Andrew Painter — OGILVIE

Andrew Painter P Philadelphia Phillies

Age 23 RHP 6'7" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.3 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION134 act + 10 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%20.3%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—60

STUF5560

CTRL5560

CMD5060

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7896.5

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p3620.1%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

CH (8%)

SI (9%)

CU (6%)

SL-0.9 (35%)

FB-1.0 (41%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$4M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$7M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$9M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$11M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	100%	1.5	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-1.73	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	4	4	6	21	12	0	0	100%	1.5	57.1%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	0.00	-0.90	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	100%	4.7	29.6%	7.3%	22.4%	1.6%	1.56	2.38	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	22	104	401	155	25	5	100%	4.7	38.7%	6.2%	32.4%	1.2%	1.56	1.46	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	4.4%	5.26	4.98	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	4.4%	5.26	4.98	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	118	520	123	47	20	100%	4.5	23.7%	9.0%	14.6%	3.8%	5.26	4.41	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			22	20	110	483	97	39	19	91%	5.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.9%	5.71	4.64	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	27	25	134	584	122	47	21	93%	5.0	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.4%	5.51	4.27	+1.0
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	27	25	134	584	122	47	21	93%	5.0	20.2%	7.9%	12.3%	3.4%	5.51	4.27	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	PHI	5	5	24	101	25	8	2	100%	4.7	24.8%	7.9%	16.8%	2.0%	4.56	3.10	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	PHI	22	20	110	483	97	39	19	91%	5.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.9%	5.71	4.59	+0.4
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	PHI	22	20	110	483	97	39	19	91%	5.0	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	3.9%	5.71	4.59	+0.4
ROS	23	MLB MLE	PHI	2	2	10	43	9	3	2	100%	5.1	20.3%	7.9%	12.5%	3.6%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	PHI	2	2	10	42	9	3	2	100%	5.0	20.3%	7.9%	12.5%	3.9%	4.52	4.52	+0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	144	627	131	50	23	—	—	20.9%	8.0%	12.8%	3.6%	5.43	4.28	+1.1
FULL	23	MLB A+C	PHI	—	—	120	509	131	50	23	—	—	25.7%	9.9%	15.8%	4.5%	6.51	4.63	+0.9
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	29	29	160	678	148	52	26	100%	5.5	21.9%	7.6%	14.2%	3.8%	4.75	4.67	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	30	30	175	739	169	55	28	100%	5.8	22.9%	7.4%	15.5%	3.8%	4.63	4.55	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	PHI	29	29	175	739	174	55	28	100%	6.0	23.6%	7.4%	16.2%	3.8%	4.55	4.49	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	PHI	29	29	172	728	171	54	28	100%	5.9	23.5%	7.5%	16.1%	3.8%	4.54	4.53	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	PHI	29	29	172	728	170	55	28	100%	5.9	23.4%	7.6%	15.8%	3.9%	4.58	4.61	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	PHI	27	27	165	695	161	54	28	100%	6.1	23.2%	7.8%	15.3%	4.1%	4.68	4.74	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	PHI	26	26	155	653	149	53	28	100%	5.9	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	4.3%	4.83	4.92	-0.0
2034	31	MLB MLE	PHI	24	24	144	609	137	52	27	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	4.5%	5.01	5.12	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	27	27	152	642	140	49	26	100%	5.6	21.9%	7.6%	14.2%	4.0%	4.90	4.82	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	28	28	166	701	161	52	28	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.4%	15.5%	4.0%	4.78	4.70	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	PHI	28	28	166	701	165	52	28	100%	5.9	23.6%	7.4%	16.2%	4.0%	4.70	4.64	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	PHI	27	27	164	692	163	52	28	100%	6.1	23.5%	7.5%	16.1%	4.1%	4.69	4.68	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	PHI	27	27	164	692	162	53	29	100%	6.1	23.4%	7.6%	15.8%	4.2%	4.74	4.77	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	PHI	26	26	156	659	153	52	29	100%	6.0	23.2%	7.8%	15.3%	4.4%	4.84	4.90	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	PHI	24	24	147	621	142	51	28	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	4.6%	5.00	5.09	-0.0
2034	31	MLB CTX	PHI	23	23	137	578	130	49	28	100%	6.0	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	4.8%	5.19	5.30	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		235	233	1373	5816	1322	451	246	99%	5.8	22.7%	7.8%	15.0%	4.2%	4.91	4.48	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	847	193	66	36	99%	5.8	22.7%	7.8%	15.0%	4.2%	4.91	4.48	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		79	77	362	1526	349	121	49	97%	4.6	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.21	3.93	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	43	200	844	193	67	27	97%	4.6	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	3.2%	4.21	3.93	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andrew Painter (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	20.8%	7.9%	3.7%	—	4.57	22.8%	15.3%	510	-0.17	—	—	—
Colin Peluse R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP	4.20	20.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.299	5.51	14.8%	7.1%	236	+1.31	3.05	420	86
Logan Workman R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	23	SP	4.33	19.3%	7.4%	3.5%	.287	3.97	19.8%	12.5%	362	-0.36	3.83	573	86
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.25	354	85
Drey Jameson R 2021 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP	4.16	24.6%	8.7%	3.7%	.310	4.43	20.0%	11.5%	226	+0.27	4.16	397	85
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	84
Kyle Wright R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	21.1%	8.6%	3.5%	.307	3.62	22.1%	13.8%	355	-0.70	3.32	669	84
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	84
Jason Bahr R 2018 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	20.3%	8.2%	2.5%	.297	4.07	20.3%	7.1%	155	+0.28	3.33	315	84
Trevor Martin R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SP	4.25	21.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.297	4.25	19.8%	10.6%	240	+0.00	4.16	350	84
Connor McCullough R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP	4.66	21.8%	6.4%	4.7%	.280	4.09	19.9%	12.5%	148	-0.57	3.68	261	83
Thomas Farr R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	23	SP	5.05	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.26	5.05	423	82
Cody Morris R 2019 · 3.73 FIP	22	SP	3.73	21.6%	8.1%	2.6%	.362	2.85	31.1%	20.9%	96	-0.88	2.23	256	82
Chandler Champlain R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP	4.56	18.6%	7.6%	3.8%	.382	4.85	16.4%	8.1%	395	+0.29	4.44	624	82
Ian Mejia R 2023 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP	4.62	16.8%	6.4%	3.9%	.300	4.73	17.1%	6.8%	318	+0.11	3.94	439	82
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.95	17.6%	8.5%	323	+0.34	4.35	416	82
Mike Foltynewicz R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	20.7%	8.8%	4.0%	.332	3.67	23.3%	15.1%	487	-1.02	3.17	938	81
Hayden Wesneski R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	23	SP	3.79	23.2%	7.2%	3.1%	.295	4.17	22.4%	14.7%	336	+0.38	3.18	546	81
Justin Armbruester R 2022 · 5.02 FIP	23	SP	5.02	21.0%	8.1%	4.9%	.238	5.11	18.4%	8.0%	241	+0.09	1.49	373	81
Shelby Lackey R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.98	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.47	2.92	175	81
Jonathan Cannon R 2023 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.68	17.7%	9.7%	415	-0.06	4.33	536	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.1	158	22.8%	7.7%	1.53	4.69
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Kenta Maeda ('24)	4.9	122	25.9%	6.9%	1.30	4.17
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38