Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 42.9% | 7.1% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.39 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 42.9% | 7.1% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.02 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 15 | 86 | 376 | 119 | 27 | 7 | 79% | 4.5 | 23.4% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 2.4% | 5.34 | 3.52 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 19 | 15 | 86 | 376 | 119 | 27 | 7 | 79% | 4.5 | 31.6% | 7.2% | 24.5% | 1.9% | 5.34 | 2.33 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 3 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 3.2 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 4.54 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 3 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 0% | 3.2 | 25.0% | 18.2% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 4.66 | 4.65 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 7 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | — | — | — | — | 1.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 59 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 4.26 | 4.26 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 68 | 282 | 67 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 23.9% | 9.2% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 60 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 60 | 0 | 62 | 264 | 64 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 63 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 8.7% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.16 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.4% | 8.6% | 15.8% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.15 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 162 | 0 | 170 | 717 | 174 | 62 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.75 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 205 | 73 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 8.6% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 3.75 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 34 | 15 | 107 | 462 | 113 | 44 | 11 | 44% | 3.2 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 4.78 | 3.55 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 28 | 200 | 861 | 211 | 82 | 21 | 44% | 3.2 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 2.4% | 4.78 | 3.55 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Isaiah Coupet (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.26 | 23.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.13 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 187 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 82 |
| James Reeves L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.50 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .237 | 3.30 | 23.0% | 13.1% | 146 | -0.20 | 2.02 | 280 | 81 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 81 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 80 |
| Josh Simpson L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 80 |
| Jeffrey Springs L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.13 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .265 | 3.59 | 25.7% | 16.0% | 233 | -0.54 | 1.39 | 861 | 79 |
| Jordan Woods L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 79 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.19 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 4.51 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.32 | 4.19 | 201 | 78 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.28 | 24.9% | 12.5% | 3.1% | .206 | 4.45 | 20.1% | 6.0% | 100 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 193 | 78 |
| Jacques Pucheu L 2025 · 3.06 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.06 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 0.9% | .292 | 4.57 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 99 | +1.51 | 3.06 | 134 | 77 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 77 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 77 |
| Will Johnston L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .290 | 4.34 | 22.8% | 8.6% | 82 | +0.13 | 4.04 | 174 | 76 |
| Tyler Holton L 2028 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.18 | 22.0% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .393 | 3.47 | 22.0% | 16.1% | 224 | +0.29 | 3.02 | 409 | 76 |
| Jake Drehoff L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.98 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | .326 | 4.74 | 17.8% | 6.8% | 81 | +0.76 | 3.98 | 153 | 76 |
| Nick Maronde L 2028 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 76 |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.1% | .271 | 5.25 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 39 | +1.48 | 3.77 | 132 | 76 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2028 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 76 |
| Jordan Fowler L 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.98 | 17.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .276 | 4.30 | 13.2% | 5.3% | 70 | -0.68 | 4.30 | 124 | 76 |
| Brady Basso L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 62 | 24.1% | 8.7% | 1.13 | 4.18 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Juan Nicasio ('19) | 5 | 68 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 0.83 | 4.21 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |