David Sandlin P Charlotte Knights
Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.6 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115106vR 97
ERA4.24
FIP4.24
K%21.2%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.0%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP
K: +0.0 runs (Runs saved by strikeouts vs lg-avg K%)+0KBB: -1.7 runs (Runs saved by walk suppression vs lg-avg BB%)-2BBCONTACT: +0.1 runs (Runs saved on contact quality (HR suppression) vs lg)+0CONTACTSTAM: +16.5 runs (Replacement credit for innings volume)+17STAMTotal WAR: +1.58 (122 IP)+1.6WAR
0.00.51.00.60.10.1+$5M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
projected WAR paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Contract
Scouting Grades
OFP45
STUF4050
CTRL50
CMD4045
K†5055
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8296.8
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p6525.0%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2031
First FA Year   2032
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026ROSPre-Arb$0.3M+0.6$3M+$2M
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.3M $3M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR GS%IP/G K%BB%K-BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202221ROKACL Royals1127300100%2.042.9%0.0%42.9%0.0%0.00-0.52
202221ROKACL Royals1127300100%2.042.9%0.0%42.9%0.0%0.000.10
202322MIX2 levels14146727187189100%4.824.8%6.5%18.3%3.7%3.513.89
202322MIX2 levels14146727187189100%4.832.1%6.6%25.5%3.3%3.513.06
202423MIX2 levels181857247821814100%3.226.1%8.2%17.8%6.5%5.345.54
202423MIX2 levels181857247821814100%3.233.2%7.3%25.9%5.7%5.344.36
202524MIX2 levels3214106457107401044%3.319.3%9.5%9.8%2.2%4.503.90
202524MIX2 levels3214106457107401044%3.323.4%8.8%14.7%2.2%4.503.44
▸ 2026 Season
202625MLBChicago White Sox1413582476031693%4.121.0%11.9%9.1%2.8%3.434.35+0.1
ROS25MLBCWS11116527458288100%5.921.2%10.2%11.0%3.0%4.244.24+0.3
ROS25MLBCWS11116527458288100%5.921.2%10.2%11.0%3.0%4.274.27+0.3
2026 TOT25MLBCWS122521118591422.6%11.3%11.3%2.7%3.864.29+1.6
2026 FULL25MLBCWS84355118591433.2%16.6%16.6%4.0%5.644.60+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202726MLBCWS21211265321185317100%6.022.2%10.0%12.2%3.3%4.674.66+1.1
202827MLBCWS21211245241165217100%5.922.2%9.9%12.3%3.3%4.654.66+1.1
202928MLBCWS20201205081125017100%6.022.1%9.9%12.1%3.4%4.694.73+0.9
202726MLBCWS20201205071135117100%6.022.2%10.0%12.2%3.3%4.704.69+1.0
202827MLBCWS20201184981114917100%5.922.2%9.9%12.3%3.3%4.684.69+1.0
202928MLBCWS19191144811064817100%6.022.1%9.9%12.1%3.4%4.724.76+0.9
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career777643618404071856299%5.722.1%10.1%12.1%3.4%4.704.37+5.3
/ 200 IP3535200844187852899%5.622.1%10.1%12.1%3.4%4.704.37+2.4
Career796029012292751114376%3.722.3%9.0%13.3%3.5%4.194.29+3.8
/ 200 IP5541200849190763076%3.722.3%9.0%13.3%3.5%4.194.29+2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
David Sandlin (OGILVIE) 4.58 21.2%9.8%3.0% 4.68 22.2%12.2%370 +0.10
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 3.77 FIP 25 SP- 3.77 20.3%8.7%2.4%.309 3.63 21.4%13.2%123 -0.14 1.87 232 80
Andrew Politi R 2026 · 5.50 FIP 25 SP- 5.50 21.0%12.2%4.8%.320 4.16 23.1%13.2%138 -1.34 3.45 292 79
Dawson Netz R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 25 SP- 4.42 23.3%10.7%3.5%.225 4.42 102 78
Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.47 FIP 25 SP- 4.47 19.5%8.7%3.5%.309 3.81 20.9%12.5%309 -0.66 3.05 907 77
Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.98 FIP 25 SP- 4.98 17.6%11.2%3.6%.282 9.58 19.7%7.1%18 +4.60 4.98 105 77
Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 4.89 FIP 25 SP- 4.89 18.7%10.0%3.8%.344 4.91 18.4%4.5%125 +0.02 2.81 606 76
Paxton Schultz R 2026 · 5.16 FIP 25 SP- 5.16 19.7%13.2%3.7%.319 4.17 23.5%13.9%196 -0.99 4.00 512 76
Angel Araiza R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 16.7%6.5%3.7%.287 3.95 15.0%7.6%193 -0.60 3.53 289 76
Brett Daniels R 2026 · 4.55 FIP 25 SP- 4.55 22.3%13.0%3.1%.357 4.75 18.9%2.6%77 +0.20 3.98 270 76
Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.62 FIP 25 SP- 4.62 16.9%11.4%2.7%.303 4.01 16.6%4.2%20 -0.61 4.01 214 75
Sean Mooney R 2025 · 4.82 FIP 24 SP- 4.82 24.7%13.5%3.8%.277 3.45 102 75
Cole Sands R 2026 · 4.60 FIP 25 SP- 4.60 21.3%8.9%4.0%.358 3.05 25.5%19.0%196 -1.55 2.28 473 75
Garrett Stallings R 2026 · 4.24 FIP 25 SP- 4.24 20.7%8.6%3.3%.327 4.15 17.0%8.9%243 -0.09 3.20 595 74
Jackson Kowar R 2026 · 5.28 FIP 25 SP- 5.28 20.1%12.0%4.3%.356 4.71 20.4%6.0%104 -0.57 3.95 489 74
TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.41 FIP 25 SW 4.41 21.0%9.6%3.4%.273 4.29 23.1%14.9%172 -0.12 3.36 432 74
Keaton Winn R 2026 · 4.02 FIP 25 SP- 4.02 21.4%8.1%3.1%.310 4.33 19.7%11.9%111 +0.31 3.13 446 74
Ben Casparius R 2026 · 3.82 FIP 25 SP 3.82 24.0%12.9%2.0%.268 3.49 21.3%15.0%78 -0.33 3.49 364 74
Forrest Snow R 2027 · 4.80 FIP 26 SP- 4.80 16.1%8.2%3.7%.263 4.19 21.8%14.2%256 -0.61 3.14 406 73
Sean Harney R 2026 · 3.51 FIP 25 SP- 3.51 18.2%9.8%1.3%.285 4.69 16.5%5.1%59 +1.18 3.51 123 73
AJ Blubaugh R 2026 · 4.54 FIP 25 SP- 4.54 21.5%12.5%3.0%.276 4.11 23.6%11.8%60 -0.43 1.59 429 73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

PlayerYrsIP/yrK%BB%HR/9ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION411422.0%9.9%1.264.65
James Kaprielian ('23)310520.5%9.6%1.264.58
Nate Karns ('17)39624.2%9.3%1.224.24
Félix Hernández ('19)513420.0%8.1%1.394.48
Jason Vargas ('19)411618.5%8.2%1.384.57
Tom Koehler ('17)314618.1%10.2%1.244.62
Kyle Wright ('23)38322.4%8.9%1.123.97