Michel Baez
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 30
RHP
6'8" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.61
FIP4.55
K%23.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP58
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p7196.0
Whiff%
p4124.0%
K%
p4521.4%
xwOBA vs
p630.299
FB+1.5
SL-0.5
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 64 | 243 | 89 | 10 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.0% | 4.2% | 22.8% | 4.2% | 2.54 | 3.67 | — |
| 2017 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 11 | 64 | 243 | 89 | 10 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 36.6% | 4.1% | 32.5% | 3.7% | 2.54 | 2.61 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 450 | 113 | 45 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 3.69 | 4.92 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 105 | 450 | 113 | 45 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 25.1% | 10.0% | 15.1% | 2.0% | 3.69 | 3.35 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 57 | 246 | 66 | 22 | 4 | 3% | 1.5 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 1.6% | 2.54 | 3.15 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 1 | 57 | 246 | 66 | 22 | 4 | 3% | 1.5 | 26.8% | 8.9% | 17.9% | 1.6% | 2.54 | 2.85 | +1.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 30.4% | 8.7% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 1.63 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 3 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 33% | 1.6 | 30.4% | 8.7% | 21.7% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 1.39 | +0.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 2 | 50 | 215 | 59 | 23 | 6 | 5% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 4.1% | 4.71 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 4 levels | 43 | 2 | 50 | 215 | 59 | 23 | 6 | 5% | 1.2 | 27.4% | 10.7% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 4.71 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 1 | 41 | 195 | 34 | 29 | 7 | 3% | 1.3 | 12.9% | 17.4% | -4.5% | 4.3% | 6.64 | 6.58 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 1 | 41 | 195 | 34 | 29 | 7 | 3% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 14.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 6.64 | 5.80 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 51 | 26 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 47 | 0 | 50 | 210 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | SD | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 3.2% | 4.69 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | SD | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.85 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 2 | 79 | 340 | 76 | 34 | 9 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 3.93 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 176 | 5 | 200 | 864 | 193 | 86 | 23 | 3% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 149 | 37 | 320 | 1372 | 292 | 148 | 48 | 25% | 2.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 3.85 | 4.59 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 93 | 23 | 200 | 857 | 183 | 92 | 30 | 25% | 2.1 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 3.85 | 4.59 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Michel Baez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.55 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.87 | 22.0% | 10.6% | 104 | +0.32 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 75 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Bryan Mitchell R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.49 | 20.6% | 12.0% | 2.9% | .305 | 5.01 | 14.4% | 3.9% | 39 | +0.52 | 2.70 | 481 | 71 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 71 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 71 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 71 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 70 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 70 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 70 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 69 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 69 |
| Blake Smith R 2024 · 3.66 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.66 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.08 | 124 | 69 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 69 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 22.4% | 11.3% | 1.22 | 4.71 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |