Gavin Stone
P
Los Angeles Dodgers
+0.4
WAR
INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)
Age 27
RHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
MLB
Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2029
peak 1.4 · 2027
ERA4.49
FIP4.37
xFIP4.02
SIERA4.20
K%21.0%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%13.3%
IP124
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.4peak
2027
K†5050
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p4624.7%
K%
p3520.0%
xwOBA vs
p500.312
CH+4.8 (27%)
SL+3.1 (16%)
CT+1.2 (6%)
SI (23%)
CU (4%)
FB-3.7 (47%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 23 | 22 | 91 | 378 | 138 | 25 | 7 | 27.3% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 3.76 | 3.15 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 23 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 26 | 25 | 122 | 496 | 168 | 44 | 3 | 27.7% | 9.7% | 0.7% | 1.48 | 2.39 | +4.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 29 | 23 | 132 | 583 | 142 | 59 | 20 | 21.9% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.74 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 25 | 140 | 580 | 116 | 37 | 18 | 20.0% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 3.85 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.30 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 113 | 40 | 16 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.33 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 22 | 22 | 121 | 510 | 108 | 40 | 16 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 117 | 495 | 102 | 39 | 16 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 21 | 21 | 113 | 478 | 96 | 38 | 16 | 20.1% | 8.0% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 20 | 20 | 109 | 459 | 89 | 38 | 15 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 4.65 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 19 | 19 | 104 | 438 | 82 | 37 | 15 | 18.8% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 98 | 416 | 75 | 36 | 15 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 4.98 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 68 | 34 | 14 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.13 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 87 | 366 | 61 | 33 | 14 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.8% | 5.19 | 5.30 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 103 | 95 | 485 | 2037 | 484 | 176 | 51 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.66 | 3.56 | +9.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 39 | 200 | 841 | 200 | 73 | 21 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | 3.66 | 3.56 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Gavin Stone (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.1% | — | 4.41 | 21.2% | 13.4% | 362 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.12 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 3.0% | .339 | 3.39 | 23.5% | 12.8% | 29 | -0.73 | 3.11 | 166 | 76 |
| Jason Adam R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.37 | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .237 | 2.63 | 33.1% | 24.9% | 88 | -0.74 | 2.40 | 362 | 76 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 76 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.21 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.20 | 23.6% | 14.6% | 81 | -0.01 | 2.42 | 125 | 76 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2028 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 75 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.46 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -1.00 | 3.46 | 198 | 75 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Jack Dallas R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.58 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 169 | 75 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 74 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2028 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.6% | .241 | 3.99 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.34 | 3.47 | 149 | 74 |
| Rob Scahill R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.75 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.0% | .288 | 3.35 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.40 | 3.08 | 201 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2029 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 73 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 73 |
| Pedro Garcia R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.29 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.8% | .276 | 6.26 | 27.5% | 9.3% | 50 | +2.97 | 2.80 | 155 | 73 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 73 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 73 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 73 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2
MLB Debut 2023
Service 2.198 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2029
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2027 | Arb-2 | $3M | +1.4 | $12M | +$9M |
| 2028 | Arb-3 | $5M | +1.2 | $10M | +$6M |
| 2029 | Arb-4 | $6M | +1.1 | $10M | +$4M |
| Totals | $14M | $33M | +$19M | ||