Andrew Painter
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 23
RHP
6'7" / 215 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.5 · 2029
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION78 act + 43 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 111
ERA4.75
FIP4.75
K%19.6%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%10.7%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 121 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7896.5
Whiff%
p2922.3%
K%
p1917.7%
xwOBA vs
p200.348
SI (11%)
CU (9%)
SL-0.9 (33%)
FB-1.0 (44%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -1.73 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 4 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.5 | 57.1% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.90 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 104 | 401 | 155 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 29.6% | 7.3% | 22.4% | 1.6% | 1.56 | 2.42 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 22 | 104 | 401 | 155 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 4.7 | 38.7% | 6.2% | 32.4% | 1.2% | 1.56 | 1.46 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 118 | 520 | 123 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 4.5 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 5.26 | 5.21 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 118 | 520 | 123 | 47 | 20 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 14.6% | 3.8% | 5.26 | 4.41 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 17 | 15 | 78 | 355 | 64 | 31 | 15 | 88% | 4.6 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 6.95 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 43 | 183 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 4.75 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | 8 | 8 | 43 | 182 | 36 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.6% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 121 | 538 | 100 | 47 | 22 | — | — | 18.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 6.16 | 4.95 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 108 | 457 | 100 | 47 | 22 | — | — | 21.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 6.90 | 5.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 134 | 564 | 123 | 45 | 23 | 100% | 5.6 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 4.0% | 4.93 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 153 | 647 | 148 | 50 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 15.2% | 3.9% | 4.75 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 28 | 165 | 698 | 164 | 53 | 27 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 7.6% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 4.64 | 4.58 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 28 | 167 | 704 | 165 | 54 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 3.9% | 4.62 | 4.61 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 28 | 28 | 167 | 704 | 164 | 55 | 28 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.69 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 27 | 27 | 159 | 673 | 155 | 54 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 4.1% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +1.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 150 | 632 | 144 | 53 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 4.3% | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 140 | 589 | 132 | 51 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 5.08 | 5.20 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 129 | 545 | 119 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 4.8% | 5.29 | 5.43 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 117 | 43 | 22 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 4.97 | 4.88 | +0.8 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 146 | 616 | 141 | 47 | 24 | 100% | 5.8 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 15.2% | 4.0% | 4.79 | 4.70 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 156 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.5% | 7.6% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 4.68 | 4.62 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 158 | 667 | 156 | 51 | 26 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 26 | 158 | 667 | 156 | 52 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 15.5% | 4.1% | 4.70 | 4.73 | +1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 25 | 25 | 151 | 638 | 147 | 51 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 8.1% | 15.0% | 4.2% | 4.80 | 4.86 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 136 | 50 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 14.4% | 4.4% | 4.94 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 22 | 22 | 133 | 562 | 125 | 49 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 4.6% | 5.12 | 5.24 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 20 | 20 | 123 | 519 | 114 | 47 | 25 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.9% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 4.9% | 5.34 | 5.48 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 238 | 1404 | 5951 | 1336 | 482 | 252 | 99% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 4.97 | 4.55 | +13.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 848 | 190 | 69 | 36 | 99% | 5.8 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 14.4% | 4.2% | 4.97 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 69 | 67 | 305 | 1297 | 300 | 113 | 46 | 97% | 4.4 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.19 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 44 | 200 | 850 | 197 | 74 | 30 | 97% | 4.4 | 23.2% | 8.7% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.33 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andrew Painter (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | — | 4.68 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 452 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Bryce Jarvis R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.78 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 3.8% | .276 | 5.00 | 18.0% | 6.0% | 296 | +0.22 | 4.22 | 513 | 87 |
| Seth Shuman R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.14 | 18.9% | 7.6% | 4.9% | .297 | 4.40 | 15.4% | 8.4% | 109 | -0.74 | 3.05 | 338 | 85 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 83 |
| Nolan McLean R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 20.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .292 | 3.14 | 26.4% | 16.6% | 269 | -1.68 | 3.07 | 379 | 83 |
| Austin Gordon R 2026 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 83 |
| Andrés Machado R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .350 | 4.87 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 266 | +0.85 | 3.64 | 530 | 83 |
| Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.88 | 16.5% | 9.4% | 3.6% | .288 | 5.29 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 57 | +0.41 | 4.52 | 340 | 82 |
| Thomas Farr R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.93 | 18.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | .340 | 5.24 | 12.4% | 2.9% | 280 | +0.31 | 4.93 | 408 | 82 |
| Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 18.0% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 14.1% | 6.7% | 217 | +0.97 | 4.02 | 285 | 82 |
| Colin Peluse R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.32 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.7% | .299 | 6.05 | 15.0% | 6.8% | 236 | +1.73 | 3.02 | 417 | 82 |
| Cody Morris R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.1% | .362 | 2.86 | 31.1% | 20.9% | 96 | -1.14 | 2.26 | 256 | 82 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.36 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 4.41 | 21.0% | 11.3% | 266 | +0.05 | 3.41 | 368 | 81 |
| Ryan Jensen R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.00 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 4.2% | .236 | 4.59 | 22.3% | 3.9% | 180 | -0.41 | 4.20 | 311 | 81 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 81 |
| Logan Workman R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.30 | 19.3% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .287 | 3.81 | 20.4% | 12.5% | 362 | -0.49 | 3.73 | 540 | 81 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 81 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.35 | 21.3% | 9.2% | 5.3% | .362 | 4.79 | 13.7% | 5.0% | 311 | -0.56 | 4.08 | 536 | 80 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 80 |
| Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.66 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.7% | .298 | 5.01 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.20 | 416 | 80 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 10 | 143 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 1.60 | 4.83 |
| Dylan Bundy ('22) | 7 | 130 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.61 | 4.75 |
| Chase Anderson ('24) | 10 | 99 | 19.5% | 8.1% | 1.50 | 4.45 |
| Aníbal Sánchez ('22) | 7 | 120 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 1.56 | 4.80 |
| Drew Smyly ('24) | 8 | 102 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 1.72 | 4.58 |
| Jordan Lyles ('23) | 9 | 111 | 18.3% | 7.6% | 1.57 | 5.32 |
| Jon Gray ('24) | 10 | 122 | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 4.45 |