Chayce McDermott

Chayce McDermott P Syracuse Mets

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 103

ERA4.75

FIP4.55

K%24.1%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5055

CMD3040

K†5555

CH (5%)

CU (1%)

FB-2.8 (54%)

SL-4.9 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	4	21	85	40	11	3	57%	3.0	33.0%	15.9%	17.1%	4.5%	2.95	4.79	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	4	21	85	40	11	3	57%	3.0	47.1%	12.9%	34.1%	3.5%	2.95	2.73	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	18	104	457	160	64	17	67%	3.8	27.3%	15.9%	11.4%	4.2%	5.56	5.13	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	18	104	457	160	64	17	67%	3.8	35.0%	14.0%	21.0%	3.7%	5.56	4.00	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	119	492	152	68	9	85%	4.6	25.3%	14.2%	11.1%	1.9%	3.10	3.80	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	119	492	152	68	9	85%	4.6	25.3%	14.2%	11.1%	1.9%	3.10	3.80	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	119	492	152	68	9	85%	4.6	30.9%	13.8%	17.1%	1.8%	3.10	3.24	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	456	147	62	12	96%	4.5	27.3%	12.3%	15.0%	2.8%	3.89	3.88	+1.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	456	147	62	12	96%	4.5	27.3%	12.3%	15.0%	2.8%	3.89	3.88	+1.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	456	147	62	12	96%	4.5	32.2%	13.6%	18.6%	2.6%	3.89	3.56	+1.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	68	324	72	57	9	40%	2.3	18.7%	15.8%	2.9%	2.8%	7.38	5.04	-0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	12	68	324	72	57	9	40%	2.3	18.7%	15.8%	2.9%	2.8%	7.38	5.04	-0.4
2025	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	12	68	324	72	57	9	40%	2.3	22.2%	17.6%	4.6%	2.8%	7.38	5.21	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			10	2	20	105	18	18	6	20%	2.0	17.1%	17.1%	0.0%	5.7%	10.18	7.82	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	42	1	46	214	68	33	5	2%	1.1	28.9%	14.7%	14.2%	1.9%	4.30	3.53	—
YTD	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	42	1	46	214	68	33	5	2%	1.1	28.9%	14.7%	14.2%	1.9%	4.30	3.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	NYM	37	1	38	178	62	29	3	3%	1.0	34.8%	16.3%	18.5%	1.7%	3.99	3.15	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	NYM	5	0	8	36	6	4	2	0%	1.5	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.6%	5.87	6.15	—
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	NYM	5	0	8	36	6	4	2	0%	1.5	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	5.6%	5.87	6.15	—
ROS	27	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	27	6	4	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	15.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.55	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	4	1	0%	1.0	24.1%	15.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.55	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	52	241	74	37	6	—	—	30.9%	15.4%	15.5%	2.4%	4.36	3.66	+0.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	14	59	74	37	6	—	—	126.2%	62.8%	63.4%	9.8%	16.32	5.76	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	NYM	132	0	139	587	132	83	18	0%	1.1	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	3.1%	5.16	5.11	-0.9
2028	29	MLB MLE	NYM	126	0	133	560	124	78	18	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	3.3%	5.15	5.18	-0.9
2029	30	MLB MLE	NYM	119	0	125	527	115	73	18	0%	1.0	21.8%	14.0%	7.9%	3.5%	5.23	5.31	-1.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	NYM	126	0	132	557	125	79	18	0%	1.0	22.4%	14.2%	8.2%	3.1%	5.16	5.11	-0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	NYM	120	0	126	532	118	74	17	0%	1.1	22.2%	14.0%	8.2%	3.3%	5.15	5.18	-0.9
2029	30	MLB CTX	NYM	112	0	118	498	109	70	17	0%	1.1	21.8%	14.0%	7.9%	3.5%	5.23	5.31	-1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		375	2	403	1722	377	245	59	1%	1.1	21.9%	14.3%	7.6%	3.4%	5.42	4.94	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	1	200	854	187	122	29	1%	1.1	21.9%	14.3%	7.6%	3.4%	5.42	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		155	79	462	2028	524	295	58	51%	3.0	25.8%	14.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.33	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	34	200	877	227	128	25	51%	3.0	25.8%	14.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.33	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chayce McDermott (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	23.3%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.20	22.2%	8.1%	396	+0.20	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.37	14.7%	3.6%	156	+0.91	4.46	215	74
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	71
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP-	4.93	19.3%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.96	3.02	341	70
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	70
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	25	SW	5.30	21.4%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	69
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	69
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	247	69
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	68
Ben Gross R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	17.6%	15.6%	2.3%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	4.05	118	68
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	68
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.07	26.7%	16.7%	73	-0.97	2.28	118	68
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	67
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	67
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	66
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	66
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	65
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	65
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	65
Fernando Baez R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	24.3%	21.2%	3.0%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	129	65
Brian Keller R 2021 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	22.6%	19.1%	1.1%	.288	3.67	23.6%	12.0%	113	-0.56	1.89	605	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	131	22.4%	14.3%	1.24	5.18
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Brandon Finnegan ('18)	1.2	80	19.7%	11.6%	1.57	4.19
Ian Anderson ('22)	1.4	91	22.5%	10.4%	0.96	3.97
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47