Emerson Hancock
P
Seattle Mariners
+0.2
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 213 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2028
ERA4.82
FIP4.81
xFIP3.06
SIERA2.98
K%18.2%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%9.9%
IP80
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2028
K†4555
FB Velo
p5594.9
Whiff%
p3823.6%
K%
p7426.7%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
FB+4.8 (60%)
SL+0.9 (23%)
SI (24%)
CU (2%)
CH (6%)
CT (11%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 12 | 12 | 45 | 179 | 43 | 17 | 1 | 18.8% | 10.8% | 0.7% | 2.62 | 3.24 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 21 | 21 | 98 | 413 | 92 | 38 | 16 | 18.0% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 3.75 | 5.66 | -0.4 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 23 | 23 | 110 | 460 | 113 | 41 | 10 | 21.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 29 | 29 | 155 | 661 | 105 | 55 | 22 | 14.7% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 3.95 | 4.76 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 33 | 25 | 135 | 587 | 120 | 46 | 20 | 19.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.01 | 4.26 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 4 | 4 | 24 | 85 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 29.4% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 2.28 | 2.50 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 53 | 18 | 8 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 4.07 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 80 | 324 | 78 | 22 | 10 | 24.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 3.54 | 3.51 | +1.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 74 | 26 | 11 | 21.7% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.43 | 4.39 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 79 | 334 | 78 | 23 | 11 | 23.2% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 74 | 23 | 11 | 22.7% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 4.29 | 4.29 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 313 | 69 | 22 | 11 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 300 | 64 | 22 | 10 | 21.5% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 4.44 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 21 | 10 | 20.8% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 4.56 | 4.63 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 272 | 55 | 21 | 10 | 20.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 4.69 | 4.77 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 50 | 20 | 10 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.83 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 45 | 20 | 9 | 18.6% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 122 | 114 | 566 | 2385 | 441 | 215 | 79 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 4.51 | +5.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 40 | 200 | 842 | 156 | 76 | 28 | 18.5% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 4.07 | 4.51 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Emerson Hancock (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 18.5% | 8.3% | 3.3% | — | 4.29 | 22.6% | 15.3% | 237 | -0.52 | — | — | — |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 80 |
| Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2026 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 11.6% | 9.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.25 | 15.3% | 5.2% | 167 | -1.02 | 3.92 | 272 | 80 |
| Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 80 |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 80 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 79 |
| Luke Irvine R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 79 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 79 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.14 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.27 | 4.14 | 275 | 79 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 78 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 78 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 78 |
| Mike McCarthy R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.78 | 9.4% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .280 | 5.08 | 6.2% | -3.5% | 37 | +0.30 | 4.78 | 153 | 77 |
| Mike Connolly R 2025 · 5.12 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.12 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 328 | 77 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 77 |
| Ivan Zavala R 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.51 | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.76 | 12.2% | 4.3% | 50 | +0.25 | 4.29 | 209 | 77 |
| Terance Marin R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 11.2% | 7.7% | 3.4% | .294 | 4.20 | 12.4% | 7.5% | 88 | -0.78 | 3.60 | 322 | 77 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.40 | 11.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .375 | 4.40 | 15.1% | 7.3% | 113 | -0.00 | 4.33 | 241 | 77 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.96 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 106 | 76 |
| Tony Bucciferro R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.09 | 107 | 76 |
| Mike Augliera R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.0% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 114 | 76 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2023
Service 1.343 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $2M | +0.7 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $3M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $8M | $13M | +$5M | ||