Harry Gustin
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 24
LHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 57 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%22.6%
BB%10.5%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP57
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.6% | 23.5% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 10.12 | 4.59 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 17.6% | 23.5% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 10.12 | 5.35 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 51 | 228 | 62 | 21 | 4 | 7% | 1.8 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.97 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 51 | 228 | 62 | 21 | 4 | 7% | 1.8 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 18.0% | 1.8% | 3.71 | 2.92 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 62 | 250 | 70 | 26 | 3 | 7% | 2.1 | 23.0% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 2.1% | 1.88 | 3.77 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 2 | 62 | 250 | 70 | 26 | 3 | 7% | 2.1 | 28.0% | 10.4% | 17.6% | 1.2% | 1.88 | 2.73 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 27 | 0 | 39 | 172 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 4.9% | 5.49 | 5.25 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 54 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 96 | 413 | 100 | 41 | 14 | — | — | 24.3% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 3.4% | 4.89 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.6% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 57 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 56 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SD | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 104 | 0 | 109 | 462 | 107 | 45 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 3.95 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 196 | 82 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 88 | 4 | 155 | 667 | 145 | 75 | 19 | 5% | 1.8 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 3.53 | 4.24 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 5 | 200 | 859 | 187 | 97 | 24 | 5% | 1.8 | 21.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 3.53 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Harry Gustin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.33 | 23.2% | 13.4% | 172 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Michael Johnson L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 91 |
| R.C. Orlan L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.01 | 21.0% | 10.9% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.55 | 17.2% | 5.0% | 119 | +0.54 | 1.71 | 206 | 90 |
| Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.54 | 20.8% | 11.5% | 3.2% | .268 | 3.58 | 22.5% | 15.3% | 123 | -0.96 | 1.84 | 238 | 90 |
| Sean Mellen L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 89 |
| Garrett Irvin L 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.5% | .283 | 4.48 | 17.7% | 2.9% | 39 | -0.05 | 4.48 | 110 | 89 |
| Kade Bragg L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 88 |
| Graeme Stinson L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 1.9% | .275 | 4.75 | 19.5% | 3.9% | 45 | +1.21 | 3.54 | 146 | 88 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 88 |
| Colton Johnson L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 87 |
| Michael Theofanopoulos L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 201 | 87 |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | .281 | 3.81 | 20.9% | 6.8% | 52 | -0.29 | 3.12 | 161 | 86 |
| Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 86 |
| Chris Cotton L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 85 |
| Shane McCain L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .261 | 4.93 | 14.2% | 10.7% | 51 | +0.70 | 4.19 | 201 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 85 |
| Jared Tobey L 2025 · 4.11 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.11 | 21.0% | 12.1% | 2.3% | .320 | 5.97 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 73 | +1.86 | 4.11 | 158 | 84 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 84 |
| Diego Barrera L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .310 | 4.40 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 70 | +0.74 | 3.62 | 137 | 83 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.70 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .335 | 4.27 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 80 | +0.57 | 3.54 | 206 | 83 |
| Cy Nielson L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.57 | 20.9% | 12.7% | 2.9% | .361 | 4.55 | 19.2% | 6.2% | 40 | -0.02 | 3.01 | 201 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 1.11 | 4.38 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |