Harry Gustin

P San Antonio Missions

Age 25 LHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	29	2	51	3.71	2.92	27.2%	9.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 11.0% · FIP 3.91
2025	23	MIX2 levels	29	2	62	1.88	2.73	28.0%	10.4%	—	K 23.0% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.70
2026	24	AASD	43	0	60	5.28	3.90	28.1%	8.4%	—	K 22.8% · BB 9.2% · FIP 4.85
2027PROJ	25	MLBSD	1	0	1	4.59	4.59	22.8%	9.7%	-0.0
2028PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBSD	24	0	25	4.55	4.54	23.1%	9.6%	0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBSD	31	0	33	4.55	4.56	23.1%	9.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command55

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAaron Fultz (age 26) · Will Gilbert (age 25) · Colton Johnson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%22.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	3	17	3	4	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	10.12	4.59	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	3	17	3	4	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	10.12	5.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	51	228	62	21	4	7%	1.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.1%	3.71	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	51	228	62	21	4	7%	1.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.1%	3.71	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	51	228	62	21	4	7%	1.8	27.2%	9.2%	18.0%	1.8%	3.71	2.92	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	62	250	70	26	3	7%	2.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.5%	2.0%	1.88	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	62	250	70	26	3	7%	2.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.5%	2.0%	1.88	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	62	250	70	26	3	7%	2.1	28.0%	10.4%	17.6%	1.2%	1.88	2.73	—
2026	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	43	0	60	263	74	22	10	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	4.6%	5.28	4.85	—
2026	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	43	0	60	263	74	22	10	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	4.6%	5.28	4.85	—
2026	24	AA RAW	San Antonio Missions	43	0	60	263	74	22	10	0%	1.4	28.1%	8.4%	19.8%	3.8%	5.28	3.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	SD	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.7%	13.1%	3.3%	4.59	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	55	0	58	244	56	23	8	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.55	4.54	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	52	219	50	21	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	SD	46	0	48	203	47	20	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.8%	13.2%	3.4%	4.59	4.63	-0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	SD	42	0	44	186	42	19	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	10.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.69	4.76	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	24	0	25	106	24	10	3	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.6%	13.5%	3.3%	4.55	4.54	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	31	0	33	139	32	13	5	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.6%	13.4%	3.3%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	SD	34	0	36	152	35	15	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.8%	13.2%	3.4%	4.59	4.63	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	SD	34	0	36	152	35	15	5	0%	1.1	22.7%	10.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.69	4.76	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	0	130	550	126	54	19	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.4%	4.60	4.25	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	83	29	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.4%	4.60	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		104	4	176	758	168	82	22	4%	1.7	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.9%	3.69	4.18	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	5	200	863	191	93	25	4%	1.7	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.9%	3.69	4.18	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AASan Antonio Missions · 60 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.85 (+0.97)K% 28.1% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.14%	—	×0.810	22.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.37%	—	×1.100	9.20%
HR / BF /BF	3.80%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.56%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 50 IPFIP 2.66 → 3.70 (+1.04)K% 29.9% → 23.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.85%	—	×0.770	22.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.95%	—	×1.150	11.44%
HR / BF /BF	1.49%	÷0.941	×1.250	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 2.66 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AASan Antonio Missions · 13 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.41 (+0.48)K% 20.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.41%	—	×0.810	16.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.24%	—	×1.100	13.47%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.950	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALake Elsinore Storm · 43 IPFIP 2.77 → 3.91 (+1.14)K% 28.0% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.98%	—	×0.740	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.33%	—	×1.180	11.01%
HR / BF /BF	1.55%	÷0.953	×1.300	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 2.77 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 8 IPFIP 3.82 → 5.00 (+1.18)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.770	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.57%	—	×1.150	9.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷0.916	×1.250	3.90%

Result: FIP 3.82 → 5.00, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Harry Gustin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	22.8%	9.7%	3.3%	—	4.57	23.0%	13.4%	158	-0.02	—	—	—
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	89
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	86
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	86
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	85
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	84
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	84
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	83
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	83
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	82
Kit Scheetz L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	22.9%	8.7%	3.9%	.340	5.08	16.2%	2.6%	55	+0.66	2.34	195	82
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	25	SU	3.91	21.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.56	22.4%	11.6%	110	+0.65	3.90	265	82
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	82
Williams Jerez L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	25	SU	4.05	17.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.294	3.81	24.0%	15.1%	127	-0.24	3.58	364	82
John Grabow L 2004 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	22.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.378	3.93	19.9%	11.0%	173	+0.25	3.66	471	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	81
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	81
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	81
Diego Barrera L 2024 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	17.9%	9.2%	1.7%	.310	4.55	17.9%	7.4%	89	+0.86	3.66	155	81
Locke St. John L 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	24.7%	10.1%	2.8%	.281	3.51	25.9%	15.4%	109	-0.33	3.07	389	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	54	22.9%	9.7%	1.29	4.59
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*