Jon Jay

PosCF

B/TL/L

Born1985-03-15

Age (2027)42

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	34	AAACWS	55	.358/.382/.396	0	1	67	—	.278/.291/.315
2019	34	MLBCWS	182	.267/.312/.315	0	0	74	-1.1
2020	35	MLBARI	57	.160/.222/.240	1	0	24	-0.5
2021	36	AAALAA	73	.362/.389/.464	1	2	99	—	.314/.333/.400
2022	37	No MLB games played
2023	38	No MLB games played
2024	39	No MLB games played
2025	40	No MLB games played
2026	41	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.6

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

xwOBA18

Speed17

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	21	A	Swing of the Quad Cities	—	268	234	80	13	3	3	28	27	3	9	4	342	419	462	880	120	374	10	10	391	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	117	102	24	4	2	2	11	19	4	4	1	235	333	373	706	137	272	16	9	322	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	134	126	36	8	0	2	5	25	2	5	2	286	323	397	720	111	340	19	4	320	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	64	58	20	4	1	1	6	10	0	0	1	345	406	500	906	155	404	16	9	401	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	427	372	114	17	3	11	39	46	6	10	7	306	381	457	838	151	324	11	9	366	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	564	505	142	23	2	10	34	64	12	21	8	281	341	394	735	113	303	11	6	324	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	323	287	86	19	2	4	24	50	3	2	4	300	360	422	781	122	350	15	7	341	117	+6	-1	-5	-6	+7	0.1
2010	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	191	165	53	16	0	4	17	22	4	13	0	321	398	491	889	170	348	12	9	385	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	503	455	135	24	2	10	28	81	7	6	7	297	347	424	771	127	340	16	6	336	114	+8	-2	-1	+2	+11	1.9
2012	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	502	443	135	22	4	4	34	71	15	19	7	305	374	400	774	95	355	14	7	344	116	+10	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.3
2013	28	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	628	548	151	27	2	7	52	103	14	10	5	276	353	370	724	95	325	16	8	323	100	+0	+0	-5	+2	+14	1.1
2014	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	468	413	125	16	3	3	28	78	20	6	3	303	375	378	753	75	363	17	6	340	113	+7	+0	-3	+2	+10	1.6
2015	30	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	245	210	44	5	1	1	19	36	11	0	2	210	308	257	565	48	246	15	8	265	56	-13	-1	+3	+1	+5	-0.5
2016	31	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	374	347	101	26	1	2	19	78	6	2	0	291	338	389	727	98	371	21	5	326	112	+5	+0	-6	+1	+8	0.9
2017	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	433	379	112	18	3	2	37	80	12	6	2	296	376	375	751	79	368	18	9	340	111	+6	+0	-5	+2	+9	1.2
2018	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	586	527	141	19	7	3	33	95	18	4	3	268	332	347	679	80	319	16	6	306	88	-9	-0	-7	-6	+13	-1.0
2019	34	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	182	165	44	8	0	0	8	30	3	0	0	267	312	315	628	48	324	16	4	278	74	-6	+0	-6	-3	+4	-1.1
2019	34	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	55	53	19	2	0	0	2	10	0	1	0	358	382	396	778	38	442	18	4	352	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	57	50	8	1	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	160	222	240	462	80	175	21	5	204	24	-5	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.5
2021	36	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	69	25	4	0	1	2	9	1	2	0	362	389	464	853	101	400	12	3	376	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	4301	3824	1082	185	25	37	285	714	110	55	33	283	350	373	723	90	337	17	7	323	105	+25	-2	-37	-4	+93	7.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	21	A MLE	Swing of the Quad Cities	—	268	245	75	11	3	2	17	37	3	9	4	306	358	400	758	94	349	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	117	105	24	4	2	2	8	23	4	4	1	229	308	362	670	133	263	20	7	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	134	127	32	7	0	2	4	36	2	5	2	252	286	354	640	102	329	27	3	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	64	60	18	3	1	1	4	13	0	0	1	300	344	433	777	133	371	20	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	427	385	113	16	3	9	26	56	6	10	7	294	348	421	769	127	314	13	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	564	516	135	20	2	8	23	82	12	21	8	262	309	355	663	93	286	15	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	323	287	85	18	2	4	24	50	3	2	4	296	357	415	771	118	350	15	7	341	117	+6	-1	-5	-6	+7	0.1
2010	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	191	169	51	15	0	3	13	28	4	13	0	302	366	444	809	142	331	15	7	345	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	503	456	135	23	2	11	27	81	7	6	7	296	345	428	773	132	340	16	5	336	114	+8	-2	-1	+2	+11	1.9
2012	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	502	446	134	21	4	4	31	71	15	19	7	300	366	392	758	92	355	14	6	340	116	+10	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.3
2013	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	628	555	151	26	2	8	45	103	14	10	5	272	342	369	711	97	325	16	7	316	100	+0	+0	-5	+2	+14	1.1
2014	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	468	416	124	15	3	3	25	78	20	6	3	298	367	370	737	72	363	17	5	336	113	+7	+0	-3	+2	+10	1.6
2015	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	245	215	44	5	1	1	14	36	11	0	2	205	287	251	539	47	246	15	6	251	56	-13	-1	+3	+1	+5	-0.5
2016	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	374	348	104	28	1	2	19	78	6	2	0	299	346	402	748	103	371	21	5	334	112	+5	+0	-6	+1	+8	0.9
2017	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	433	382	111	17	3	2	34	80	12	6	2	291	367	366	733	76	368	18	8	332	111	+6	+0	-5	+2	+9	1.2
2018	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	586	527	137	17	6	3	33	95	18	4	3	260	325	332	657	72	319	16	6	298	88	-9	-0	-7	-6	+13	-1.0
2019	34	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	182	165	44	8	0	0	8	30	3	0	0	267	312	315	628	48	324	16	4	278	74	-6	+0	-6	-3	+4	-1.1
2019	34	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	55	54	15	2	0	0	1	12	0	1	0	278	291	315	606	37	365	22	2	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	57	50	8	1	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	160	222	240	462	80	175	21	5	203	24	-5	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.5
2021	36	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	70	22	3	0	1	1	11	1	2	0	314	333	400	733	86	349	15	1	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A MLE	Swing of the Quad Cities	—	268	245	75	11	3	2	17	37	3	9	4	306	358	400	758	94	351	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A RAW	Swing of the Quad Cities	—	268	234	80	13	3	3	28	27	3	9	4	342	419	462	880	120	374	10	10	391	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	251	232	55	11	2	3	12	59	6	9	3	237	292	341	633	103	304	24	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	251	228	60	12	2	4	16	44	6	9	3	263	328	386	714	123	309	18	6	321	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	491	444	131	19	4	10	31	69	6	10	8	295	349	423	773	128	329	14	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	491	430	134	21	4	12	45	56	6	10	8	312	385	463	847	151	334	11	9	371	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	564	516	135	20	2	8	23	82	12	21	8	262	309	355	663	93	295	15	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	Memphis Redbirds	—	564	505	142	23	2	10	34	64	12	21	8	281	341	394	735	113	303	11	6	324	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	514	456	136	33	2	7	37	78	7	15	4	298	360	425	785	127	345	15	7	342	118	+11	+1	-5	-6	+11	1.3
2010	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	514	452	139	35	2	8	41	72	7	15	4	308	374	447	821	139	349	14	8	357	118	+11	+1	-5	-6	+11	1.3
2011	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	503	456	135	23	2	11	27	81	7	6	7	296	345	428	773	132	337	16	5	336	114	+8	-2	-1	+2	+11	1.9
2011	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	503	455	135	24	2	10	28	81	7	6	7	297	347	424	771	127	340	16	6	336	114	+8	-2	-1	+2	+11	1.9
2012	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	502	446	134	21	4	4	31	71	15	19	7	300	366	392	758	92	349	14	6	340	116	+10	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.3
2012	27	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	502	443	135	22	4	4	34	71	15	19	7	305	374	400	774	95	355	14	7	344	116	+10	+1	-1	+2	+11	2.3
2013	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	628	555	151	26	2	8	45	103	14	10	5	272	342	369	711	97	318	16	7	316	100	+0	+0	-5	+2	+14	1.1
2013	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	628	548	151	27	2	7	52	103	14	10	5	276	353	370	724	95	325	16	8	323	100	+0	+0	-5	+2	+14	1.1
2014	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	468	416	124	15	3	3	25	78	20	6	3	298	367	370	737	72	357	17	5	336	113	+7	+0	-3	+2	+10	1.6
2014	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	468	413	125	16	3	3	28	78	20	6	3	303	375	378	753	75	363	17	6	340	113	+7	+0	-3	+2	+10	1.6
2015	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	245	215	44	5	1	1	14	36	11	0	2	205	287	251	539	47	239	15	6	251	56	-13	-1	+3	+1	+5	-0.5
2015	30	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	245	210	44	5	1	1	19	36	11	0	2	210	308	257	565	48	246	15	8	265	56	-13	-1	+3	+1	+5	-0.5
2016	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	374	348	104	28	1	2	19	78	6	2	0	299	346	402	748	103	381	21	5	334	112	+5	+0	-6	+1	+8	0.9
2016	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	—	374	347	101	26	1	2	19	78	6	2	0	291	338	389	727	98	371	21	5	326	112	+5	+0	-6	+1	+8	0.9
2017	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	433	382	111	17	3	2	34	80	12	6	2	291	367	366	733	76	361	18	8	332	111	+6	+0	-5	+2	+9	1.2
2017	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	433	379	112	18	3	2	37	80	12	6	2	296	376	375	751	79	368	18	9	340	111	+6	+0	-5	+2	+9	1.2
2018	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	586	527	137	17	6	3	33	95	18	4	3	260	325	332	657	72	310	16	6	298	88	-9	-0	-7	-6	+13	-1.0
2018	33	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	586	527	141	19	7	3	33	95	18	4	3	268	332	347	679	80	319	16	6	306	88	-9	-0	-7	-6	+13	-1.0
2019	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	237	219	59	10	0	0	9	42	3	1	0	269	307	315	622	46	331	18	4	275	72	-8	+0	-6	-3	+5	-1.2
2019	34	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	237	218	63	10	0	0	10	40	3	1	0	289	329	335	664	46	352	17	4	295	72	-8	+0	-6	-3	+5	-1.2
2020	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	57	50	8	1	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	160	222	240	462	80	175	21	5	203	24	-5	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.5
2020	35	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	57	50	8	1	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	160	222	240	462	80	175	21	5	204	24	-5	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.5
2021	36	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	70	22	3	0	1	1	11	1	2	0	314	333	400	733	86	356	15	1	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA RAW	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	69	25	4	0	1	2	9	1	2	0	362	389	464	853	101	400	12	3	376	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	A MLE	Swing of the Quad Cities	—	268	246	75	11	3	2	17	37	3	9	4	305	358	398	757	93	349	14	6	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	251	231	55	11	2	3	12	59	6	9	3	238	292	342	634	104	298	24	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	491	451	131	19	4	10	31	69	6	10	8	290	349	417	766	126	321	14	6	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	564	524	135	20	2	8	23	82	12	21	8	258	309	349	658	92	286	15	4	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	514	465	136	33	2	7	37	78	7	15	4	292	360	417	777	125	343	15	7	342	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	503	464	135	23	2	11	27	81	7	6	7	291	345	420	765	129	340	16	5	336	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	502	451	134	21	4	4	31	71	15	19	7	297	366	388	754	91	355	14	6	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	628	564	151	26	2	8	45	103	14	10	5	268	342	363	705	96	325	16	7	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	468	420	124	15	3	3	25	78	20	6	3	295	367	367	733	71	363	17	5	336	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	245	218	44	5	1	1	14	36	11	0	2	202	287	248	535	46	246	15	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	—	374	346	104	28	1	2	19	78	6	2	0	301	346	405	750	104	371	21	5	334	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	433	384	111	17	3	2	34	80	12	6	2	289	367	365	731	76	368	18	8	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	586	530	137	17	6	3	33	95	18	4	3	258	325	330	655	72	319	16	6	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	237	223	59	10	0	0	9	42	3	1	0	265	307	309	617	45	333	18	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	57	53	8	1	0	1	3	12	1	0	0	151	222	226	449	75	175	21	5	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	73	71	22	3	0	1	1	11	1	2	0	310	333	394	728	85	349	15	1	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4301	3824	1082	185	25	37	285	714	110	55	33	283	350	373	723	90	337	17	7	323	101	+25	-2	-37	-4	+93	7.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	164	28	4	6	43	108	17	8	5	284	351	377	728	93	338	17	7	323	101	+4	-0	-6	-1	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6194	5577	1561	260	35	66	361	1012	142	120	56	280	339	375	714	95	329	16	6	317	101	+25	-2	-37	-4	+93	7.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	164	27	4	7	38	106	15	13	6	280	340	376	716	96	330	16	6	317	101	+4	-0	-6	-1	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASalt Lake Bees · 73 PAwOBA .371 → .314 (−56)K% 12.3% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.33%	÷0.982	×1.200	—	—	15.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.74%	÷1.090	×0.690	—	×0.940	1.63%
HBP% /PA	1.37%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.21%
Singles /BIP	33.33%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.050	×0.940	29.65%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.002	×0.830	×1.050	×0.940	5.45%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.050	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.67%	÷0.907	×0.700	—	×0.940	1.21%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 106, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 96, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 36 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .371 → .314; ISO .101 → .079; BABIP .400 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 55 PAwOBA .342 → .267 (−75)K% 18.2% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.18%	÷0.962	×1.200	—	—	22.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.64%	÷1.077	×0.690	—	×0.940	2.19%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.00%
Singles /BIP	39.53%	÷1.061	×0.930	—	×0.940	32.58%
Doubles /BIP	4.65%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	×0.940	3.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.212	×0.840	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 112, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .342 → .267; ISO .038 → .031; BABIP .442 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 191 PAwOBA .379 → .345 (−34)K% 11.5% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.52%	÷0.995	×1.290	—	—	14.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.90%	÷0.958	×0.710	—	×1.033	6.81%
HBP% /PA	2.09%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	2.12%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷0.988	×0.900	×1.034	×1.033	22.45%
Doubles /BIP	11.19%	÷0.928	×0.810	×1.034	×1.033	10.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.034	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.80%	÷1.163	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.94%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .379 → .345; ISO .170 → .143; BABIP .348 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 564 PAwOBA .317 → .291 (−26)K% 11.3% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.35%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	14.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.50%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.048	4.09%
HBP% /PA	2.13%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	2.19%
Singles /BIP	24.26%	÷1.000	×0.900	×1.026	×1.048	23.48%
Doubles /BIP	5.22%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.026	×1.048	4.54%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.026	×1.048	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	2.27%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.048	1.85%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .317 → .291; ISO .113 → .096; BABIP .303 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AASpringfield Cardinals · 427 PAwOBA .357 → .334 (−24)K% 10.8% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.77%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	13.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.67%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.23%
HBP% /PA	1.41%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	1.26%
Singles /BIP	25.46%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.045	×1.027	25.15%
Doubles /BIP	5.21%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.045	×1.027	4.70%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.045	×1.027	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	3.37%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.77%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .357 → .334; ISO .151 → .136; BABIP .324 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 64 PAwOBA .391 → .334 (−56)K% 15.6% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.62%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	20.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.38%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.99%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	29.17%	÷1.000	×0.900	—	×1.050	27.56%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.050	7.09%
Triples /BIP	2.08%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×1.050	1.77%
Home runs /BIP	2.08%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.71%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .391 → .334; ISO .155 → .127; BABIP .404 → .371. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 134 PAwOBA .314 → .275 (−38)K% 18.7% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.66%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.73%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×1.012	2.83%
HBP% /PA	1.49%	—	×0.930	—	×1.012	1.40%
Singles /BIP	25.74%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.032	×1.012	24.73%
Doubles /BIP	7.92%	÷1.000	×0.960	×1.032	×1.012	7.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	×1.032	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.98%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.76%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .314 → .275; ISO .111 → .097; BABIP .340 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 AASpringfield Cardinals · 117 PAwOBA .314 → .280 (−34)K% 16.2% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.24%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.40%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.042	6.86%
HBP% /PA	3.42%	—	×0.870	—	×1.042	3.10%
Singles /BIP	19.28%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.028	×1.042	18.99%
Doubles /BIP	4.82%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.028	×1.042	4.34%
Triples /BIP	2.41%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.028	×1.042	2.43%
Home runs /BIP	2.41%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	2.01%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.

Result: wOBA .314 → .280; ISO .137 → .123; BABIP .272 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).