Rafael Montero
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 35
RHP
6'0" / 193 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION47 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.68
FIP4.69
xFIP4.48
SIERA4.56
K%23.2%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%11.2%
IP47
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p7629.3%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p670.295
SL+3.1 (8%)
SI (5%)
FB (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 12 | 7 | 29 | 120 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 22.5% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 3.77 | 2.29 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 34 | 28 | 148 | 678 | 128 | 71 | 20 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 5.66 | 4.66 | +1.3 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 39 | 23 | 148 | 665 | 151 | 74 | 15 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 4.93 | 3.85 | +2.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 5 | 47 | 188 | 65 | 6 | 5 | 30.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.85 | 3.49 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 17 | 0 | 18 | 72 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.41 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 44 | 0 | 49 | 225 | 42 | 16 | 4 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 6.39 | 3.35 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 27.0% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 2.37 | 2.38 | +1.9 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 0 | 67 | 298 | 79 | 29 | 11 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 58 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 47 | 28 | 10 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.95 | 5.46 | -0.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 59 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 35 | 5 | 22.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 4.10 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 14 | 1 | 15 | 65 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 24.4% | 11.3% | 1.7% | 5.40 | 3.40 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | NYY | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 43 | 22 | 6 | 23.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 35 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 59 | 251 | 61 | 29 | 7 | 24.4% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.86 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 22.2% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 5.05 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 449 | 64 | 705 | 3068 | 673 | 306 | 79 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 3.92 | +12.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 18 | 200 | 871 | 191 | 87 | 22 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.6% | 4.64 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.69 | 23.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.05 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 39 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 72 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 4.00 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.00 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.56 | 147 | 70 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 70 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 69 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 5.83 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.83 | 17.9% | 14.2% | 4.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 170 | 69 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 67 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 66 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 66 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 66 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 65 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 65 |
| Jason Motte R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.16 | 16.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .193 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 113 | 65 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 65 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 65 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 64 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.8% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 104 | 64 |
| Spencer Patton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 239 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.