Brandon Sproat

P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 0.7 · 2028 ILForty Man (40M)

Overview

MLBSP40M40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX3 levels	24	23	116	3.40	3.50	28.3%	9.1%	—	K 22.9% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.39
2025	24	MIX2 levels	30	29	142	4.32	3.36	21.8%	10.1%	3.5	K 19.2% · BB 9.2% · FIP 3.43
2026	25	MIX2 levels	30	23	119	5.58	4.63	25.4%	12.8%	1.1	K 24.6% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.54
2027PROJ	26	MLBMIL	8	8	49	4.61	4.55	24.1%	11.3%	0.5
2028PROJ94% MLB	27	MLBMIL	12	12	73	4.68	4.67	24.1%	11.3%	0.7
2029PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIL	11	11	67	4.73	4.76	24.0%	11.5%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.913First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$0.9M2031Arb-2$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo82

K%59

xwOBA vs25

CompsYariel Rodríguez (age 27) · Jonathan Pintaro (age 26) · Ben Casparius (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.55

K%24.1%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p5923.9%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.913 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	116	463	131	42	14	96%	4.8	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.6%	3.40	4.39	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	116	463	131	42	14	96%	4.8	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	3.6%	3.40	4.39	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	116	463	131	42	14	96%	4.8	28.3%	9.1%	19.2%	3.0%	3.40	3.50	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	142	596	130	60	9	97%	4.7	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	1.4%	4.32	3.43	+3.4
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	142	596	130	60	9	97%	4.7	19.2%	9.2%	10.0%	1.4%	4.32	3.43	+3.4
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	142	596	130	60	9	97%	4.7	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	1.5%	4.32	3.36	+3.5
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	23	119	523	133	67	19	77%	4.0	24.6%	12.5%	12.0%	3.5%	5.58	4.54	+1.2
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	23	119	523	133	67	19	77%	4.0	24.6%	12.5%	12.0%	3.5%	5.58	4.54	+1.2
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	23	119	523	133	67	19	77%	4.0	25.4%	12.8%	12.6%	3.6%	5.58	4.63	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	23	118	506	118	59	17	88%	4.5	23.3%	11.7%	11.7%	3.4%	5.43	4.48	+1.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIL	8	8	49	207	50	23	6	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.61	4.55	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	78	331	80	37	10	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.3%	12.8%	3.1%	4.59	4.58	+0.7
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	71	299	72	34	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	3.2%	4.64	4.67	+0.6
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	60	255	60	30	9	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	3.4%	4.75	4.83	+0.4
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	49	206	47	25	7	100%	6.1	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	3.6%	4.92	5.04	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	73	308	74	35	10	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.3%	12.8%	3.3%	4.68	4.67	+0.7
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	67	283	68	33	10	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.5%	12.5%	3.4%	4.73	4.76	+0.6
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	57	241	56	28	8	100%	5.7	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	3.5%	4.84	4.92	+0.4
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	46	194	44	23	7	100%	5.8	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	3.7%	5.02	5.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	64	362	1538	362	179	52	96%	5.4	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	3.4%	5.00	4.46	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	850	200	99	29	96%	5.4	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	3.4%	5.00	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		84	75	377	1582	349	165	44	89%	4.5	22.0%	10.4%	11.6%	2.8%	4.44	4.08	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	839	185	87	23	89%	4.5	22.0%	10.4%	11.6%	2.8%	4.44	4.08	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 22 IPFIP 3.39 → 3.69 (+0.30)K% 31.7% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.68%	—	×0.860	27.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.85%	—	×0.900	13.37%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.39 → 3.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 121 IPFIP 3.51 → 3.59 (+0.07)K% 22.1% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.07%	—	×0.860	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.35%	—	×0.900	9.32%
HR / BF /BF	1.76%	÷1.167	×1.100	1.66%

Result: FIP 3.51 → 3.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 62 IPFIP 2.54 → 3.77 (+1.24)K% 33.2% → 26.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.19%	—	×0.810	26.88%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.47%	—	×1.100	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.834	×1.200	3.72%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 67).

Result: FIP 2.54 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 29 IPFIP 5.78 → 5.98 (+0.20)K% 16.3% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.28%	—	×0.860	14.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.53%	—	×0.900	7.67%
HR / BF /BF	5.43%	÷1.059	×1.100	5.64%

Result: FIP 5.78 → 5.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 25 IPFIP 2.89 → 3.78 (+0.89)K% 32.4% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.35%	—	×0.770	24.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.69%	—	×1.150	18.04%
HR / BF /BF	0.98%	÷1.341	×1.250	0.91%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 168).

Result: FIP 2.89 → 3.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Sproat (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.68	23.8%	12.3%	210	+0.13	—	—	—
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	79
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	74
Ben Casparius R 2024 · 3.60 FIP	25	SP	3.60	23.7%	11.5%	1.9%	.268	3.66	20.6%	12.2%	88	+0.06	3.36	374	73
Mike Clevinger R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	26	SP-	3.64	26.5%	11.3%	2.5%	.274	3.11	28.3%	20.3%	368	-0.53	2.28	1,236	73
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	70
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	70
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	70
Luke Russo R 2024 · 3.74 FIP	23	SP	3.74	21.7%	11.1%	1.9%	.326	5.00	19.6%	8.8%	159	+1.26	3.74	260	69
J.P. France R 2021 · 4.04 FIP	26	SP-	4.04	27.6%	11.3%	3.4%	.306	4.38	21.0%	11.5%	292	+0.34	4.04	577	69
Gavin Williams R 2024 · 3.54 FIP	25	SP	3.54	24.7%	9.8%	2.3%	.317	3.83	29.1%	19.2%	352	+0.29	3.39	697	69
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	69
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	68
Blake Wehunt R 2024 · 3.65 FIP	23	SP	3.65	21.8%	10.4%	1.9%	.261	4.30	21.0%	11.4%	164	+0.65	3.65	256	68
Alec Marsh R 2024 · 3.93 FIP	26	SP	3.93	23.4%	7.0%	3.5%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	424	68
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	68
Chayce McDermott R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP	3.80	28.3%	12.3%	2.8%	.314	4.33	23.3%	8.3%	108	+0.53	3.27	449	68
Spencer Howard R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	26	SP	4.69	22.2%	9.3%	4.2%	.314	4.93	25.8%	17.1%	112	+0.24	2.33	484	68
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	68
Rafael Montero R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	26	SP-	3.88	22.0%	11.2%	2.2%	.339	3.41	28.7%	22.8%	47	-0.47	2.43	714	67
Alex Pham R 2024 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP	4.09	22.6%	11.1%	2.7%	.284	3.85	23.2%	11.3%	100	-0.24	3.73	352	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	23.6%	11.6%	1.27	4.89
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
José Ruiz ('25)	1.4	57	22.3%	10.4%	1.44	4.62