Matt Minnick
P
Binghamton Rumble Ponies
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.2%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%14.0%
IP21
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 23 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | 9 | 1 | 17 | 71 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | 3.18 | 5.59 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 30 | 0 | 45 | 203 | 66 | 25 | 9 | 25.0% | 14.2% | 5.5% | 4.40 | 5.82 | -0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 36 | 0 | 61 | 229 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 1.92 | 3.81 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 21 | 0 | 28 | 116 | 25 | 12 | 4 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 2.86 | 5.50 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | NYM | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 21 | 8 | 3 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYM | 20 | — | 20 | 87 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 23.0% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 96 | 1 | 151 | 619 | 136 | 71 | 26 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 2.97 | 4.99 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 1 | 200 | 818 | 180 | 94 | 34 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 2.97 | 4.99 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Minnick (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 23.0% | 13.6% | 20 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Abad L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.73 | 20.7% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .271 | 3.03 | 21.8% | 17.1% | 88 | -0.70 | 2.38 | 306 | 83 |
| Phil Coke L 2029 · 3.85 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.85 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.1% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.81 | 3.04 | 101 | 81 |
| Jeff Ibarra L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.66 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 2.2% | .342 | 2.89 | 20.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -0.77 | 2.89 | 101 | 80 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 78 |
| Mike Dunn L 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.77 | 27.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .294 | 4.21 | 22.5% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.44 | 3.70 | 181 | 77 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.07 | 26.2% | 8.9% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 190 | 77 |
| Arturo Barradas L 2025 · 3.42 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.42 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .288 | 3.24 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 34 | -0.18 | 3.24 | 163 | 77 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 76 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 76 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.23 | 22.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .314 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 14.9% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.83 | 223 | 75 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 75 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 75 |
| Jake Diekman L 2025 · 3.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.23 | 26.7% | 11.3% | 1.7% | .241 | 3.08 | 28.6% | 15.8% | 115 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 75 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 75 |
| Tommy Layne L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.64 | 21.7% | 12.1% | 1.6% | .284 | 3.27 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 97 | -0.37 | 1.32 | 182 | 75 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 74 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 74 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 74 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.39 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .269 | 2.98 | 25.5% | 18.5% | 99 | -0.41 | 1.81 | 421 | 73 |
| Colt Hynes L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.42 | 16.2% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .290 | 3.68 | 17.9% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.26 | 3.42 | 152 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.