Bailey Horn
P
Lakeland Flying Tigers
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 28
LHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
ERA4.69
FIP4.67
xFIP4.31
SIERA4.78
K%22.8%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.7%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2027
STUF4545
CTRL3030
CMD3030
K†5555
FB Velo
p6495.5
Whiff%
p3322.9%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.366
CT+1.1 (18%)
SL (29%)
SI (20%)
FB-0.9 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | 21 | 14 | 60 | 265 | 69 | 29 | 7 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | 33 | 0 | 52 | 226 | 74 | 32 | 5 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 3.1% | 2.79 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 45 | 0 | 62 | 272 | 78 | 32 | 5 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 4.21 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 48 | 1 | 58 | 260 | 63 | 31 | 11 | 21.9% | 12.4% | 4.6% | 5.15 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 42 | 6 | 54 | 241 | 63 | 27 | 5 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 3.33 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | DET | 16 | — | 16 | 68 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 5.17 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | DET | — | — | 18 | 74 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 23.5% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.69 | 4.55 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | DET | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 49 | 29 | 7 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 3.2% | 5.05 | 5.02 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 21.8% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 5.04 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 44 | 27 | 7 | 21.3% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 5.08 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 41 | 26 | 7 | 20.7% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 5.16 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 38 | 25 | 7 | 20.1% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 35 | 24 | 6 | 19.4% | 13.3% | 3.6% | 5.40 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | DET | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 32 | 23 | 6 | 18.6% | 13.5% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | DET | 38 | — | 38 | 159 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 17.8% | 13.8% | 3.8% | 5.70 | 5.80 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 191 | 23 | 287 | 1270 | 284 | 162 | 41 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.59 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 133 | 16 | 200 | 885 | 198 | 113 | 29 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.20 | 4.59 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bailey Horn (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.02 | 22.7% | 13.5% | 3.2% | — | 5.07 | 21.8% | 8.8% | 152 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Ashur Tolliver L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.19 | 21.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | .308 | 5.03 | 13.8% | -5.1% | 35 | +0.84 | 3.48 | 134 | 77 |
| Jason Blanchard L 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.57 | 19.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 171 | 76 |
| Trevor Lane L 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.05 | 22.2% | 12.7% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 246 | 76 |
| Jeremy Horst L 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.12 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 2.2% | .291 | 3.71 | 15.1% | 2.7% | 48 | -0.41 | 3.71 | 108 | 74 |
| Josh Osich L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.26 | 21.4% | 12.9% | 4.2% | .328 | 4.44 | 21.1% | 14.1% | 143 | -0.82 | 3.41 | 315 | 74 |
| Trey Jeans L 2024 · 5.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.11 | 22.3% | 16.5% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 111 | 73 |
| Zac Rosscup L 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 24.6% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 2.82 | 29.5% | 21.7% | 40 | -1.75 | 2.58 | 160 | 73 |
| Aaron Brown L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .317 | 4.77 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 129 | +0.75 | 4.02 | 269 | 73 |
| Mike Minor L 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.65 | 19.2% | 11.8% | 4.9% | .330 | 3.73 | 23.2% | 16.4% | 443 | -1.92 | 2.38 | 807 | 72 |
| Sammy Solís L 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.95 | 20.9% | 11.5% | 5.8% | .250 | 4.30 | 25.4% | 16.0% | 62 | -1.65 | 2.50 | 190 | 72 |
| Braulio Lara L 2026 · 5.80 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.80 | 19.8% | 17.8% | 3.9% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 118 | 72 |
| Jacob Latz L 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.58 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .270 | 3.69 | 23.0% | 11.8% | 100 | -0.89 | 3.22 | 408 | 72 |
| Juan Grullon L 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.67 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 134 | 72 |
| Jordan Harrison L 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.82 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 2.0% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 244 | 71 |
| Trey Cumbie L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.08 | 23.3% | 16.1% | 3.5% | .215 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 152 | 71 |
| Sam Freeman L 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.4% | 14.6% | 2.3% | .265 | 3.56 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 166 | -0.67 | 3.06 | 299 | 71 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 141 | 70 |
| Marlon Arias L 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 16.8% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .330 | 3.73 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 22 | -0.57 | 3.73 | 154 | 70 |
| Keith Hessler L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 5.16 | 15.5% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.04 | 19.8% | 6.5% | 53 | -0.12 | 3.29 | 228 | 70 |
| Ismael Guillón L 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.65 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 193 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.