Kyle Brnovich
P
Reading Fightin Phils
+0.0
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AA
ERA5.25
FIP5.25
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.8%
BB%11.7%
K-BB%9.1%
IP71
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL4040
CMD4040
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 23 | 19 | 95 | 390 | 123 | 26 | 14 | 25.1% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 3.32 | 4.01 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 2 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 4 | 7 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.62 | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 8 | 6 | 26 | 108 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.50 | 6.60 | -0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 19 | 11 | 75 | 312 | 77 | 28 | 16 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 3.96 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 23 | 19 | 83 | 392 | 91 | 49 | 15 | 19.6% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 7.34 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 3 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 20.6% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 7.42 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 61 | 39 | 11 | 20.2% | 13.0% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 5.46 | -0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 84 | 355 | 75 | 42 | 13 | 21.0% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 5.77 | 5.31 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 60 | 37 | 11 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 58 | 36 | 11 | 20.4% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 5.34 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 34 | 10 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 5.35 | 5.40 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 53 | 33 | 10 | 20.2% | 12.6% | 3.8% | 5.40 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 60 | — | 60 | 251 | 50 | 32 | 10 | 19.9% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 5.49 | 5.55 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 56 | — | 56 | 239 | 47 | 31 | 10 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 4.0% | 5.59 | 5.66 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 43 | 30 | 9 | 19.1% | 13.2% | 4.1% | 5.71 | 5.79 | -0.5 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 39 | 28 | 9 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 4.2% | 5.84 | 5.92 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 78 | 60 | 301 | 1295 | 278 | 133 | 59 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 4.94 | 5.08 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 40 | 200 | 861 | 185 | 88 | 39 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 4.94 | 5.08 | +0.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Brnovich (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.46 | 20.2% | 13.0% | 3.7% | — | 5.39 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 202 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 88 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 84 |
| Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.58 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 2.8% | .309 | 5.45 | 8.6% | -4.8% | 43 | +0.87 | 3.47 | 160 | 84 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 84 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 83 |
| Mike Adams R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.39 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 109 | 83 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 82 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.38 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 82 |
| Wil Browning R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.45 | 17.9% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.14 | 162 | 81 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2029 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 81 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 81 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.30 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 5.1% | .248 | 3.57 | 22.6% | 12.4% | 27 | -1.73 | 3.57 | 157 | 81 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.92 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 179 | 80 |
| Brett McKinney R 2024 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.57 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 183 | 79 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 79 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.12 | 15.9% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 237 | 79 |
| Chris Roycroft R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.34 | 18.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 231 | 77 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.03 | 21.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% | .268 | 4.49 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 62 | -0.54 | 4.12 | 230 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.