Jackson Merrill — OGILVIE

Jackson MerrillCF San Diego Padres

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 195 lbs MLB HR +13%BB +8% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 4.6 · 2028

wRC+†vL 60109vR 125

AVG/OBP/SLG.280 / .328 / .473

PA593

HR21

SB16

K%20

BB%6

xwOBA.325

Barrel%12.9%

MLB%100%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

60→60

PWR

55→55

SPD

60→60

EYE

42↘35

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.0peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$2M	+3.3	$26M	+$24M
2027	Arb-2	$7M	+4.3	$35M	+$28M
2028	Arb-3	$9M	+4.6	$39M	+$30M
2029	Arb-4	$11M	+4.6	$40M	+$29M
2030	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+4.6	$41M	+$20M
2031	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+4.4	$41M	+$20M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+4.1	$39M	+$18M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+3.8	$37M	+$16M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+3.3	$33M	+$12M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+2.8	$29M	+$8M
Totals		$156M		$363M	+$207M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Padres	120	111	23	5	1	0	6	39	0	5	1	.207	.248	.270	.518	.063	.315	32	5	.232	36	-9	+1	+0	+0	+3	-0.4
2022	19	A	3 teams	348	323	91	13	4	7	20	85	1	13	5	.282	.326	.412	.737	.130	.361	24	6	.317	101	+0	+1	+0	+1	+10	1.2
2023	20	A+	2 teams	511	475	116	19	3	14	26	79	2	15	4	.244	.286	.385	.672	.141	.263	15	5	.288	79	-12	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.6
2024	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	593	554	166	31	7	22	29	101	1	16	3	.300	.336	.500	.836	.200	.330	17	5	.352	128	+18	+2	+8	+2	+17	4.8
2025	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	483	440	117	28	6	14	33	108	4	1	2	.266	.323	.452	.775	.186	.319	22	7	.330	110	+6	-1	+2	+2	+14	2.3
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	23	MLB	San Diego Padres	106	95	20	6	0	3	8	26	1	5	0	.211	.279	.368	.647	.158	.258	25	8	.275	69	-4	+1	+1	+0	+3	0.2
ROS	23	MLB	SD	487	450	121	26	5	17	31	102	3	11	1	.269	.320	.462	.782	.193	.310	21	6	.339	118	+10	+2	+3	+2	+14	3.1
TOT	23	MLB	SD	593	545	141	32	5	20	39	128	4	16	1	.259	.313	.446	.759	.187	.303	22	7	.328	109	+6	+3	+4	+2	+17	3.3
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB	SD	605	556	150	32	6	21	40	94	4	14	2	.270	.323	.462	.786	.192	.289	16	7	.345	122	+15	+2	+4	+2	+17	4.1
2028	25	MLB	SD	610	559	152	32	6	22	42	93	4	14	1	.272	.327	.469	.796	.197	.290	15	7	.348	124	+17	+2	+4	+2	+17	4.4
2029	26	MLB	SD	610	558	152	32	6	22	43	93	4	14	1	.272	.329	.470	.798	.197	.290	15	7	.350	126	+18	+2	+4	+2	+17	4.5
2030	27	MLB	SD	605	553	151	32	6	22	43	93	4	14	1	.273	.330	.472	.802	.199	.290	15	7	.350	126	+18	+2	+4	+2	+17	4.4
2031	28	MLB	SD	597	545	147	31	5	22	43	93	4	12	1	.270	.328	.466	.794	.196	.290	16	7	.349	125	+17	+2	+3	+2	+17	4.2
2032	29	MLB	SD	585	533	143	30	5	21	43	93	4	11	0	.268	.328	.462	.789	.193	.289	16	7	.347	123	+15	+2	+2	+2	+17	4.0
2033	30	MLB	SD	573	522	139	29	5	20	42	93	4	10	0	.266	.326	.456	.782	.190	.288	16	7	.343	121	+14	+2	+2	+2	+16	3.6
2034	31	MLB	SD	558	509	134	28	5	19	41	93	3	7	0	.263	.322	.450	.772	.187	.287	17	7	.340	118	+11	+1	+1	+2	+16	3.2
2035	32	MLB	SD	539	492	128	27	5	18	39	93	3	4	0	.260	.318	.445	.763	.185	.285	17	7	.335	114	+9	+1	+0	+2	+15	2.7
2036	33	MLB	SD	509	464	118	25	4	16	37	91	3	2	0	.254	.313	.429	.742	.175	.284	18	7	.329	110	+6	+0	-1	+2	+14	2.2
2037	34	MLB	SD	462	423	106	22	4	14	33	86	3	1	0	.251	.309	.421	.730	.170	.282	19	7	.322	105	+2	+0	-2	+2	+13	1.6
2038	35	MLB	SD	406	372	91	19	3	12	29	80	2	0	0	.245	.303	.409	.711	.164	.279	20	7	.314	98	-1	+0	-3	+1	+12	0.9
2039	36	MLB	SD	346	317	75	15	3	9	24	72	2	0	0	.237	.294	.388	.682	.151	.276	21	7	.304	91	-4	+0	-4	+1	+10	0.3
2040	37	MLB	SD	282	260	59	12	2	7	19	61	1	0	0	.227	.282	.369	.651	.142	.272	22	7	.293	83	-6	+0	-5	+1	+8	-0.2
2041	38	MLB	SD	212	195	44	9	2	5	14	48	1	0	0	.226	.281	.369	.650	.144	.267	23	7	.282	74	-6	+0	-6	+1	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10041	9211	2423	497	93	324	677	1790	57	164	22	.263	.317	.443	.760	.180	.293	18	7	.332	112	+139	+24	+16	+36	+284	50.9
/ 162G	—			650	596	157	32	6	21	44	116	4	11	1	.263	.318	.443	.761	.180	.294	18	7	.332	112	+9	+2	+1	+2	+18	3.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	ACL Padres	120	107	30	7	2	0	10	27	0	5	1	.280	.342	.383	.725	.103	.370	22	8	.318	102	+0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2022	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	219	197	64	10	3	5	19	42	1	8	5	.325	.387	.482	.869	.157	.393	19	9	.382	151	+13	-0	—	—	+6	1.9
2022	19	ROK	ACL Padres	31	30	13	3	1	1	1	2	0	3	0	.433	.452	.700	1.152	.267	.444	6	3	.500	240	+5	+1	—	—	+1	0.7
2022	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	98	88	23	1	2	1	8	21	0	2	0	.261	.323	.352	.675	.091	.324	21	8	.300	88	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2023	20	AA	San Antonio Missions	211	187	51	13	2	5	18	25	2	5	1	.273	.343	.444	.787	.171	.287	12	9	.343	121	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2023	20	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	300	279	78	12	2	10	17	37	0	10	3	.280	.321	.444	.765	.165	.289	12	6	.334	114	+5	+1	—	—	+8	1.4
2024	21	MLB	San Diego Padres	593	554	162	31	6	24	29	101	1	16	3	.292	.329	.500	.829	.208	.318	17	5	.357	131	+21	+2	+8	+2	+17	5.1
2025	22	MLB	San Diego Padres	483	440	116	25	6	16	33	108	4	1	2	.264	.321	.457	.778	.193	.312	22	7	.338	117	+9	-1	+2	+2	+14	2.7
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			1076	994	278	56	12	40	62	209	5	17	5	.280	.325	.481	.806	.201	.315	19	6	.349	125	+30	+1	+10	+4	+30	7.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jackson Merrill (OGILVIE)	23	60	55	60	35	.266/.317/.452	.187	.289	20	13	16%	6%	118	+2.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Ozzie Albies 2020 · MLB	23	54→59	53→60	56→55	48	.274/.324/.459	.185	.306	19	15	18%	6%	121	+3.2	.263/.314/.461	.198	.292	23	14	18%	7%	118	+3.0	.254/.310/.461	.206	.273	25	13	18%	7%	112	+2.4
★Grady Sizemore 2006 · MLB	23	55→58	52→60	53→55	50	.275/.338/.459	.184	.317	18	16	19%	8%	127	+3.6	.281/.368/.493	.212	.328	21	21	20%	11%	147	+5.0	.277/.380/.497	.220	.320	23	25	20%	12%	144	+6.0
✕Andrés Giménez 2023 · MLB	24	54→60	52→50	56→55	43	.269/.335/.437	.168	.325	19	22	23%	6%	121	+3.2	.254/.315/.386	.132	.295	14	24	19%	5%	99	+1.7	.241/.301/.348	.107	.278	11	26	17%	5%	80	+0.3
●Francisco Lindor 2018 · MLB	24	55→60	52→65	53→55	53	.277/.335/.454	.177	.295	19	15	14%	8%	124	+3.4	.271/.337/.489	.218	.280	27	17	14%	8%	135	+4.2	.269/.344/.476	.207	.298	26	22	19%	9%	130	+4.4
●Juan Uribe 2002 · MLB	23	55→65	53→60	61→50	42	.274/.309/.466	.192	.317	17	8	20%	4%	117	+2.9	.253/.297/.402	.149	.297	13	10	19%	5%	95	+1.4	.287/.336/.431	.144	.339	16	3	19%	6%	114	+1.9
✕Rocco Baldelli 2007 · MLB	25	56→61	53→55	54→55	44	.286/.329/.469	.184	.320	20	15	18%	5%	126	+3.5	.256/.312/.441	.185	.301	22	11	23%	6%	112	+2.6	.227/.295/.401	.174	.268	24	7	25%	7%	92	+0.3
●Howie Kendrick 2007 · MLB	24	59→64	51→55	55→50	41	.295/.329/.472	.177	.335	16	17	18%	3%	127	+3.6	.295/.328/.438	.143	.346	12	14	18%	4%	117	+2.9	.283/.327/.442	.159	.325	15	15	17%	5%	114	+2.6
●Jason Heyward 2013 · MLB	23	50→60	54→55	50	55	.256/.341/.443	.186	.299	22	15	22%	11%	124	+3.4	.263/.342/.425	.162	.302	18	14	18%	10%	120	+3.1	.272/.352/.414	.142	.308	14	16	16%	10%	116	+2.7
●Michael Harris II 2023 · MLB	22	54→57	50→55	58→55	42	.266/.313/.433	.167	.335	17	24	25%	5%	110	+2.4	.269/.309/.438	.169	.317	19	19	21%	5%	109	+2.4	.264/.298/.428	.164	.301	20	18	19%	4%	100	+1.6
●Bo Bichette 2021 · MLB	23	53→63	51→60	52→55	44	.265/.310/.440	.175	.319	17	21	23%	6%	111	+2.5	.295/.338/.475	.180	.349	22	16	21%	6%	131	+3.9	.305/.346/.482	.177	.358	22	13	20%	5%	135	+4.6
★Alex Gordon 2008 · MLB	24	50→60	53→55	52→50	47	.253/.325/.436	.182	.308	20	15	24%	8%	116	+2.8	.250/.334/.418	.168	.307	18	11	23%	10%	115	+2.8	.274/.357/.453	.179	.334	17	10	22%	10%	130	+4.4
✕Brett Lawrie 2013 · MLB	23	53→56	49→55	55	46	.264/.315/.426	.162	.310	14	18	20%	6%	108	+2.3	.255/.309/.407	.152	.290	17	11	18%	6%	102	+1.8	.250/.300/.408	.158	.303	19	6	24%	6%	96	+1.0
●Corey Patterson 2004 · MLB	24	52→55	50→55	56→60	40	.262/.297/.424	.162	.313	17	19	22%	4%	101	+1.8	.256/.300/.424	.168	.310	19	26	23%	5%	102	+1.9	.250/.295/.411	.161	.298	19	33	23%	5%	91	+1.1
●Matt Murton 2006 · MLB	24	59→64	49→50	53→50	49	.292/.343/.445	.152	.329	17	16	17%	7%	125	+3.5	.284/.345/.429	.145	.316	14	9	14%	8%	121	+3.2	.275/.341/.407	.132	.305	12	6	14%	8%	111	+1.9
●Elijah Dukes 2007 · AAA	23	51	51→55	51→50	48	.258/.317/.421	.163	.298	18	15	20%	7%	109	+2.4	.243/.335/.417	.174	.287	19	14	21%	11%	115	+2.8	.236/.344/.412	.176	.277	18	13	21%	13%	114	+1.7
●Kelly Johnson 2006 · MLB	24	49→58	52→55	52→50	56	.250/.332/.425	.175	.287	18	10	20%	11%	116	+2.8	.267/.349/.440	.173	.314	16	10	19%	11%	126	+3.5	.264/.339/.436	.172	.309	16	11	19%	10%	117	+2.8
●Colby Rasmus 2010 · MLB	23	44→54	51→60	50	48	.230/.295/.391	.162	.266	19	11	22%	8%	92	+1.2	.245/.316/.425	.180	.297	21	9	24%	9%	110	+2.4	.237/.305/.454	.217	.309	28	3	32%	8%	109	+1.8
✕Oscar Taveras 2014 · AAA	22	56→55	49→55	52→45	44	.277/.314/.439	.162	.306	16	9	16%	4%	111	+2.5	.251/.288/.374	.123	.284	12	6	16%	5%	84	+0.6	.254/.290/.364	.110	.286	11	1	15%	4%	82	+0.4
●A.J. Pierzynski 2001 · MLB	24	52→62	49→55	52→40	49	.261/.322/.411	.151	.293	16	10	17%	7%	108	+2.3	.284/.325/.430	.146	.317	11	4	14%	4%	114	+2.7	.291/.337/.432	.141	.309	11	2	9%	4%	112	+2.1
●Luis Robert Jr. 2022 · MLB	24	53→58	57→60	54→60	41	.270/.321/.470	.201	.338	24	20	27%	6%	124	+3.4	.269/.317/.463	.194	.328	25	18	25%	5%	120	+3.1	.253/.301/.449	.196	.313	26	22	28%	5%	106	+1.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)