Bailey Horn
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 ROS PROJECTION2 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118128vR 137
ERA5.19
FIP5.23
K%21.9%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%7.7%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.366
CT+1.1 (18%)
SL (29%)
SI (20%)
FB-0.9 (52%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 14 | 60 | 265 | 69 | 29 | 7 | 67% | 2.9 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 5.16 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 14 | 60 | 265 | 69 | 29 | 7 | 67% | 2.9 | 26.0% | 10.9% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 5.40 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 74 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 2.79 | 4.69 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 74 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 32.7% | 14.2% | 18.6% | 2.2% | 2.79 | 3.35 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 78 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 4.21 | 4.13 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 78 | 32 | 5 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.7% | 11.8% | 16.9% | 1.8% | 4.21 | 3.18 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 58 | 260 | 63 | 31 | 11 | 2% | 1.2 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 5.15 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 48 | 1 | 58 | 260 | 63 | 31 | 11 | 2% | 1.2 | 24.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 4.2% | 5.15 | 5.01 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 6 | 54 | 241 | 63 | 27 | 5 | 14% | 1.3 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 3.33 | 4.24 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 6 | 54 | 241 | 63 | 27 | 5 | 14% | 1.3 | 26.1% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 3.33 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 26 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.23 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 5.23 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 45 | 188 | 42 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 22.3% | 13.8% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 5.00 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 21.9% | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 5.19 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 58 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 56 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 13.9% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.29 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 55 | 0 | 58 | 243 | 51 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 5.43 | -0.6 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 18 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 13.9% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 5.29 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 3.6% | 5.31 | 5.43 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 75 | 0 | 80 | 352 | 68 | 45 | 13 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.17 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 188 | 1 | 200 | 880 | 170 | 112 | 32 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.02 | 5.17 | +0.5 | ||
| Career | — | 191 | 23 | 287 | 1270 | 284 | 162 | 43 | 12% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.68 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 16 | 200 | 885 | 198 | 113 | 30 | 12% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.20 | 4.68 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bailey Horn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.23 | 21.9% | 14.2% | 3.3% | — | 5.36 | 21.2% | 7.3% | 119 | +0.13 | — | — | — |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 75 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.06 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.73 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.33 | 3.73 | 108 | 74 |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .308 | 5.05 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.81 | 3.43 | 134 | 74 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.04 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.07 | 246 | 73 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.71 | 22.3% | 12.5% | 3.5% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.96 | 265 | 73 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.12 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 73 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 5.86 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.86 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 4.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 118 | 73 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 72 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.01 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 3.8% | .328 | 4.42 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.59 | 3.47 | 315 | 72 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.07 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 152 | 71 |
| Will Lamb L 2024 · 5.47 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.47 | 20.0% | 14.0% | 4.2% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 178 | 70 |
| Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 70 |
| Diego Barrera L 2024 · 5.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.75 | 19.1% | 12.5% | 4.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 137 | 70 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.04 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.2% | .324 | 4.73 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.31 | 3.33 | 228 | 70 |
| Tristan Garnett L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.13 | 19.8% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 185 | 70 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.97 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% | .250 | 4.31 | 25.4% | 16.0% | 62 | -1.66 | 2.51 | 190 | 70 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.60 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .270 | 3.28 | 24.6% | 15.2% | 145 | -1.32 | 2.43 | 453 | 69 |
| Justin King L 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.56 | 24.2% | 23.6% | 2.8% | .395 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 111 | 69 |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2025 · 6.14 FIP | 27 | SU | 6.14 | 18.2% | 17.0% | 4.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 119 | 69 |
| Bryan Harper L 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.72 | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 133 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 21.4% | 14.0% | 1.32 | 5.24 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |