Matt Minnick
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP15
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 9 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 11% | 1.9 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.18 | 5.59 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 9 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 11% | 1.9 | 25.4% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 2.8% | 3.18 | 3.92 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 30 | 0 | 45 | 203 | 66 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 4.40 | 5.82 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 30 | 0 | 45 | 203 | 66 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.5 | 32.5% | 12.3% | 20.2% | 4.4% | 4.40 | 4.43 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 61 | 229 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 1.92 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 61 | 229 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.7 | 27.5% | 8.3% | 19.2% | 2.6% | 1.92 | 3.25 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 28 | 116 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.86 | 5.73 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 28 | 116 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 2.86 | 4.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 14 | 0 | 15 | 62 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 14.0% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.18 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 192 | 96 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.18 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 96 | 1 | 151 | 619 | 136 | 71 | 26 | 1% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 2.97 | 5.02 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 1 | 200 | 818 | 180 | 94 | 35 | 1% | 1.6 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 2.97 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Minnick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.56 | 22.8% | 13.2% | 20 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 80 |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 2.91 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.82 | 2.35 | 306 | 79 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .268 | 8.16 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.87 | 3.04 | 145 | 77 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.73 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.3% | .342 | 2.95 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.78 | 2.95 | 101 | 77 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.09 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.33 | 3.72 | 181 | 77 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 76 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.16 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 190 | 76 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 75 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.45 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.17 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.28 | 3.17 | 163 | 75 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.29 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .269 | 3.00 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.29 | 1.67 | 421 | 74 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .241 | 3.03 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.22 | 2.33 | 455 | 74 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 73 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 73 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 73 |
| Kyle Regnault L 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.81 | 27.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | .367 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 204 | 72 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.44 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.2% | .290 | 3.67 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.23 | 3.44 | 152 | 72 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 72 |
| Kevin Siegrist L 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.00 | 25.0% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 176 | 72 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 24.0% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .364 | 2.51 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 82 | -0.69 | 2.07 | 363 | 72 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.58 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.4% | .284 | 3.34 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.24 | 1.32 | 182 | 71 |