Emerson Hancock
P
Seattle Mariners
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 213 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.0 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION99 act + 66 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111102vR 93
ERA3.99
FIP3.97
K%22.0%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%14.5%
ROS IP66
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 166 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6295.4
Whiff%
p3923.7%
K%
p6024.1%
xwOBA vs
p420.321
FB+4.8 (62%)
SL+0.9 (18%)
SI (24%)
CU (3%)
CH (5%)
CT (12%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 45 | 179 | 43 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 0.6% | 2.62 | 3.21 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 12 | 12 | 45 | 179 | 43 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 14.5% | 0.6% | 2.62 | 2.61 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 21 | 21 | 98 | 413 | 92 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 3.75 | 5.98 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 21 | 21 | 98 | 413 | 92 | 38 | 16 | 100% | 4.7 | 22.3% | 9.2% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 3.75 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 110 | 460 | 113 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 4.34 | 4.65 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 110 | 460 | 113 | 41 | 10 | 100% | 4.8 | 24.6% | 8.9% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 4.34 | 3.35 | +2.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 661 | 105 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 4.71 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 29 | 155 | 661 | 105 | 55 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 15.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.65 | +1.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 25 | 135 | 587 | 120 | 46 | 20 | 76% | 4.1 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 4.32 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 25 | 135 | 587 | 120 | 46 | 20 | 76% | 4.1 | 20.4% | 7.8% | 12.6% | 3.4% | 5.01 | 4.27 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 18 | 18 | 99 | 390 | 94 | 25 | 12 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.1% | 6.4% | 17.7% | 3.1% | 3.17 | 3.57 | +2.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 66 | 280 | 61 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 66 | 279 | 61 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 3.95 | 3.93 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 166 | 670 | 155 | 46 | 21 | — | — | 23.2% | 6.8% | 16.4% | 3.2% | 3.50 | 3.73 | +3.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 166 | 699 | 155 | 46 | 21 | — | — | 22.2% | 6.6% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 3.48 | 3.69 | +3.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 80 | 339 | 71 | 26 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 77 | 323 | 73 | 23 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 3.5% | 4.43 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 66 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 21.8% | 7.4% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 60 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 3.9% | 4.72 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 53 | 21 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 4.94 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 76 | 321 | 68 | 24 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 3.3% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 73 | 308 | 69 | 22 | 11 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4% | 3.4% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 63 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 6.2 | 21.8% | 7.4% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.49 | 4.56 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 21 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 21.1% | 7.7% | 13.3% | 3.8% | 4.67 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 50 | 20 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.2% | 8.1% | 12.1% | 4.1% | 4.88 | 5.03 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 124 | 118 | 668 | 2806 | 571 | 207 | 101 | 95% | 5.4 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +8.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 35 | 200 | 840 | 171 | 62 | 30 | 95% | 5.4 | 20.4% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 4.35 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 136 | 128 | 642 | 2690 | 510 | 236 | 95 | 94% | 4.7 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.00 | 4.54 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 838 | 159 | 74 | 29 | 94% | 4.7 | 18.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.00 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emerson Hancock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 17.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% | — | 4.50 | 21.8% | 14.4% | 229 | -0.47 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2025 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.15 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.87 | 247 | 73 |
| Kumar Rocker R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.16 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.95 | 230 | 73 |
| Joe Wieland R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.50 | 18.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .359 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 270 | 72 |
| Zack Wheeler R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.75 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .327 | 3.09 | 23.0% | 16.8% | 449 | -1.66 | 2.31 | 1,536 | 72 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 72 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.71 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 366 | 72 |
| David Phelps R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 2.4% | .299 | 2.83 | 29.9% | 20.6% | 142 | -1.11 | 2.51 | 373 | 71 |
| Jason Forjet R 2025 · 4.39 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.39 | 15.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | .260 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 197 | 71 |
| Nate Karns R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.03 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 4.09 | 25.1% | 15.9% | 140 | +0.06 | 3.92 | 287 | 71 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 4.90 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.46 | 4.44 | 200 | 70 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.95 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .343 | 4.35 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | +0.40 | 3.26 | 493 | 70 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 70 |
| Brad Peacock R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.9% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .302 | 3.31 | 29.4% | 20.4% | 289 | -0.58 | 2.88 | 533 | 70 |
| Bryan Evans R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 28 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 2.8% | .250 | 4.75 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.81 | 3.72 | 231 | 69 |
| Yariel Rodríguez R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.80 | 25.1% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .275 | 3.77 | 24.2% | 12.3% | 89 | -0.03 | 2.60 | 196 | 69 |
| Jesse Scholtens R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 27 | SP | 3.97 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% | .314 | 4.44 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 215 | +0.47 | 3.13 | 825 | 69 |
| Connor Grey R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.88 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .286 | 4.32 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 104 | +0.44 | 2.81 | 461 | 69 |
| Deck McGuire R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.43 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .287 | 3.97 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 277 | -1.46 | 3.23 | 622 | 68 |
| Josh DeGraaf R 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.58 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.71 | 320 | 67 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.93 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.49 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.56 | 3.57 | 283 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 73 | 20.7% | 7.8% | 1.42 | 4.68 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |