Ryan Sloan — OGILVIE

Ryan Sloan P Arkansas Travelers

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.3 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109100vR 91

ERA3.93

FIP3.93

K%22.7%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%16.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 127 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD4555

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$9M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.8%	3.73	3.17	—
2025	19	MIX	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	27.0%	4.5%	22.5%	1.5%	3.73	2.25	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	AA	Arkansas Travelers	14	14	62	259	77	12	8	100%	4.5	24.1%	5.1%	19.0%	3.7%	4.04	3.75	+0.6
ROS	20	MLB	SEA	14	14	65	274	62	18	8	100%	4.6	22.7%	6.4%	16.2%	2.8%	3.93	3.93	+0.5
ROS	20	MLB	SEA	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	22.7%	6.4%	16.2%	2.8%	3.89	3.89	+0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB	SEA	—	—	127	533	139	30	16	—	—	26.1%	5.6%	20.6%	3.0%	3.99	3.84	+2.3
2026 FULL	20	MLB	SEA	—	—	1	5	1	0	0	—	—	22.7%	6.4%	16.3%	2.8%	3.89	3.51	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SEA	26	26	128	543	128	35	15	100%	4.9	23.6%	6.4%	17.3%	2.8%	3.88	3.82	+2.4
2028	22	MLB	SEA	33	33	171	722	180	44	20	100%	5.2	24.9%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	3.75	3.65	+3.5
2029	23	MLB	SEA	33	33	175	739	190	43	20	100%	5.3	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.7%	3.63	3.54	+3.8
2030	24	MLB	SEA	32	32	179	757	198	43	20	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.7%	20.5%	2.7%	3.53	3.46	+4.1
2031	25	MLB	SEA	31	31	180	760	202	42	20	100%	5.8	26.6%	5.5%	21.0%	2.7%	3.45	3.40	+4.2
2032	26	MLB	SEA	30	30	180	760	204	42	20	100%	6.0	26.8%	5.5%	21.3%	2.7%	3.41	3.38	+4.3
2033	27	MLB	SEA	30	30	177	749	200	42	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	5.6%	21.2%	2.7%	3.41	3.42	+4.1
2034	28	MLB	SEA	29	29	172	726	194	41	20	100%	5.9	26.7%	5.7%	20.9%	2.8%	3.46	3.50	+3.8
2035	29	MLB	SEA	27	27	164	694	183	41	21	100%	6.1	26.4%	5.9%	20.5%	3.0%	3.56	3.63	+3.4
2036	30	MLB	SEA	26	26	154	652	170	41	21	100%	5.9	26.1%	6.2%	19.8%	3.2%	3.71	3.81	+2.9
2037	31	MLB	SEA	24	24	144	608	156	40	21	100%	6.0	25.7%	6.6%	19.1%	3.4%	3.89	4.01	+2.3
2038	32	MLB	SEA	22	22	133	562	142	39	21	100%	6.1	25.2%	7.0%	18.2%	3.6%	4.10	4.24	+1.8
2039	33	MLB	SEA	20	20	122	516	127	38	20	100%	6.1	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	3.9%	4.33	4.49	+1.3
2027	21	MLB	SEA	13	13	64	270	64	17	7	100%	4.9	23.6%	6.4%	17.3%	2.7%	3.84	3.78	+0.6
2028	22	MLB	SEA	25	25	125	528	131	32	14	100%	5.0	24.9%	6.1%	18.9%	2.7%	3.71	3.61	+2.6
2029	23	MLB	SEA	28	28	148	625	161	36	17	100%	5.3	25.7%	5.8%	19.9%	2.6%	3.59	3.50	+3.3
2030	24	MLB	SEA	29	29	160	676	177	38	18	100%	5.5	26.2%	5.7%	20.5%	2.6%	3.49	3.42	+3.7
2031	25	MLB	SEA	28	28	165	697	185	39	18	100%	5.9	26.6%	5.5%	21.0%	2.6%	3.41	3.36	+3.9
2032	26	MLB	SEA	28	28	168	709	190	39	18	100%	6.0	26.8%	5.5%	21.3%	2.6%	3.37	3.34	+4.0
2033	27	MLB	SEA	28	28	168	709	190	39	19	100%	6.0	26.8%	5.6%	21.2%	2.7%	3.37	3.38	+4.0
2034	28	MLB	SEA	27	27	163	688	183	39	19	100%	6.0	26.7%	5.7%	20.9%	2.8%	3.42	3.46	+3.7
2035	29	MLB	SEA	26	26	156	659	174	39	19	100%	6.0	26.4%	5.9%	20.5%	2.9%	3.52	3.59	+3.3
2036	30	MLB	SEA	24	24	147	621	162	39	19	100%	6.1	26.1%	6.2%	19.8%	3.1%	3.67	3.77	+2.8
2037	31	MLB	SEA	23	23	137	578	148	38	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	6.6%	19.1%	3.3%	3.84	3.96	+2.3
2038	32	MLB	SEA	21	21	127	536	135	37	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	7.0%	18.2%	3.6%	4.05	4.19	+1.8
2039	33	MLB	SEA	19	19	116	490	121	36	19	100%	6.1	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	3.8%	4.28	4.44	+1.3
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			320	320	1846	7796	2024	470	225	100%	5.8	26.0%	6.0%	19.9%	2.9%	3.62	3.26	+46.2
/ 200 IP	—			35	35	200	844	219	51	24	100%	5.8	26.0%	6.0%	19.9%	2.9%	3.62	3.26	+5.0
Career	—			35	35	144	592	129	34	15	100%	4.1	21.8%	5.7%	16.1%	2.6%	3.87	3.42	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			48	48	200	820	179	47	21	100%	4.1	21.8%	5.7%	16.1%	2.6%	3.87	3.42	+4.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Sloan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	22.7%	6.4%	2.8%	—	3.66	24.9%	18.8%	474	-0.27	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2027 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP	3.57	19.8%	5.0%	2.8%	.287	5.84	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.27	3.57	203	89
Christian Zazueta R 2026 · 3.80 FIP	20	SP	3.80	22.0%	7.0%	3.0%	.277	3.55	28.6%	22.7%	66	-0.25	3.55	276	88
Jaden Hamm R 2027 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP	4.01	23.5%	8.9%	3.2%	.273	4.70	17.1%	7.3%	83	+0.69	4.01	182	87
Khal Stephen R 2028 · 3.05 FIP	22	SP	3.05	20.6%	5.7%	1.8%	.284	4.72	16.9%	6.1%	55	+1.67	3.05	158	85
Garrett Burhenn R 2028 · 4.19 FIP	22	SP	4.19	21.1%	7.7%	3.5%	.333	4.44	16.9%	8.8%	341	+0.25	4.19	433	84
Cade Horton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP	21	SP	3.09	26.0%	8.8%	1.9%	.273	3.57	22.0%	13.7%	181	+0.48	3.09	270	84
Jordan Johnson R 2027 · 2.91 FIP	21	SP	2.91	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.12	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.21	2.91	443	83
Cody Morris R 2028 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP	4.00	21.6%	8.1%	3.1%	.362	2.86	31.1%	20.9%	96	-1.14	2.26	256	82
Braylon Doughty R 2026 · 2.87 FIP	20	SP	2.87	21.7%	5.8%	1.6%	.362	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	158	82
Braxton Bragg R 2029 · 3.78 FIP	23	SP	3.78	22.3%	6.4%	3.2%	.325	2.47	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.31	2.47	155	82
Carlo Reyes R 2027 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.18	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.30	2.79	229	81
McCade Brown R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	21	SP	4.16	23.0%	7.1%	3.8%	.349	4.35	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.19	3.82	207	81
Owen Wild R 2028 · 3.80 FIP	22	SP	3.80	23.2%	7.2%	3.2%	.319	5.20	20.8%	10.7%	143	+1.40	3.80	264	80
Mason Black R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP	3.81	22.3%	9.0%	2.6%	.297	4.81	21.5%	10.4%	364	+1.00	3.81	527	80
Austin Gordon R 2028 · 4.70 FIP	22	SP	4.70	19.5%	8.3%	4.0%	.315	5.46	17.4%	7.9%	75	+0.76	4.70	159	80
Kyle Brnovich R 2029 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	25.1%	7.5%	3.2%	.256	5.06	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.37	3.69	333	80
Cory Lewis R 2028 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	21.7%	9.3%	1.7%	.267	5.26	21.4%	5.2%	183	+1.87	3.39	284	80
Logan Workman R 2029 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP	4.30	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.81	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.49	3.73	540	79
Cedric De Grandpre R 2027 · 3.37 FIP	21	SP	3.37	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.12	24.1%	9.1%	132	+0.75	3.37	219	79
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	22.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.292	5.42	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.35	4.07	378	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	14	155	25.7%	6.1%	1.14	3.68
Joe Musgrove ('24)	9	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	10	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Lance Lynn ('24)	9	154	23.9%	8.1%	1.20	3.86
Corey Kluber ('23)	8	149	26.1%	5.4%	1.05	3.48
Zack Greinke ('23) CYAS×6GG×6SS×2HOF	9	169	21.2%	4.8%	1.10	3.42
Madison Bumgarner ('22) AS×4SS	8	155	22.7%	5.9%	1.23	3.70