Ryan Murphy

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	AASF	11	11	43	3.35	3.15	25.6%	7.8%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.6% · FIP 3.81
2025	25	MIX2 levels	8	3	19	5.59	4.50	14.4%	10.0%	—	K 10.5% · BB 8.9% · FIP 5.14
2026	26	MIX2 levels	47	1	65	6.54	5.30	23.4%	12.7%	—	K 19.8% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.51
2027PROJ	27	MLBSTL	3	0	3	5.19	5.19	19.3%	10.9%	-0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBSTL	13	0	14	5.15	5.19	19.6%	10.9%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsTyler Yates (age 26) · Colby Morris (age 25) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.19

FIP5.19

K%19.3%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP33

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	107	417	164	26	12	100%	5.1	29.4%	7.3%	22.1%	3.7%	2.52	3.56	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	107	417	164	26	12	100%	5.1	39.3%	6.2%	33.1%	2.9%	2.52	2.22	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	9	42	184	57	23	5	82%	3.8	29.0%	11.0%	17.9%	0.9%	4.68	2.54	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	9	42	184	57	23	5	82%	3.8	31.0%	12.5%	18.5%	2.7%	4.68	3.57	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	27	107	465	107	51	15	93%	3.7	18.6%	12.1%	6.6%	4.3%	4.36	5.40	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	27	107	465	107	51	15	93%	3.7	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	11	11	43	180	46	14	4	100%	3.9	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.5%	3.35	3.81	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	11	11	43	180	46	14	4	100%	3.9	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.5%	3.35	3.81	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	11	11	43	180	46	14	4	100%	3.9	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	2.2%	3.35	3.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	19	90	13	9	2	38%	2.4	10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	3.3%	5.59	5.14	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	19	90	13	9	2	38%	2.4	10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	3.3%	5.59	5.14	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	19	90	13	9	2	38%	2.4	14.4%	10.0%	4.4%	2.2%	5.59	4.50	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	65	308	72	39	13	2%	1.4	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	4.7%	6.54	5.51	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	65	308	72	39	13	2%	1.4	19.8%	11.7%	8.1%	4.7%	6.54	5.51	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	65	308	72	39	13	2%	1.4	23.4%	12.7%	10.7%	4.2%	6.54	5.30	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	STL	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.9%	8.4%	3.6%	5.19	5.19	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	31	0	32	136	27	15	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	3.6%	5.15	5.19	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	13	0	14	59	12	6	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	3.6%	5.15	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	11	6	2	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	3.6%	5.15	4.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	88	29	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	3.6%	5.15	4.81	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		127	72	384	1644	370	166	59	57%	3.0	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.20	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	38	200	856	193	87	31	57%	3.0	22.5%	10.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.20	4.45	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 50 IPFIP 5.28 → 5.57 (+0.29)K% 21.2% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.20%	—	×0.860	18.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×0.900	12.60%
HR / BF /BF	4.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.40%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.28 → 5.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 14 IPFIP 4.05 → 5.23 (+1.18)K% 32.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.76%	—	×0.810	26.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.90%	—	×1.100	7.59%
HR / BF /BF	5.17%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.21%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.05 → 5.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 14 IPFIP 4.80 → 5.14 (+0.34)K% 12.9% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.90%	—	×0.810	10.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.06%	—	×1.100	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷1.183	×1.200	3.27%

Result: FIP 4.80 → 5.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASan Jose Giants · 5 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.12 (+0.72)K% 17.9% → 13.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.86%	—	×0.740	13.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×1.180	16.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.358	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 172).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 43 IPFIP 3.15 → 3.81 (+0.67)K% 25.6% → 20.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.56%	—	×0.810	20.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.78%	—	×1.100	8.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.22%	÷1.062	×1.200	2.51%

Result: FIP 3.15 → 3.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 107 IPFIP 4.32 → 5.40 (+1.08)K% 23.0% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.810	18.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.97%	—	×1.100	12.06%
HR / BF /BF	3.23%	÷0.906	×1.200	4.27%

Result: FIP 4.32 → 5.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Eugene Emeralds · 31 IPFIP 1.58 → 2.54 (+0.96)K% 37.6% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.60%	—	×0.770	28.95%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.60%	—	×1.150	11.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.80%	÷1.120	×1.250	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 1.58 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 9 IPFIP 7.04 → 8.28 (+1.24)K% 15.6% → 12.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.56%	—	×0.810	12.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	22.22%	—	×1.100	24.44%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷0.929	×1.200	5.74%

Result: FIP 7.04 → 8.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.19	19.3%	10.9%	3.6%	—	5.19	19.6%	8.7%	32	+0.00	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	82
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	80
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	75
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	75
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	74
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Danny Kirwin R 2024 · 4.19 FIP	24	SW	4.19	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	5.33	16.8%	4.6%	91	+1.14	4.16	161	73
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	73
Zach Stewart R 2015 · 4.43 FIP	28	SP-	4.43	14.4%	8.3%	2.7%	.322	5.17	11.7%	2.1%	51	+0.74	4.27	194	72
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	72
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	72
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	72
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	72
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	19.4%	10.9%	1.39	5.17
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*