Luke Weaver — OGILVIE

Luke Weaver P Pittsburgh Pirates

Age 32 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION55 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 9385vR 77

ERA3.71

FIP3.51

K%27.1%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%19.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p8630.9%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p870.276

FB+3.4 (51%)

CH (35%)

CT-1.8 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	21	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	19	19	105	426	88	19	2	100%	5.5	15.9%	5.1%	10.8%	0.6%	1.62	2.73	—
2015	21	A+ RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	19	19	105	426	88	19	2	100%	5.5	20.7%	4.5%	16.2%	0.5%	1.62	2.22	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	21	119	497	137	24	11	95%	5.4	24.5%	4.8%	19.6%	2.5%	2.64	3.00	+2.8
2016	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	21	119	497	137	24	11	95%	5.4	27.6%	4.8%	22.7%	2.2%	2.64	2.61	+3.5
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	25	138	557	148	34	10	89%	4.9	24.9%	6.3%	18.7%	2.0%	3.13	2.86	+3.5
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	25	138	557	148	34	10	89%	4.9	26.6%	6.1%	20.5%	1.8%	3.13	2.64	+4.0
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	26	140	624	128	52	20	84%	4.5	19.9%	8.5%	11.3%	3.4%	4.94	4.35	+0.9
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	26	140	624	128	52	20	84%	4.5	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	3.2%	4.94	4.24	+1.1
2019	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	64	260	69	13	6	100%	5.4	26.5%	5.0%	21.5%	2.4%	2.94	2.83	+1.7
2019	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	64	260	69	13	6	100%	5.4	26.5%	5.0%	21.5%	2.3%	2.94	2.77	+1.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	52	236	55	18	10	100%	4.3	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	4.5%	6.58	4.56	+0.2
2020	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	12	12	52	236	55	18	10	100%	4.3	23.3%	7.6%	15.7%	4.2%	6.58	4.52	+0.2
2021	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	16	76	320	80	21	11	100%	4.7	22.5%	6.2%	16.4%	4.2%	4.16	4.30	+0.5
2021	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	16	76	320	80	21	11	100%	4.7	25.0%	6.6%	18.4%	3.4%	4.16	3.71	+1.1
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	42	199	43	15	2	7%	1.5	21.8%	7.5%	14.4%	0.6%	6.05	2.54	+1.0
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	42	199	43	15	2	7%	1.5	21.6%	7.5%	14.1%	1.0%	6.05	2.74	+0.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	133	596	118	44	30	87%	4.3	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	4.8%	6.17	5.01	-0.2
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	27	133	596	118	44	30	87%	4.3	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	4.8%	6.17	5.01	-0.2
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	27	133	596	118	44	30	87%	4.3	19.8%	7.4%	12.4%	5.0%	6.17	5.26	-0.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	62	0	84	331	103	26	10	0%	1.4	31.1%	7.9%	23.3%	2.8%	2.89	3.02	+1.5
2024	30	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	62	0	84	331	103	26	10	0%	1.4	31.1%	7.9%	23.3%	2.8%	2.89	3.02	+1.5
2024	30	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	62	0	84	331	103	26	10	0%	1.4	31.1%	7.9%	23.3%	3.0%	2.89	3.12	+1.4
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	64	0	65	262	72	19	10	0%	1.0	27.5%	7.3%	20.2%	3.6%	3.62	3.66	+0.7
2025	31	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	64	0	65	262	72	19	10	0%	1.0	27.5%	7.3%	20.2%	3.6%	3.62	3.66	+0.7
2025	31	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	64	0	65	262	72	19	10	0%	1.0	27.5%	7.3%	20.2%	3.8%	3.62	3.76	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			324	106	778	3348	805	240	114	33%	2.4	24.0%	7.2%	16.9%	3.4%	4.59	3.86	+6.4
▸ 2026 season
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	54	0	55	219	59	14	4	0%	1.0	26.9%	6.4%	20.5%	2.0%	2.60	2.72	+1.2
YTD	32	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	54	0	55	219	59	14	4	0%	1.0	26.9%	6.4%	20.5%	2.0%	2.60	2.72	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	32	MLB RAW	PIT	54	0	55	219	59	14	4	0%	1.0	26.9%	6.4%	20.5%	1.8%	2.60	2.64	+1.3
SO FAR	32	MLB RAW	PIT	54	0	55	219	59	14	4	0%	1.0	26.9%	6.4%	20.5%	1.8%	2.60	2.64	+1.3
ROS	32	MLB MLE	PIT	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	3.3%	3.71	3.51	+0.1
ROS	32	MLB CTX	PIT	6	0	6	25	7	2	1	0%	1.0	27.1%	7.2%	19.9%	3.0%	3.58	3.38	+0.1
2026 TOT	32	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	61	244	66	16	5	—	—	27.0%	6.5%	20.5%	2.0%	2.71	2.79	+1.4
FULL	32	MLB A+C	PIT	—	—	61	258	66	16	5	—	—	25.4%	6.1%	19.3%	1.8%	2.70	2.73	+1.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	PIT	61	0	64	271	71	21	9	0%	1.1	26.2%	7.7%	18.6%	3.2%	3.96	3.99	+0.4
2028	34	MLB MLE	PIT	56	0	58	246	62	20	9	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	3.5%	4.16	4.30	+0.2
2027	33	MLB CTX	PIT	61	0	64	270	71	21	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	7.7%	18.6%	3.0%	3.83	3.86	+0.4
2028	34	MLB CTX	PIT	55	0	58	245	62	20	8	0%	1.1	25.3%	8.2%	17.2%	3.2%	4.02	4.16	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		446	106	907	3889	945	283	131	24%	2.0	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	3.4%	4.49	3.81	+7.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		98	23	200	858	208	62	29	24%	2.0	24.3%	7.3%	17.0%	3.4%	4.49	3.81	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		379	160	1073	4527	1041	301	130	42%	2.8	23.0%	6.7%	16.4%	2.9%	3.87	3.58	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	30	200	844	194	56	24	42%	2.8	23.0%	6.7%	16.4%	2.9%	3.87	3.58	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Weaver (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.03	27.2%	7.7%	3.4%	—	4.14	25.8%	17.9%	122	+0.11	—	—	—
Collin McHugh R 2019 · 4.25 FIP	32	SW	4.25	25.9%	9.5%	3.9%	.259	2.09	28.8%	24.3%	133	-2.16	1.77	806	67
Radhames Liz R 2015 · 2.81 FIP	31	SW	2.81	24.8%	9.2%	1.2%	.283	4.45	21.8%	7.9%	23	+1.64	2.81	110	64
Bud Norris R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	27.7%	9.0%	2.9%	.298	3.65	27.3%	20.0%	58	+0.14	3.51	316	63
Wade Davis R 2018 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	29.9%	10.0%	2.7%	.235	5.00	20.2%	8.1%	85	+1.67	2.00	320	61
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	60
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.92	176	60
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	60
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	3.55	290	59
Daniel Hudson R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	23.4%	8.2%	2.6%	.240	3.24	33.4%	25.7%	97	-0.37	1.68	468	59
Nick Martinez R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.286	3.68	17.2%	12.9%	474	+0.06	2.94	1,134	58
Brad Brach R 2018 · 3.44 FIP	32	SU	3.44	20.8%	9.0%	1.7%	.338	4.06	24.4%	11.0%	97	+0.62	2.69	410	58
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	58
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	58
Pedro Strop R 2017 · 3.08 FIP	32	SU	3.08	26.0%	10.0%	1.7%	.263	3.43	25.3%	16.4%	101	+0.35	2.56	277	58
Josh Fields R 2018 · 3.48 FIP	32	SU	3.48	21.4%	6.5%	2.5%	.224	7.56	18.9%	9.5%	25	+4.08	1.90	238	57
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	57
Tommy Hunter R 2018 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	18.9%	5.2%	2.1%	.296	2.78	24.5%	18.6%	25	-0.52	2.78	316	57
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	57
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	474	57
Fernando Salas R 2017 · 3.50 FIP	32	SU	3.50	21.3%	6.1%	2.6%	.326	4.15	19.4%	14.1%	92	+0.65	2.71	288	57

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	64	26.3%	7.8%	1.30	4.12
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Blake Parker ('21)	1.2	60	26.6%	7.3%	1.40	3.36
Adbert Alzolay ('23)	1.1	70	26.1%	7.0%	1.32	3.84
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47