Cody Bradford — OGILVIE

Cody Bradford P Texas Rangers

Age 28 LHP 6'4" / 197 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA3.94

FIP4.08

K%15.7%

BB%4.4%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.5

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1011.2%

xwOBA vs

p130.356

FB+9.2 (52%)

CH+1.6 (27%)

CU (13%)

SL-1.9 (7%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.500 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	20	96	408	128	21	10	100%	4.8	24.6%	5.9%	18.7%	3.4%	4.11	3.63	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	20	96	408	128	21	10	100%	4.8	31.4%	5.1%	26.2%	2.5%	4.11	2.45	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	119	503	124	33	18	100%	4.6	20.0%	7.2%	12.8%	4.7%	5.01	4.91	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Frisco RoughRiders	26	26	119	503	124	33	18	100%	4.6	24.7%	6.6%	18.1%	3.6%	5.01	3.82	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	22	130	539	116	28	17	65%	3.8	19.5%	4.9%	14.6%	3.1%	4.35	3.77	+1.8
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	22	130	539	116	28	17	65%	3.8	19.5%	4.9%	14.6%	3.1%	4.35	3.77	+1.8
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	22	130	539	116	28	17	65%	3.8	21.5%	5.2%	16.3%	3.2%	4.35	3.66	+1.9
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	15	82	327	76	13	10	88%	4.8	22.7%	4.2%	18.5%	3.0%	3.29	3.37	+1.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	15	82	327	76	13	10	88%	4.8	22.7%	4.2%	18.5%	3.0%	3.29	3.37	+1.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	15	82	327	76	13	10	88%	4.8	23.2%	4.0%	19.3%	3.1%	3.29	3.31	+1.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			41	28	167	694	138	34	25	68%	4.1	19.9%	4.9%	15.0%	3.6%	4.37	4.01	+1.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	12	46	200	33	11	6	100%	3.9	11.2%	5.9%	5.3%	2.4%	4.08	4.25	+0.4
YTD	28	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	12	12	46	200	33	11	6	100%	3.9	11.2%	5.9%	5.3%	2.4%	4.08	4.25	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	TEX	3	3	6	24	9	2	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	8.3%	29.2%	0.0%	1.50	0.99	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	TEX	2	2	6	24	7	0	2	100%	3.0	29.2%	0.0%	29.2%	8.3%	3.00	5.21	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	TEX	7	7	34	152	17	9	4	100%	4.9	11.2%	5.9%	5.3%	2.6%	4.72	4.35	+0.2
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	TEX	7	7	34	152	17	9	4	100%	4.9	11.2%	5.9%	5.3%	2.6%	4.72	4.35	+0.2
ROS	28	MLB MLE	TEX	1	1	6	25	4	1	1	100%	5.9	15.7%	4.4%	11.3%	3.2%	3.94	4.08	+0.1
ROS	28	MLB CTX	TEX	1	1	6	25	4	1	1	100%	6.0	15.7%	4.4%	11.3%	3.4%	4.07	4.21	+0.1
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	52	225	37	12	7	—	—	16.4%	5.4%	11.0%	3.0%	4.06	4.23	+0.2
FULL	28	MLB A+C	TEX	—	—	40	170	37	12	7	—	—	21.7%	7.1%	14.6%	4.0%	5.29	4.38	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	67	284	45	13	9	100%	6.1	15.8%	4.7%	11.1%	3.2%	4.40	4.52	+0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	TEX	11	11	63	267	40	13	9	100%	5.8	15.1%	5.0%	10.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.73	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	TEX	11	11	64	270	43	13	9	100%	5.8	15.8%	4.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.53	4.65	+0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	TEX	10	10	60	253	38	13	9	100%	6.0	15.1%	5.0%	10.1%	3.7%	4.74	4.87	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	50	297	1243	223	60	45	79%	4.7	17.9%	4.9%	13.1%	3.6%	4.48	4.17	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	34	200	838	150	40	30	79%	4.7	17.9%	4.9%	13.1%	3.6%	4.48	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		109	95	474	1977	402	112	69	87%	4.3	20.3%	5.7%	14.7%	3.5%	4.26	4.01	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	40	200	835	170	47	29	87%	4.3	20.3%	5.7%	14.7%	3.5%	4.26	4.01	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cody Bradford (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	19.0%	3.8%	3.2%	—	4.62	15.4%	10.6%	131	+0.49	—	—	—
John Lamb L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	28	SP	4.64	22.5%	7.2%	4.6%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	390	70
Andrew Albers L 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	12.4%	7.2%	2.1%	.354	3.51	17.9%	12.6%	303	-0.62	2.98	508	69
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	69
Eric Surkamp L 2015 · 4.00 FIP	28	SP-	4.00	18.2%	6.7%	2.9%	.308	5.09	16.4%	7.1%	68	+1.09	4.00	182	69
Brent Suter L 2018 · 4.15 FIP	28	SP	4.15	19.8%	4.0%	4.0%	.275	3.15	24.1%	18.9%	123	-1.00	2.15	949	67
Yohan Flande L 2015 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP-	4.68	12.9%	5.5%	3.6%	.289	3.27	15.1%	8.4%	172	-1.41	3.18	335	67
David Holmberg L 2018 · 4.78 FIP	27	SP-	4.78	12.0%	6.6%	3.4%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	514	66
Hyun Jin Ryu L 2016 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP	3.95	15.2%	1.6%	3.5%	.241	3.33	23.2%	18.4%	392	-0.62	2.79	725	66
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	103	66
Alejandro Soto L 2015 · 4.41 FIP	29	SP	4.41	12.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.367	4.07	14.6%	9.1%	128	-0.34	3.96	280	65
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	65
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	64
Derek Holland L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	16.7%	6.1%	4.3%	.270	4.63	18.8%	9.6%	414	-0.20	3.75	686	64
Nick Greenwood L 2016 · 3.71 FIP	28	SP-	3.71	11.2%	2.9%	2.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	241	64
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	63
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	63
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	62
Kyle Hald L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	26	SP	4.33	12.1%	7.4%	2.4%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	4.33	124	62
Cade Gibson L 2023 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP	4.57	15.0%	8.5%	3.0%	.306	3.43	18.9%	9.4%	222	-1.14	3.13	340	62
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	16.7%	4.5%	1.28	4.32
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21