Kyle Brnovich
P
Reading Fightin Phils
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.59
FIP5.59
K%19.2%
BB%13.9%
K-BB%5.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 95 | 390 | 123 | 26 | 14 | 83% | 4.1 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 17.6% | 3.2% | 3.32 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 95 | 390 | 123 | 26 | 14 | 83% | 4.1 | 31.5% | 6.7% | 24.9% | 3.6% | 3.32 | 3.25 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 2 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 10.5% | 18.4% | -7.9% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 5.99 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 2 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 10.5% | 18.4% | -7.9% | 2.6% | 5.62 | 6.35 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 6 | 26 | 108 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 75% | 3.2 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 4.50 | 5.84 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 8 | 6 | 26 | 108 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 75% | 3.2 | 31.5% | 6.5% | 25.0% | 4.6% | 4.50 | 3.79 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 19 | 11 | 75 | 312 | 77 | 28 | 16 | 58% | 3.9 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 3.96 | 4.92 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 19 | 11 | 75 | 312 | 77 | 28 | 16 | 58% | 3.9 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 5.1% | 3.96 | 4.94 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 83 | 392 | 91 | 49 | 15 | 83% | 3.6 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 7.34 | 5.49 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 19 | 83 | 392 | 91 | 49 | 15 | 83% | 3.6 | 23.2% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 7.34 | 5.02 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 16 | 14 | 69 | 309 | 58 | 28 | 17 | 88% | 4.3 | 15.2% | 10.0% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.23 | 6.70 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.2% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 5.59 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 5.59 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 134 | 583 | 111 | 66 | 27 | — | — | 19.0% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 5.92 | 6.17 | -1.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.2% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.59 | 5.21 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 54 | 38 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 10 | 10 | 62 | 263 | 51 | 36 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.58 | 5.68 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 4 | 4 | 21 | 89 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.54 | 5.60 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.58 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 44 | 31 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.56 | 5.26 | -0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 115 | 33 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.4% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 5.56 | 5.26 | +0.3 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 71 | 357 | 1549 | 314 | 161 | 71 | 78% | 3.9 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 5.10 | 5.20 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 40 | 200 | 869 | 176 | 90 | 40 | 78% | 3.9 | 20.3% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 5.10 | 5.20 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Brnovich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.59 | 19.2% | 13.9% | 3.6% | — | 5.64 | 19.4% | 5.8% | 128 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.66 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 2.8% | .380 | 7.26 | 10.9% | 1.2% | 25 | +2.60 | 3.26 | 118 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2025 · 6.04 FIP | 27 | SP- | 6.04 | 14.5% | 10.3% | 5.2% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 239 | 74 |
| Brian Edgington R 2024 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 72 |
| Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.77 | 15.5% | 10.2% | 4.9% | .298 | 4.76 | 19.0% | 12.0% | 249 | -1.01 | 2.90 | 806 | 72 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.98 | 20.6% | 12.8% | 3.6% | .291 | 5.54 | 14.1% | -1.8% | 25 | +0.56 | 4.39 | 353 | 72 |
| Colin Rea R 2026 · 5.72 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.72 | 17.6% | 11.3% | 4.9% | .344 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 9.8% | 198 | -1.62 | 2.67 | 1,073 | 72 |
| Chris Ellis R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.31 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 4.4% | .274 | 6.16 | 12.5% | -2.7% | 64 | +0.85 | 3.85 | 780 | 72 |
| Jacob Turner R 2025 · 4.69 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.69 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 70 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 5.66 FIP | 28 | SP | 5.66 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 4.5% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 299 | 70 |
| Kenny Serwa R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.75 | 14.9% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 182 | 70 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 69 |
| Blair Henley R 2025 · 5.90 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.90 | 17.6% | 14.5% | 4.5% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 187 | 69 |
| Brady Rodgers R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 28 | SP- | 5.58 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.98 | 354 | 69 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2029 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.64 | 12.4% | 11.6% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.73 | 11.7% | 2.0% | 175 | +0.09 | 4.49 | 269 | 68 |
| Connor Schultz R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.85 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 171 | 68 |
| Alex Blackford R 2024 · 5.71 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.71 | 14.9% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 229 | 68 |
| Darien Smith R 2024 · 4.67 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.0% | 12.9% | 2.8% | .212 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 102 | 68 |
| Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.77 | 15.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .261 | 5.16 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 173 | +0.39 | 4.66 | 261 | 68 |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.94 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .279 | 5.79 | 16.8% | 5.6% | 41 | +0.85 | 3.68 | 244 | 67 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 66 | 19.3% | 13.7% | 1.44 | 5.57 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |