Sean Sullivan
P
Albuquerque Isotopes
+1.8
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'4" / 200 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.9 · 2028
ERA3.99
FIP3.99
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.3%
BB%7.1%
K-BB%14.2%
IP103
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.9peak
2028
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 21 | 21 | 115 | 444 | 125 | 15 | 9 | 21.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.11 | 3.04 | +3.0 |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 20 | 20 | 104 | 418 | 104 | 25 | 7 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% | 2.94 | 3.29 | +2.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 3 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 2.45 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 436 | 93 | 31 | 11 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | 3.99 | 3.99 | +1.5 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | COL | — | — | 118 | 497 | 108 | 37 | 13 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 3.80 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 117 | 492 | 107 | 35 | 13 | 21.8% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.96 | +1.8 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 115 | 37 | 14 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.96 | +1.9 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 118 | 38 | 14 | 22.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +1.9 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 535 | 118 | 38 | 14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 4.02 | +1.8 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | COL | 23 | 23 | 124 | 523 | 114 | 38 | 14 | 21.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.04 | 4.06 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 120 | 508 | 110 | 37 | 14 | 21.6% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 4.12 | +1.6 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 116 | 490 | 105 | 37 | 14 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +1.4 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 99 | 36 | 14 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.28 | +1.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | COL | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 93 | 35 | 14 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.32 | 4.38 | +1.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | COL | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 87 | 34 | 13 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.49 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | COL | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 81 | 33 | 13 | 20.1% | 8.2% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | COL | 16 | 16 | 89 | 376 | 74 | 32 | 13 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.75 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | COL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 67 | 31 | 12 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 44 | 238 | 936 | 202 | 52 | 20 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 2.46 | 3.17 | +5.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 39 | 37 | 200 | 787 | 170 | 44 | 17 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 2.46 | 3.17 | +4.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% | — | 3.97 | 21.9% | 14.9% | 367 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Brycen Mautz L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.76 | 23.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .281 | 4.00 | 17.0% | -1.4% | 13 | +0.24 | 3.62 | 353 | 84 |
| Ben Shields L 2027 · 3.23 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.23 | 25.3% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .273 | 3.05 | 23.5% | 13.3% | 43 | -0.18 | 3.05 | 147 | 83 |
| Gage Jump L 2024 · 3.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.19 | 22.6% | 7.9% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 113 | 83 |
| Antonio Velez L 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.56 | 19.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | .241 | 5.07 | 19.3% | 12.9% | 88 | +1.51 | 3.56 | 187 | 83 |
| Brant Hurter L 2026 · 3.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.08 | 21.6% | 7.3% | 1.6% | .311 | 3.52 | 21.6% | 14.6% | 180 | +0.44 | 2.88 | 404 | 82 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 81 |
| Ryan Hartman L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.23 | 24.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | .312 | 5.39 | 19.3% | 11.7% | 215 | +2.16 | 3.23 | 456 | 81 |
| Jackson Wolf L 2026 · 4.19 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.19 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | .279 | 4.48 | 18.5% | 7.7% | 231 | +0.29 | 4.15 | 497 | 80 |
| John King L 2026 · 2.83 FIP | 24 | SP- | 2.83 | 18.1% | 3.9% | 1.4% | .310 | 3.97 | 17.4% | 11.3% | 125 | +1.14 | 2.83 | 390 | 80 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 79 |
| Steven Matz L 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.32 | 23.0% | 8.4% | 2.0% | .283 | 4.00 | 22.2% | 15.5% | 366 | +0.68 | 3.11 | 1,167 | 79 |
| Matt Moore L 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.9% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .323 | 4.53 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 475 | +0.39 | 2.83 | 845 | 78 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 78 |
| Miguel Pena L 2027 · 2.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 2.93 | 14.9% | 3.7% | 1.1% | .293 | 4.45 | 16.5% | 8.8% | 175 | +1.52 | 2.93 | 282 | 78 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 78 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 78 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 78 |
| Tim Cooney L 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.53 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 2.4% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 120 | 78 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 77 |
| Michael Plassmeyer L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 21.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | .337 | 4.81 | 21.8% | 13.7% | 266 | +0.53 | 3.40 | 612 | 77 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.9 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.9 | $17M | +$16M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.8 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $4M | +1.7 | $16M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.6 | $15M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +1.4 | $14M | +$5M |
| Totals | $21M | $94M | +$73M | ||