Noah Cameron

P Kansas City Royals

Age 28 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	25	25	129	3.08	2.84	27.8%	6.7%	—	K 23.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 3.44
2025	26	MIX2 levels	31	31	171	3.05	3.96	22.1%	8.0%	2.9	K 21.3% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.19
2026	27	MLBKC	31	30	177	4.11	3.82	21.2%	7.6%	3.4
2027PROJ	28	MLBKC	22	22	133	4.13	4.40	20.9%	7.6%	1.6
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBKC	16	16	97	4.25	4.42	20.3%	7.8%	0.9
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBKC	13	13	77	4.47	4.62	19.6%	8.1%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.797First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$1M2030Arb-2$1M2031Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs50

K%43

FB Velo22

Form4.82 ERA (proj 4.13) · K 22.3% (proj 20.9%) · BB 8.3% (proj 7.6%) · last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsMatt Moore (age 28) · Cole Irvin (age 28) · Patrick Corbin (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.13

FIP4.40

K%20.9%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%13.3%

Proj IP133

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 133 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$23M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2292.5

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p4321.2%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.797 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.6	$13M	+$12M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2029	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-3	$1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$19M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	19	66	270	99	16	6	100%	3.5	28.6%	7.7%	20.9%	2.4%	3.56	2.96	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	19	66	270	99	16	6	100%	3.5	36.7%	5.9%	30.7%	2.2%	3.56	2.00	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	107	466	132	35	19	100%	4.5	22.4%	8.4%	14.1%	5.4%	5.28	5.25	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	107	466	132	35	19	100%	4.5	28.3%	7.5%	20.8%	4.1%	5.28	3.92	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	536	149	36	12	100%	5.1	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	2.6%	3.08	3.44	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	129	536	149	36	12	100%	5.1	23.1%	7.0%	16.1%	2.6%	3.08	3.44	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	129	536	149	36	12	100%	5.1	27.8%	6.7%	21.1%	2.2%	3.08	2.84	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	171	689	152	55	22	100%	5.5	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	3.5%	3.05	4.19	+2.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	171	689	152	55	22	100%	5.5	21.3%	7.8%	13.5%	3.5%	3.05	4.19	+2.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	171	689	152	55	22	100%	5.5	22.1%	8.0%	14.1%	3.2%	3.05	3.96	+2.9
2026	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	30	177	746	158	57	21	97%	5.7	21.2%	7.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.11	3.95	+3.1
2026	27	MLB MLE	Kansas City Royals	31	30	177	746	158	57	21	97%	5.7	21.2%	7.6%	13.5%	3.0%	4.11	3.95	+3.1
2026	27	MLB RAW	Kansas City Royals	31	30	177	746	158	57	21	97%	5.7	21.2%	7.6%	13.5%	2.8%	4.11	3.82	+3.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			55	54	316	1302	272	99	39	98%	5.7	20.9%	7.6%	13.3%	3.0%	3.62	3.92	+5.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	KC	22	22	133	562	117	43	18	100%	6.0	20.9%	7.6%	13.3%	3.1%	4.13	4.40	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	KC	17	17	103	433	88	34	14	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	3.3%	4.39	4.56	+1.0
2029	30	MLB MLE	KC	14	14	81	343	67	28	12	100%	5.8	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.61	4.76	+0.6
2030	31	MLB MLE	KC	11	11	64	269	51	23	10	100%	5.8	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	3.7%	4.84	4.99	+0.3
2031	32	MLB MLE	KC	8	8	47	200	36	18	8	100%	5.9	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	4.0%	5.09	5.25	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	KC	16	16	97	410	83	32	12	100%	6.1	20.3%	7.8%	12.5%	3.0%	4.25	4.42	+0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	KC	13	13	77	325	64	26	10	100%	5.9	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	3.2%	4.47	4.62	+0.6
2030	31	MLB CTX	KC	10	10	61	258	49	22	9	100%	6.1	18.9%	8.5%	10.4%	3.4%	4.69	4.84	+0.3
2031	32	MLB CTX	KC	8	8	45	190	34	17	7	100%	5.6	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	3.7%	4.93	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	101	596	2485	502	196	78	99%	5.8	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.1%	4.04	4.11	+9.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	834	168	66	26	99%	5.9	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.1%	4.04	4.11	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		130	129	650	2707	610	208	92	99%	5.0	22.5%	7.7%	14.9%	3.4%	3.77	4.04	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	40	200	833	188	64	28	99%	5.0	22.5%	7.7%	14.9%	3.4%	3.77	4.04	+2.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 33 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.95 (+0.37)K% 28.6% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.860	24.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.77%	—	×0.900	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	3.01%	÷1.003	×1.100	3.30%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 74 IPFIP 2.82 → 3.67 (+0.84)K% 27.0% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.02%	—	×0.810	21.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.100	8.54%
HR / BF /BF	1.86%	÷0.920	×1.200	2.43%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 84).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 3.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 54 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.11 (+0.26)K% 29.0% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.97%	—	×0.860	24.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.14%	—	×0.900	4.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.80%	÷1.111	×1.100	2.78%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 72 IPFIP 4.56 → 5.92 (+1.36)K% 22.8% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.84%	—	×0.810	18.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.02%	—	×1.100	8.83%
HR / BF /BF	4.32%	÷0.872	×1.200	5.95%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 5.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 35 IPFIP 2.39 → 3.71 (+1.32)K% 40.8% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.85%	—	×0.770	31.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.34%	—	×1.150	7.29%
HR / BF /BF	3.52%	÷1.033	×1.250	4.26%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.39 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 31 IPFIP 1.15 → 2.23 (+1.07)K% 41.4% → 31.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.41%	—	×0.770	31.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.47%	—	×1.150	6.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.56%	÷1.047	×1.250	1.87%

Result: FIP 1.15 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AColumbia Fireflies · 29 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.78 (+1.11)K% 33.6% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.62%	—	×0.740	24.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.180	9.16%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷1.140	×1.300	2.95%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 128).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Royals · 6 IPFIP 2.94 → 4.41 (+1.47)K% 26.9% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.92%	—	×0.680	18.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	3.85%	÷1.035	×1.400	5.20%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Noah Cameron (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.74	19.7%	11.6%	248	+0.34	—	—	—
Matt Moore L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	28	SP	4.57	18.7%	8.1%	3.7%	.314	4.76	18.3%	9.8%	102	+0.19	2.80	1,191	68
Cole Irvin L 2022 · 4.24 FIP	28	SP	4.24	17.3%	4.5%	3.7%	.268	4.39	16.5%	11.1%	238	+0.15	3.37	1,183	67
Patrick Corbin L 2017 · 3.80 FIP	28	SP	3.80	21.5%	6.4%	3.1%	.320	2.97	28.3%	21.6%	468	-0.83	2.30	2,144	66
Héctor Santiago L 2016 · 5.12 FIP	28	SP	5.12	18.3%	10.1%	4.2%	.257	5.09	20.1%	8.4%	310	-0.03	4.07	1,059	66
Tyler Anderson L 2018 · 4.20 FIP	28	SP	4.20	22.3%	7.9%	3.6%	.278	4.42	18.5%	11.9%	247	+0.22	3.10	1,288	65
Brian Duensing L 2011 · 4.22 FIP	28	SP	4.22	16.2%	6.9%	2.9%	.327	3.64	16.3%	10.1%	224	-0.58	2.57	799	63
Wandy Rodriguez L 2007 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	20.2%	7.7%	2.8%	.290	3.39	22.2%	15.0%	538	-0.52	3.37	1,572	63
Wei-Yin Chen L 2013 · 3.86 FIP	28	SP	3.86	18.2%	6.5%	2.7%	.302	3.94	18.6%	13.9%	500	+0.08	3.63	1,065	61
Steven Matz L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	28	SP	4.21	22.1%	6.5%	3.9%	.292	4.03	23.9%	17.6%	244	-0.18	3.19	1,226	61
Jorge De La Rosa L 2009 · 3.70 FIP	28	SP	3.70	24.2%	10.0%	2.5%	.300	3.89	21.2%	11.9%	191	+0.19	3.24	1,537	61
Ted Lilly L 2004 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP	4.41	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.257	4.46	19.5%	11.2%	515	+0.05	3.61	1,975	60
Wade Miley L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	28	SP	3.73	17.7%	7.7%	2.1%	.305	4.15	18.7%	9.8%	429	+0.42	3.12	1,805	59
Joe Saunders L 2009 · 4.99 FIP	28	SP	4.99	12.5%	7.7%	3.6%	.282	4.39	13.4%	6.8%	590	-0.60	3.86	1,378	59
Nate Robertson L 2006 · 4.53 FIP	28	SP	4.53	15.6%	7.4%	3.3%	.272	4.47	14.7%	6.8%	396	-0.06	4.13	1,144	59
John Halama L 2000 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	11.8%	7.6%	2.6%	.326	4.62	12.2%	5.9%	320	+0.14	3.01	911	59
Doug Davis L 2004 · 3.47 FIP	28	SP	3.47	18.9%	8.6%	1.6%	.285	4.13	18.9%	8.7%	619	+0.66	3.47	1,713	58
Chris Rusin L 2015 · 4.40 FIP	28	SP	4.40	13.5%	6.2%	3.0%	.331	3.36	20.1%	13.3%	224	-1.04	2.89	596	58
Tom Gorzelanny L 2010 · 3.82 FIP	28	SP-	3.82	19.7%	10.6%	1.9%	.305	3.87	21.7%	13.8%	262	+0.05	2.67	899	57
Eduardo Rodriguez L 2021 · 3.25 FIP	28	SP	3.25	27.4%	7.0%	2.9%	.361	3.79	22.1%	14.2%	309	+0.54	3.25	1,596	57
Tommy Milone L 2015 · 3.72 FIP	28	SP	3.72	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	.275	4.43	18.6%	14.1%	322	+0.71	3.18	1,366	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	106	20.3%	7.9%	1.25	4.12
Scott Bankhead ('86-'95, 10 WAR*)	4.5	100	21.2%*	7.3%*	1.36*	4.16*
Lee Stange ('61-'70, 9 WAR*)	6.1	135	17.8%*	6.6%*	1.36*	4.14*
Manny Sarmiento ('76-'83, 4 WAR*)	2.6	86	18.9%*	8.1%*	1.20*	4.00*
Travis Wood ('17)	5.0	124	18.9%	8.7%	1.09	4.26
Frankie Montas ('25)	3.9	98	23.6%	8.2%	1.20	4.20
Drew Smyly ('24)	5.7	104	23.1%	7.7%	1.49	4.20