David Sandlin — OGILVIE

David Sandlin P Charlotte Knights

Age 25 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 0.8 · 2027 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%21.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4050

CTRL4050

CMD4045

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p3222.8%

p5222.6%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$4M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$4M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	4.0%	3.51	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	4.0%	3.51	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	32.1%	6.6%	25.5%	3.3%	3.51	3.06	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	26.1%	8.2%	17.8%	6.7%	5.34	5.64	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	26.1%	8.2%	17.8%	6.7%	5.34	5.64	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	33.2%	7.3%	25.9%	5.7%	5.34	4.36	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.4%	4.50	3.94	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.4%	4.50	3.94	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	23.4%	8.8%	14.7%	2.2%	4.50	3.44	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	3	25	106	24	12	6	60%	4.9	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	5.7%	6.93	5.78	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	21	19	94	398	99	46	10	90%	4.5	21.0%	10.1%	10.8%	2.7%	3.35	4.12	—
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	21	19	94	398	99	46	10	90%	4.5	21.0%	10.1%	10.8%	2.7%	3.35	4.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	CWS	2	2	4	22	9	5	0	100%	2.1	40.9%	22.7%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.52	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	CWS	14	14	65	270	66	29	4	100%	4.6	24.4%	10.7%	13.7%	1.5%	2.22	3.21	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	CWS	5	3	25	106	24	12	6	60%	4.9	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	5.7%	6.93	5.73	-0.2
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	CWS	5	3	25	106	24	12	6	60%	4.9	22.6%	11.3%	11.3%	5.7%	6.93	5.73	-0.2
ROS	25	MLB MLE	CWS	2	2	11	48	10	5	1	100%	5.7	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.20	4.20	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB CTX	CWS	2	2	11	46	10	4	1	100%	5.5	21.0%	9.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.23	4.23	+0.1
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	CWS	—	—	105	446	109	51	11	—	—	24.5%	11.3%	13.1%	2.6%	3.44	4.13	+1.0
FULL	25	MLB A+C	CWS	—	—	36	152	109	51	12	—	—	71.6%	33.2%	38.4%	7.5%	10.06	5.40	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	133	562	122	53	20	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.5%	4.76	4.75	+0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	135	570	124	53	20	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.5%	4.74	4.75	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	22	22	135	570	123	54	20	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.77	4.81	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	21	21	129	544	116	52	20	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.7%	4.86	4.92	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	20	20	121	512	108	51	20	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	3.9%	5.01	5.10	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	126	532	116	50	19	100%	6.0	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.5%	4.79	4.78	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	128	540	117	51	19	100%	6.1	21.7%	9.4%	12.3%	3.6%	4.77	4.78	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	21	21	128	540	117	51	20	100%	6.1	21.6%	9.4%	12.2%	3.6%	4.80	4.84	+0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	20	20	122	515	110	50	19	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.6%	11.8%	3.8%	4.90	4.96	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	19	19	115	486	102	48	19	100%	6.1	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	4.0%	5.05	5.14	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	109	657	2774	598	267	104	98%	5.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.7%	4.93	4.56	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	845	182	81	32	98%	5.9	21.5%	9.6%	11.9%	3.7%	4.93	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		86	66	326	1380	305	120	49	77%	3.8	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.09	4.30	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	40	200	847	187	73	30	77%	3.8	22.1%	8.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.09	4.30	+0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Sandlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.56	21.0%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.77	21.7%	12.3%	403	+0.21	—	—	—
Buck Farmer R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	19.5%	8.7%	3.2%	.309	3.78	20.9%	12.5%	309	-0.51	3.16	907	82
Carson Seymour R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP-	3.96	19.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.292	4.55	18.9%	9.6%	348	+0.59	3.39	572	81
Kyle Dowdy R 2018 · 4.51 FIP	25	SP-	4.51	18.7%	10.0%	3.1%	.344	4.88	18.4%	4.5%	125	+0.37	2.98	606	81
Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	20.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.309	3.50	21.1%	13.0%	142	-0.21	1.87	251	81
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.59	18.4%	8.7%	178	+1.86	3.73	274	80
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	80
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	80
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	25	SP-	4.90	19.1%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.05	22.7%	14.3%	222	-0.85	3.90	538	79
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	79
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	79
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	20.9%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.85	20.0%	13.6%	140	-0.63	2.39	485	79
Forrest Snow R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	26	SP-	5.03	16.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.263	4.14	21.8%	14.2%	256	-0.89	3.02	406	78
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	78
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	77
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.07	22.5%	13.4%	138	-1.14	3.38	292	77
Chris Ellis R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP-	3.84	19.3%	7.3%	2.6%	.284	5.30	19.2%	7.2%	165	+1.46	3.84	780	77
Bubba Derby R 2019 · 5.42 FIP	25	SP-	5.42	18.0%	10.1%	4.7%	.287	5.14	19.4%	11.0%	71	-0.28	3.68	550	77
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	77
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	76
Jacob Turner R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	15.9%	7.8%	2.8%	.338	4.63	15.0%	5.3%	209	+0.34	4.29	340	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	128	21.4%	9.5%	1.37	4.78
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38