Jackson Merrill

CF San Diego Padres
Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB HR +5% Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
MLB40-MANExtFA 2037
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WAR
202421MLBSD593.292/.329/.50024161304.7
202522MLBSD483.264/.321/.4571611172.4
202623MLBSD664.254/.304/.44026271052.6
2027PROJ24MLBSD614.262/.309/.45124271133.1
2028PROJ25MLBSD614.262/.310/.45425271143.2
2029PROJ26MLBSD614.262/.310/.45425261143.2
Last 3 seasons WAR 9.7  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 9.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service3.000First FA2037Options2
2027Ext$15M2028Ext$15M2029Ext$15M2030Ext$15M2031Ext$15M2032Ext$15M2033Ext$15M2034Ext$15M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
xwOBA90
Speed90
Barrel%77
Avg EV72
Bat Spd71
Form.272/.312/.467 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .265/.310/.455
CompsMichael Harris II (age 23) · Andrés Giménez (age 24) · Oneil Cruz (age 23)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†vL 95113vR 120
AVG/OBP/SLG.262 / .309 / .451
PA614
HR24
SB27
K%23
BB%6
BABIP305
ISO188
MLB%100%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +9.5 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+9BATRUN: +5.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+5RUNFLD: +2.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+2FLDPOS: +2.2 runs (Positional adjustment)+2POSREP: +13.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+13REPTotal WAR: +2.80+2.8WAR
0.02.04.02.83.23.23.02.72.32.01.427282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$45M ctrl surplus
Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 60 / POW 55
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT60
xAVG
840.278
POWER55
Barrel%
7712.2
Avg EV
7290.6
Bat Spd
7173.6
EYE35
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
9029.0
Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ
K%22%▲22% over 111 PA (60d) · proj 23%
BB%5%▼5% over 111 PA (60d) · proj 6%
ISO.196·.204 over 103 AB (60d) · proj .190
HR/BB5.3%·5.0% over 80 BBE (60d) · proj 5.5%
BABIP.317▲.382 over 76 BIP (60d) · proj .311
SLASH.272/.312/.467·proj .265/.310/.455
Platoon Splits2024-2026 · 1183 PA
vs LHP
vs RHP
Edge
PA
346
837
—
wRC+
81
132
▶▶R
wOBA
287
363
▶▶R
ISO
134
223
▶▶R
BABIP
277
325
▶R
K%
18.2%
20.5%
◀L
BB%
5.5%
5.7%
▶R
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Arb-1
MLB Debut   2024
Service   3.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
OPT
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Ext$15M+2.8$24M+$9M
2028Ext$15M+3.2$28M+$14M
2029Ext$15M+3.2$26M+$14M
2030Ext$15M+3.0$22M+$11M
2031Ext$15M+2.7$17M+$7M
2032Ext$15M+2.3$13M+$4M
2033Ext$15M+2.0$10M+$2M
2034Ext$15M+1.4$7M-$0.6M
Totals $120M $145M +$60M
Options · projected decision
2035CLUB OPT$15.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE
2036CLUB OPT$21.0M / $0.0M buyoutDECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202118 ROKACL Padres — 120107 30720 10270 51 280342383725 103370 228 318 47 — — — — — —
202219 ALake Elsinore Storm — 219197 641035 19421 85 325387482869 157393 199 382 103 — — — — — —
202219 ROKACL Padres — 3130 13311 120 30 4334527001.152 267444 63 500 137 — — — — — —
202219 INTLPeoria Javelinas — 9888 23121 8210 20 261323352675 91324 218 300 89 — — — — — —
202320 AASan Antonio Missions — 211187 511325 18252 51 273343444787 171287 129 343 90 — — — — — —
202320 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps — 300279 7812210 17370 103 280321444765 165289 126 334 93 — — — — — —
202421 MLBSan Diego Padres — 593554 16231624 291011 163 292329500829 208318 175 357 130 +21 +2 +8 +2 +13 4.7
202522 MLBSan Diego Padres — 483440 11625616 331084 12 264321457778 193312 227 338 117 +10 -1 +2 +2 +10 2.4
202623 MLBSan Diego Padres — 664613 15626526 411603 274 254304440745 186302 246 325 105 +4 +4 +1 +2 +14 2.6
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 17401607 434821766 1033698 449 270317465783 195311 216 340 116 +33 +5 +10 +6 +38 9.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202118 ROK MLEACL Padres — 120111 23510 6390 51 207248270518 63314 325 237 47 — — — — — —
202219 A MLELake Elsinore Storm — 219202 58834 14591 85 287336416752 129377 276 320 103 — — — — — —
202219 ROK MLEACL Padres — 3130 11211 130 30 367387600987 233356 103 371 137 — — — — — —
202320 AA MLESan Antonio Missions — 211191 461025 14312 51 241300393692 152253 157 301 90 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLEFort Wayne TinCaps — 300283 769210 13460 103 269301420721 152280 154 305 93 — — — — — —
202421 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 593555 16433623 281011 163 295330501831 205318 175 360 130 +21 +2 +8 +2 +13 4.7
202522 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 483441 11927616 321084 12 270325467792 197312 227 341 117 +10 -1 +2 +2 +10 2.4
202623 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 664617 15828525 371603 274 256301439741 183302 246 324 105 +4 +4 +1 +2 +14 2.6
202118 ROK MLEACL Padres — 120111 23510 6390 51 207248270518 63315 325 237 47 — — — — — —
202118 ROK RAWACL Padres — 120107 30720 10270 51 280342383725 103370 228 318 47 — — — — — —
202219 A MLE3 teams — 348323 951457 20861 135 294337433771 139379 256 326 107 — — — — — —
202219 A RAW3 teams — 348315 1001467 28651 135 317375467842 149380 198 369 107 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 511474 12119315 27772 154 255298403701 148273 155 303 91 — — — — — —
202320 A+ RAW2 teams — 511466 12925415 35622 154 277330444774 167289 127 338 91 — — — — — —
202421 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 593555 16433623 281011 163 295330501831 205323 175 360 130 +21 +2 +8 +2 +13 4.7
202421 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 593554 16231624 291011 163 292329500829 208318 175 357 130 +21 +2 +8 +2 +13 4.7
202522 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 483441 11927616 321084 12 270325467792 197320 227 341 117 +10 -1 +2 +2 +10 2.4
202522 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 483440 11625616 331084 12 264321457778 193312 227 338 117 +10 -1 +2 +2 +10 2.4
202623 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 664617 15828525 371603 274 256301439741 183306 246 324 105 +4 +4 +1 +2 +14 2.6
202623 MLB RAWSan Diego Padres — 664613 15626526 411603 274 254304440745 186302 246 325 105 +4 +4 +1 +2 +14 2.6
202118 ROK MLEACL Padres — 120113 23510 6390 51 204248265513 62314 325 237 47 — — — — — —
202219 A MLE3 teams — 348324 951457 20861 135 293337432769 139374 256 326 107 — — — — — —
202320 A+ MLE2 teams — 511477 12119315 27772 154 254298400699 147269 155 303 91 — — — — — —
202421 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 593559 16433623 281011 163 293330497828 204318 175 360 130 — — — — — —
202522 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 483444 11927616 321084 12 268325464789 196312 227 341 117 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 664619 15828525 371603 274 255301438739 183302 246 324 105 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 593559 16433623 281011 163 293330497828 204318 175 360 130 — — — — — —
202522 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 483444 11927616 321084 12 268325464789 196312 227 341 117 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLESan Diego Padres — 664619 15828525 371603 274 255301438739 183302 246 324 105 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLESD 100% 611568 15127524 351413 275 265312455767 190311 236 335 113 +9 +3 +2 +2 +13 2.8
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXSD 100% 614570 14925524 361423 275 262309451760 190305 236 332 113 +9 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLESD 100% 614570 15127524 361413 275 266313458771 192311 236 337 114 +10 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.2
202926 MLB MLESD 100% 614570 15127524 361413 265 266313457770 192311 236 337 114 +10 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.2
203027 MLB MLESD 100% 606562 14826523 361403 255 265312455767 190311 236 335 113 +9 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.0
203128 MLB MLESD 100% 592549 14425523 351383 225 263310450761 188310 236 333 111 +8 +2 +1 +2 +13 2.7
203229 MLB MLESD 100% 571531 13824521 331352 184 261308445752 184309 246 329 109 +6 +2 +0 +2 +12 2.3
203330 MLB MLESD 100% 555516 13223420 321332 153 258304437741 179307 246 325 106 +4 +2 -0 +2 +12 2.0
203431 MLB MLESD 100% 536498 12722419 311302 93 254299427726 174304 246 318 102 +1 +1 -1 +2 +12 1.4
203532 MLB MLESD 100% 512476 11820417 291272 52 248292414707 166300 256 310 96 -2 +0 -2 +2 +11 0.9
203633 MLB MLESD 100% 476446 10718315 261211 11 241284398682 157294 255 300 89 -6 -0 -3 +2 +10 0.3
203734 MLB MLESD 100% 419393 9014312 221091 11 232274379652 147287 265 288 81 -10 -0 -4 +1 +9 -0.3
202825 MLB CTXSD 100% 614570 15025525 361413 275 262310454764 191305 236 334 114 +10 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.2
202926 MLB CTXSD 100% 614570 15025525 361413 265 262310454763 191305 236 334 114 +10 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.2
203027 MLB CTXSD 100% 606562 14725524 361403 255 261309451760 190305 236 332 113 +9 +3 +2 +2 +13 3.0
203128 MLB CTXSD 100% 592549 14324523 351383 225 259307447754 187304 236 330 111 +8 +2 +1 +2 +13 2.7
203229 MLB CTXSD 100% 571531 13723522 331352 184 257304441745 184303 246 326 109 +6 +2 +0 +2 +12 2.3
203330 MLB CTXSD 100% 555516 13222421 321332 153 254301433734 179301 246 322 106 +4 +2 -0 +2 +12 2.0
203431 MLB CTXSD 100% 536498 12521419 311302 93 250296424720 173299 246 316 102 +1 +1 -1 +2 +12 1.4
203532 MLB CTXSD 100% 512476 11819418 291272 52 245289411700 166294 256 307 96 -2 +0 -2 +2 +11 0.9
203633 MLB CTXSD 100% 476446 10617316 261211 11 238281395676 157289 255 297 89 -6 -0 -3 +2 +10 0.3
203734 MLB CTXSD 100% 419393 9013313 221091 11 229271375646 146282 265 285 81 -10 -0 -4 +1 +9 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 72356718 173229660272 419168430 19343 258304441746 183304 236 325 106 +64 +21 +9 +26 +157 28.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650604 15527524 381513 174 257304437741 180303 236 325 106 +6 +2 +1 +2 +14 2.5
Career— MLE — 88288202 213737974308 502202836 25358 261306437744 177309 236 325 106 +73 +25 +11 +28 +170 31.4
/ 162G— MLE — 650604 15728523 371493 194 260306437743 177307 236 325 106 +6 +2 +1 +2 +14 2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 300 PAwOBA .328 → .305 (−23)K% 12.3% → 15.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.33%÷1.014×1.270——15.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.67%÷0.983×0.710—×1.0424.26%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×1.0420.00%
Singles /BIP22.31%÷0.956×0.920×1.017×1.04222.76%
Doubles /BIP4.96%÷1.118×0.810×1.017×1.0423.81%
Triples /BIP0.83%÷1.150×0.850×1.017×1.0420.65%
Home runs /BIP4.13%÷0.848×0.800—×1.0424.06%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .328 → .305; ISO .165 → .149; BABIP .289 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AASan Antonio Missions · 211 PAwOBA .339 → .301 (−38)K% 11.8% → 14.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA11.85%÷0.987×1.220——14.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.53%÷0.927×0.700—×1.0506.77%
HBP% /PA0.95%—×0.870—×1.0500.87%
Singles /BIP19.14%÷0.986×0.920×0.950×1.05017.81%
Doubles /BIP8.02%÷1.116×0.840×0.950×1.0506.03%
Triples /BIP1.23%÷1.010×0.940×0.950×1.0501.15%
Home runs /BIP3.09%÷0.820×0.800—×1.0503.16%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 97, 2B 123, 3B 102, K 97, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .339 → .301; ISO .171 → .156; BABIP .287 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 219 PAwOBA .372 → .320 (−52)K% 19.2% → 27.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.18%÷0.968×1.360——26.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.68%÷0.992×0.690—×1.0456.31%
HBP% /PA0.46%—×0.780—×1.0450.37%
Singles /BIP29.68%÷1.020×0.920×1.050×1.04529.39%
Doubles /BIP6.45%÷1.115×0.830×1.050×1.0455.27%
Triples /BIP1.94%÷1.000×0.910×1.050×1.0451.93%
Home runs /BIP3.23%÷0.938×0.800—×1.0452.87%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .372 → .320; ISO .157 → .131; BABIP .393 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Padres · 31 PAwOBA .485 → .371 (−114)K% 6.5% → 9.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA6.45%÷0.984×1.440——9.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA3.23%÷1.015×0.620—×1.0081.98%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP28.57%÷0.965×0.820—×1.00824.46%
Doubles /BIP10.71%÷1.016×0.720—×1.0087.65%
Triples /BIP3.57%÷1.000×0.720—×1.0082.59%
Home runs /BIP3.57%÷1.081×0.780—×1.0082.60%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .485 → .371; ISO .267 → .189; BABIP .444 → .356. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ROKACL Padres · 120 PAwOBA .313 → .237 (−76)K% 22.5% → 32.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.50%÷1.000×1.440——32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.33%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0225.28%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Singles /BIP26.25%÷1.000×0.820×1.050×1.02223.11%
Doubles /BIP8.75%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×1.0226.76%
Triples /BIP2.50%÷1.000×0.720×1.050×1.0221.93%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .313 → .237; ISO .103 → .074; BABIP .370 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .