David Sandlin

P Charlotte Knights

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.9 · 2028

Overview

AAASP40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	18	18	57	5.34	4.36	33.2%	7.3%	—	K 26.1% · BB 8.2% · FIP 5.64
2025	24	MIX2 levels	32	14	106	4.50	3.44	23.4%	8.8%	—	K 19.2% · BB 9.1% · FIP 3.93
2026	25	MIX3 levels	24	22	110	3.36	3.59	25.1%	10.2%	2.4	K 22.1% · BB 8.9% · FIP 3.78
2027PROJ	26	MLBCWS	7	7	43	4.20	4.35	23.5%	9.2%	0.5
2028PROJ83% MLB	27	MLBCWS	10	10	62	4.34	4.41	23.3%	9.2%	0.7
2029PROJ87% MLB	28	MLBCWS	11	11	67	4.42	4.48	23.1%	9.2%	0.7

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.174First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$2M2032Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo78

K%60

xwOBA vs55

Form3.45 ERA (proj 4.20) · K 26.2% (proj 23.5%) · BB 1.6% (proj 9.2%) ▲▲ last 60d · 16 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 6.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 85%

CompsRicky Castro (age 24) · Erik Hiljus (age 28) · Matt Wise (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.20

FIP4.35

K%23.5%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p6024.0%

xwOBA vs

p550.307

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.174 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	-0.52	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	1	1	2	7	3	0	0	100%	2.0	42.9%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.10	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	24.8%	6.5%	18.3%	4.0%	3.51	4.05	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	67	271	87	18	9	100%	4.8	32.1%	6.6%	25.5%	3.3%	3.51	3.06	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	26.1%	8.2%	17.8%	6.7%	5.34	5.64	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	26.1%	8.2%	17.8%	6.7%	5.34	5.64	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	18	57	247	82	18	14	100%	3.2	33.2%	7.3%	25.9%	5.7%	5.34	4.36	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	2.4%	4.50	3.93	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	19.2%	9.1%	10.1%	2.4%	4.50	3.93	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	14	106	457	107	40	10	44%	3.3	23.4%	8.8%	14.7%	2.2%	4.50	3.44	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	110	459	115	47	11	92%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.6%	3.36	3.78	+2.1
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	22	110	459	115	47	11	92%	4.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.6%	3.36	3.78	+2.1
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	22	110	459	115	47	11	92%	4.6	25.1%	10.2%	14.8%	2.4%	3.36	3.59	+2.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			8	6	40	167	40	13	7	75%	5.0	24.0%	7.8%	16.2%	4.2%	5.58	4.34	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CWS	7	7	43	182	43	17	6	100%	6.1	23.5%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	4.20	4.35	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CWS	12	12	75	317	74	29	10	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.2%	14.2%	3.1%	4.31	4.38	+0.9
2029	28	MLB MLE	CWS	13	13	76	322	74	30	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.2%	4.39	4.45	+0.8
2030	29	MLB MLE	CWS	11	11	69	290	65	27	10	100%	6.3	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.3%	4.52	4.60	+0.6
2031	30	MLB MLE	CWS	10	10	58	244	53	23	9	100%	5.8	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.69	4.80	+0.4
2032	31	MLB MLE	CWS	8	8	45	191	40	19	7	100%	5.7	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.8%	4.90	5.03	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	62	262	61	24	8	100%	6.2	23.3%	9.2%	14.2%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	CWS	11	11	67	283	65	26	9	100%	6.1	23.1%	9.2%	13.9%	3.3%	4.42	4.48	+0.7
2030	29	MLB CTX	CWS	10	10	62	262	59	24	9	100%	6.2	22.4%	9.3%	13.1%	3.4%	4.55	4.63	+0.6
2031	30	MLB CTX	CWS	9	9	53	224	49	21	8	100%	5.9	21.7%	9.6%	12.1%	3.6%	4.72	4.83	+0.4
2032	31	MLB CTX	CWS	7	7	42	177	37	18	7	100%	6.0	21.0%	10.0%	11.0%	3.8%	4.94	5.07	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	54	326	1371	310	126	48	96%	5.8	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.5%	4.69	4.28	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	842	190	77	29	96%	5.9	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.5%	4.69	4.28	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		89	69	342	1441	324	120	50	78%	3.8	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.5%	4.06	4.18	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	40	200	844	190	70	29	78%	3.8	22.5%	8.4%	14.1%	3.5%	4.06	4.18	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAACharlotte Knights · 65 IPFIP 3.21 → 3.44 (+0.23)K% 24.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.44%	—	×0.860	21.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.74%	—	×0.900	9.67%
HR / BF /BF	1.48%	÷1.000	×1.100	1.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.21 → 3.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 4 IPFIP 2.52 → 3.75 (+1.23)K% 40.9% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.91%	—	×0.770	31.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.73%	—	×1.150	26.14%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.52 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 82 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.69 (+0.59)K% 25.4% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.44%	—	×0.810	20.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.99%	—	×1.100	8.79%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.119	×1.200	2.22%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 24 IPFIP 4.38 → 4.61 (+0.23)K% 17.6% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.65%	—	×0.860	15.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.92%	—	×0.900	9.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.52%	÷0.984	×1.100	2.82%

Result: FIP 4.38 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 32 IPFIP 3.86 → 5.31 (+1.45)K% 37.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.31%	—	×0.770	28.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.21%	—	×1.150	9.44%
HR / BF /BF	5.22%	÷1.043	×1.250	6.26%

Result: FIP 3.86 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 26 IPFIP 4.89 → 6.04 (+1.14)K% 28.3% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.32%	—	×0.810	22.94%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.19%	—	×1.100	6.81%
HR / BF /BF	6.19%	÷1.018	×1.200	7.30%

Result: FIP 4.89 → 6.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AColumbia Fireflies · 59 IPFIP 2.83 → 4.05 (+1.22)K% 33.5% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.47%	—	×0.740	24.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.51%	—	×1.180	6.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷1.089	×1.300	4.05%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 118).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 4.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Quad Cities River Bandits · 8 IPFIP 4.55 → 5.59 (+1.04)K% 22.9% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.86%	—	×0.770	17.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.150	16.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.033	×1.250	3.46%

Result: FIP 4.55 → 5.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
David Sandlin (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.47	23.0%	13.7%	220	+0.12	—	—	—
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Erik Hiljus R 2001 · 3.35 FIP	28	SP-	3.35	23.1%	6.9%	2.4%	.321	6.07	14.1%	4.4%	46	+2.72	3.35	112	78
Matt Wise R 2001 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	23.7%	8.1%	5.2%	.271	3.50	13.5%	7.2%	53	-1.48	3.33	302	75
Dylan DeLucia R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	23	SP	3.88	21.6%	7.4%	3.0%	.241	5.29	18.0%	7.2%	197	+1.41	3.88	232	75
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	73
Peter Van Loon R 2024 · 3.27 FIP	25	SP	3.27	25.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.303	4.20	21.0%	10.9%	53	+0.93	2.51	256	73
Jake Lee R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	26	SP	3.76	20.5%	9.7%	2.1%	.362	5.42	16.1%	9.6%	113	+1.66	2.78	181	73
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.85	15.2%	1.3%	72	+1.82	3.51	261	72
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	72
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	72
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	72
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	72
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	72
Braxton Bragg R 2024 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	22.3%	6.4%	3.0%	.325	2.58	26.2%	18.1%	59	-1.12	2.58	155	72
Brendan Beck R 2023 · 3.19 FIP	24	SP	3.19	22.5%	6.7%	2.1%	.289	3.67	22.0%	14.9%	279	+0.48	3.19	310	71
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	71
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	71
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	71
Ramon Ramirez R 2008 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP-	4.31	20.0%	10.5%	2.9%	.200	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	182	71
Ryan Jennings R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	20.4%	10.4%	1.7%	.286	4.93	25.0%	10.3%	58	+1.33	3.43	142	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	60	22.7%	9.2%	1.31	4.58
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*