Alex Faedo — OGILVIE

Alex Faedo P Salt Lake Bees

Age 30 RHP 6'6" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.57

FIP4.81

K%23.0%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p8731.1%

p5122.4%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

SL+3.4 (40%)

SI (5%)

CH-2.6 (20%)

FB-2.9 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	121	500	110	35	18	100%	5.0	17.4%	7.8%	9.6%	3.8%	4.02	4.72	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	121	500	110	35	18	100%	5.0	22.0%	7.0%	15.0%	3.6%	4.02	4.08	—
2019	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	22	22	115	473	134	25	17	100%	5.2	22.9%	5.8%	17.1%	3.3%	3.90	3.73	—
2019	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	22	22	115	473	134	25	17	100%	5.2	28.3%	5.3%	23.0%	3.6%	3.90	3.34	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	14	69	304	64	28	7	88%	4.3	18.0%	10.2%	7.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.52	+0.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	14	69	304	64	28	7	88%	4.3	21.1%	9.2%	11.8%	2.3%	4.67	3.78	+0.9
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	20	96	387	96	27	17	87%	4.2	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	4.8%	4.20	4.69	+0.2
2023	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	20	96	387	96	27	17	87%	4.2	22.8%	7.0%	15.8%	4.8%	4.20	4.69	+0.2
2023	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	20	96	387	96	27	17	87%	4.2	24.8%	7.0%	17.8%	4.4%	4.20	4.24	+0.7
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	60	263	59	32	9	18%	1.5	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.8%	3.58	4.75	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	7	60	263	59	32	9	18%	1.5	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	3.8%	3.58	4.75	-0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	7	60	263	59	32	9	18%	1.5	22.4%	12.2%	10.3%	3.4%	3.58	4.67	-0.1
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	8	37	8	6	1	17%	1.4	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.81	—
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	8	37	8	6	1	17%	1.4	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.81	—
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	8	37	8	6	1	17%	1.4	21.6%	16.2%	5.4%	2.7%	4.32	4.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			64	30	176	752	157	73	28	47%	2.7	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	3.7%	4.51	4.63	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	18	2	23	101	22	11	3	11%	1.3	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	1.4%	3.91	3.66	—
YTD	30	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	18	2	23	101	22	11	3	11%	1.3	18.1%	10.4%	7.7%	1.4%	3.91	3.66	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	ROK RAW	LAA	5	2	5	23	5	2	2	40%	1.1	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	8.7%	5.06	7.14	—
2026	30	AAA RAW	LAA	13	0	18	78	17	9	1	0%	1.4	21.8%	11.5%	10.3%	1.3%	3.57	3.42	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	26	6	3	1	0%	1.0	23.0%	10.9%	12.0%	3.4%	4.57	4.81	-0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	29	127	28	14	4	—	—	22.0%	10.9%	11.1%	3.1%	4.05	3.90	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	63	266	59	30	10	100%	6.3	22.2%	11.3%	11.0%	3.7%	4.85	5.04	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	58	246	53	29	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	11.7%	9.8%	3.9%	5.11	5.29	-0.3
2027	31	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	23	97	22	11	4	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.3%	11.0%	3.7%	4.85	5.04	-0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	LAA	5	5	32	135	29	16	5	100%	6.4	21.4%	11.7%	9.8%	3.9%	5.11	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	39	231	988	208	100	37	53%	3.1	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.7%	4.63	4.66	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		64	34	200	853	180	86	32	53%	3.1	21.1%	10.1%	11.0%	3.7%	4.63	4.66	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		149	90	494	2065	424	171	75	60%	3.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	3.6%	4.07	4.41	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	36	200	837	172	69	30	60%	3.3	20.5%	8.3%	12.2%	3.6%	4.07	4.41	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Faedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	23.0%	10.9%	3.4%	—	5.16	21.8%	10.4%	121	+0.35	—	—	—
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	72
Josh Zeid R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	30	SW	5.35	18.3%	10.8%	4.4%	.334	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	265	71
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	71
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	70
Steve Johnson R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	29	SW	4.53	20.3%	8.9%	3.7%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	152	69
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	69
Justin Masterson R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	30	SP-	4.10	18.2%	10.5%	2.2%	.307	3.73	17.3%	6.4%	196	-0.37	3.50	269	68
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	68
Aaron Wilkerson R 2019 · 4.67 FIP	30	SP-	4.67	20.9%	9.8%	3.8%	.291	3.33	24.6%	19.0%	112	-1.34	2.75	902	65
Mitch Atkins R 2016 · 3.65 FIP	30	SP-	3.65	21.4%	8.2%	2.4%	.341	4.77	14.3%	6.2%	78	+1.12	3.65	205	65
Tim Adleman R 2017 · 5.35 FIP	29	SP-	5.35	20.3%	9.4%	5.1%	.276	4.30	22.8%	15.0%	117	-1.05	3.63	605	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	64
Nick Tropeano R 2021 · 4.24 FIP	30	SP-	4.24	21.5%	12.1%	2.6%	.302	4.45	20.8%	1.9%	21	+0.21	2.34	446	63
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	204	63
Deck McGuire R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	29	SW	5.28	18.4%	13.2%	3.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	63
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	63
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	63
Paul Clemens R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SW	4.72	14.9%	11.0%	2.7%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	247	63
Yohan Pino R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	31	SP-	4.13	17.8%	5.8%	3.3%	.312	5.33	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.20	4.13	133	62
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	22.2%	11.3%	1.41	4.83
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64