Andrew Painter — OGILVIE

Andrew Painter P Philadelphia Phillies

+0.7 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.7 · 2030

ERA4.95

FIP4.95

xFIP3.36

SIERA3.24

K%21.4%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%11.6%

IP107

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.7peak

2030

OFP—60

K†5055

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p3222.7%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p880.275

SI (13%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (27%)

FB-1.0 (51%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2022	19	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	29.6%	7.3%	1.6%	1.56	2.37	+3.4
2025	22	AAA	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	20.6%	10.2%	4.4%	5.26	5.07	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	Philadelphia Phillies	3	2	14	61	16	3	0	26.2%	4.9%	0.0%	3.77	1.51	+0.6
ROS	23	MLB	PHI	17	17	92	390	88	36	13	22.6%	9.1%	3.3%	4.16	4.16	+1.1
2026 Total	23	MLB	PHI	—	—	107	451	104	39	13	23.1%	8.6%	2.8%	4.11	3.80	+1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	PHI	23	23	125	529	122	46	17	23.1%	8.7%	3.2%	4.45	4.41	+1.3
2028	25	MLB	PHI	25	25	139	587	137	50	19	23.4%	8.5%	3.2%	4.37	4.33	+1.5
2029	26	MLB	PHI	27	27	146	616	145	52	20	23.5%	8.4%	3.2%	4.33	4.31	+1.6
2030	27	MLB	PHI	27	27	149	629	148	53	20	23.5%	8.4%	3.2%	4.32	4.31	+1.7
2031	28	MLB	PHI	27	27	149	628	147	53	20	23.4%	8.4%	3.2%	4.33	4.34	+1.6
2032	29	MLB	PHI	26	26	145	614	143	52	20	23.3%	8.5%	3.3%	4.36	4.39	+1.5
2033	30	MLB	PHI	26	26	141	595	138	51	20	23.1%	8.6%	3.3%	4.41	4.45	+1.4
2034	31	MLB	PHI	25	25	136	575	131	50	20	22.9%	8.7%	3.4%	4.48	4.52	+1.2
2035	32	MLB	PHI	24	24	131	552	125	49	19	22.6%	8.9%	3.5%	4.56	4.61	+1.0
2036	33	MLB	PHI	23	23	125	527	117	48	19	22.3%	9.1%	3.6%	4.65	4.71	+0.8
2037	34	MLB	PHI	22	22	119	501	110	46	18	21.9%	9.3%	3.7%	4.75	4.82	+0.6
2038	35	MLB	PHI	20	20	112	472	102	45	18	21.5%	9.5%	3.8%	4.86	4.94	+0.5
2039	36	MLB	PHI	19	19	104	441	93	43	17	21.1%	9.8%	3.9%	4.99	5.07	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			55	54	242	1003	254	85	29	25.3%	8.5%	2.9%	3.46	3.63	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—			45	45	200	829	210	70	24	25.3%	8.5%	2.9%	3.46	3.63	+3.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Painter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.95	21.4%	9.9%	3.7%	—	4.35	23.3%	14.8%	410	-0.60	—	—	—
Grant Rogers R 2026 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP-	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	3.89	14.2%	7.6%	150	-0.19	3.89	262	88
Nolan McLean R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	20.0%	10.1%	3.1%	.292	3.12	26.2%	15.9%	185	-1.28	2.20	295	88
Tommy Wilson R 2026 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP-	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	87
Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP-	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.58	17.4%	8.9%	297	-0.16	4.31	418	87
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	87
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	87
Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.98	20.4%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.84	494	86
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	86
Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	23	SP-	4.38	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	-0.01	3.50	368	86
Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	23	SP-	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.53	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.13	3.81	319	86
Brandon Birdsell R 2026 · 3.91 FIP	23	SP-	3.91	17.1%	8.3%	2.2%	.266	4.11	19.9%	13.7%	154	+0.20	3.91	262	86
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	86
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	86
Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	15.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.80	106	86
Kyle Dowdy R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	14.2%	6.3%	2.3%	.311	3.90	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.05	2.98	606	86
Logan Martin R 2026 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.06	15.9%	4.9%	91	+0.11	3.95	193	85
Ian Mejia R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.06	17.8%	8.0%	252	-0.56	3.95	373	85
Brock Stewart R 2026 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP-	4.12	17.9%	6.4%	3.1%	.343	3.50	20.9%	14.1%	304	-0.62	1.56	596	85
Nick Dean R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.99	21.6%	13.8%	65	+0.16	3.83	155	85
Garrett Edwards R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	18.5%	7.3%	2.5%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	107	85

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$11M	+$10M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$13M	+$12M
2029	Arb-1	$6M	+1.6	$14M	+$8M
2030	Arb-2	$11M	+1.7	$15M	+$5M
2031	Arb-3	$16M	+1.6	$15M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$34M		$69M	+$35M