Bailey Horn — OGILVIE

Bailey Horn P Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 28 LHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114122vR 130

ERA5.13

FIP5.11

K%21.2%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP61

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p3322.9%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.366

CT+1.1 (18%)

SL (29%)

SI (20%)

FB-0.9 (52%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	14	60	265	69	29	7	67%	2.9	19.7%	12.7%	7.0%	3.6%	5.40	4.99	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	14	60	265	69	29	7	67%	2.9	26.0%	10.9%	15.1%	2.6%	5.40	3.77	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	52	226	74	32	5	0%	1.6	24.7%	15.6%	9.1%	3.1%	2.79	4.71	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	52	226	74	32	5	0%	1.6	32.7%	14.2%	18.6%	2.2%	2.79	3.35	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	272	78	32	5	0%	1.4	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	2.4%	4.21	3.97	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	272	78	32	5	0%	1.4	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	2.4%	4.21	3.97	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	62	272	78	32	5	0%	1.4	28.7%	11.8%	16.9%	1.8%	4.21	3.18	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	58	260	63	31	11	2%	1.2	21.0%	11.0%	9.9%	4.5%	5.15	5.21	-0.4
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	1	58	260	63	31	11	2%	1.2	21.0%	11.0%	9.9%	4.5%	5.15	5.21	-0.4
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	1	58	260	63	31	11	2%	1.2	24.2%	11.9%	12.3%	4.2%	5.15	5.01	-0.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	6	54	241	63	27	5	14%	1.3	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	2.6%	3.33	3.96	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	6	54	241	63	27	5	14%	1.3	22.7%	10.4%	12.2%	2.6%	3.33	3.96	+0.4
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	6	54	241	63	27	5	14%	1.3	26.1%	11.2%	14.9%	2.1%	3.33	3.47	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			28	0	29	138	23	15	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	4.3%	4.60	5.72	-0.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	2	6	2	0	0	100%	0.8	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
YTD	28	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	2	2	2	6	2	0	0	100%	0.8	—	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	A RAW	DET	2	2	2	6	2	0	0	100%	0.8	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	DET	58	0	61	259	54	34	9	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.13	5.19	-0.4
2028	30	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	58	243	49	32	9	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	3.5%	5.22	5.33	-0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	DET	19	0	20	84	18	11	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.0%	7.9%	3.3%	5.13	5.19	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	DET	29	0	30	127	26	16	4	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.0%	7.3%	3.5%	5.22	5.33	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	0	79	347	66	42	13	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.1%	6.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.12	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	880	168	107	33	0%	1.0	19.0%	12.1%	6.8%	3.8%	4.97	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		191	23	287	1270	275	151	41	12%	1.5	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.20	4.55	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	16	200	885	192	105	29	12%	1.5	21.7%	11.9%	9.8%	3.2%	4.20	4.55	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bailey Horn (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.11	21.2%	13.1%	3.2%	—	5.26	20.6%	7.6%	119	+0.15	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	76
Ashur Tolliver L 2016 · 4.19 FIP	28	SU	4.19	21.3%	9.8%	3.0%	.308	5.03	13.8%	-5.1%	35	+0.84	3.49	134	76
Trevor Lane L 2022 · 4.05 FIP	28	SU	4.05	22.2%	12.7%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	246	74
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	73
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	73
Josh Osich L 2017 · 5.00 FIP	28	SU	5.00	21.4%	12.9%	3.8%	.328	4.47	21.1%	14.1%	143	-0.53	3.41	315	72
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	72
Keith Hessler L 2017 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	15.5%	11.8%	3.5%	.324	4.96	19.8%	6.5%	53	-0.22	3.31	228	72
Braulio Lara L 2017 · 5.80 FIP	28	SU	5.80	19.8%	17.8%	3.9%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	118	71
Sammy Solís L 2017 · 5.93 FIP	28	SU	5.93	20.9%	11.5%	5.7%	.250	4.27	25.4%	16.0%	62	-1.66	2.51	190	71
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	70
Adrian Gusman L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	27	SU	4.31	17.9%	9.7%	2.7%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	141	70
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	70
Bryan Harper L 2018 · 4.63 FIP	28	SU	4.63	14.9%	13.9%	1.9%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	133	69
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	69
Kit Scheetz L 2021 · 5.08 FIP	27	SU	5.08	16.2%	13.6%	2.9%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.34	195	69
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.90	18.7%	4.0%	103	+0.49	3.16	199	69
Will Lamb L 2017 · 5.78 FIP	26	SU	5.78	20.0%	14.0%	4.7%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	178	69
Kevin Siegrist L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	28	SU	3.95	25.0%	11.6%	2.7%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	176	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.8%	13.0%	1.29	5.16
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15