David Sandlin
P
Portland Sea Dogs
+0.3
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 25
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.8 · 2027
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.2%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%11.9%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | ACL Royals | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Quad Cities River Bandits | 14 | 14 | 67 | 271 | 87 | 18 | 9 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 3.51 | 4.09 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 18 | 18 | 57 | 247 | 82 | 18 | 14 | 26.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.34 | 5.65 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 32 | 14 | 106 | 457 | 107 | 40 | 10 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 4.50 | 4.00 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.57 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 94 | 396 | 85 | 36 | 12 | 21.5% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.52 | 4.51 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 97 | 410 | 88 | 37 | 13 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 89 | 37 | 13 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 95 | 402 | 86 | 36 | 13 | 21.4% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.53 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 17 | 17 | 92 | 390 | 83 | 36 | 13 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.62 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 79 | 35 | 12 | 20.9% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.65 | 4.69 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 75 | 34 | 12 | 20.7% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 4.73 | 4.78 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 15 | 82 | 345 | 70 | 33 | 12 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.82 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 78 | 328 | 72 | 29 | 12 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 4.76 | 4.72 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 73 | 309 | 67 | 28 | 11 | 21.6% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 4.81 | 4.84 | +0.2 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 68 | 288 | 61 | 27 | 11 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 4.91 | 4.97 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 47 | 232 | 982 | 223 | 81 | 39 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 41 | 200 | 847 | 192 | 70 | 34 | 22.7% | 8.3% | 4.0% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| David Sandlin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.51 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 288 | -0.06 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 89 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 89 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 89 |
| Blake Goldsberry R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.39 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 2.2% | .257 | 5.29 | 23.6% | 12.0% | 44 | +1.90 | 3.39 | 117 | 88 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 87 |
| Orlando Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.53 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .380 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 101 | -0.04 | 4.37 | 119 | 86 |
| Mitchell Stumpo R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.90 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .299 | 5.28 | 22.4% | 6.5% | 121 | +1.38 | 3.90 | 158 | 86 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 25.5% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .340 | 4.39 | 22.5% | 13.6% | 185 | +0.65 | 3.74 | 223 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.25 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.8% | .256 | 4.33 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.08 | 3.88 | 180 | 85 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .291 | 3.65 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | +0.16 | 3.16 | 153 | 85 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 84 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 84 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.41 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .311 | 5.44 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.41 | 152 | 84 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.14 | 2.78 | 181 | 84 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 84 |
| Will Vest R 2025 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 84 |
| Boby Johnson R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.69 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 4.0% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 145 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 83 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $2M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.4 | $2M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $8M | $18M | +$10M | ||