Luke Weaver
P
New York Mets
+0.8
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
MLB
Svc 8.0 · Ctrl thru 2027
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.07
xFIP4.74
SIERA4.47
K%26.6%
BB%7.7%
K-BB%18.8%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†6060
FB+3.4 (52%)
CH (34%)
CT-1.8 (14%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | 19 | 19 | 105 | 426 | 88 | 19 | 2 | 15.9% | 5.1% | 0.6% | 1.62 | 2.73 | +3.1 |
| 2016 | 22 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 22 | 21 | 119 | 497 | 137 | 24 | 11 | 24.5% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 2.64 | 2.95 | +3.2 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 28 | 25 | 138 | 557 | 148 | 34 | 10 | 24.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 3.13 | 2.87 | +3.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 26 | 140 | 624 | 128 | 52 | 20 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 3.3% | 4.94 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 12 | 64 | 260 | 69 | 13 | 6 | 26.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 2.94 | 2.80 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 12 | 12 | 52 | 236 | 55 | 18 | 10 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 6.58 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 16 | 16 | 76 | 320 | 80 | 21 | 11 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.16 | 4.05 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 2 | 42 | 199 | 43 | 15 | 2 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 0.6% | 6.05 | 2.52 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 31 | 27 | 133 | 596 | 118 | 44 | 30 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.17 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 62 | 0 | 84 | 331 | 103 | 26 | 10 | 31.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 2.89 | 3.08 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | New York Yankees | 64 | 0 | 65 | 262 | 72 | 19 | 10 | 27.5% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 3.62 | 3.63 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | New York Mets | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| ROS | 32 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 63 | 267 | 72 | 21 | 9 | 26.9% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 32 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 70 | 297 | 76 | 24 | 10 | 25.5% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.71 | 3.66 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 69 | 23 | 10 | 24.5% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.42 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 12 | 12 | 64 | 268 | 64 | 22 | 10 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.46 | 4.49 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | ARI | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 52 | 21 | 9 | 22.2% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.71 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 332 | 160 | 1025 | 4338 | 986 | 290 | 123 | 22.7% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.59 | +19.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 65 | 31 | 200 | 847 | 192 | 57 | 24 | 22.7% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.59 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Weaver (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.05 | 26.9% | 7.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.49 | 23.8% | 15.5% | 190 | +0.44 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 70 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 69 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 69 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 68 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 24.5% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .291 | 5.41 | 18.0% | 8.4% | 36 | +1.42 | 2.93 | 176 | 67 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.88 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 2.7% | .247 | 3.28 | 23.0% | 13.8% | 141 | -0.60 | 2.80 | 284 | 67 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 67 |
| Blake Wood R 2025 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 67 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 66 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 65 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 65 |
| Ryan Madson R 2028 · 2.94 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.94 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .244 | 2.97 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.03 | 1.43 | 240 | 65 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 65 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 64 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.29 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.29 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.73 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.56 | 2.73 | 316 | 64 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.68 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.49 | 2.89 | 326 | 64 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 64 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 63 |
| Pedro Strop R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.02 | 26.0% | 10.0% | 1.5% | .263 | 3.46 | 25.3% | 16.4% | 101 | +0.44 | 2.58 | 277 | 63 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 63 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status FA
MLB Debut 2016
Service 8.651 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2027
First FA Year 2028
OPT
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +0.8 | $3M | -$8M |
| 2027 | Ext / FA-deal | $11M | +0.5 | $2M | -$9M |
| Totals | $22M | $5M | -$17M | ||
| Options · projected decision | |||
| 2028 | CLUB OPT | $2025.0M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |
| 2029 | CLUB OPT | $2.5M / $0.0M buyout | DECLINE |