Matt Minnick — OGILVIE

Matt Minnick P Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 30 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101109vR 118

ERA4.44

FIP4.44

K%22.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	23	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees East	9	1	17	71	18	8	2	11%	1.9	17.2%	14.1%	3.2%	3.9%	3.18	5.59	—
2019	23	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees East	9	1	17	71	18	8	2	11%	1.9	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	2.8%	3.18	3.92	—
2021	25	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	30	0	45	203	66	25	9	0%	1.5	25.0%	14.2%	10.9%	5.5%	4.40	5.82	—
2021	25	A+ RAW	Hudson Valley Renegades	30	0	45	203	66	25	9	0%	1.5	32.5%	12.3%	20.2%	4.4%	4.40	4.43	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	0	61	229	63	19	6	0%	1.7	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	2.6%	1.92	3.81	—
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	0	61	229	63	19	6	0%	1.7	27.5%	8.3%	19.2%	2.6%	1.92	3.25	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	28	116	25	12	4	0%	1.3	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	5.0%	2.86	5.49	—
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	28	116	25	12	4	0%	1.3	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	5.0%	2.86	5.49	—
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	28	116	25	12	4	0%	1.3	21.6%	10.3%	11.2%	3.4%	2.86	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	NYM	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.3%	9.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	19	8	3	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.7%	12.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.63	-0.0
2027	31	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	22.0%	9.7%	12.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.25	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	96	32	0%	1.1	22.0%	9.7%	12.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		96	1	151	619	136	71	26	1%	1.6	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	4.2%	2.97	4.99	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		127	1	200	818	180	94	34	1%	1.6	22.0%	11.5%	10.5%	4.2%	2.97	4.99	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Minnick (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.44	22.3%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.63	22.0%	12.4%	20	+0.19	—	—	—
Phil Coke L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	33	SU	3.89	18.8%	9.1%	2.2%	.373	3.04	18.0%	11.3%	70	-0.85	3.04	101	81
Fernando Abad L 2016 · 3.77 FIP	30	SU	3.77	20.7%	10.1%	2.1%	.271	2.95	21.8%	17.1%	88	-0.82	2.37	306	80
Jeff Ibarra L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	29	SU	3.64	18.1%	7.0%	2.1%	.342	2.85	20.6%	17.2%	29	-0.79	2.85	101	78
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	76
Arturo Barradas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SU	3.42	18.1%	7.0%	1.8%	.288	3.24	16.1%	9.5%	34	-0.18	3.24	163	76
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	75
Mike Dunn L 2015 · 3.75 FIP	30	SU	3.75	27.7%	11.9%	2.7%	.294	4.21	22.5%	10.9%	110	+0.46	3.71	181	75
Colt Hynes L 2015 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	16.2%	8.4%	1.1%	.290	3.66	17.9%	13.2%	105	+0.24	3.42	152	74
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	74
Brian Moran L 2019 · 3.40 FIP	30	SU	3.40	26.9%	10.0%	2.4%	.269	2.99	25.5%	18.5%	99	-0.41	1.80	421	74
Sammy Solís L 2019 · 4.05 FIP	30	SU	4.05	26.2%	8.9%	3.7%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	190	72
Tommy Layne L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	30	SU	3.61	21.7%	12.1%	1.5%	.284	3.34	20.2%	11.0%	97	-0.27	1.32	182	72
Josh Edgin L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SU	4.02	16.3%	10.2%	1.8%	.303	3.63	29.2%	20.0%	43	-0.39	3.63	113	72
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	71
Dan Runzler L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	30	SU	3.78	19.0%	13.1%	1.2%	.383	4.07	16.5%	4.0%	63	+0.29	3.78	127	71
Kyle Regnault L 2018 · 3.82 FIP	29	SU	3.82	27.6%	9.7%	3.3%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	204	71
Jason Gurka L 2018 · 3.36 FIP	30	SU	3.36	20.7%	6.2%	2.2%	.357	5.13	15.5%	7.9%	25	+1.77	2.82	183	71
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	71
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	70
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	70