Noah Cameron
P
Kansas City Royals
Age 27
LHP
6'3" / 220 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 64 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 116
ERA3.69
FIP3.98
K%21.4%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP64
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 159 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2192.4
Whiff%
p4524.6%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p250.341
FB (32%)
SI (4%)
CU (17%)
CH (21%)
CT-0.8 (20%)
SL-3.5 (10%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 66 | 270 | 99 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 3.5 | 28.6% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 2.2% | 3.56 | 2.86 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 19 | 19 | 66 | 270 | 99 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 3.5 | 36.7% | 5.9% | 30.7% | 2.2% | 3.56 | 2.00 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 107 | 466 | 132 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.4% | 8.4% | 14.1% | 6.1% | 5.28 | 5.62 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 107 | 466 | 132 | 35 | 19 | 100% | 4.5 | 28.3% | 7.5% | 20.8% | 4.1% | 5.28 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 536 | 149 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 23.3% | 7.3% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 3.08 | 3.48 | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 129 | 536 | 149 | 36 | 12 | 100% | 5.1 | 27.8% | 6.7% | 21.1% | 2.2% | 3.08 | 2.84 | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 171 | 689 | 152 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 3.05 | 4.20 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 171 | 689 | 152 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 22.1% | 8.0% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 3.05 | 3.96 | +2.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 18 | 18 | 96 | 423 | 91 | 31 | 13 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.89 | 3.90 | +1.6 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 64 | 269 | 58 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 3.2% | 3.69 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | KC | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 58 | 20 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 13.9% | 3.1% | 3.63 | 3.92 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 159 | 692 | 149 | 51 | 22 | — | — | 21.5% | 7.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 3.93 | +2.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | KC | — | — | 159 | 673 | 149 | 51 | 21 | — | — | 22.1% | 7.6% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 3.93 | +2.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 23 | 23 | 138 | 584 | 124 | 45 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.44 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 132 | 558 | 115 | 44 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 124 | 524 | 105 | 43 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.81 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | KC | 22 | 22 | 131 | 553 | 118 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.3% | 7.6% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.23 | 4.38 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | KC | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 109 | 42 | 17 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 4.42 | 4.55 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | KC | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 100 | 41 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.75 | +0.9 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 116 | 673 | 2831 | 590 | 218 | 92 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 842 | 175 | 65 | 27 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.8% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 4.12 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 117 | 568 | 2384 | 545 | 185 | 85 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 3.85 | 4.11 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 839 | 192 | 65 | 30 | 100% | 4.9 | 22.9% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 3.6% | 3.85 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Noah Cameron (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 3.2% | — | 4.61 | 20.7% | 12.8% | 395 | +0.17 | — | — | — |
| Héctor Santiago L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.54 | 20.9% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .245 | 5.12 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 378 | +0.58 | 4.40 | 713 | 70 |
| Alex Wood L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.28 | 21.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% | .285 | 3.74 | 24.6% | 18.1% | 187 | +0.46 | 3.05 | 1,009 | 69 |
| Felix Doubront L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.87 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 2.2% | .304 | 4.45 | 23.7% | 14.7% | 42 | +0.58 | 3.39 | 291 | 69 |
| Jeff Locke L 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.71 | 17.5% | 7.6% | 2.1% | .306 | 4.50 | 13.7% | 6.5% | 159 | +0.79 | 3.71 | 328 | 68 |
| Chris Rusin L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.20 | 13.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .331 | 3.21 | 20.1% | 13.3% | 224 | -0.99 | 2.80 | 488 | 67 |
| Wade Miley L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.69 | 17.7% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .305 | 4.19 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 429 | +0.50 | 3.36 | 1,167 | 67 |
| Ryan Bollinger L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.53 | 17.1% | 7.5% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 112 | 67 |
| Miguel Pena L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.14 | 16.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .288 | 5.94 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 68 | +1.80 | 2.86 | 282 | 67 |
| Matthew Boyd L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.40 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 4.2% | .252 | 4.44 | 26.2% | 19.5% | 324 | +0.04 | 2.22 | 1,376 | 67 |
| Tyler Lyons L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.2% | 4.4% | 3.2% | .313 | 3.57 | 26.0% | 18.5% | 158 | -0.00 | 2.61 | 376 | 66 |
| Connor Prielipp L 2024 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 25.3% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.72 | 184 | 66 |
| Brett Anderson L 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.93 | 15.5% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .308 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 9.0% | 207 | +0.01 | 3.43 | 706 | 65 |
| Tommy Milone L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.72 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .275 | 4.32 | 18.6% | 14.1% | 322 | +0.60 | 3.37 | 875 | 64 |
| Tyler Skaggs L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.50 | 24.2% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .323 | 3.72 | 23.3% | 14.9% | 80 | +0.22 | 3.21 | 372 | 64 |
| Dietrich Enns L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.45 | 16.2% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .320 | 5.30 | 20.2% | 11.9% | 231 | +0.85 | 2.80 | 740 | 63 |
| Jose Quintana L 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.41 | 21.6% | 5.9% | 2.5% | .291 | 3.72 | 22.8% | 15.4% | 534 | +0.31 | 2.90 | 1,596 | 63 |
| Misael Siverio L 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.00 | 16.8% | 10.8% | 1.7% | .343 | 4.52 | 17.3% | 8.2% | 63 | +0.52 | 4.00 | 185 | 63 |
| Tanner Tully L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.74 | 16.2% | 5.1% | 2.5% | .329 | 5.03 | 13.7% | 7.1% | 191 | +1.29 | 3.74 | 834 | 63 |
| Tim Cooney L 2023 · 3.37 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.37 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 120 | 63 |
| Derek Holland L 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.87 | 16.7% | 6.1% | 4.4% | .270 | 4.62 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 414 | -0.25 | 3.76 | 686 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 133 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 1.31 | 4.39 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| CC Sabathia ('19) CYAS×6HOF | 5 | 151 | 20.2% | 7.8% | 1.39 | 4.14 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Mike Foltynewicz ('21) | 6 | 134 | 21.4% | 7.7% | 1.46 | 4.45 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |