Sean Sullivan — OGILVIE

Sean Sullivan P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.5 · 2027 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8593vR 101

ERA3.56

FIP3.56

K%19.0%

BB%5.0%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4560

CMD6065

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1087.6

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1014.0%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$3M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$7M	+$6M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$10M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$17M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	4	13	10	1	0	0%	1.3	76.9%	7.7%	69.2%	0.0%	0.00	-2.42	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	4	13	10	1	0	0%	1.3	76.9%	7.7%	69.2%	0.0%	0.00	-2.42	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	4	13	10	1	0	0%	1.3	76.9%	7.7%	69.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.15	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	115	444	125	15	9	100%	5.5	21.9%	3.8%	18.1%	2.4%	2.11	3.05	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	115	444	125	15	9	100%	5.5	21.9%	3.8%	18.1%	2.4%	2.11	3.05	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	115	444	125	15	9	100%	5.5	28.2%	3.4%	24.8%	2.0%	2.11	2.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	104	418	104	25	7	100%	5.2	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	1.7%	2.94	3.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	104	418	104	25	7	100%	5.2	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	1.7%	2.94	3.23	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	104	418	104	25	7	100%	5.2	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	1.7%	2.94	2.70	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	5	22	114	16	11	5	100%	4.5	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	4.4%	8.87	6.06	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	17	17	79	368	70	31	15	100%	4.6	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	4.2%	6.52	5.00	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	17	17	79	368	70	31	15	100%	4.6	16.5%	7.9%	8.6%	4.2%	6.52	5.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	COL	12	12	56	254	54	20	10	100%	4.7	21.3%	7.9%	13.4%	3.9%	5.59	4.46	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	COL	5	5	22	114	16	11	5	100%	4.5	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	4.4%	8.87	5.54	-0.2
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	COL	5	5	22	114	16	11	5	100%	4.5	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	4.4%	8.87	5.54	-0.2
ROS	24	MLB MLE	COL	1	1	4	18	3	1	0	100%	4.3	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	2.6%	3.56	3.56	+0.1
ROS	24	MLB CTX	COL	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.0	19.0%	5.0%	14.0%	3.0%	3.78	3.78	+0.1
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	83	386	73	32	15	—	—	19.0%	8.3%	10.8%	4.0%	6.37	4.93	-0.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	COL	—	—	27	113	73	32	16	—	—	65.2%	28.3%	36.9%	13.8%	19.85	8.76	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	105	444	87	25	13	100%	5.8	19.6%	5.6%	14.0%	2.9%	4.16	4.12	+1.0
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	105	444	89	25	13	100%	5.8	20.1%	5.7%	14.4%	2.9%	4.12	4.09	+1.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	104	437	88	26	13	100%	6.1	20.2%	5.9%	14.3%	2.9%	4.13	4.14	+0.9
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	100	424	85	26	13	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.18	4.22	+0.8
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	96	405	81	26	13	100%	6.0	19.9%	6.3%	13.6%	3.2%	4.28	4.35	+0.6
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	15	15	90	380	74	25	13	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.6%	12.9%	3.4%	4.43	4.53	+0.4
2033	31	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	84	355	68	25	13	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.0%	12.2%	3.6%	4.61	4.73	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	78	328	68	22	13	100%	6.0	20.7%	6.6%	14.1%	3.9%	4.66	4.69	+0.2
2035	33	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	301	61	21	12	100%	5.9	20.2%	7.0%	13.2%	4.1%	4.83	4.94	-0.0
2027	25	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	100	422	83	24	14	100%	5.9	19.6%	5.6%	14.0%	3.3%	4.40	4.36	+0.9
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	100	422	85	24	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	5.7%	14.4%	3.3%	4.36	4.33	+1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	98	414	84	24	14	100%	6.1	20.2%	5.9%	14.3%	3.4%	4.38	4.39	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	95	401	81	24	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.1%	14.0%	3.5%	4.43	4.47	+0.8
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	91	384	76	24	14	100%	6.1	19.9%	6.3%	13.6%	3.7%	4.55	4.62	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	86	363	71	24	14	100%	6.1	19.6%	6.6%	12.9%	3.9%	4.71	4.81	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	80	338	65	24	14	100%	6.2	19.1%	7.0%	12.2%	4.2%	4.91	5.03	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	74	312	65	20	14	100%	6.2	20.7%	6.6%	14.1%	4.5%	4.98	5.01	+0.2
2035	33	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	68	287	58	20	14	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.0%	13.2%	4.8%	5.18	5.29	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	138	818	3474	686	221	132	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.4%	13.4%	3.8%	4.73	4.32	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	849	168	54	32	100%	5.9	19.7%	6.4%	13.4%	3.8%	4.73	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		61	58	302	1243	250	75	33	95%	5.0	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	2.7%	3.52	3.63	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	38	200	823	166	50	22	95%	5.0	20.1%	6.0%	14.1%	2.7%	3.52	3.63	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.70	20.1%	4.2%	2.5%	—	4.12	20.0%	14.2%	314	+0.42	—	—	—
Brian Johnson L 2015 · 3.39 FIP	24	SP	3.39	20.3%	8.6%	1.7%	.260	4.58	17.2%	8.3%	294	+1.19	3.39	506	80
Marco Gonzales L 2015 · 4.45 FIP	23	SP	4.45	14.4%	7.7%	2.9%	.355	3.63	19.7%	14.2%	287	-0.82	3.09	1,108	79
Brett Oberholtzer L 2015 · 4.18 FIP	26	SP	4.18	15.7%	6.4%	2.9%	.299	4.77	13.8%	5.9%	334	+0.59	3.89	442	78
Martín Pérez L 2015 · 3.21 FIP	24	SP	3.21	14.9%	5.9%	1.1%	.335	4.50	13.1%	4.8%	469	+1.29	3.11	1,570	74
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	73
Jayson Aquino L 2017 · 4.54 FIP	24	SP	4.54	16.1%	8.7%	3.1%	.310	3.62	12.9%	2.1%	58	-0.92	3.62	451	71
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	70
Kyle Lobstein L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	25	SP	4.64	11.8%	8.5%	2.6%	.336	3.81	15.9%	7.2%	187	-0.83	3.33	379	70
Tyler Anderson L 2016 · 3.30 FIP	26	SP	3.30	20.2%	5.9%	2.1%	.310	4.28	22.3%	14.4%	295	+0.98	3.10	1,288	70
Brant Hurter L 2023 · 3.07 FIP	24	SP	3.07	21.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.311	3.51	20.6%	13.6%	207	+0.44	2.84	432	69
Patrick Corbin L 2015 · 3.34 FIP	26	SP	3.34	20.6%	5.3%	2.4%	.312	3.46	24.1%	17.2%	545	+0.12	2.30	1,829	69
Wei-Chung Wang L 2016 · 3.44 FIP	24	SP	3.44	17.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.321	4.42	16.9%	9.9%	114	+0.98	3.44	387	68
Felix Doubront L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	18.0%	8.4%	2.3%	.304	4.12	23.7%	14.7%	42	+0.20	3.44	291	68
Wes Benjamin L 2017 · 3.87 FIP	24	SP	3.87	15.4%	7.7%	2.0%	.344	4.83	17.4%	8.9%	237	+0.96	3.87	666	68
Tyler Skaggs L 2016 · 3.18 FIP	25	SP	3.18	26.1%	9.2%	2.1%	.300	3.72	23.0%	15.2%	290	+0.54	3.18	372	68
John King L 2019 · 2.85 FIP	24	SP	2.85	18.1%	3.9%	1.4%	.310	3.90	17.4%	11.3%	125	+1.05	2.85	439	68
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	68
Kent Emanuel L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	13.0%	6.1%	2.2%	.324	4.11	16.9%	10.1%	302	+0.12	3.03	644	67
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	67
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	67

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	90	20.0%	6.1%	1.25	4.30
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61