Max Roberts
P
Birmingham Barons
+0.1
WAR
Age 29
LHP
6'6" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.4%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%12.1%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 20 | ROK | AZL Mariners | 10 | 7 | 24 | 114 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 10.7% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 5.18 | 4.79 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 24 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 18 | 5 | 34 | 157 | 39 | 21 | 3 | 19.3% | 15.2% | 2.7% | 3.97 | 4.88 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 38 | 0 | 48 | 218 | 68 | 27 | 5 | 24.9% | 14.4% | 2.6% | 5.29 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 26 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 27 | 0 | 27 | 126 | 43 | 17 | 4 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | 5.67 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 27 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 38 | 0 | 48 | 215 | 63 | 35 | 4 | 23.0% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.98 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 15 | 0 | 16 | 70 | 24 | 7 | 3 | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | CWS | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 34 | 17 | 4 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | CWS | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 33 | 16 | 4 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 32 | — | 32 | 137 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 22.9% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 31 | — | 31 | 131 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 22.7% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 3.3% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 146 | 12 | 197 | 900 | 203 | 132 | 26 | 22.6% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.61 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 12 | 200 | 914 | 206 | 134 | 26 | 22.6% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.80 | 4.61 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Max Roberts (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 23.4% | 11.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.68 | 22.9% | 11.7% | 97 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Edward Paredes L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.47 | 24.1% | 13.0% | 1.4% | .225 | 3.55 | 23.7% | 14.0% | 86 | +0.08 | 2.37 | 130 | 83 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.44 | 24.9% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .330 | 4.07 | 26.2% | 17.3% | 23 | -0.37 | 2.50 | 190 | 82 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.62 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .318 | 6.63 | 14.2% | 3.4% | 14 | +3.01 | 2.70 | 230 | 80 |
| Mike Dunn L 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 80 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 80 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 80 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 79 |
| Josh Edgin L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.63 | 22.1% | 13.2% | 1.3% | .359 | 3.83 | 23.2% | 13.6% | 80 | +0.20 | 3.62 | 113 | 79 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.43 | 18.9% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .300 | 3.46 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 112 | -0.97 | 2.83 | 223 | 78 |
| Tommy Layne L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 78 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 78 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 176 | 78 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2025 · 3.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.61 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.36 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.25 | 3.36 | 153 | 77 |
| Jose Meraz L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 77 |
| Brandon Mann L 2029 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 76 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 76 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Dan Runzler L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 19.0% | 13.1% | 1.1% | .383 | 4.03 | 16.5% | 4.0% | 63 | +0.25 | 3.78 | 127 | 75 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.74 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.72 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 161 | -0.02 | 2.70 | 655 | 75 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.