Cole Irvin

P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 33 LHP 6'4" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MIX2 levels	33	21	127	4.41	4.21	17.9%	5.5%	1.8	K 17.1% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.32
2024	30	MIX2 levels	31	18	118	5.05	4.54	15.8%	6.5%	1.2	K 15.9% · BB 5.7% · FIP 4.48
2026	32	MIX2 levels	29	28	144	3.57	3.80	14.0%	9.2%	2.8	K 11.9% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.82
2027PROJ	33	MLBLAD	16	16	93	4.67	4.67	12.3%	7.9%	0.8
2028PROJ	34	MLBLAD	11	11	64	4.86	4.98	11.4%	8.4%	0.3
2029PROJ	35	MLBLAD	8	8	51	4.97	5.04	12.4%	8.1%	0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

FB Velo14

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsEnrique Lechuga (age 31) · Paul Oseguera (age 32) · Tomas Solis (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%12.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%4.4%

Proj IP93

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1017.0%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.366

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	24	151	627	118	38	14	96%	6.1	14.9%	6.8%	8.1%	2.3%	3.39	3.94	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	24	151	627	118	38	14	96%	6.1	18.8%	6.1%	12.8%	2.2%	3.39	3.50	—
2018	24	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	26	25	161	639	131	34	11	96%	6.2	18.0%	5.6%	12.5%	2.0%	2.57	3.37	—
2018	24	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	26	25	161	639	131	34	11	96%	6.2	20.5%	5.3%	15.2%	1.7%	2.57	2.99	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	19	135	582	96	25	20	58%	4.1	15.2%	4.4%	10.7%	4.0%	4.52	4.55	+1.3
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	19	135	582	96	25	20	58%	4.1	16.5%	4.3%	12.2%	3.4%	4.52	4.16	+2.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	4	22	4	1	1	0%	1.2	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	4.5%	17.18	4.64	-0.0
2020	26	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	3	0	4	22	4	1	1	0%	1.2	18.2%	4.5%	13.6%	4.5%	17.18	5.28	-0.0
2021	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	32	32	178	768	125	42	23	100%	5.6	16.3%	5.5%	10.8%	3.3%	4.24	4.22	+2.5
2021	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	32	32	178	768	125	42	23	100%	5.6	16.3%	5.5%	10.8%	3.0%	4.24	4.08	+2.8
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	186	761	134	33	26	100%	6.0	17.3%	4.5%	12.8%	3.7%	3.92	4.24	+2.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	186	761	134	33	26	100%	6.0	17.6%	4.3%	13.3%	3.4%	3.92	4.01	+3.1
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	21	127	548	98	30	19	64%	3.8	17.1%	5.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.41	4.32	+1.6
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	21	127	548	98	30	19	64%	3.8	17.9%	5.5%	12.4%	3.5%	4.41	4.21	+1.8
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	118	525	83	34	18	58%	3.8	15.9%	5.7%	10.2%	3.6%	5.05	4.48	+1.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	18	118	525	83	34	18	58%	3.8	15.9%	5.7%	10.2%	3.6%	5.05	4.48	+1.3
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	18	118	525	83	34	18	58%	3.8	15.8%	6.5%	9.3%	3.4%	5.05	4.54	+1.2
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	144	643	90	59	8	97%	5.0	11.9%	8.2%	3.7%	1.3%	3.57	3.82	+2.7
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	144	643	90	59	8	97%	5.0	11.9%	8.2%	3.7%	1.3%	3.57	3.82	+2.7
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	144	643	90	59	8	97%	5.0	14.0%	9.2%	4.8%	1.2%	3.57	3.80	+2.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			135	93	599	2570	439	140	86	69%	4.4	17.1%	5.4%	11.6%	3.3%	4.58	4.20	+8.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	LAD	16	16	93	393	48	31	9	100%	5.8	12.3%	7.9%	4.4%	2.2%	4.67	4.67	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	LAD	11	11	64	269	31	23	7	100%	5.8	11.4%	8.4%	3.0%	2.5%	4.86	4.98	+0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	LAD	9	9	51	217	27	18	6	100%	5.7	12.4%	8.1%	4.3%	2.9%	4.97	5.04	+0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	31	23	7	100%	5.8	11.4%	8.4%	3.0%	2.5%	4.86	4.98	+0.3
2029	35	MLB CTX	LAD	8	8	51	215	27	18	6	100%	6.4	12.4%	8.1%	4.3%	2.9%	4.97	5.04	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		154	112	714	3055	496	180	99	73%	4.6	16.2%	5.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.64	4.25	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	31	200	856	139	50	28	73%	4.6	16.2%	5.9%	10.4%	3.2%	4.64	4.25	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		243	198	1204	5115	811	293	151	81%	5.0	15.9%	5.7%	10.1%	3.0%	3.95	4.11	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	33	200	850	135	49	25	81%	5.0	15.9%	5.7%	10.1%	3.0%	3.95	4.11	+2.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 138 IPFIP 3.71 → 3.82 (+0.11)K% 13.9% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.87%	—	×0.860	11.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.14%	—	×0.900	8.22%
HR / BF /BF	1.14%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.71 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANorfolk Tides · 7 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.07 (−0.05)K% 15.2% → 13.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.15%	—	×0.860	13.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.18%	—	×0.900	16.36%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.996	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAANorfolk Tides · 49 IPFIP 4.51 → 4.85 (+0.33)K% 14.2% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.15%	—	×0.860	12.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.25%	—	×0.900	3.82%
HR / BF /BF	3.77%	÷0.995	×1.100	4.17%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AStockton Ports · 5 IPFIP 3.31 → 4.78 (+1.47)K% 30.0% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.00%	—	×0.740	22.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	5.00%	÷1.003	×1.300	6.48%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 101).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 4.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 94 IPFIP 3.92 → 4.59 (+0.67)K% 16.2% → 14.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.21%	—	×0.880	14.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.24%	—	×1.050	3.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.24%	÷0.866	×1.100	4.12%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.92 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 161 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.37 (+0.39)K% 20.5% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.50%	—	×0.880	18.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.050	5.59%
HR / BF /BF	1.72%	÷0.954	×1.100	1.98%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 84 IPFIP 4.26 → 4.62 (+0.36)K% 18.9% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.91%	—	×0.810	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×1.100	7.56%
HR / BF /BF	3.44%	÷1.220	×1.200	3.38%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 144).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 4.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Clearwater Threshers · 67 IPFIP 2.55 → 3.08 (+0.53)K% 18.7% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.71%	—	×0.770	14.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.04%	—	×1.150	5.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.72%	÷1.058	×1.250	0.85%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 2.55 → 3.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Irvin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.2%	—	5.01	11.8%	3.6%	115	+0.34	—	—	—
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	66
Paul Oseguera L 2016 · 5.62 FIP	32	SP	5.62	5.6%	12.5%	2.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	162	63
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	60
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	60
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	58
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	57
Pat Misch L 2015 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP-	3.94	11.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	56
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	55
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	55
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	55
Yohan Flande L 2019 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	10.0%	11.9%	0.8%	.386	—	—	—	—	—	3.18	394	53
Daniel Rodriguez L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	32	SP	3.87	13.1%	9.7%	1.2%	.335	4.77	20.8%	13.0%	112	+0.90	2.89	391	52
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	52
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	51
Matt Dermody L 2023 · 3.87 FIP	33	SP	3.87	20.7%	4.6%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	348	47
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	47
Travis Blackley L 2016 · 3.85 FIP	33	SP	3.85	11.6%	10.7%	0.7%	.301	6.88	6.1%	-3.6%	27	+3.03	3.85	409	39
Carlos Teller L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP-	4.90	13.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	333	37
Diego Moreno R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	32	SP	4.08	12.4%	6.9%	2.1%	.376	4.75	18.6%	9.2%	30	+0.67	2.29	187	36
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	35

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.0	101	15.8%	6.3%	1.21	4.64
Joe Moeller ('62-'71, -1 WAR*)	2.9	97	16.0%*	7.3%*	1.16*	4.98*
Tom Hausman ('75-'82, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	14.3%*	6.5%*	1.22*	4.45*
Dennis Ribant ('64-'69, 1 WAR*)	2.6	104	14.1%*	6.5%*	1.39*	4.76*
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Brett Oberholtzer ('16)	1.6	81	15.6%	6.2%	1.14	4.36
Luke Hochevar ('16)	4.6	116	17.7%	7.5%	1.12	4.98