Noah Cameron
P
Kansas City Royals
+1.2
WAR
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.2 · 2026
ERA3.85
FIP4.43
xFIP4.48
SIERA4.48
K%21.8%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%13.9%
IP138
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p1191.7
Whiff%
p4324.3%
K%
p2919.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.403
FB (32%)
CU (15%)
CH (20%)
CT-0.8 (23%)
SL-3.5 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 19 | 19 | 66 | 270 | 99 | 16 | 6 | 28.6% | 7.7% | 2.4% | 3.56 | 2.99 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | 24 | 24 | 107 | 466 | 132 | 35 | 19 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 5.28 | 5.14 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 25 | 25 | 129 | 536 | 149 | 36 | 12 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 3.08 | 3.49 | +2.6 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 31 | 31 | 171 | 689 | 152 | 55 | 22 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 3.05 | 4.17 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 3 | 3 | 16 | 67 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 20.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.94 | 3.73 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 113 | 475 | 99 | 36 | 15 | 20.9% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 3.40 | 4.04 | +1.6 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 129 | 542 | 113 | 40 | 17 | 20.9% | 7.4% | 3.1% | 3.46 | 4.00 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 120 | 506 | 105 | 39 | 16 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.18 | 4.45 | +1.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 94 | 36 | 15 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 18 | 18 | 98 | 415 | 82 | 33 | 14 | 19.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 4.52 | 4.61 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | KC | 16 | 16 | 88 | 372 | 71 | 30 | 13 | 19.2% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | KC | 14 | 14 | 79 | 332 | 68 | 24 | 11 | 20.6% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 4.59 | 4.56 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | KC | 13 | 13 | 70 | 295 | 59 | 22 | 10 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 50 | 20 | 9 | 19.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | KC | 54 | — | 54 | 229 | 42 | 18 | 9 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 4.89 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 35 | 16 | 8 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 102 | 489 | 2028 | 468 | 158 | 70 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 4.04 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 42 | 200 | 830 | 192 | 65 | 29 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 3.65 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Cameron (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.52 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 327 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.97 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.04 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.07 | 3.44 | 291 | 73 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.53 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .246 | 5.93 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.40 | 4.53 | 179 | 72 |
| James Gillheeney L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.81 | 14.4% | 8.0% | 1.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 129 | 71 |
| Kramer Sneed L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 13.2% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 116 | 71 |
| Kyle Hald L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 2.4% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 124 | 71 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 112 | 70 |
| Eric Wooten L 2024 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 70 |
| John Gast L 2025 · 3.93 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 122 | 70 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.03 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .288 | 5.12 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.09 | 2.93 | 282 | 70 |
| Justin Marks L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.59 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.91 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.68 | 3.82 | 324 | 69 |
| Nick Additon L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.74 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.5% | .307 | 4.18 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.44 | 3.12 | 217 | 69 |
| John Anderson L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.19 | 14.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 235 | 69 |
| Dietrich Enns L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.25 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .320 | 5.23 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 231 | +0.98 | 2.80 | 702 | 68 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2023 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 68 |
| Tanner Banks L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.09 | 13.4% | 4.5% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.49 | 24.1% | 17.4% | 130 | -0.60 | 2.88 | 1,009 | 68 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2027 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.11 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.14 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +1.03 | 4.11 | 182 | 68 |
| Nick Greenwood L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.23 | 9.3% | 4.4% | 2.5% | .321 | 3.68 | 11.2% | 8.3% | 112 | -0.55 | 3.68 | 241 | 68 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.90 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.6% | .343 | 4.28 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.38 | 3.90 | 185 | 67 |
| Santiago Gutierrez L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.28 | 11.0% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .314 | 3.92 | 14.9% | 6.1% | 169 | -0.36 | 3.91 | 341 | 67 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2023 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.797 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.0 | $8M | +$8M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $36M | +$27M | ||