Bailey Horn

P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 29 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

ARPIL-6040-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	48	1	58	5.15	5.01	24.2%	11.9%	-0.3	K 21.5% · BB 11.0% · FIP 5.16
2025	27	MIX3 levels	42	6	54	3.33	3.47	26.1%	11.2%	0.7	K 23.3% · BB 10.4% · FIP 3.90
2026	28	ADET	2	2	2	0.00	0.70	33.3%	0.0%	—	K 33.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 0.29
2027PROJ	29	MLBDET	1	0	1	5.07	5.04	21.6%	13.2%	-0.0
2028PROJ32% MLB	30	MLBDET	14	0	15	5.10	5.17	21.1%	13.1%	-0.1
2029PROJ52% MLB	31	MLBDET	19	0	20	5.22	5.34	20.5%	13.1%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo64

K%35

xwOBA vs10

Career WAR3.3 WAR median (P10 2.4 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 9%

CompsRaul Valdes (age 32) · Stephen Randolph (age 29) · Andrew Barbosa (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113121vR 129

ERA5.07

FIP5.04

K%21.6%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP38

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.366

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	60	265	69	29	7	67%	2.9	19.7%	12.7%	7.0%	3.6%	5.40	4.99	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	60	265	69	29	7	67%	2.9	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	2.6%	5.40	3.77	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	52	226	74	32	5	0%	1.6	24.7%	15.6%	9.1%	3.1%	2.79	4.71	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	52	226	74	32	5	0%	1.6	32.7%	14.2%	18.6%	2.2%	2.79	3.35	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	272	78	32	5	0%	1.4	21.4%	10.3%	11.2%	2.4%	4.21	3.91	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	62	272	78	32	5	0%	1.4	28.7%	11.8%	16.9%	1.8%	4.21	3.18	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	58	260	63	31	11	2%	1.2	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	4.5%	5.15	5.16	-0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	58	260	63	31	11	2%	1.2	21.5%	11.0%	10.5%	4.5%	5.15	5.16	-0.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	58	260	63	31	11	2%	1.2	24.2%	11.9%	12.3%	4.2%	5.15	5.01	-0.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	6	54	241	63	27	5	14%	1.3	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	2.6%	3.33	3.90	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	6	54	241	63	27	5	14%	1.3	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	2.6%	3.33	3.90	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	6	54	241	63	27	5	14%	1.3	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	2.1%	3.33	3.47	+0.7
2026	28	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	2	6	2	0	0	100%	0.8	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	28	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	2	6	2	0	0	100%	0.8	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
2026	28	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	2	6	2	0	0	100%	0.8	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.70	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	0	29	138	23	15	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	4.3%	4.60	5.72	-0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	DET	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	13.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.07	5.04	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	45	0	47	198	42	26	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.3%	5.10	5.17	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	DET	36	0	38	160	33	21	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	3.5%	5.22	5.34	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	14	0	15	63	13	8	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	3.3%	5.10	5.17	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	DET	19	0	20	84	17	11	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	13.1%	7.4%	3.5%	5.22	5.34	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	284	53	34	11	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.9%	4.91	5.16	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	889	166	106	34	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	3.9%	4.91	5.16	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		191	23	287	1270	280	151	41	12%	1.5	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.20	4.52	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	16	200	885	195	105	29	12%	1.5	22.1%	11.9%	10.2%	3.2%	4.20	4.52	-1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 41 IPFIP 3.26 → 3.78 (+0.52)K% 28.2% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.18%	—	×0.860	24.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.50%	—	×0.900	9.45%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷0.872	×1.100	2.79%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 40 IPFIP 4.25 → 4.63 (+0.37)K% 29.1% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.07%	—	×0.860	25.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.37%	—	×0.900	12.03%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷0.996	×1.100	3.85%

Result: FIP 4.25 → 4.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAIowa Cubs · 53 IPFIP 3.60 → 3.91 (+0.31)K% 24.9% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.89%	—	×0.860	21.41%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.39%	—	×0.900	10.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.11%	÷0.965	×1.100	2.40%

Result: FIP 3.60 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AATennessee Smokies · 9 IPFIP 0.33 → 1.38 (+1.05)K% 54.3% → 44.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	54.29%	—	×0.810	43.97%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.100	15.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.082	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 0.33 → 1.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATennessee Smokies · 42 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.71 (+0.94)K% 30.5% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.53%	—	×0.810	24.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.21%	—	×1.100	15.63%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷1.010	×1.200	3.13%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+South Bend Cubs · 10 IPFIP 1.11 → 2.23 (+1.13)K% 44.4% → 34.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	44.44%	—	×0.770	34.22%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.150	15.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.938	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 88).

Result: FIP 1.11 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+South Bend Cubs · 33 IPFIP 5.36 → 6.95 (+1.59)K% 23.9% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.87%	—	×0.770	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.19%	—	×1.150	16.32%
HR / BF /BF	4.52%	÷0.928	×1.250	6.08%

Result: FIP 5.36 → 6.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AKannapolis Cannon Ballers · 27 IPFIP 1.45 → 2.23 (+0.78)K% 29.1% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.09%	—	×0.740	21.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.36%	—	×1.180	7.51%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.925	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 1.45 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Horn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	21.6%	13.2%	3.1%	—	5.25	20.9%	7.8%	85	+0.21	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2010 · 4.02 FIP	32	SU	4.02	21.4%	9.9%	2.7%	.301	3.14	27.4%	22.5%	78	-0.88	2.29	160	82
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	80
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	80
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	79
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	78
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	76
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	74
Aaron Brown L 2021 · 4.13 FIP	29	SU	4.13	17.4%	12.8%	1.6%	.275	5.38	21.3%	8.8%	66	+1.25	4.04	269	73
Mike Zagurski L 2012 · 4.48 FIP	29	SU	4.48	20.9%	11.7%	3.0%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	71
Clay Rapada L 2011 · 4.34 FIP	30	SU	4.34	26.1%	10.1%	3.9%	.268	3.00	24.5%	14.2%	38	-1.34	3.00	120	71
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	71
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	70
Vic Darensbourg L 2000 · 3.93 FIP	29	SU	3.93	21.5%	9.9%	2.5%	.298	4.26	15.3%	9.6%	97	+0.33	2.94	287	70
Sammy Solís L 2018 · 4.39 FIP	29	SU	4.39	24.9%	9.6%	4.0%	.330	4.05	26.2%	17.3%	23	-0.34	2.51	190	70
Colt Hynes L 2013 · 4.76 FIP	28	SU	4.76	15.5%	8.3%	3.5%	.361	3.49	19.3%	12.8%	96	-1.27	3.42	169	70
Damaso Marte L 2004 · 4.27 FIP	29	SU	4.27	22.4%	9.9%	3.3%	.236	3.28	25.9%	15.1%	149	-0.99	2.41	495	69
Matt Whitehouse L 2019 · 4.07 FIP	28	SW	4.07	20.1%	10.9%	2.3%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	353	69
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	69
Jared Koenig L 2023 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	21.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.364	2.91	23.7%	16.2%	148	-1.21	2.79	475	68
Randy Keisler L 2005 · 5.07 FIP	29	SW	5.07	16.4%	9.9%	3.8%	.295	5.51	6.5%	0.0%	17	+0.44	5.07	135	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	52	20.2%	13.0%	1.36	5.03
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*