Alex Faedo
P
ACL Angels
Age 30
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION5 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125115vR 106
ERA4.59
FIP4.84
K%23.0%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SL+3.4 (40%)
SI (5%)
CH-2.6 (20%)
FB-2.9 (40%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 121 | 500 | 110 | 35 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 4.02 | 4.50 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 24 | 121 | 500 | 110 | 35 | 18 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 15.0% | 3.6% | 4.02 | 4.08 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 22 | 22 | 115 | 473 | 134 | 25 | 17 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.39 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 22 | 22 | 115 | 473 | 134 | 25 | 17 | 100% | 5.2 | 28.3% | 5.3% | 23.0% | 3.6% | 3.90 | 3.34 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 14 | 69 | 304 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 88% | 4.3 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.60 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 16 | 14 | 69 | 304 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 88% | 4.3 | 21.1% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 2.3% | 4.67 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 20 | 96 | 387 | 96 | 27 | 17 | 87% | 4.2 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 16.0% | 5.1% | 4.20 | 4.86 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 20 | 96 | 387 | 96 | 27 | 17 | 87% | 4.2 | 24.8% | 7.0% | 17.8% | 4.4% | 4.20 | 4.24 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 60 | 263 | 59 | 32 | 9 | 18% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 3.58 | 4.85 | -0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 7 | 60 | 263 | 59 | 32 | 9 | 18% | 1.5 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 3.58 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 17% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 16.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 6 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 17% | 1.4 | 21.6% | 16.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.32 | 4.90 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | ROK | ACL Angels | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAA | 64 | 0 | 67 | 285 | 66 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.0% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.59 | 4.84 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 73 | 308 | 71 | 33 | 12 | — | — | 22.9% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 4.62 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 59 | 30 | 10 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 58 | 246 | 53 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.88 | 5.07 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.5% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 4.0% | 5.15 | 5.33 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 38 | 224 | 955 | 201 | 97 | 36 | 53% | 3.1 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 34 | 200 | 854 | 180 | 87 | 32 | 53% | 3.1 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 3.8% | 4.62 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 90 | 476 | 1987 | 412 | 164 | 73 | 66% | 3.5 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.08 | 4.40 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 38 | 200 | 835 | 173 | 69 | 31 | 66% | 3.5 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 3.7% | 4.08 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Faedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.84 | 23.0% | 11.0% | 3.5% | — | 5.19 | 21.9% | 10.4% | 121 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Fabio Castillo R 2024 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 73 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 72 |
| Justin Masterson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 69 |
| Aaron Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.76 | 20.9% | 9.8% | 4.0% | .291 | 3.31 | 24.6% | 19.0% | 112 | -1.45 | 2.75 | 902 | 68 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 67 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 67 |
| Tim Adleman R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 29 | SP- | 5.42 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 5.2% | .276 | 4.57 | 22.8% | 15.0% | 117 | -0.85 | 3.61 | 605 | 66 |
| Yohan Pino R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 31 | SP- | 3.95 | 17.8% | 5.8% | 2.9% | .312 | 5.48 | 15.2% | 11.6% | 35 | +1.53 | 3.95 | 133 | 65 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 65 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | .296 | 4.88 | 15.2% | 7.6% | 214 | -0.02 | 4.83 | 294 | 65 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 65 |
| Burch Smith R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.94 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 2.2% | .271 | 4.11 | 14.9% | 9.0% | 43 | +0.17 | 3.39 | 382 | 64 |
| Raynel Espinal R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.05 | 23.9% | 10.5% | 3.0% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53 | 507 | 64 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SP | 5.22 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.3% | .333 | 4.92 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.30 | 2.32 | 676 | 63 |
| Hiram Burgos R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SP | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.5% | 4.9% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 355 | 62 |
| Tyler Cloyd R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.58 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 3.6% | .293 | 5.01 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 170 | +0.43 | 3.89 | 250 | 62 |
| Carlos Frías R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.59 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .369 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 204 | 62 |
| Chris Mazza R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 30 | SP- | 3.90 | 21.3% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .348 | 3.84 | 21.4% | 13.5% | 111 | -0.06 | 3.27 | 563 | 62 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.84 | 17.3% | 10.9% | 1.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 272 | 61 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.17 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.66 | 17.1% | 11.3% | 114 | -0.51 | 3.26 | 493 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 1.44 | 4.86 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |