Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.26 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.10 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 18 | 102 | 423 | 101 | 22 | 13 | 86% | 4.9 | 17.7% | 6.1% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 3.79 | 4.21 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 21 | 18 | 102 | 423 | 101 | 22 | 13 | 86% | 4.9 | 23.9% | 5.2% | 18.7% | 3.1% | 3.79 | 3.42 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 22 | 22 | 119 | 506 | 101 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 3.94 | 3.88 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Down East Wood Ducks | 22 | 22 | 119 | 506 | 101 | 34 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 20.0% | 6.7% | 13.2% | 1.6% | 3.94 | 3.13 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 87 | 353 | 81 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 17.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 3.32 | 4.11 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 18 | 87 | 353 | 81 | 24 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.9% | 6.8% | 16.1% | 2.5% | 3.32 | 3.41 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 27 | 25 | 135 | 605 | 114 | 53 | 24 | 93% | 5.0 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.52 | 5.27 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | 27 | 25 | 135 | 605 | 114 | 53 | 24 | 93% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 5.52 | 4.90 | — |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 8 | 1 | 22 | 98 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 12% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 4.0% | 4.84 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 8 | 1 | 22 | 98 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 12% | 2.8 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 14.3% | 4.1% | 4.84 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 12 | 69 | 349 | 61 | 42 | 12 | 43% | 2.5 | 16.0% | 12.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 8.44 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 12 | 69 | 349 | 61 | 42 | 12 | 43% | 2.5 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 8.44 | 5.41 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 7 | 7 | 31 | 130 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 21.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 3.82 | 4.01 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 7 | 7 | 31 | 130 | 32 | 12 | 6 | 100% | 4.4 | 24.6% | 9.2% | 15.4% | 4.6% | 3.82 | 4.73 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 22 | 108 | 500 | 88 | 49 | 16 | 79% | 3.9 | 15.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.42 | 5.10 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 28 | 22 | 108 | 500 | 88 | 49 | 16 | 79% | 3.9 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 6.42 | 4.76 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 41 | 32 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.2% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.56 | 5.52 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 10 | 10 | 62 | 261 | 37 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.70 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 9 | 9 | 56 | 235 | 33 | 27 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.76 | 5.93 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | SD | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 3.0 | 14.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.60 | 5.70 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | SD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.76 | 5.93 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 4 | 49 | 227 | 42 | 26 | 11 | 18% | 2.2 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 6.70 | 5.54 | -0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 15 | 200 | 926 | 172 | 106 | 45 | 17% | 2.3 | 18.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 6.70 | 5.54 | -0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 160 | 126 | 674 | 2969 | 500 | 263 | 99 | 79% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 4.64 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 37 | 200 | 881 | 148 | 78 | 29 | 79% | 4.2 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 5.03 | 4.64 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wes Benjamin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.52 | 14.2% | 11.0% | 3.4% | — | 5.81 | 14.1% | 2.6% | 118 | +0.29 | — | — | — |
| Everett Teaford L 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.36 | 13.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.36 | 103 | 78 |
| Tomas Solis L 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.29 | 12.4% | 8.5% | 3.9% | .273 | 6.43 | 10.1% | 2.4% | 117 | +1.14 | 4.35 | 327 | 73 |
| Jorge Castillo L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.40 | 16.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | .292 | 4.68 | 12.4% | 7.2% | 186 | +0.28 | 4.40 | 408 | 72 |
| Arturo Lopez L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.97 | 11.5% | 7.9% | 3.4% | .341 | 4.75 | 11.3% | 5.2% | 224 | -0.22 | 4.24 | 445 | 70 |
| Jonathan Sánchez L 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SP | 4.65 | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.65 | 109 | 70 |
| Jonathon Niese L 2025 · 5.56 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.56 | 10.9% | 8.2% | 4.2% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 368 | 68 |
| Josh Outman L 2025 · 5.26 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.26 | 12.7% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .322 | 6.40 | 12.9% | -5.6% | 34 | +1.14 | 4.70 | 106 | 67 |
| Orlando Lara L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.45 | 14.7% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .346 | 4.05 | 22.0% | 14.2% | 104 | -0.40 | 3.82 | 426 | 66 |
| Paul Oseguera L 2025 · 5.58 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.58 | 5.6% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 162 | 65 |
| Ross Detwiler L 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.82 | 15.7% | 7.3% | 5.7% | .289 | 4.16 | 24.3% | 17.1% | 98 | -1.66 | 3.47 | 512 | 63 |
| Brad Mills L 2024 · 6.49 FIP | 31 | SP | 6.49 | 14.4% | 11.8% | 5.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.98 | 182 | 63 |
| John Lannan L 2024 · 4.76 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.76 | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.5% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 284 | 63 |
| Scott Kazmir L 2026 · 6.22 FIP | 33 | SP- | 6.22 | 8.7% | 13.0% | 4.0% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 395 | 60 |
| John Danks L 2024 · 5.79 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.79 | 16.0% | 11.0% | 4.8% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 200 | 60 |
| Jaime García L 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.76 | 19.8% | 11.4% | 3.4% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89 | 540 | 53 |
| Carlos Teller L 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.69 | 13.1% | 14.2% | 1.6% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 333 | 53 |
| Sean Nolin L 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 33 | SP | 5.87 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 309 | 49 |
| Edgar Osuna L 2024 · 5.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.04 | 10.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .373 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 175 | 48 |
| Shota Imanaga L 2025 · 4.61 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.61 | 24.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 426 | 42 |
| Miguel Ruiz R 2024 · 5.44 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.44 | 10.6% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.44 | 117 | 40 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 62 | 14.1% | 11.3% | 1.40 | 5.63 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |