Ryan Murphy — OGILVIE

Ryan Murphy P Memphis Redbirds

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%18.4%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%8.7%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	107	417	164	26	12	100%	5.1	29.4%	7.3%	22.1%	3.7%	2.52	3.56	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	107	417	164	26	12	100%	5.1	39.3%	6.2%	33.1%	2.9%	2.52	2.22	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	11	9	42	184	57	23	5	82%	3.8	29.0%	11.0%	17.9%	0.9%	4.68	2.54	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	11	9	42	184	57	23	5	82%	3.8	31.0%	12.5%	18.5%	2.7%	4.68	3.57	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	27	107	465	107	51	15	93%	3.7	18.6%	12.1%	6.6%	4.3%	4.36	5.40	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	27	107	465	107	51	15	93%	3.7	18.6%	12.1%	6.6%	4.3%	4.36	5.40	—
2023	23	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	29	27	107	465	107	51	15	93%	3.7	23.0%	11.0%	12.0%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	11	11	43	180	46	14	4	100%	3.9	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.5%	3.35	3.81	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	11	11	43	180	46	14	4	100%	3.9	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.5%	3.35	3.81	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	11	11	43	180	46	14	4	100%	3.9	25.6%	7.8%	17.8%	2.2%	3.35	3.15	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	19	90	13	9	2	38%	2.4	10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	3.3%	5.59	5.14	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	3	19	90	13	9	2	38%	2.4	10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	3.3%	5.59	5.14	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	3	19	90	13	9	2	38%	2.4	14.4%	10.0%	4.4%	2.2%	5.59	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	44	1	60	285	65	37	12	2%	1.4	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	4.7%	6.41	5.63	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	44	1	60	285	65	37	12	2%	1.4	18.8%	12.0%	6.8%	4.7%	6.41	5.63	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	STL	10	0	14	58	19	4	3	0%	1.4	32.8%	6.9%	25.9%	5.2%	5.02	4.05	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	STL	34	1	46	227	46	33	9	3%	1.4	20.3%	14.5%	5.7%	4.0%	6.85	5.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	STL	55	0	58	246	46	24	8	0%	1.1	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.83	-0.2
2028	28	MLB MLE	STL	54	0	56	239	46	23	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.87	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	STL	24	0	25	106	20	10	3	0%	1.0	18.9%	9.7%	9.2%	3.1%	4.81	4.83	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	STL	33	0	35	148	28	15	5	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.8%	9.3%	3.2%	4.83	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	254	48	25	8	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.2%	4.82	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	83	27	0%	1.1	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	3.2%	4.82	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		124	72	380	1621	363	164	58	58%	3.1	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.6%	4.15	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	38	200	854	191	87	30	58%	3.1	22.4%	10.1%	12.3%	3.6%	4.15	4.45	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Murphy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	18.4%	9.7%	3.1%	—	4.85	19.0%	9.2%	115	+0.01	—	—	—
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	77
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	76
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	76
Alfonso Sanchez R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	27	SP-	4.96	12.5%	9.1%	3.2%	.346	4.85	14.0%	5.3%	138	-0.11	4.51	224	75
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
Phil Klein R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	26	SW	3.86	18.1%	11.0%	1.6%	.280	3.10	24.5%	17.9%	97	-0.76	3.10	178	74
Zac Kristofak R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	25	SW	4.10	15.5%	8.9%	2.1%	.252	4.70	10.8%	5.0%	19	+0.60	4.10	168	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	74
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	74
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	74
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	73
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	73
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	73
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	73
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	73
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	72
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	45	18.9%	9.8%	1.22	4.82
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58