Ryan Sloan

P Arkansas Travelers

Age 21 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.2 · 2030

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP60OGV rank#6ETA2028MLB%12%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	21	21	82	3.73	2.25	27.0%	4.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 6.2% · FIP 2.86
2026	20	AASEA	22	22	101	3.73	2.59	30.9%	3.9%	—	K 25.0% · BB 4.3% · FIP 3.43
2027PROJ	21	MLBSEA	2	2	11	3.47	3.47	26.3%	4.2%	0.3
2028PROJ62% MLB	22	MLBSEA	14	14	73	3.41	3.35	26.8%	4.1%	1.8
2029PROJ82% MLB	23	MLBSEA	22	22	118	3.36	3.28	27.2%	4.1%	3.0

Next 3 projected WAR 5.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$8M2032Arb-2$14M2033Arb-3$20M

Career WAR1.8 WAR median (P10 -1.0 / P90 39, comp-based) · star 8% · didn't stick 57%

CompsXzavion Curry (age 23) · Ryan Murphy (age 21) · Peyton Battenfield (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9991vR 83

ERA3.47

FIP3.47

K%26.3%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%22.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$109M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.8	$13M	+$13M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.0	$23M	+$23M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.3	$25M	+$25M
2031	Arb-1	$8M	+3.5	$26M	+$20M
2032	Arb-2	$14M	+3.7	$26M	+$18M
2033	Arb-3	$20M	+3.6	$23M	+$13M
Totals		$44M		$137M	+$111M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.86	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.86	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	27.0%	4.5%	22.5%	1.5%	3.73	2.25	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	25.0%	4.3%	20.8%	3.5%	3.73	3.43	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	25.0%	4.3%	20.8%	3.5%	3.73	3.43	—
2026	20	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	30.9%	3.9%	27.1%	2.9%	3.73	2.59	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SEA	2	2	11	46	12	2	1	100%	5.5	26.3%	4.2%	22.1%	3.1%	3.47	3.47	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	119	502	134	21	15	100%	5.2	26.8%	4.1%	22.7%	3.0%	3.45	3.39	+2.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	144	608	165	25	18	100%	5.3	27.2%	4.1%	23.1%	3.0%	3.40	3.32	+3.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	146	615	169	25	18	100%	5.6	27.5%	4.0%	23.5%	2.9%	3.35	3.28	+3.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	25	25	145	613	170	25	18	100%	5.8	27.8%	4.0%	23.8%	2.9%	3.29	3.24	+3.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	146	616	173	24	18	100%	6.1	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	2.9%	3.25	3.22	+3.9
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	144	607	170	25	18	100%	6.0	28.0%	4.0%	23.9%	3.0%	3.25	3.26	+3.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	SEA	23	23	139	586	163	25	18	100%	6.0	27.9%	4.2%	23.7%	3.1%	3.30	3.34	+3.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	131	555	153	25	18	100%	6.0	27.6%	4.4%	23.2%	3.2%	3.40	3.47	+3.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	121	512	140	24	17	100%	6.1	27.3%	4.7%	22.6%	3.4%	3.55	3.65	+2.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	SEA	18	18	110	463	124	23	17	100%	6.1	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	3.6%	3.73	3.85	+2.0
2038	32	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	97	410	108	22	16	100%	6.1	26.4%	5.5%	20.9%	3.9%	3.94	4.08	+1.5
2039	33	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	84	354	92	21	15	100%	6.0	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	4.2%	4.17	4.33	+1.1
2040	34	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	71	301	76	19	13	100%	5.9	25.4%	6.4%	18.9%	4.5%	4.43	4.60	+0.7
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	73	308	83	13	9	100%	5.2	26.8%	4.1%	22.7%	2.9%	3.41	3.35	+1.8
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	118	498	136	20	14	100%	5.4	27.2%	4.1%	23.1%	2.9%	3.36	3.28	+3.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	129	545	150	22	16	100%	5.6	27.5%	4.0%	23.5%	2.9%	3.31	3.24	+3.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	133	562	156	23	16	100%	5.8	27.8%	4.0%	23.8%	2.8%	3.25	3.20	+3.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	137	578	162	23	16	100%	6.0	28.0%	4.0%	24.0%	2.8%	3.21	3.18	+3.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	137	578	162	23	17	100%	6.0	28.0%	4.0%	23.9%	2.9%	3.21	3.22	+3.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	132	557	155	23	17	100%	6.0	27.9%	4.2%	23.7%	3.0%	3.26	3.30	+3.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	125	528	146	23	17	100%	6.0	27.6%	4.4%	23.2%	3.1%	3.36	3.43	+2.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	115	486	132	23	16	100%	6.1	27.3%	4.7%	22.6%	3.3%	3.50	3.60	+2.4
2037	31	MLB CTX	SEA	17	17	104	439	118	22	16	100%	6.1	26.9%	5.1%	21.8%	3.5%	3.68	3.80	+1.9
2038	32	MLB CTX	SEA	15	15	92	388	103	21	15	100%	6.1	26.4%	5.5%	20.9%	3.8%	3.89	4.03	+1.4
2039	33	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	80	338	88	20	14	100%	6.2	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	4.1%	4.11	4.27	+1.0
2040	34	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	64	270	69	17	12	100%	5.8	25.4%	6.4%	18.9%	4.4%	4.37	4.54	+0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		246	246	1439	6075	1658	274	193	100%	5.8	27.3%	4.5%	22.8%	3.2%	3.46	3.11	+41.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	230	38	27	100%	5.8	27.3%	4.5%	22.8%	3.2%	3.46	3.11	+5.7
Career	—	MLE		43	43	183	747	170	38	18	100%	4.3	22.8%	5.1%	17.7%	2.5%	3.73	3.18	+36.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	815	186	42	20	100%	4.3	22.8%	5.1%	17.7%	2.5%	3.73	3.18	+4.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 101 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.43 (+0.86)K% 30.9% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.92%	—	×0.810	25.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.86%	—	×1.100	4.25%
HR / BF /BF	2.90%	÷1.000	×1.200	3.48%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AModesto Nuts · 71 IPFIP 1.87 → 2.86 (+0.99)K% 27.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.11%	—	×0.740	20.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.28%	—	×1.180	6.23%
HR / BF /BF	0.70%	÷0.759	×1.300	1.21%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 52).

Result: FIP 1.87 → 2.86, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Everett AquaSox · 11 IPFIP 4.22 → 5.43 (+1.21)K% 26.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.53%	—	×0.770	20.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	6.12%	÷1.036	×1.250	7.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.22 → 5.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Sloan (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	3.33	27.2%	23.1%	408	-0.14	—	—	—
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.97	18.4%	10.8%	320	+1.56	3.41	558	80
Ryan Murphy R 2021 · 3.56 FIP	21	SP	3.56	29.4%	7.3%	3.7%	.279	4.53	20.9%	9.8%	181	+0.97	2.54	367	78
Peyton Battenfield R 2021 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	26.2%	5.3%	3.7%	.232	5.45	13.8%	4.9%	363	+1.87	3.58	466	77
Caleb Kilian R 2021 · 2.42 FIP	24	SP	2.42	23.4%	3.7%	1.5%	.277	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	283	+1.58	2.42	444	76
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.91	23.3%	17.7%	415	-0.05	3.15	521	75
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	75
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	75
Tanner Bibee R 2022 · 3.13 FIP	23	SP	3.13	25.5%	5.9%	2.6%	.287	3.58	23.9%	16.9%	513	+0.45	3.13	834	74
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.56	19.7%	12.2%	362	+0.47	2.91	489	74
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	73
Andrew Painter R 2022 · 2.38 FIP	19	SP	2.38	29.6%	7.3%	1.6%	.287	4.92	20.1%	11.4%	107	+2.54	2.38	361	73
Gavin Stone R 2021 · 3.15 FIP	22	SP	3.15	27.3%	7.8%	2.5%	.385	3.59	22.9%	14.5%	394	+0.44	2.39	500	73
David Sandlin R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	22	SP	4.05	24.8%	6.5%	4.0%	.360	4.24	21.8%	13.0%	269	+0.19	3.78	327	73
Danny Salazar R 2013 · 3.22 FIP	23	SP	3.22	30.8%	7.1%	3.3%	.298	3.46	26.2%	18.4%	432	+0.24	3.22	587	72
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.95	17.8%	13.8%	326	+1.06	2.89	417	72
Angel Jimenez R 2023 · 3.31 FIP	20	SP	3.31	23.3%	5.1%	2.8%	.368	4.43	21.1%	10.0%	144	+1.12	3.24	223	72
Wilmer Flores R 2022 · 3.52 FIP	21	SP	3.52	24.6%	6.0%	3.1%	.274	4.18	18.7%	6.7%	106	+0.66	2.68	275	72
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	72
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	72
Michel Baez R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	21	SP	3.77	27.0%	4.2%	4.4%	.260	4.02	21.0%	10.4%	162	+0.25	3.12	297	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 927 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 430 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8.4	120	27.2%	4.5%	1.25	3.50
John Candelaria ('75-'93, 42 WAR*)	12.6	140	22.5%*	5.7%*	1.34*	3.73*
Kenta Maeda ('25)	4.9	123	25.8%	7.0%	1.30	4.20
Michael Pineda ('22)	5.0	112	23.1%	5.3%	1.28	4.06
Pablo López ('25)	4.8	121	24.9%	6.3%	1.07	3.81
Dick Hughes ('66-'68, 5 WAR*)	1.5	102	24.1%*	7.1%*	1.51*	3.68*
Danny Darwin ('78-'98, 36 WAR*)	15.1	151	20.5%*	6.7%*	1.21*	4.02*