Sean Sullivan

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 25 LHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	21	115	2.11	2.34	28.2%	3.4%	—	K 21.9% · BB 3.8% · FIP 3.05
2025	23	MIX3 levels	20	20	104	2.94	2.70	24.9%	6.0%	—	K 19.6% · BB 6.7% · FIP 3.23
2026	24	MIX2 levels	19	19	83	6.26	4.83	19.2%	8.5%	0.5	K 17.1% · BB 7.9% · FIP 4.83
2027PROJ	25	MLBCOL	8	8	47	4.34	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	0.3
2028PROJ82% MLB	26	MLBCOL	12	12	69	4.77	4.91	16.8%	5.8%	0.6
2029PROJ87% MLB	27	MLBCOL	12	12	69	4.84	4.91	17.2%	6.0%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.529First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs30

FB Velo10

K%10

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 5.9, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 80%

CompsChris Rusin (age 25) · Christian Friedrich (age 25) · Andrew Albers (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.34

FIP4.78

K%14.9%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%9.3%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1087.6

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1014.0%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.529 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	0	4	13	10	1	0	0%	1.3	76.9%	7.7%	69.2%	0.0%	0.00	-2.42	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	0	4	13	10	1	0	0%	1.3	76.9%	7.7%	69.2%	0.0%	0.00	-1.15	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	115	444	125	15	9	100%	5.5	21.9%	3.8%	18.1%	2.4%	2.11	3.05	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	115	444	125	15	9	100%	5.5	21.9%	3.8%	18.1%	2.4%	2.11	3.05	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	115	444	125	15	9	100%	5.5	28.2%	3.4%	24.8%	2.0%	2.11	2.34	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	104	418	104	25	7	100%	5.2	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	1.7%	2.94	3.23	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	20	104	418	104	25	7	100%	5.2	19.6%	6.7%	12.9%	1.7%	2.94	3.23	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	20	104	418	104	25	7	100%	5.2	24.9%	6.0%	18.9%	1.7%	2.94	2.70	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	83	390	75	33	15	100%	4.4	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	4.0%	6.26	4.83	+0.5
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	19	83	390	75	33	15	100%	4.4	17.1%	7.9%	9.2%	4.0%	6.26	4.83	+0.5
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	19	83	390	75	33	15	100%	4.4	19.2%	8.5%	10.8%	3.8%	6.26	4.83	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	5	22	114	16	11	5	100%	4.5	14.0%	9.6%	4.4%	4.4%	8.87	6.06	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	COL	8	8	47	198	30	11	7	100%	5.9	14.9%	5.7%	9.3%	3.4%	4.34	4.78	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	84	356	60	21	12	100%	6.0	16.8%	5.8%	11.0%	3.3%	4.49	4.63	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	80	337	58	20	11	100%	6.1	17.2%	6.0%	11.1%	3.4%	4.56	4.63	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	COL	13	13	76	323	56	20	11	100%	5.9	17.3%	6.3%	11.0%	3.4%	4.64	4.70	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	70	295	50	19	11	100%	5.8	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	3.6%	4.76	4.85	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	62	263	42	18	10	100%	6.2	16.1%	6.8%	9.3%	3.8%	4.94	5.05	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	49	17	11	100%	5.8	16.8%	5.8%	11.0%	3.8%	4.77	4.91	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	50	18	11	100%	5.8	17.2%	6.0%	11.1%	3.9%	4.84	4.91	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	COL	12	12	69	291	50	18	12	100%	5.8	17.3%	6.3%	11.0%	4.0%	4.93	4.99	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	COL	11	11	64	270	45	18	11	100%	5.8	16.8%	6.5%	10.3%	4.1%	5.06	5.15	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	39	17	11	100%	5.8	16.1%	6.8%	9.3%	4.3%	5.26	5.37	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		60	60	351	1501	250	98	61	100%	5.8	16.6%	6.5%	10.1%	4.0%	5.21	4.74	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	856	142	56	35	100%	5.9	16.6%	6.5%	10.1%	4.0%	5.21	4.74	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		63	60	307	1265	256	77	33	95%	4.9	20.2%	6.1%	14.2%	2.6%	3.49	3.60	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	825	167	50	22	95%	4.9	20.2%	6.1%	14.2%	2.6%	3.49	3.60	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 61 IPFIP 4.29 → 4.64 (+0.35)K% 21.4% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.38%	—	×0.860	18.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.97%	—	×0.900	7.17%
HR / BF /BF	3.62%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.99%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.29 → 4.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAHartford Yard Goats · 97 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.23 (+0.42)K% 24.2% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.23%	—	×0.810	19.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.12%	—	×1.100	6.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.79%	÷1.255	×1.200	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 151).

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Spokane Indians · 83 IPFIP 1.96 → 2.79 (+0.84)K% 31.5% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.46%	—	×0.770	24.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.49%	—	×1.150	2.87%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷1.086	×1.250	2.51%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 1.96 → 2.79, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAHartford Yard Goats · 32 IPFIP 3.07 → 3.73 (+0.66)K% 19.5% → 15.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.51%	—	×0.810	15.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.69%	—	×1.100	6.26%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷0.916	×1.200	2.13%

Result: FIP 3.07 → 3.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sean Sullivan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.65	17.1%	11.0%	240	-0.13	—	—	—
Chris Rusin L 2012 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP	4.51	15.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.343	4.42	13.3%	6.8%	245	-0.09	2.89	596	72
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	70
Andrew Albers L 2013 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP	3.92	10.0%	2.8%	2.4%	.275	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	225	+0.20	2.98	568	69
Sean Nolin L 2015 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP	4.88	14.5%	9.5%	3.3%	.273	3.79	20.7%	11.3%	40	-1.09	3.79	309	68
Brian Johnson L 2016 · 5.00 FIP	25	SP	5.00	14.4%	11.5%	3.0%	.283	4.44	18.3%	9.7%	272	-0.56	3.39	506	66
Eric Skoglund L 2018 · 4.94 FIP	25	SP	4.94	16.7%	6.5%	4.4%	.254	5.72	11.0%	3.9%	84	+0.78	2.79	513	65
John Gast L 2013 · 4.15 FIP	24	SP	4.15	15.4%	9.6%	2.1%	.263	3.96	14.1%	6.2%	122	-0.19	3.96	134	65
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	65
Wes Benjamin L 2018 · 4.23 FIP	25	SP	4.23	17.7%	7.7%	3.0%	.296	5.18	16.9%	6.9%	227	+0.95	3.87	666	64
Henry Garcia L 2016 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	12.9%	7.0%	2.9%	.246	4.68	9.2%	-1.0%	95	+0.21	4.47	114	64
Kyle Lobstein L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	25	SP	4.64	11.8%	8.5%	2.6%	.336	3.81	15.9%	7.2%	187	-0.83	3.33	419	63
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	63
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	63
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	63
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	63
Vidal Nuño L 2013 · 4.35 FIP	26	SP-	4.35	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.215	4.24	19.7%	14.3%	366	-0.11	4.00	606	63
Nate Robertson L 2003 · 4.66 FIP	25	SP	4.66	16.3%	10.3%	3.0%	.343	4.54	16.1%	8.6%	602	-0.12	4.13	1,144	63
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	63
Shawn Morimando L 2018 · 4.70 FIP	25	SP	4.70	9.4%	6.1%	2.9%	.353	5.35	20.1%	10.5%	170	+0.65	3.98	685	63
Harrison Musgrave L 2017 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP	5.34	13.8%	11.0%	3.7%	.310	4.64	17.4%	7.7%	85	-0.70	4.01	440	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	66	16.4%	6.4%	1.36	4.82
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Jose Cabrera ('02)	1.4	68	16.2%	7.9%	1.39	4.95
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*