Luis Arraez

2B Philadelphia Phillies

Age 30 L/R 5'10" / 186 lbs MLB HR +14% Svc 7.703 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLB40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	27	MLBSD	672	.314/.347/.392	4	9	112	0.1
2025	28	MLBSD	675	.292/.331/.392	8	11	103	-0.5
2026	29	MLBPHI	655	.310/.353/.419	6	10	109	3.0
2027PROJ	30	MLBPHI	561	.304/.341/.405	5	9	110	1.9
2028PROJ	31	MLBPHI	614	.295/.332/.389	5	5	103	1.3
2029PROJ	32	MLBPHI	614	.288/.324/.373	4	1	96	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service7.703First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

xwOBA54

Speed36

Avg EV13

Barrel%10

Bat Spd10

Form.296/.340/.382 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .303/.338/.403

CompsLuis Borges (age 30) · Adam Frazier (age 30) · Ramon Rios (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 92110vR 117

AVG/OBP/SLG.304 / .341 / .405

PA561

HR5

SB9

K%5

BB%5

BABIP309

ISO101

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

900.295

POWER

Barrel%

101.3

Avg EV

1386.3

Bat Spd

1062.1

SPEED

Sprint

3626.8

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%4%·4% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 5%

BB%6%▲7% over 98 PA (60d) · proj 5%

ISO.086▼.058 over 86 AB (60d) · proj .101

HR/BB0.6%·0.0% over 86 BBE (60d) · proj 1.0%

BABIP.304▼.256 over 86 BIP (60d) · proj .309

SLASH.296/.340/.382▼proj .303/.338/.403

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1457 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

442

1015

—

wRC+

114

▶▶R

wOBA

286

336

▶R

ISO

076

090

▶▶R

BABIP

275

321

▶R

6.6%

2.5%

▶▶R

BB%

3.4%

4.5%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 7.703 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+1.8	$14M	+$0.0M
Totals		$14M		$14M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	135	115	40	6	0	0	16	9	2	10	5	348	436	400	836	52	374	7	12	379	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	GCL Twins	—	233	207	64	15	1	0	19	10	4	8	8	309	378	391	770	82	323	4	8	346	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	48	42	12	0	1	0	2	7	1	2	1	286	333	333	667	48	333	15	4	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	514	475	165	31	3	3	31	51	1	3	3	347	389	444	833	97	382	10	6	368	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	203	182	61	8	6	0	15	15	0	5	1	335	386	445	831	110	361	7	7	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	195	178	53	6	0	2	13	16	1	2	0	298	349	365	714	67	315	8	7	320	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	Fort Myers Miracle	—	258	228	73	14	3	1	19	28	2	2	3	320	378	421	799	101	356	11	7	347	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	146	137	46	8	2	0	8	9	0	1	1	336	372	423	796	88	357	6	5	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	366	326	109	20	1	4	36	29	1	2	2	334	402	439	841	104	355	8	10	376	139	+17	-0	-8	+2	+8	1.9
2019	22	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	73	66	23	4	0	0	6	2	0	1	0	348	403	409	812	61	354	3	8	363	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	164	146	50	6	1	0	18	13	0	3	3	342	415	397	812	55	376	8	11	371	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	344	119	+3	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.4
2021	24	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	479	428	126	17	6	2	43	48	2	2	2	294	362	376	738	82	323	10	9	331	108	+5	-0	-3	+2	+10	1.4
2022	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	603	547	173	31	1	8	50	43	3	4	4	316	377	420	797	104	331	7	8	357	126	+19	-1	-6	-11	+13	1.4
2023	26	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	617	574	203	30	3	10	35	34	4	3	2	354	395	469	863	115	362	6	6	383	146	+33	-0	-10	+2	+13	4.0
2024	27	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	672	637	200	32	3	4	24	29	8	9	3	314	347	392	739	78	324	4	4	331	112	+10	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.1
2025	28	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	181	30	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	292	331	392	723	100	289	3	5	315	103	+2	+1	-10	-12	+15	-0.5
2026	29	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	—	655	596	185	33	7	6	34	28	5	10	1	310	353	419	772	109	311	4	5	335	109	+7	+2	+3	+2	+14	3.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4188	3840	1213	202	25	42	264	243	25	41	18	316	364	414	778	98	326	6	6	345	119	+97	+1	-48	-26	+91	11.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	135	120	30	4	0	0	11	11	2	10	5	250	323	283	607	33	268	8	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	GCL Twins	—	233	215	56	12	1	0	11	14	4	8	8	260	309	326	634	65	272	6	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	514	484	158	26	3	2	22	69	1	3	3	326	357	405	762	79	371	13	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	195	183	50	6	0	2	8	20	1	2	0	273	307	339	646	66	286	10	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	Fort Myers Miracle	—	258	232	74	14	3	1	15	39	2	2	3	319	365	418	784	99	357	15	6	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	366	327	109	20	1	4	35	29	1	2	2	333	399	437	837	104	355	8	10	374	139	+17	-0	-8	+2	+8	1.9
2019	22	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	73	68	23	3	0	0	4	2	0	1	0	338	375	382	757	44	341	3	5	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	164	152	49	5	1	0	12	15	0	3	3	322	372	368	740	46	358	9	7	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	343	119	+3	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	479	430	126	17	6	2	41	48	2	2	2	293	357	374	732	81	323	10	9	328	108	+5	-0	-3	+2	+10	1.4
2022	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	603	549	173	31	1	8	48	43	3	4	4	315	373	419	792	104	331	7	8	355	126	+19	-1	-6	-11	+13	1.4
2023	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	617	584	209	33	3	11	25	34	4	3	2	358	388	481	869	123	362	6	4	383	146	+33	-0	-10	+2	+13	4.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	672	640	203	34	3	4	21	29	8	9	3	317	347	398	745	81	324	4	3	334	112	+10	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.1
2025	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	184	32	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	297	335	400	735	103	289	3	5	320	103	+2	+1	-10	-12	+15	-0.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	655	600	185	34	7	6	30	28	5	10	1	308	346	418	765	110	311	4	5	330	109	+7	+2	+3	+2	+14	3.0
2014	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	135	120	30	4	0	0	11	11	2	10	5	250	323	283	607	33	273	8	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	135	115	40	6	0	0	16	9	2	10	5	348	436	400	836	52	374	7	12	379	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	281	256	67	14	1	0	14	17	5	10	9	262	313	324	637	62	278	6	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	281	249	76	15	2	0	21	17	5	10	9	305	371	382	752	76	325	6	7	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	717	672	221	37	4	3	31	97	1	8	4	329	359	409	769	80	378	14	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	717	657	226	39	9	3	46	66	1	8	4	344	388	444	832	100	376	9	6	365	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	599	553	163	27	4	3	30	79	3	5	4	295	334	374	709	80	335	13	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	599	543	172	28	5	3	40	53	3	5	4	317	367	403	770	87	343	9	7	340	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	603	547	180	28	2	4	51	47	1	6	5	329	387	410	797	80	352	8	8	357	128	+20	-1	-8	+2	+13	2.7
2019	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	603	538	182	30	2	4	60	44	1	6	5	338	406	424	829	86	360	7	10	373	128	+20	-1	-8	+2	+13	2.7
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	343	119	+3	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.4
2020	23	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	344	119	+3	+0	-2	+0	+3	0.4
2021	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	479	430	126	17	6	2	41	48	2	2	2	293	357	374	732	81	321	10	9	328	108	+5	-0	-3	+2	+10	1.4
2021	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	479	428	126	17	6	2	43	48	2	2	2	294	362	376	738	82	323	10	9	331	108	+5	-0	-3	+2	+10	1.4
2022	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	603	549	173	31	1	8	48	43	3	4	4	315	373	419	792	104	329	7	8	355	126	+19	-1	-6	-11	+13	1.4
2022	25	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	—	603	547	173	31	1	8	50	43	3	4	4	316	377	420	797	104	331	7	8	357	126	+19	-1	-6	-11	+13	1.4
2023	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	617	584	209	33	3	11	25	34	4	3	2	358	388	481	869	123	365	6	4	383	146	+33	-0	-10	+2	+13	4.0
2023	26	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	—	617	574	203	30	3	10	35	34	4	3	2	354	395	469	863	115	362	6	6	383	146	+33	-0	-10	+2	+13	4.0
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	672	640	203	34	3	4	21	29	8	9	3	317	347	398	745	81	327	4	3	334	112	+10	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.1
2024	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	672	637	200	32	3	4	24	29	8	9	3	314	347	392	739	78	324	4	4	331	112	+10	+1	-11	-12	+15	0.1
2025	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	184	32	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	297	335	400	735	103	294	3	5	320	103	+2	+1	-10	-12	+15	-0.5
2025	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	675	620	181	30	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	292	331	392	723	100	289	3	5	315	103	+2	+1	-10	-12	+15	-0.5
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	655	600	185	34	7	6	30	28	5	10	1	308	346	418	765	110	309	4	5	330	109	+7	+2	+3	+2	+14	3.0
2026	29	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	—	655	596	185	33	7	6	34	28	5	10	1	310	353	419	772	109	311	4	5	335	109	+7	+2	+3	+2	+14	3.0
2014	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	135	121	30	4	0	0	11	11	2	10	5	248	323	281	604	33	268	8	8	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	281	260	67	14	1	0	14	17	5	10	9	258	313	319	632	62	272	6	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	717	679	221	37	4	3	31	97	1	8	4	325	359	405	764	80	371	14	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	599	561	163	27	4	3	30	79	3	5	4	291	334	369	703	78	326	13	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	603	546	180	28	2	4	51	47	1	6	5	330	387	410	798	81	354	8	8	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	23	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	121	112	36	9	0	0	8	11	0	0	0	321	367	402	768	80	353	9	7	343	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	479	433	126	17	6	2	41	48	2	2	2	291	357	372	729	81	323	10	9	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	603	547	173	31	1	8	48	43	3	4	4	316	373	420	794	104	331	7	8	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	617	583	209	33	3	11	25	34	4	3	2	358	388	482	870	123	362	6	4	383	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	672	638	203	34	3	4	21	29	8	9	3	318	347	400	746	82	324	4	3	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	675	634	184	32	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	290	335	391	727	101	289	3	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	655	615	185	34	7	6	30	28	5	10	1	301	346	408	755	107	311	4	5	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	672	638	203	34	3	4	21	29	8	9	3	318	347	400	746	82	324	4	3	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	675	634	184	32	4	8	34	21	2	11	4	290	335	391	727	101	289	3	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	—	655	615	185	34	7	6	30	28	5	10	1	301	346	408	755	107	311	4	5	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	616	578	174	31	5	5	29	28	4	9	3	303	341	403	744	101	309	5	5	331	110	+7	+1	-3	+2	+13	1.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	561	526	160	28	5	5	26	26	4	9	3	304	341	405	746	101	309	5	5	331	110	+7	+1	-3	+2	+12	1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	614	577	170	30	5	5	28	43	4	5	2	294	332	388	720	94	309	7	5	320	103	+2	+0	-6	+2	+13	1.3
2029	32	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	614	578	166	28	5	4	27	46	4	1	2	287	323	372	696	85	304	7	4	310	96	-3	-1	-6	+2	+13	0.6
2030	33	MLB MLE	PHI	100%	482	455	127	21	4	2	21	39	3	0	1	278	314	354	668	75	298	8	4	299	88	-7	-0	-6	+2	+10	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	614	577	170	29	5	5	28	43	4	5	2	295	332	389	721	94	309	7	5	321	103	+2	+0	-6	+2	+13	1.3
2029	32	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	614	578	167	28	5	4	27	46	4	1	2	288	324	373	697	86	304	7	4	311	96	-3	-1	-6	+2	+13	0.6
2030	33	MLB CTX	PHI	100%	482	455	127	20	4	2	21	39	3	0	1	279	314	354	668	76	298	8	4	299	88	-7	-0	-6	+2	+10	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5898	5450	1677	279	39	53	340	371	36	47	23	308	352	402	755	95	320	6	6	335	109	+90	+0	-66	-20	+128	13.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	185	31	4	6	37	41	4	5	3	308	352	403	755	95	320	6	6	335	109	+10	+0	-7	-2	+14	1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	8428	7819	2399	407	54	65	446	619	51	93	51	307	348	398	746	91	324	7	5	329	109	+96	+1	-69	-18	+140	15.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	184	31	4	5	34	48	4	7	4	305	346	395	741	90	323	7	5	329	109	+10	+0	-7	-2	+14	1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 164 PAwOBA .362 → .329 (−33)K% 7.9% → 9.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.93%	÷1.027	×1.220	—	—	9.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.98%	÷1.028	×0.680	—	×1.042	7.57%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	32.33%	÷0.970	×0.920	×0.983	×1.042	31.41%
Doubles /BIP	4.51%	÷1.160	×0.910	×0.983	×1.042	3.63%
Triples /BIP	0.75%	÷0.900	×0.880	×0.983	×1.042	0.75%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 105, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .362 → .329; ISO .055 → .048; BABIP .376 → .358. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 73 PAwOBA .359 → .337 (−21)K% 2.7% → 3.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	2.74%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	3.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.22%	÷1.095	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.69%	÷0.982	×0.930	—	×1.050	29.52%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.063	×0.830	—	×1.050	5.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.958	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .359 → .337; ISO .061 → .052; BABIP .354 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Fort Myers Miracle · 258 PAwOBA .342 → .332 (−10)K% 10.9% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.85%	÷1.011	×1.420	—	—	15.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.36%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.027	5.67%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	0.74%
Singles /BIP	27.50%	÷0.983	×0.920	×1.050	×1.027	27.75%
Doubles /BIP	7.00%	÷1.036	×0.960	×1.050	×1.027	6.99%
Triples /BIP	1.50%	÷0.949	×0.810	×1.050	×1.027	1.38%
Home runs /BIP	0.50%	÷1.059	×0.880	—	×1.027	0.43%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 97, 2B 107, 3B 90, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .342 → .332; ISO .101 → .098; BABIP .356 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 195 PAwOBA .313 → .280 (−33)K% 8.2% → 10.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.21%	÷0.961	×1.220	—	—	10.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.15%	÷1.078	×0.680	—	×1.050	4.08%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.45%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷1.072	×0.920	×1.002	×1.050	25.07%
Doubles /BIP	3.70%	÷0.979	×0.910	×1.002	×1.050	3.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.880	×1.002	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.23%	÷0.975	×0.800	—	×1.050	1.06%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 114, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .313 → .280; ISO .067 → .063; BABIP .315 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 ACedar Rapids Kernels · 514 PAwOBA .360 → .332 (−28)K% 9.9% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.92%	÷0.996	×1.360	—	—	13.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.03%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.045	4.31%
HBP% /PA	0.19%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.16%
Singles /BIP	30.19%	÷1.002	×0.920	×1.042	×1.045	30.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.31%	÷1.055	×0.830	×1.042	×1.045	6.27%
Triples /BIP	0.71%	÷0.951	×0.910	×1.042	×1.045	0.74%
Home runs /BIP	0.71%	÷1.232	×0.800	—	×1.045	0.48%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 100, 2B 111, 3B 90, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .360 → .332; ISO .097 → .081; BABIP .382 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 ROKGCL Twins · 233 PAwOBA .337 → .277 (−60)K% 4.3% → 6.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	4.29%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	6.18%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.73%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.90%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.26%
Singles /BIP	24.37%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.036	×1.022	21.16%
Doubles /BIP	7.61%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.036	×1.022	5.81%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.036	×1.022	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.

Result: wOBA .337 → .277; ISO .082 → .065; BABIP .323 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 DSLDSL Twins · 135 PAwOBA .372 → .275 (−97)K% 6.7% → 8.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.67%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	8.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.85%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.48%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.06%
Singles /BIP	32.08%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	23.42%
Doubles /BIP	5.66%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	3.65%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .372 → .275; ISO .052 → .035; BABIP .374 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Younglast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 8,610 PA	13.0	8,610	185	90	300	346	441	+32	-56	43.4	38.9
/162	664	14	7	+2.5	-4.3	3.3	pk7: 34
#2Bill Madlock'73-'87 * career totals — 15 seasons, 7,372 PA	11.1	7,372	163	174	299*	362*	475*	+13	-79	38.3	32.9
/162	664	15	16	+1.2	-7.1	3.4	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.7	6,459	58	56	307	347	402	+17	-79	28.1	25.2
/162	664	6	6	+1.7	-8.2	2.9	pk7: 22
#3Edgardo Alfonzo'95-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,108 PA	9.2	6,108	146	53	273*	342*	413*	+22	-38	23.8	24.6
/162	664	16	6	+2.4	-4.1	2.6	pk7: 25
#4Jose Vidro'97-'08 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,708 PA	8.6	5,708	128	23	286*	345*	430*	-9	-27	22.0	22.9
/162	664	15	3	-1.0	-3.1	2.6	pk7: 24
#5Daniel Murphylast yr '20 career totals — 12 seasons, 5,755 PA	8.7	5,755	138	68	296	341	455	-16	-66	23.5	22.7
/162	664	16	8	-1.8	-7.7	2.7	pk7: 22
#6Garrett Atkinslast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,240 PA	4.9	3,240	98	8	284	349	448	+8	-30	16.3	16.3
/162	664	20	2	+1.7	-6.1	3.3	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Arraez (OGILVIE)	30	—	—	—	—	300/338/400	100	309	5	9	5%	5%	110	+1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Borges 2010 · AAA	30	60→66	36→40	42→45	53	279/329/348	69	301	2	5	8%	7%	94	+0.9	276/314/348	72	297	3	5	8%	5%	88	+0.4	283/316/344	62	301	2	4	7%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Adam Frazier 2022 · MLB	30	59→68	43→50	45→50	52	286/345/410	123	314	9	8	12%	7%	115	+2.4	246/309/356	110	276	9	11	14%	7%	89	+0.5	238/299/355	118	272	12	11	17%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Ramon Rios 2017 · AAA	29	63→68	38→40	47→50	45	300/324/377	77	321	5	7	9%	3%	99	+1.2	267/297/350	83	289	7	4	10%	3%	82	+0.0	263/291/335	72	282	6	1	9%	2%	74	-0.4
●Jeff Keppinger 2009 · MLB	29	60→70	40→45	43→40	53	288/333/383	96	296	7	4	6%	6%	104	+1.6	269/320/378	109	280	9	4	7%	7%	98	+1.2	288/335/391	103	296	9	2	6%	6%	107	+1.5
✕Skip Schumaker 2010 · MLB	30	61→64	41→45	45→50	54	294/349/398	103	325	7	5	12%	8%	113	+2.3	272/329/358	86	309	6	5	13%	8%	97	+1.1	269/328/343	74	315	3	2	15%	7%	94	+0.5
●Freddy Sanchez 2007 · MLB	29	64→70	42→45	43→40	49	309/346/430	121	327	7	4	8%	5%	120	+2.8	290/325/413	123	317	9	3	11%	4%	108	+1.9	282/316/400	117	311	9	2	12%	4%	102	+1.4
✕Abel Martinez 2007 · AAA	30	62	40→45	46→50	47	297/337/389	92	319	7	14	10%	4%	107	+1.8	262/303/348	86	285	7	15	10%	4%	84	+0.2	272/314/373	101	284	9	17	8%	4%	90	+0.4
●Jason Kendall 2004 · MLB	30	62→67	39→45	43→50	55	297/365/387	90	308	6	10	6%	7%	117	+2.6	296/369/366	70	316	3	9	7%	8%	114	+2.3	291/367/346	55	313	1	9	7%	8%	109	+2.2
✕Sergio Gastelum 2009 · AAA	30	58→63	39→40	46→50	50	276/342/365	89	307	6	8	12%	6%	103	+1.6	261/324/339	78	289	4	10	11%	6%	91	+0.7	259/322/327	68	287	3	9	10%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Sean Burroughs 2012 · MLB	31	55→63	43→40	44→45	46	268/301/381	114	296	9	7	13%	5%	92	+0.7	228/274/314	86	261	5	7	14%	6%	66	-1.1	208/256/271	62	241	1	4	13%	5%	46	-1.0
●Oscar Robles 2006 · MLB	30	57→67	43→40	31→50	56	276/337/386	110	289	10	4	9%	8%	107	+1.8	242/298/315	73	264	5	3	10%	7%	75	-0.5	292/342/378	86	308	6	9	7%	7%	106	+1.4
✕Luis D. Figueroa 2007 · AAA	30	60→63	42→45	46→40	54	286/347/401	115	303	9	7	9%	8%	114	+2.3	287/342/400	113	300	9	5	8%	7%	111	+2.1	317/366/420	103	325	7	0	5%	6%	122	+1.1
✕Jon Jay 2015 · MLB	30	59→63	39→45	48→50	48	281/347/371	90	330	6	11	16%	6%	107	+1.8	267/332/354	87	324	5	6	18%	6%	97	+1.1	276/340/357	80	340	3	5	18%	6%	102	+1.1
✕Jesus Romo 2012 · AAA	28	60→66	38→40	45→50	53	285/343/363	78	326	5	11	14%	8%	103	+1.5	259/318/357	98	309	8	8	18%	7%	93	+0.8	257/314/337	80	311	5	0	18%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Edwards Guzman 2008 · AAA	31	58→62	43→45	41→40	52	282/326/389	108	290	11	4	8%	6%	103	+1.5	257/315/361	104	268	10	6	8%	7%	93	+0.8	268/333/354	86	267	9	2	4%	8%	97	+0.5
✕Kevin Frandsen 2013 · MLB	31	57→65	39→45	44→50	44	271/309/363	92	293	4	7	10%	3%	91	+0.6	252/298/338	86	273	6	5	10%	4%	81	-0.1	240/290/308	69	258	5	3	9%	4%	71	-0.4
●Oswaldo Morejon 2009 · AAA	30	55→65	39→40	45→50	49	260/312/353	93	285	6	7	11%	6%	89	+0.5	260/321/344	84	283	6	12	10%	7%	91	+0.7	284/328/376	92	304	6	7	8%	4%	98	+0.8
●Fernando Viña 2001 · MLB	32	60→63	41→40	46→50	54	286/365/392	106	300	6	11	7%	7%	119	+2.7	281/341/383	102	293	6	13	6%	5%	107	+1.9	276/334/373	97	288	5	14	6%	5%	103	+1.4
✕Miguel Rojas 2018 · MLB	29	57→61	39→45	42→50	50	268/319/363	95	297	5	5	12%	6%	94	+0.9	271/320/381	110	299	10	9	13%	6%	99	+1.3	284/339/412	128	316	9	13	13%	7%	114	+1.6
✕Jesus Merchan 2011 · AAA	30	56→64	38→45	42→50	45	265/305/350	85	299	4	4	13%	4%	86	+0.3	250/287/326	76	282	5	5	13%	4%	74	-0.6	254/287/313	59	287	3	2	12%	3%	67	-0.4

Luis Arraez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps