Alex Faedo
P
Durham Bulls
+0.1
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'6" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.41
FIP4.65
xFIP4.43
SIERA4.28
K%22.9%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.1%
IP57
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p8731.1%
K%
p5122.4%
xwOBA vs
p370.327
SL+3.4 (40%)
SI (5%)
CH-2.6 (20%)
FB-2.9 (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 24 | 24 | 121 | 500 | 110 | 35 | 18 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 4.02 | 4.72 | +0.8 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 22 | 22 | 115 | 473 | 134 | 25 | 17 | 22.9% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 3.90 | 3.72 | +2.1 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 16 | 14 | 69 | 304 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.54 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 23 | 20 | 96 | 387 | 96 | 27 | 17 | 23.2% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.20 | 4.68 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 40 | 7 | 60 | 263 | 59 | 32 | 9 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 3.58 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 6 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.32 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TB | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TB | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 52 | 25 | 8 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.86 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TB | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.5% | 4.87 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | TB | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | TB | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 42 | 23 | 8 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.24 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | TB | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 38 | 22 | 7 | 19.6% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 5.29 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | TB | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 34 | 21 | 7 | 18.9% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 5.45 | 5.55 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 131 | 88 | 471 | 1964 | 407 | 162 | 73 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 4.44 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 37 | 200 | 835 | 173 | 69 | 31 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 4.07 | 4.44 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alex Faedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 22.9% | 10.6% | 3.4% | — | 4.97 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 159 | +0.22 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 82 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 80 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 80 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 78 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 78 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.06 | 24.4% | 11.8% | 2.8% | .301 | 3.94 | 24.1% | 15.2% | 140 | -0.12 | 1.69 | 468 | 78 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.56 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.73 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +1.17 | 2.72 | 392 | 78 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 77 |
| AJ Ramos R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.96 | 27.9% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .288 | 5.08 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 20 | +1.12 | 2.55 | 266 | 76 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 76 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.84 | 25.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .282 | 3.13 | 28.4% | 19.9% | 104 | -0.71 | 2.27 | 445 | 75 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 75 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 75 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .205 | 3.95 | 28.3% | 18.8% | 192 | -0.04 | 2.52 | 417 | 75 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 75 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.63 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 124 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.