Sean Sullivan P Albuquerque Isotopes
Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.0 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION77 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8595vR 104
ERA3.69
FIP3.69
K%19.0%
BB%5.4%
K-BB%13.6%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
K: -3.1 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)-3KBB: +1.1 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)+1BBCONTACT: -5.5 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)-5CONTACTSTAM: +14.0 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+14STAMTotal WAR: +0.69 (103 IP)+0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.30.50.50.4+$8M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP—45
STUF4050
CTRL4560
CMD6065
K†5050
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1087.6
Whiff%
p1016.2%
K%
p1014.0%
xwOBA vs
p300.335
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSPre-Arb$0.3M+0.3$1M+$0.8M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Arb-1$3M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $6M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202321MIX2 levels3041310100%1.376.9%7.7%69.2%0.0%0.00-2.42—
202321MIX2 levels3041310100%1.376.9%7.7%69.2%0.0%0.00-1.15—
202422MIX2 levels2121115444125159100%5.521.9%3.8%18.1%2.3%2.113.01—
202422MIX2 levels2121115444125159100%5.528.2%3.4%24.8%2.0%2.112.34—
202523MIX3 levels2020104418104257100%5.219.6%6.7%12.9%1.4%2.943.07—
202523MIX3 levels2020104418104257100%5.224.9%6.0%18.9%1.7%2.942.70—
▸ 2026 Season
202624MLBColorado Rockies161677361663015100%4.816.6%8.6%8.0%4.4%6.555.22-0.3
ROS24MLBCOL55261112163100%5.319.0%5.4%13.6%2.8%3.693.69+0.3
ROS24MLBCOL55261102164100%5.219.0%5.4%13.6%3.2%3.933.93+0.2
2026 TOT24MLBCOL——103472873618——18.5%7.6%10.8%3.8%5.824.83+0.7
2026 FULL24MLBCOL——49205873619——42.4%17.5%24.9%9.0%12.496.69-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202725MLBCOL13137330961189100%5.619.7%6.0%13.7%2.8%4.164.12+0.6
202826MLBCOL12127330963199100%6.120.3%6.2%14.1%2.8%4.134.10+0.6
202927MLBCOL12127230462209100%6.020.4%6.4%14.0%2.9%4.154.15+0.6
203028MLBCOL12127029560209100%5.820.4%6.6%13.8%3.0%4.214.24+0.4
202725MLBCOL121270296581810100%5.819.7%6.0%13.7%3.2%4.404.36+0.3
202826MLBCOL121270296601810100%5.820.3%6.2%14.1%3.3%4.374.34+0.3
202927MLBCOL111168287591810100%6.220.4%6.4%14.0%3.3%4.394.39+0.3
203028MLBCOL111166279571810100%6.020.4%6.6%13.8%3.4%4.464.49+0.1
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career—565632313822719047100%5.819.6%6.5%13.1%3.4%4.674.13+4.8
/ 200 IP—35352008571685629100%5.719.6%6.5%13.1%3.4%4.674.13+3.0
Career—60573001236249773295%5.020.2%6.2%13.9%2.6%3.513.62+6.3
/ 200 IP—4038200823166512195%5.020.2%6.2%13.9%2.6%3.513.62+4.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE) —— 3.70 20.1%4.5%2.5%— 4.12 20.1%13.9%218 +0.42 ———
Marco Gonzales L 2025 · 4.20 FIP 23 SP 4.20 14.4%7.7%2.4%.355 3.68 19.7%14.2%287 -0.52 3.14 1,145 79
Brian Johnson L 2026 · 3.38 FIP 24 SP 3.38 20.3%8.6%1.7%.260 4.51 17.2%8.3%294 +1.13 3.38 506 78
Brett Oberholtzer L 2028 · 4.08 FIP 26 SP 4.08 15.7%6.4%2.7%.299 4.73 13.8%5.9%334 +0.65 3.98 442 75
Martín Pérez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP 24 SP 3.18 14.9%5.9%1.1%.335 4.52 13.1%4.8%469 +1.34 3.14 1,519 72
Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP 24 SP 4.22 20.9%10.1%2.9%.279 — ——— — 2.95 221 70
Kyle Lobstein L 2027 · 4.73 FIP 25 SP 4.73 11.8%8.5%2.8%.336 3.92 15.9%7.2%187 -0.82 3.27 379 69
Tim Cooney L 2026 · 3.37 FIP 24 SP 3.37 18.0%5.1%2.1%.225 — ——— — 3.37 120 69
Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP 24 SP 3.81 18.5%7.5%2.4%.308 — ——— — 3.80 152 67
Aríel Miranda L 2028 · 3.38 FIP 26 SP 3.38 18.3%10.2%0.9%.280 5.41 19.2%10.2%364 +2.03 3.38 431 67
Tyler Skaggs L 2027 · 3.21 FIP 25 SP 3.21 26.1%9.2%2.1%.300 3.81 23.0%15.2%290 +0.60 3.21 372 67
Jayson Aquino L 2026 · 4.80 FIP 24 SP 4.80 16.1%8.7%3.6%.310 3.61 12.9%2.1%58 -1.19 3.61 451 67
Jake Bennett L 2026 · 3.48 FIP 24 SP 3.48 16.4%7.7%1.4%.276 2.79 21.0%16.1%87 -0.69 2.79 219 66
Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP 23 SP 3.89 22.0%8.1%3.0%.254 — ——— — 3.32 153 66
Kent Emanuel L 2026 · 3.82 FIP 24 SP 3.82 13.0%6.1%1.9%.324 4.16 16.9%10.1%302 +0.34 2.98 616 66
Patrick Corbin L 2028 · 3.29 FIP 26 SP 3.29 20.6%5.3%2.3%.312 3.39 24.1%17.2%545 +0.10 2.20 1,825 66
James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP 26 SP 4.26 18.9%9.4%2.8%.288 3.00 27.7%21.7%468 -1.26 2.48 924 66
Connor Wietgrefe L 2026 · 4.26 FIP 24 SP 4.26 18.7%8.5%3.0%.279 — ——— — 4.15 200 65
Wes Benjamin L 2026 · 3.88 FIP 24 SP 3.88 15.4%7.7%2.0%.344 4.80 17.4%8.9%237 +0.92 3.88 666 65
Brant Hurter L 2026 · 3.03 FIP 24 SP 3.03 21.6%7.3%1.5%.311 3.81 21.1%13.6%205 +0.78 2.84 430 65
Tyler Anderson L 2028 · 3.14 FIP 26 SP 3.14 20.2%5.9%1.8%.310 4.00 22.3%14.4%295 +0.86 3.14 1,288 65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION56720.2%6.0%1.094.10
Fernando Salas ('18)45922.5%6.6%1.224.42
Nick Vincent ('20)64522.7%6.3%1.133.71
Blaine Hardy ('19)55018.6%7.7%1.113.91
Tommy Hunter ('23)74121.2%5.7%1.003.72
Joe Smith ('22)74422.5%6.4%1.083.67
Austin Pruitt ('23)56116.9%5.6%1.224.45