Gavin Stone
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.3 · 2027
ILInjured 60-Day (D60)
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 123 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA4.44
FIP4.36
K%21.1%
BB%7.0%
K-BB%14.0%
ROS IP124
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 123 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
CH+4.8 (27%)
SL+3.1 (16%)
CT+1.2 (6%)
SI (23%)
CU (4%)
FB-3.7 (47%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 91 | 378 | 138 | 25 | 7 | 96% | 4.0 | 27.3% | 7.8% | 19.5% | 2.6% | 3.76 | 3.22 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 91 | 378 | 138 | 25 | 7 | 96% | 4.0 | 36.5% | 6.6% | 29.9% | 1.9% | 3.76 | 1.89 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 122 | 496 | 168 | 44 | 3 | 96% | 4.7 | 27.7% | 9.7% | 17.9% | 0.7% | 1.48 | 2.39 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 25 | 122 | 496 | 168 | 44 | 3 | 96% | 4.7 | 33.9% | 8.9% | 25.0% | 0.6% | 1.48 | 1.74 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 132 | 583 | 142 | 59 | 20 | 79% | 4.5 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 5.74 | 4.61 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 23 | 132 | 583 | 142 | 59 | 20 | 79% | 4.5 | 24.4% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 3.4% | 5.74 | 4.26 | +1.8 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 25 | 140 | 580 | 116 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 13.6% | 3.3% | 3.53 | 4.02 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 25 | 140 | 580 | 116 | 37 | 18 | 100% | 5.6 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 13.6% | 3.1% | 3.53 | 3.91 | +2.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 83 | 350 | 74 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.36 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 124 | 521 | 109 | 38 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 3.3% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 118 | 498 | 101 | 37 | 17 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 92 | 36 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 3.7% | 4.70 | 4.81 | +0.8 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 117 | 494 | 103 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 13.8% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 112 | 473 | 96 | 35 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 105 | 443 | 87 | 34 | 16 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.7% | 7.7% | 11.9% | 3.6% | 4.64 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 89 | 85 | 506 | 2145 | 425 | 155 | 74 | 96% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.23 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 848 | 168 | 61 | 29 | 95% | 5.7 | 19.8% | 7.2% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.23 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 103 | 95 | 485 | 2037 | 484 | 176 | 54 | 92% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.64 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 841 | 200 | 73 | 22 | 92% | 4.7 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gavin Stone (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% | — | 4.61 | 20.3% | 12.9% | 352 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Mat Latos R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.68 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 5.21 | 14.5% | 4.4% | 128 | +1.53 | 3.68 | 244 | 74 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 73 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 72 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 71 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 71 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 71 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 71 |
| Markus Solbach R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.61 | 16.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.76 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 111 | +1.15 | 3.25 | 391 | 70 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 70 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 69 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 69 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 69 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 69 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.76 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 3.0% | .313 | 3.72 | 22.3% | 12.4% | 224 | -0.04 | 2.53 | 507 | 69 |
| Barry Enright R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 29 | SP | 3.26 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | .306 | 3.78 | 13.3% | 9.2% | 226 | +0.52 | 3.11 | 315 | 69 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 68 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .314 | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 215 | +0.47 | 3.13 | 825 | 68 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 68 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 68 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 109 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 1.32 | 4.53 |
| Jerad Eickhoff ('19) | 4 | 109 | 21.0% | 6.9% | 1.43 | 4.12 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |
| Félix Hernández ('19) | 5 | 134 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.39 | 4.48 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |