Luis Arraez — OGILVIE

Luis ArraezIF San Francisco Giants

Age 29 L/R 5'10" / 186 lbs MLB HR -8%H -3% Svc 6.703 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION402 act + 273 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 92121vR 132

AVG/OBP/SLG.327 / .369 / .433

PA273

HR3

SB5

K%4

BB%5

BABIP332

ISO106

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

901.9%

xwOBA

550.315

POWER35

Barrel%

101.2

Avg EV

1486.4

Bat Spd

1062.1

EYE40

Chase%

6628.6%

SPEED45

Sprint

3326.7

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1457 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

442

1015

—

wRC+

115

▶▶R

wOBA

286

336

▶R

ISO

076

090

▶▶R

BABIP

275

321

▶R

6.6%

2.5%

▶▶R

BB%

3.4%

4.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$5M	+1.6	$13M	+$8M
Totals		$5M		$13M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	135	121	36	5	0	0	10	13	2	10	5	298	361	339	700	41	330	10	7	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	135	115	40	6	0	0	16	9	2	10	5	348	436	400	836	52	374	7	12	379	148	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	2 teams	—	281	257	66	14	1	0	13	17	5	10	9	257	305	319	625	62	273	6	5	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	2 teams	—	281	249	76	15	2	0	21	17	5	10	9	305	371	382	752	76	325	6	7	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	2 teams	—	717	674	210	34	4	2	29	98	1	8	4	312	341	383	724	71	359	14	4	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	2 teams	—	717	657	226	39	9	3	46	66	1	8	4	344	388	444	832	100	376	9	6	365	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	3 teams	—	599	555	157	25	4	4	28	81	3	5	4	283	321	364	685	81	321	14	5	297	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	3 teams	—	599	543	172	28	5	3	40	53	3	5	4	317	367	403	770	87	343	9	7	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	3 teams	—	603	547	180	27	2	4	51	47	1	6	5	329	387	408	795	79	352	8	8	351	127	+18	-1	-8	+2	+17	2.9
2019	22	MLB	3 teams	—	603	538	182	30	2	4	60	44	1	6	5	338	406	424	829	86	360	7	10	373	143	+30	-1	-8	+2	+17	4.1
2020	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	339	118	+2	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.4
2020	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	344	121	+3	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	479	428	126	17	6	2	43	48	2	2	2	294	362	376	738	82	323	10	9	324	106	+3	-0	-3	+2	+14	1.6
2021	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	479	428	126	17	6	2	43	48	2	2	2	294	362	376	738	82	323	10	9	331	111	+6	-0	-3	+2	+14	1.8
2022	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	603	547	173	31	1	8	50	43	3	4	4	316	377	420	797	104	331	7	8	351	126	+18	-1	-6	-11	+17	1.8
2022	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	603	547	173	31	1	8	50	43	3	4	4	316	377	420	797	104	331	7	8	357	132	+22	-1	-6	-11	+17	2.1
2023	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	617	574	210	31	3	11	35	34	4	3	2	366	406	488	894	122	374	6	6	380	149	+34	-0	-10	+2	+17	4.4
2023	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	617	574	203	30	3	10	35	34	4	3	2	354	395	469	863	115	362	6	6	383	151	+36	-0	-10	+2	+17	4.6
2024	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	672	637	204	34	3	4	24	29	8	9	3	320	353	402	755	82	331	4	4	332	112	+9	+1	-11	-12	+19	0.6
2024	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	672	637	200	32	3	4	24	29	8	9	3	314	347	392	739	78	324	4	4	331	112	+9	+1	-11	-12	+19	0.5
2025	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	186	32	4	9	34	21	2	11	4	300	338	408	746	108	296	3	5	319	103	+2	+1	-10	-12	+19	-0.1
2025	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	181	30	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	292	331	392	723	100	289	3	5	315	99	-1	+1	-10	-12	+19	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	29	MLB	SF	—	402	361	119	21	7	4	24	16	3	8	0	330	376	460	836	130	330	4	6	348	125	+11	+2	+3	+1	+11	3.0
YTD	29	MLB	SF	—	402	361	119	21	7	4	24	16	3	8	0	330	376	460	836	130	330	4	6	359	133	+15	+2	+3	+1	+11	3.3
ROS	29	MLB	SF	100%	273	254	83	14	2	3	15	11	2	5	1	327	369	433	802	106	329	4	5	352	128	+9	+1	-1	-5	+8	1.2
ROS	29	MLB	SF	100%	273	254	81	13	2	3	15	11	2	5	1	319	362	421	783	102	323	4	5	342	120	+6	+1	-1	-5	+8	0.9
FULL	29	MLB	SF	—	675	615	200	34	9	7	39	27	5	13	1	325	370	444	814	119	327	4	6	345	123	+17	+2	+3	-3	+19	3.9
TOT	29	MLB	SF	—	675	615	202	35	9	7	39	27	5	13	1	328	373	449	822	120	331	4	6	350	126	+20	+2	+3	-3	+19	4.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	30	MLB	SF	100%	660	614	195	32	5	6	36	46	5	10	1	318	360	415	776	98	332	7	5	345	122	+16	+2	-3	-12	+19	2.2
2028	31	MLB	SF	100%	648	604	189	31	4	6	35	47	4	9	1	313	355	407	762	94	330	7	5	340	118	+13	+1	-4	-12	+18	1.8
2029	32	MLB	SF	100%	635	592	182	29	4	5	34	49	4	7	1	307	349	395	744	88	326	8	5	332	112	+9	+1	-5	-11	+18	1.2
2030	33	MLB	SF	100%	584	544	164	25	4	4	31	48	4	5	1	301	344	384	728	83	320	8	5	323	105	+4	+1	-5	-10	+17	0.5
2031	34	MLB	SF	100%	535	499	145	21	3	3	28	47	3	3	0	291	332	363	695	72	314	9	5	312	97	-2	+1	-6	-10	+15	-0.2
2032	35	MLB	SF	100%	478	447	125	16	3	2	25	46	3	2	0	280	322	342	664	63	306	10	5	300	88	-7	+0	-6	-9	+14	-0.8
2033	36	MLB	SF	100%	416	390	105	13	2	1	21	43	2	1	0	269	310	321	630	51	299	10	5	288	78	-10	+0	-7	-7	+12	-1.3
2027	30	MLB	SF	100%	660	614	191	31	5	6	36	46	5	10	1	311	354	407	761	96	327	7	5	334	114	+10	+2	-3	-12	+19	1.6
2028	31	MLB	SF	100%	648	604	186	30	4	6	35	47	4	9	1	308	350	401	751	93	324	7	5	330	110	+8	+1	-4	-12	+18	1.2
2029	32	MLB	SF	100%	635	592	179	28	4	5	34	49	4	7	1	302	344	389	733	86	320	8	5	322	105	+3	+1	-5	-11	+18	0.6
2030	33	MLB	SF	100%	584	544	161	24	4	4	31	48	4	5	1	296	339	377	715	81	315	8	5	314	98	-1	+1	-5	-10	+17	0.0
2031	34	MLB	SF	100%	535	499	143	20	3	3	28	47	3	3	0	287	328	357	685	70	308	9	5	303	90	-6	+1	-6	-10	+15	-0.6
2032	35	MLB	SF	100%	478	447	123	16	3	2	25	46	3	2	0	275	318	338	656	63	301	10	5	291	81	-10	+0	-6	-9	+14	-1.2
2033	36	MLB	SF	100%	416	390	104	12	3	1	21	43	2	1	0	267	308	321	628	54	294	10	5	280	72	-13	+0	-7	-7	+12	-1.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7762	7188	2196	343	46	66	455	552	47	73	22	306	351	394	744	88	322	7	6	329	110	+90	+6	-89	-104	+220	12.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	185	29	4	6	38	46	4	6	2	307	352	399	751	91	323	7	6	329	110	+8	+0	-7	-9	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	9731	9016	2772	440	55	74	550	779	58	110	47	307	351	393	744	86	328	8	6	327	109	+96	+3	-89	-135	+276	15.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	185	29	4	5	37	52	4	7	3	307	351	394	745	86	328	8	6	327	109	+6	+0	-6	-9	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2014	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	135	115	40	6	0	0	16	9	2	10	5	348	436	400	836	52	374	7	12	379	148	+7	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
2015	18	ROK	GCL Twins	—	233	207	64	15	1	0	19	10	4	8	8	309	378	391	770	82	323	4	8	346	123	+6	-2	—	—	+7	1.1
2015	18	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	48	42	12	0	1	0	2	7	1	2	1	286	333	333	667	48	333	15	4	285	77	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2016	19	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	514	475	165	31	3	3	31	51	1	3	3	347	389	444	833	97	382	10	6	368	140	+23	-1	—	—	+15	3.8
2016	19	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	203	182	61	8	6	0	15	15	0	5	1	335	386	445	831	110	361	7	7	359	133	+8	+1	—	—	+6	1.4
2018	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	195	178	53	6	0	2	13	16	1	2	0	298	349	365	714	67	315	8	7	320	103	+1	+0	—	—	+6	0.7
2018	21	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	258	228	73	14	3	1	19	28	2	2	3	320	378	421	799	101	356	11	7	347	123	+7	-1	—	—	+7	1.4
2018	21	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	146	137	46	8	2	0	8	9	0	1	1	336	372	423	796	88	357	6	5	354	129	+5	-0	—	—	+4	0.9
2019	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	366	326	109	20	1	4	36	29	1	2	2	334	402	439	841	104	355	8	10	376	146	+19	-0	-8	+2	+10	2.3
2019	22	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	73	66	23	4	0	0	6	2	0	1	0	348	403	409	812	61	354	3	8	363	136	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2019	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	164	146	50	6	1	0	18	13	0	3	3	342	415	397	812	55	376	8	11	371	142	+8	-1	—	—	+5	1.2
2020	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	344	121	+3	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.5
2021	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	479	428	126	17	6	2	43	48	2	2	2	294	362	376	738	82	323	10	9	331	111	+6	-0	-3	+2	+14	1.8
2022	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	603	547	173	31	1	8	50	43	3	4	4	316	377	420	797	104	331	7	8	357	132	+22	-1	-6	-11	+17	2.1
2023	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	617	574	203	30	3	10	35	34	4	3	2	354	395	469	863	115	362	6	6	383	151	+36	-0	-10	+2	+17	4.6
2024	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	672	637	200	32	3	4	24	29	8	9	3	314	347	392	739	78	324	4	4	331	112	+9	+1	-11	-12	+19	0.5
2025	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	181	30	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	292	331	392	723	100	289	3	5	315	99	-1	+1	-10	-12	+19	-0.3
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	3533	3244	1028	169	18	36	230	215	20	31	17	317	366	413	779	96	329	6	7	347	123	+94	-1	-51	-28	+100	11.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Nick Markakislast yr '20 career totals — 15 seasons, 9,321 PA	15	9,321	189	66	288	357	423	-100	-104	28.5	25.0
	/162	664	13	5	288	357	423	-7.1	-7.4	2.0	pk7: 21
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	8,566	74	87	309	349	400	-90	-106	28.5	24.3
	/162	664	6	7	309	349	400	-7.0	-8.2	2.2	pk7: 20
#2Michael Brantleylast yr '23 career totals — 14 seasons, 6,106 PA	14	6,106	129	124	298	356	440	-50	-55	24.8	23.4
	/162	664	14	13	298	356	440	-5.5	-6.0	2.7	pk7: 22
#3Shannon Stewartlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,663 PA	9	4,663	92	95	299	357	436	-41	-32	19.3	19.5
	/162	664	13	14	299	357	436	-5.8	-4.5	2.8	pk7: 20
#4Melky Cabreralast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,508 PA	14	7,508	144	101	285	334	417	-47	-102	16.3	16.6
	/162	664	13	9	285	334	417	-4.2	-9.0	1.4	pk7: 17
#5Sean Caseylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,612 PA	9	4,612	98	17	300	362	437	-63	-50	15.8	16.0
#5Sean Caseylast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,612 PA	/162	664	14	2	300	362	437	-9.1	-7.1	2.3	pk7: 16
#6Frank Catalanottolast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,688 PA	10	3,688	67	39	294	362	446	-36	-28	16.0	15.8
	/162	664	12	7	294	362	446	-6.5	-5.1	2.9	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Arraez (OGILVIE)	29	60	35	45	40	328/373/449	120	331	7	13	4%	6%	126	+4.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Skip Schumaker 2009 · MLB	29	59→64	42→45	48→50	51	285/335/392	107	314	9	8	13%	7%	108	+2.3	284/342/375	91	319	6	5	12%	8%	106	+2.2	282/343/360	78	319	4	3	12%	8%	98	+1.4
●Jon Jay 2014 · MLB	29	59→64	41→45	47→50	51	280/348/383	103	325	8	13	16%	8%	111	+2.5	272/343/360	88	326	6	8	17%	7%	104	+2.0	279/344/363	84	344	3	5	18%	6%	101	+1.4
✕Sergio Gastelum 2009 · AAA	30	59→64	40	46→50	50	282/347/377	95	313	6	8	12%	6%	110	+2.4	268/329/351	83	296	5	10	11%	6%	95	+1.4	267/328/342	75	296	4	9	11%	6%	90	+0.7
✕Ramon Rios 2017 · AAA	29	62→69	39→40	47→50	44	299/323/381	82	320	6	7	9%	3%	99	+1.7	271/299/359	88	294	8	4	10%	3%	83	+0.6	271/298/348	77	291	7	1	10%	2%	77	+0.1
✕Joe Panik 2020 · MLB	29	54→64	41→50	46→45	55	258/322/360	102	273	8	6	10%	8%	94	+1.3	233/305/331	98	262	8	6	14%	9%	80	+0.4	217/295/295	78	251	6	3	15%	9%	64	-0.3
●Oswaldo Morejon 2008 · AAA	29	56→66	41→45	46→50	51	267/326/373	106	289	7	10	10%	6%	99	+1.7	270/328/365	95	295	7	11	11%	6%	98	+1.6	301/347/407	107	319	8	7	8%	4%	114	+1.8
●Jeff Keppinger 2009 · MLB	29	60→69	40→45	43→40	54	288/335/383	96	296	7	4	6%	6%	105	+2.1	270/324/380	110	281	9	4	7%	7%	100	+1.7	289/336/393	104	298	9	2	6%	6%	106	+1.8
✕Heber Gomez 2007 · AAA	29	58→62	39→40	45→50	52	274/326/364	90	291	6	12	8%	6%	96	+1.5	264/318/350	86	287	6	11	10%	6%	90	+1.0	268/323/342	74	293	5	12	10%	6%	87	+0.5
●Alex Romero 2012 · MLB	28	55→65	41→45	48→50	49	264/316/369	105	293	7	8	13%	6%	94	+1.3	295/342/423	128	319	13	8	12%	5%	119	+3.1	320/366/402	82	339	7	7	7%	5%	121	+2.3
●Timo Perez 2004 · MLB	29	55→60	43→50	42→50	50	265/304/381	117	275	9	10	8%	5%	92	+1.2	242/287/356	114	256	11	8	11%	6%	79	+0.3	278/324/413	135	292	12	15	9%	5%	107	+1.8
✕Luis D. Figueroa 2006 · AAA	29	59→64	44→45	46→40	52	286/338/405	120	302	11	8	10%	7%	112	+2.6	298/354/422	124	312	10	5	8%	7%	124	+3.4	327/384/446	119	337	9	1	6%	7%	140	+1.7
✕Luis Borges 2010 · AAA	30	60→67	36→40	42→45	53	282/331/352	71	304	3	5	8%	7%	95	+1.4	283/321/359	76	303	4	5	8%	5%	92	+1.2	295/322/363	68	320	3	7	8%	3%	89	+0.8
✕Adam Frazier 2022 · MLB	30	60→67	43→50	45→50	53	289/349/412	124	317	9	8	12%	7%	119	+3.1	247/311/356	109	278	9	11	14%	8%	89	+0.9	239/301/355	116	275	12	11	17%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Abel Martinez 2007 · AAA	30	63	41→45	46→50	47	302/341/401	99	324	9	14	10%	4%	112	+2.6	271/312/364	93	294	8	15	10%	4%	91	+1.1	290/332/403	113	301	11	17	8%	4%	105	+1.2
✕Jesus Romo 2012 · AAA	28	59→64	38→40	45→50	52	282/338/362	81	326	5	11	15%	8%	101	+1.8	258/313/361	103	309	9	8	18%	7%	91	+1.1	258/314/349	91	313	7	0	19%	6%	85	+0.3
●Freddy Sanchez 2007 · MLB	29	65→70	42→45	43→40	50	311/353/432	122	330	7	4	8%	5%	125	+3.5	292/329/415	123	320	9	3	11%	5%	111	+2.5	284/320/401	118	313	9	2	12%	4%	100	+1.7
✕Howie Clark 2004 · MLB	30	57→58	42→40	44→40	50	272/331/381	109	298	8	7	12%	6%	103	+1.9	261/324/372	111	280	10	6	10%	8%	98	+1.6	265/306/366	102	280	8	4	9%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Hanser Alberto 2022 · MLB	29	56→62	43→45	48→50	43	271/299/393	122	292	9	8	11%	3%	93	+1.3	244/280/383	139	271	12	6	15%	4%	83	+0.6	250/265/377	127	287	8	0	16%	2%	72	-0.0
●David DeJesus 2009 · MLB	29	58→62	45→50	49→45	55	282/354/417	134	310	10	10	12%	8%	122	+3.3	282/350/424	142	316	12	6	14%	8%	123	+3.3	276/349/417	141	312	11	4	14%	9%	117	+2.5
●Hector Garanzuay 2010 · AAA	29	54→61	43→45	44→50	49	260/308/380	121	287	10	10	14%	6%	94	+1.3	229/282/337	108	265	9	8	17%	6%	72	-0.2	281/324/385	103	317	10	4	14%	5%	99	+1.1