Chayce McDermott
P
Norfolk Tides
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 27
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA9.19
FIP4.92
xFIP7.87
SIERA7.01
K%23.5%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%8.8%
IP82
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
STUF5055
CMD3040
K†6060
CH (5%)
CU (1%)
FB-2.8 (54%)
SL-4.9 (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 7 | 4 | 21 | 85 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 33.0% | 15.9% | 3.9% | 2.95 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Bowie Baysox | 27 | 18 | 104 | 457 | 160 | 64 | 17 | 27.3% | 15.9% | 4.3% | 5.56 | 5.16 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 26 | 22 | 119 | 492 | 152 | 68 | 9 | 25.9% | 15.0% | 1.9% | 3.10 | 3.86 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 23 | 22 | 104 | 456 | 147 | 62 | 12 | 28.9% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 4.00 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 30 | 12 | 68 | 324 | 72 | 57 | 9 | 19.6% | 17.8% | 2.7% | 7.38 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | 5 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 9 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.75 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | BAL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 34 | 21 | 4 | 24.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 9.19 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | BAL | — | — | 38 | 166 | 43 | 27 | 4 | 25.9% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 8.85 | 4.23 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 83 | 349 | 85 | 51 | 10 | 24.3% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 6.58 | 4.88 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | BAL | 15 | 15 | 81 | 341 | 82 | 49 | 10 | 24.0% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 5.54 | 4.88 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 78 | 331 | 85 | 44 | 10 | 25.7% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.64 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | BAL | 14 | 14 | 76 | 320 | 81 | 42 | 10 | 25.4% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.71 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 73 | 307 | 77 | 41 | 10 | 25.2% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | BAL | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 73 | 40 | 10 | 24.9% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 4.85 | 4.89 | +0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | BAL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 68 | 38 | 9 | 24.5% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 4.94 | 5.00 | +0.0 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | BAL | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 63 | 37 | 9 | 24.1% | 14.0% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.12 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | BAL | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 58 | 35 | 9 | 23.7% | 14.3% | 3.6% | 5.17 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 78 | 422 | 1842 | 485 | 289 | 54 | 26.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.47 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 37 | 200 | 874 | 230 | 137 | 26 | 26.3% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chayce McDermott (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 24.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.80 | 24.7% | 10.6% | 242 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.93 | 26.4% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .274 | 4.99 | 22.1% | 8.9% | 69 | +1.06 | 3.83 | 181 | 80 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 80 |
| Cole McDonald R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.16 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 3.8% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.84 | 153 | 79 |
| Michael Ynoa R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.68 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 142 | 79 |
| Peyton Gray R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 78 |
| Joe Colón J R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.30 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.5% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 113 | 78 |
| Mason Vinyard R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.41 | 21.8% | 14.5% | 2.4% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 154 | 78 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 24.3% | 16.3% | 2.1% | .312 | 3.27 | 25.0% | 14.7% | 130 | -0.97 | 2.28 | 186 | 78 |
| Jake Haberer R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.24 | 24.3% | 16.0% | 4.0% | .324 | 5.10 | 16.4% | 0.9% | 62 | -0.14 | 3.46 | 183 | 78 |
| Beck Wheeler R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.41 | 24.9% | 14.5% | 2.9% | .360 | 5.38 | 15.3% | 3.1% | 58 | +0.97 | 3.46 | 173 | 76 |
| Derek Eitel R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.29 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.05 | 4.00 | 138 | 76 |
| Kevin Lenik R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.90 | 21.7% | 14.9% | 3.2% | .205 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.00 | 107 | 76 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .355 | 4.49 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | -0.08 | 3.70 | 187 | 76 |
| Cayne Ueckert R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.94 | 23.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .337 | 5.65 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 64 | +1.71 | 3.94 | 205 | 75 |
| Tommy Nance R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.10 | 18.6% | 13.9% | 1.5% | .236 | 3.42 | 23.3% | 14.2% | 91 | -0.68 | 2.11 | 300 | 75 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 5.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.12 | 21.1% | 17.2% | 2.9% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 104 | 75 |
| Cody Morris R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.15 | 23.8% | 16.1% | 1.9% | .263 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.23 | 256 | 75 |
| Theo Denlinger R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.34 | 20.2% | 16.4% | 1.6% | .266 | 4.24 | 15.3% | 9.9% | 41 | -0.10 | 2.90 | 140 | 75 |
| Jackson Goddard R 2025 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.49 | 21.1% | 14.3% | 2.5% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 149 | 75 |
| Caleb Simpson R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 24.7% | 17.3% | 1.5% | .189 | 4.24 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 54 | +0.22 | 3.65 | 197 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.