Noah Cameron — OGILVIE

Noah Cameron P Kansas City Royals

Age 27 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 2.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION160 act + 15 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9098vR 106

ERA3.63

FIP3.93

K%21.5%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p5826.5%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

FB (29%)

SI (5%)

CU (17%)

CH (21%)

CT-0.8 (21%)

SL-3.5 (13%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.797 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$7M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.8	$3M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$10M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	66	270	99	16	6	100%	3.5	28.6%	7.7%	20.9%	2.4%	3.56	2.96	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	66	270	99	16	6	100%	3.5	36.7%	5.9%	30.7%	2.2%	3.56	2.00	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	466	132	35	19	100%	4.5	22.4%	8.4%	14.1%	5.4%	5.28	5.25	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	466	132	35	19	100%	4.5	22.4%	8.4%	14.1%	5.4%	5.28	5.25	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	107	466	132	35	19	100%	4.5	28.3%	7.5%	20.8%	4.1%	5.28	3.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	536	149	36	12	100%	5.1	22.7%	7.0%	15.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.47	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	536	149	36	12	100%	5.1	22.7%	7.0%	15.8%	2.6%	3.08	3.47	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	536	149	36	12	100%	5.1	27.8%	6.7%	21.1%	2.2%	3.08	2.84	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	171	689	152	55	22	100%	5.5	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	3.5%	3.05	4.20	+1.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	171	689	152	55	22	100%	5.5	21.1%	7.8%	13.3%	3.5%	3.05	4.20	+1.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	171	689	152	55	22	100%	5.5	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	3.2%	3.05	3.96	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			52	51	299	1225	259	92	34	98%	5.7	21.1%	7.5%	13.6%	2.8%	3.50	3.77	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	28	27	160	669	145	50	16	96%	5.7	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.64	+2.5
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	28	27	160	669	145	50	16	96%	5.7	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.6%	3.93	3.64	+2.5
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	KC	28	27	160	669	145	50	16	96%	5.7	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.4%	3.93	3.53	+2.7
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	KC	28	27	160	669	145	50	16	96%	5.7	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.4%	3.93	3.53	+2.7
ROS	27	MLB MLE	KC	2	2	15	62	13	5	2	100%	7.4	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	3.1%	3.63	3.93	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	KC	2	2	15	63	14	5	2	100%	7.5	21.5%	7.5%	14.0%	2.9%	3.50	3.80	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	KC	—	—	175	731	158	55	18	—	—	21.7%	7.5%	14.2%	2.5%	3.90	3.66	+2.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	KC	—	—	175	739	158	55	18	—	—	21.4%	7.4%	14.0%	2.4%	3.89	3.55	+2.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	KC	23	23	138	584	125	45	17	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.9%	4.06	4.22	+1.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	22	22	132	558	116	44	17	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.9%	12.9%	3.0%	4.25	4.38	+0.8
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	21	21	124	524	105	43	17	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.2%	11.9%	3.2%	4.45	4.58	+0.5
2030	31	MLB MLE	KC	19	19	116	489	94	42	17	100%	6.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.8%	3.4%	4.67	4.81	+0.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	KC	18	18	107	452	84	40	17	100%	5.9	18.5%	8.9%	9.6%	3.7%	4.91	5.07	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	KC	22	22	131	553	118	42	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	7.6%	13.7%	2.6%	3.94	4.10	+1.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	21	21	125	528	109	41	15	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.9%	12.9%	2.8%	4.13	4.26	+0.8
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	20	20	118	498	100	41	15	100%	5.9	20.0%	8.2%	11.9%	3.0%	4.32	4.45	+0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	KC	18	18	110	464	90	40	15	100%	6.1	19.3%	8.5%	10.8%	3.2%	4.53	4.67	+0.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	KC	17	17	102	431	80	38	15	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.9%	9.6%	3.4%	4.76	4.92	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		152	151	900	3764	769	299	109	99%	5.9	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.03	3.98	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	836	171	66	24	99%	5.9	20.4%	7.9%	12.5%	2.9%	4.03	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		127	126	633	2630	594	201	87	99%	5.0	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.3%	3.71	3.97	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	831	188	63	27	99%	5.0	22.6%	7.6%	15.0%	3.3%	3.71	3.97	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Cameron (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	21.0%	7.5%	3.3%	—	4.39	20.7%	12.8%	395	-0.06	—	—	—
Héctor Santiago L 2015 · 4.43 FIP	27	SP	4.43	20.9%	8.5%	3.7%	.245	5.13	19.2%	8.1%	378	+0.70	4.32	713	70
Patrick Monteverde L 2023 · 4.49 FIP	25	SP	4.49	19.9%	10.9%	3.1%	.267	5.58	16.3%	8.8%	304	+1.09	3.88	542	70
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	69
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.25 FIP	25	SP	4.25	18.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.45	17.1%	7.9%	185	+0.20	3.57	534	69
Jeff Locke L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP	3.79	17.5%	7.6%	2.2%	.306	4.59	13.7%	6.5%	159	+0.80	3.79	328	69
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	69
Wade Miley L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	28	SP	3.73	17.7%	7.7%	2.1%	.305	4.15	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.42	3.36	1,167	69
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	68
Chris Rusin L 2015 · 4.40 FIP	28	SP	4.40	13.5%	6.2%	3.0%	.331	3.36	20.1%	13.3%	224	-1.04	2.89	488	68
Jose Quintana L 2016 · 3.43 FIP	27	SP	3.43	21.6%	5.9%	2.6%	.291	3.82	22.8%	15.4%	534	+0.39	2.95	1,596	67
Tyler Skaggs L 2018 · 3.42 FIP	27	SP	3.42	24.2%	7.5%	2.6%	.323	3.64	23.3%	14.9%	80	+0.22	3.18	372	67
Miguel Pena L 2017 · 3.97 FIP	26	SP	3.97	16.8%	8.2%	2.3%	.288	5.08	16.0%	9.0%	68	+1.11	2.98	282	67
Matthew Boyd L 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	22.4%	7.2%	4.0%	.252	4.32	26.2%	19.5%	324	+0.02	2.22	1,440	66
Tyler Lyons L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	27	SP-	3.78	22.2%	4.4%	3.6%	.313	3.64	26.0%	18.5%	158	-0.14	2.65	376	66
Brett Anderson L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	27	SP	3.80	15.5%	5.9%	2.3%	.308	3.93	15.0%	9.0%	207	+0.13	3.49	706	66
Matt Moore L 2016 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP	4.15	21.2%	8.5%	3.2%	.282	4.64	18.6%	10.3%	276	+0.49	2.80	861	65
Tommy Milone L 2015 · 3.72 FIP	28	SP	3.72	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	.275	4.43	18.6%	14.1%	322	+0.71	3.51	875	64
Steven Brault L 2019 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	19.8%	10.1%	3.2%	.301	3.81	18.8%	8.2%	70	-0.66	3.12	691	64
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	64
Roenis Elías L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	27	SP	4.09	18.7%	11.2%	2.1%	.297	4.14	18.2%	10.4%	176	+0.05	3.15	564	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	126	20.2%	8.1%	1.25	4.39
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38