	20.1%	7.0%	3.9%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	241	65
Dan Runzler L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	32	SU	4.20	17.5%	11.0%	2.1%	.325	4.84	16.0%	3.0%	27	+0.64	2.84	187	62
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	60
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	60
Blaine Hardy L 2019 · 5.81 FIP	32	SU	5.81	15.9%	7.1%	5.7%	.215	5.14	19.5%	9.0%	68	-0.67	2.74	456	60
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	60
Tommy Layne L 2017 · 5.32 FIP	32	SU	5.32	13.3%	14.4%	2.8%	.253	3.83	21.8%	14.4%	64	-1.49	0.55	218	59
Pedro Borbón L 2000 · 5.20 FIP	32	SU	5.20	13.6%	15.5%	2.4%	.274	4.23	21.1%	15.5%	104	-0.97	2.26	264	59
Luis Perez L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	30	SU	4.00	15.2%	12.6%	1.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	173	58
Chris Michalak L 2002 · 4.71 FIP	31	SU	4.71	7.0%	11.3%	1.4%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	186	57

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	45	15.2%	6.7%	1.02	3.97
Manny Corpas ('13)	1.9	53	16.6%	7.0%	0.91	4.14
Todd Coffey ('12)	2.2	63	17.2%	7.2%	1.01	4.10
T.J. McFarland ('25)	2.7	50	13.7%	7.3%	0.81	4.18
Tony Castillo ('88-'98, 4 WAR*)	2.6	59	18.5%*	7.3%*	0.98*	3.76*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Mike Perez ('90-'97, 3 WAR*)	1.7	58	18.5%*	8.2%*	0.88*	3.86*