Gavin Stone — OGILVIE

Gavin Stone P Oklahoma City Comets

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA peak 1.4 · 2026 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 123 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.38

FIP4.27

K%20.9%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%14.1%

ROS IP124

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5594.9

Whiff%

p4624.7%

p3520.0%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

CH+4.8 (27%)

SL+3.1 (16%)

CT+1.2 (6%)

SI (23%)

CU (4%)

FB-3.7 (47%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	91	378	138	25	7	96%	4.0	27.3%	7.8%	19.5%	2.5%	3.76	3.15	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	91	378	138	25	7	96%	4.0	36.5%	6.6%	29.9%	1.9%	3.76	1.89	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	122	496	168	44	3	96%	4.7	27.7%	9.7%	17.9%	0.7%	1.48	2.39	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	122	496	168	44	3	96%	4.7	33.9%	8.9%	25.0%	0.6%	1.48	1.74	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	132	583	142	59	20	79%	4.5	20.9%	9.3%	11.5%	3.6%	5.74	4.48	+0.6
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	23	132	583	142	59	20	79%	4.5	20.9%	9.3%	11.5%	3.6%	5.74	4.48	+0.6
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	23	132	583	142	59	20	79%	4.5	24.4%	10.1%	14.2%	3.4%	5.74	4.26	+1.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	25	140	580	116	37	18	100%	5.6	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.0%	3.53	3.85	+1.8
2024	25	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	25	140	580	116	37	18	100%	5.6	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.0%	3.53	3.85	+1.8
2024	25	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	25	25	140	580	116	37	18	100%	5.6	20.0%	6.4%	13.6%	3.1%	3.53	3.91	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			33	29	171	732	138	50	26	88%	5.2	18.9%	6.8%	12.0%	3.6%	4.52	4.34	+1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	5	5	12	47	20	3	2	100%	2.5	—	—	—	—	3.65	—	—
YTD	27	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	5	5	12	47	20	3	2	100%	2.5	—	—	—	—	3.65	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	LAD	5	5	12	47	20	3	2	100%	2.5	42.6%	6.4%	36.2%	4.3%	3.65	2.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	LAD	21	21	124	521	109	37	17	100%	5.9	20.8%	7.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	+0.8
2028	29	MLB MLE	LAD	20	20	118	498	101	36	17	100%	5.9	20.2%	7.2%	13.0%	3.3%	4.45	4.51	+0.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	LAD	18	18	111	468	91	35	16	100%	6.2	19.5%	7.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.61	4.72	+0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	LAD	17	17	103	436	82	34	16	100%	6.1	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	3.8%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2031	32	MLB MLE	LAD	16	16	96	404	73	33	16	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	-0.3
2027	28	MLB CTX	LAD	13	13	79	334	69	23	11	100%	6.1	20.8%	7.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.36	4.35	+0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	87	367	74	27	12	100%	6.2	20.2%	7.2%	13.0%	3.3%	4.45	4.51	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	89	376	73	28	13	100%	5.9	19.5%	7.5%	12.0%	3.5%	4.61	4.72	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	LAD	15	15	88	372	70	29	14	100%	5.9	18.8%	7.9%	10.9%	3.8%	4.81	4.95	-0.1
2031	32	MLB CTX	LAD	14	14	84	355	64	29	14	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.3%	9.7%	4.0%	5.05	5.21	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		104	100	599	2538	489	187	90	96%	5.8	19.3%	7.4%	11.9%	3.6%	4.62	4.36	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	847	163	62	30	96%	5.7	19.3%	7.4%	11.9%	3.6%	4.62	4.36	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		108	100	497	2084	498	172	53	93%	4.6	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.5%	3.66	3.52	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	839	200	69	21	93%	4.6	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.5%	3.66	3.52	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gavin Stone (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	20.9%	6.9%	3.1%	—	4.52	20.2%	13.0%	352	+0.25	—	—	—
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	76
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	73
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	73
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	72
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	72
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	72
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	72
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	72
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	71
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	71
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	71
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	71
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	71
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	70
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	70
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	70
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	70
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	69
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	69
Shawn Haviland R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	29	SP-	3.95	14.6%	6.0%	2.4%	.303	4.67	16.1%	8.8%	169	+0.72	3.69	283	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	111	19.8%	7.4%	1.34	4.59
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13