Emerson Hancock

P Seattle Mariners

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 213 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANPre-ArbFA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	29	29	155	3.95	4.65	15.9%	8.3%	1.3	K 14.5% · BB 7.8% · FIP 4.68
2025	26	MIX2 levels	33	25	135	5.01	4.27	20.4%	7.8%	1.8	K 19.1% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.31
2026	27	MLBSEA	25	25	139	3.57	3.83	22.3%	5.5%	2.6
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	16	16	96	4.50	4.53	20.4%	6.7%	1.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSEA	13	13	77	4.56	4.64	19.8%	7.0%	0.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSEA	10	10	63	4.73	4.84	19.1%	7.3%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 5.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 2.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.343First FA2031

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Arb-1$1M2029Arb-2$1M2030Arb-3$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo62

xwOBA vs54

K%51

Form4.76 ERA (proj 4.50) · K 18.8% (proj 20.4%) · BB 3.9% (proj 6.7%) · last 90d · 28 IP through Oct 27

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · David Phelps (age 28) · Brad Peacock (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.50

FIP4.53

K%20.4%

BB%6.7%

K-BB%13.6%

Proj IP96

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 96 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6295.4

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p5122.3%

xwOBA vs

p540.308

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.343 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.0	$8M	+$7M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.6	$2M	+$1.0M
2029	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.2M
2030	Arb-3	$1M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$12M	+$8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	45	179	43	17	1	100%	3.7	18.8%	10.8%	8.0%	0.6%	2.62	3.24	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	45	179	43	17	1	100%	3.7	24.0%	9.5%	14.5%	0.6%	2.62	2.61	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	98	413	92	38	16	100%	4.7	18.0%	10.1%	7.9%	5.1%	3.75	5.67	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Arkansas Travelers	21	21	98	413	92	38	16	100%	4.7	22.3%	9.2%	13.1%	3.9%	3.75	4.50	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	110	460	113	41	10	100%	4.8	21.1%	10.2%	10.9%	3.1%	4.34	4.30	+1.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	110	460	113	41	10	100%	4.8	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	2.2%	4.34	3.35	+2.8
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	661	105	55	22	100%	5.3	14.5%	7.8%	6.7%	3.3%	3.95	4.68	+1.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	155	661	105	55	22	100%	5.3	14.5%	7.8%	6.7%	3.3%	3.95	4.68	+1.3
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	155	661	105	55	22	100%	5.3	15.9%	8.3%	7.6%	3.3%	3.95	4.65	+1.3
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	135	587	120	46	20	76%	4.1	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.4%	5.01	4.31	+1.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	25	135	587	120	46	20	76%	4.1	19.1%	7.6%	11.5%	3.4%	5.01	4.31	+1.7
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	25	135	587	120	46	20	76%	4.1	20.4%	7.8%	12.6%	3.4%	5.01	4.27	+1.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.6%	3.57	3.90	+2.5
2026	27	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.6%	3.57	3.90	+2.5
2026	27	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	25	25	139	566	126	31	20	100%	5.5	22.3%	5.5%	16.8%	3.5%	3.57	3.83	+2.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			62	56	301	1266	235	84	48	90%	4.9	18.6%	6.6%	11.9%	3.8%	4.24	4.45	+3.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	16	16	96	405	83	27	14	100%	6.0	20.4%	6.7%	13.6%	3.5%	4.50	4.53	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	81	342	68	24	12	100%	6.2	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.61	4.69	+0.7
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	279	53	20	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	3.8%	4.78	4.89	+0.4
2030	31	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	53	222	41	17	9	100%	5.8	18.3%	7.6%	10.7%	4.1%	4.99	5.12	+0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	77	325	64	23	12	100%	5.9	19.8%	7.0%	12.8%	3.5%	4.56	4.64	+0.6
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	63	266	51	19	10	100%	6.3	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	3.7%	4.73	4.84	+0.4
2030	31	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	50	211	39	16	8	100%	6.2	18.3%	7.6%	10.7%	4.0%	4.93	5.06	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		94	88	491	2067	388	142	78	94%	5.2	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.8%	4.42	4.45	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	36	200	842	158	58	32	94%	5.2	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.8%	4.42	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		143	135	681	2866	539	235	99	94%	4.8	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.03	4.44	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	841	158	69	29	94%	4.8	18.8%	8.2%	10.6%	3.4%	4.03	4.44	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 45 IPFIP 3.06 → 3.17 (+0.12)K% 27.7% → 23.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.72%	—	×0.860	23.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×0.900	6.68%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.204	×1.100	2.26%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).

Result: FIP 3.06 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAATacoma Rainiers · 94 IPFIP 4.23 → 4.26 (+0.03)K% 16.7% → 14.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.71%	—	×0.860	14.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.11%	—	×0.900	8.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.142	×1.100	2.44%

Result: FIP 4.23 → 4.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAArkansas Travelers · 98 IPFIP 3.27 → 4.30 (+1.02)K% 26.0% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.03%	—	×0.810	21.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.25%	—	×1.100	10.17%
HR / BF /BF	2.19%	÷0.853	×1.200	3.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 71).

Result: FIP 3.27 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAArkansas Travelers · 98 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.67 (+1.16)K% 22.3% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.28%	—	×0.810	18.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.20%	—	×1.100	10.12%
HR / BF /BF	3.87%	÷0.909	×1.200	5.12%

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Everett AquaSox · 31 IPFIP 2.83 → 3.57 (+0.74)K% 24.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.19%	—	×0.770	18.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.48%	—	×1.150	12.06%
HR / BF /BF	0.81%	÷1.078	×1.250	0.94%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 2.83 → 3.57, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAArkansas Travelers · 14 IPFIP 2.03 → 2.50 (+0.47)K% 23.6% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.64%	—	×0.810	19.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.27%	—	×1.100	8.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.892	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.03 → 2.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Emerson Hancock (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	20.4%	6.7%	3.5%	—	4.87	19.2%	11.9%	200	+0.34	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	83
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	75
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	748	74
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	71
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	71
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	68
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	68
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	67
Victor Santos R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	28	SP	4.67	13.9%	8.1%	3.1%	.278	4.90	16.0%	7.8%	179	+0.23	4.09	602	67
Todd Ritchie R 2000 · 4.36 FIP	28	SP	4.36	15.4%	6.2%	3.2%	.301	4.29	13.2%	6.9%	369	-0.07	3.03	828	67
Jeremy Hefner R 2013 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP	4.33	17.8%	5.9%	3.6%	.277	4.64	16.8%	7.7%	98	+0.31	3.56	322	66
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	66
Armando Galarraga R 2010 · 5.06 FIP	28	SP	5.06	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	.258	6.67	14.1%	2.6%	67	+1.61	3.92	584	66
Brian Tollberg R 2001 · 4.10 FIP	28	SP	4.10	14.1%	4.4%	3.0%	.299	4.98	11.5%	5.6%	62	+0.88	4.02	297	65
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	65
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	65
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	64
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	63
Randy Wells R 2011 · 5.10 FIP	28	SP	5.10	14.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.271	4.71	9.8%	-6.3%	29	-0.39	3.71	524	63
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	85	19.1%	6.9%	1.45	4.46
Vidal Nuño ('18)	1.9	75	19.6%	6.6%	1.55	4.06
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Jim Willoughby ('71-'78, 4 WAR*)	2.8	79	16.0%*	6.2%*	1.42*	4.13*
Jerry Garvin ('77-'82, 4 WAR*)	3.0	101	19.3%*	8.4%*	1.44*	4.52*
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*