Ryan Sloan — OGILVIE

Ryan Sloan P Arkansas Travelers

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.6 · 2032

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 90 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.47

FIP3.47

K%26.3%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%22.1%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$81M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5555

CMD4555

K†6065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$9M	+$8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.4	$16M	+$16M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$20M	+$20M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+3.2	$22M	+$16M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+3.3	$22M	+$13M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+3.2	$19M	+$7M
Totals		$49M		$109M	+$80M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.86	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.86	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	27.0%	4.5%	22.5%	1.5%	3.73	2.25	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	25.0%	4.3%	20.8%	3.5%	3.73	3.43	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	25.0%	4.3%	20.8%	3.5%	3.73	3.43	—
2026	20	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	30.9%	3.9%	27.1%	2.9%	3.73	2.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	19	19	90	380	100	16	12	100%	4.7	26.3%	4.2%	22.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.47	+1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	132	556	149	23	17	100%	5.1	26.9%	4.2%	22.7%	3.0%	3.45	3.39	+2.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	32	32	171	721	196	30	21	100%	5.3	27.3%	4.1%	23.1%	3.0%	3.40	3.32	+3.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	31	31	176	744	205	30	22	100%	5.7	27.6%	4.1%	23.5%	2.9%	3.34	3.27	+3.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	30	30	176	744	207	30	22	100%	5.9	27.8%	4.0%	23.8%	2.9%	3.29	3.24	+3.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	176	744	209	30	22	100%	6.1	28.0%	4.0%	24.1%	2.9%	3.25	3.22	+3.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	174	733	205	30	22	100%	6.0	28.0%	4.1%	24.0%	3.0%	3.25	3.26	+3.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	168	711	198	30	22	100%	6.0	27.9%	4.2%	23.7%	3.1%	3.30	3.34	+3.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	161	679	188	30	22	100%	6.0	27.7%	4.4%	23.2%	3.2%	3.40	3.47	+2.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	151	638	174	30	22	100%	6.0	27.3%	4.7%	22.6%	3.4%	3.55	3.65	+2.3
2037	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	141	595	160	30	22	100%	5.9	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	3.6%	3.73	3.85	+1.8
2038	32	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	130	551	146	30	21	100%	5.9	26.5%	5.5%	21.0%	3.9%	3.94	4.08	+1.3
2039	33	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	120	505	131	30	21	100%	6.0	26.0%	5.9%	20.0%	4.2%	4.17	4.33	+0.8
2040	34	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	109	459	117	30	21	100%	6.0	25.4%	6.4%	19.0%	4.5%	4.43	4.60	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	66	279	75	12	8	100%	5.1	26.9%	4.2%	22.7%	2.9%	3.41	3.35	+1.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	125	528	144	22	15	100%	5.4	27.3%	4.1%	23.1%	2.9%	3.36	3.28	+2.4
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	146	616	170	25	18	100%	5.6	27.6%	4.1%	23.5%	2.9%	3.30	3.23	+2.9
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	156	659	183	27	19	100%	5.8	27.8%	4.0%	23.8%	2.8%	3.25	3.20	+3.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	161	680	191	27	19	100%	6.0	28.0%	4.0%	24.1%	2.8%	3.21	3.18	+3.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	161	680	191	28	20	100%	6.0	28.0%	4.1%	24.0%	2.9%	3.21	3.22	+3.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	158	667	186	28	20	100%	6.1	27.9%	4.2%	23.7%	3.0%	3.26	3.30	+3.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	153	646	179	29	20	100%	5.9	27.7%	4.4%	23.2%	3.1%	3.36	3.43	+2.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	144	608	166	29	20	100%	6.0	27.3%	4.7%	22.6%	3.3%	3.50	3.60	+2.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	134	566	152	29	20	100%	6.1	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	3.5%	3.68	3.80	+1.7
2038	32	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	124	524	139	29	20	100%	5.9	26.5%	5.5%	21.0%	3.8%	3.89	4.03	+1.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	114	481	125	29	20	100%	6.0	26.0%	5.9%	20.0%	4.1%	4.11	4.27	+0.8
2040	34	MLB CTX	SEA	16	16	98	414	105	27	18	100%	6.1	25.4%	6.4%	19.0%	4.4%	4.37	4.54	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		297	297	1740	7345	2005	338	237	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.6%	22.7%	3.2%	3.49	3.15	+38.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	231	39	27	100%	5.9	27.3%	4.6%	22.7%	3.2%	3.49	3.15	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		43	43	183	747	170	38	18	100%	4.3	22.8%	5.1%	17.7%	2.5%	3.73	3.18	+32.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	815	186	42	20	100%	4.3	22.8%	5.1%	17.7%	2.5%	3.73	3.18	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Sloan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.47	26.3%	4.2%	3.1%	—	3.32	27.3%	23.2%	479	-0.15	—	—	—
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.97	18.4%	10.8%	320	+1.56	3.41	558	80
Ryan Murphy R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	21	SP	3.56	29.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.279	4.53	20.9%	9.8%	181	+0.97	2.54	367	78
Peyton Battenfield R 2021 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.2%	5.3%	3.7%	.232	5.45	13.8%	4.9%	363	+1.87	3.58	466	77
Caleb Kilian R 2021 · 2.42 FIP	24	SP	2.42	23.4%	3.7%	1.5%	.277	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	283	+1.58	2.42	444	75
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	75
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	74
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	74
Tanner Bibee R 2022 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP	3.13	25.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.287	3.58	23.9%	16.9%	513	+0.45	3.13	834	74
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	73
Andrew Painter R 2022 · 2.38 FIP	19	SP	2.38	29.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.287	4.92	20.1%	11.4%	107	+2.54	2.38	361	73
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	73
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.59	22.9%	14.5%	394	+0.44	2.39	500	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.24	21.8%	13.0%	269	+0.19	3.78	327	73
Danny Salazar R 2013 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	30.8%	7.1%	3.3%	.298	3.46	26.2%	18.4%	432	+0.24	3.22	587	72
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.95	17.8%	13.8%	326	+1.06	2.89	417	72
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	72
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	72
Wilmer Flores R 2022 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP	3.52	24.6%	6.0%	3.1%	.274	4.18	18.7%	6.7%	106	+0.66	2.68	275	72
Michel Baez R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	21	SP	3.77	27.0%	4.2%	4.4%	.260	4.02	21.0%	10.4%	162	+0.25	3.12	297	72
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 497 starter careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.4	148	27.2%	4.6%	1.27	3.52
Corey Kluber ('23)	8.2	149	25.8%	5.5%	0.97	3.44
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Masahiro Tanaka ('20)	5.3	151	23.1%	4.8%	1.36	3.74
Curt Schilling ('07)	16.2	180	23.6%	5.3%	0.95	3.42
David Price ('22)	10.7	165	23.6%	6.4%	0.93	3.32