Brandon Sproat — OGILVIE

Brandon Sproat P Milwaukee Brewers

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs MLB Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION115 act + 13 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 97

ERA3.88

FIP3.92

K%23.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 128 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5555

CTRL4550

CMD4045

K†5055

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8296.8

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p5923.9%

xwOBA vs

p250.341

SL+0.7 (10%)

SI (26%)

CU (10%)

FB-0.6 (51%)

CT-1.0 (21%)

CH-1.3 (8%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.128 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$2M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	116	463	131	42	14	96%	4.8	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.6%	3.40	4.40	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	116	463	131	42	14	96%	4.8	22.7%	9.7%	13.0%	3.6%	3.40	4.40	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	116	463	131	42	14	96%	4.8	28.3%	9.1%	19.2%	3.0%	3.40	3.50	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	142	596	130	60	9	97%	4.7	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	1.4%	4.32	3.47	+2.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	29	142	596	130	60	9	97%	4.7	18.6%	9.2%	9.4%	1.4%	4.32	3.47	+2.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	29	142	596	130	60	9	97%	4.7	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	1.5%	4.32	3.36	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	23	118	506	118	59	17	88%	4.5	23.3%	11.7%	11.7%	3.4%	5.43	4.48	+0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	27	23	115	500	128	62	19	85%	4.3	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	3.7%	5.32	4.58	+0.4
YTD	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	27	23	115	500	128	62	19	85%	4.3	24.7%	12.2%	12.5%	3.7%	5.32	4.58	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	MIL	5	4	18	78	27	10	2	80%	3.6	34.6%	12.8%	21.8%	2.6%	4.00	3.21	—
2026	25	MLB RAW	MIL	22	19	97	422	101	52	17	86%	4.4	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	4.0%	5.57	4.85	+0.1
SO FAR	25	MLB RAW	MIL	22	19	97	422	101	52	17	86%	4.4	23.9%	12.3%	11.6%	4.0%	5.57	4.85	+0.1
ROS	25	MLB MLE	MIL	2	2	13	55	13	6	1	100%	6.6	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	2.5%	3.88	3.92	+0.2
ROS	25	MLB CTX	MIL	2	2	13	55	13	6	1	100%	6.5	23.1%	10.8%	12.3%	2.7%	3.95	3.99	+0.2
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	MIL	—	—	128	555	141	68	20	—	—	25.4%	12.2%	13.1%	3.7%	5.17	4.51	+0.6
FULL	25	MLB A+C	MIL	—	—	110	465	141	68	20	—	—	30.3%	14.6%	15.7%	4.4%	6.03	4.81	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	174	733	167	80	23	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.64	+0.5
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIL	29	29	175	739	168	81	23	100%	6.0	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.2%	4.66	4.67	+0.5
2029	28	MLB MLE	MIL	28	28	170	717	163	80	23	100%	6.1	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	3.3%	4.72	4.76	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	MIL	27	27	162	685	151	78	23	100%	6.0	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.4%	4.84	4.92	-0.0
2031	30	MLB MLE	MIL	25	25	152	644	138	75	23	100%	6.1	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.6%	5.01	5.12	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIL	28	28	165	697	159	76	23	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.73	4.73	+0.5
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIL	28	28	166	701	160	77	23	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.75	4.76	+0.4
2029	28	MLB CTX	MIL	27	27	161	680	154	75	23	100%	6.0	22.7%	11.1%	11.6%	3.4%	4.81	4.85	+0.3
2030	29	MLB CTX	MIL	26	26	154	650	144	74	23	100%	5.9	22.1%	11.3%	10.8%	3.6%	4.93	5.01	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	MIL	24	24	145	612	131	71	23	100%	6.0	21.4%	11.6%	9.8%	3.8%	5.11	5.22	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		161	158	922	3903	879	438	134	98%	5.7	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.92	4.50	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	846	191	95	29	98%	5.7	22.5%	11.2%	11.3%	3.4%	4.92	4.50	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		81	75	373	1559	339	160	44	93%	4.6	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.34	4.10	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	836	182	86	23	93%	4.6	21.8%	10.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.34	4.10	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brandon Sproat (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	20.0%	9.2%	2.3%	—	4.69	22.8%	11.8%	518	+0.46	—	—	—
Landon Knack R 2022 · 4.38 FIP	25	SP	4.38	23.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.335	4.44	20.8%	11.9%	382	+0.06	2.77	544	75
Burch Smith R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	27	SP	3.93	19.5%	12.6%	1.6%	.234	4.43	22.2%	10.5%	192	+0.50	3.50	382	71
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	70
James McArthur R 2022 · 5.19 FIP	25	SP	5.19	20.3%	11.0%	4.4%	.352	3.71	22.2%	15.5%	137	-1.48	3.53	352	70
Matt Magill R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP	4.98	16.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.435	4.86	18.6%	8.4%	195	-0.12	3.40	259	70
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	70
Thaddeus Ward R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	25	SP	3.90	23.9%	11.1%	2.6%	.309	5.00	17.6%	2.5%	275	+1.10	3.53	434	70
Connor Seabold R 2021 · 3.72 FIP	25	SP	3.72	20.2%	8.8%	2.2%	.247	4.05	19.2%	13.1%	224	+0.33	3.13	542	69
Antonio Guzman R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	18.8%	11.2%	1.2%	.328	3.47	20.6%	11.3%	170	-0.13	3.15	254	69
David Griffin R 2021 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP	4.43	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.26	15.3%	5.8%	168	+0.83	4.43	239	69
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	69
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	68
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	68
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	68
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	67
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	67
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	801	67
Ricky Salinas R 2021 · 5.08 FIP	25	SP	5.08	20.9%	10.3%	4.5%	.335	5.79	14.3%	-0.8%	71	+0.71	4.77	274	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	164	22.0%	10.9%	1.22	4.68
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Trevor Bauer ('21)	5.6	159	26.8%	8.7%	1.13	3.68
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75