Theo Gillen — OGILVIE

Theo GillenOF Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION330 act + 220 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†109

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .339 / .406

PA220

HR6

SB13

K%28

BB%10

BABIP336

ISO156

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 56 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT56

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE61

scouting grade only

SPEED58

scouting grade only

DEFENSE54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.6	$18M	+$17M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.9	$18M	+$18M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.1	$18M	+$18M
2031	Arb-1	$6M	+3.1	$17M	+$13M
2032	Arb-2	$11M	+3.1	$16M	+$10M
2033	Arb-3	$15M	+3.1	$15M	+$7M
Totals		$35M		$102M	+$83M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	34	29	3	1	0	0	5	20	0	1	0	103	235	138	373	34	333	59	15	163	-17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	34	26	4	1	0	0	8	14	0	1	0	154	353	192	545	38	333	41	24	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	324	266	61	14	1	3	41	105	10	36	3	229	353	323	677	94	358	32	13	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	324	243	65	12	1	5	64	75	10	36	3	267	438	387	825	119	359	23	20	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A+	TB	—	330	292	77	11	4	10	30	106	6	32	6	264	345	432	776	168	376	32	9	330	111	+4	+4	+0	-2	+9	1.6
YTD	20	A+	TB	—	330	277	86	13	4	12	45	80	6	32	6	310	418	516	934	206	396	24	14	411	172	+27	+4	+0	-2	+9	3.9
ROS	20	A+	TB	4%	220	192	48	8	2	6	22	62	4	13	2	250	339	406	746	156	331	28	10	328	109	+2	+2	+0	-1	+6	0.9
ROS	20	MLB	TB	4%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	111	200	111	311		335	30	10	316	100	+0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
FULL	20	A+	TB	—	340	301	78	11	4	10	31	109	6	33	6	259	340	422	762	163	370	32	9	330	111	+4	+4	+0	-2	+10	1.6
TOT	20	A+	TB	—	550	484	125	19	6	16	52	168	10	45	8	258	342	421	764	163	360	31	9	329	110	+6	+6	+0	-3	+16	2.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	TB	50%	573	501	123	21	4	15	58	159	9	22	4	246	335	393	728	148	328	28	10	328	109	+6	+3	+0	-3	+16	2.2
2028	22	MLB	TB	69%	588	514	129	22	4	17	60	157	9	20	4	251	340	409	748	158	326	27	10	336	115	+10	+2	+0	-4	+17	2.6
2029	23	MLB	TB	77%	594	519	133	23	4	19	61	155	9	18	3	256	345	426	770	170	325	26	10	341	119	+13	+2	+0	-4	+17	2.9
2030	24	MLB	TB	78%	593	518	133	23	4	19	61	153	9	17	3	257	345	427	772	170	325	26	10	344	121	+14	+2	+0	-4	+17	3.1
2031	25	MLB	TB	79%	588	513	132	23	4	19	61	151	9	16	3	257	346	429	775	172	325	26	10	346	123	+15	+2	+0	-4	+17	3.1
2032	26	MLB	TB	79%	588	513	133	23	4	20	61	150	9	15	3	259	348	437	785	177	325	26	10	347	124	+16	+2	+0	-4	+17	3.1
2033	27	MLB	TB	78%	586	510	132	23	4	20	62	150	9	15	3	259	349	437	787	178	324	26	11	347	124	+16	+2	+0	-4	+17	3.1
2034	28	MLB	TB	77%	580	504	129	22	4	19	62	150	9	14	3	256	348	429	776	173	324	26	11	346	123	+15	+2	-1	-3	+16	3.0
2035	29	MLB	TB	75%	569	494	126	21	4	19	61	148	9	13	2	255	348	429	777	174	323	26	11	344	121	+14	+2	-1	-3	+16	2.8
2036	30	MLB	TB	74%	558	485	123	21	3	18	60	146	8	12	2	254	345	421	766	167	322	26	11	341	119	+12	+2	-2	-3	+16	2.5
2037	31	MLB	TB	73%	543	472	118	20	3	17	58	144	8	11	2	250	342	413	755	163	320	27	11	337	116	+10	+1	-3	-3	+15	2.1
2038	32	MLB	TB	72%	524	455	111	18	3	16	56	141	8	10	2	244	337	402	739	158	316	27	11	331	112	+7	+1	-3	-3	+15	1.7
2039	33	MLB	TB	72%	495	432	103	16	3	14	53	136	7	9	2	238	331	387	718	148	312	27	11	325	107	+4	+1	-4	-3	+14	1.2
2040	34	MLB	TB	68%	448	392	91	14	3	12	47	126	6	7	1	232	324	375	699	143	306	28	10	316	100	-0	+1	-5	-3	+13	0.6
2027	21	MLB	TB	50%	288	252	63	11	2	7	29	80	5	11	2	250	339	393	732	143	332	28	10	318	101	+0	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.8
2028	22	MLB	TB	69%	405	355	90	15	3	12	41	108	6	14	3	254	341	414	755	161	330	27	10	325	107	+3	+2	+0	-2	+11	1.4
2029	23	MLB	TB	77%	455	398	102	17	3	14	47	119	7	14	3	256	345	420	765	163	329	26	10	330	111	+6	+2	+0	-3	+13	1.8
2030	24	MLB	TB	78%	463	405	105	18	3	15	48	119	7	13	2	259	348	430	777	170	329	26	10	333	113	+7	+2	+0	-3	+13	2.0
2031	25	MLB	TB	79%	463	405	105	18	3	15	48	119	7	13	2	259	348	430	777	170	329	26	10	335	115	+8	+2	+0	-3	+13	2.0
2032	26	MLB	TB	79%	465	406	105	18	3	15	49	119	7	12	2	259	348	429	777	170	329	26	11	336	115	+8	+2	+0	-3	+13	2.1
2033	27	MLB	TB	78%	455	397	103	17	3	15	48	117	7	12	2	259	350	431	780	171	328	26	11	336	115	+8	+2	+0	-3	+13	2.0
2034	28	MLB	TB	77%	446	388	100	17	3	14	48	115	7	11	2	258	350	425	775	168	328	26	11	335	115	+7	+1	-0	-3	+13	1.9
2035	29	MLB	TB	75%	425	369	95	16	3	13	46	110	7	10	2	257	351	423	773	165	327	26	11	333	113	+6	+1	-1	-3	+12	1.6
2036	30	MLB	TB	74%	410	357	91	15	3	13	44	108	6	9	2	255	346	423	769	168	326	26	11	330	111	+5	+1	-1	-2	+12	1.4
2037	31	MLB	TB	73%	395	344	87	14	3	12	42	105	6	8	1	253	344	416	760	163	324	27	11	327	108	+4	+1	-2	-2	+11	1.2
2038	32	MLB	TB	72%	379	329	81	13	2	11	41	102	6	7	1	246	340	398	739	152	320	27	11	321	104	+2	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.9
2039	33	MLB	TB	72%	357	311	75	12	2	10	38	98	5	6	1	241	333	389	722	148	316	27	11	315	99	-0	+1	-3	-2	+10	0.6
2040	34	MLB	TB	68%	303	264	62	9	2	8	32	85	4	5	1	235	327	375	702	140	310	28	11	306	92	-3	+1	-3	-2	+9	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5719	4989	1265	210	38	174	602	1507	87	146	26	254	344	416	760	162	327	26	11	328	109	+61	+19	-13	-34	+162	19.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	144	24	4	20	68	171	10	17	3	254	344	416	760	162	327	26	10	328	109	+7	+2	-1	-4	+18	2.3
Career	—			—	8405	7309	1828	313	54	253	889	2253	132	249	42	250	342	412	754	161	325	27	11	336	115	+146	+33	-18	-50	+238	35.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	141	24	4	20	69	174	10	19	3	250	341	412	753	163	324	27	11	336	115	+11	+3	-1	-4	+18	2.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	34	26	4	1	0	0	8	14	0	1	0	154	353	192	545	38	333	41	24	282	74	-1	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	324	243	65	12	1	5	64	75	10	36	3	267	438	387	825	119	359	23	20	376	146	+17	+6	—	—	+9	3.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brett Gardnerlast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 6,577 PA	13	6,577	139	272	256	341	398	-41	+49	29.8	26.6
	/162	664	14	27	256	341	398	-4.2	+4.9	3.0	pk7: 23
#2Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	14	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
	/162	664	17	10	257	338	410	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,723	179	145	253	340	419	-34	+17	25.3	20.8
	/162	664	21	17	253	340	419	-4.0	+2.0	2.9	pk7: 16
#3José Cruz Jr.last yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,179 PA	9	4,179	153	81	247	336	445	-35	-7	17.4	17.2
	/162	664	24	13	247	336	445	-5.6	-1.1	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	8	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.2
	/162	664	22	9	247	350	440	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
#5Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	8	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	20	24	260	321	441	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
#6Raul Mondesilast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,604 PA	6	2,604	108	89	251	326	456	-20	-6	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	28	23	251	326	456	-5.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Theo Gillen (OGILVIE)	20	51→56	48→52	57→58	61	258/342/421	163	360	16	45	31%	9%	110	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Evan Carter 2023 · AA	20	47→53	45→50	55	52	228/311/364	135	289	10	21	23%	10%	92	+1.2	235/322/388	153	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.9	232/325/392	160	298	16	24	26%	10%	101	+1.1
●Corbin Carroll 2022 · A	21	49→54	45→65	56→60	46	231/302/364	133	330	12	17	32%	9%	87	+0.8	251/331/458	207	309	21	32	25%	9%	124	+3.4	249/336/472	222	286	23	37	21%	10%	126	+3.9
●Luis Robert Jr. 2018 · A	20	47→57	44→60	53→60	47	224/318/346	122	316	10	16	30%	9%	91	+1.1	226/282/366	140	328	14	22	34%	5%	80	+0.4	280/327/492	212	333	28	17	24%	5%	128	+2.7
●Michael Harris II 2022 · A	21	50→58	43→60	56→55	41	240/290/358	118	319	10	20	27%	6%	80	+0.4	276/319/451	175	335	19	21	23%	5%	118	+3.0	283/325/465	183	333	21	21	21%	5%	122	+3.0
✕Jaff Decker 2009 · A	19	53→49	43→55	53→55	59	249/353/369	120	330	10	10	25%	13%	110	+2.4	232/321/407	175	309	21	8	30%	11%	108	+2.3	213/301/403	189	279	24	8	31%	10%	97	+1.2
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	45→55	46→60	54→50	43	223/277/358	134	288	13	16	27%	6%	76	+0.0	227/293/391	164	273	19	14	24%	8%	91	+1.1	241/308/459	219	314	28	3	32%	8%	113	+2.0
●Gregory Polanco 2013 · A	21	48→55	47→60	56→55	47	239/291/374	135	277	14	23	20%	6%	85	+0.7	249/304/385	136	297	13	25	20%	7%	93	+1.3	254/325/453	200	285	22	14	19%	9%	113	+2.3
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→58	43→60	51→50	41	243/289/357	114	324	10	12	27%	6%	79	+0.3	266/308/443	177	302	21	11	19%	6%	111	+2.5	274/317/469	196	304	23	10	18%	6%	119	+2.7
●Jason Heyward 2010 · AA	20	54→60	50→55	53→50	47	268/320/429	161	307	16	9	19%	7%	111	+2.5	261/348/438	177	310	19	12	21%	11%	125	+3.5	259/351/444	185	308	20	14	22%	12%	125	+3.3
●LaMonte Wade Jr. 2016 · A	22	46→56	45→55	55→45	54	229/308/356	127	264	13	10	19%	9%	88	+0.9	237/317/348	111	278	11	8	18%	9%	90	+1.0	247/347/440	192	279	24	4	20%	12%	124	+2.4
✕Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	47→52	48→55	58→50	45	232/302/389	157	310	14	16	28%	8%	94	+1.3	239/303/395	156	305	17	9	26%	7%	96	+1.5	237/308/399	162	294	18	5	25%	8%	94	+1.1
●CJ Abrams 2021 · A	20	50→53	42→60	54→60	45	242/287/364	122	283	8	14	18%	5%	80	+0.4	248/295/367	119	308	10	25	22%	5%	85	+0.7	255/324/446	192	293	22	28	21%	7%	115	+2.5
✕Robert Hassell III 2022 · A	20	50→54	46→45	55	46	241/306/373	132	328	12	19	29%	8%	92	+1.2	220/283/318	98	320	9	16	32%	8%	67	-0.5	232/283/322	91	306	10	19	26%	6%	65	-0.4
★James Wood 2023 · A	20	54→59	47→60	53→55	44	248/322/395	147	374	14	17	35%	9%	104	+2.0	245/322/429	184	362	20	16	34%	10%	113	+2.6	269/372/493	224	358	27	18	29%	14%	142	+4.4
●Vaughn Grissom 2022 · A	21	53→63	42→50	54→55	49	251/323/361	110	311	9	12	21%	8%	95	+1.4	276/339/408	132	330	13	17	19%	7%	114	+2.7	278/342/406	128	330	12	18	19%	7%	111	+2.1
●Eddie Rosario 2012 · A	20	46→56	54→60	55→50	41	241/281/417	177	291	22	16	26%	6%	93	+1.3	247/285/390	143	309	14	10	24%	5%	86	+0.8	280/315/487	207	298	28	7	17%	5%	122	+3.2
●Pete Crow-Armstrong 2023 · A	21	50→57	49→60	54→60	39	248/298/399	151	333	17	21	30%	5%	95	+1.4	232/284/401	169	301	19	31	29%	5%	90	+1.0	245/305/447	202	294	24	36	25%	6%	107	+2.0
●Jordan Walker 2022 · A	20	51→57	50→55	54→50	40	250/302/412	162	345	17	13	32%	6%	100	+1.7	255/314/417	162	330	17	13	27%	7%	106	+2.2	250/310/409	159	318	17	11	26%	7%	101	+1.7
●J.P. Crawford 2015 · A	20	53→58	41→45	46→50	52	253/323/352	98	306	9	15	19%	9%	92	+1.2	232/301/330	98	277	8	10	18%	9%	78	+0.2	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
●Coby Mayo 2022 · A	20	49→45	49→60	55→45	47	243/313/397	153	307	17	13	26%	8%	101	+1.8	223/296/393	170	304	20	6	32%	8%	93	+1.3	221/303/414	193	290	23	4	31%	9%	99	+1.4