Luke Weaver
P
New York Mets
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 31 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 8475vR 66
ERA3.46
FIP3.27
K%27.9%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%20.5%
ROS IP31
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6195.3
Whiff%
p8931.4%
K%
p8528.7%
xwOBA vs
p900.257
FB+3.4 (50%)
CH (35%)
CT-1.8 (15%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 19 | 19 | 105 | 426 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.9% | 5.1% | 10.8% | 0.6% | 1.62 | 2.74 | — |
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 19 | 19 | 105 | 426 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 100% | 5.5 | 20.7% | 4.5% | 16.2% | 0.5% | 1.62 | 2.22 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 21 | 119 | 497 | 137 | 24 | 11 | 95% | 5.4 | 24.5% | 4.8% | 19.6% | 2.3% | 2.64 | 2.88 | +3.5 |
| 2016 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 22 | 21 | 119 | 497 | 137 | 24 | 11 | 95% | 5.4 | 27.6% | 4.8% | 22.7% | 2.2% | 2.64 | 2.61 | +3.9 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 138 | 557 | 148 | 34 | 10 | 89% | 4.9 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 18.7% | 1.9% | 3.13 | 2.82 | +4.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 25 | 138 | 557 | 148 | 34 | 10 | 89% | 4.9 | 26.6% | 6.1% | 20.5% | 1.8% | 3.13 | 2.64 | +4.5 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 26 | 140 | 624 | 128 | 52 | 20 | 84% | 4.5 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.94 | 4.22 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 26 | 140 | 624 | 128 | 52 | 20 | 84% | 4.5 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.24 | +1.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 12 | 64 | 260 | 69 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.5% | 5.0% | 21.5% | 2.2% | 2.94 | 2.70 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 12 | 64 | 260 | 69 | 13 | 6 | 100% | 5.4 | 26.5% | 5.0% | 21.5% | 2.3% | 2.94 | 2.77 | +1.4 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 12 | 52 | 236 | 55 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 15.7% | 4.1% | 6.58 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 12 | 52 | 236 | 55 | 18 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 15.7% | 4.2% | 6.58 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 76 | 320 | 80 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 16.4% | 3.8% | 4.16 | 4.08 | +0.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 16 | 76 | 320 | 80 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 4.7 | 25.0% | 6.6% | 18.4% | 3.4% | 4.16 | 3.71 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 42 | 199 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 7% | 1.5 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 14.4% | 0.6% | 6.05 | 2.54 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 2 | 42 | 199 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 7% | 1.5 | 21.6% | 7.5% | 14.1% | 1.0% | 6.05 | 2.74 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 27 | 133 | 596 | 118 | 44 | 30 | 87% | 4.3 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 12.3% | 4.8% | 6.17 | 5.00 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 27 | 133 | 596 | 118 | 44 | 30 | 87% | 4.3 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 5.0% | 6.17 | 5.26 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 84 | 331 | 103 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.1% | 7.9% | 23.3% | 2.8% | 2.89 | 3.01 | +2.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 84 | 331 | 103 | 26 | 10 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.1% | 7.9% | 23.3% | 3.0% | 2.89 | 3.12 | +1.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 64 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 72 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 7.3% | 20.2% | 3.6% | 3.62 | 3.65 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 64 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 72 | 19 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.5% | 7.3% | 20.2% | 3.8% | 3.62 | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 37 | 0 | 39 | 150 | 43 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.7% | 6.7% | 22.0% | 1.3% | 1.85 | 2.26 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 0 | 31 | 130 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 20.5% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 3.27 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | NYM | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 7.4% | 20.5% | 2.9% | 3.45 | 3.26 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 32 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 70 | 280 | 79 | 20 | 6 | — | — | 28.3% | 7.0% | 21.3% | 2.1% | 2.56 | 2.70 | +1.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 32 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 70 | 295 | 79 | 20 | 6 | — | — | 26.9% | 6.7% | 20.2% | 1.9% | 2.56 | 2.74 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 73 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.8% | 7.9% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 56 | 0 | 58 | 246 | 64 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 3.5% | 4.13 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.41 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 73 | 21 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.8% | 7.9% | 19.0% | 3.2% | 3.93 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | NYM | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 63 | 20 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.9% | 8.4% | 17.6% | 3.5% | 4.13 | 4.27 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 55 | 20 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 8.9% | 16.1% | 3.8% | 4.40 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 503 | 106 | 968 | 4147 | 1017 | 307 | 141 | 21% | 1.9 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 3.84 | +17.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 104 | 22 | 200 | 857 | 210 | 63 | 29 | 21% | 1.9 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 3.84 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 362 | 160 | 1057 | 4458 | 1025 | 297 | 122 | 44% | 2.9 | 23.0% | 6.7% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.50 | +23.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 194 | 56 | 23 | 44% | 2.9 | 23.0% | 6.7% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.86 | 3.50 | +4.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Weaver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 27.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.26 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 175 | +0.23 | — | — | — |
| Joe Blanton R 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.30 | 22.4% | 4.6% | 2.7% | .272 | 3.78 | 23.5% | 17.0% | 124 | +0.48 | 3.13 | 240 | 57 |
| Collin McHugh R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.07 | 25.9% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .259 | 2.10 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 133 | -1.97 | 1.79 | 806 | 56 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 55 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 54 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.20 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 4.1% | .291 | 5.21 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.01 | 3.05 | 176 | 53 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 53 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 53 |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 27.7% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .298 | 3.52 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 58 | -0.08 | 3.52 | 316 | 52 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 52 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 51 |
| Nick Martinez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .286 | 3.65 | 17.5% | 12.9% | 413 | -0.12 | 2.97 | 1,073 | 51 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 51 |
| Jay Jackson R 2025 · 2.91 FIP | 31 | SU | 2.91 | 32.4% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .272 | 3.61 | 29.4% | 19.9% | 41 | +0.70 | 2.41 | 261 | 51 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 29.9% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .235 | 4.87 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 85 | +1.74 | 2.00 | 320 | 51 |
| George Kontos R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.59 | 25.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | .287 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.56 | 290 | 51 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 51 |
| Spencer Patton R 2027 · 3.09 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.09 | 27.9% | 8.7% | 2.3% | .305 | 5.10 | 21.4% | 9.7% | 88 | +2.01 | 2.74 | 239 | 50 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 50 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 2.95 FIP | 32 | SU | 2.95 | 23.0% | 5.9% | 1.9% | .311 | 4.03 | 19.7% | 13.8% | 83 | +1.08 | 2.95 | 260 | 50 |
| Gregory Infante R 2025 · 3.64 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.64 | 22.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 230 | 49 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 61 | 26.3% | 8.2% | 1.34 | 4.16 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Mike Mayers ('23) | 5 | 47 | 24.3% | 7.8% | 1.50 | 4.47 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |