John King — OGILVIE

John King P Miami Marlins

Age 31 LHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 96104vR 112

ERA4.12

FIP4.37

K%15.3%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD3535

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.5

Whiff%

p2421.7%

p1316.8%

xwOBA vs

p520.310

SL+2.3 (35%)

CH+1.3 (20%)

FB (33%)

SI (32%)

CU (11%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	1.7	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.57	—
2018	23	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	1	1	2	9	1	1	0	100%	1.7	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.70	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	97	383	91	13	5	100%	5.1	18.1%	3.9%	14.1%	1.4%	2.40	2.85	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	97	383	91	13	5	100%	5.1	23.8%	3.4%	20.4%	1.3%	2.40	2.30	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	6	0	10	51	9	4	2	0%	1.7	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	3.6%	6.10	4.61	-0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	6	0	10	51	9	4	2	0%	1.7	17.6%	7.8%	9.8%	3.9%	6.10	5.04	-0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	48	201	42	12	3	0%	1.7	20.7%	5.7%	15.0%	1.4%	3.38	2.87	+1.0
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	48	201	42	12	3	0%	1.7	20.9%	6.0%	14.9%	1.5%	3.38	2.91	+0.9
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	69	302	48	18	10	0%	1.3	15.2%	6.1%	9.1%	3.4%	4.85	4.48	+0.1
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	69	302	48	18	10	0%	1.3	15.9%	6.0%	9.9%	3.3%	4.85	4.38	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	59	254	33	16	3	6%	1.3	12.1%	6.1%	6.1%	1.3%	3.51	3.54	+0.7
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	3	59	254	33	16	3	6%	1.3	12.1%	6.1%	6.1%	1.3%	3.51	3.54	+0.7
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	3	59	254	33	16	3	6%	1.3	13.0%	6.3%	6.7%	1.2%	3.51	3.46	+0.8
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	65	270	43	13	6	0%	1.1	15.3%	5.2%	10.1%	2.2%	2.89	3.66	+0.7
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	65	270	43	13	6	0%	1.1	15.3%	5.2%	10.1%	2.2%	2.89	3.66	+0.7
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	65	270	43	13	6	0%	1.1	15.9%	4.8%	11.1%	2.2%	2.89	3.57	+0.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	52	239	32	15	9	0%	0.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.9%	4.67	4.96	-0.3
2025	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	0	52	239	32	15	9	0%	0.9	12.6%	6.3%	6.3%	3.9%	4.67	4.96	-0.3
2025	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	0	52	239	32	15	9	0%	0.9	13.4%	6.3%	7.1%	3.8%	4.67	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			264	1	303	1290	198	78	32	0%	1.1	15.3%	6.0%	9.3%	2.5%	3.83	3.94	+2.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	51	1	52	206	34	16	8	2%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.7%	4.01	4.70	-0.1
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	51	1	52	206	34	16	8	2%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.7%	4.01	4.70	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	MIA	1	0	2	9	1	1	1	0%	2.0	11.1%	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	4.50	9.67	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	MIA	50	1	50	197	33	15	7	2%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.6%	3.99	4.60	-0.0
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	MIA	50	1	50	197	33	15	7	2%	1.0	16.8%	7.6%	9.1%	3.6%	3.99	4.60	-0.0
ROS	31	MLB MLE	MIA	4	0	4	18	3	1	1	0%	1.1	15.3%	6.9%	8.4%	3.1%	4.12	4.37	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	MIA	4	0	4	17	3	1	1	0%	1.0	15.3%	6.9%	8.4%	3.1%	4.12	4.37	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	56	224	37	17	9	—	—	16.4%	7.7%	8.7%	3.8%	4.01	4.68	-0.1
FULL	31	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	54	228	37	17	9	—	—	16.1%	7.6%	8.6%	3.8%	4.16	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIA	44	0	46	196	28	14	7	0%	1.1	14.1%	7.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.87	5.08	-0.3
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	41	0	43	180	24	14	7	0%	1.0	13.3%	7.7%	5.6%	3.7%	5.16	5.36	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIA	42	0	44	186	26	13	6	0%	1.0	14.1%	7.2%	6.9%	3.4%	4.87	5.08	-0.3
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	39	0	41	173	23	13	6	0%	1.1	13.3%	7.7%	5.6%	3.7%	5.16	5.36	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		349	1	392	1666	250	106	45	0%	1.1	15.0%	6.4%	8.6%	2.7%	4.09	4.13	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		178	1	200	850	128	54	23	0%	1.1	15.0%	6.4%	8.6%	2.7%	4.09	4.13	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		323	24	454	1915	304	110	47	7%	1.4	15.8%	5.8%	10.1%	2.4%	3.63	3.83	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		142	11	200	844	134	49	21	7%	1.4	15.8%	5.8%	10.1%	2.4%	3.63	3.83	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John King (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	13.7%	6.4%	3.0%	—	5.21	13.7%	6.3%	89	+0.43	—	—	—
Dan Jennings L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	31	SU	3.88	16.6%	8.1%	2.1%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	244	78
Tony Watson L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	31	SU	4.37	21.3%	7.0%	4.0%	.227	3.43	21.4%	16.9%	187	-0.94	2.21	405	74
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	74
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	73
Brian Duensing L 2015 · 4.47 FIP	32	SU	4.47	11.5%	8.1%	2.4%	.252	3.76	20.2%	11.8%	137	-0.71	2.57	198	73
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	72
Marc Rzepczynski L 2017 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	18.2%	10.9%	1.5%	.284	5.47	15.5%	1.4%	67	+1.70	2.73	181	70
Jeremy Bleich L 2018 · 3.69 FIP	31	SU	3.69	20.3%	6.6%	2.7%	.296	4.41	20.1%	13.1%	33	+0.72	3.20	241	70
Mike Dunn L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.6%	6.2%	3.0%	.311	4.63	22.4%	8.9%	85	+0.92	3.71	181	69
Kraig Sitton L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	29	SU	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	2.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	166	68
Nick Ramirez L 2021 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	20.2%	8.0%	2.2%	.305	3.19	17.6%	11.7%	169	-0.44	2.93	478	68
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	68
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2021 · 4.98 FIP	32	SU	4.98	15.2%	7.0%	4.2%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	159	67
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	67
Chris Rusin L 2018 · 4.18 FIP	31	SU	4.18	19.5%	10.4%	2.6%	.302	5.31	12.5%	5.0%	98	+1.13	2.89	488	66
Jason Gurka L 2019 · 5.13 FIP	31	SW	5.13	15.5%	7.6%	4.3%	.382	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	183	65
Edward Paredes L 2018 · 3.81 FIP	31	SU	3.81	22.7%	11.9%	2.0%	.351	5.10	21.5%	14.2%	18	+1.29	2.36	130	64
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	64
Lucas Luetge L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	30	SU	4.96	20.6%	8.9%	4.5%	.352	2.91	22.7%	15.4%	68	-2.05	2.53	430	63
Buddy Boshers L 2019 · 3.73 FIP	31	SU	3.73	25.3%	10.4%	2.6%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	223	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	13.7%	7.1%	1.30	4.84
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43