Kyle Brnovich

P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	AABowie Baysox	19	11	75	3.96	4.94	24.7%	9.0%	—	K 20.0% · BB 9.9% · FIP 5.37
2025	27	MIX2 levels	23	19	83	7.34	5.02	23.2%	12.5%	—	K 19.1% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.32
2026	28	AAPHI	17	15	74	6.66	5.88	18.6%	8.4%	—	K 15.1% · BB 9.2% · FIP 6.76
2027PROJ	29	MLBPHI	1	1	1	5.81	5.81	16.8%	11.4%	-0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBPHI	3	3	17	5.77	5.84	17.1%	11.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBPHI	4	4	23	5.82	5.93	17.2%	11.7%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsTravis Smith (age 29) · Zack Segovia (age 32) · David Griffin (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.81

FIP5.81

K%16.8%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%5.4%

Proj IP69

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 69 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	95	390	123	26	14	83%	4.1	25.1%	7.5%	17.6%	3.7%	3.32	3.95	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	95	390	123	26	14	83%	4.1	31.5%	6.7%	24.9%	3.6%	3.32	3.25	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	2	2	8	38	4	7	1	100%	4.0	10.5%	18.4%	-7.9%	2.6%	5.62	5.99	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	2	2	8	38	4	7	1	100%	4.0	10.5%	18.4%	-7.9%	2.6%	5.62	6.35	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	6	26	108	34	7	5	75%	3.2	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	7.9%	4.50	6.47	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	6	26	108	34	7	5	75%	3.2	31.5%	6.5%	25.0%	4.6%	4.50	3.79	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	19	11	75	312	77	28	16	58%	3.9	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	4.9%	3.96	5.37	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	19	11	75	312	77	28	16	58%	3.9	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	4.9%	3.96	5.37	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	19	11	75	312	77	28	16	58%	3.9	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	5.1%	3.96	4.94	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	83	392	91	49	15	83%	3.6	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	4.3%	7.34	5.32	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	83	392	91	49	15	83%	3.6	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	4.3%	7.34	5.32	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	83	392	91	49	15	83%	3.6	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	3.8%	7.34	5.02	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	17	15	74	333	62	28	19	88%	4.4	15.1%	9.2%	5.8%	6.8%	6.66	6.76	—
2026	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	17	15	74	333	62	28	19	88%	4.4	15.1%	9.2%	5.8%	6.8%	6.66	6.76	—
2026	28	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	17	15	74	333	62	28	19	88%	4.4	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	5.7%	6.66	5.88	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	PHI	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.8%	11.4%	5.4%	4.2%	5.81	5.81	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	54	227	39	26	10	100%	6.0	17.1%	11.5%	5.6%	4.3%	5.77	5.84	-0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	PHI	7	7	45	190	33	22	8	100%	6.4	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	4.4%	5.82	5.93	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	3	3	17	72	12	8	3	100%	5.7	17.1%	11.5%	5.6%	4.3%	5.77	5.84	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	23	97	17	11	4	100%	5.8	17.2%	11.7%	5.5%	4.4%	5.82	5.93	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	7	40	168	29	19	7	100%	5.7	17.2%	11.6%	5.6%	4.4%	5.80	5.51	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	145	95	35	100%	6.0	17.2%	11.6%	5.6%	4.4%	5.80	5.51	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		92	72	362	1573	316	153	79	78%	3.9	20.1%	9.7%	10.3%	5.0%	5.20	5.39	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	870	175	85	44	78%	3.9	20.1%	9.7%	10.3%	5.0%	5.20	5.39	-1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAReading Fightin Phils · 74 IPFIP 5.72 → 6.76 (+1.03)K% 18.6% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.62%	—	×0.810	15.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.41%	—	×1.100	9.25%
HR / BF /BF	5.71%	÷1.000	×1.200	6.85%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.72 → 6.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 80 IPFIP 5.04 → 5.32 (+0.28)K% 22.2% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.22%	—	×0.860	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.96%	—	×0.900	11.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.97%	÷1.017	×1.100	4.29%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 5.04 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABowie Baysox · 75 IPFIP 4.97 → 5.37 (+0.40)K% 24.7% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.68%	—	×0.810	19.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.97%	—	×1.100	9.87%
HR / BF /BF	5.13%	÷1.249	×1.200	4.93%

Result: FIP 4.97 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AABowie Baysox · 14 IPFIP 5.91 → 6.47 (+0.56)K% 30.2% → 24.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.16%	—	×0.810	24.43%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.94%	—	×1.100	8.73%
HR / BF /BF	7.94%	÷1.208	×1.200	7.88%

Result: FIP 5.91 → 6.47, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 7 IPFIP -0.34 → 0.45 (+0.79)K% 40.7% → 31.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.74%	—	×0.770	31.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.150	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.912	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP -0.34 → 0.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 8 IPFIP 5.99 → 6.41 (+0.42)K% 10.5% → 9.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	10.53%	—	×0.880	9.26%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.42%	—	×1.050	19.34%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.970	×1.100	2.98%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 5.99 → 6.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 61 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.96 (+0.45)K% 29.5% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.53%	—	×0.810	23.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.91%	—	×1.100	6.50%
HR / BF /BF	3.94%	÷1.258	×1.200	3.75%

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 34 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.92 (+1.16)K% 35.3% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.29%	—	×0.770	27.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.09%	—	×1.150	9.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.94%	÷1.041	×1.250	3.53%

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Brnovich (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.81	16.8%	11.4%	4.2%	—	5.88	17.2%	5.6%	99	+0.07	—	—	—
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	82
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	81
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.83 FIP	27	SP-	5.83	14.2%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	77
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	76
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	76
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	73
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	72
Travis Driskill R 2002 · 4.95 FIP	30	SP-	4.95	13.2%	8.0%	3.6%	.291	4.26	15.3%	12.0%	48	-0.69	4.26	181	71
Robert Ellis R 2001 · 4.84 FIP	30	SP	4.84	9.9%	7.7%	2.9%	.287	8.08	9.0%	-2.2%	18	+3.24	4.84	110	71
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	70
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	69
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	69
Erik Hiljus R 2002 · 6.07 FIP	29	SP	6.07	14.1%	9.7%	5.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.35	112	69
Kyle Friedrichs R 2021 · 4.73 FIP	29	SP-	4.73	13.9%	6.2%	3.7%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	603	68
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	68
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	67
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	67
Luis Mateo R 2019 · 5.55 FIP	29	SP-	5.55	8.6%	13.4%	2.7%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	160	67
Aaron Brooks R 2019 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.0%	7.1%	3.9%	.281	4.38	15.8%	8.8%	70	-0.34	3.71	879	67
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	17.0%	11.5%	1.66	5.80
Dave Stevens ('00)	1.3	50	14.6%	11.3%	1.76	6.02
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Phil Hennigan ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.4	70	20.9%*	10.4%*	1.50*	4.95*