Rafael Montero
P
Detroit Tigers
+0.2
WAR
Age 35
RHP
6'0" / 193 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.73
FIP4.70
xFIP4.48
SIERA4.56
K%22.3%
BB%12.0%
K-BB%10.3%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p5895.1
Whiff%
p7629.3%
K%
p5422.9%
xwOBA vs
p670.295
SL+3.1 (8%)
SI (5%)
FB (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | New York Mets | 12 | 7 | 29 | 120 | 27 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.77 | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 34 | 28 | 148 | 678 | 128 | 71 | 20 | 16.6% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 5.66 | 4.74 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 39 | 23 | 148 | 665 | 151 | 74 | 15 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 4.93 | 3.94 | +2.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 33 | 5 | 47 | 188 | 65 | 6 | 5 | 30.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.85 | 3.50 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 17 | 0 | 18 | 72 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 26.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.08 | 3.57 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 44 | 0 | 49 | 225 | 42 | 16 | 4 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 1.7% | 6.39 | 3.37 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 31 | MLB | Houston Astros | 71 | 0 | 68 | 270 | 73 | 21 | 3 | 27.0% | 7.8% | 1.1% | 2.37 | 2.40 | +2.0 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Houston Astros | 68 | 0 | 67 | 298 | 79 | 29 | 11 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Houston Astros | 58 | 0 | 55 | 234 | 47 | 28 | 10 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 3.95 | 5.45 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 59 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 58 | 35 | 5 | 22.9% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 4.48 | 3.95 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 44 | 22 | 5 | 23.5% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.75 | 4.63 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 37 | 20 | 5 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 435 | 63 | 690 | 3003 | 657 | 299 | 81 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 3.99 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 126 | 18 | 200 | 871 | 191 | 87 | 23 | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 3.99 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Montero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.63 | 23.5% | 12.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.79 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 38 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 73 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2024 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 71 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 71 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 70 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.06 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 70 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 69 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 69 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 69 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 67 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 67 |
| Mark Serrano R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 67 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 2.39 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.59 | 1.43 | 240 | 67 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.45 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 3.9% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 208 | 66 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.11 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 186 | 66 |
| Radhames Liz R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 66 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.46 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.31 | 2.15 | 488 | 66 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.71 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 244 | 66 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.57 | 251 | 65 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 65 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.