Kyle Brnovich — OGILVIE

Kyle Brnovich P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.53

FIP5.53

K%18.4%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	95	390	123	26	14	83%	4.1	25.1%	7.5%	17.6%	3.7%	3.32	3.95	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	95	390	123	26	14	83%	4.1	31.5%	6.7%	24.9%	3.6%	3.32	3.25	—
2022	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	2	2	8	38	4	7	1	100%	4.0	10.5%	18.4%	-7.9%	2.6%	5.62	5.99	—
2022	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	2	2	8	38	4	7	1	100%	4.0	10.5%	18.4%	-7.9%	2.6%	5.62	6.35	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	6	26	108	34	7	5	75%	3.2	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	7.9%	4.50	6.47	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	8	6	26	108	34	7	5	75%	3.2	24.4%	8.7%	15.7%	7.9%	4.50	6.47	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	8	6	26	108	34	7	5	75%	3.2	31.5%	6.5%	25.0%	4.6%	4.50	3.79	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	19	11	75	312	77	28	16	58%	3.9	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	4.9%	3.96	5.37	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	19	11	75	312	77	28	16	58%	3.9	20.0%	9.9%	10.1%	4.9%	3.96	5.37	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	19	11	75	312	77	28	16	58%	3.9	24.7%	9.0%	15.7%	5.1%	3.96	4.94	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	83	392	91	49	15	83%	3.6	18.4%	11.7%	6.8%	4.3%	7.34	5.38	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	19	83	392	91	49	15	83%	3.6	18.4%	11.7%	6.8%	4.3%	7.34	5.38	—
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	19	83	392	91	49	15	83%	3.6	23.2%	12.5%	10.7%	3.8%	7.34	5.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	17	15	74	333	62	28	19	88%	4.4	15.1%	9.2%	5.8%	6.8%	6.66	6.76	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	17	15	74	333	62	28	19	88%	4.4	15.1%	9.2%	5.8%	6.8%	6.66	6.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	PHI	17	15	74	333	62	28	19	88%	4.4	18.6%	8.4%	10.2%	5.7%	6.66	5.72	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	PHI	1	1	6	25	5	3	1	100%	5.8	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	3.7%	5.53	5.53	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	80	358	67	31	20	—	—	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	5.6%	6.58	6.67	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	66	280	52	34	11	100%	6.0	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.8%	5.49	5.54	-0.5
2028	30	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	62	263	49	32	10	100%	6.2	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.9%	5.54	5.63	-0.5
2027	29	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	21	89	17	11	3	100%	5.2	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	3.8%	5.49	5.54	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	32	135	25	17	5	100%	6.4	18.6%	12.3%	6.3%	3.9%	5.54	5.63	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	53	223	42	27	9	100%	5.9	18.6%	12.3%	6.4%	3.9%	5.52	5.21	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	159	102	34	100%	6.0	18.6%	12.3%	6.4%	3.9%	5.52	5.21	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		92	72	362	1573	313	153	79	78%	3.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	5.0%	5.20	5.40	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	40	200	870	173	85	44	78%	3.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	5.0%	5.20	5.40	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Brnovich (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.53	18.4%	12.3%	3.7%	—	5.58	18.6%	6.4%	128	+0.05	—	—	—
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	78
Vanny Valenzuela R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.3%	11.3%	2.5%	.380	6.25	10.9%	1.2%	25	+1.71	3.26	118	77
David Griffin R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SP-	5.85	13.9%	9.2%	5.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	4.43	239	76
Clayton Mortensen R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	30	SP-	4.41	15.0%	12.6%	1.8%	.289	4.43	22.0%	10.3%	115	+0.02	4.31	221	75
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	74
Brady Rodgers R 2019 · 5.44 FIP	28	SP-	5.44	14.7%	9.0%	4.4%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	1.98	354	73
Chris Ellis R 2021 · 5.41 FIP	28	SP	5.41	19.6%	11.5%	4.6%	.274	6.19	11.8%	-1.3%	64	+0.78	3.84	780	72
Kris Medlen R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	29	SP-	4.82	15.4%	6.4%	4.0%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.35	4.59	261	72
M.D. Johnson R 2023 · 5.64 FIP	26	SP	5.64	16.4%	12.7%	4.2%	.254	3.52	14.6%	4.7%	67	-2.12	3.52	395	72
Omar Bencomo R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP-	4.50	18.9%	6.3%	4.0%	.333	4.48	14.9%	10.1%	186	-0.02	3.70	381	72
Jacob Turner R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	27	SP-	4.48	14.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	340	71
Matt Cain R 2015 · 4.88 FIP	30	SP-	4.88	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	4.87	15.2%	7.6%	214	-0.01	4.82	294	71
Daniel Guerrero R 2016 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP	4.81	12.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.328	4.93	11.7%	2.0%	175	+0.12	4.61	269	71
Daniel Corcino R 2019 · 5.83 FIP	28	SP	5.83	17.5%	12.2%	4.9%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	299	70
Colin Rea R 2018 · 5.61 FIP	28	SP	5.61	17.6%	11.3%	4.7%	.344	4.14	17.7%	9.8%	198	-1.47	2.57	1,112	70
Felipe Paulino R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	31	SP	4.55	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.93	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.38	4.55	150	70
Miguel Ruiz R 2015 · 5.77 FIP	29	SP-	5.77	8.8%	8.0%	4.4%	.346	5.60	10.6%	-0.4%	53	-0.17	5.60	117	70
Riley Thompson R 2023 · 5.81 FIP	27	SP-	5.81	17.8%	12.9%	4.7%	.284	4.53	17.0%	8.1%	107	-1.28	4.53	340	70
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	69
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	14.6%	9.8%	2.3%	.311	4.01	17.3%	6.4%	44	-0.36	4.01	272	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	66	18.6%	12.3%	1.48	5.52
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43