Isaiah Coupet — OGILVIE

Isaiah Coupet P Spokane Indians

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%23.4%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	4	14	6	1	0	0%	0.9	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.39	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	0	4	14	6	1	0	0%	0.9	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	0.39	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	0	4	14	6	1	0	0%	0.9	42.9%	7.1%	35.7%	0.0%	0.00	1.02	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	15	86	376	119	27	7	79%	4.5	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	2.4%	5.34	3.52	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	19	15	86	376	119	27	7	79%	4.5	23.4%	8.5%	14.9%	2.4%	5.34	3.52	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	19	15	86	376	119	27	7	79%	4.5	31.6%	7.2%	24.5%	1.9%	5.34	2.33	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	3	0	10	44	11	8	1	0%	3.2	25.0%	18.2%	6.8%	2.3%	4.66	4.54	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	3	0	10	44	11	8	1	0%	3.2	25.0%	18.2%	6.8%	2.3%	4.66	4.54	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	3	0	10	44	11	8	1	0%	3.2	25.0%	18.2%	6.8%	2.3%	4.66	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	16	1	23	102	18	14	3	6%	1.5	10.4%	17.1%	-6.7%	3.4%	5.40	6.24	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	16	1	23	102	18	14	3	6%	1.5	10.4%	17.1%	-6.7%	3.4%	5.40	6.24	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	COL	7	0	7	28	8	3	1	0%	1.0	28.6%	10.7%	17.9%	3.6%	1.23	4.00	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	COL	9	1	16	74	10	11	2	11%	1.8	13.5%	14.9%	-1.4%	2.7%	7.31	5.33	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	5	0	5	23	5	2	1	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.6%	14.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	29	125	23	16	4	—	—	18.7%	12.8%	5.9%	2.9%	5.17	5.86	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	76	0	79	335	80	28	10	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.4%	15.5%	2.9%	4.16	4.13	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	76	0	80	339	82	28	10	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	2.9%	4.12	4.08	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	76	0	80	339	83	28	10	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	2.9%	4.10	4.07	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	75	0	79	334	88	25	10	0%	1.1	26.3%	7.5%	18.8%	3.0%	3.95	3.84	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	73	0	77	324	85	25	10	0%	1.1	26.2%	7.7%	18.5%	3.1%	3.94	3.93	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	70	0	73	309	80	25	10	0%	1.0	25.9%	7.9%	18.0%	3.2%	4.01	4.06	+0.4
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	290	74	24	10	0%	1.0	25.6%	8.2%	17.4%	3.4%	4.15	4.24	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	32	0	34	144	34	12	5	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.4%	15.5%	3.4%	4.40	4.37	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	50	0	53	224	54	19	8	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.4%	15.9%	3.4%	4.36	4.32	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	61	0	64	270	66	22	9	0%	1.0	24.4%	8.3%	16.1%	3.4%	4.34	4.31	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	64	0	67	283	74	21	10	0%	1.0	26.3%	7.5%	18.8%	3.4%	4.20	4.09	+0.6
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	65	0	68	287	75	22	10	0%	1.0	26.2%	7.7%	18.5%	3.5%	4.20	4.19	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	64	0	67	283	73	22	10	0%	1.0	25.9%	7.9%	18.0%	3.7%	4.28	4.33	+0.4
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	60	0	63	266	68	22	10	0%	1.1	25.6%	8.2%	17.4%	3.9%	4.44	4.53	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		397	0	417	1760	447	141	62	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.5%	4.31	3.92	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	68	30	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.0%	17.4%	3.5%	4.31	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		43	16	123	536	116	58	14	37%	2.9	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	2.5%	5.11	4.04	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	26	200	869	188	95	22	37%	2.9	21.6%	10.9%	10.7%	2.5%	5.11	4.04	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Isaiah Coupet (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	23.4%	8.6%	2.9%	—	4.09	24.2%	15.9%	240	-0.12	—	—	—
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	82
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	79
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	79
Jeffrey Springs L 2016 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	21.0%	10.1%	3.2%	.265	3.59	25.7%	16.0%	233	-0.78	1.36	898	79
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	78
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	78
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	78
Austin Drury L 2021 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	19.1%	8.7%	4.0%	.275	5.22	12.9%	-6.9%	37	+0.46	2.54	187	77
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	77
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	77
Alex Cornwell L 2022 · 3.76 FIP	23	SW	3.76	18.9%	7.3%	2.4%	.382	3.81	16.2%	8.2%	311	+0.05	3.16	381	77
Christian Jones L 2015 · 3.32 FIP	24	SU	3.32	18.5%	7.4%	1.6%	.319	4.00	15.0%	3.7%	89	+0.68	3.32	161	77
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	76
Adrian Gusman L 2015 · 3.41 FIP	23	SW	3.41	16.5%	6.6%	1.6%	.280	3.68	15.0%	7.2%	63	+0.27	2.94	141	76
Tyler Holton L 2021 · 3.35 FIP	25	SW	3.35	22.0%	6.6%	2.3%	.393	3.41	22.0%	16.1%	224	+0.06	2.97	436	76
James Reeves L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	23	SW	3.32	21.9%	8.7%	1.8%	.237	3.30	23.0%	13.1%	146	-0.02	2.02	280	76
Jake Drehoff L 2015 · 3.95 FIP	23	SW	3.95	16.0%	5.9%	2.6%	.326	4.83	17.8%	6.8%	81	+0.88	3.95	153	76
Jacques Pucheu L 2019 · 3.06 FIP	22	SW	3.06	19.2%	8.4%	0.9%	.292	4.49	20.6%	8.4%	99	+1.43	3.06	134	76
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	132	75
Holden Capps L 2018 · 3.31 FIP	23	SW	3.31	18.9%	4.4%	2.3%	.339	3.37	17.1%	10.0%	73	+0.06	2.99	215	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	75	25.0%	8.1%	1.18	4.08
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81