Diego Barrera

P Midland RockHounds

Age 27 LHP 6'0" / 165 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX3 levels	44	1	68	2.90	2.88	23.5%	8.0%	—	K 17.9% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.69
2025	25	MIX2 levels	36	1	50	4.14	3.06	22.1%	8.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.66
2026	26	AAOAK	37	0	44	5.68	4.72	21.5%	11.2%	—	K 17.4% · BB 12.3% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	27	MLBOAK	1	0	1	5.06	5.06	17.5%	10.8%	-0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBOAK	16	0	17	5.03	5.07	17.9%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBOAK	20	0	21	5.07	5.14	18.1%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control50Command50

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Doug Slaten (age 27) · Juan Grullon (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%17.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%6.7%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.69	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Athletics	2	0	2	7	2	0	0	0%	1.0	28.6%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	1	68	289	68	23	4	2%	1.6	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	1.7%	2.90	3.69	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	1	68	289	68	23	4	2%	1.6	17.9%	9.2%	8.7%	1.7%	2.90	3.69	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	1	68	289	68	23	4	2%	1.6	23.5%	8.0%	15.6%	1.4%	2.90	2.88	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	50	208	46	17	3	3%	1.4	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	1.8%	4.14	3.66	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	50	208	46	17	3	3%	1.4	18.5%	8.8%	9.7%	1.8%	4.14	3.66	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	50	208	46	17	3	3%	1.4	22.1%	8.2%	13.9%	1.4%	4.14	3.06	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	37	0	44	205	44	23	7	0%	1.2	17.4%	12.3%	5.0%	4.1%	5.68	5.44	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	37	0	44	205	44	23	7	0%	1.2	17.4%	12.3%	5.0%	4.1%	5.68	5.44	—
2026	26	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	37	0	44	205	44	23	7	0%	1.2	21.5%	11.2%	10.2%	3.4%	5.68	4.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	OAK	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.8%	6.7%	3.1%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	42	0	44	187	33	20	6	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.2%	3.2%	5.03	5.07	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	35	0	37	157	28	17	5	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.9%	7.3%	3.3%	5.07	5.14	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	13	8	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.8%	7.2%	3.2%	5.03	5.07	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	20	0	21	89	16	10	3	0%	1.1	18.1%	10.9%	7.3%	3.3%	5.07	5.14	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	0	37	157	28	17	5	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	3.2%	5.05	4.73	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	91	27	0%	1.1	18.0%	10.8%	7.2%	3.2%	5.05	4.73	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		119	2	165	709	128	70	17	2%	1.4	18.0%	9.9%	8.2%	2.4%	3.99	4.16	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		145	2	200	861	155	85	21	2%	1.4	18.0%	9.9%	8.2%	2.4%	3.99	4.16	-1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 44 IPFIP 4.58 → 5.44 (+0.86)K% 21.5% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.46%	—	×0.810	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.22%	—	×1.100	12.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.41%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.10%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.58 → 5.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAMidland RockHounds · 44 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.66 (+0.60)K% 22.9% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.87%	—	×0.810	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.98%	—	×1.100	8.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.60%	÷1.043	×1.200	1.84%

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 6 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.66 (+0.56)K% 15.0% → 11.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.740	11.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.00%	—	×1.180	11.80%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.113	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 123).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AStockton Ports · 39 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.58 (+0.94)K% 29.3% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.27%	—	×0.740	21.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.93%	—	×1.180	9.35%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷1.164	×1.300	2.04%

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 28 IPFIP 3.17 → 3.85 (+0.67)K% 16.4% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.38%	—	×0.770	12.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.150	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷0.867	×1.250	1.24%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Diego Barrera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	17.5%	10.8%	3.1%	—	5.10	18.0%	7.2%	81	+0.04	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	87
Doug Slaten L 2007 · 4.08 FIP	27	SU	4.08	17.2%	8.6%	2.5%	.316	3.81	17.6%	8.2%	73	-0.27	3.22	139	85
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	84
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	84
George Sherrill L 2004 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	15.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.273	2.90	28.3%	18.2%	105	-1.46	2.74	323	83
Ozzie Mendez L 2015 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	14.6%	6.7%	2.6%	.269	3.99	11.3%	3.0%	68	-0.17	3.95	161	83
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Michael Johnson L 2018 · 5.19 FIP	27	SU	5.19	13.4%	10.0%	3.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	256	82
Stephen Peterson L 2015 · 4.59 FIP	27	SU	4.59	13.0%	9.5%	2.5%	.284	3.04	17.3%	6.3%	55	-1.55	3.04	120	81
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	81
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	81
Jeremy Horst L 2013 · 4.46 FIP	27	SU	4.46	17.1%	8.9%	3.0%	.356	3.92	17.2%	5.4%	108	-0.54	2.12	181	81
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	81
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	80
Jose Meraz L 2015 · 4.71 FIP	27	SU	4.71	13.3%	12.0%	2.2%	.331	4.06	15.3%	6.7%	44	-0.65	3.78	110	80
Juan Martinez L 2019 · 4.81 FIP	27	SU	4.81	14.4%	9.2%	3.2%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	273	80
Braulio Lara L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	17.7%	11.0%	2.5%	.289	5.80	19.8%	2.0%	40	+1.45	3.96	118	80
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.8%	10.8%	1.22	5.05
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*