Ryan Sloan — OGILVIE

Ryan Sloan P Arkansas Travelers

+0.9 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.2 · 2032

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.5%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.1%

IP71

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2032

OFP—60

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A+	Everett AquaSox	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	20.1%	6.2%	1.3%	3.73	2.89	+2.1
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	2	2	8	33	8	3	0	—	—	—	4.50	—	—
ROS	20	MLB	SEA	13	13	71	299	67	25	8	22.5%	8.3%	2.8%	4.15	4.15	+0.7
2026 Total	20	MLB	SEA	—	—	79	332	75	28	8	22.7%	8.4%	2.5%	4.19	3.73	+1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	SEA	13	13	74	313	72	26	9	23.0%	8.2%	2.7%	4.11	4.08	+0.8
2028	22	MLB	SEA	14	14	78	329	79	26	9	23.9%	7.9%	2.7%	4.01	3.94	+1.0
2029	23	MLB	SEA	15	15	81	341	84	26	9	24.6%	7.6%	2.7%	3.91	3.83	+1.2
2030	24	MLB	SEA	18	18	99	417	105	31	11	25.1%	7.4%	2.6%	3.82	3.75	+1.7
2031	25	MLB	SEA	20	20	112	473	120	35	12	25.4%	7.3%	2.6%	3.74	3.69	+2.0
2032	26	MLB	SEA	22	22	119	502	129	36	13	25.7%	7.3%	2.6%	3.70	3.67	+2.2
2033	27	MLB	SEA	22	22	122	516	132	38	14	25.7%	7.3%	2.6%	3.69	3.68	+2.2
2034	28	MLB	SEA	22	22	122	516	132	38	14	25.6%	7.3%	2.7%	3.70	3.71	+2.2
2035	29	MLB	SEA	22	22	120	505	129	37	14	25.5%	7.4%	2.7%	3.73	3.75	+2.1
2036	30	MLB	SEA	21	21	116	489	124	37	14	25.3%	7.5%	2.8%	3.78	3.81	+2.0
2037	31	MLB	SEA	20	20	112	472	118	36	13	25.1%	7.6%	2.8%	3.85	3.89	+1.8
2038	32	MLB	SEA	20	20	107	453	112	35	13	24.8%	7.8%	2.9%	3.93	3.98	+1.6
2039	33	MLB	SEA	19	19	102	433	106	34	13	24.5%	8.0%	3.0%	4.02	4.07	+1.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			23	23	90	366	75	24	4	20.4%	6.5%	1.2%	3.80	2.83	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—			51	51	200	813	167	53	9	20.4%	6.5%	1.2%	3.80	2.83	+5.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Sloan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	22.5%	8.3%	2.8%	—	3.95	23.8%	15.9%	233	-0.20	—	—	—
Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	20	SW	3.88	22.0%	7.0%	3.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.88	211	88
Sam Bragg R 2028 · 3.26 FIP	22	SW	3.26	23.2%	8.6%	1.9%	.306	3.98	15.7%	8.5%	203	+0.72	3.26	277	88
Alejandro Chacin R 2028 · 2.87 FIP	22	SW	2.87	26.0%	8.2%	1.7%	.298	3.72	21.5%	11.4%	166	+0.85	2.87	217	86
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2026 · 3.18 FIP	20	SW	3.18	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.11	3.18	130	86
J.B. Wendelken R 2028 · 3.41 FIP	22	SW	3.41	23.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.288	3.88	27.2%	16.4%	124	+0.47	3.02	393	85
Adam Parks R 2028 · 3.77 FIP	22	SW	3.77	21.4%	7.3%	2.8%	.356	4.10	24.1%	16.7%	64	+0.33	3.45	137	85
John Russell R 2028 · 3.98 FIP	22	SW	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.78	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.80	3.92	158	85
Alessandro Ercolani R 2026 · 3.89 FIP	20	SW	3.89	22.9%	9.2%	2.8%	.267	5.28	12.7%	2.8%	100	+1.39	3.82	291	85
Jack Anderson R 2028 · 3.09 FIP	22	SW	3.09	21.7%	6.1%	1.9%	.333	4.28	18.8%	12.8%	207	+1.19	3.09	267	85
Zach Agnos R 2028 · 3.13 FIP	22	SW	3.13	22.8%	6.9%	2.0%	.265	3.79	20.7%	12.6%	84	+0.66	2.73	136	84
Pat Gallagher R 2029 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	21.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.284	3.50	18.7%	9.0%	167	-0.40	3.06	230	84
Alex Cook R 2028 · 4.03 FIP	22	SW	4.03	26.1%	10.8%	3.2%	.266	3.34	21.0%	12.9%	53	-0.69	2.94	119	84
Nick Rumbelow R 2029 · 3.21 FIP	23	SW	3.21	22.6%	6.1%	2.3%	.295	3.40	24.8%	16.4%	64	+0.19	2.03	164	84
Parker Curry R 2029 · 3.75 FIP	23	SW	3.75	22.5%	8.2%	2.8%	.341	4.60	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.85	3.75	256	84
Luke Eubank R 2027 · 3.21 FIP	21	SW	3.21	19.9%	6.7%	1.7%	.283	3.67	18.1%	8.7%	94	+0.46	3.18	157	84
Scott Engler R 2028 · 2.95 FIP	22	SW	2.95	26.4%	10.2%	1.5%	.296	4.14	23.8%	12.6%	53	+1.19	2.95	170	83
Kyle Zimmer R 2029 · 3.71 FIP	23	SW	3.71	21.8%	8.6%	2.5%	.293	4.53	20.4%	9.0%	33	+0.82	2.08	276	83
Jordan Johnson R 2027 · 2.93 FIP	21	SW	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	4.98	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.05	2.93	443	83
David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	83
Cody Laweryson R 2029 · 4.03 FIP	23	SW	4.03	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.52	21.5%	12.4%	178	-0.51	2.48	281	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$8M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$10M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.7	$15M	+$14M
2031	Arb-3	$5M	+2.0	$19M	+$14M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+2.2	$21M	+$13M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$12M	+2.2	$22M	+$9M
Totals		$28M		$95M	+$68M