Harry Gustin — OGILVIE

Harry Gustin P San Antonio Missions

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%11.7%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	3	17	3	4	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	10.12	4.59	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	3	17	3	4	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	10.12	4.59	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	3	17	3	4	0	0%	0.9	17.6%	23.5%	-5.9%	0.0%	10.12	5.35	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	51	228	62	21	4	7%	1.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.1%	3.71	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	51	228	62	21	4	7%	1.8	20.7%	11.0%	9.7%	2.1%	3.71	3.91	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	51	228	62	21	4	7%	1.8	27.2%	9.2%	18.0%	1.8%	3.71	2.92	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	62	250	70	26	3	7%	2.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.5%	2.0%	1.88	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	2	62	250	70	26	3	7%	2.1	23.0%	11.4%	11.5%	2.0%	1.88	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	2	62	250	70	26	3	7%	2.1	28.0%	10.4%	17.6%	1.2%	1.88	2.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	43	0	60	263	74	22	10	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	4.6%	5.28	4.85	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	43	0	60	263	74	22	10	0%	1.4	22.8%	9.2%	13.6%	4.6%	5.28	4.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	SD	43	0	60	263	74	22	10	0%	1.4	28.1%	8.4%	19.8%	3.8%	5.28	3.87	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SD	5	0	5	22	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	10.8%	11.7%	2.8%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	65	285	79	24	11	—	—	27.7%	8.6%	19.2%	3.7%	5.22	4.82	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SD	56	0	59	250	57	25	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.40	4.35	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	SD	56	0	59	250	58	25	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.8%	4.36	4.33	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SD	55	0	58	246	57	24	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	25	11	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.40	4.35	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SD	38	0	40	169	39	17	5	0%	1.1	23.2%	9.9%	13.3%	2.8%	4.36	4.33	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SD	43	0	45	190	44	19	5	0%	1.0	23.2%	10.0%	13.3%	2.9%	4.36	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	0	111	467	108	47	13	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	3.97	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	85	23	0%	1.1	23.2%	10.0%	13.2%	2.9%	4.37	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		104	4	176	758	168	82	22	4%	1.7	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.9%	3.69	4.18	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	5	200	863	191	93	25	4%	1.7	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.9%	3.69	4.18	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Harry Gustin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.6%	10.8%	2.8%	—	4.35	23.2%	13.2%	176	-0.15	—	—	—
Daniel Stumpf L 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	20.8%	11.5%	2.8%	.268	3.54	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.77	1.84	238	91
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	90
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	90
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	89
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	89
Graeme Stinson L 2022 · 3.56 FIP	24	SU	3.56	23.0%	10.5%	1.9%	.275	4.85	19.5%	3.9%	45	+1.29	3.56	146	88
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	88
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	88
Michael Theofanopoulos L 2017 · 3.60 FIP	24	SU	3.60	21.0%	9.8%	1.9%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	201	87
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	86
Trey Cumbie L 2019 · 3.44 FIP	23	SU	3.44	22.5%	12.6%	1.2%	.318	4.78	24.4%	8.7%	91	+1.34	3.44	152	85
Chazz Martinez L 2023 · 3.76 FIP	23	SU	3.76	22.2%	12.7%	1.7%	.361	3.43	20.5%	7.7%	135	-0.33	3.09	199	84
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	84
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	84
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	84
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	84
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	84
Shane McCain L 2016 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	18.3%	8.7%	3.3%	.261	5.14	14.2%	10.7%	51	+0.66	4.34	201	84
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	452	84
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	58	23.0%	10.2%	1.10	4.40
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68