Brandon Sproat
P
Milwaukee Brewers
Age 25
RHP
6'3" / 205 lbs
MLB
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.15
FIP4.20
K%23.2%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 148 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p4825.0%
K%
p6424.7%
xwOBA vs
p290.336
SL+0.7 (10%)
SI (24%)
CU (11%)
FB-0.6 (48%)
CT-1.0 (24%)
CH-1.3 (8%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 23 | 116 | 463 | 131 | 42 | 14 | 96% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 12.9% | 4.0% | 3.40 | 4.61 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 24 | 23 | 116 | 463 | 131 | 42 | 14 | 96% | 4.8 | 28.3% | 9.1% | 19.2% | 3.0% | 3.40 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 142 | 596 | 130 | 60 | 9 | 97% | 4.7 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 1.2% | 4.32 | 3.47 | +3.2 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 29 | 142 | 596 | 130 | 60 | 9 | 97% | 4.7 | 21.8% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 1.5% | 4.32 | 3.36 | +3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 18 | 16 | 82 | 352 | 87 | 39 | 15 | 89% | 4.6 | 24.7% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 5.16 | 4.76 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 65 | 30 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 4.20 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIL | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 65 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.2% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 148 | 632 | 152 | 69 | 24 | — | — | 24.1% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 3.7% | 4.71 | 4.51 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 148 | 627 | 152 | 69 | 23 | — | — | 24.3% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.51 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 174 | 733 | 170 | 79 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.59 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 171 | 80 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.63 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 170 | 717 | 165 | 79 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.71 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 27 | 162 | 685 | 153 | 77 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.79 | 4.87 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 25 | 25 | 152 | 644 | 140 | 74 | 23 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.96 | 5.08 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 142 | 600 | 126 | 71 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 5.17 | 5.31 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 132 | 555 | 112 | 68 | 23 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 5.41 | 5.56 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 165 | 697 | 161 | 75 | 21 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.56 | +1.6 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 28 | 28 | 166 | 701 | 162 | 76 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 23.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.60 | +1.6 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 27 | 27 | 161 | 680 | 156 | 75 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.67 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 26 | 26 | 154 | 650 | 146 | 73 | 22 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 4.83 | +1.0 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 24 | 24 | 145 | 612 | 133 | 70 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.7% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 4.92 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 119 | 68 | 21 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.13 | 5.27 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 21 | 21 | 125 | 528 | 106 | 65 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.37 | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 210 | 208 | 1221 | 5156 | 1153 | 578 | 173 | 99% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.48 | +13.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 845 | 189 | 95 | 28 | 99% | 5.8 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.48 | +2.2 | ||
| Career | — | 72 | 68 | 340 | 1411 | 310 | 148 | 41 | 94% | 4.7 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 830 | 182 | 87 | 24 | 94% | 4.7 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 4.21 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brandon Sproat (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 20.7% | 10.5% | 2.3% | — | 4.64 | 23.1% | 12.2% | 518 | +0.33 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Pintaro R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 3.52 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 1.5% | .264 | 3.82 | 24.9% | 12.4% | 117 | +0.30 | 3.12 | 187 | 75 |
| Landon Knack R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.39 | 23.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | .335 | 4.65 | 21.4% | 11.7% | 382 | +0.26 | 3.67 | 509 | 74 |
| James McArthur R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.08 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 4.2% | .352 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 15.5% | 137 | -1.30 | 3.53 | 352 | 70 |
| Thaddeus Ward R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.90 | 23.9% | 11.1% | 2.6% | .309 | 5.24 | 18.5% | 1.2% | 275 | +1.34 | 3.48 | 434 | 70 |
| Burch Smith R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.94 | 19.5% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .234 | 4.41 | 22.2% | 10.5% | 192 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 382 | 70 |
| Matt Magill R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.96 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .435 | 4.87 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 195 | -0.09 | 3.45 | 259 | 69 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | .286 | 5.51 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 58 | +1.96 | 3.29 | 142 | 69 |
| Blade Tidwell R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.29 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 3.1% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 408 | 69 |
| Connor Seabold R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.49 | 20.2% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .247 | 3.94 | 19.3% | 13.1% | 224 | +0.45 | 3.03 | 576 | 69 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 69 |
| Griffin Canning R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.37 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | .295 | 4.67 | 21.1% | 13.3% | 299 | -0.70 | 3.70 | 776 | 68 |
| Antonio Guzman R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.60 | 18.8% | 11.2% | 1.2% | .328 | 3.63 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 170 | +0.03 | 3.22 | 254 | 68 |
| Shohei Ohtani R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.52 | 29.9% | 10.4% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.23 | 29.3% | 21.4% | 130 | -0.29 | 1.85 | 613 | 68 |
| Jackson Nezuh R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.06 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 4.8% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 258 | 68 |
| Ben Casparius R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.82 | 24.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.49 | 21.3% | 15.0% | 78 | -0.33 | 3.49 | 364 | 67 |
| Peter Van Loon R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.14 | 25.5% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .303 | 4.30 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 53 | +1.16 | 2.47 | 256 | 67 |
| Jake Lee R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 25.7% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .296 | 3.43 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 40 | -1.37 | 2.78 | 181 | 67 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.59 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.39 | 23.9% | 16.4% | 335 | -0.20 | 2.76 | 537 | 67 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 66 |
| Blake Wehunt R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.98 | 26.8% | 8.1% | 3.9% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 209 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 159 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 1.28 | 4.78 |
| Julio Teheran ('23) | 7 | 147 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 1.34 | 4.12 |
| Kyle Gibson ('24) | 10 | 164 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 4.46 |
| Jake Odorizzi ('22) | 7 | 148 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 1.24 | 3.92 |
| Wade Miley ('23) | 8 | 136 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 1.07 | 4.20 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Lance Lynn ('24) | 9 | 154 | 23.9% | 8.1% | 1.20 | 3.86 |