Jackson Merrill — OGILVIE

Jackson MerrillCF San Diego Padres

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB HR -7% Svc 2.000 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION392 act + 261 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL 64111vR 130

AVG/OBP/SLG.253 / .305 / .419

PA261

HR8

SB12

K%23

BB%7

BABIP304

ISO166

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit option yr

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT60

Whiff%

699.0%

xwOBA

840.347

POWER55

Barrel%

7111.3

Avg EV

6189.9

Bat Spd

7173.6

EYE35

Chase%

6329.2%

SPEED60

Sprint

9029.0

Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1183 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

346

837

—

wRC+

136

▶▶R

wOBA

287

363

▶▶R

ISO

134

223

▶▶R

BABIP

277

325

▶R

18.2%

20.5%

◀L

BB%

5.5%

5.7%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$6M	+0.6	$3M	-$3M
2027	Ext	$15M	+4.2	$31M	+$18M
2028	Ext	$15M	+4.3	$30M	+$17M
2029	Ext	$15M	+4.2	$27M	+$16M
2030	Ext	$15M	+4.2	$25M	+$15M
2031	Ext	$15M	+3.9	$21M	+$13M
2032	Ext	$15M	+3.6	$18M	+$10M
2033	Ext	$15M	+3.3	$16M	+$8M
2034	Ext	$15M	+2.9	$13M	+$6M
Totals		$126M		$183M	+$100M

Options · projected decision
2035	CLUB OPT	$15.0M / $0.0M buyout	EXERCISE
2036	CLUB OPT	$21.0M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	120	111	23	5	1	0	6	39	0	5	1	207	248	270	518	63	315	32	5	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	120	107	30	7	2	0	10	27	0	5	1	280	342	383	725	103	370	22	8	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	3 teams	—	348	323	88	12	4	8	20	88	1	13	5	272	317	409	726	136	349	25	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A	3 teams	—	348	315	100	14	6	7	28	65	1	13	5	317	375	467	842	149	380	19	8	369	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	511	474	122	17	3	19	27	82	2	15	4	257	300	426	726	169	272	16	5	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	2 teams	—	511	466	129	25	4	15	35	62	2	15	4	277	330	444	774	167	289	12	7	338	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	593	554	168	33	6	26	29	101	1	16	3	303	339	525	864	222	329	17	5	364	137	+25	+2	+8	+2	+17	5.4
2024	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	593	554	162	31	6	24	29	101	1	16	3	292	329	500	829	208	318	17	5	357	131	+21	+2	+8	+2	+17	5.1
2025	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	483	440	119	26	6	17	33	108	4	1	2	270	327	473	800	202	319	22	7	344	121	+12	-1	+2	+2	+14	2.9
2025	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	483	440	116	25	6	16	33	108	4	1	2	264	321	457	778	193	312	22	7	338	117	+9	-1	+2	+2	+14	2.7
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	MLB	SD	—	392	360	79	15	1	10	28	98	1	19	2	219	278	350	628	131	274	25	7	274	68	-14	+3	+1	+1	+11	0.2
YTD	23	MLB	SD	—	392	360	79	15	1	10	28	98	1	19	2	219	278	350	628	131	274	25	7	280	73	-12	+3	+1	+1	+11	0.4
ROS	23	MLB	SD	100%	261	241	61	12	2	8	17	60	1	12	2	253	305	419	723	166	307	23	7	327	108	+2	+2	+1	+1	+7	1.3
ROS	23	MLB	SD	100%	261	241	60	12	2	8	17	60	1	12	2	249	301	415	716	166	303	23	7	319	102	+1	+2	+1	+1	+7	1.2
FULL	23	MLB	SD	—	653	601	139	27	3	18	45	158	2	31	4	231	287	376	663	145	284	24	7	292	82	-14	+5	+2	+2	+19	1.4
TOT	23	MLB	SD	—	653	601	140	27	3	18	45	158	2	31	4	233	288	377	666	145	286	24	7	295	84	-12	+5	+2	+2	+19	1.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	SD	100%	640	589	157	31	6	22	43	144	3	29	4	267	320	452	771	185	316	22	7	338	117	+12	+4	+2	+2	+18	4.0
2028	25	MLB	SD	100%	627	576	155	31	6	22	43	140	3	28	4	269	323	458	781	189	316	22	7	341	119	+14	+4	+2	+2	+18	4.1
2029	26	MLB	SD	100%	615	564	152	30	6	22	43	137	3	28	4	270	325	461	786	191	316	22	7	342	120	+14	+4	+2	+2	+17	4.0
2030	27	MLB	SD	100%	603	553	149	29	6	22	43	135	2	27	4	269	324	463	787	193	316	22	7	342	120	+14	+4	+2	+2	+17	4.0
2031	28	MLB	SD	100%	593	544	145	29	5	21	42	133	2	26	4	267	321	454	775	188	316	22	7	341	119	+13	+4	+1	+2	+17	3.8
2032	29	MLB	SD	100%	581	532	141	28	5	20	42	132	2	23	4	265	321	449	770	184	315	23	7	340	118	+12	+3	+1	+2	+16	3.5
2033	30	MLB	SD	100%	569	521	138	27	5	20	41	131	2	21	3	265	321	451	772	186	314	23	7	337	116	+10	+3	-0	+2	+16	3.2
2034	31	MLB	SD	100%	556	509	133	26	5	19	40	129	2	17	3	261	318	444	762	183	312	23	7	333	113	+8	+2	-1	+2	+16	2.8
2035	32	MLB	SD	100%	545	499	129	25	5	18	39	129	2	14	2	259	315	437	752	178	309	24	7	327	108	+5	+2	-2	+2	+15	2.3
2036	33	MLB	SD	100%	505	462	116	22	4	16	36	122	2	10	2	251	308	420	728	169	304	24	7	319	102	+1	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.6
2037	34	MLB	SD	96%	458	422	103	19	4	14	32	114	1	7	1	244	299	408	706	164	297	25	7	309	95	-3	+1	-3	+2	+13	1.0
2038	35	MLB	SD	91%	402	370	86	15	3	11	28	103	1	4	1	232	288	378	667	146	289	26	7	298	86	-6	+0	-4	+1	+11	0.3
2027	24	MLB	SD	100%	640	589	155	31	6	21	43	144	3	29	4	263	317	443	760	180	312	22	7	330	111	+8	+4	+2	+2	+18	3.5
2028	25	MLB	SD	100%	627	576	152	30	6	21	43	140	3	28	4	264	318	446	765	182	312	22	7	333	113	+9	+4	+2	+2	+18	3.6
2029	26	MLB	SD	100%	615	564	149	29	6	21	43	137	3	28	4	264	320	449	768	184	312	22	7	334	114	+10	+4	+2	+2	+17	3.6
2030	27	MLB	SD	100%	603	553	147	29	6	21	43	135	2	27	4	266	321	454	775	188	312	22	7	334	114	+9	+4	+2	+2	+17	3.5
2031	28	MLB	SD	100%	593	544	142	28	5	20	42	133	2	26	4	261	316	441	758	180	312	22	7	333	113	+9	+4	+1	+2	+17	3.3
2032	29	MLB	SD	100%	581	532	139	27	5	20	42	132	2	23	4	261	318	444	761	182	311	23	7	332	112	+8	+3	+1	+2	+16	3.1
2033	30	MLB	SD	100%	569	521	136	27	5	19	41	131	2	21	3	261	317	441	759	180	310	23	7	329	110	+6	+3	-0	+2	+16	2.8
2034	31	MLB	SD	100%	556	509	132	26	5	18	40	129	2	17	3	259	316	436	752	177	308	23	7	325	107	+4	+2	-1	+2	+16	2.4
2035	32	MLB	SD	100%	545	499	126	24	5	17	39	129	2	14	2	253	309	423	732	170	305	24	7	319	103	+2	+2	-2	+2	+15	2.0
2036	33	MLB	SD	100%	505	462	113	21	4	15	36	122	2	10	2	245	302	405	707	160	300	24	7	312	97	-2	+1	-3	+2	+14	1.3
2037	34	MLB	SD	96%	437	402	96	17	4	13	31	108	1	6	1	239	295	398	693	159	293	25	7	303	90	-5	+1	-3	+2	+12	0.7
2038	35	MLB	SD	91%	366	336	77	13	3	10	26	94	1	4	1	229	287	375	662	146	286	26	7	292	81	-8	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	7974	7322	1902	370	74	264	548	1803	31	262	43	260	314	439	753	179	309	23	7	328	109	+82	+35	+8	+28	+226	38.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	597	155	30	6	22	45	147	3	21	4	260	315	441	756	181	308	23	7	328	109	+7	+3	+1	+2	+18	3.1
Career	—			—	9010	8284	2185	417	82	305	604	2027	34	296	53	264	316	444	761	181	313	22	7	331	112	+120	+38	+7	+32	+255	46.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	158	30	6	22	44	146	2	21	4	264	317	445	762	181	313	22	7	331	112	+9	+3	+1	+2	+18	3.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	120	107	30	7	2	0	10	27	0	5	1	280	342	383	725	103	370	22	8	318	102	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2022	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	219	197	64	10	3	5	19	42	1	8	5	325	387	482	869	157	393	19	9	382	151	+13	-0	—	—	+6	1.9
2022	19	ROK	ACL Padres	—	31	30	13	3	1	1	1	2	0	3	0	433	452	700	1.152	267	444	6	3	500	240	+5	+1	—	—	+1	0.7
2022	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	98	88	23	1	2	1	8	21	0	2	0	261	323	352	675	91	324	21	8	300	88	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2023	20	AA	San Antonio Missions	—	211	187	51	13	2	5	18	25	2	5	1	273	343	444	787	171	287	12	9	343	121	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2023	20	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	300	279	78	12	2	10	17	37	0	10	3	280	321	444	765	165	289	12	6	334	114	+5	+1	—	—	+8	1.4
2024	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	593	554	162	31	6	24	29	101	1	16	3	292	329	500	829	208	318	17	5	357	131	+21	+2	+8	+2	+17	5.1
2025	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	—	483	440	116	25	6	16	33	108	4	1	2	264	321	457	778	193	312	22	7	338	117	+9	-1	+2	+2	+14	2.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1076	994	278	56	12	40	62	209	5	17	5	280	325	481	806	201	315	19	6	349	125	+30	+1	+10	+4	+30	7.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ian Kinslerlast yr '19 career totals — 14 seasons, 8,299 PA	14	8,299	257	243	269	337	440	+30	+66	53.0	44.3
	/162	664	21	19	269	337	440	+2.4	+5.3	4.2	pk7: 36
#2Brandon Phillipslast yr '17 career totals — 13 seasons, 7,896 PA	13	7,896	210	209	276	320	422	+28	+83	41.5	36.8
	/162	664	18	18	276	320	422	+2.4	+7.0	3.5	pk7: 32
#3Mike Cameronlast yr '11 career totals — 12 seasons, 6,303 PA	12	6,303	234	209	251	339	451	-1	+38	40.1	36.5
	/162	664	25	22	251	339	451	-0.1	+4.0	4.2	pk7: 33
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	16	8,752	298	298	263	313	446	+13	+59	43.8	35.3
	/162	664	23	23	263	313	446	+1.0	+4.5	3.3	pk7: 27
#4Coco Crisplast yr '16 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,627 PA	15	6,627	130	309	265	327	402	+4	+51	30.8	28.0
	/162	664	13	31	265	327	402	+0.4	+5.1	3.1	pk7: 25
#5Carlos Gómezlast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,227 PA	13	5,227	145	268	252	313	411	+11	+80	28.2	26.7
	/162	664	18	34	252	313	411	+1.4	+10.2	3.6	pk7: 25
#6Ian Desmondlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,944 PA	11	5,944	181	181	263	315	427	+30	-4	25.8	24.9
	/162	664	20	20	263	315	427	+3.3	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 24

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jackson Merrill (OGILVIE)	23	60	55	60	35	233/288/377	145	286	18	31	24%	7%	84	+1.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Michael Harris II 2023 · MLB	22	55→58	52→60	58→55	42	272/318/450	179	339	19	24	25%	6%	117	+2.9	272/311/443	171	319	20	19	21%	5%	112	+2.6	267/300/430	164	305	20	18	20%	4%	102	+1.7
✕Andrés Giménez 2023 · MLB	24	55→60	51→50	56→55	43	272/338/433	162	329	18	21	22%	6%	121	+3.2	251/311/378	127	291	13	24	18%	5%	95	+1.4	238/299/349	111	274	11	26	17%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Corey Patterson 2005 · MLB	25	53→54	53→55	57→60	43	268/313/448	180	323	20	24	24%	6%	114	+2.7	251/293/403	152	296	18	32	21%	5%	94	+1.3	247/286/384	137	285	15	39	19%	4%	81	+0.4
●Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2022 · MLB	24	46→50	55→60	54→60	42	238/298/423	185	313	23	22	31%	7%	102	+1.8	255/317/463	208	319	27	28	28%	8%	120	+3.1	247/320/444	197	301	28	36	27%	9%	113	+2.3
✕Brett Lawrie 2012 · MLB	22	52→55	50→55	58→55	45	256/308/428	172	309	15	19	22%	6%	106	+2.2	258/313/410	152	294	16	14	18%	6%	104	+2.0	256/313/399	143	285	16	10	16%	6%	99	+1.2
●Luis Robert Jr. 2021 · MLB	23	46→56	54→60	56→60	38	236/289/415	179	317	21	24	32%	6%	96	+1.5	275/322/467	192	335	24	17	25%	5%	124	+3.4	280/327/492	212	333	28	17	24%	5%	128	+2.7
●B.J. Upton 2008 · MLB	23	55→60	50→60	55→60	52	268/345/422	154	340	17	31	25%	10%	121	+3.2	257/345/406	149	331	14	35	24%	12%	116	+2.8	237/314/436	198	292	23	35	26%	10%	108	+2.4
●Ozzie Albies 2019 · MLB	22	52→59	49→60	56→55	45	258/303/418	160	295	16	17	19%	6%	102	+1.8	273/324/472	199	305	22	14	18%	7%	125	+3.5	275/329/488	213	303	24	15	18%	7%	127	+3.0
★Grady Sizemore 2006 · MLB	23	55→58	53→60	54→55	50	277/339/462	185	319	18	16	19%	8%	128	+3.7	281/370/493	212	328	21	21	20%	11%	148	+5.1	277/380/497	220	320	23	25	20%	12%	144	+6.0
●Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB	23	51→54	51→55	57→55	49	251/321/420	170	331	17	20	28%	10%	110	+2.4	230/309/382	152	301	16	23	27%	10%	95	+1.4	222/303/408	186	279	21	28	27%	10%	96	+1.1
●Jason Heyward 2013 · MLB	23	51→60	55	51→50	54	259/339/449	190	304	22	15	22%	10%	125	+3.5	266/344/422	156	306	16	14	18%	10%	120	+3.1	272/353/410	138	309	13	16	16%	10%	116	+2.7
●Oneil Cruz 2022 · AAA	23	48→53	56→60	57→60	40	248/295/447	199	326	24	21	31%	6%	106	+2.2	237/300/427	190	316	23	20	31%	8%	103	+1.9	238/321/427	189	324	23	34	32%	10%	106	+1.7
●Carlos González 2010 · MLB	24	51→56	51→60	54→55	44	258/309/434	176	312	17	15	23%	6%	108	+2.3	267/327/455	188	311	21	21	21%	8%	121	+3.2	266/330/448	182	306	21	23	20%	8%	111	+2.4
●Byron Buxton 2018 · MLB	24	49→59	51→80	63→55	42	243/299/412	169	328	18	25	31%	7%	98	+1.6	237/286/424	187	304	21	22	28%	6%	97	+1.5	268/329/542	275	310	37	18	26%	7%	142	+3.3
●Trent Grisham 2021 · MLB	24	46→50	55→60	54→55	53	239/324/429	190	289	23	14	25%	11%	114	+2.7	226/317/403	177	281	20	13	26%	11%	105	+2.1	221/330/419	198	244	27	6	22%	13%	112	+1.6
●Chris Young 2007 · MLB	23	43→49	55→60	54→55	48	226/294/418	192	263	22	20	24%	8%	99	+1.7	235/302/435	200	276	23	18	23%	8%	107	+2.2	239/321/428	189	289	20	17	24%	10%	109	+2.5
●Corbin Carroll 2023 · MLB	22	49→54	58→65	62→60	46	249/327/469	221	326	23	25	30%	9%	125	+3.5	252/333/465	213	296	22	34	22%	9%	127	+3.6	249/336/472	222	286	23	37	21%	10%	126	+3.9
●Gregory Polanco 2017 · MLB	25	52→55	50→60	53→55	51	258/321/424	166	299	16	20	20%	9%	111	+2.5	252/321/439	187	291	20	14	20%	9%	115	+2.8	248/321/437	190	287	21	13	21%	9%	108	+1.5
●Kyle Tucker 2020 · MLB	23	44→54	59→65	55	44	239/296/448	209	281	27	23	26%	7%	108	+2.3	257/320/479	222	284	27	20	20%	8%	125	+3.5	267/372/486	219	277	26	25	15%	14%	139	+4.0
✕Peter Bourjos 2012 · MLB	25	51→56	48→50	61→60	43	251/300/404	153	304	13	25	22%	5%	96	+1.5	239/298/368	129	306	11	16	25%	6%	87	+0.8	240/282/379	139	307	10	8	24%	5%	78	+0.1