Brandon Sproat
P
Milwaukee Brewers
+1.4
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.4 · 2026
ERA4.48
FIP4.28
xFIP4.91
SIERA4.84
K%20.7%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.7%
IP120
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2026
OFP—50
K†5050
FB Velo
p8597.0
Whiff%
p2621.9%
K%
p4621.6%
xwOBA vs
p100.366
SL+0.7 (11%)
SI (27%)
CU (14%)
FB-0.6 (39%)
CT-1.0 (29%)
CH-1.3 (8%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 24 | 23 | 116 | 463 | 131 | 42 | 14 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 3.40 | 4.45 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 30 | 29 | 142 | 596 | 130 | 60 | 9 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 4.32 | 3.58 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 4 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 21.6% | 14.9% | 5.4% | 6.88 | 6.12 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 103 | 435 | 91 | 47 | 12 | 20.9% | 10.8% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.20 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 120 | 509 | 107 | 58 | 16 | 21.0% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 4.75 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 536 | 114 | 56 | 15 | 21.2% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.62 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 117 | 57 | 15 | 21.3% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.52 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 117 | 56 | 16 | 21.3% | 10.2% | 2.8% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 23 | 127 | 537 | 112 | 55 | 15 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 123 | 521 | 106 | 54 | 15 | 20.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 119 | 503 | 99 | 53 | 15 | 19.7% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.73 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 114 | 483 | 92 | 51 | 15 | 19.1% | 10.6% | 3.1% | 4.84 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | MIL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 461 | 85 | 50 | 15 | 18.4% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.96 | 5.04 | +0.3 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | MIL | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 78 | 48 | 14 | 17.7% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.18 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | MIL | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 70 | 46 | 14 | 17.0% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 5.23 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | MIL | 17 | 17 | 91 | 385 | 62 | 44 | 14 | 16.2% | 11.5% | 3.5% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 54 | 275 | 1133 | 239 | 120 | 30 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.10 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 39 | 200 | 824 | 174 | 87 | 22 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Sproat (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 20.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | — | 4.53 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 387 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 71 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 69 |
| Jorge López R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 17.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .307 | 4.87 | 19.5% | 11.1% | 284 | +0.61 | 2.85 | 955 | 68 |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 68 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 68 |
| Andrés Machado R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.47 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.52 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 125 | +0.05 | 3.70 | 530 | 68 |
| Jayden Murray R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.52 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 4.76 | 19.6% | 6.5% | 105 | +0.24 | 3.90 | 305 | 67 |
| Owen White R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.5% | 13.0% | 1.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 402 | 67 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 67 |
| David Lebron R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.6% | 14.2% | 1.8% | .336 | 5.70 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 62 | +1.40 | 4.30 | 144 | 67 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 66 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 66 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 66 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 66 |
| Mike Franco R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.74 | 17.2% | 12.9% | 2.7% | .251 | 4.33 | 21.9% | 12.7% | 98 | -0.41 | 3.10 | 322 | 66 |
| Jackson Stephens R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.79 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 1.8% | .344 | 3.06 | 20.0% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.73 | 2.73 | 813 | 65 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.29 | 17.9% | 11.0% | 4.2% | .267 | 3.96 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 112 | -1.33 | 3.48 | 383 | 65 |
| Matt Ruppenthal R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 18.5% | 13.8% | 2.5% | .308 | 4.35 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 102 | -0.27 | 3.75 | 283 | 65 |
| Casey Anderson R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 17.3% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 185 | 65 |
| Logan Martin R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.9% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 193 | 65 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 0.128 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2031
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.4 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.1 | $9M | +$8M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $4M | +1.1 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $6M | +1.0 | $9M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $16M | $53M | +$37M | ||