Ryan Sloan — OGILVIE

Ryan Sloan P Arkansas Travelers

Age 20 RHP 6'5" / 220 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 2.7 · 2031

2026 ROS PROJECTION101 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.79

FIP3.79

K%22.7%

BB%5.7%

K-BB%17.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$101M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5055

CMD5055

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.1	$14M	+$14M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.7	$18M	+$17M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.0	$20M	+$19M
2031	Arb-1	$9M	+3.2	$21M	+$15M
2032	Arb-2	$15M	+3.4	$21M	+$13M
2033	Arb-3	$22M	+3.3	$19M	+$8M
Totals		$49M		$113M	+$87M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.86	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	20.1%	6.2%	13.8%	1.2%	3.73	2.86	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	82	333	90	15	5	100%	3.9	27.0%	4.5%	22.5%	1.5%	3.73	2.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	25.0%	4.3%	20.8%	3.5%	3.73	3.43	—
YTD	20	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	25.0%	4.3%	20.8%	3.5%	3.73	3.43	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	AA RAW	SEA	22	22	101	414	128	16	12	100%	4.6	30.9%	3.9%	27.1%	2.9%	3.73	2.57	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	SEA	2	2	8	32	7	2	1	100%	3.8	22.7%	5.7%	17.1%	2.7%	3.79	3.79	+0.1
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	109	446	135	18	13	—	—	30.3%	4.0%	26.3%	2.9%	3.73	3.46	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SEA	28	28	138	584	138	33	16	100%	4.9	23.7%	5.7%	18.0%	2.7%	3.74	3.69	+2.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	33	33	175	739	185	40	20	100%	5.3	25.0%	5.4%	19.6%	2.7%	3.63	3.53	+2.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	33	33	176	741	191	39	20	100%	5.3	25.8%	5.2%	20.5%	2.6%	3.52	3.42	+3.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	32	32	180	760	199	38	20	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.1%	21.2%	2.6%	3.42	3.35	+3.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	31	31	180	760	202	37	20	100%	5.8	26.6%	4.9%	21.7%	2.6%	3.34	3.29	+3.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	30	30	180	760	204	37	20	100%	6.0	26.9%	4.9%	22.0%	2.6%	3.29	3.26	+3.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	30	30	177	749	201	37	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	5.0%	21.9%	2.7%	3.30	3.30	+3.5
2034	28	MLB MLE	SEA	29	29	172	726	194	37	20	100%	5.9	26.7%	5.1%	21.6%	2.8%	3.35	3.39	+3.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	SEA	27	27	164	694	184	37	20	100%	6.1	26.5%	5.3%	21.1%	2.9%	3.45	3.52	+2.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	154	652	170	37	20	100%	5.9	26.1%	5.6%	20.5%	3.1%	3.60	3.69	+2.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	144	608	156	36	20	100%	6.0	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	3.3%	3.78	3.90	+1.7
2038	32	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	133	562	142	36	20	100%	6.1	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	3.6%	3.99	4.12	+1.2
2039	33	MLB MLE	SEA	20	20	122	516	128	35	20	100%	6.1	24.8%	6.8%	17.9%	3.9%	4.22	4.37	+0.8
2027	21	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	69	291	69	16	8	100%	4.9	23.7%	5.7%	18.0%	2.6%	3.70	3.65	+1.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	25	25	128	540	135	29	14	100%	5.1	25.0%	5.4%	19.6%	2.6%	3.59	3.49	+2.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	148	625	161	33	16	100%	5.3	25.8%	5.2%	20.5%	2.6%	3.48	3.38	+2.7
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	29	29	161	680	178	34	17	100%	5.6	26.2%	5.1%	21.2%	2.6%	3.38	3.31	+3.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	165	697	186	34	18	100%	5.9	26.6%	4.9%	21.7%	2.5%	3.30	3.25	+3.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	168	709	190	35	18	100%	6.0	26.9%	4.9%	22.0%	2.5%	3.25	3.22	+3.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	28	28	168	709	190	35	18	100%	6.0	26.8%	5.0%	21.9%	2.6%	3.26	3.26	+3.3
2034	28	MLB CTX	SEA	27	27	163	688	184	35	19	100%	6.0	26.7%	5.1%	21.6%	2.7%	3.31	3.35	+3.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	156	659	174	35	19	100%	6.0	26.5%	5.3%	21.1%	2.8%	3.41	3.48	+2.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	147	621	162	35	19	100%	6.1	26.1%	5.6%	20.5%	3.0%	3.56	3.65	+2.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	SEA	23	23	137	578	149	35	19	100%	6.0	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	3.3%	3.73	3.85	+1.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	SEA	21	21	127	536	136	34	19	100%	6.0	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	3.5%	3.94	4.07	+1.2
2039	33	MLB CTX	SEA	19	19	116	490	121	34	18	100%	6.1	24.8%	6.8%	17.9%	3.8%	4.17	4.32	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		321	321	1854	7828	2037	425	222	100%	5.8	26.0%	5.4%	20.6%	2.8%	3.51	3.14	+40.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	220	46	24	100%	5.8	26.0%	5.4%	20.6%	2.8%	3.51	3.14	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		43	43	183	747	170	38	18	100%	4.3	22.8%	5.1%	17.7%	2.5%	3.73	3.18	+34.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	47	200	815	186	42	20	100%	4.3	22.8%	5.1%	17.7%	2.5%	3.73	3.18	+3.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Sloan (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	22.7%	5.7%	2.7%	—	3.54	24.9%	19.5%	489	-0.25	—	—	—
Matt Tabor R 2019 · 3.36 FIP	21	SP	3.36	19.8%	5.0%	2.4%	.287	5.90	16.8%	7.7%	107	+2.54	3.36	203	90
Jordan Johnson R 2015 · 2.93 FIP	21	SP	2.93	21.2%	5.7%	1.6%	.347	5.00	15.3%	5.2%	350	+2.07	2.93	443	83
Cade Horton R 2023 · 3.22 FIP	21	SP	3.22	26.0%	8.8%	2.2%	.273	3.60	21.6%	13.8%	181	+0.38	3.22	270	82
McCade Brown R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	21	SP	4.05	23.0%	7.1%	3.6%	.349	4.50	24.1%	12.2%	117	+0.45	3.99	207	81
Garrett Burhenn R 2022 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	21.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.333	4.37	16.9%	8.8%	341	-0.03	4.30	433	80
Carlo Reyes R 2019 · 2.88 FIP	21	SP	2.88	19.8%	6.6%	1.1%	.300	4.15	22.7%	13.3%	106	+1.27	2.60	229	80
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	80
Aaron Phillips R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	21	SP	3.96	20.7%	4.4%	3.7%	.290	5.22	13.7%	3.6%	188	+1.26	3.96	289	80
Richard Fitts R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	22	SP	4.09	22.0%	5.3%	4.0%	.271	4.58	19.4%	11.9%	362	+0.49	2.96	489	79
Lazaro Estrada R 2018 · 3.09 FIP	19	SP	3.09	21.2%	5.4%	2.0%	.250	4.46	22.7%	11.7%	16	+1.37	1.92	415	79
Owen Murphy R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	19	SP	4.20	22.0%	9.9%	3.1%	.325	4.03	22.8%	13.3%	186	-0.17	2.78	275	78
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	78
Pierson Ohl R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	22	SP	2.89	19.9%	4.1%	1.7%	.350	3.96	17.7%	13.8%	326	+1.07	2.89	417	78
Zebby Matthews R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	20.0%	4.1%	3.7%	.290	3.98	22.8%	17.1%	404	+0.02	3.18	510	78
Kyle Brnovich R 2021 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP	3.95	25.1%	7.5%	3.7%	.256	5.54	20.7%	11.0%	89	+1.59	3.95	338	78
Xzavion Curry R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	23	SP	3.41	24.6%	5.1%	3.2%	.247	4.98	18.3%	10.7%	320	+1.57	3.41	553	78
Domingo Acevedo R 2016 · 3.07 FIP	22	SP	3.07	20.7%	6.9%	1.6%	.324	4.12	19.8%	12.5%	249	+1.05	2.14	474	78
Connor Lunn R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	18.9%	4.7%	2.9%	.310	4.64	16.5%	10.0%	212	+0.97	3.67	332	78
Mason Black R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	22.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.297	4.67	20.7%	10.8%	364	+0.72	3.95	567	78
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	8.9%	177	+0.79	3.38	264	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.9	156	25.8%	5.4%	1.12	3.57
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Noah Syndergaard ('23)	4.7	134	23.8%	5.5%	0.95	3.70
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68