Max Roberts — OGILVIE

Max Roberts P Birmingham Barons

Age 29 LHP 6'6" / 190 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%23.3%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	20	ROK MLE	AZL Mariners	10	7	24	114	18	9	2	70%	2.4	10.7%	9.9%	0.9%	2.5%	5.18	4.79	—
2017	20	ROK RAW	AZL Mariners	10	7	24	114	18	9	2	70%	2.4	15.8%	7.9%	7.9%	1.8%	5.18	3.80	—
2021	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	5	34	157	39	21	3	28%	1.9	19.3%	15.2%	4.1%	2.6%	3.97	4.85	—
2021	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	5	34	157	39	21	3	28%	1.9	24.8%	13.4%	11.5%	1.9%	3.97	3.81	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	48	218	68	27	5	0%	1.3	24.9%	14.4%	10.5%	2.6%	5.29	4.27	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	48	218	68	27	5	0%	1.3	31.2%	12.4%	18.8%	2.3%	5.29	3.31	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	27	0	27	126	43	17	4	0%	1.0	26.3%	15.5%	10.8%	3.3%	5.67	4.63	—
2023	26	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	27	0	27	126	43	17	4	0%	1.0	26.3%	15.5%	10.8%	3.3%	5.67	4.63	—
2023	26	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	27	0	27	126	43	17	4	0%	1.0	34.1%	13.5%	20.6%	3.2%	5.67	3.73	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	48	215	63	35	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	18.0%	4.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.94	—
2024	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	0	48	215	63	35	4	0%	1.3	23.0%	18.0%	4.9%	2.7%	4.12	4.94	—
2024	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	0	48	215	63	35	4	0%	1.3	29.3%	16.3%	13.0%	1.9%	4.12	3.75	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	16	70	24	7	3	0%	1.1	34.3%	10.0%	24.3%	4.3%	5.06	3.82	—
2025	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	0	16	70	24	7	3	0%	1.1	34.3%	10.0%	24.3%	4.3%	5.06	3.82	—
2025	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	0	16	70	24	7	3	0%	1.1	34.3%	10.0%	24.3%	4.3%	5.06	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	29	MLB	CWS	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	15.3%	8.0%	3.0%	5.09	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	CWS	22	0	23	96	22	14	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.12	5.19	-0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	CWS	7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.12	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	30	7	4	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.12	4.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	197	113	28	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.12	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		146	12	197	900	203	132	26	8%	1.3	22.6%	14.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	12	200	914	206	134	26	8%	1.3	22.6%	14.6%	7.9%	2.8%	4.80	4.61	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Roberts (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	23.3%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.19	23.0%	8.0%	23	+0.10	—	—	—
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	78
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	78
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	75
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	72
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	72
Robby Scott L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	29	SU	5.59	23.9%	15.9%	4.5%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.39	285	71
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	70
Sam Moll L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	29	SU	4.62	26.5%	13.5%	3.8%	.310	2.95	25.1%	16.8%	143	-1.67	2.38	507	70
Jack Leathersich L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	28	SU	4.55	21.7%	19.8%	1.4%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	101	69
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	69
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	68
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	68
Buddy Boshers L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	29	SU	4.56	18.9%	8.0%	3.7%	.300	3.47	24.1%	15.6%	112	-1.09	2.80	223	67
Travis Bergen L 2022 · 4.93 FIP	28	SU	4.93	19.3%	20.5%	1.6%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	143	66
Luke Westphal L 2016 · 4.69 FIP	27	SU	4.69	21.2%	19.7%	1.6%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.97	294	66
Ross Detwiler L 2015 · 5.50 FIP	29	SW	5.50	14.2%	12.2%	3.8%	.356	4.80	14.1%	5.9%	242	-0.70	3.49	512	66
Chasen Shreve L 2019 · 3.95 FIP	29	SU	3.95	24.4%	11.1%	2.7%	.269	4.59	23.9%	13.0%	108	+0.64	3.89	470	65
Wandy Peralta L 2020 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	21.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.253	3.70	21.1%	11.3%	161	-0.33	2.69	725	64
Brandon Hughes L 2023 · 5.45 FIP	27	SU	5.45	20.1%	12.4%	4.5%	.360	4.85	20.8%	12.0%	93	-0.60	3.68	206	64
Kyle Bird L 2022 · 5.04 FIP	29	SU	5.04	18.4%	15.4%	2.8%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	379	63