Emerson Hancock — OGILVIE

Emerson Hancock P Seattle Mariners

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 213 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2028 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION139 act + 7 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA4.08

FIP4.05

K%21.0%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%14.5%

ROS IP7

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†4050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

FB+4.8 (63%)

SL+0.9 (16%)

SI (23%)

CU (4%)

CH (5%)

CT (12%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.343 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.1	$0.6M	+$0.5M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$4M	+$0.9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	45	179	43	17	1	100%	3.7	18.8%	10.8%	8.0%	0.6%	2.62	3.24	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	45	179	43	17	1	100%	3.7	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	0.6%	2.62	2.61	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	98	413	92	38	16	100%	4.7	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	5.1%	3.75	5.67	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	98	413	92	38	16	100%	4.7	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	3.9%	3.75	4.50	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	460	113	41	10	100%	4.8	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.30	+0.8
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	460	113	41	10	100%	4.8	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.30	+0.8
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	460	113	41	10	100%	4.8	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	2.2%	4.34	3.35	+2.1
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	661	105	55	22	100%	5.3	14.2%	7.8%	6.4%	3.3%	3.95	4.71	+0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	661	105	55	22	100%	5.3	14.2%	7.8%	6.4%	3.3%	3.95	4.71	+0.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	155	661	105	55	22	100%	5.3	15.9%	8.3%	7.6%	3.3%	3.95	4.65	+0.4
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	135	587	120	46	20	76%	4.1	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	3.4%	5.01	4.34	+0.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	135	587	120	46	20	76%	4.1	18.8%	7.6%	11.2%	3.4%	5.01	4.34	+0.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	25	135	587	120	46	20	76%	4.1	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.4%	5.01	4.27	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			62	56	301	1266	235	84	48	90%	4.9	18.6%	6.6%	11.9%	3.8%	4.24	4.45	+1.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.6%	3.57	3.90	+1.7
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.6%	3.57	3.90	+1.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	SEA	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.5%	3.57	3.85	+1.7
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SEA	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.5%	3.57	3.85	+1.7
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SEA	1	1	7	28	6	2	1	100%	6.7	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	3.5%	4.08	4.05	+0.1
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SEA	1	1	7	30	6	2	1	100%	7.0	21.0%	6.5%	14.5%	3.4%	4.03	4.00	+0.1
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SEA	—	—	145	594	132	33	21	—	—	22.2%	5.5%	16.7%	3.5%	3.59	3.91	+1.7
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SEA	—	—	145	614	132	33	21	—	—	21.5%	5.3%	16.1%	3.4%	3.59	3.84	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	80	339	69	23	12	100%	6.2	20.4%	6.7%	13.7%	3.6%	4.54	4.56	+0.3
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	77	323	71	20	12	100%	5.9	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	3.7%	4.49	4.45	+0.4
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	72	304	64	19	12	100%	6.0	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	3.9%	4.59	4.66	+0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	67	283	58	19	12	100%	6.1	20.4%	6.7%	13.6%	4.1%	4.77	4.89	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	76	321	65	21	11	100%	5.8	20.4%	6.7%	13.7%	3.5%	4.49	4.51	+0.3
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	73	308	67	19	11	100%	6.1	21.8%	6.1%	15.7%	3.6%	4.44	4.40	+0.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	68	287	61	18	11	100%	6.2	21.1%	6.4%	14.7%	3.8%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	64	270	55	18	11	100%	5.8	20.4%	6.7%	13.6%	4.0%	4.71	4.83	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	104	589	2481	489	162	93	95%	5.4	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	3.8%	4.38	4.33	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	35	200	842	166	55	32	95%	5.4	19.7%	6.5%	13.2%	3.8%	4.38	4.33	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		143	135	681	2866	535	235	99	94%	4.8	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	3.4%	4.03	4.45	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	841	157	69	29	94%	4.8	18.7%	8.2%	10.5%	3.4%	4.03	4.45	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emerson Hancock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.93	17.2%	8.2%	3.4%	—	4.55	21.1%	14.7%	229	-0.38	—	—	—
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	73
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	73
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	72
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	72
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	72
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	373	71
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	71
Bryan Evans R 2015 · 4.13 FIP	28	SP	4.13	17.8%	6.2%	3.2%	.250	4.60	19.7%	14.9%	132	+0.47	3.89	231	71
Zack Wheeler R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	21.0%	10.1%	3.9%	.327	3.09	23.0%	16.8%	449	-1.66	2.28	1,586	71
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	71
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	71
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	70
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	70
Nate Karns R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	27	SP	3.98	23.3%	8.9%	3.1%	.281	4.07	25.1%	15.9%	140	+0.09	3.88	287	70
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	69
Deck McGuire R 2016 · 5.23 FIP	27	SP	5.23	17.2%	8.5%	4.6%	.287	4.05	19.8%	9.4%	277	-1.18	3.41	622	69
Nick Tropeano R 2018 · 5.28 FIP	27	SP	5.28	20.3%	9.2%	5.0%	.251	4.48	21.5%	11.8%	155	-0.80	2.34	446	69
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	68
Jesse Scholtens R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	27	SP	4.18	20.8%	8.2%	3.3%	.314	4.58	19.0%	11.3%	215	+0.40	3.40	876	68
Raynel Espinal R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	27	SP-	3.90	22.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.313	4.01	22.3%	12.4%	224	+0.11	2.48	507	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	74	20.2%	6.8%	1.45	4.66
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47