Andrew Painter

P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 24 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.1 · 2029

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	19	MIX3 levels	22	22	104	1.56	1.46	38.7%	6.2%	—	K 29.6% · BB 7.3% · FIP 2.38
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	26	118	5.26	4.41	23.7%	9.0%	—	K 20.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.92
2026	23	MIX2 levels	30	28	150	5.27	4.32	21.4%	8.4%	1.9	K 20.9% · BB 8.3% · FIP 4.22
2027PROJ	24	MLBPHI	18	18	99	4.45	4.37	23.2%	7.6%	1.2
2028PROJ95% MLB	25	MLBPHI	17	17	100	4.49	4.42	23.9%	7.4%	1.3
2029PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBPHI	17	17	100	4.42	4.38	24.3%	7.3%	1.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 3.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.837First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo79

K%41

xwOBA vs41

Form3.49 ERA (proj 4.45) · K 25.0% (proj 23.2%) · BB 8.3% (proj 7.6%) · last 60d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsMike Foltynewicz (age 24) · Luke Weaver (age 24) · Owen Wild (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.45

FIP4.37

K%23.2%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%15.6%

Proj IP105

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$42M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p5225.6%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p410.322

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.837 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$10M	+$9M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$9M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+1.2	$8M	+$6M
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$6M	+$4M
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$9M		$45M	+$36M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	100%	1.5	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	100%	1.5	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	100%	4.7	29.6%	7.3%	22.4%	1.6%	1.56	2.38	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	100%	4.7	38.7%	6.2%	32.4%	1.2%	1.56	1.46	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	4.4%	5.26	4.92	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	4.4%	5.26	4.92	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	23.7%	9.0%	14.6%	3.8%	5.26	4.41	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	150	653	140	55	23	93%	5.0	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.3%	5.27	4.22	+2.1
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	28	150	653	140	55	23	93%	5.0	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.3%	5.27	4.22	+2.1
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	28	150	653	140	55	23	93%	5.0	21.4%	8.4%	13.0%	3.5%	5.27	4.32	+1.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			25	23	127	552	115	47	21	92%	5.1	20.8%	8.5%	12.3%	3.8%	5.40	4.55	+1.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	PHI	18	18	99	418	97	32	14	100%	5.5	23.2%	7.6%	15.6%	3.4%	4.45	4.37	+1.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	105	444	106	33	15	100%	5.8	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	3.4%	4.35	4.28	+1.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	18	18	105	444	108	33	15	100%	5.8	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	3.4%	4.28	4.24	+1.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	16	16	95	403	98	30	14	100%	6.0	24.3%	7.4%	16.9%	3.5%	4.28	4.27	+1.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	91	385	93	29	14	100%	6.1	24.2%	7.6%	16.6%	3.6%	4.33	4.36	+1.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	81	340	80	27	13	100%	6.2	23.6%	7.8%	15.8%	3.7%	4.44	4.52	+0.8
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	67	284	65	23	11	100%	6.1	22.9%	8.1%	14.8%	3.9%	4.61	4.73	+0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	PHI	9	9	53	223	49	19	9	100%	5.9	22.2%	8.4%	13.7%	4.2%	4.82	4.96	+0.3
2035	32	MLB MLE	PHI	6	6	38	163	35	14	7	100%	6.4	21.4%	8.8%	12.5%	4.4%	5.06	5.21	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	100	422	101	31	16	100%	5.9	23.9%	7.4%	16.5%	3.7%	4.49	4.42	+1.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	17	17	100	422	103	31	16	100%	5.9	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	3.7%	4.42	4.38	+1.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	15	15	91	384	93	28	14	100%	6.1	24.3%	7.4%	16.9%	3.7%	4.42	4.41	+1.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	87	367	89	28	14	100%	6.2	24.2%	7.6%	16.6%	3.8%	4.47	4.50	+1.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	77	325	77	25	13	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.8%	15.8%	4.0%	4.59	4.67	+0.8
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	64	270	62	22	11	100%	5.8	22.9%	8.1%	14.8%	4.2%	4.77	4.89	+0.5
2034	31	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	50	211	47	18	9	100%	6.2	22.2%	8.4%	13.7%	4.5%	4.99	5.13	+0.3
2035	32	MLB CTX	PHI	6	6	37	156	33	14	7	100%	6.2	21.4%	8.8%	12.5%	4.7%	5.24	5.39	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		126	124	731	3104	718	244	121	98%	5.8	23.1%	7.8%	15.3%	3.9%	4.73	4.29	+9.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	849	196	67	33	98%	5.8	23.1%	7.8%	15.3%	3.9%	4.73	4.29	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		82	80	378	1595	372	129	51	98%	4.6	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.2%	4.17	3.91	+8.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	844	197	68	27	98%	4.6	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.2%	4.17	3.91	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 24 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.40 (+0.30)K% 24.8% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.75%	—	×0.860	21.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×0.900	7.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 107 IPFIP 4.43 → 4.92 (+0.49)K% 23.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.37%	—	×0.860	20.10%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.68%	—	×0.900	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	3.79%	÷0.947	×1.100	4.40%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 11 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.69 (+1.13)K% 26.7% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.67%	—	×0.740	19.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.22%	—	×1.180	2.62%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷1.083	×1.300	5.34%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 117).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 39 IPFIP 0.55 → 1.81 (+1.26)K% 46.3% → 34.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	46.31%	—	×0.740	34.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.74%	—	×1.180	12.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.55 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 37 IPFIP 1.59 → 2.67 (+1.08)K% 34.3% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.27%	—	×0.770	26.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.90%	—	×1.150	5.63%
HR / BF /BF	1.40%	÷0.881	×1.250	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 1.59 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAReading Fightin Phils · 28 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.76 (+0.78)K% 33.9% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.94%	—	×0.810	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.83%	—	×1.100	2.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.75%	÷1.051	×1.200	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKFCL Phillies · 6 IPFIP -1.73 → -0.18 (+1.54)K% 57.1% → 38.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	57.14%	—	×0.680	38.86%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.250	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -1.73 → -0.18, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Painter (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.4%	—	4.26	24.2%	16.8%	306	-0.11	—	—	—
Mike Foltynewicz R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	24	SP	3.97	21.1%	7.6%	3.1%	.280	3.76	23.0%	14.8%	505	-0.21	3.17	957	80
Luke Weaver R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP	4.35	19.9%	8.5%	3.4%	.314	3.85	24.1%	18.0%	182	-0.50	2.54	1,043	79
Owen Wild R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	22	SP	3.67	23.2%	7.2%	2.9%	.319	4.90	21.2%	12.1%	166	+1.23	3.67	287	79
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	78
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	78
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	21.8%	5.6%	3.4%	.336	6.33	25.7%	15.1%	20	+2.49	3.84	124	78
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	78
Will Warren R 2023 · 4.06 FIP	24	SP	4.06	22.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.287	3.91	23.9%	15.7%	451	-0.15	3.72	709	78
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	77
Raisel Iglesias R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	23.7%	7.1%	2.8%	.271	3.11	27.7%	19.6%	226	-0.43	1.34	825	77
Brandon Sproat R 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.264	3.94	21.7%	11.0%	261	-0.45	3.43	377	77
Dom Hamel R 2023 · 3.94 FIP	24	SP	3.94	24.6%	10.2%	2.9%	.314	5.10	18.0%	7.8%	304	+1.16	3.61	547	76
Emerson Hancock R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	21.1%	10.2%	3.1%	.288	4.31	18.5%	11.5%	428	+0.01	3.24	669	76
Nolan McLean R 2024 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.26	25.6%	16.0%	341	-1.14	3.17	451	75
Alex Faedo R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP	3.73	22.9%	5.8%	3.3%	.293	4.52	18.0%	7.8%	54	+0.79	3.50	459	75
Gavin Stone R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	24	SP-	4.43	21.5%	9.3%	3.6%	.309	3.80	20.9%	14.6%	156	-0.63	2.39	500	75
Chad Kuhl R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	24	SP	4.03	20.9%	9.6%	2.7%	.311	4.88	21.9%	11.3%	131	+0.85	3.92	983	75
Carson Ragsdale R 2021 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	25.0%	10.7%	3.4%	.349	4.27	25.0%	14.6%	148	+0.06	2.00	352	75
Ben Gross R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	24	SP-	4.05	23.0%	8.8%	3.2%	.359	4.85	17.6%	2.0%	22	+0.80	4.05	118	75
Andy Ferguson R 2015 · 3.68 FIP	26	SP-	3.68	22.3%	5.7%	3.2%	.262	3.10	18.6%	10.6%	33	-0.58	3.10	137	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	87	23.2%	7.8%	1.42	4.59
Mark Leiter ('90-'01, 5 WAR*)	5.9	118	20.7%*	7.8%*	1.36*	4.61*
Chuck Cary ('85-'93, 3 WAR*)	2.1	68	24.6%*	8.7%*	1.45*	4.41*
Mike Paul ('68-'74, 2 WAR*)	3.1	105	22.4%*	8.7%*	1.22*	4.77*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62